amit wrote:. . . but would it be possible for the LeT to launch attacks in scale of 26/11 without active involvement of the Paki fauj? And given the Kasab fallout, it makes it that much more difficult for the Paki fauj to get involved, one reason I think there has been no repeat on Indian mainland, even though the Kabul Embassy bombing and then the shoot out was as daring as the ISI can dare to get.
My take is different for two reasons.
One, LeT is absolutely capable of launching an attack all on its own. It could have perfectly launched the 26/11 all by itself. Look at the the PA involvement in 26/11 - training at Mangla and possibly outskirts of Karachi, supply of maritime charts and GPS waypoints, arranging a boat for PNR 2.5 million, providing satellite phones, handling the terrorists and motivating them through every step for three days, and setting up communication. Some of these can be handled by LeT itself and there are any number of retired PA, PN officers available to do the rest. I therefore believe that rather than LeT initiating the Mumbai attack, it was completely a PA initiated attack and foot soldiers were supplied by the eastern-allies of the PA, namely the LeT. That was the same in the two bombings in Kabul where the western-allies of the PA, namely the Haqqani Group, supplied the suicide bombers. However, there is an assault going on the LeT to wean away its cadres to the Punjabi Taliban (or Wahabandis). LeT (and the PA) cannot remain impervious to this development. The only way to survive this threat is by LeT increasing its stock among the rural masses, particularly in Central and South Punjab. And, the only way of increasing the stock is to mount an even more audacious attack on India. Attractive opportunities are presenting themselves with upcoming events in India. The Kabul attacks and the 26/11 left tell-tale evidences linking to the PA and the were messages to India and also to the US that it is PA that determines India policies in Pakistan and nobody can do anything about that. Having conveyed that message, the PA may choose to be more careful in covering its tracks in the immediate future.
Two, Pakistanis are well known for becoming arrogant, audacious and overbearing at the slightest imagined turn of events their way. Remember the absurd demands by the PA during negotiations at Simla after Pakistan's victory in 1971 ? Remember the shrill 'azadi' speeches of Madam BB ? Remember the 'lay-off' speech of Musharraf after 9/11 ? Now, they perceive that they have the US under their thumb and the world is under their feet. More than that, they feel that India is getting sidelined. Pakistan are the world T-20 champions. Pakistan feels that India is simply unable to do anything even after a mountain of evidence against the State actors of Pakistan. And, the threats of the US are also circumscribed by ground reality in Afghanistan. If you look at the statements from Pakistan, they perceive Man Mohan Singh & SM Krishna as old men who do not have it in them to order an attack against Pakistan. They made the same mistake in 1965 against a diminutive Lal Bahdur Shastri but the martial race that they are, they do not learn easily. PA may thus see a 'window of opportunity' now as they saw in 1965.
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) meeting in Kabul.
