JEM/SwamyG garus
Check the Parag Khanna book. Check predictioneers game. Check any geopolitical book.
That Parag Khanna guy thinks Poland would be a future power, more than Russia. But doesn't think India could be a even a stable regional power.
That doesn't mean this is bad for India. I would rather them underplay India than overplay it.
Geopolitical thread
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RamaY
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Re: Geopolitical thread
Parag Khanna is a dolt married to a Paki Motorhama. Any SDRE who might initially be inclined to take him seriously, has only to read/listen to him for three minutes to realize that he isn't worth the effort. Compared to this guy, C Raja Mohan, Siddharth Varadarajan etc. are 400% Swadeshi patriots!
The constant harping on Poland, of all places, seems decidedly surreal. Poland... what did it ever have? The epic height of its historical achievements was a second-rate European principality known as the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, which just about established a quasi-independent existence during a short period when its neighbours, Russia and Germany, were in hiatus or disarray. Very soon Russia and Germany were revitalized, the Grand Duchy of Warsaw folded, and Poland was squashed, never to be heard of again (except in the punchline to various ethnic jokes.)
It is clear that Parag cho-chweet-Munna is merely parroting the stuff he has rutto-ed in the lap of his guru, George Friedman. Friedman also puts forward the absurd prediction that the great global powers of the coming century will be Poland, Turkey and Japan!
But it is not mere nuttiness, it is not mere joking around. It is nonsense, of course, but it is nonsense being put forward with an agenda. Here is what I think.
Let us consider the thesis. Of all nations, Poland, Turkey and Japan are being feted by Friedman as the global powers of the 21st century. Meanwhile, China and India are hardly even mentioned.
Neglecting to mention China or India in a book ostensibly about prediction and prophecy, is a no-brainer. It is very easy to be proved wrong about what the elephants in the room might do next, and far safer to forecast the fates of predictable pomeranians. Then, if the pomeranians end up getting squashed, the prescient guru making the predictions can say... "oh, how was I to know the elephant would shift his bum, it was a force majeure!"
Of course, before the elephant actually moves, the guru feels comfortable describing that large, passive hulk as being "too big to succeed, too big to let fail" and with other such lame-brained platitudes. Basically he is taking the elephant's inertia for granted, and is utterly charmed meanwhile by the pomeranians' incessant barking.
But there's more to it than this. Let's look at Poland, Turkey and Japan.
What does a nation need to compete for the top spots on a global scale today?
1) Economic might combined with the aggressively cultivated potential for further economic growth.
2) Access to natural resources and the ability to ensure food and energy security.
3) A large population of young people, and the educational and economic infrastructure to turn them into a skilled workforce or disciplined fighting force.
4) A strong track record in science and technology, with an advanced research and industrial/manufacturing base to match.
5) Myriad other factors, including the civilizational legacy of imperial leadership, a national spirit that favours discipline and enterprise, plus other less tangible things. But the first four are must-haves.
Poland has zero of these. I mean, seriously... they may not be Rwanda but there's not much else to say about their candidacy for "global superpowerdom."
Turkey may have a civilizational legacy of the Ottoman Empire but that is vapourware compared to its lacklustre qualifications in 1, 2, 3 and 4.
Only Japan can be said to have at least 1 and 4 in some impressive measure besides an imperial legacy as well. However, its population is aging and its potential for further economic growth is scant... Japan's economy has been in the doldrums for a long time. And as far as energy security, it is completely, 400% at the mercy of Unkil's safeguarding the sea lanes from West Asia.
But wait. Look a little harder. What DO these three countries, on the Stratfor shortlist for global domination, have in common? What is it about Turkey, Poland and Japan that is similar?
The answer is apparent. By virtue of their strategic location all three of these countries are excellently placed to serve as "Unglis" for Unkil.
Poland, of course, can serve as a wedge between the increasingly-independent EU and a resurgent Russia. Japan is an aircraft carrier poised off the coast of China, North Korea and the Russian far east. And Turkey is another wedge between the Caucasian/Central Asian underbelly of Russia, and West Asia (specifically Syria and Iran.)
In these three nations, the US has its best geopolitical assets to mitigate the two greatest strategic nightmares feared by Bush-Wilsonians and Clinton-Wilsonians alike:
1) The SCO, a Russian-Chinese axis that expands influence in West Asia by including Iran, and shuts the West out of Central Asia entirely;
2) A Russian-EU axis that denies the US its traditional route of access to the Eurasian heartland.
Of course, there is a little more to the value these nations hold as Unkil's "Unglis" than simply geographic location. All three have power centers (democratic governments in Japan and Poland, and the army in Turkey) which have traditionally been more or less pro-Washington. And for all that these three countries might not be roaring engines of economic growth, they are stable enough that they will never turn into begging Pakistans.
And there lies the heart of the matter. If you look at the writings of Philip Noel-Baker, Olaf Caroe and others at the time of India's independence and beyond... the things those guys used to say about Pakistan then, are uncannily similar to the hype that George Friedman is blowing out his hole about Japan, Poland and Turkey today.
The Western promoters of Pakistan used almost exactly the same rhetoric when pushing for more Western influence, more Western aid, more Western support for Pakistan in the middle and late twentieth century. They, too, made firm predictions that Pakistan was going to be some kind of leading light of the Islamic world; a moderate Muslim state with strong, loyal warriors that was destined to dominate West, Central and South Asia while India withered or fragmented.
Remember a lament from a Paki on the TSP thread recently, in which he recounts how governments from Singapore to Morocco used to look up to Pakistan's leadership and guidance as the model of a strong, stable, newly independent nation? This was true in the 1950s and 1960s, true all the way until Indira Gandhi tore Pakistan in half and left the West gaping in horror!
And the reason why it was true, was because of the relentless propaganda used by the West to hype Pakistan into this "natural, enlightened-moderate leadership" role. Pakistan was a perfect Munna, a perfect "Ungli "for the West against the Soviets. But Washington and London had to sell Pakistan to the rest of the world as a nation that was strong, independent and pro-Western by choice, because being democratic and pro-Western was the right thing to do!
It is the most classic example of Wilsonian propaganda.
And it is what is being echoed in George Friedman's (and Parag Munna's) snake oil today.
If you read between the lines of what Friedman is writing, he is making the case that Japan, Poland and Turkey are so inherently powerful that they might become anti-Western tomorrow (and fight a World War III with America, LOL!)
This is nothing but the same argument that Noel-Baker, Owen Dixon, Clement Attlee and others used to convince John Foster Dulles that the US HAD TO SUPPORT Pakistan with all its weight. Because without such support, Pakistan, shining newborn champion of the Islamic world, a great geopolitical power-to-be, would go over to the wrong side and the West would lose out.
It is classic hype and alarmism in the Wilsonian mode. George Friedman is sending the same message to US policymakers that Pakistan's patrons were doing from London in the late 1940s and 1950s... but Friedman is doing it on the behalf of other, future "Unglis" that he wants the Americans to throw their weight behind and cultivate.
The most telling evidence in support of this conclusion is Friedman's silence about other nations. When the British patrons of Pakistan were selling Pakistan, they constantly referred to India dismissively if at all... a fractious and unstable mess that was likely to fall apart at any time, or worse, to have the "non-materialistic" Hindoo philosophy of its people overwhelmed and replaced by the vile Communism. In much the same way, Friedman is dismissive of India, China and Russia while he touts the goolies out of these three future Unglis... Turkey, Poland and Japan... which he apparently wants to sell to the GOTUS' drunk-tankers as bigger, better Pakistans for the coming century.
Never a better time than now, George, because the original "superpower" that your antecedents tried to hype... the original Ungli of Pakistan... has become infected with a case of syphilis that may yet prove terminal to its patrons.
The constant harping on Poland, of all places, seems decidedly surreal. Poland... what did it ever have? The epic height of its historical achievements was a second-rate European principality known as the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, which just about established a quasi-independent existence during a short period when its neighbours, Russia and Germany, were in hiatus or disarray. Very soon Russia and Germany were revitalized, the Grand Duchy of Warsaw folded, and Poland was squashed, never to be heard of again (except in the punchline to various ethnic jokes.)
It is clear that Parag cho-chweet-Munna is merely parroting the stuff he has rutto-ed in the lap of his guru, George Friedman. Friedman also puts forward the absurd prediction that the great global powers of the coming century will be Poland, Turkey and Japan!
But it is not mere nuttiness, it is not mere joking around. It is nonsense, of course, but it is nonsense being put forward with an agenda. Here is what I think.
Let us consider the thesis. Of all nations, Poland, Turkey and Japan are being feted by Friedman as the global powers of the 21st century. Meanwhile, China and India are hardly even mentioned.
Neglecting to mention China or India in a book ostensibly about prediction and prophecy, is a no-brainer. It is very easy to be proved wrong about what the elephants in the room might do next, and far safer to forecast the fates of predictable pomeranians. Then, if the pomeranians end up getting squashed, the prescient guru making the predictions can say... "oh, how was I to know the elephant would shift his bum, it was a force majeure!"
Of course, before the elephant actually moves, the guru feels comfortable describing that large, passive hulk as being "too big to succeed, too big to let fail" and with other such lame-brained platitudes. Basically he is taking the elephant's inertia for granted, and is utterly charmed meanwhile by the pomeranians' incessant barking.
But there's more to it than this. Let's look at Poland, Turkey and Japan.
What does a nation need to compete for the top spots on a global scale today?
1) Economic might combined with the aggressively cultivated potential for further economic growth.
2) Access to natural resources and the ability to ensure food and energy security.
3) A large population of young people, and the educational and economic infrastructure to turn them into a skilled workforce or disciplined fighting force.
4) A strong track record in science and technology, with an advanced research and industrial/manufacturing base to match.
5) Myriad other factors, including the civilizational legacy of imperial leadership, a national spirit that favours discipline and enterprise, plus other less tangible things. But the first four are must-haves.
Poland has zero of these. I mean, seriously... they may not be Rwanda but there's not much else to say about their candidacy for "global superpowerdom."
Turkey may have a civilizational legacy of the Ottoman Empire but that is vapourware compared to its lacklustre qualifications in 1, 2, 3 and 4.
Only Japan can be said to have at least 1 and 4 in some impressive measure besides an imperial legacy as well. However, its population is aging and its potential for further economic growth is scant... Japan's economy has been in the doldrums for a long time. And as far as energy security, it is completely, 400% at the mercy of Unkil's safeguarding the sea lanes from West Asia.
But wait. Look a little harder. What DO these three countries, on the Stratfor shortlist for global domination, have in common? What is it about Turkey, Poland and Japan that is similar?
The answer is apparent. By virtue of their strategic location all three of these countries are excellently placed to serve as "Unglis" for Unkil.
Poland, of course, can serve as a wedge between the increasingly-independent EU and a resurgent Russia. Japan is an aircraft carrier poised off the coast of China, North Korea and the Russian far east. And Turkey is another wedge between the Caucasian/Central Asian underbelly of Russia, and West Asia (specifically Syria and Iran.)
In these three nations, the US has its best geopolitical assets to mitigate the two greatest strategic nightmares feared by Bush-Wilsonians and Clinton-Wilsonians alike:
1) The SCO, a Russian-Chinese axis that expands influence in West Asia by including Iran, and shuts the West out of Central Asia entirely;
2) A Russian-EU axis that denies the US its traditional route of access to the Eurasian heartland.
Of course, there is a little more to the value these nations hold as Unkil's "Unglis" than simply geographic location. All three have power centers (democratic governments in Japan and Poland, and the army in Turkey) which have traditionally been more or less pro-Washington. And for all that these three countries might not be roaring engines of economic growth, they are stable enough that they will never turn into begging Pakistans.
And there lies the heart of the matter. If you look at the writings of Philip Noel-Baker, Olaf Caroe and others at the time of India's independence and beyond... the things those guys used to say about Pakistan then, are uncannily similar to the hype that George Friedman is blowing out his hole about Japan, Poland and Turkey today.
The Western promoters of Pakistan used almost exactly the same rhetoric when pushing for more Western influence, more Western aid, more Western support for Pakistan in the middle and late twentieth century. They, too, made firm predictions that Pakistan was going to be some kind of leading light of the Islamic world; a moderate Muslim state with strong, loyal warriors that was destined to dominate West, Central and South Asia while India withered or fragmented.
Remember a lament from a Paki on the TSP thread recently, in which he recounts how governments from Singapore to Morocco used to look up to Pakistan's leadership and guidance as the model of a strong, stable, newly independent nation? This was true in the 1950s and 1960s, true all the way until Indira Gandhi tore Pakistan in half and left the West gaping in horror!
And the reason why it was true, was because of the relentless propaganda used by the West to hype Pakistan into this "natural, enlightened-moderate leadership" role. Pakistan was a perfect Munna, a perfect "Ungli "for the West against the Soviets. But Washington and London had to sell Pakistan to the rest of the world as a nation that was strong, independent and pro-Western by choice, because being democratic and pro-Western was the right thing to do!
It is the most classic example of Wilsonian propaganda.
And it is what is being echoed in George Friedman's (and Parag Munna's) snake oil today.
If you read between the lines of what Friedman is writing, he is making the case that Japan, Poland and Turkey are so inherently powerful that they might become anti-Western tomorrow (and fight a World War III with America, LOL!)
This is nothing but the same argument that Noel-Baker, Owen Dixon, Clement Attlee and others used to convince John Foster Dulles that the US HAD TO SUPPORT Pakistan with all its weight. Because without such support, Pakistan, shining newborn champion of the Islamic world, a great geopolitical power-to-be, would go over to the wrong side and the West would lose out.
It is classic hype and alarmism in the Wilsonian mode. George Friedman is sending the same message to US policymakers that Pakistan's patrons were doing from London in the late 1940s and 1950s... but Friedman is doing it on the behalf of other, future "Unglis" that he wants the Americans to throw their weight behind and cultivate.
The most telling evidence in support of this conclusion is Friedman's silence about other nations. When the British patrons of Pakistan were selling Pakistan, they constantly referred to India dismissively if at all... a fractious and unstable mess that was likely to fall apart at any time, or worse, to have the "non-materialistic" Hindoo philosophy of its people overwhelmed and replaced by the vile Communism. In much the same way, Friedman is dismissive of India, China and Russia while he touts the goolies out of these three future Unglis... Turkey, Poland and Japan... which he apparently wants to sell to the GOTUS' drunk-tankers as bigger, better Pakistans for the coming century.
Never a better time than now, George, because the original "superpower" that your antecedents tried to hype... the original Ungli of Pakistan... has become infected with a case of syphilis that may yet prove terminal to its patrons.
Last edited by Rudradev on 10 Aug 2010 08:26, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Geopolitical thread
According to Friedman, Poland will align with the US, while Turkey and Japan would join forces for a surprise attack on the US.
This Turko-Japanese alliance sounds like a really nutty fantasy.
This Turko-Japanese alliance sounds like a really nutty fantasy.
Re: Geopolitical thread
It's all fiction. The only message that matters in his book is directed at the think-tankers and wonks of Washington... and it can be summarized as "put all your money on these three horses!"
I can just see it. After beating the tar out of PACCOM and CENTCOM, the combined Turko-Japanese fleet can put into sunny Cochin for some R&R and refueling. Of course, since they will probably not be using US$, they will have to pay us in baklavah and Game Boys.
I agree, that is the most spectacularly nutty part....Turkey and Japan would join forces for a surprise attack on the US.
This Turko-Japanese alliance sounds like a really nutty fantasy.
I can just see it. After beating the tar out of PACCOM and CENTCOM, the combined Turko-Japanese fleet can put into sunny Cochin for some R&R and refueling. Of course, since they will probably not be using US$, they will have to pay us in baklavah and Game Boys.
Last edited by Rudradev on 10 Aug 2010 08:43, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Geopolitical thread
We need some kind of thread re-organization. A new thread for "Social Divisions" should be created. Anyway, I'll post this to Geopolitics:
N.Y. bus ad showing mosque, burning WTC towers OK'd
Why build it there? Babur would be able to answer that.
N.Y. bus ad showing mosque, burning WTC towers OK'd
Why build it there? Babur would be able to answer that.
Re: Geopolitical thread
I think the reason he picked those three countries is because they are the periphery countries of Eurasia.
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abhishek_sharma
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Hari Seldon
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Re: Geopolitical thread
Glad to see sri george 'bheja' fried-man damage his credibility even more. Even better if he takes the likes of pan-parag along with him for the jolly ride down the toilet bowl.
End of the day, while these sthink-tank types can create illusions for a while, reality has a way of asserting itself only. Consider an OTish example. For yrs upon yrs the paschimi rating agencies kept down Yindia's sovereign rating inflating our real borrowing costs abroad. But the smart money in the west saw through the facade and when blue chip desi corporates did go abroad via ADRs and GDRs to raise capital, their cost of capital was vastly lower than what the country's artificially low credit rating would suggest. And look where the rating agencies have their cred today.
Similarly, when the sthink-tanks like stfartfour act cute and peg down desi credit rating in the geopol sweepstakes, know well that the smart folks who matter in policy circles (and whom the dumb herd eventually ends up following anyway) would do their own independent assessment and act accordingly. Only.
Jai ho.
End of the day, while these sthink-tank types can create illusions for a while, reality has a way of asserting itself only. Consider an OTish example. For yrs upon yrs the paschimi rating agencies kept down Yindia's sovereign rating inflating our real borrowing costs abroad. But the smart money in the west saw through the facade and when blue chip desi corporates did go abroad via ADRs and GDRs to raise capital, their cost of capital was vastly lower than what the country's artificially low credit rating would suggest. And look where the rating agencies have their cred today.
Similarly, when the sthink-tanks like stfartfour act cute and peg down desi credit rating in the geopol sweepstakes, know well that the smart folks who matter in policy circles (and whom the dumb herd eventually ends up following anyway) would do their own independent assessment and act accordingly. Only.
Jai ho.
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abhischekcc
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Re: Geopolitical thread
George Friedman should be mandatory reading - not for his 'insights', but for early indicators on what line thinking the US government wants to promote in the world of strategic think tanks and gurus.
His record is less than stellar in predicting any of the changes in the world since Stratfor was set up. However, he is a great counter propoganda operative.
I watched his short interview on his biook The next 100 years. He promotes the spiel that:
1. Japan, not China, is the center of gravity in Asia
2. Turkey and Japan will align
, and uses the Axis alignment of Germany and Japan as justification for this thinking. Adding that since both are secondary maritime powers (are they?), they will find it 'natural' to resist the US maritime power. (Not sure, but isn't this narative missing a miracle or something)
3. The most laughable is reason he gives for Poland being a 'natural' partner for US - that it is NOT a maritime power, hence the two countries do not have overlapping interests that may give rise to conflicts.
All of that noise was made just to say that US is now looking at Poland as a country to interfere with its neighbours. These unnamed neighbours are Germany and Russia.
Germany and Russia have moved very close to each other - financially, politically, and even military closeness may be possible in the near future.
A Russo-German alliance is the stuff that nightmares in Anglo Saxon world are made of. It means US-UK will become redundant to continental Europe. And US will lose power in the most developed part of the world other than itself.
Friedman's words should be read with caution, as what he is saying is that US will use Poland to interfere in the developing relations between Germany and Russia. This is very dangerous as the last time relations between Russia and Germany broke down, we had a world war. And incidentally, UK had used Poland for that same reason in that time of history.
US will use Poland to interfere in Russo-German relations, but justify it using 'rising Asia' excuse.
That is the real reason why US is promoting Poland as a counterwieght to the non-existent Turkish-Japanese grand maritime empire.
His record is less than stellar in predicting any of the changes in the world since Stratfor was set up. However, he is a great counter propoganda operative.
I watched his short interview on his biook The next 100 years. He promotes the spiel that:
1. Japan, not China, is the center of gravity in Asia
2. Turkey and Japan will align
, and uses the Axis alignment of Germany and Japan as justification for this thinking. Adding that since both are secondary maritime powers (are they?), they will find it 'natural' to resist the US maritime power. (Not sure, but isn't this narative missing a miracle or something)3. The most laughable is reason he gives for Poland being a 'natural' partner for US - that it is NOT a maritime power, hence the two countries do not have overlapping interests that may give rise to conflicts.
All of that noise was made just to say that US is now looking at Poland as a country to interfere with its neighbours. These unnamed neighbours are Germany and Russia.
Germany and Russia have moved very close to each other - financially, politically, and even military closeness may be possible in the near future.
A Russo-German alliance is the stuff that nightmares in Anglo Saxon world are made of. It means US-UK will become redundant to continental Europe. And US will lose power in the most developed part of the world other than itself.
Friedman's words should be read with caution, as what he is saying is that US will use Poland to interfere in the developing relations between Germany and Russia. This is very dangerous as the last time relations between Russia and Germany broke down, we had a world war. And incidentally, UK had used Poland for that same reason in that time of history.
US will use Poland to interfere in Russo-German relations, but justify it using 'rising Asia' excuse.
That is the real reason why US is promoting Poland as a counterwieght to the non-existent Turkish-Japanese grand maritime empire.
Re: Geopolitical thread
Thanks for bringing back the discussion.SwamyG wrote:I think the reason he picked those three countries is because they are the periphery countries of Eurasia.
Apart from being the periphery countries they also have the three religions of the world which can rally them.
Japan = Buddhist
Turkey = Islam
Poland = Catholic
This confluence of religion and geography - location will create dynamics that large nations can withstand the force of history but the smaller nations less than 250M population will need to fight for survival. This is race-religion-geography-economic-power dynamics
Re: Geopolitical thread
There are a series of clips of this chap on youtube, where he talks of various countries.
He of course sees the three big winners in the next hundred years as
1. The US.
2. Turkey
3. Poland benefiting as a buffer state from American investment in the same manner that scripted ROK's rise. Of course there is this implication that ROK's rise has nothing to do with the industriousness of its own people...
He speaks about India in one of those clips, and says that we are not even a country, but a british creation and that inter-regional tensions will continue to keep India occupied as the task of nation making continues. Specifically says that "some states develop ( in India) others choose not to"...
I am sure this was recorded while all the Me Mati shit was going on.
In fact after years of EJ and abdul instigation foreign interests may be looking at the majoritarian vector itself...
Oh by the way he thinks that by 2040 the US will put up nuclear powered laser battle stations to dominate the world..
Clearly the Empire grew out of the USAF...
He of course sees the three big winners in the next hundred years as
1. The US.
2. Turkey
3. Poland benefiting as a buffer state from American investment in the same manner that scripted ROK's rise. Of course there is this implication that ROK's rise has nothing to do with the industriousness of its own people...
He speaks about India in one of those clips, and says that we are not even a country, but a british creation and that inter-regional tensions will continue to keep India occupied as the task of nation making continues. Specifically says that "some states develop ( in India) others choose not to"...
I am sure this was recorded while all the Me Mati shit was going on.
In fact after years of EJ and abdul instigation foreign interests may be looking at the majoritarian vector itself...
Oh by the way he thinks that by 2040 the US will put up nuclear powered laser battle stations to dominate the world..
Clearly the Empire grew out of the USAF...
Re: Geopolitical thread
This is interesting. Can you elaborateD Roy wrote:
In fact after years of EJ and abdul instigation foreign interests may be looking at the majoritarian vector itself...
.
Re: Geopolitical thread
Do you mean the "Valley of the Wolves Iraq" movie?D Roy wrote:
I am sure this was recorded while all the Me Mati shit was going on.
.
Re: Geopolitical thread
EJ and abdul instigation have always been employed with a view to shaping the majoritarian vector haven't they? Surely no one realistically believed that indigenous Islamic or Christian Armies would *actually* overrun the subcontinent themselves. Not for a long time now anyway.Acharya wrote:This is interesting. Can you elaborateD Roy wrote:
In fact after years of EJ and abdul instigation foreign interests may be looking at the majoritarian vector itself...
.
The idea has been to undermine the Indian civilizational narrative by superimposing the Thapar/Nussbaum narrative. EJ/abdul instigation was a tool in this. It was used to "smoke out" the holdouts, goading them out into open where they could be isolated, demonized and ridiculed as "Hindu communalists" and "merchants of death" by adherents of the Thapar/Nussbaum/Arundhoti school.
Thus the fifth column usurped a chunk of the majoritiarian mindshare by *appearing* to stand for secularism and righteousness against the forces of bigotry. Meanwhile those who stood up for the Indian civilizational narrative were forced always to be apologetic, always on the defensive.
Re: Geopolitical thread
.[/quote]
This is interesting. Can you elaborate[/quote]
No this time over it is not about the commie narrative or ancient history or sekoolar. this time it is about using late medieval / early modern history and wannabeness/arriviste tendencies to divide the majority.
It is to make certain constituencies make a thinly veiled play for cornering resources whilst appealing to a "glorious past" although this time over the past is much much more recent.
It is also to induce a sense of having arrived in the post- liberalization phase vis a vis the other "backward" guys and "undesirables".
And the sense that as a geographic entity state you are being held back economically by others and that you really have enough "history" and "culture" to stake it out on your own.
an attempt to return to a time when there were many "defenders of the faith" but not enough "defenders of unity".
an attempt to convey a sense that you can have a " smaller hindoo kingdom even theocratic doing bhery bhery well economically" but not a "hindoo country".
The Eelam if we remember expelled 100,000 abduls and was a vicious "hindoo enterprise" till it got divided into EJ and Hindu Tamil camps and that eventually contributed to its downfall. And the Eelam was no friend of the idea of India or Bharat that is our motherland.
This is interesting. Can you elaborate[/quote]
EJ and abdul instigation have always been employed with a view to shaping the majoritarian vector haven't they? Surely no one realistically believed that indigenous Islamic or Christian Armies would *actually* overrun the subcontinent themselves. Not for a long time now anyway.
The idea has been to undermine the Indian civilizational narrative by superimposing the Thapar/Nussbaum narrative. EJ/abdul instigation was a tool in this. It was used to "smoke out" the holdouts, goading them out into open where they could be isolated, demonized and ridiculed as "Hindu communalists" and "merchants of death" by adherents of the Thapar/Nussbaum/Arundhoti school.
Thus the fifth column usurped a chunk of the majoritiarian mindshare by *appearing* to stand for secularism and righteousness against the forces of bigotry. Meanwhile those who stood up for the Indian civilizational narrative were forced always to be apologetic, always on the defensive.
No this time over it is not about the commie narrative or ancient history or sekoolar. this time it is about using late medieval / early modern history and wannabeness/arriviste tendencies to divide the majority.
It is to make certain constituencies make a thinly veiled play for cornering resources whilst appealing to a "glorious past" although this time over the past is much much more recent.
It is also to induce a sense of having arrived in the post- liberalization phase vis a vis the other "backward" guys and "undesirables".
And the sense that as a geographic entity state you are being held back economically by others and that you really have enough "history" and "culture" to stake it out on your own.
an attempt to return to a time when there were many "defenders of the faith" but not enough "defenders of unity".
an attempt to convey a sense that you can have a " smaller hindoo kingdom even theocratic doing bhery bhery well economically" but not a "hindoo country".
The Eelam if we remember expelled 100,000 abduls and was a vicious "hindoo enterprise" till it got divided into EJ and Hindu Tamil camps and that eventually contributed to its downfall. And the Eelam was no friend of the idea of India or Bharat that is our motherland.
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RamaY
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Re: Geopolitical thread
Awesome! One plausible explanation behind the need for fragmenting India.Acharya wrote: This confluence of religion and geography - location will create dynamics that large nations can withstand the force of history but the smaller nations less than 250M population will need to fight for survival. This is race-religion-geography-economic-power dynamics
why 250 million? It would be easy to convert/buy say 10-15% of vote bank (or e-CON-o-my) in a 250 million nation than say 1.3 billion strong nation.
Are there any other ideas?
Re: Geopolitical thread
Smaller country has problem in economic sustainment independently for long. Demographic assault will change and smaller countries cannot handle it.RamaY wrote:
Awesome! One plausible explanation behind the need for fragmenting India.
why 250 million? It would be easy to convert/buy say 10-15% of vote bank (or e-CON-o-my) in a 250 million nation than say 1.3 billion strong nation.
Are there any other ideas?
Re: Geopolitical thread
Rama garu:
Convert to what? Mindless consumers? India is already going that route. Why not 100 million? Why not 300 million?
Convert to what? Mindless consumers? India is already going that route. Why not 100 million? Why not 300 million?
Re: Geopolitical thread
Also Poland is the only Slavic country that is Catholic in a sea of Slavic countries. In that sense they are the Pakis of Eastern Europe. And you see that if you study Eastern Euroean history.
SwamyG, Please think the issue over. The 250M is a notional upperbound figure. Less than that demogrpahic dividend will not matter. And in future strength lies in numbers.
US is already suffering from the lack of replacement population of the baby boomer segment.
SwamyG, Please think the issue over. The 250M is a notional upperbound figure. Less than that demogrpahic dividend will not matter. And in future strength lies in numbers.
US is already suffering from the lack of replacement population of the baby boomer segment.
Re: Geopolitical thread
^^^ No. Poland is the largest Catholic Slav, but not the only one.
The problem with this guy is that he's still mentally in the Cold War, which would be perfectly okay even today but it doesn't fit into current US FP nor is it clear that US FP will take this direction in the future. Currently Obama's broad FP view is of "cooperation among great powers" which means improving relations with established great powers Russia and China which has the effect of increasing US leverage over them by offering them more benefits and thus reducing tension on the buffer states, and probably reducing their importance as well. Here is recent article saying similar things:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ng_georgia
The true buffer states in the future are going to be nations like Saudi Arabia which will be used to pressure Iran with whom there is no cooperation of course.
The problem with this guy is that he's still mentally in the Cold War, which would be perfectly okay even today but it doesn't fit into current US FP nor is it clear that US FP will take this direction in the future. Currently Obama's broad FP view is of "cooperation among great powers" which means improving relations with established great powers Russia and China which has the effect of increasing US leverage over them by offering them more benefits and thus reducing tension on the buffer states, and probably reducing their importance as well. Here is recent article saying similar things:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ng_georgia
The true buffer states in the future are going to be nations like Saudi Arabia which will be used to pressure Iran with whom there is no cooperation of course.
Re: Geopolitical thread
ramana garu: Yes, strength in numbers matters; one reason why in my books USA, China, India, Russia, Brazil will matter in the future. Next geography matters. That is where these three countries are interesting - they are at the borders of the Eurasia as per Friedman. India owing to its culture & polity is complaint even if it stayed 1.3 billion or become 10 mini-Indias. So why no talk of breaking up of China? They have fissures too, no?
Carl: All three countries can reminiscence on past glory or victimization.
Carl: All three countries can reminiscence on past glory or victimization.
Re: Geopolitical thread
China is the US munna since the 1840s. Try to look at the policy towards China from that time. And read up on Mary Knoll missionaries. And it was after George Marshall visited China in 1948 and stopped all support to KMT that Mao Tse Tung took off. Implication is that it s US policy goal to see a united large China in Asia.
Re: Geopolitical thread
I will try to read, but why did China become US's munna? Even in the 1840s?
Re: Geopolitical thread
They didnt. US took them on as munna from evil Europeans!
Re: Geopolitical thread
According to US China was subjugated by East India Company and hence deserved freedom. They thought also why not use China to subjugate the other asset of EIC - India.SwamyG wrote:I will try to read, but why did China become US's munna? Even in the 1840s?
That is the way they can revolt against the EIC/Queen and bring it down.
Last edited by svinayak on 10 Aug 2010 23:16, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Geopolitical thread
Flag of British East India Company from wiki
Flag of the Continental Army of US
And constant reference to East India Company even in Disney movie "Pirates of the Caribbean"
Flag of the Continental Army of US
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_flagAt the time of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776, the United States had no official national flag. The Grand Union Flag has historically been referred to as the "First National Flag"; although it has never had any official status, it was used early in the American Revolutionary War[48] by George Washington and formed the basis for the design of the first official U.S. flag. It closely resembles the British East India Company flag of the same era that was used from 1707, and an argument dating to Sir Charles Fawcett in 1937 holds that the Company flag indeed inspired the design.[49], in addition to Buckminster Fuller's mention of it in his book, Critical Path. However, the Company flag could have from 9 to 13 stripes, and was not allowed to be flown outside the Indian Ocean.[50] Both flags could have been easily constructed by adding white stripes to a British Red Ensign, a common flag throughout Britain and its colonies.
And constant reference to East India Company even in Disney movie "Pirates of the Caribbean"
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Re: Geopolitical thread
SwamyG garu,SwamyG wrote:Rama garu:
Convert to what? Mindless consumers? India is already going that route. Why not 100 million? Why not 300 million?
Pls think over it. Try to play a mind game for me.convert/buy say 10-15% of vote bank (or e-CON-o-my)
Assume that
1. you are a earth-e-sastra strategist.
2. your goal is to control pakistan
3. 5% of paki population believe in earth-e-sastra faith which is proselytisc in nature. also assume that 5% population acts as a vote bank.
4. you have good financial sources
5. pakistan is a pseudo-sekkular nation with three major national parties (groups)
what would you want to convert the remaining 95% pakistan into? followers of earth-e-sastra or mindless consumers or headless chicken or intellectual dhimmis...
then extrapolate your problem with different population sizes and workout your costs... you will reach some critical mass... the above post puts it at 250million... to be precise it could be 272,786,333; but does it change the overall discussion???
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Re: Geopolitical thread
Pls read my post on how PRC is nothing but Pakistan v2.0SwamyG wrote:ramana garu: Yes, strength in numbers matters; one reason why in my books USA, China, India, Russia, Brazil will matter in the future. Next geography matters. That is where these three countries are interesting - they are at the borders of the Eurasia as per Friedman. India owing to its culture & polity is complaint even if it stayed 1.3 billion or become 10 mini-Indias. So why no talk of breaking up of China? They have fissures too, no?
Carl: All three countries can reminiscence on past glory or victimization.
Re: Geopolitical thread
I do not know what you are trying to say. But government in the 21st century rely on Corporations; and Corporations care for bottom line. In order to achieve it, they need timid population and mindless consumers. It would not matter what deity they worshiped or which philosophy they followed as long as they continued to buy the merchandise. In India, the people by virtue of freedom will seek out different avenues to enrich them - spiritually and materialistically. That is unless a government is controlled by EJs. If it is controlled by EJs then converting Indians to Christianity would be paramount.what would you want to convert the remaining 95% pakistan into? followers of earth-e-sastra or mindless consumers or headless chicken or intellectual dhimmis...
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Re: Geopolitical thread
^
If what you say is correct why did HMG took over India from EIC???
Your thought process is limited by your world-view that religion/civilization lost its value/hold in the modern world. This world-view is fundamentally wrong and all data proves my point. Islam (a religion with narrow world view undermining humanism, independent will, and logic) is the fastest growing religion; people are trying to separate on ethnic and cultural lines and so on...
once you remove this constraint from your mind, you can see a concerted strategy by west using geopolitics as a tool for civilizational domination. consumerism is the new opium war.
If what you say is correct why did HMG took over India from EIC???
Your thought process is limited by your world-view that religion/civilization lost its value/hold in the modern world. This world-view is fundamentally wrong and all data proves my point. Islam (a religion with narrow world view undermining humanism, independent will, and logic) is the fastest growing religion; people are trying to separate on ethnic and cultural lines and so on...
once you remove this constraint from your mind, you can see a concerted strategy by west using geopolitics as a tool for civilizational domination. consumerism is the new opium war.
Re: Geopolitical thread
Rudradev wrote:
The idea has been to undermine the Indian civilizational narrative by superimposing the Thapar/Nussbaum narrative. EJ/abdul instigation was a tool in this. It was used to "smoke out" the holdouts, goading them out into open where they could be isolated, demonized and ridiculed as "Hindu communalists" and "merchants of death" by adherents of the Thapar/Nussbaum/Arundhoti school.
All excellent pointD Roy wrote:.
No this time over it is not about the commie narrative or ancient history or sekoolar. this time it is about using late medieval / early modern history and wannabeness/arriviste tendencies to divide the majority.
It is to make certain constituencies make a thinly veiled play for cornering resources whilst appealing to a "glorious past" although this time over the past is much much more recent.
Re: Geopolitical thread
Not really. Japan can be said to be peripheral. But Poland is very much within the Eurasian World Island, a key part of Mitteleuropa that gives onto other Heartland territories. Turkey is even deeper inside, and separates West Asia from Central Asia.SwamyG wrote:I think the reason he picked those three countries is because they are the periphery countries of Eurasia.
Re: Geopolitical thread
It's too bad we Indians can't broker a reconciliation between Japan and Russia, so that both can work together in containing China. Pak played a small role in Nixon's visit to China, and so it would be nice if India could play a role in getting Japan's Kan to visit Moscow.
From what I see, Japan is in serious pain/decline right now, like Britain, and so it would be useful for the Japanese to put aside the Kuriles dispute to have greater rapprochement with Russia. Otherwise, I have a feeling the Chinese will be putting Japan on the ropes, regardless of how much confidence Friedman has in them.
From what I see, Japan is in serious pain/decline right now, like Britain, and so it would be useful for the Japanese to put aside the Kuriles dispute to have greater rapprochement with Russia. Otherwise, I have a feeling the Chinese will be putting Japan on the ropes, regardless of how much confidence Friedman has in them.
Re: Geopolitical thread
Rama garu: In tamil they say "arandvan kannukku irrundadhuelam paeyi" {meaning, not translation: To the petrified shadows are ghosts}. I know the famous quip in reply to such adages that involves paranoia.
Can you show the data points and how you connect them? If I understand you correctly, across several threads, your view is that USA is keeping India down or is trying to break it into pieces because of religious reasons. Let me know if I misunderstood you. Else, I am deeply interested in your points on the graph and how you are connecting (extrapolating).
Can you show the data points and how you connect them? If I understand you correctly, across several threads, your view is that USA is keeping India down or is trying to break it into pieces because of religious reasons. Let me know if I misunderstood you. Else, I am deeply interested in your points on the graph and how you are connecting (extrapolating).
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Re: Geopolitical thread
They want to break Indian civilization as we know. Indian civilization, culture, and so called Hinduism are inseparable.
Similarly modern (not native) north American civilization, culture, and religion are inseparable. That is why it took them centuries to disband slavery, adopt universal franchise etc. The continuing debate on abortion, gay marriages, etc is continuation of their theological elite/population base.
That doesn't mean USA cannot turn dharmic in say 786 years. But until then what I say across threads is more realistic than your worldview.
Did you ever introspect on their need for materialistic wealth creation at the cost of other nations/regions? It is foolish to think Adam Smith fell from the apple tree one fine day and invented self interest.
Did you ever ponder why USA did not try to entice India like it did with China? If communist PRC could become american ally then it shouldn't have been that difficult for USA to entice India, right? USA could have made an offer to IG that she couldn't refuge in 1972 like nukes, UNSC membership etc...
Even now, I will give you the benefit of doubt. Could you please come up with a coherent summary of USA foreign policy vis-a-vis India since 1990s, if not earlier?
Similarly modern (not native) north American civilization, culture, and religion are inseparable. That is why it took them centuries to disband slavery, adopt universal franchise etc. The continuing debate on abortion, gay marriages, etc is continuation of their theological elite/population base.
That doesn't mean USA cannot turn dharmic in say 786 years. But until then what I say across threads is more realistic than your worldview.
Did you ever introspect on their need for materialistic wealth creation at the cost of other nations/regions? It is foolish to think Adam Smith fell from the apple tree one fine day and invented self interest.
Did you ever ponder why USA did not try to entice India like it did with China? If communist PRC could become american ally then it shouldn't have been that difficult for USA to entice India, right? USA could have made an offer to IG that she couldn't refuge in 1972 like nukes, UNSC membership etc...
Even now, I will give you the benefit of doubt. Could you please come up with a coherent summary of USA foreign policy vis-a-vis India since 1990s, if not earlier?
Re: Geopolitical thread
Friedman's 100 year predictions are laughable. China and India both will be the top two powers by the end of 21st century, if they can maintain peace and not bite anything that they cannot chew and digest. The US and EU will be hard at work to make sure that some conflicts do break out, if they want to maintain white supremacy. I think in his racist mind he cannot comprehend or does not want to believe that powers really can be shifted from white to non-white hands. Personally, I think he should stick to 5-10 year predictions.
Re: Geopolitical thread
>>>>>They want to break Indian civilization as we know.
Can you provide the proof? I can understand from a competitive stand point any entity will preserve its supremacy. We see it in business and human life.
>>>>>Indian civilization, culture, and so called Hinduism are inseparable.
Agreed.
>>>>>>>Similarly modern (not native) northamerican civilization, culture, and religion are inseparable.
Quite possible.
>>>>> The continuing debate on abortion, gay marriages, etc is continuation of their theological elite/population base.
That is just vote capturing tactics.
>>>>>That doesn't mean USA cannot turn dharmic in say 786 years. But until then what I say across threads is more realistic than your worldview.
What is my world view?
>>>>Did you ever introspect on their need for materialistic wealth creation at the cost of other nations/regions?
Are you saying their moham on materialism stems from their religion?
Can you provide the proof? I can understand from a competitive stand point any entity will preserve its supremacy. We see it in business and human life.
>>>>>Indian civilization, culture, and so called Hinduism are inseparable.
Agreed.
>>>>>>>Similarly modern (not native) northamerican civilization, culture, and religion are inseparable.
Quite possible.
>>>>> The continuing debate on abortion, gay marriages, etc is continuation of their theological elite/population base.
That is just vote capturing tactics.
>>>>>That doesn't mean USA cannot turn dharmic in say 786 years. But until then what I say across threads is more realistic than your worldview.
What is my world view?
>>>>Did you ever introspect on their need for materialistic wealth creation at the cost of other nations/regions?
Are you saying their moham on materialism stems from their religion?
Re: Geopolitical thread
^^^^ Well said RamaY
US policy is a continuation of Anglo policy of yesteryears. Canada, Australia, NZ and even todays US are daughters of the empire (there was a break between the Abe Lincoln and Roosevelt years). The dutch scandinavians are the cousins.
India to them is the epitome of the "other" from every aspect. India is the nation that truly leads to individual freedom through the most subtle of knowledge.
While the war against India is not being fought directly, it is being fought through multiple proxies.
Maybe it is me but I belive that these folks view India as the biggest threat of all. China is now a second class copy of theirs
US policy is a continuation of Anglo policy of yesteryears. Canada, Australia, NZ and even todays US are daughters of the empire (there was a break between the Abe Lincoln and Roosevelt years). The dutch scandinavians are the cousins.
India to them is the epitome of the "other" from every aspect. India is the nation that truly leads to individual freedom through the most subtle of knowledge.
While the war against India is not being fought directly, it is being fought through multiple proxies.
Maybe it is me but I belive that these folks view India as the biggest threat of all. China is now a second class copy of theirs