India-US Strategic News and Discussion

archan · Post by **archan** » 01 Aug 2010 23:21

Don't get me wrong, you have good points and insights and are a good contributor. All I ask is to be helpful rather than be a challenge to the moderators.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 01 Aug 2010 23:35

Sanjay M wrote: It doesn't take much to see that the US is in a state of fundamental internal conflict right now, due to the conflicting pulls of divergent interest groups. You can see the deep polarization between the 2 major parties, and the ferocity of the political debates there. Deep passions are being felt by both sides.

Starting with incorrect assumpions as though they are based on firm ground, and formulating policies on such faulty assumptions is a sure recipe for failure. I don't mean it in a disrespectful sense, but you sound more like SDREs who are fresh of the boat in this country, or the metro elites in India who have passionate debates about US politics after being enamoured by the left Vs right, dems Vs reps, liberals Vs conservatives narcissim over trivial differences. So the so called polarization, ferocity of debates etc that your are enamoured with matter didly squat in their foreign policies; especially towards us SDREs. It is very important to keep perspective in mind.

ManuT · Post by **ManuT** » 02 Aug 2010 01:44

Pratyush wrote:I get the drift and thats the reason why I am so Konphused. Cause the Jhidies have to be nutered if the Khantes is able to withdraw from Afpak. But what am seening is that they are seeking an accomodation with them.

Don't they know that any quest for accomodation by khans will be seen as avictory by the MMB. Or I am ascribing too much common sense to Foggy bottom.

US policy is going thru the usual: Shock, Surprise, Denial, Anger, Recession, is now heading for the last Stage - Acceptance.

Starting from the terror attacks of 9/11 where the whole world sympathized with it, US has totally botched the GWOT (by including Pakistan as an ally, which created Taliban and nurtured al Qaida). Now it has reached a point where US has staying power only for a limited time. It's involvement now is almost as long as it's involvement in Vietnam. So it is almost time to go home.

The line of thinking, from Stratfor, that Pakistan as a lever in South Asia against India is not new, people like Gobar Ayub Khan have been making is this exact argument in Pakistani press -10 years ago, using the word 'spanner' instead of 'lever'. And the word 'spanner' is more accurate. What is new is that this 'lever' article is coming from Western self professed policy 'experts' who claim to know and understand everything geo-politically. This shows, how much they understand the region. I do not know how much of the current policy is shaped by these experts, but looking at the track record, it might have had a hand. If so, these experts also have the blood of US troops on their hands.

Wiki-leaks are good because, it tells everyone, whatever happens next, why it is happening. If we see an effective and irrevocable crackdown against ISI and LET, then India can say US's policy has been corrected. If not, no one can plead ignorance, or a lack of understanding of the issues, going forward.

IMO, there is no conspiracy to keep India weak only ignorance. Pakistan, since the visit of Liaquat Ali Khan to the US in 1953, decided to cultivate its relations with US (as UK was not receptive to its constant demands). From that time on till the collapse of the Soviet bloc, India (because of its own baggage) gave a free hand to Pakistan in shaping US's world view of the sub-Continent. And that is part of the problem

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Aug 2010 02:32

ManuT wrote:
US policy is going thru the usual: Shock, Surprise, Denial, Anger, Recession, is now heading for the last Stage - Acceptance.

Starting from the terror attacks of 9/11 where the whole world sympathized with it, US has totally botched the GWOT (by including Pakistan as an ally, which created Taliban and nurtured al Qaida). Now it has reached a point where US has staying power only for a limited time. It's involvement now is almost as long as it's involvement in Vietnam. So it is almost time to go home.

This entire cycle is the great epoch of the last of the British Empire and its successor.
Shock, Surprise, Denial, Anger, Recession, Acceptance
It is really the end of the 300 year cycle.

The line of thinking, from Stratfor, that Pakistan as a lever in South Asia against India is not new, people like Gobar Ayub Khan have been making is this exact argument in Pakistani press -10 years ago, using the word 'spanner' instead of 'lever'. And the word 'spanner' is more accurate. What is new is that this 'lever' article is coming from Western self professed policy 'experts' who claim to know and understand everything geo-politically. This shows, how much they understand the region. I do not know how much of the current policy is shaped by these experts, but looking at the track record, it might have had a hand. If so, these experts also have the blood of US troops on their hands.

Pakistan as a lever in South Asia against India was OK during the 1960s. At this moment the reality has changed and this lever is a broken one.

IMO, there is no conspiracy to keep India weak only ignorance. Pakistan, since the visit of Liaquat Ali Khan to the US in 1953, decided to cultivate its relations with US (as UK was not receptive to its constant demands). From that time on till the collapse of the Soviet bloc, India (because of its own baggage) gave a free hand to Pakistan in shaping US's world view of the sub-Continent. And that is part of the problem

This was facilitated by UK and ex WWII generations. The main goal after independence was to make sure that US and ordinary Americans does not become sympathetic to India and Indians. The legacy of Mahatma Gandhi and Indian freedom movement resonated strongly within US in the 1950s and 1960s. Pakistani efforts and UK efforts talking against Indians made sure that Americans did not accept Indians readily. Nehru and his generations created an anti imperialistic image of India which put a barrier to understanding India by Americans.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Aug 2010 07:40

CNN's GPS discusses US/Ipad and India's computer.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestof ... k.ipad.cnn

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 03 Aug 2010 01:20

Ethisphere
What Causes The Biggest Bad Decisions

They happen when too many different parties have their interests aligned and complexity is too great.

--
Gee, sounds like that could describe either Indian or American foreign policies

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Aug 2010 13:10

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/857 ... n-can.html

US appeals court: Prison can ban Muslim scarf
Philadelphia, Aug 3 (AP):

Prison officials can ban employees from wearing religious headscarves out of concerns they pose a safety risk, a US appeals court in Philadelphia has ruled in a split 2-1 decision.

Prison officials have legitimate concerns that the headscarves can hide drugs or other contraband, or be used by an inmate to strangle someone, the majority said yesterday.

The ruling dismisses a lawsuit filed by the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission on behalf of three Muslim women employed at the Delaware County Prison in suburban Thornton. The EEOC had said they were being forced to compromise their religious beliefs to keep their jobs.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 04 Aug 2010 03:06

Prevent jobs of the future going to India: Obama

http://www.hindu.com/2010/08/04/stories ... 591000.htm

derkonig · Post by **derkonig** » 04 Aug 2010 09:00

Bah, with Obuma at the helm the economic wreckovery will ensure that there are no new jobs in US.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 04 Aug 2010 09:36

Obama plans to pin the blame on the Republicans, by whining that they refused to keep extending unemployment benefits endlessly and infinitely, according to his infinite-borrow-and-spend mentality.
Hey, it's all just abstract numbers with umpteen zeros on the end, in his fluffy dreamworld. I don't think this guy was ever good at math.

He will go down in history as the American Gorbachev, who kept waving and smiling while his country was driven into the ground. Damn Atlanticists have brought down not one, but 2 superpowers.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 04 Aug 2010 11:47

'India will take time to adopt its role as global player'

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 04 Aug 2010 11:56

What rules is he talking about.

---

"We need to be both engaging them, try to work with them to understand their responsibilities and to work with us to solve global problems; at the same time, we make it clear that there are a set of international rules, and that all countries, including India and China, would be better if they played within those rules. We have to have the capabilities to enforce those rules, if necessary," Headley said.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Aug 2010 12:09

Just what are the rules that India has broken, in the international order. Some one should ask them.

Some times I feel that the Khans think that India should be good boy and sit in a corner and do what it is told to do by the Khans.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 04 Aug 2010 12:11

considering the way Iraq's resources were grabbed and its reserves & trade denominated in dollars by force, its clear there are no rules.

its the law of the jungle.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Aug 2010 13:19

Obama wants India "to pay the price...",not just the price for the return of the Paki-Mil/ISI/Taliban nexus back in the saddle in Afghanistan,plotting yet again aganst India,but also a heavy price.billions for weaponry to fight Pak,which is amorally also being massive rearmed by the very same Uncle Obama! We should reject all US arms as far as possible as long as it supports Pak and supplies it with arms to fight against india.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Aug 2010 14:11

having worked for a couple of cos that ultimately were run into the ground by inept top management, I can confirm the talk of acquisitions/expansions/world conquest gets louder as the end gets nearer. oddly enough cos even hire strongly months before they go under, kind of like a lamp burning more bright before fuel runs out.

we shall sit in the shadows, sharpening our knifes, polishing our shields and letting the immense weight of our elephant economy crack and finally shatter the fortress walls ... simply by leaning against the door.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Aug 2010 15:22

+1 to Marten and singha ji.

On a related note, I was running a spread sheet simulation and assuming 9% growth rates our economy reaches 4.73 trillion years after it has reached 2 trillion. Twenty years after 2 trillion it has reached 11.21 trillion.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 05 Aug 2010 00:19

Anti-US 'tirade' upsets Obama man

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 253964.cms

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 05 Aug 2010 02:00

Marten wrote:All it takes is a regime change for the outlook to change back in favor of India. Jeb baba is yet to ascend to the throne, and perhaps 2016 will signal a huge change on two fronts: a) $2tn economy with more manufacturing capabilities added, b) a favorable US president. imvvho, a follow-up Dem. President is unlikely after Obama even though there are better D candidates and demographics would allow for another. All the elephant needs to do is make peaceful grunts and make sure we're ready for the moment.

I don't know if it is OT.

What are the chances of a non-black president coming in to WH in 2016? Would it be seen as whiteman's manipulation?

IMO it is like Indian reservations system. Once you give it, it is very difficult to undo

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 05 Aug 2010 02:31

Outsourcing to India Draws Western Lawyers. Just imagine the jealousy and contempt that the SDREs' picture will induce into the psyche of TSP Pakijabi TFTA

.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Aug 2010 04:04

Sanjay M wrote:He will go down in history as the American Gorbachev, who kept waving and smiling while his country was driven into the ground. Damn Atlanticists have brought down not one, but 2 superpowers.

What Gorbachev did ultimately helped the Russians, and the World no?

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 05 Aug 2010 04:35

Neshant wrote:What rules is he talking about.

---

"We need to be both engaging them, try to work with them to understand their responsibilities and to work with us to solve global problems; at the same time, we make it clear that there are a set of international rules, and that all countries, including India and China, would be better if they played within those rules. We have to have the capabilities to enforce those rules, if necessary," Headley said.

IMO he mistakes having sex with kith and kin and pets aka incest and pure animal instinct with perhaps Love and Romance which he mistakenly calls as "responsibility." Their serving such "responsibility" to all near, dear, and far ones is not being done by India and China and that is something beyond the grasp of this guy.
He wants to bait , divide the neighbourhood, increase the cost of growth and yada yada. We can all understand where he is coming from.

"The best approach I can describe to dealing with that is to continue to call these countries to be responsible stakeholders. We need their assistance in dealing with global problems," Perry said.

mfkers, those problems are your doing and we are suffering because of that. Our strategy should be to continue to call out US on the problems that is caused or helped sustain.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 05 Aug 2010 07:02

Marten wrote:All it takes is a regime change for the outlook to change back in favor of India. Jeb baba is yet to ascend to the throne, and perhaps 2016 will signal a huge change on two fronts: a) $2tn economy with more manufacturing capabilities added, b) a favorable US president. imvvho, a follow-up Dem. President is unlikely after Obama even though there are better D candidates and demographics would allow for another. All the elephant needs to do is make peaceful grunts and make sure we're ready for the moment.

Jeb Bush has already ruled out a run for the presidency.
But who knows, maybe he'll reverse himself.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 05 Aug 2010 08:27

Neshant wrote:considering the way Iraq's resources were grabbed and its reserves & trade denominated in dollars by force, its clear there are no rules.

its the law of the jungle.

Shh...some people here might think you're a conspiracy theorist.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 05 Aug 2010 09:07

SwamyG wrote: What Gorbachev did ultimately helped the Russians, and the World no?

What Gorbachev did actually did not help anything to Russia nor the world as well. To me anyone who triggers a nation's division is not a leader. He/She is just another Jinnah. West written history will always be fair to Gorbachev.

To me a person who triggers country division is either a deliberate-soldout-traitor or one with zero self respect or one who has no control over the ones who is manipulating him.

After the fall of SU, as part of my first consulting experience abroad (Early DOO from India

), I visited Moscow and the dhimmi in me praised Gorbachev with a very courteous car driver. He was very unhappy especially from a person from India. (Note: I will stop here as this is already an OT for this thread)

India does not need equivalants at Race Course Road.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 06 Aug 2010 01:34

I hope its ok to post this US Poltical satire here.

While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75 year old rancher, who's hand was caught in the gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man.. Eventually the topic got around to Obama and his role as our president.

The old rancher said, 'Well, ya know, Obama is a "Post Turtle''..

Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him, what a 'post turtle' was.

The old rancher said, 'When you're driving down a country road and you come across a fence (speaking of fence's, see below) post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a "post turtle"!

The old rancher saw the puzzled look on the doctor's face so he continued to explain. 'You know he didn't get up there by himself, he doesn't belong up there, he doesn't know what to do while he's up there, he's elevated beyond his ability to function, and you just wonder what kind of dumbell put him up there to begin with'.!!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Aug 2010 02:49

Muppalla garu: You are talking of a country that is dharmic in the first place and a traitor splitting it up. But USSR was no dharmic,no

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 06 Aug 2010 03:20

@Manny ^^^
"'You know he didn't get up there by himself, he doesn't belong up there, he doesn't know what to do while he's up there, he's elevated beyond his ability to function, and you just wonder what kind of dumbell put him up there to begin with'.!!"

Is he talking about GWB? Reagan? Carter?

They wuz all 'post turtles' frozen in the headlights.

Obamba knows exactly why wherever he is . Look at the progression (or regression) from G2, India as 'economic superpower' so give up 'Cashmere', visit in October, exercises with SOKO off the 'East Sea/Sea of Japan' and Hillary's " we are with you in the South China Sea" bit. The 'ranchers' have been sniffing manure too long.

In short, Obama may be seen to a turtle on the post. But it's not the same post the next day.

He's not dumb. We should not underestimate.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 06 Aug 2010 04:55

Obama is a great tactical thinker but probably not as strong when it comes to thinking strategically. Unlike Bush who had a number of ideological "brains" running the presidency Obama has none apart from Bob Gates (who will be leaving next year), leaving him actually in charge of crafting policy that is both strategically and tactically sound making him much weaker when it comes to foreign policy. At the same time, unless the Gop can come up with someone other than Sarah Palin, Obama it will be again.

Rahm Emanuel and Axelrod were important brains when it came to running his campaign, but they don't offer the same strategic vision as ideologues like Wolfowitz, Cheney, or Rove.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 06 Aug 2010 05:18

Since when is Wolfowitz a strategic thinker? He's just a shill for the Israeli lobby who desperately wanted to invade Iraq. This led the Atlanticists to hound him, even after he left for the World Bank.

Gates is like Dronacharya - expert warmaster, but got stuck playing for the wrong team.
Obama is like Eklavya - "Please help me, Master Gates!"
"Alright, but first do a surge and cut off your thumb"
"Okay! Owwww!"

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 06 Aug 2010 16:54

Sanjay

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Aug 2010 17:33

but dont the democraft friendly think tanks(which are they?) have strategic thinkers to match the republican neocon set?

I think GW2's unsmart act was all playacting....inside he was sharp enough I feel. obama could be ulta, looks very sharp and cerebral but not fully so inside.

in any case, CEOs need not be the sharpest guy in the shed, but their team needs to be the best.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 06 Aug 2010 17:40

@Carl_T: "Obama is a great tactical thinker but probably not as strong when it comes to thinking strategically. "

Just kidding but those McKinsey folk having been telling us for umpteen years that "Strategy is an integrated set of tactics..." and other equally anodyne stuff.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 06 Aug 2010 19:27

Sanjay M wrote:Since when is Wolfowitz a strategic thinker? He's just a shill for the Israeli lobby who desperately wanted to invade Iraq. This led the Atlanticists to hound him, even after he left for the World Bank.

Gates is like Dronacharya - expert warmaster, but got stuck playing for the wrong team.
Obama is like Eklavya - "Please help me, Master Gates!"
"Alright, but first do a surge and cut off your thumb"
"Okay! Owwww!"

Wolfowitz was the main strategic brain behind Bush's FP. The prophet of neoconservatism, it was his "grand vision" that led to US power grabs in Iraq. Who are the fp ideologues in the Obama admin? None. It's surely not Clinton, definitely not Axelrod or Emmanuel, I don't know if Valerie Jarrett knows foreign policy. once Gates is gone, Obama is going to be the only guy in charge in the WH.

The dems may have strategic thinker-ideologues in think tanks but they're not in the admin.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 06 Aug 2010 21:41

^^^^ Err, carl, you forget easily the sharpest mind in the US senate - sri sri Joe Biden, recruited onto the presidential campaign ticket largely for his phoren policy experience only.

Yup, the same Joe Biden who went to TSP to receive his nishan-e-baki$$a$$tan award from the even sharper sri gilani only. LOL.

ShivaS · Post by **ShivaS** » 06 Aug 2010 21:49

Cosmo_R wrote:@Carl_T: "Obama is a great tactical thinker but probably not as strong when it comes to thinking strategically. "

Just kidding but those McKinsey folk having been telling us for umpteen years that "Strategy is an integrated set of tactics..." and other equally anodyne stuff.

If that is so
then 'Ad hoc is agile'

I sent a email to my boss with a signature quote of Spinster

"Some people mistake ad hoc for agile" and he was furious for spotting the obvious in his plans...

yantra · Post by **yantra** » 06 Aug 2010 23:03

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 266844.cms

Follows US Adm.Mike Mullen's observations on growing China threat, and Vietnam cozying up to India/US. No wonder China is wary of India-US-Vietnam axis that is quietly emerging.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 06 Aug 2010 23:44

Obama probably has his strategic instincts, but we don't really know what they. He operates in a system of two white-dominated parties Dems/Reps, both of whom compete for holding the reins of power in DC and by default, the world. There is no room for independent thought beyond the confines of dems Vs reps tug of war; Obama will be painted an even more of a "radical" than the reps pain him to be through their FOX news mouthpieces should he dare think independently of the what the majority white honchos in the Dems want him to say/do. At best, Obama lets Dems occupy the "we are so egalitarian onlee" space in US political spectrum when compared with the tea party and white-Christian nationalist political space owned by the reps. Blacks/Hispanics do constitute a fair amount of vote, and hence Dems benefit from a black face at the higher echelons of their leadership base. And certainly Obama is articulate, smart, and he sure can give good speeches; although those speeches are becoming tiring, and I get the feeling that even Obama is also sick and tired of them because he wants to talk something besides the feel good America, we are greatest, we are the best, we are this, we are that bla bla. On foreign policy, Obama has to espouse the views of heavy-weights like Zbig, HalfBright, NPA ayathollahs etc.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 06 Aug 2010 23:51

@ShivaS ^^^: "Some people mistake ad hoc for agile" and he was furious for spotting the obvious in his plans..."

Something more like this: "In the first hour of war, all the plans become worthless." or "When someone shoots at you, you make an ad hoc decision to agilely hit the ground".

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Aug 2010 06:58

Why India has mixed emotions about Obama

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2 ... bout_obama