shyamd wrote:Gagan wrote:Shyamd,
What is your reading on 26/11 trial and how this is going to turn out?
My personal opinion is that TSP govt is only acting on certain individuals because they have to show something to the US and world community and to a certain extent their people of TSP - in order to show some legitimacy of the govt.
How is it going to turn out? Will Pakistan ever bring those responsible to justice?
Some will be put in jail (to show some tough action by TSP govt) - perhaps Lakhvi or some other small guys involved (and then after 12 months will be out and about with new IDs or even kept under house arrest for a while, will keep a low profile and ISI money will continue to reach them and their families). This is what I think will happen to "those who are guilty". Then if relations with India deteriorate, they will be released.
For now I think TSP is just playing the media game - show the world that they are trying to do something. But the world (govts probably do) doesnt realise that these people involved are representatives of the TSP govt.
TSP is the master of deception that has been fooling everyone. Paki's will be Paki's.
Why is GoI doing what it is doing, if we all know that the people who did this are the ones who run that country and not the government of pakistan?
Govt of TSP i.e. Zardari and co don't have any power at all (I think all of us on this board know that)!
One of the statements Pranab made after 26/11 was to say that we need seperate negotiation with the TSP army as they are the ones who really run that country, No point talking to the govt. And I think he said future negotiation will directly be with TSPA. So, which makes me ask the question of what is this drama of meeting Home ministers and Foreign min's all about? Is there a seperate track of negotiation directly with ISI/TSPA as Pranab hinted post 26/11? It would make sense if this track is secret as if this would be made public, the govt of TSP would be made illegitamate. So, I think that GoI is playing to an audience abroad, with this trips to TSP.
Truth is, we commoners don't really know what is going on. And I really don't know what GoI is trying to do.
The US is the one that gave us transcripts that linked Kayani directly in Kabul attacks. That should have been enough to goto war. What more evidence do we need? We already know the answer of who is responsible for 26/11.
Even Kabul attack evidence that US provided was enough for us to goto war. But we didn't... So what is GoI's game plan??
I think MMS is more concerned about the economy than TSP terror. Lets say he went to war, it would unite the TSP as a nation. Our economy could suffer as a result. Then lets say if we decisively defeat TSPA and take over vaste swathes of the country - then what? We will have an Iraq type situation with insurgent problems. Is there any point in crossing the border and hitting terror camps with their tents? The core issue of terror isn't going to be solved - it just brings a whole host of problems with it. Its a hassle that we don't need and has proven to be one of the biggest reasons why the US is in trouble and bogged down (side note - if this is true, did the US want us to go to war? ).
26/11, Kabul and other many attacks were simple. It was TSP saying "Yes I did it! Now Hit me". I think going to war with TSP would have united TSP and solved some big internal problems for TSPA. US would be happy as Taliban might be diverted away from Afghanistan and they will head for Kashmir - more Indian resources will be spent on war and not on developing the economy (lets face it, US is worried about our rise and they know India is the next big world power - the british did this in Iraq, you know MI6 had a small station in Kuwait city just to watch the Iraq - Kuwait border and they were just waiting for the day that Iraq would invade.)
If we leave TSP alone - they are left with a begging bowl and at 26/11 time, I think many territories were being taken over by the Taliban. Swat was big in the news at the time right? So MMS and strategicwalla's probably thought, "we don't need to do anything, TSP are already at war internally and their economy can't survive on its own now without funds being doled out by KSA/US".Even today, we know that TSP is worried about Pashtun nationalism and a seperate nation. We also had a lot of success in J&K against terrorists, which helped a lot.
So, in summary, what is GoI trying to do - just wait for TSPs demise, Priority number 1 is our economy - this will allow us to spend TSP to the ground. Talk to TSP govt just to play to the international audience.
Sorry if things are a bit jumbled up in this post and I maybe wrong. This is just my opinion.