Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 2010

[shiv]

but the strain on the city infrastructure and the panic created are immense (or so the studies say)

These are the parts that I have a problem with. I will try and explain. Infrastructure in a city like Bangalore is so stretched that some areas (roads just get shut down for short periods of time. Typically it is a half a day or one (due to ridiculous only in India reasons). Brigade road will get shut down. By the time radiation levels are discovered to be high - about 5000 people will have got contaminated and will need washing down, but for the authorities the main problem will be to dump stuff on the radiation contaminated areas and then physically cart it away for disposal. The public response that we get in India for this kind of stuff and the total lack of panic will bring tears of pride to anyone who watches. This has got to be one of the most unselfish nations on earth.

The area immediately around that will be shut down. But the rest will say "You want to shut us down. Balls, We will just carry on"

And if it happens once - any suspicious looking man, woman or child will be stopped by the public anywhere in India and strip searched. Not enough policemen no? Public must do the security.

These are all dangerous things for Pakistan to do. Pakistan escapes because the level of public anger is not high. The highest public anger has been reached with Mumbai. Public anger really does reflect on Indian actions, believe it or not. A lot of crap is written on this forum about media and elite and other stuff. A significant part of what is written is blinding brilliant white ignorance.

[Lalmohan]

i dont disagree, but i fear that isolation, decontamination etc., are all much more complex in the indian context. casualties will be high

if i go with your mango peepul theorem, then panic will be wider outside of india... with the usual consequences for trade, etc.

i cant recall if Indian redline on NFU includes this scenario or not

[Manishw]

Allah has his own ways to punish.

Allah sees all and is all-knowing. He is rewarding the pious pakarabs with bountiful of water so that they stop complaining.

Why don't we get into some CBM and give Pakistan what they have been crying hoarse for a year.Open the gates of the dams in Kashmir and release water.Of course we must let it be known that this is a one time goodwill gesture only and won't be repeated again.

[ramana]

the problem with JDAM is not bum-blast, it is dirty-rads
even 1kg of Pu blasted with RDX will SHUT DOWN a whole metropolis

How long it took Nagasaki and Hiroshima to re-emerge? This JDAM scare is just that.

[negi]

Given the kind of premium we put against lives of our citizens I doubt if a suitcase/JDAM attack would elicit any response from Dilli.

[Ameet]

Pakistan flood toll rises but international aid fails to flow

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/au ... tional-aid#

Oxfam said the UN's financial tracking system showed that as of August 9, governments had committed less than $45m, with an additional $91m pledged.

India, Pakistan's much larger and wealthier neighbour, has not offered any aid or assistance at all.

After the earthquake that devastated Pakistan-administered Kashmir five years ago, India gave 25 tonnes of food, medicine, tents, blankets and plastic sheets. This time Delhi has confined itself to sending a letter of condolence.

[ramana]

Call for more aid for flood-hit Pakistan: BBC
...

Affected Region per BBC

Can someone plot TSPA/PAF locations on this map and make an assessment?

Thanks.

Also when aid for rebuilding starts from the US watch for which areas are getting rebuilt.

[shiv]

In our discussion about the Pakistanis army and its alleged rationality and the so called irrationality of the Taliban I think a lot of people on the forum have not seen. or have forgotten the old discussions about Islamism.

I have a few of my own thoughts archived.

First a post from August 18th 2004

the thought occurs to me that Islamic communities are a human societal analog of a micelle - a suspension of oil droplets in water. The "core" of each droplet is oil that does not mix at all with water, but the mixture is aided and stabilized by the presence of a substance that forms a little coating, a cover that is prefectly comfortable with the oil on the inner surface and equally comfortable with the water on the outside.

To get at the oil, you have to break the cover - the "moderate, enlightened" cover that is able to exist with both. If you fear to break the cover, the you will not get at the oil.

It follows that "Enlightened moderation" is the ability to be an outright bigoted Islamist in your heart while appearing to be a moderate citizen of this world - biding your time until it is expedient for you to make others submit.

To illustrate how the society structure itself I had created two rather gaudily painted graphics

Dark green would be Taliban. Pale green Pakistani army
Islamist oil droplet


Fig 2: Description of oil droplet colors

[Raghavendra]

Ready to act against Hafiz Saeed, give concrete evidence : Pakistan http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_re ... an_1421907

Send free bags of cement with next dossier

[Amber G.]

Every N-bomb/JDAM has their unique signature traceable to the country of origin. So what plausible deniability we are talking about ? I see the whole discussion doesnt cut ice.

That's another point. As far as I know even a crude radioactive device (a real JDAM and not a Pak nuke being posed as a JDAM) still leaves behind telltale radioactive signatures that can be traced back to the source.

Slightly OT but at present "nuclear forensics and attribution" field (at least in US) needs more experts... IIRC to APS and AAAS, (about 2 years ago reportedly) said that there were less 'than 50 experts' (US wanted to hire about 35 PhD's to work in this field, as the old were retiring etc, but their budget was cut and they were complaining that they needed more).. One can use, say ratio of U to P isotopes and telltale signature impurities erbium or iron residues, to pin point the the nuclear reactors products ... One can also pin-point where fuel pellets were produced (eg, oxygen-18 to oxygen-16 varies by region) or even the route it traveled (pollen and spores - if we caught it before it went boom)... but biggest problem is that we don't have detail 'data base' .. a good DNA expert is of limited use if we don't have samples to match with it!.. Far from a good 'data bank' at present, at least according to that story..(Even some European sources, (in addition to Russia and China) were not providing the data as they t considered it a trade secret)

[Lalmohan]

^^^ well, atleast you can eliminate some of the sources

[chetak]

India, Pakistan's much larger and wealthier neighbour, has not offered any aid or assistance at all.

After the earthquake that devastated Pakistan-administered Kashmir five years ago, India gave 25 tonnes of food, medicine, tents, blankets and plastic sheets. This time Delhi has confined itself to sending a letter of condolence.

Hope that the letter has gone postage due.

[Amber G.]

To illustrate how the society structure itself I had created two rather gaudily painted graphics

Dark green would be Taliban. Pale green Pakistani army
Islamist oil droplet

Shivji - Nice work. Do you, or anyone else, have any data/poll for Pak (and other places) (statistically - poll results - how they identify themselves). It will be nice if someone takes that poll and publish the result..Can some one suggest it to Gallup or some other organization or take it up as a research project... Any Pak-lurkers could you take that poll in your forum?

[ManuT]

Taliban = "retrogressive forces". Pakistan= "not retrogressive, progressive onlee" This is pure Americanitis.

This seemed me like 'the chance of 1 in million talk.' Which I concluded 'there is still chance.'

Yet the wording of my sentence was enough to make that insinuation real enough for you to issue a denial. 

To be more accurate it was a clarification and not a denial. Clarification, because we not sitting across a table.

But do you think the ISI is separate from the Pakistani army, with the ISI being retrogressive and the Pakistani army "not retrogressive"?
 

To paraphrase, all the thieves look the same to me.

[hnair]

India, Pakistan's much larger and wealthier neighbour, has not offered any aid or assistance at all.

After the earthquake that devastated Pakistan-administered Kashmir five years ago, India gave 25 tonnes of food, medicine, tents, blankets and plastic sheets. This time Delhi has confined itself to sending a letter of condolence.

Hope that the letter has gone postage due.

That article is filled with more than usual bile

But while no aid was forthcoming, the Indian army today sought the help of the Pakistan military to locate the bodies of 28 Indian soldiers who were swept across the provisional border in Kashmir by a raging Himalayan river.

A spokeswoman for the Pakistani High Commission in London said she was "not surprised" by India's stance and declined to criticise the international response: "Every country has its own priorities. A lot of other countries have offered to help."

Abdul Basit, foreign ministry spokesman in Islamabad, said: "So far, there is no aid from India for the calamity." He declined to comment further. A senior Pakistani official said: "We are not expecting anything (from India). It does seem a bit strange. Even just as a goodwill gesture, it would be important."

After the earthquake that devastated Pakistan-administered Kashmir five years ago, India gave 25 tonnes of food, medicine, tents, blankets and plastic sheets. This time Delhi has confined itself to sending a letter of condolence.

Meanwhile, instead of aid, Indian newspapers have focused on how Indian commerce could benefit by exporting sugar and cotton to a stricken Pakistan.

A result of "tactical brilliance" at its best: piss off the one country that can make a difference on the ground. All for the pleasure of a few thugs in uniform.

[Prem]

the problem with JDAM is not bum-blast, it is dirty-rads
even 1kg of Pu blasted with RDX will SHUT DOWN a whole metropolis

How long it took Nagasaki and Hiroshima to re-emerge? This JDAM scare is just that.

Reg JDAM,
There is simple way to cut the knot. Few Hours latter from JDAM attack, at least 40-50 Bums explode over Poakland and the enrgy resources in ME . talks, invetigation, enquiries etc all can be done latter to find out who is the culprit. The instant retaliation take care of all kind of outblown plausible denialbilty scenarios. And then BLA etc are eager to get rid of Pakjabis in ernest.

[svinayak]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkmwvwHWlcU

PBSNewsHour | August 10, 2010
In other news Tuesday, Pakistna floods

[Brad Goodman]

Seriously there is no harm in sending few plastic sheets & water filteration equipment all stamped Made in India on it.

[chetak]

Seriously there is no harm in sending few plastic sheets & water filteration equipment all stamped Made in India on it.

They specifically request, nay demand that no donated item carries the made in India tag.

Seriously, just look at what is happening.

They made an uproar when they were not included in the IPL.

They have nasty comments when ignore them during their floods.

It might pay us a rich foreign policy dividend if we continued to ignore them and not respond to their pinpricks.

[Manishw]

Seriously there is no harm in sending few plastic sheets & water filteration equipment all stamped Made in India on it.

Why not send the W.K.K's, the radical kashmiris and the puke sympathizers aka the fifth columnists to help out the pukes in their time of need.
How many donations have come to the victims of terrorism and the Kashmiri pandits, may I ask sir, no need to be kind to these people.Think of our own people only. If anything water is being sent with Allahs blessings so it shows what Allah wants, better to follow Allah's wishes and open the gates of our dams on the Paki side if at all we want to contribute.

[sanjaykumar]

India should send An 32 escorted by MiG 29s and Su 30s to drop relief supplies. Why should these people (who were Indians 63 years ago) suffer needlessly because of Islamist megalomaniacs.

It will be moral and diplomatic support with a sideorder of humiliation.

[Manishw]

^^^
The islamist megalomaniacs were also Indians 63 years ago why not help them too? Humiliation to such thick skinned people is not possible, maybe in the very short term, but after that they will be bouncing back pretty soon.
If we have the money to burn, why not remove the 1000 rupees tax on pilgrims visiting 'Mata Vaishno Devi shrine', imposed by the secular Govt in J & k apart from the suggestions put forth by me above regarding helping victims of terrorism?
Basically forget about helping them, there is plenty of helping reqd. in India if we care to look around and this situation (of helping our own) has been created largely by Pukes.
At the end remember the name of the thread you are posting in " Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP)"

[tejas]

Allah, the merciful and beneficient has sent these floods to the land of the pure. Any donations would therefore be un-Islamic and I fear would upset minority sensibilities in India. Therefore I say send and do NOTHING.

[Manishw]

^^^ Amen

[Manishw]

Heck what sort of karma does my nation have to live through?

Getting the message to 1.2 billion people involves a **lot** of repetition.

No doubt it is a very tedious and cumbersome work but is better than playing Taqqiya. No?

[Prem]

Military Official Says U.S. Can’t Send More Helicopters To Pakistani Flooding Disaster Due To Afghan War
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/08/11/mil ... elicopter/

However, the Washington Post reporters that one key element of the U.S. response — Chinook transport helicopters — are in short supply to be sent to Pakistan, because they are assisting troops in combat in Afghanistan. One unnamed U.S. official tells the Post that sending additional helicopters would “require a political decision in Washington” because “it’s not like we have a great surplus of helicopters in theater that are not engaging“:
Pakistan wants the United States to supply immediately dozens more helicopters and significantly more money and supplies to help deal with the widespread flooding that has affected at least 14 million people there, senior Pakistani officials said Monday. The United States has already diverted six Chinook transport helicopters from the Afghanistan war to Pakistan over the past 10 days for rescue missions and aid delivery. [...]A senior U.S. military official said transfer of additional helicopters, which are in short supply in Afghanistan, would require a political decision in Washington. “Do they exist in the region? Yes,” he said. “Are they available? No.”It’s a question of risk mitigation,” the official said. “Helicopter lift is critical to the mission” in Afghanistan, where road transport is difficult and dangerous, he said. “It’s not like we have a great surplus of helicopters in theater that are not engaging.”

[Prem]

Grandmother, 70, saved from Pakistan floods by 'swimming cow'
A 70-year-old grandmother was saved from flash floods in Pakistan by her "swimming cow", which carried her for hours through surging waters before before leading her to safety

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... g-cow.html

( its time to act Paki and halal the cow by sharp knife to say thank to Allah)

Zainab Bibi was one of more than 10 million left homeless by the floods, but spared the fate of more than 1,600 believed to have died in the disaster which has devastated vaste swathes of Khyber, Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh provinces. Mrs Bibi was swept away from her 14 children and 16 grandchildren as she slept in the farm yard of their home in Kot Addu, near Muzzafargarh in Southern Punjab. "I was sleeping in the courtyard near the cattle pen while my sons and their families were present on the roof-top when a gush of water threw me up. "Moments later, Bhoori came from nowhere and I clung to her neck. We floated around for many hours and it was around morning that I finally felt ground under my feet," Mrs Bibi told Pakistan's Dawn newspaper. "It was Bhoori that brought me to a dry spot from where our neighbours brought us here," she said from a relief camp close to Muzaffargarh. She believes her 30 missing children and grandchildren have also been saved and said she hoped she would be reunited with them soon. "I have made a pledge that once all of us have been reunited, I will first go to [pray at] the shrine of Baba Pir Mitha with my children before returning to my village," she added

[Mihaylo]

India should send An 32 escorted by MiG 29s and Su 30s to drop relief supplies. Why should these people (who were Indians 63 years ago) suffer needlessly because of Islamist megalomaniacs.

It will be moral and diplomatic support with a sideorder of humiliation.

May I add, let one An 32 be escorted by 3 squadrons of Mig 29s and Su 30 MKIs each. The An 32 can help the people affected by the floods and the Mig 29s and Su30 MKIs can help the Islamist megalomaniacs wanting to see their 72

[Manishw]

^^^ Much better idea.

[r_subramanian]

So near yet so far - Pakistan may have to reschedule external debts soon!
Yesterday the on-line edition of Business Recorder (of Pakistan) carried an editorial stating that "... the outstanding debt of Pakistan, and its servicing, is growing at a rapid pace, raising questions about its sustainability and the negative impact it could have on the prospects of the economy". It also mentioned the possibility of Pakistan taking the first step towards loan default (i.e. rescheduling of debts).

Mounting external debt and liabilities
Though the current account of the country has improved substantially during the outgoing financial year, the outstanding debt of Pakistan, and its servicing, is growing at a rapid pace, raising questions about its sustainability and the negative impact it could have on the prospects of the economy.
...
Although we hate to say this, but the possibility cannot be ruled out that Pakistan may have to opt for a rescheduling of loans, within a year or two
...

link
There is so much talk of several hundred million dollars of emergency assitance (and probably more billions to follow for reconstruction) for flood relief. I am concerned this floods would be used as an excuse to wriggle out of Pakistan's various commitments to IMF and to put off the eventual day of default.

[Brad Goodman]

Sir my idea was send few relief items just as lip service same way as they send a lifafa of condolence. Sure we can give few drops of milk to the serpant since its nagpanchami this week.

[Karna_A]

A) Nuke Pakistan in retaliation, and escalate to an all-out nuclear war in which far more than Mumbai or Bengalooru are destroyed?

B ) Take Ilyas Kashmiri at his word that 313 brigade carried out the attack with Taliban aid/protection, and nuke Kabul or elsewhere in Afghanistan?

C) Take military action against Pakistan below the nuclear threshold, while the West screams at us to cease and desist because Pakistan is their heroic ally and their best hope of securing any missing nukes? Any military action could easily be escalated by Pakistan to nuclear conflict, so this runs the same risks as "A".


Withdrawal of the US from AfPak gives the Pakis a new level of operational freedom, and the return of the Taliban to Kabul gives the Pakis a second degree of deniability which they could potentially use to engage in real nuclear terrorism against India.

Please feel free to criticize the scenario if you find holes in it.

US is not going to withdraw from AFG in next 20-30 years. Here is why.
It takes a $1 million for a 1 soldier to be in AFG. Most of the expenses of $1 million are recycled back to US, like combat pay to servicemen, contractors, equipment bought from US companies etc.
Only fuel costs, payment to TSP and armaments used go waste which is around 25% of total.
With better transportation, it will be brought down between 500k-750K per soldier.
That means in $10 billion around 15K-20K soldiers can stay there, out of which only $2.5 billion is going waste.

US Defence budget is 500 billion at present. That means Afghan operation will cost around 2% of the defence budget and even less in future.
Since Afpak is the only theatre with any real action in the world in forseeable future, this is considered required training budget for its armed forces. Where else in world can US test its armed drone technology on live targets every day?
How about anti-mine vehicles to test against IEDs with Iraq gone?
No sensible army wants its soldiers to become Colonels without facing a single hostile bullet.
I can bet with anyone on BRF Forum that come 2020, 10k-20K US soldiers will still be in AFG. All calculations should be based on that.

[Prasad]

Don't we have enough people at home who might need the same stuff some are saying that we should send to pukistan? Your own countrymen will be grateful. We don't need the pukis to feel that way.

[svinayak]

That means in $10 billion around 15K-20K soldiers can stay there, out of which only $2.5 billion is going waste.

I can bet with anyone on BRF Forum that come 2020, 10k-20K US soldiers will still be in AFG. All calculations should be based on that.

Any troop level at 10k-20k is sustainable. But troop level at 100k-200k is no sustainable like it is now.
The question is can the region be stabilized with 10k-20k troops with Pakistan also going - uncertain and unstable with increasing population in 10 years.
The pop is going to hit 250 M and more after 2020. Nothing is static in Pakistan - especially after 10 years

[Rudradev]

Bottomline: If a JDAM does not cross the thresh hold of the status quo power such as India then, the country doesn't deserve to be in the comity of nations.

Agreed. But the fearful thing is, there was once a time when we would have said the same for an attack like Mumbai 26/11 as well.

[A_Gupta]

Trivia:
http://criticalppp.com/archives/21090
The protests in London against Zardari should apparently have been headlined:
Hizb-ut-Tahrir protest against Zardari

[Rudradev]

Therefore, inaction after 26/11 did not come as a surprise. Our fertile mind can invent enough solid reasons why keeping quiet is a better option. Our chanakianness lies, at least for a simple SDRE mind like mine, not in avenging attacks on us but in finding convoluted reasons to postpone retaliation.

And that is why I wonder how we will fail to postpone retaliation with more convoluted reasons when the next attack takes place... even if it is a JDAM, especially one executed with plausible deniability of the degree that will be afforded by a new Taliban government in Kabul. We seem to continuously redefine our threshold of pain and find new justifications every time.

[Gus]

An email chain is doing the rounds in my office DL...started by a Paki...about how this tragedy is worse than the tsunami+PoK quake + Haiti quake combined. Some responses about showing support etc by well meaning or WKKite Indians...

[Gerard]

UN launches $459m Pakistan flood appeal

[svinayak]

at least for a simple SDRE mind like mine, not in avenging attacks on us but in finding convoluted reasons to postpone retaliation

And that is why I wonder how we will fail to postpone retaliation with more convoluted reasons when the next attack takes place... even if it is a JDAM, especially one executed with plausible deniability of the degree

We are doomed in history and we are toast for the rest of the history