US and PRC relationship & India

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Jul 2010 07:56

Bet, this man got depressed after spending a day here .
http://www.parapundit.com/archives/007329.html
America To Become Pawn In Next Great Game?

America's standing relative to other major nations is in decline. Some of that decline was unavoidable because China and India have so many people and they are industrializing. Other aspects of the decline are self-inflicted by elites who insist upon an immigration policy which will substantially lower per capita GDP in coming decades. Steve Sailer speculates on whether the US will align with China or India and how Chinese, Indian, and Jewish ethnics in the US will push the US in one or the other direction. My guess is we'll choose a course that is contrary to our best interests. That's been the intensifying pattern in recent decades. The punditocracy will continue to offer really impressive rationalizations for why we should do stupid things abroad and domestically. Such is life in a declining empire.
, the obvious card to play in the coming China vs. India global struggle is for influence and control over the fading Anglo-Euro world, especially because Anglos don't like to think about themselves being played.
When looked at from this perspective, India's chances against China in 2100 don't look so awful. Indians are better at learning English, and better at marketing ideas in English than Chinese. (One American marketing consultant in China has said that to Chinese factory owners, "marketing" means shouting "Real cheap! You buy now!")
Let's look at the leading Anglosphere countries and which way they are likely to tip (or be tipped):
Australia: China
Canada: I don't know. It could be close.
Britain: India
America: That's the big question
There are lots of Chinese in America. The Chinese have lots of money and will have even more in the future. Over several generations, the emotional distinctions between China and their neighbors and/or enemies like Vietnam, Korea, and Japan might fade, leaving a unified East Asian v. South Asian division from the perspective of the U.S.
On the other hand, I have a vague sense that the East Asians in America might wind up playing the role of Midwestern German-Americans in early 20th Century America, who were outmaneuvered by Anglophilic Eastern elites

Steve goes on to speculate on how the Jews will try to win favor with India and China. I do not think the Jews can afford to ally with one of those two countries against the other one. India is closer to Israel but China will be much wealthier. He also looks at a Jewish organization that looks at which long term strategies are best for Jews. What's left of the Anglosphere ought to do the same for themselves even though other ethnic groups would prefer that we didn't.

AnimeshP · Post by **AnimeshP** » 12 Jul 2010 08:47

Prem wrote:Bet, this man got depressed after spending a day here .
http://www.parapundit.com/archives/007329.html
America To Become Pawn In Next Great Game?

Don't know about this man .. but I did get depressed reading the comments on the Steve sailer site which has the original article ...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Jul 2010 10:09

X-post..

SSridhar wrote:Call for China-India initiative for Pakistan's Stability
A senior member of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Advisory Group has proposed that China and India cooperate for the stability of Pakistan in the present circumstances.

The Ministry's Foreign Policy Advisory Group Member, Wu Jianmin, told TheHindu here his intention was to “present this idea to the Chinese government in due course.” He said this on the sidelines of a conference on “the role of the media in India-China relations,” organised by the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies and its Nalanda Sriwijaya Centre, the National University of Singapore, and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. The participants included India's former Ambassador to China, C. V. Ranganathan, and author Sunanda K. Datta-Ray.

On whether the idea of a China-India initiative for the stability of Pakistan would at all fly, Mr. Wu, formerly a career diplomat, said: “The rise of Asia requires peace and stability in this region. So, you can see that China's interest and the Indian interest coincide. … We [in China] do not regard Pakistan as a counterweight to India. It is not propaganda: you [only] have to put yourself in China's shoes. .... For the first time since 1840, we have a chance to modernise China. To achieve our goal, what we need is peace abroad and stability at home.”

“Trust-building is now going on between China and India, and our common interests keep growing in the economic area, in trade and in other areas.” Despite “some obstacles,” the two countries “at the leadership level, are [also] very clear that they need each other.”

About the risk that Islamabad might see any China-India initiative as a ploy to “fix Pakistan,” he said: “We [China] can tell our Pakistani friends. At the same time, India and Pakistan have their own channel of communication.” On what he termed as “rumours” relating to the China-Pakistan moves in the civil nuclear domain, he said Beijing “abides by the international rules and will not go beyond them.”

Quite a change in PRC attitudes. He is promising a few things if India does somethings. No bad idea to follow up. Will post in the US-PRC India thread too.

naren · Post by **naren** » 12 Jul 2010 12:00

Prem wrote:Bet, this man got depressed after spending a day here .
http://www.parapundit.com/archives/007329.html
America To Become Pawn In Next Great Game?
There are lots of Chinese in America.

I dont think they have as much clout as the Indian Americans do ? AFAIK, Chinese Americans are popular for nails & spa, malish palish and lunch special.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 Jul 2010 12:14

naren wrote: Bet, this man got depressed after spending a day here .
http://www.parapundit.com/archives/007329.html
America To Become Pawn In Next Great Game?
There are lots of Chinese in America.
I dont think they have as much clout as the Indian Americans do ? AFAIK, Chinese Americans are popular for nails & spa, malish palish and lunch special.

Like these Chinese americans
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Chu

Steven Chu
12th United States Secretary of Energy
Incumbent
Assumed office
January 21, 2009[1]
President Barack Obama
Preceded by Samuel Bodman
Born February 28, 1948 (age 62)
St. Louis, Missouri
Birth name Steven Chu (朱棣文, Zhū Dìwén)[2]
Spouse(s) Jean Fetter (1997-present), Lisa Chu-Thielbar (divorced)
Alma mater University of Rochester (B.A./B.S.)
University of California, Berkeley (Ph.D.)
Profession Scientist (Experimental physics) (Nobel Laureate 1997)
Website Homepage of the Secretary of Energy
Steven Chu (born February 28, 1948)[3] is an American physicist and currently the 12th United States Secretary of Energy. Chu is known for his research at Bell Labs in cooling and trapping of atoms with laser light, which won him the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1997.[3] At the time of his appointment as Energy Secretary, he was a professor of physics and molecular and cellular biology at the University of California, Berkeley and the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where his research was concerned primarily with the study of biological systems at the single molecule level.[1] Previously, he had been a professor of physics at Stanford University.

naren · Post by **naren** » 12 Jul 2010 12:31

^^^

my bad for underestimating. The Chini profs I have seen are timid and duck in the corner, while Desi profs get so cocky and boss others.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Jul 2010 18:25

^^^ DavidB By your definition, if Mao was a terrorist and Japanese also called him so and you agree who am I to dispute that. But in Tibet China is an occupation force and it does not matter what you call Dalai lama and how much chinese infrastructure in Tibet his followers destroy, they will remain freedom fighters.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 12 Jul 2010 19:07

CN Yang, TD Lee, CK Kao, DC Tsui all Nobel Laureates in Physics. There is only one Indian origin person the famous S Chandrasekhar in comparison.

For the achievers list with big names (non-Nobel variety), there are likely many more Chinese origin than Indian origin people who matter in Physics. Let us give where credit is due. Most who frequent BR are from engineering backgrounds so that explains why they make comments like this.

I dont think they have as much clout as the Indian Americans do ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Jul 2010 19:58

Lets get back to topic.

Who and and what is Mr Wu's backround?

The Ministry's Foreign Policy Advisory Group Member, Wu Jianmin

biswas · Post by **biswas** » 12 Jul 2010 20:14

One only has to look at the distribution of Chinese vis a vis occupations, to see who has more clout in the US.

A few scientists don't change the fact that the the dominant number of them work in fairly blue collar professions

Chinese born

1. Cooks and other food preparers 57,300
2. Scientists and quantitative analysts 52,500
3. Managers and administrators 52,100
4. Sales-related occupations 44,100
5. Computer software developers 39,200

Indian born

1. Computer software developers 125,300
2. Managers and administrators 103,500
3. Scientists and quantitative analysts 81,400
4. Sales-related occupations 71,500
5. Engineers and architects 46,500

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Jul 2010 20:14

Wu Jianmin

http://www.salzburgglobal.org/2009/incl ... rds=124542

Some of his quotes???

“Both China and Vietnam have realized that sustainable economic development is very important in their relations.”

“Cooperation momentum among east Asian countries is increasing day by day, which catches more and more attention from the international community”

“East Asian countries share high degree of economic dependence on US investment and its market and they have huge common interest in boosting bilateral economic cooperation with the US”

“I do not believe there is a universal model of democracy for the whole world, ... We will have a diversity of models, different types of democracy.”

“There are three strands of thought: those who see China as a threat; those who see it as a friend and those - now the majority - who take a wait-and-see approach. If we let extremists prevail, both sides will suffer.”

“Asia has become a driving force of the world economy.”

“If today, the German chancellor (Gerhard Schroeder) went somewhere to honor the memory of Adolf Hitler, the next day he would be forced to step down as chancellor,”

“the U.S. government and President Bush for making the effort to get me back . . . Without (their) help I would not be free right now.”

“It proves that China has opened up to the outside world in a broad manner, and it has developed very close ties with the rest of the world,”

“The increasingly active diplomatic maneuvers have made unprecedented contribution to China`s rising influence in today`s world,”

“What we oppose is Japanese Prime Minister (Junichiro Koizumi)'s visits to the shrine where 14 Class-A war criminals are honored.”

“The 14 top war criminals are major symbols of Japanese militarism as well as Japanese fascism.”

“No matter what difficulties may arise in bilateral relations, they will be overcome through joint efforts of the peoples of the two countries.”

“China always has an open attitude toward EA cooperation”

“There is still a long way to go for the final establishment of the EAC, and we don't have a timetable or roadmap for it now”

“The biggest problem for us is the fact that the shrine honors 14 Class-A war criminals, who represent Japan's militarism.”

“They also called for improvements to the social security system, an acceleration of medical reform and the promotion of safety production.”

“The conference has helped promote China's multilateral diplomacy, and has helped more foreign friends better understand China's pursuit of a peaceful and scientific development.”

“The CPPCC National Committee will continue to actively develop its friendly exchanges with foreign parliaments, international organizations, as well as non-governmental organizations.”

“The external exchanges of the CPPCC is an important part of China's overall diplomacy, and the CPPCC enjoys its unique advantages in promoting friendly cooperation and exchanges between the Chinese people and people in the rest of the world.”

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Jul 2010 20:42

Bade wrote:CN Yang, TD Lee, CK Kao, DC Tsui all Nobel Laureates in Physics. There is only one Indian origin person the famous S Chandrasekhar in comparison.

For the achievers list with big names (non-Nobel variety), there are likely many more Chinese origin than Indian origin people who matter in Physics. Let us give where credit is due. Most who frequent BR are from engineering backgrounds so that explains why they make comments like this.

I dont think they have as much clout as the Indian Americans do ?

Well you missed CV Raman in Physics, Hargobind Khorana in Medicine, Amartya Sen in Economics, Venkataraman Ramkrishanan in Chemistry and Tagore in Literature besides Ronald Ross in Medicine, Kipling in Literature, Mother Teressa in Peace, Naipaul in Literature and Tenzin Gyatso in peace ( in one way or other connected to India)

However, for native Indians and Chinese or any Scientist of non white country it is difficult to get Noble prize as there is lack of appreciation of their research or lack of information. I think Brahmchari, U N should have got one for Kalaazar and J C Bose for two seminal inventions/discoveries , (credit taken away by others)
Even Meghnad Saha could have been front runner for his Saha equation,not to mention S N Bose for whom we have Boson. Science has its illustrious contributors from India, though they may remain in textbooks, and not recognised by world at large. Colonial effects have much to do with this.

I am sure Chinese would have many more in the list.However they are viewed much more suspiciously by West, due to tendency of stealing data/intellectual property rights infringement facilitated by China and a variety of other reasons and hence have less clout. But Chinese branding is strong in massage parlour and related services

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 Jul 2010 20:46

biswas wrote:One only has to look at the distribution of Chinese vis a vis occupations, to see who has more clout in the US.

A few scientists don't change the fact that the the dominant number of them work in fairly blue collar professions

Chinese born

1. Cooks and other food preparers 57,300
2. Scientists and quantitative analysts 52,500
3. Managers and administrators 52,100
4. Sales-related occupations 44,100
5. Computer software developers 39,200

Indian born

1. Computer software developers 125,300
2. Managers and administrators 103,500
3. Scientists and quantitative analysts 81,400
4. Sales-related occupations 71,500
5. Engineers and architects 46,500

It is about what Americans value the most which is important in US.
Chinese have been there more than 100 years in the western region of US and have settled inside US.
Many generations of Chinese have grown and integrated inside the govt.
PRC has been part of the US geo political plans during the cold war. This focus on China in Asia is part of the US policy and is also a hedge against British led global influence during the last 100 years even after WWII.
China is handled very sophisticatedly by the US elite and used for economic, trade and geo political goals.
Trade policy, internal US monetary policy including inflation control and long term stability of Asia is handled with China is mind. Using China as a fear factor US is able to get support of many nations in Asia to create an alliance.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 Jul 2010 20:46

--deleted--

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 12 Jul 2010 20:46

The point being missed is that my list was of US residents of Chinese origin. Some like the present energy secretary Chu is even native US born. India resident ones do not belong in this list and context was specifically physics, since from WWII onwards, this group has significant influence on US policy than any other group.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Jul 2010 21:12

Wu Jianmin
Currently President of China Foreign Affairs University

Wu Jianmin, male, Han nationality, is a native of Jiangsu province. He was born in 1939, and graduated from the Beijing Foreign Languages Institute as a French major. He obtained a postgraduate degree in translation and interpretation. Wu has had a successful career as a diplomat, and served as ambassador of China to the UN until 1998. In 2003 he was appointed president of China Foreign Affairs University.

70-year-old Wu Jianmin is considered to be one of China's most outstanding diplomats. As one who witnessed and contributed to the development of China's diplomacy, his experiences are both extremely interesting and impressive. Our reporter Chen Zhe has his story.

From 1959 to 1971, he interpreted many times for Chairman Mao Zedong, Premier Zhou Enlai and other State leaders. In 1971, he became a member of China's first delegation to the United Nations and started his brilliant diplomatic career there. He experienced both the embarrassment of China's introverted diplomatic policy and the joy of China's returning to the global stage.

"When I began my diplomatic career, only fifty to sixty countries established bilateral relations with China. Now that figure is 172. The development of the country laid a foundation for my work and was the key to my career."

At the same time, Wu Jianmin hasn't forgotten his wife Shi Yanhua's support. She is also a diplomat and was once the ambassador to Luxemburg. As a diplomat couple, they had to be apart from time to time.

"It wouldn't affect our intimacy because we know each other very well. She is really down-to-earth and diligent. She sometimes gives me suggestions which are insightful and valuable. When I was appointed the ambassador to France, she decided to accompany me because she understood how important it was for an ambassador to have a hostess when holding a banquet at home. "

On June 27, 2003, President Chirac of France held a party, for the first time, to say farewell to China's departing Ambassador. He also saw fit to confer the Legion of Honor on him for his contribution in "promoting the friendly understanding between the French and the Chinese peoples".

Later Wu Jianmin was elected President of the Bureau of International Expositions, making him the first Asian to take up the post.

He also played key roles in China's bid for the Olympics in 1993 (as one of the spokesman) and the bid for the 2010 World Expo in 2002.

2003— President, China Foreign Affairs University Beijing Municipality
1998—2003 - Ambassador of China, Chinese Embassy France, Paris
1996—1998 - Permanent Representative of China to the U.N., United Nations, Geneva Office Switzerland, Geneva
1996—1998 - Ambassador of China to the U.N., United Nations, Geneva Office Switzerland, Geneva
1991—1994 - Ambassador of China, Chinese Embassy Netherlands, Hague
1991-1993 - Wu Jianmin served as the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
1989—1990 - Political Counselor, Chinese Embassy Belgium, Brussels
1989—1990 - Deputy Chief, Permanent Mission of the PRC to the United Nations
1985—1989 - Counselor for China, United Nations USA, New York, New York

His interview in 2006

At the 2006 Cross Cultural Communication Forum held in Beijing on August 31, twelve well-known experts shared their views on the theme of "cross-cultural exchange and soft power building". At the one-day cultural feast, Wu Jianmin, former Chinese ambassador to France and President of the Chinese Foreign Affairs University, accepted an exclusive interview with People's Daily Online.

Reporter: Culture is a component of China's soft power strategy to develop national strength, and culture can only extend its influence through communication. What do you think is the significance of cross-cultural communication in soft power building?

Wu Jianmin: Cross-cultural communication is a major task for China and the world today. The development of cross cultural exchange is essential to building a harmonious society as well as an internal force promoting world peace, development and cooperation. Obstacles hindering China's development may be removed and speculation on the "China Threat Theory" resolved through frequent cultural exchanges. The world might understand the true goals of China's peaceful rise and appreciate the benefits and opportunities made available to them because of China's development. I think it will greatly contribute to the building of the harmonious society President Hu Jintao envisages.

Reporter: China's comprehensive national strength has grown remarkably, and it has increased its international status and influence. However, the cultural differences between China and the rest of the world have intensified. What do you think we should do to resolve this contradiction and develop soft power?

Wu Jianmin: China should confidently display its true colors to the world (as if world doesn't know). I personally believe that most foreign opinions on China are purely speculation. Throughout history, the rise of a nation was based on expansion, aggression and colonization. Nearly all the current powers have moved through those stages.

I want to say that China has never done that; it has never gained power through aggression. Historically speaking, China, once the largest and most powerful country in the world, has an incredible history and splendid culture. Dating back some 600 years, with an enormous and powerful fleet, Zhen He set out on his first voyage to Malaysia (nearly 28,000 miles south of China), taking with him the wonderful Chinese culture. He taught locals how to dig wells, cultivate rice and cotton as well as build houses. The quality of water from wells was better than river water, and rice and cotton greatly improved the living standard of the locals. Furthermore, he also passed on China's knowledge of construction.

However when the Portuguese arrived on the island country in 1511, they built blockhouses and exploited and enslaved the aboriginals.

These examples show that China has never bullied other countries even in its most powerful and prosperous period. I may safely boast that Chinese culture is a peaceful culture.

In modern times, China has achieved much since it adopted a policy of reform and opening-up in 1978. China has shared its economic growth with people across the world. With its policy of attracting foreign investment, China has welcomed advances in skills, equipment and managerial expertise. China has cooperated with foreign countries for common development, creating a win-win situation that benefits all parties.

Reporter: The large cultural deficit in China's external cultural exchange and communication is an abnormal phenomenon. As an experienced diplomat and a cultural envoy, could you elaborate on the long-standing mistakes made in soft power building?

Wu Jianmin: The cultural deficit has not happened by chance. It is common that countries with a flourishing economy will have a strong cultural influence on countries with a sluggish economy. The export of cultural products by developed countries will outstrip that of developing countries. But I want to mention two areas of error that China must be aware of.

Some people believe it is difficult for the situation to change in a short period of time, but I don't think so. Altering such passiveness cannot be realized in one step. I think many Chinese still do not understand the true meaning of Chinese culture. They often think their cultural products will be accepted worldwide. Others believe that such a problem can be resolved by directly addressing the issue in talks, or if necessary, warfare.

Internally speaking, soft power is a kind of cohesive force; externally speaking, it is a feeling of affinity, and it can't be imposed upon others.

Reporter: How do you define the relationship between cross-cultural exchange and soft power building?

Wu Jianmin: Culture is the essence of China's soft power, and cross-cultural exchange implies communication between two different types of cultures.

First of all, we need to know what Chinese culture is and why we should develop it. China's social and cultural development cannot be separated.

Secondly, we need to understand others' cultures. A Chinese idiom best illustrates my meaning: if you know your enemy and yourself, you can fight a hundred battles without defeat. ( he thinks other cultures as enemy??)

We can absorb the best of foreign culture through comparison and soft power building, and strengthen cross-country communication. Soft power building is developing and progressing. We should combine culture from both home and abroad, propelling the healthy and rapid development of cross-cultural exchange and soft power building.

Has written six books

The series--The Art of Communication, The Rise of China in the Eyes of a Diplomat, China Is Sharing Her Growth With the Rest of the World, Case Studies in Diplomacy, The World Under Great Changes, and Our Memorable Years in France--features detailed stories about China's diplomatic history, as well as the author's insights on and analysis of international affairs.

His article on A Chinese Perspective on a Changing World

s the world undergoes tremendous changes at an unprecedented pace, I have examined three major global changes from my perspective as a Chinese scholar.

First, the center of gravity of international relations is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

We must contend with climate change, environmental degradation, terrorism, drug trafficking, pandemics, etc. No country — no matter how powerful it is — is able to meet these challenges alone.
Though we are still at the initial stage of this shift, it is the most important change in the last four centuries — which were dominated by the West. Now this situation is gradually coming to an end.

Asia was the most important continent in the world economy for many centuries. Until 1820, Asia’s GDP accounted for 60% of that of the world. However, after that, for the reasons we all know, Asia experienced a rapid decline.

After the Second World War, things started to change. Japan was the first to rise in Asia. We Asians are grateful to Japan for inventing this export-oriented development model, which helped initiate the process of Asia’s rise.

ps - from various web sources

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 13 Jul 2010 00:53

chaanakya wrote:^^^ DavidB By your definition, if Mao was a terrorist and Japanese also called him so and you agree who am I to dispute that. But in Tibet China is an occupation force and it does not matter what you call Dalai lama and how much chinese infrastructure in Tibet his followers destroy, they will remain freedom fighters.

It doesn't really matter what either of us calls them, I don't even remember how we got into this argument.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 13 Jul 2010 00:57

This debate about Chinese Americans vs. Indian Americans is kinda pointless, neither represents the views and aspirations of the majority of the population in their respective countries of origins. How many Chinese Americans are descendants of people who were persecuted by the PRC? How many Indian Americans are of the numerically humongous backward castes and the untouchables? It's a reach to even say that they'll definitely have the best interest of their nations of origins in mind.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jul 2010 01:04

Nice ==

naren · Post by **naren** » 13 Jul 2010 02:03

DavidD wrote:This debate about Chinese Americans vs. Indian Americans is kinda pointless, neither represents the views and aspirations of the majority of the population in their respective countries of origins. How many Chinese Americans are descendants of people who were persecuted by the PRC? How many Indian Americans are of the numerically humongous backward castes and the untouchables? It's a reach to even say that they'll definitely have the best interest of their nations of origins in mind.

While I agree with the spirit in which you are saying, let's not drag caste here. Its a heavily misunderstood/distorted concept. You can chk harmonization/homogenization thread in GDF, if you are interested. Caste is discussed there.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 13 Jul 2010 03:15

That's probably true, I have a very rudimentary understanding of the subcontinent's caste system. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that based on my experiences in the states, the 2nd generations usually can't read/write the native language and the 3rd generations usually can't even speak/listen to it. Most of them, from 2nd generation on, don't give a crap about their heritage except maybe during Chinese/Indian holidays and doing some traditional dances. They tend to care much more about making money and getting laid.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 13 Jul 2010 04:26

The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/7845910

US-India Friendship
http://www.usindiafriendship.net/

Strategist retired Admiral Raja Menon and economist and director of ICRIER (Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations) Rajiv Kumar are the joint authors of a book titled, "The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy". It was released last month at a book launch event at the Hudson Institute in Washington.

I read it once. I will read it a second time starting this week. It’s a great book, an unusual book. Nothing like this has been attempted before. But its a difficult book to write about. I think I may have to revisit this book more than once to do even a modicum of justice to the prodigous effort that has gone into its making.

For a start let me say that it’s a monumental work on the alternative scenarios and foreign policy choices India is likely to face in 2020. If India’s Ministry of External Affairs is looking for defining scenarios to address policy issues, it will find them here.

In brief, as a press release by the authors says, the book uses a proven method, net assessment (NA), evolved through rigorous work and empirical analysis to help Indian policy makers envisage possible alternative future scenarios that the country is likely to be faced with in 2020 and to prepare for them by identifying the main drivers of future developments. Net Assessment was first used in the United States in the 1970s to assess the possible outcomes of US-Soviet competition.

The book spells out the following four possible global scenarios in 2020:

1)The first is one in which the US reinvents itself and surges forward on the tide of development of alternate energy sources.

2)The second envisages a scenario in which the relative power of the US declines and a multipolar world emerges in which regional powers rise to run their regions unilaterally – India in South Asia, China in continental Asia, and the US with Brazil in the Americas. While globalisation reduces political rivalry between nations, there is no co-ordinated action against terrorism and rogue, non-state actors.

3)The third scenario is one in which the US and China establish a duopoly and begin to co-operate in controlling world institutions, leaving former friends of the US, including India, without a platform. India will then be faced with the choice of either joining the duopoly or facing isolation.

4)The final scenario is one in which economic growth in both the United States and China remains depressed while India grows at a sustained annual rate of nine to ten per cent. The world takes longer to recover from the recession, international bodies become weak and the US becomes more isolationist. India becomes a powerful entity by 2020 but has not yet developed mechanisms to play the role of a constructive global or regional power.

Of these, the worst-case scenario from India’s perspective is the emergence of a US-China duopoly where China remains hostile to India and the US is unavailable as a balancing power.

The book outlines a strategy that will help India tackle the challenges posed by the possible shift in global power arrangements.

It includes:

*A strong focus on achieving sustained economic growth with equity as that helps India to withstand a possible duopoly

*A hedging military strategy that enables India to switch theatres between North-Continental and South Maritime, abolishing all institutions for passive territorial defence and unifying military command

*A technology strategy that gives the private sector its head with government joint ventures and subordinates the human resource development and science and technology ministries to that of service providers with measurable outputs to ride a possible US wave of alternate energy innovation

*A national security strategy that creates mechanisms that conjoins the NSA system to the parliamentary system

*A domestic strategy that reforms all domestic institutions, particularly the police and the civil service, under external supervision and

*The recreation of a foreign policy apparatus that can implement this strategy abroad.

The challenges that India will face in implementing this strategy will come from:

· The rise of a galloping China with perceived unsolvable disputes with India and ruled by a monolithic, single party

· The fundamentalist threat from an unstable Pakistan in a close alliance with China

· The region being overwhelmed by Chinese economic blandishments to support regimes politically hostile to India

· The fraying of international institutions

· A degraded neighbourhood because of economic compulsions in Bangladesh, continued political upheaval in Nepal, simmering discontent and low level conflict in Sri Lanka and jihadi threat in Pakistan and

· The loss of naval superiority in the Indian Ocean.

The book also raises questions about whether India has operational mechanisms needed to implement the strategy that it has outlined. It points out that the lack of a strategic core, which directs policy and oversees implementation, is a major lacuna that needs to be addressed urgently.

The above is a preliminary overview.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 13 Jul 2010 06:38

DavidD wrote
That's probably true, I have a very rudimentary understanding of the subcontinent's caste system. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that based on my experiences in the states, the 2nd generations usually can't read/write the native language and the 3rd generations usually can't even speak/listen to it. Most of them, from 2nd generation on, don't give a crap about their heritage except maybe during Chinese/Indian holidays and doing some traditional dances. They tend to care much more about making money and getting laid.

Good for them -by reducing their whole life to making money and getting laid - they are at least trying to desperately integrate with their host society and its culture! By the way, for someone with a "very rudimentary understanding of the subcontinent's caste system" you seem to have a remarkable confidence in using terms like "humongous" for such massive "backwards"! If my words in generalizing whole of American society offends you, then do also consider that your earlier post was also a generalization about expat Indian and Chinese next-gens.

Sociological studies indicate that there is very little social-marital integration from Chinese and Indian expats, and the identity aspects sort of cycle through in generations. So desperation in "integration" increases up to the 2nd and then sort of reverse in the 3rd and 4th.

naren · Post by **naren** » 13 Jul 2010 06:48

Indians tend to keep their native name and not give up religion. You can see atleast one temple around Indian communities. Temple is a great instrument in the preservation of culture. I'm not sure how this works for the Chinese community. Most of them take western names. I have not seen any Chinese places of worship. Thai, Laotian, Vietnamese tend to take western names, but still stick to their religion. They have dedicated temples and perpetuate their culture. In some cases, the women marry white men & successfully do a reverse EJ on them

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 13 Jul 2010 07:20

Acharya wrote:The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy

Acharya, is that your personal review based on reading that book?

If not, can you please provide information on who wrote that review, where was the review published, and a link to it if available.

I know you sometimes say that you receive it by email. If so, at least some info on the author of the review would be the minimum courtesy you can afford us

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 13 Jul 2010 07:26

DavidD wrote:This debate about Chinese Americans vs. Indian Americans is kinda pointless, neither represents the views and aspirations of the majority of the population in their respective countries of origins. How many Chinese Americans are descendants of people who were persecuted by the PRC? How many Indian Americans are of the numerically humongous backward castes and the untouchables? It's a reach to even say that they'll definitely have the best interest of their nations of origins in mind.

Yup, similar to the way the oppressed african-americans hardly got any ambassador posts to important countries. Maybe it is because most of them are in prison for selling drugs?? And they were all sold mortgages that they were incapable of paying, so that the could by shown their place when they lose their homes and end up on the streets! No wonder most of the african-americans don't have US interest at heart

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 13 Jul 2010 09:26

brihaspati wrote:
DavidD wrote
That's probably true, I have a very rudimentary understanding of the subcontinent's caste system. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that based on my experiences in the states, the 2nd generations usually can't read/write the native language and the 3rd generations usually can't even speak/listen to it. Most of them, from 2nd generation on, don't give a crap about their heritage except maybe during Chinese/Indian holidays and doing some traditional dances. They tend to care much more about making money and getting laid.
Good for them -by reducing their whole life to making money and getting laid - they are at least trying to desperately integrate with their host society and its culture! By the way, for someone with a "very rudimentary understanding of the subcontinent's caste system" you seem to have a remarkable confidence in using terms like "humongous" for such massive "backwards"! If my words in generalizing whole of American society offends you, then do also consider that your earlier post was also a generalization about expat Indian and Chinese next-gens.

Sociological studies indicate that there is very little social-marital integration from Chinese and Indian expats, and the identity aspects sort of cycle through in generations. So desperation in "integration" increases up to the 2nd and then sort of reverse in the 3rd and 4th.

Sorry, I thought "backward caste" was a common term. I mean, I'd thought that "untouchable" was kind of a slur too but I think it's a common term?

As for the identity thing, it's a dichotomy of sorts. You'd see 2nd and even 3+ generation Asians(including the subcontinent) hanging out mostly just with their own ethnicity, but they feel little emotional connection with their homeland nor do they know anything about how it's like across the globe. It's kind of like the blacks in America, they tend to hang out with each other, but they know nothing and care nothing about Africa.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 13 Jul 2010 10:06

I have noticed one thing about Indian americans and chinese americans.Both these groups are very slow in integrating with the rest of US.Infact you can say this about most of the americans who have asian ancestry.Maybe this will change with 2nd or 3rd gen immigrants.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 13 Jul 2010 11:01

darshhan wrote:I have noticed one thing about Indian americans and chinese americans.Both these groups are very slow in integrating with the rest of US.Infact you can say this about most of the americans who have asian ancestry.Maybe this will change with 2nd or 3rd gen immigrants.

Kind of depends on what you mean by integrating. If you mean hanging out with black/white/hispanic people, then no, the 2nd and 3rd gen aren't that much better. But if you mean by adapting to western culture and basically forgetting most things Asian then yes, by 3rd gen it's pretty much complete. The thing is, with people of different colors and features, even when they're pretty much the same culturally, they still naturally separate into their own groups due to different physical appearances.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 13 Jul 2010 11:25

putnanja wrote:
Acharya wrote:The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy

Acharya, is that your personal review based on reading that book?

If not, can you please provide information on who wrote that review, where was the review published, and a link to it if available.

I know you sometimes say that you receive it by email. If so, at least some info on the author of the review would be the minimum courtesy you can afford us

Updated

The arrival of India as a predominant regional power and a rapidly emerging global actor is among the great strategic transformations of the last hundred years. Despite its reputation as inward-looking and non-aligned, in the last two decades India has developed an appetite for global engagement based on its perception of dangerous and growing security challenges: China threatens; Pakistan and Afghanistan are in chaos; Iran seethes; and the Persian Gulf is an ever tenuous energy lifeline. Meanwhile, India retains a security relationship with its old patron, Russia, while it expands security and technology attachments to Israel. All these factors are leading to a paradigm-shifting strategic alliance with the United States.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 13 Jul 2010 11:49

putnanja wrote:
Acharya wrote:The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy

Acharya, is that your personal review based on reading that book?

If not, can you please provide information on who wrote that review, where was the review published, and a link to it if available.

I know you sometimes say that you receive it by email. If so, at least some info on the author of the review would be the minimum courtesy you can afford us

Text

http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseact ... nts&id=782

Video

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/7845910

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 13 Jul 2010 14:00

After watching the video, it looks like Raja Menon's recommandations are

1. India's best option to deal with china is piggyback on US power. America should be the sole superpower.That is in India's interest.

2. Pakistan's stability is in India's interest. It should give pakistan more time to stabilise.

3. India should not have reservations in allowing the Americans to deal with Bangladesh and other small neighbours like it is dealing with pakistan. It will lessen India's burdens and is in its interests.

No wonder, ex-CIA Lisa curtis is very much impressed.

And why is a book which is about India's strategic options in the future is released at a US thinktank in front of US "south asia experts" and those US experts discussing what India's strategy should be ?

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 13 Jul 2010 15:41

US Needs PRC. PRC needs US. They are like a pair of binary neutron stars, tidal locked orbiting each other. Unable to break the lock due to the damage that will result to both of them. It appears that this is a lock which both do not like. And Appearances can be deceptive. The interesting question is what will happen when one of the parties, US or PRC, decides that it is more beneficial to break the lock then to maintain it ?

Also till now we are assuming that US will contain PRC. What if US decides that it is no longer in its interest to do so? Something similar happened in 1971. From 1962 till 1971 India could ask US for help in case of trouble with China. In 1971, US had the grand rapprochement with Mao's China. Post this rapprochement, US told India through diplomatic means that it would not be possible for US to help out India in case of conflict with China. Moreover in 1971 it threatened India with the USS Enterprise and also told China that if China were to take steps to prevent India from causing grievous harm to Pakistan, it would understand its compulsions.

India should be very clear, you cannot depend on US. US and China have the massive Pacific ocean across them. India only has the Himalayas. A army cannot walk across the pacific or swim across the pacific, but it can walk across the high passes of Himalayas. US if need arises can retreat across the vast ocean and still remain relatively secure. India does not have that luxury. India will need to depend on itself.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Jul 2010 16:29

orions wrote:US Needs PRC. PRC needs US. They are like a pair of binary neutron stars, tidal locked orbiting each other. Unable to break the lock due to the damage that will result to both of them. It appears that this is a lock which both do not like. And Appearances can be deceptive. The interesting question is what will happen when one of the parties, US or PRC, decides that it is more beneficial to break the lock then to maintain it ?

Binary neutron stars is boring. Guess who is India in the video below!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 13 Jul 2010 18:00

DavidD wrote
Sorry, I thought "backward caste" was a common term. I mean, I'd thought that "untouchable" was kind of a slur too but I think it's a common term?

"Backward caste" is a nebulous term concocted politically and constitutionally, quite recently in Indian history - in the fag end of the Brit rule and middle era of Republican India. The fact that it is an artificially constituted term, and is of limited inherent clarity is made obvious by the need to constantly redefine it legally and politically. You have to append a list to explicitly mention the groups, and this list is being continuously fought over. Moreover, do you have any idea as to the number of "untouchables"? In India, most of these terms have a really short history, and we find them turning up in intellectual discourse only after the Brits began to write Indian history and began to teach it as the "gospel" to Indians. a lot of it is invention, and a mixture of half truths and half-lies. They survive because they provide useful political ammunition to interested groups.

India is not only pockets of UP and Bihar, where such distinctions may make sense literally. The overwhelmingly "humongous" mass of India has a very complex class and subgroup division character, which do not fit so easily into European native style of hierarchical subdivisions.

As for the identity thing, it's a dichotomy of sorts. You'd see 2nd and even 3+ generation Asians(including the subcontinent) hanging out mostly just with their own ethnicity, but they feel little emotional connection with their homeland nor do they know anything about how it's like across the globe. It's kind of like the blacks in America, they tend to hang out with each other, but they know nothing and care nothing about Africa.

2nd and 3rd gen should have their homeland as America isn't it? You mean "Uhrheimat" - the "source/orgin" homeland. If they "know nothing about how its like across the globe", then at least in this they definitely share such an attitude with American Americans [which in Americano, by default means Americans born of North European and English descent. You don't hear in the media of English-American, German-American, French American, Swedish American, Norwegian American - as if people of such descent were "native" and lording it over the land from the beginning of humanity, but only hear of "American of Indian origin", American of Irish origin, American of Chinese origin, etc].

Your expression "their homeland" expresses this subtle Americano attitude that for Indians or the Chinese, America cannot be or should not be a homeland. They should preferably "go back". Europeans, especially of the Nordic extraction, have always been mortally scared of getting "racially contaminated", and the best relations with other "ethnicities" they are most comfortable with is a kind of segregated master-slave relationship, where the "slaves" come and produce wealth, but claim as little of the share of their own product as possible, and never ever "mix" racially from the paternal side. Women of the slave class are of course like exotic and useful garnish on the table, adding to the flavour but not the main dish.

If they are not aware much of the outside world, then they are sharing in the great American school education project - which turns up such gems from time to time in surveys as being unable to locate geographical features.
Their sticking together, is an obvious sign of the subtle segregational signals they are constantly subjected to in the society they live in.

Americans, like the founding English tendency - have chosen the method of human classification least taxing on the brain - that of visual discrimination only [which again is perhaps not unexpected for me : people unable to face complexity will go for simplistic classifications which are however advantageous socio-economically].

In general, Eastern cultures tend to be more socially gregarious and welcoming to the "other". Most of these cultures have long been used to deal with and tolerate orders of social complexity the Americans or the Europeans have never faced in their short cultural span. The warmth and integrationist attitude of the first gen immigrants are not reciprocated from the host society and typically this has a very negative impact on second or subsequent gens. I found the European American social hierarchy increasingly racially discriminatory in social interactions as they go up in the "power scale".

Most Indian and Chinese next gens are in an agonized state of identity, where they are not really allowed "in" and only some progress is allowed if and only if they show positive outward signs of hating their Uhrheimat culture and identity. They are not acceptable as they are - they must shed their non-European identity completely as a hated and "lower" other, and even after doing that they are still not acceptable because of how they look. So these people lose it both ways. Many do try to regain their Uhrheimat identity and this is a trend you are perhaps not entirely aware of. Of course such attempts will also result in shattered dreams initially but over time as India or China grow more confident of their own power globally, this negative aspect will change.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 13 Jul 2010 20:40

Acharya wrote:http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/7845910

In the End, the guy from ICC talks about right of democratic self governance which EU countries believe in and have stopped disagreeing about. Whether India is ready to open up to this stand of ICC and EU (which Menon disregarded as non-drivers) in this issue as well.

Admiral Menon snubs at him," India is a multireligious, multi-ethnic, multilingual country. Holding such a country together is a huge problem. We have to fight insurgencies all the time. And most of the time, all these insurgents need is a political space. With that political space, the insurgencies stop. When European countries tell us that if they want freedom why don't you give it to them, we say Mind Your Business. What India are you talking about? Remember the pillars of Ashoka that he put in all corners (of subcontinent) in 300 BC. That is the India which we want. We don't want anybody telling whether we should have a bigger India OR smaller India OR half India"

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 15 Jul 2010 03:00

Madhuri is now the official mascot for this thread:

Indian Elephant Whips Dlagon

naren · Post by **naren** » 15 Jul 2010 04:09

^^^ Indian elephant has also pwned the national dish of pigs.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 15 Jul 2010 07:50

The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy

Text:

Video:

I really liked the way Adm. Raja Menon and Ashley Tellis summarized India's current standing, philosophical challenges, and the road ahead. Few thoughts on that -

Leadership Issues: We have discussed the very points that Adm. Menon and Ashely mentioned in our strategic ... threads

Economic growth first: Adm. Raja Menon echos my and many other BRFite thoughts - "Just because you want to focus on economy doesn't mean you have to do a sh*tty job in other areas". That shows our leadership's inability to multi-task despite having 60+ ministers and hundreds of senior bureaucrats.

Inward Looking Vs Outward Looking: This is the issue with Gandhian Thought process in our leadership. Leadership should be able to do both.

RM and AT have said a few things that need to be read between lines.

naren · Post by **naren** » 15 Jul 2010 08:41

RajeshA wrote:
orions wrote:US Needs PRC. PRC needs US. They are like a pair of binary neutron stars, tidal locked orbiting each other. Unable to break the lock due to the damage that will result to both of them. It appears that this is a lock which both do not like. And Appearances can be deceptive. The interesting question is what will happen when one of the parties, US or PRC, decides that it is more beneficial to break the lock then to maintain it ?
Binary neutron stars is boring. Guess who is India in the video below!

I know who Bakistan is. [Hint 0:15-0:19]