Prasad wrote:
Nope. I'm not overwhelmed by american media reports at all. The pakistanis can and will reign in the taliban if it is in their interest. However, they arent doing so right now because they can keep crying to the americans who will continue to take hits in afghanistan and keep paying the pakis in the hope that they'll reel them in. At the same time, the pakistanis are also getting hit, not by the taliban that they have some semblance of control over but by the so-called bad taliban which doesn't seem to have any love lost for the pak army.
Sorry. I think you actually are being overwhelmed by American media reports.
I note that your post divides up the Taliban into "Taliban" and "so called bad Taliban".
Why are the "so called bad Taliban" bad? Why have the Pakistanis chosen not to rein them in despite being hit? Why are the "Plain vanilla Taliban" not described as bad? How would the Pakistani army, which has not managed to rein in the "so called bad Taliban" suddenly rein them in after the Americans leave. After all - you have yourself said that the Pakistanis will rein in the plain vanilla Taliban after the Americans leave - so that will be a job that they have to do - a job that the Pakistanis (you know how trust worthy they are) are promising to do.
So if the Pakistanis get busy "reining the Taliban in" after the Americans go, how will they suddenly acquire the ability to rein in the bad Taliban?
The Taliban, good or bad, are under pressure from the Americans right now. That pressure from the Americans will vanish overnight when they leave. What sort of confidence is there that the Taliban will then sit back and accept Pakistani control - especially when they have seen off the Americans?
I believe that you are leaving out a whole huge segment of reality in your simplistic assessment. That simplistic assessment is exactly the assessment that is being fed by Pakistan and broadcast by the American media and is as follows:
"The Taliban only want foreigners to leave their lands. The day the foreigners go the Taliban will become peaceful"
This is an assertion being made by Pakistan. Anyone is welcome to believe it and take it as the absolute truth. You seem to have bought into this story, but the likelihood of that happening is only a percentage - not a certainy.
That leaves us with two possibilities for the future
1. Pakistan is embroiled in a war to keep the Taliban off mainland Pakistan and a fight to keep either keep the Durand line intact, or to control Afghanistan so that Pakistan has control on the lands to the north of the Durand line. Either way it has to be fought and actual control has to be exerted. Pakistanis have to pay money to quieten the tribes and the US will have to continue paying Pakistan for that. But Pakistan will certainly not have a "quiet western border"
2) The second possibility is as you say that "Afghanistan is settled" and Pakistan's western border suddenly goes quiet. In this situation, Afghanistan will still require trade and goods and they have no economy of their own other than opium. All goods have to come via Pakistan and Pakistan is friendly with the Pashtun Taliban who wil recieve the goods and money from the Pakistanis in this peacefully settled state. And they will have to distribute the goods and money to all corners of Afghanistan - of which 40% does not consist of Pashtuns but of other ethnic minorities. Those ethnic minorities have, in the recent past been brutally suppressed by the Pakistan supported Taliban and in this scenario they will be getting free money and trade from the same Taliban who will gladly share the loot with them.
The "bad Taliban" - the people who Pakistanis have double crossed and handed to the US and who are fighting to establish an Islamic state in Pakistan will suddenly become happy and brotherly after the US goes and undesrand the goodness of Pakistanis and lay down their arms.
In this fairy tale scenario, the US will pay Pakistan. Pakistan will pay the Afghan Taliban Pashtuns who are their friends. Those friends will pay the Tajiks and Hazaras and others (whom they had previously ruthlessly suppressed) and the whole region will live happily ever after, and then Pakistan can concentrate on fighting India.
The Americans are being asked to believe scenario 2. You too seem to believe that. I don't. That's all.