Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 2010

[negi]

HNair my point is GoI has failed in more elementary areas so why indulge in BP increasing exercise over flood relief ? Also giving relief aid is different from financial assistance there is only so much TSPA/GoP can do by diverting sacks of wheat and tents . For instance amidst all this hoo ha we have for all these years given TSP the MFN status, it already makes more moolah there , a million or so dollar worth of food grains, tents and medi kits don't count . Back in 2005 idiots in GoI pledged $25 million as financial aid aside from a relief package in the name of earthquake victims for TSP .

[ramana]

"ramana
...

Can someone plot TSPA/PAF locations on this map and make an assessment?

Thanks.

Also when aid for rebuilding starts from the US watch for which areas are getting rebuilt.
rough estimate, XI corps area, peshawar. PAF bases risalpur, kamra, rafiqui and possibly chaklala.

What about Sargodha
What is the battle readiness of these frontline airbases. Any degradation and what is the damage assessment

What do google maps updates show?
Gagan where are you when we need you?

[g.sarkar]

Seriously there is no harm in sending few plastic sheets & water filteration equipment all stamped Made in India on it.

They specifically request, nay demand that no donated item carries the made in India tag.

I actually believe they want India to give $3-4 billions at least. And why not? If India can give billions to insignificant countries in the neighborhood, why not to the true heirs of the Mughals? Who is more deserving, SL, Afghanistan, BD? or TSP?
De de Baba Allah ke naam pe de de.
Aur de diya, to koi ehsan nahi kiya. We deserve every penny you give. So, give and then shut up Kafirs.
Gautam

[hnair]

HNair my point is GoI has failed in more elementary areas

No, it did not fail in elementary areas, or I would be agreeing to paki propaganda in Kashmir valley.

[SSridhar]

India giving aid for the "perceived PR" is like "lipstick on Pig's lips". It is of no use to try to straighten dog's tail. I think things like (1) Talking to Pak (2) PR and psy-ops excercises (3) aman-ki-asha are all most useless excercizes.

What big difference will it really make?

The best thing is to be blunt and say we don't consider Pakistan as friendly nation and we don'e even consider it as a nation from xx/xx/2010. All diplomatic relations are cancelled.

We should have done that on Dec. 14, 2001 (if not earlier), not from a future xx/xx/2010. The GoI, of all shades, has not thought it prudent do be harsh with Pakistan over the last 63 years. The impression they give is that somehow Pakistan can be turned around and that India has the capacity to absorb more blows in the meanwhile. Every passing year, we see more atrocious and more meticulously planned terrorist attack on India and after each such attack, we reset and raise the bar for our pain threshold. We take some cosmetic steps that do not fool anyone, especially the PA and the jihadi terrorists. Even those steps are diluted over a period of time and such dilution is dubbed as chanakyan move. Then, we launch into furious debates on how everything is working in India's favour, how we should ignore these pinpricks while concentrating on the larger vision of 10% GDP growth alone etc. We need to look back into history. All these arguments of how a widening disparity between India and Pakistan, both economically and militarily etc. would settle the Pakistan problem, have been raging for over 50 years now and the problem for us has only become immensely larger.

My approach is based on recognizing three things first:

1. Pakistan is our implacable enemy and there is absolutely no way of turning it around using the approach, or minor variants thereof, that we have maintained for decades now
2. It is in India's geo-strategic and geo-political interests to comprehensively overcome the Pakistani problem as that country is acting not only at its own behest but also at the behest of other nations who are determined to shackle us
3. India is suffering disproportionately because of Pakistan in multiple ways economically, diplomatically, militarily and this must be put a stop to in a time-bound manner and that timeframe is less than a decade

Today, as it had always been the case, it appears that the GoI has no plan on how to tackle Pakistan strategically. We are just drifting along and reacting to developments as and when they happen. More and more, we are accommodating the wishes of the USA to the extent of even sacrificing our own. We hope that the US will somehow be able to make Pakistan see reality and even protect our interests. Now and then, the US gives the impression that it is colluding with India in tackling Pakistan. Implicit in this outsourcing to the USA is a realization that India alone may not be able to confront Pakistan. The US help during Kargil time, whether we sought it or we simply accepted the offer of mediation is immaterial, is a proof of this. The jingoes may not like this but Pakistan has effectively checkmated us using their nuclear weapon as they have always said they would. So much so, we are now debating whether even a dirty bomb crosses our threshold or not.

If this is the reality, then India must use every means at its disposal to overcome Pakistan, one of which is psy-ops. It will not be an instant 'game changer'. But, like the squirrels which helped the construction of the Sethu, we are today at a stage where everything counts, provided we realize the enduring threat that Pakistan poses to us. If we realize that threat, then every action of ours will be tinged with how to hurt Pakistan. Some may say that we would then become another Pakistan, obsessed with that nation just as it is obsessed with us. The difference would be that India would be obsessed with Pakistan only diplomatically, not at the level of the society and certainly not through fabricated history and conveniently reconstructed events etc.

Now, 'Aman-ki-Asha' is a different case. It appears, to me at least, that it is not a GoI initiative but an American one, to which GoI might have simply acceded to because it doesn't want to be accused of being a game-spoiler.

[negi]

HNair my point is GoI has failed in more elementary areas

No, it did not fail in elementary areas, or I would be agreeing to paki propaganda in Kashmir valley.

Boss I don't get your point , if MMS wants to make borders irrelevant, continue chai pakoda and even have TSP on MFN list then why worry about minuscule flood relief aid, after 26/11 did you hear about any trade embargoes against TSP as far as GoI is concerned ? As for Kashmir lets not even go there we have ourselves to blame for that mess.

[Rudradev]

7) One week later, a JDAM goes off in an Indian city... Mumbai, perhaps, or Bengalooru. With devastating consequences for the Indian economy. The Pakistanis express heartfelt sympathy to India while denying that the blast indicated a bomb of Pakistani design. They also caution India against taking "ill-advised steps" and put their nuclear delivery systems on high alert.

8 ) The same or next day, Ilyas Kashmiri issues a statement from somewhere he declares is "Taliban-protected territory." He says 313 Brigade has possession of not one more, but in fact fifty more nuclear weapons. They will be detonated in Indian cities one by one until India gives up Kashmir.

<snip>

Does this explain how the combination of US withdrawal from AfPak, and elevation of Taliban to governance in Afghanistan, makes the situation MORE dangerous for India than it is today? Essentially it affords Pakistan an additional degree of plausible deniability. That's what we saw during the IC814 hijacking.

Rudradevgaru - there are several untenable assumptions in your story

1) That Pakistani nukes are now somehow "safe" and cannot be spirited away if the need arises and the Pakistanis want them elsewhere

Excuse me Shiv-ji, that is not an assumption I have made at all. Please point out where in my scenario: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 04#p920604 I have made any claim, or even implication, that the nukes are now somehow "safe."

"Safe" is an absolute term, and makes absolutely no sense in this context. From the day Pakistan received nuclear capability, we have not been completely "safe" from Pakistan's nukes. It is possible for Pakistan to spirit nukes away and transport them elsewhere, even now. And it will continue to be possible even after America leaves AfPak and the Taliban comes to power in Afghanistan.

The difference between those two situations is not that the first is absolutely "safe" and the second is absolutely "dangerous".

The difference is that in the first situation, the chances of Pakistan successfully spiriting away nukes, or bluffing about nukes being stolen, are significantly lower than in the second situation. That's because there is a larger American presence in terms of intel and military assets in the region at present, than there will be if the US withdraws from AfPak.

If this is not the case, and I am wrong about this, please explain why.

A burglar can successfully break into a house more easily on a quiet street at night than on a crowded street during the day. Now, at no time can the house said to be completely and absolutely "safe" from burglars, because some burglaries do happen in broad daylight. However,they are more likely to happen at night. Simple no?

2) That Pakistan will announce the theft of nukes to the world when they can actually arm the Taliban with nukes tomorrow without telling anyone if they wished.

Yes, TSPA can arm the Taliban with nukes tomorrow. But what will it gain them, as long as the TSPA still has to fight the Taliban, or pretend to fight the Taliban, and cannot get the Taliban into power in Kabul... all because of American pressure? What guarantee does the TSPA have that it can give nukes to the Taliban and not find itself on the receiving end of Taliban nuclear blackmail?

In fact, my scenario does not say that the TSPA will arm the Taliban with nukes, so again, you are wrong in calling that an "assumption" I have made. Read it again please: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 04#p920604

There is no mention in there at all, of TSPA arming the Taliban with nukes, or even *actual* theft of TSPA weapons.

Theft of five nukes is something the TSPA/ISI announces to the world, once a Taliban government is ensconsed in Kabul and the Americans have left the region. If you believe that this necessarily means five nukes were actually stolen by the Taliban, then you are the one with naive beliefs.

Is it not possible that no nukes were ever stolen and all the five nukes in question, even the one parked in a slum in an Indian city, remained in the hands of ISI operatives all along?

The point is that announcing "five nukes were stolen", and blaming the Taliban for it, gives Pakistan a degree of plausible deniability when the JDAM does go off in an Indian city. It never actually has to happen as they say it happened.

3) That you need to conjure up a convoluted tale such as the one you have written to create real fear of being nuked in India. Any sane Indian will know that Bengalooru or Mumbai can be nuked tomorrow by the Pakistani army itself even in the absence of the tale you have written.

In making this assumption about me you are creating valid basis for an assumption to be made about you: that you would rather concentrate on the "motives" I may have had for making this post... "create fear of being nuked"... than actually address the content of my post itself. Because it is easier to cast aspersions about my personal reasons for writing the scenario, than to actually identify what is wrong with my scenario as I have posted it.

We can play that game any time you like, but out of respect for the other posters here who are giving my scenario serious thought, I will refrain from doing so for the present. I am happy to accept any criticism of the scenario itself, if you have any legitimate criticism to offer.

I am not surprised that you are compelled to tell me how sane Indians in Mumbai and Bengalooru feel, and that they know their cities can be nuked by the TSPA tomorrow. But actually, I too know that. I also know what will be involved, and what consequences the TSPA is likely to suffer as a result of that.

But here, I have presented a scenario whereby the TSPA could carry out such a nuclear attack and possibly avoid those consequences. Two things are key to that scenario:

1) Taliban government coming back to power in Kabul
2) Withdrawal of most American military and intelligence assets from AfPak.

Without those two things, I will happily admit that my scenario is unworkable. But that is the entire point of the discussion, and of the original question you raised, no?

Living in the hope that a Taliban takeover is needed for that is a mistake that no rational Indian should make.

It is not a "hope" by any stretch of the imagination, but a recognition that Taliban takeover in Kabul and American withdrawal from AfPak make the situation more likely. Just as nightfall and the relative absence of people makes a burglar's success more likely.

4) That a Taliban nuke on India give Pakistan "plausible deniability" - and that India will wonder if the Taliban nuke came from Boputhatswana and not Pakistan

Yet another "assumption" that my scenario does not make.

Indians have known that the Khalistan terrorists who killed Indira Gandhi in '84 came from Pakistan; that the Mumbai bombs of '93 came from Pakistan; and that all the terrorist activity against India since that time can be traced back to Pakistan. Old news. If a nuclear bomb goes off in an Indian city even now, we will know where it came from. The question is, what will we do about it?

In my scenario, there is actually little doubt that the nuke came from Pakistan. Pakistan itself will leak the story of "nukes being stolen" so there is little question as to where it originated from. That leak, plus the presence of Taliban government in Afghanistan, plus Illyas Kashmiri declaring that he conducted the operation with Taliban assistance, is what gives Pakistan plausible deniability for a JDAM attack even if no "theft of a nuclear weapon" ever occurred.

I would hope that even in the face of this, India would still retaliate fully against Pakistan itself. But the fact remains that in all the decades of Pakistani terrorism against India we have not retaliated fully, or even retaliated at all most of the time. Each time the atrocities get more horrific, and are escalated to a larger scale of destruction. And each time it's still not enough to know that they came from Pakistan.

The risk of Pakistani nukes hitting the city I live in is not for some future date like your story - but a real one right now. In your mind you might want to believe (or state for the purpose of argument) that it is not that risky now but will become more risky at some future date if the story you have written should come to pass. Having been in the line of fire of Paki nukes for 20 years I think your story is a dangerous one that tries to reassure people that all is well now but could get worse. Nothing is more dangerous to India than Indians reassuring themselves that all is well with nukes now and that someone else is needed at some future date for those nukes to become really dangerous.

Why must you put words in my mouth... is it because the words that I actually spoke are too difficult to answer?

Where have I said that it is "not that risky now"? I have only said it will become *more* risky given certain very specific circumstances. Those circumstances include the absence of US forces from the region, who could otherwise mount operations to secure all Pakistani nuclear assets within hours of a Pakistani announcement about stolen nukes. Can you say why it will not become more risky under those circumstances? If you can convincingly argue that point, I will stand corrected.

If people get "reassured" by my story, then they are probably capable of being "reassured" by anything, including Aman ki Asha and all the other wonderful stuff percolating through the Indian consciousness nowadays. So, despite your allegations, I do not consider myself guilty of "lulling" the Indian public into the idea that "all is well now." If I am guilty of that, then what is the GOI, which insists on talking to Pakistan despite zero progress on terrorism?

Once you create a story that reassures you that all is well now, it is a simple step forward to support all the false assumptions you need to make to keep those nukes safe:

a) America is watching those nukes
b) America will get those nukes if they are moved
c) Pakistan is rational
d) The nukes are safe with Pakistanis

None of these is an assumption I have made. Please point out where in my scenario I have made them.

Firstly...America is watching those nukes to the best of its abilities. If it learns that nukes have gone missing, it will respond to try and secure the missing nukes, again to the best of its abilities. This is not because America wants to protect us SDREs from nukes... only because America wants to protect itself.

This does not mean that even now, Pakistan definitely can't get away with giving nukes to other parties. But that is not what my scenario is about. It is about plausible deniability that Pakistan does not have as much of now, as they will if Taliban returns to power in Kabul.

Secondly... America may not get those nukes if they are moved, even now. But the 150,000 odd soldiers in Afghanistan, special forces all over Pakistan, a couple of carrier battle groups in the Arabian Sea and CIA crawling around everywhere makes a difference. Under present circumstances the chances are higher of America getting those nukes, than if all these things (or some of these things) were not there in the theatre. Do you disagree?

Thirdly, Pakistan is of course not rational... but it has enough of an instinct for self-preservation that it will try to achieve through plausible deniability something that it may not risk if it has no plausible deniability. On the contrary by pushing the line that "Pakistan is irrational" as an absolute statement, it is you who are creating fear among Indians of a mad-bomber state that is capable of anything.

Fourthly, I have already made my position clear on your use of the word "safe" in this context. It is like my saying "Shiv is bad", "Shiv is good", "Shiv is a herrow" or whatever. It means nothing at all.

What we are seeing in Pakistan is the serous risk of a Taliban takeover of Pakistan. The nuclear bogey and the story you have written are aimed at creating the impression that the nukes will be more unsafe for India if the Taliban were to take over. Your story is aimed at creating an argument for opposing the Taliban takeover of Pakistan in answer to a question I asked.

In other words your story is a good "sales pitch" for opposing a Taliban takeover of Pakistan, based on the fear that the Taliban will use the nukes on India.

Fluff. Instead of offering substantial arguments, you are creating a strawman out of my evil intentions to "sell" the idea that Taliban takeover of Pakistan would be a bad thing.

In fact, anybody can see that I have not done this.

I started my post by saying that there is a middle ground between the current situation and Taliban takeover of Pakistan... which is US withdrawal and Taliban takeover of Kabul. THAT is the situation I am worried about, not Taliban takeover of Pakistan per se.

But tell me saar what makes you think that the nukes are safe now and will not be used against India?

I don't believe they are safe now. But I believe they will be more easy for Pakistan to use against India in the situation I have described, than at the present moment.

Surely you don't believe that the Americans keep an eye on Pakistani nukes for Indian security purposes?

I'm disappointed. By the time I got this far in replying to your post, I thought I would find something of substance to counter.

No, Americans keep an eye on Pakistani nukes for American security purposes but the side effect of this is that Pakistan is less easily able to allow, or indeed fake, a "theft of nukes by Al-Qaeda/Taliban."

Substantially more time and more effort will be required by America to test the veracity of such a bluff when American forces are no longer in the region, and when Taliban is back in Kabul.

Do you really believe that the Pakistan cannot hand nukes to the Taliban if they wanted to do that?

Yawn. I have already answered this.

Do you believe that the Pakistanis, who have openly said that they might nuke India and need Afghanistan for "strategic depth" against India will need to hide behind a Taliban excuse to nuke India and expect people will believe that the Taliban got a nuke and nobody will know where it came from and therefore give Pakistan "plausible deniability"? One would have to have some very very naive people for this to be "plausible".

Ah, finally!

Yes, one would have to have some very very naive people... or some other different kind of people who behave as if they were "naive" for other reasons entirely. But what to do saar, all kinds of people exist in the world.

In the West there are the kind of people who, when faced with hard evidence of Pakistani nuclear proliferation to the West's worst enemies, said "the past is the past" and pretended that the whole thing was conducted by a "maverick" one-man network.

Now that the Wikileaks are out, those same people are falling all over themselves to explain why Pakistan is an indispensible ally even though it is supplying and training Talibs to use MANPADS (paid for by American aid) to kill American troops.

So I don't know saar. If a JDAM goes off in India and meanwhile Pakistan is making a "committed effort to recover missing nuclear weapons that the Taliban might use against the West"... and at the same time, America has little or no power to take the search in its own hands because they have already left AfPak... I don't know what these wonderful people will do in that situation.

And I don't know if their consistent behaviour is driven by naivete or something else altogether.

Now those are only the Western people. The Indian leadership on the other hand, silently suffers atrocity after atrocity at Pakistan's hands, on an endlessly escalating curve, year after year, decade after decade, and does nothing. Maybe it is because they are naive. Maybe it is because they are bissful and non-violent. Maybe it is because they are cowards.

One can only make predictions regarding a future scenario based on what one sees happening at present and what one has seen happening in the past. Always the rationalizations have been there... Pakis are irrational, they will nuke us if we slap them, they will interfere with our economic growth, etc. etc. And always, nothing has been done.

Will those rationalizations dry up and blow away if a JDAM goes off in an Indian city under the circumstances I have described? All of a sudden will our peaceful (or cowardly) leaders suddenly find the dharmic gumption to toss aside the plausible deniability and do the needful against the full opprobrium of international pressure? Will we retaliate with nukes against Pakistan for a JDAM attack as in the scenario I have described?

To hold that belief, I think, requires a greater degree of naivete than you accuse me of having.

On the other hand no force on earth, certainly not the Americans may be able to prevent an eventual Taliban takeover of Pakistan. If and when that occurs which of the following countries would be "more unsafe"?
1) India
2) USA
3) Israel

That conventional wisdom is very well known, and I don't think anyone disputes it.

You are saying that India is more unsafe.

Firstly, this is not something I have said. I have said India is more unsafe compared to the present day... not that we are more unsafe compared to the USA or Israel, if the Taliban come back to power in Kabul.

India in my 2013 scenario is more unsafe than India 2010... not necessarily more unsafe than USA 2013 or Israel 2013.

Secondly-- please explain this. What difference does it make? I don't care if the West or Israel get nuked. I care if India gets nuked. Will it be some great consolation to you if your city gets nuked, that under these circumstances NYC or Tel Aviv is likely to get nuked also?

Are you also trying to say that nukes in Taliban hands would not increase the risk to US forces and bases and to Israel.

No, I am not trying to say that. If you are trying to say that I said it, that's really a poor excuse for argument.

All I am trying to point out is that 150 Pakistani nukes are now pointed at India. Of those 150 nukes if 50 go to the Taliban - it is unlikely that all 50 will be reserved for India. At least a few (perhaps 10) will be aimed at the US and Israel.

Is India more unsafe when it has 150 Pakistani nukes pointed at it? (This is the current situation)
Is India more unsafe when it has 100 Paki + 40 Taliban nukes pointed at it? (This is after a Taliban takeover)

Is the US more unsafe when 150 Pakistani nukes are pointed at India? (This is the current situation)
Is the US more unsafe when there are 140 nukes pointed at India and 5 at the US and 5 at Israel? (This is after a Taliban takeover)

Fine, I accept these calculations. You have established that after a Taliban takeover the quantum of danger to US and Israel increases. I agree. But how much does the quantum of danger to India decrease? I don't think it decreases significantly; in fact it increases for a significant window of time between Taliban takeover of Kabul and Taliban takeover of Pakistan. THAT is what my scenario is about.

[Prem]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/au ... kistan-aid

David Cameron comments hindered Pakistan aid, says ambassadorAbdullah Hussain Haroon tells Radio 4 that prime minister's words have added to Pakistan's 'suffering'
Asked if disputes such as the one sparked by Cameron's comments had caused Pakistan to suffer, he said: "Yes, indeed Pakistan has suffered because of what Mr Cameron has said, because the British people will listen to their prime minister."He argued that a negative perception of Pakistan could be preventing the public from giving more aid. "The world has been slow," said Haroon. "It could be because of donor fatigue in terms of what's happening around the world, but also I don't think the international press, until now, has portrayed what is happening."If more aid was not forthcoming, he warned of a risk that the Taliban could flourish in areas where they had previously been defeated by the Pakistani army. "The Taliban has been [...] flushed out [and] are now running back to these areas and trying to reinvest themselves into them," he said."There is going to be a fight over who helps who at this grievous time, and if the international community does not take this as its responsibility […] I'm afraid there will be repercussions much beyond what is happening just now

( Then why Janab, Ummah is not giving Zakat either, what are they waiting for to help Ummah Leader and superpower in begging world ,Poakland)

[Rudradev]

.

Another point to consider: Will the US just wait and do nothing after Pakis announce five nukes are missing and presumably after a period of time (a few days?) announces that one has been recovered? Whatever the public utterances/actions may be of the US of A, surely they understand the interchangeability between the ISI and Kashmiri types? Unless the US of A is in the game, would they rest easy with four nukes still missing?
.

No one is saying the US will "rest easy" with even one nuke still missing.

But even if the Americans go into full overdrive on hearing about the "theft", their likelihood of successfully finding any missing warheads, or determining whether any warheads have actually gone missing are significantly decreased AFTER a US withdrawal from AfPak, compared to the present day.

We have to realize how very much at the mercy of the ISI the Americans are, even today.

They will only be more at the ISI's mercy after an American withdrawal from AfPak, which is what my scenario is premised on.

First of all, in my scenario, the Americans only have the iSI's word that four warheads are missing, and not fifty. Or one. Or zero. For all Washington knows the ISI may have cooked up the whole story to blackmail them for more aid. Not until the one JDAM goes off in an Indian city is it clear that even one nuclear weapon left Pakistan.

Secondly, even with their assets swarming all over AfPak for the past nine years... the Americans have proved completely helpless to locate and capture any of the senior Al Qaeda or Taliban leadership. The *only* time the CIA managed to catch a senior Talib without ISI help, was when they accidentally stumbled upon Mullah Baradar when looking in a meeting place for some lower-level fish. And even in that case, the ISI might have sold him out.

And this is all with American intelligence and military assets having been heavily invested in AfPak for nine years.

Compared to this, what are the chances of the Americans locating a handful of nuclear weapons which the ISI claims are missing... after the Americans have withdrawn significantly from the AfPak region... within the span of a few weeks?

[Rudradev]

That's another point. As far as I know even a crude radioactive device (a real JDAM and not a Pak nuke being posed as a JDAM) still leaves behind telltale radioactive signatures that can be traced back to the source.

But that is the whole point of the "nukes were stolen" announcement by the ISI no?

Even if a JDAM goes off in an Indian city and the radioactive signature is traced back to Pakistan... the Pakistani narrative will be that this was done by the Taliban, and very unfortunately, it happened before the well-meaning ISI could locate that one last missing nuke which ended up going off in India.

To corroborate this, Illyas Kashmiri will come out with his statement of responsibility. It will be Illyas Kashmiri's demand from under alleged "Taliban protection"... not the demand of the Pakistan government... that India should vacate Kashmir or face more JDAM attacks on its cities.

The West will likely put all kinds of pressure on India to accept the Pakistani version of events... because they themselves are relying on the ISI to secure any more nukes that have gone missing and could find their way to Western capitals.

This is why the Pakis receive an extra degree of plausible deniability if the Taliban comes back to power in Afghanistan... one they cannot avail of today.

[Rudradev]

Just so that everyone understands where I personally am coming from in this. I, personally, would like the US to withdraw from Af Pak and let the Talibs vent their full wrath on the Pakistan Army and Pakistani state.

I think this is a necessary step for the relatively speedy collapse of Pakistan as we know it, therefore a good thing on the whole.

The only thing I am trying to point out in my scenario is that we have not thought through the process by which this will happen. There are intermediate stages that could prove very dangerous to India, possibly in a manner similar to that I have described. How will we watch our backs during these intermediate stages?

It will not do to simply say "oh, JDAM is like nothing else, and all of a sudden we will be able to do what we never did before, and retaliate against Pakistan with open nuclear attack."

Hari Seldon has come up with one idea that qualifies as a potential solution i.e. That we must also have our own equivalents of JDAMs in Pakistani cities. Then we also have deniability!

See, if a JDAM goes off in an Indian city as in my scenario... Pakistan is counting on the deniability it is given (by the alleged Taliban theft of nukes, and by Illyas Kashmiri's claim of responsibility) to get away with it.

The West, alarmed by the theft of nukes and dependent on the ISI as usual, will pressure India to accept this deniability on Pakistan's behalf.

Under these circumstances, with Western pressure on India not to retaliate... it may be very difficult for the GOI to retaliate with a nuclear war on Pakistan. And the GOI has never been very good at taking politically difficult decisions, with respect to Pakistan.

But what if, following the JDAM in India, JDAMs also start going off in LaWhore, Slumbad, Pindi, Multan and Krrachi? No missiles, no IAF activity, but all of a sudden new-clear bums are going off in those cities.

Then India can just send a message of sincere condolence, and a gentle caution that the ISI should be more careful not to let anybody steal nuclear weapons from the Pakistani arsenal in future.

[amit]

Rudradev,

IMO, Plausible Deniability for conventional terrorist actions like the IC hijacking to Kandahar is one thing. However, a JDAM in an Indian city is quite another. I'm not suggesting that the Indian leadership will suddenly grow a pair if such a horrific thing happens.

However, at the end of the day whichever party is in power, it is a creature of election politics. I doubt that either the Congress or the BJP would commit political harakiri by not reacting to a JDAM. As I said before if whoever is in power can win another election after such an event then India does not deserve to belong to the comity of nations and there is no point of even discussing this because the country would get what it deserves.

But more than that we have to consider something else. From my reading of your scenario it seems to me that you are looking at a meticulously planned operation with the active connivance of the TSPA, ISI and the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. Now such planning is unlikely to be done by mad fundamentalists with soosai tendencies.

They would have to factor in the fact that the plausible denability angle may backfire and India may actually retaliate with a lot of petals bursting over Pakistani cities. And as I wrote in an earlier post, this is not going to be game with three players, Pakistan, Taliban and India. I don't think China and the US would just wring their hands and hope that their pressure works on the Indian leadership and there is no retaliation.

We need to look at two points which takes the scenario forward:

a) What happens after Indian petals land in Lawhore, Slumabad and other places? Pakistan would then certainly be launching its missiles and then India may just may land a few in places north of the Himalayas and this would be a contagion that the entire world wouldn't want to happen because our friendly northern neghibour may be tempted to lob some across the Pacific in that case. India would be mortally wounded that's for certain but so would a lot of other countries not to mention the fact that once N-bombs are again used after World War II then it would become much more easier to use by other nations. I state this scenario because this would certainly be gamed in (if not already done) in Washington and Beijing. So as I said it's unlikely that US would just restrict itself to hand wringing.

b) Let's assume India succumbs to pressure and doesn't retaliate and Illyas Kashmiri demands Kashmir on a platter. Now the question is who will get Kashmir? Pakistan or Afghanistan? Or will it be an Independent state? Do you see a smooth transition happening with the Indian army and all Hindus and Sikhs marching out orderly from the state? Again do you think an Indian political party can quietly give up Kashmir for fear of the 25 alleged JDAMs in different cities? Do you see the opposition parties accepting that? Also, even in the event that India does give up Kashmir what happens to these 25 alleged JDAMs? Does valiant "freedom fighter" Illyas Kashmiri tell the Indian government their location and then everyone lives happily ever after? Or does he just say they were all a joke and there were no more JDAMs? And everyone grins, do some backslapping and walk away?

Point (b) IMO is important because these are the things that logically would go through the minds of the Indian government before it decides to retaliate or not. I suspect most people will see this as a Catch 22 situation because, even after giving up Kashmir (itself something that can be done only after convening Parliament and passing a unanimous resolution) the 25 bombs could still go off - remember it's been made abundantly clear by the fundoos that Kashmir is just the first step and the final destination is the Red Fort.

I think the total hopelessness of the situation will force the Indian government of the day to retaliate because there is no way it can ride out the consequences.

Once again remember horrific as Mumbai was it was pretty clear that the Indian government could ride it out, just as it has wriggled out of countless other humiliations/disasters such as Kandahar, Parliament, Akshardham etc. (Please note that does not justify the pathetic response after Mumbai but I state this because it's a fact of life, however unpalatable it may be).

A JDAM would be the endgame. And the Pakis would certainly take this into consideration if they have the wherewithal to launch what would be a "brilliant" strategic maneuver that you outlined. I'm not too sure the fat jarnails of Slumabad have soosai tendencies. They like others to do the job. This scenario would have a good chance that they would be in the frontline.

PS: The Indian nuclear doctrine clearly states that there will be overwhelming response to a nuclear attack. I think its farfetched to think that the entire strategic community which crafted the doctrine (not just the political leadership, please note) would wring their hands and do nothing because there's a small matter of plausible denability which nobody in the world buys.

[ShivaS]

Every day I pray to Allah that TSP develop ICBM and is completely taken over by Islamist terrorists. I dont know when Allah will bestow this favor on the world.

[Vikas]

How is that Paki Govt and military with all its might and charity money are not able to help the flood affectes but Terrorist organizations like JuD and LeT etc. are able to setup their bases in such areas in no time and help people as claimed by Paki Govt and bloggers.
After all money for them is not appearing out of nowhere and corruption in these organizations would be as high as rest of the Paki nation. So how come Pak govt is not able to match them $ for $ or is it that they are another arm of Paki govt to unsettle and scare rest of the world,Look! Bad guys are helping people while we can't because you are not giving us any dollar and submarines and Drones.

Another myth in making is " Paki deluge is a humanitarian crisis of a scale larger than the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2004 Tsunami put together"
Someone pray tell me how ? My SDRE mind assumes that this means more loss of human life and financial impact. But when I look at the pictures, except for few hundred dead and some mud houses and gravel roads washed away, what else has Paki nation lost to make it a flood of Koranic proportion.
In fact if everything goes alright, Bakis may end up making money out of this flood than GoI made selling 3G licence spectrum. After all Allah works in mysterious ways.

[Pratyush]

Can some one tell me how many Pakraches have died in the floods. Cause the death toll during the Tsunami in Tamil Nadu it self was above 10000 people. I am not counting the Indonaseans and the Lankans.

So how come it is bigger then the Tsunami

If some one is to tell me one paki = 10 kafirs even then the Indonaseans were not kaffirs. So what gives.

Please e-nlighten me am konphused SDRE onlee .

[Pratyush]

Amit, the nuke doctrine will be subverted by WKK / SLIME appeal that the Indians who have died will not return by Nukeing the TSP. So it makes no sense to end additional lives. Also because Indian is a larger country it must be generous.

Think about how to counter it, in the light of indian responce to terror for the last approx 25 years.

[Manish_Sharma]

An email chain is doing the rounds in my office DL...started by a Paki...about how this tragedy is worse than the tsunami+PoK quake + Haiti quake combined. Some responses about showing support etc by well meaning or WKKite Indians...

Where is that paki joker who famously said "I'll rather be called a terrorist than an Indian" when we really need him.

Maybe now he is saying "I'll rather be inside a Paki coffin having floodwater PakiCola than in an Indian tent sipping Bisleri."

Last time in 2005 they were asking for land, and they got big and hot land from deep inside earth. They didn't know where to hide!
This time they were asking for water, and really Gods have smiled on them. Now they don't know where to run!

Maybe next time, they should ask for Kitchen Granite so a well meaning Meteor can finish all their demands in one go with ROP becoming RIP.

Maybe the indian guru's prediction about the trio is going to happen sooner than later.

[Airavat]

Floods cause outbreak of water-borne diseases

local government official Ahmad Zaib told The Express Tribune during a visit to a medical camp set up by the Sarhad Rural Support Programme (SRSP). “The outbreak of water-borne diseases has further complicated the situation.”

“A large number of women are suffering from gastroenteritis and skin diseases, while children are contracting chicken pox and diarrhoea,” Dr Shama told The Express Tribune at the camp.

Survivors say they are starving as no government aid has reached them so far. “Floods destroyed everything in our village. And survivors are now suffering from skin diseases,” Gul Zarina, 49, who is suffering from gastroenteritis, told The Express Tribune.

Speaking about her ordeal, Zarina said that they have been eating grass to stay alive as they have lost everything. “We cannot migrate to Mingora because Kabal is cut off from the rest of the country,” she added.

Bhutto's prophetic words....

[derkonig]

Maybe the indian guru's prediction about the trio is going to happen sooner than later.

What was it?

[SSridhar]

Bhutto's prophetic words....

Ayub Khan's prophetic words about ZAB were, "this madman will lead the country astray and get it into trouble".

[Pratyush]

SS,

Sorry guru, but in the above post you are simply wrong. The word were we will eat grass....... .

Now, they are eating grass.

[arun]

The sales volume of trucks in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is truly miniscule. Doubtless the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is so wealthy that their goods transportation needs are met using air freight:

Car sales fall 32% in July

Meanwhile to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s east:

Best ever: Car sales zoom 38%

[svinayak]

Let people of Pakistan decide about our image as we deliver supplies and carry people from flood-affected areas," said US pilot George Kelly, adding that "very poor" weather was one of the main challenges. Kelly said he was overwhelmed by the beauty of the Swat valley, calling the former trouble spot "probably the prettiest place I have ever come to". The army has provided separate lodging to over 90 US military officials, who are closely in touch with air traffic for minute-to-minute weather updates.

(The) Pakistan army offers a world class facility at the base and we received excellent support. We are really impressed to see the hospitality of our hosts," said a US army Major Marc Geeting. Sergeant Curtis Hissong was equally upbeat. "It gives us satisfaction to deliver food supplies to Pakistanis stranded in different areas. "The biggest challenge for us is weather, and we are overcoming it as best as we can," Hissong said.

In flood-hit Kalam, Bahrullah Khan, 38, a teacher who has been stranded there since floods struck while he was on holiday, said the American help was a blessing. "Pakistani helicopters evacuate army people or people of their own choice. The US helicopters in this situation are really a blessing for us. "We can now expect we will also have our turn and will get an opportunity to leave soon," he said. - AFP

http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.ph ... Y2NzYzNw==

[James B]

SS,

Sorry guru, but in the above post you are simply wrong. The word were we will eat grass....... .

Now, they are eating grass.

Pratyush miya, please re-read what SSridhar wrote. He is not contradicting you, he just wrote about Ayub Khan's prophetic words about Bhutto.

[SSridhar]

SS,
Sorry guru, but in the above post you are simply wrong. The word were we will eat grass....... .
Now, they are eating grass.

I am simply saying that ZAB lived up to Ayub's prophetic words by making Pakistanis 'eat grass'. I have always held that ZAB was singularly responsible for all the mess of today by launching Islamism, sectarianism and a project for nuclear weapons. All these three have resulted in what we see in Pakistan today. Ayub's prophecy therefore just reinforces the argument, not contradicts it.

[Purush]

Sorry if it's a repost.
Truly amazing pics of the paki floods
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/0 ... istan.html
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/0 ... loods.html

[Pratyush]

Premature Mijjjele phyre by me.......


You are correct that ZAB is the man responsible for the mess TSP is in today.

[svinayak]

PBSNewsHour | August 11, 2010
Read the Transcript: http://to.pbs.org/b77GZT

The United Nations launched an effort to raise $460 million in international aid for the Pakistan flood victims. After three weeks of flooding, at least 1200 are dead and 14 million people have been affected by the disaster. UN emergency relief coordinator John Holmes, offers the latest details.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd2pToBOfWs

Check the map - extensive area of damage

[SSridhar]

From an interview by Farzana Sheikh in The Hindu

Notwithstanding his choice of India as the stage from which he chose to launch his broadside accusing Pakistan of “exporting terror”, Mr. Cameron's remarks, I believe, lacked diplomatic restraint. But I also believe they were unfair. This is not to say that Pakistan is blameless in the conduct of its Afghan policy —it is not.

Even a person of Farzana Sheikh's calibre feels that terrorism against India by Pakistan can be whitewashed. Cameron's statement referred to Pakistan's export of terrorism both to 'India and Afghanistan'. By claiming that Pakistan is not blameless with respect to Afghanistan, even Farzana Sheikh is implicitly admitting that terrorism against India is justified. Chatham House must seriously question her opinion.

[Aditya_V]

PBSNewsHour | August 11, 2010
Read the Transcript: http://to.pbs.org/b77GZT

The United Nations launched an effort to raise $460 million in international aid for the Pakistan flood victims. After three weeks of flooding, at least 1200 are dead and 14 million people have been affected by the disaster. UN emergency relief coordinator John Holmes, offers the latest details.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd2pToBOfWs

Check the map - extensive area of damage

So funding for the U-214 has been secured

[svinayak]

What is U-214

[Manishw]

^^^ guess submarine from germany.

[svinayak]

Even a person of Farzana Sheikh's calibre feels that terrorism against India by Pakistan can be whitewashed.

Pakistan is a national security state and not a humanitarian state or a welfare state

[svinayak]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QsJ_ZdyY0o
Is the international aid promised to Pakistan enough to provide relief to the millions of people affected from the devastating floods. That is the question in this episode of the REPORTER. Guests: Sumsam Bokhari, Farrukh Saleem, Khawar Ghumman

Fighting why international aid and intl org are not coming into Pakistan
Why Pakistan is a fake democracy
88% of the people in Pak are affected

[RajeshA]

From an interview by Farzana Sheikh in The Hindu

This is not to say that Pakistan is blameless in the conduct of its Afghan policy —it is not.[/b]

Even a person of Farzana Sheikh's calibre feels that terrorism against India by Pakistan can be whitewashed. Cameron's statement referred to Pakistan's export of terrorism both to 'India and Afghanistan'. By claiming that Pakistan is not blameless with respect to Afghanistan, even Farzana Sheikh is implicitly admitting that terrorism against India is justified.

SSridhar garu,

Farzana Shaikh is interpreting David Cameron's remarks to have been made in the context of Pakistan's conduct w.r.t. Afghanistan War Theater, even if they were made in India. She is still assuming that US-UK combine's grievance is related to the Afghan War Theater and has nothing to do with anti-India Terrorism emanating from Pakistan. That is, David Cameron's remarks in India were a reprimand to Pakistan to behave in Afghanistan, and not to stop anti-Indian terrorism.

"We cannot tolerate in any sense the idea that this country is allowed to look both ways and is able, in any way, to promote the export of terror, whether to India or whether to Afghanistan or anywhere else in the world.

"That is why this relationship is important. It should be a relationship based on a very clear message: that it is not right to have any relationship with groups that are promoting terror. Democratic states that want to be part of the developed world cannot do that. The message to Pakistan from the US and the UK is very clear on that point."

Cameron does refer to Pakistan's duplicitous behavior with respect to India as well, but to be fair to Farzana Shaikh, I think she is correctly interpreting it as being directed at the Afghanistan War Theater. If everything had been hunky-dory in Afghanistan, David Cameron would probably not have made this comment.

[svinayak]

Contribution to flood relief

[Dilbu]

^^
The fliend does not look that tarrel and deepel hainji?

[svinayak]

Here is a timeline of events since devastating floods hit Pakistan on July 29, killing an estimated 1,600 people in two weeks, according to the United Nations.

- July 29: Flash floods and landslides caused by monsoon rains hit northwestern Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir as the country mourns its worst aviation disaster, which killed 152 people in Islamabad.

- July 31: Local authorities say the floods have killed at least 800. The deluge kills another 65 people in mountains across the border in Afghanistan.

- August 2: The UN says that nearly 980,000 people have been left homeless or have been displaced.

- The Red Cross appeals for aid.

- August 4: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani calls on his administration to speed up the delivery of aid. There is a growing backlash against the civilian government and President Asif Ali Zardari over failures to provide food, water and sanitation to the victims.

- August 5: The UN estimates that the flooding has killed 1,600 people in northwestern Pakistan alone.

- Numerous cases of diarrhoea.

- The UN says it has received 18 million dollars of international aid.

- August 6: Pakistan declares a red alert as the flooding worsens, reaching the south and leading to the evacuation of half a million people.

- The floods have affected 12 million people in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, the National Disaster Management Agency says.

- August 7: In the south, notably in the densely populated province of Sindh, a million people are evacuated, bringing to 15 million the number affected across the country according to the local authorities.

- August 8: Landslides in Gilgit-Baltistan province in the far north.

- Gilani visits flood-hit areas of Sindh province, calling again for international aid.

- August 9: Around 13.8 million people have been affected by the floods in Pakistan, making the scale of the disaster worse than the 2004 tsunami, 2005 earthquake in Kashmir and the 2010 Haiti earthquake, a UN official says.

- August 10: Six million people need humanitarian aid in order to survive, according to the UN.

- Zardari returns to Pakistan, after a European tour for which he was criticised.

- August 11: The UN appeals for 460 million dollars in emergency aid for flood victims.

- A senior UN envoy warns that militants could exploit Pakistan's worst humanitarian disaster.

- The United States triples the number of helicopters helping Pakistan's flood relief effort.

[Dilbu]

Anybody noticed the jamat-ud-dawa badge wearing abduls distributing aid openly? I thought they were banned.

[SSridhar]

^^
The fliend does not look that tarrel and deepel hainji?

KSA doesn't even figure. One never expects the poor houbara to play such a damning role, after all. Also, the International Islamic Relief Org. is nowhere in the picture ? The ummah is not coming to the wannabe Ummah-leader's distress ?