Su-30: News and Discussion

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Aug 2010 13:53

Indian Su-30MKI Upgrade To Cost Rs 10,920-Crore

Defence Minister AK Antony mentioned India's proposed Su-30MKI upgrade in Parliament today. He said, "There is proposal to upgrade the SU-30 MKI aircraft of the Indian Air Force by M/s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) with the support of the Russian Original Equipment Manufacturer. The current estimated cost is Rs 10,920 crores and the aircraft are likely to be upgraded in a phased manner from year 2012 onwards."

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Aug 2010 13:54

JSF was quoted at around $130 million according to latest media reports.The extra costs for a fully upgraded Flanker seem not too unreasonable,especially if as quoted,many of the specs will include tech and sensors,etc. that are to be used on the 5th-gen fighter.If a large fighter like a hugely upgraded Flanker comes in at around $100 million,then an MMRCA of Rafale/Typhoon class should be available at around $75-85 million.As was mentioned above,there may be some hidden costs,like costs of developing some of the 5th-gen tech and systems which will be used on the upgraded Su-30s,which might indicate why the unit cost appears to be high when compared with earlier costs per unit.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2010 14:14

the increment in metal/composite over a large plane like su30 and a medium one like rafale probably is not much difference in cost.
there will be some extra labour hours to get it ready.

beyond that I doubt there is any sound logic to a gripenNG costing less than a EF/F15 . it all depends on the host country's profit margin,
cost of biggest parts like radar, weapons and engines and prices charged by smaller suppliers.

nrshah · Post by **nrshah** » 18 Aug 2010 14:58

http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories694.htm

Aircraft were cheap in the Soviet days but now, an Su 30 MKI is around $ 50 million (Rs 230 crores) each inclusive of some support packages and Transfer of Technology (ToT). The total cost for 272 SU 30 MKIs works out to $ 13.6 billion.

What about this when we are firing at Russians for all cost escalation with whatever we have?

nrshah · Post by **nrshah** » 18 Aug 2010 15:08

arnab wrote:It is absurd to make 'constant dollar' arguments to justify price hikes for something assumed to be technologically the same. For instance we paid $2 million a piece for the Mig 21 FLs in mid 1975 - That works out to $30 million in today's prices - so would you suggest we buy that product today?

CPI relates to 'consumer prices' and has no relevance to technology driven products. A laptop in 2010 is cheaper and is more powerful than one available in 1997 (So in constant price terms the technology index is negative). So a higher price for technology intensive items are only justified if a better technology is being offered.

You are not getting things in correct perspective... In your case, what justification you give when you buy sugar at 40 rs/kg when the same was available 20 rs/kg some couple of years back?

You cannot compare two quotes of rate at two different point of time... Time itself has its own value... for comparison, either of the rate needs to be converted into the others time frame... for this either you discount the current rate to past time or you compound past rate to current.. This is well established norm thru out the world... While it might have some limitation, there is not alternative as of now.......

For Mig 21, it cannot be considered under the time value of money method...For it does not take into account the effect of obsolence....the price we are talking or MKI is the same version which was in 1997 and today...Although, i m not supportive of cost escalation, there is still a lot of confusion what is the actual price... Refer my earlier post where India strategic quotes a rate of 50 Mn USD.... Also, please understand the mode of payments for Arihant consultancy and such other projects...

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 18 Aug 2010 17:33

nrshah, These New Prices have been Tabled in the Parliament of India so they've got to be True.

Aircraft Deals with ‘Friend’ Russia Costing Dear
Daily News & Analysis

Latest Figures Tabled in Parliament, however, show that another deal for 40 + 2 Sukhois, to be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautical Limited (HAL) under Licence from the Russian Federation’s Irkutsk, has been struck for $4.3 Billion , that is $102 Million a Piece.

India To Buy More Su-30sMKIs
Aviation Week

India To Buy More Su-30sMKIs
Aug 10, 2010

By Robert Wall [ wall@aviationweek.com ]
LONDON
The Indian defense ministry says it will buy 42 more Su-30MKI fighters, with deliveries to unfold between 2014-2018.

The Total Deal is Valued at around $4.3 Billion.

N Jhawar · Post by **N Jhawar** » 18 Aug 2010 17:45

Maybe the $4.3 Billion price tag includes some *extra goodies*???

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 18 Aug 2010 18:26

N Jhawar wrote:Maybe the $4.3 Billion price tag includes some *extra goodies*???

nothing to the best of anyones knowledge, not the engines, avionics or weapon systems. Besides, we'll be paying another 10,000 crore for the MKI upgrade soon. So this 4.3 billion is just for 42 jets ( not souped up versions)

parshuram · Post by **parshuram** » 18 Aug 2010 18:35

They are already more then what we intend to pay for MMRCA ...!!! so we are making russians happy and telling them You can shut down MIG and $11 Billion is not what the whole order of MMRCA will go for

Dmurphy · Post by **Dmurphy** » 18 Aug 2010 20:16

Nihat wrote:
N Jhawar wrote:Maybe the $4.3 Billion price tag includes some *extra goodies*???
nothing to the best of anyones knowledge, not the engines, avionics or weapon systems. Besides, we'll be paying another 10,000 crore for the MKI upgrade soon. So this 4.3 billion is just for 42 jets ( not souped up versions)

Well, Jhawar you're right. Just see what constitutes the upgrade deal:

Indian media reported in May that the modernization project, codenamed Super 30, would involve the installation of new radars, onboard computers, avionics and BrahMos supersonic missiles on 40 Su-30MKI fighters.

This upgrade starts 2012 onwards. The 42 new MKIs being purchased will be manufactured 2015 onwards, by which then the upgrade will have been completed. And logic tells me 42 a/cs will be manufactured of the same standard.

So in the end, we'll have 190 Sukhois of the initial standards. So the rest 82 nos. MKIs being manufactured after 2012-13 will be of these new standards.

krish.pf · Post by **krish.pf** » 18 Aug 2010 21:04

4.3 billion for 42 jets is a shocker. But how can Russians be over pricing this time when it is HAL which is manufacturing them? It doesn't make sense. As always google has the answers-

How much does a Su-30MKI cost?

The Russian origin Sukhoi-30MKI is Indian Air force's Primary multirole fighter. Many deals were signed with varying costs and other factors. Here is a comprehensive research on how much it costs.

Deal 1(30th Nov 1996): 40 Su-30 jets(8 Su-30K(or MK1), 8 Su-30MK2, 12 Su-30MK3 & 12 Su-30MKI) costs Rs 5,122 crore($1,462 million).
Deal 2(Sep 1998): 10 Su-30K jets costs Rs 1,187 crore($277.01 million). Unit cost $27.7 million.

An additional $270 million was spent for replacing the Su-30K acquired in Deals 1 & 2 with new MKIs, as part of a new deal. Plus a further additional expenditure of Rs 1,188 crore for indigenous development and import of avionics system for the Su-30MKI.
Reference 1

Deal 3(Oct-Dec 2000): 140 Su-30MKI jets to be manufactured by HAL at a total cost of $4,809 million(Rs 22,122.78 crore). $4,809 million includes: Cost for license, ToT(Transfer of Technology), assistance & for setting up the production line in HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), $350 million or less for components procured from Irkut which wasn't manufactured by HAL, 26 aircraft kits supplied by Irkut & assembled by HAL, and the actual production in HAL. So the average cost of the HAL manufactured fighter is $34.35 million.

But that's not the whole story. Rs 22,122.78 crore for 140 aircraft in 2000 had to be revised to Rs 39,224.09 crore in July 2005. The cost is now estimated to be more than Rs 45,000 crore. For exchange rate of 46 Rupees for every U.S dollar that translates to $4809 million, $8527 million & $9783 million respectively. So price of each HAL manufactured Su-30MKI has increased from $34.35 million in 2000, to $61 million in 2005, to finally $70 million currently, according to CAG's(Comptroller and Auditor General of India) estimation.
Reference 2

Deal 4(2007): A new deal was signed for fast track acquisition of 40 Su-30MKI jets from Russia. Quoting ACM Tyagi "The deal will be signed within this financial year. They will come for a little less than $40 million apiece"
Reference 3

Deal 5: Initially it was reported that 50 Su-30MKI jets are to be acquired from HAL. Unit flyaway cost around $45 million. So the total cost will be around $2250 million. However the deal was revised to only 42 jets. The cost of the deal is reported to be $4.3 billion, which includes some upgrades. It appears CAG's estimation of cost overruns in Deal 3, is finally allocated in this deal.
Reference 4
Reference 5
Reference 6

http://www.angelfire.com/falcon/fighter ... icost.html

Dmurphy · Post by **Dmurphy** » 18 Aug 2010 21:24

Ajatshatru wrote:So if the 82 to be manufactured after 2012-13 are of the "new standards", does one conclude then that the 90 which are yet to be inducted (and would be of "initial standards") may be ready for upgradation (in a few months/year(s) time) barely after being inducted into the IAF?

Yes, if you want to see it that way. But going by what IAF has done up till now, it doesn't intend to upgrade the 190 a/cs as yet. At least not in the foreseeable future. May be they will wait till a mature PAK-FA rolls out and then perhaps think of re-arming the 190 MKIs with probable spin offs from the PAK-FA project - which i presume will be even better than what the last 82 MKIs are getting.

Vikram W · Post by **Vikram W** » 18 Aug 2010 21:55

Philip wrote:JSF was quoted at around $130 million according to latest media reports.The extra costs for a fully upgraded Flanker seem not too unreasonable,especially if as quoted,many of the specs will include tech and sensors,etc. that are to be used on the 5th-gen fighter.If a large fighter like a hugely upgraded Flanker comes in at around $100 million,then an MMRCA of Rafale/Typhoon class should be available at around $75-85 million.As was mentioned above,there may be some hidden costs,like costs of developing some of the 5th-gen tech and systems which will be used on the upgraded Su-30s,which might indicate why the unit cost appears to be high when compared with earlier costs per unit.

israel just ordered 20 F-35s at $95m a piece.

and i guess this does make the $102m for SU30 look very expensive

Dmurphy · Post by **Dmurphy** » 18 Aug 2010 21:58

krish.pf wrote:It appears CAG's estimation of cost overruns in Deal 3, is finally allocated in this deal.

Hailing from a procurement background, I can tell you, if MOD's done that, they're absolute asses. They've thrown the entire item costing into a tizzy.

Such backlogs should be cleared through exchange of credit notes / debit notes onlee.

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 02:15

DELETED.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Aug 2010 03:57

Vikram W wrote: israel just ordered 20 F-35s at $95m a piece.

and i guess this does make the $102m for SU30 look very expensive

We have been through this discussion (much, much) earlier. Even IF India were to order JSF, India will have to stand in line to get them and will get them around 2025-30ish.

For whatever reason/s the MKI's cost has escalated. However, they, I assume, fill a very, very important strategic need. Embedded in that cost could also be the cost of voting for India at the UN.

?????????????

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 19 Aug 2010 04:01

AnuragK,

1) This is NOT part of the upgrade. You might want to identify your wish list and no need posting the entire history behind it. PPL on BRF have been around to know their origins and if not, Google can come to their rescue!
2) NEVER post articles without LINKS! This is Plagiarism

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 19 Aug 2010 05:01

nrshah wrote:
You are not getting things in correct perspective... In your case, what justification you give when you buy sugar at 40 rs/kg when the same was available 20 rs/kg some couple of years back?

You cannot compare two quotes of rate at two different point of time... Time itself has its own value... for comparison, either of the rate needs to be converted into the others time frame... for this either you discount the current rate to past time or you compound past rate to current.. This is well established norm thru out the world... While it might have some limitation, there is not alternative as of now.......

For Mig 21, it cannot be considered under the time value of money method...For it does not take into account the effect of obsolence....the price we are talking or MKI is the same version which was in 1997 and today...Although, i m not supportive of cost escalation, there is still a lot of confusion what is the actual price... Refer my earlier post where India strategic quotes a rate of 50 Mn USD.... Also, please understand the mode of payments for Arihant consultancy and such other projects...

That is exactly what I'm arguing. Escalation of cost of sugar is a part of CPI (Consumer price index which measures your cost of living or what you have been calling 'inflation'). You cannot use CPI as an index for measuring cost of technology intensive products. See my example of laptops or your own explanation of why Mig-21s do not fit into this model of price conversion (because of obsolesence as you put it). Yet you argue for price conversion of a 1997 MKI in 2010 terms - why wouldn't the technological obsolesence argument be relevant in this case? - the product is 13 years old by now. So this 'constant price' argument is not relevant here especially if indexed to inflation (CPI).

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 19 Aug 2010 05:12

If the 42 Su are going to be built @ hal, then most of the cost escalation is due to HAL and profits will also go to HAL so why

....How much will Russia get out of this deal ( i guess some licensing fees and costs towards a few components

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 05:34

arnab wrote:
That is exactly what I'm arguing. Escalation of cost of sugar is a part of CPI (Consumer price index which measures your cost of living or what you have been calling 'inflation'). You cannot use CPI as an index for measuring cost of technology intensive products. See my example of laptops or your own explanation of why Mig-21s do not fit into this model of price conversion (because of obsolesence as you put it). Yet you argue for price conversion of a 1997 MKI in 2010 terms - why wouldn't the technological obsolesence argument be relevant in this case? - the product is 13 years old by now. So this 'constant price' argument is not relevant here especially if indexed to inflation (CPI).

First get your fundas and facts right.
Inflation is a function of M3 which is the monetary responsibility of any nations Central bank and has no relation with CPI.
CPI is is an index constituted by the federal govt of nation comprising of a basket of mix of certain items particular to that nation.
Go look up some basic text of macroeconomics.
So, please stop masquerading as a know-all.

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 05:48

[quote="Craig Alpert"]AnuragK,

1) This is NOT part of the upgrade. You might want to identify your wish list and no need posting the entire history behind it. PPL on BRF have been around to know their origins and if not, Google can come to their rescue!
2) NEVER post articles without LINKS! This is Plagiarism[/quo

So, please enlighten us as to what is the upgrade. Since you seem to be knowing it, please share it with us.
I know what is plagiarism. If there were links, I would have been only too happy to provide the same rather than type the whole thing out.
As for people on BRF knowing everything about everything is quite evident if you only take the pains of perusing/reading the last 12 pages of this thread itself and it will be self-evident as to how much knowledge is floating around.
Incidentally I took care to read fully from page 39 to page 48 of this thread before i started posting.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 19 Aug 2010 05:56

AnuragK wrote:

First get your fundas and facts right.
Inflation is a function of M3 which is the monetary responsibility of any nations Central bank and has no relation with CPI.
CPI is is an index constituted by the federal govt of nation comprising of a basket of mix of certain items particular to that nation.
Go look up some basic text of macroeconomics.
So, please stop masquerading as a know-all.

gee - I can understand you must have only read macro economics text books - 'inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon'

So tell me - why do governments construct a CPI index? for fun?

Even wikipidia would do:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index

The percent change in the CPI is a measure estimating inflation. The CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effect of inflation on the real value of money: the medium of exchange) wages, salaries, pensions, and regulated or contracted prices.

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 19 Aug 2010 07:02

AnuragK wrote: As for people on BRF knowing everything about everything is quite evident if you only take the pains of perusing/reading the last 12 pages of this thread itself and it will be self-evident as to how much knowledge is floating around.

Well, aren't we lucky that you have finally arrived to enlighten us ignorant folks.

Also, you seem to be way insecure and aggressive in your reply to a perfectly civil and sensible post by Craig. And if you have queries regarding plagiarism and MKI upgrade (you seem to have a lot of misunderstanding in those areas), it is my humble suggestion that you use newbie thread.

JimmyJ · Post by **JimmyJ** » 19 Aug 2010 07:07

There is an urgent need for some Su 30 MKI and good number of SAMs for personal defense here

Dmurphy · Post by **Dmurphy** » 19 Aug 2010 10:28

Mohotarma uvhacha: "IAF operates approximately 200 Sukhois"

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Aug 2010 10:34

I hope the upgrade of MKI they get a capable MAWS and DIRC

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2010 11:24

MKM has it already I think.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 19 Aug 2010 11:57

^MKM has MAWS but not DIRCM, no? I thought only f 35 is getting DIRCM that too in distant future, no other plane has any plans for it.

vishnu.nv · Post by **vishnu.nv** » 19 Aug 2010 12:59

JimmyJ wrote:There is an urgent need for some Su 30 MKI and good number of SAMs for personal defense here

You need Ramba for personal defense

Dmurphy wrote:Mohotarma uvhacha: "IAF operates approximately 200 Sukhois"

Generally speaking , This lady is a joke in defense reporting. Any body with some experience of lurking in BRF forums can do better than her despite of her defense background.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 Aug 2010 13:06

Austin wrote:I hope the upgrade of MKI they get a capable MAWS and DIRC

there are no working or in the near future DIRCM for fighters. F-35 is billed to be the first that too well into this decade.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Aug 2010 13:08

May be there could be DIRCM under development for 5th gen fighter that gets in to MKI ? Perhaps some derivative of President-S or something else ?

Another thing to look forward will be the L-Band wing mounted AESA radar , that would be a nice addition to cue up against low RCS target when combined with the X band radar

vishnu.nv · Post by **vishnu.nv** » 19 Aug 2010 13:14

What all will be the upgrades for the weapons. will any of the new missiles being developed for the PAK FA will get to this upgrade? KS-172 ?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 Aug 2010 13:24

Austin, eventually but not in the short term I think. for that matter even HAL is making one for LCH. what I do hope makes it to the upg is the OLS-35 or even the OLS-50.

vishnu, we simply don't know, the KS-172 seems to have fallen off public radar. the R-74 and an advanced variant of the R-77 are other options. we should know by the next MAKS.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2010 13:28

I thought only some helicopters had dircm, but if fighters are getting it too, not a bad thing.

all our fighters need MAWS and wingtip towed decoy not just MKI. even the top of tailfin could be considered if wingtip is a issue.

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 13:29

Ajatshatru wrote:

Wow....relax tiger....you need to, perhaps, lighten up a bit....

Thanks for the tip............just avoided a crash landing!

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 13:43

Austin wrote:May be there could be DIRCM under development for 5th gen fighter that gets in to MKI ? Perhaps some derivative of President-S or something else ?

Another thing to look forward will be the L-Band wing mounted AESA radar , that would be a nice addition to cue up against low RCS target when combined with the X band radar

About DIRCM in the very near future seems a little doubtful, but the wing-mounted L-band is certainly a very strong probability since talk of the same has been going on for quite some time now with Elisra. If and when it does come, it will certainly be the Israeli one and not any other source.

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 13:51

Singha wrote:all our fighters need MAWS and wingtip towed decoy not just MKI. even the top of tailfin could be considered if wingtip is a issue.

Could not agree with you more. Wonder why IAF tends to neglect this area. It may be recalled that CMDS was not on the IAF's radar until after the infamous Kargil stinger incident though CMDS has been around for quite a while now.

AnuragK · Post by **AnuragK** » 19 Aug 2010 14:08

Rahul M wrote:vishnu, we simply don't know, the KS-172 seems to have fallen off public radar. the R-74 and an advanced variant of the R-77 are other options. we should know by the next MAKS.

The last that that was heard of the K-172 was that the project was in limbo due to lack of funding. Also, there was news of DRDO stepping in with funds to bail the project out on co-development and co-marketing basis based on the Brahmos model. After that nothing has been heard so far. So, it it will be in the somewhat distant future if anything materializes at all.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Aug 2010 14:18

Rahul M wrote:Austin, eventually but not in the short term I think. for that matter even HAL is making one for LCH. what I do hope makes it to the upg is the OLS-35 or even the OLS-50.

What is OLS-50 google does not throw up any thing ?

vishnu, we simply don't know, the KS-172 seems to have fallen off public radar. the R-74 and an advanced variant of the R-77 are other options. we should know by the next MAKS.

If IAF needs AAM for long range right now there is R-37 available there is the R-37M that has longer range , not sure why should we spend on KS-172 which ends up duplicating system.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 Aug 2010 16:17

OLS-50 is supposedly the IRST system for PAKFA. OLS-35 is on su-35 IIRC.

R-37 is quite an old design and I expect KS-172 or K-100 or whatever it is called these days (both novator and vympel were said to be in the competition) to be much better in terms of sensors, datalink and even raw performance. it was also mentioned as being part of the PAKFA's arsenal, if memory serves right.