Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 20 Aug 2010 18:30

I dont think they would really want a war - but just fringe action to raise the prospect for diversion purposes. So I talked of brinkmanship.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Aug 2010 19:48

Pratyush wrote:B/ Aditya,

That's a scary prospect. Am quite sure that this will be tried. The Security arrangement will be a nightmare for the security forces.

Pratyush - you must remember that Indian security forces have had to live with this nightmare every year for Republic day, Dussera, Diwali, Ganesh Chaturti, Independence day and all other public holidays apart from sporting and other events such as IPL. Our people are good and competent, despite setbacks, failures and traitors.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Aug 2010 20:13

Shiv,

You are obviously correct. This is a nightmare they must live with. I am just pointing out How difficult a task safe conduct of the CWG will be for the security apparatus (SF). Moreover as a Delhiite, I have experienced the safe conduct of hundreds of mega events over the years. Which is the best compliment any one can give to the SF.

So once again I don't question the competence of the SF just am acknowledging the challenges being faced by the SF. Thats all

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Aug 2010 21:12

Aditya_V wrote:
(b) Precipitate a war with India to escape the dilemma of the "western front" (not to kill but to kill - Talebs) and focus public anger away from floods and its consequences to raising the spectre of a higher "existential" threat. But they will need to find a good excuse to do so. It can be ultimate brinkmanship of threatening war but not having in reality to go to war. Not sure how it can be pulled off on the ground.
Very Simple mastermind a Mumbai type terrorist attack against India especially with the Common wealth games, Kill 2 Birds with 1 stone

AdityaM, Can you take look at my earlier post and come up with what can TSP do?

A few things to think about.

TSP khaata(account):
- Economy in doldrums needing massive money from US
- TTP etc taking over the lands west of Indus
- Constant religious inspired terrorism all over the country
- Military can't fight the insurgents as it fears India will take advantage
- Floods devastate 40% of land area and over 10M people homeless
- Relief works show TSP incapacity despite massive funds transfusion atleast since 9/11
- India is shining despite best efforts to stoke the million muitinies

India khaata (account)
- Mumbai terrorist attack is past the consciousness
- On the way to economic stardom. US now has India specific anti labor quotas
- Getting ready to host Commonwealth Games to show case Indian achievments
- The fake intefada in Kashmir failed
- Space launch power

What does a Paki general do to hisab chukaana or settle account?

Please think like a Paki and come up with all the scenarios they can come up with.

I think a Mumbai style West coast operation is ruled out for India is ready for it as it would be repeat.

How about a helicopter borne assault on Chennai or northwards from a "direlect" Panamanian registered container ship? Does IN monitor all shipping and inspect all the vessels regardless of origin or again give it a pass claiming Coast Guard juridiction? And put on the "deer in headlights" stance.

I want off the wall scenarios and what it takes to counter them. I know Indian security forces are hardworking but Mumbai and many other attacks have already taken place.

Also what about putting the IAF and IA on alert during the CWG to reduce the usual six month readiness response? And move IN units to the Arabian Sea as forward deployment for "exercises".

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 20 Aug 2010 21:15

most likely is a spate of bomb attacks across non metro cities dressed up to look like local grievances

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Aug 2010 21:17

Lalmohan wrote:most likely is a spate of bomb attacks across non metro cities dressed up to look like local grievances

Naxals will be used.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 20 Aug 2010 21:28

Every Pakistani attack has been an escalation from the previous one. My vote goes to:

A deliberate introduction of a contagious disease, such as plague in one of the Tier 2 cities at the time of CWG. The city will be smaller like , say, Nagpur and far away from Delhi to have plausible deniability. The impact will be immediate in terms of cancellation of CWG due to travel restrictions, not to mention economic impacts. Chances of being traced back to Pakistan are low as well.

The only disadvantage from a Paki perspective is that a public spectacle of Ghazi jehadis killing the kuffr Hindus wont be seen, with the associated bloody mayhem. For a perverted Paki general mind, the sight of a jehadi killing innocent unarmed men, women and children of the kuffr is a sign of their manhood and superiority. The pleasure to them is almost sexual.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Aug 2010 21:34

ramana wrote:
What does a Paki general do to hisab chukaana or settle account?

Please think like a Paki and come up with all the scenarios they can come up with.

Can Uncle also have a kujli that India is now shining and Pak is left behind

http://www.addictedtowar.com/docs/The.W ... .World.pdf
WHAT I’VE LEARNED ABOUT U.S. FOREIGN POLICY

Daniel Sheehan: “There exists in operation now, a secret team of some two dozen men, former Central
Intelligence Agency covert operatives, former U.S. Pentagon arms suppliers, who have joined together in a
private enterprise outside of the control of the American government, either the Congress or the President, who
are mounting their personal wars around the world.”

Narrator: “Whether there is actually an organized secret team, or simply a loose association of individuals, it
is clear that there are a number of people who have been working actively behind the scenes in these covert
operations.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Aug 2010 21:49

brihaspati wrote:

(b) Precipitate a war with India to escape the dilemma of the "western front" (not to kill but to kill - Talebs) and focus public anger away from floods and its consequences to raising the spectre of a higher "existential" threat. But they will need to find a good excuse to do so. It can be ultimate brinkmanship of threatening war but not having in reality to go to war. Not sure how it can be pulled off on the ground.

This is a possibility. Use of catastrophic events is one way of doing this.
Removing the focus away from the flood victims and the misery is high priority. After 2005 earthquake the news about the victims and relief work vanished from the media

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 20 Aug 2010 21:49

^^^ India is not shining?

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 20 Aug 2010 22:44

Has anyone thought that an attack on CWG with athletes from CW (read firangs) will further aggravate the 'feelings' for the RoPers? If at all, the assault will be more symbolic in nature and target the SDRE junta.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Aug 2010 22:59

rohitvats wrote:Has anyone thought that an attack on CWG with athletes from CW (read firangs) will further aggravate the 'feelings' for the RoPers? If at all, the assault will be more symbolic in nature and target the SDRE junta.

Agree. So what symbols are potential targets? Please make a comprehensive list. We can then narrow down based on what was already tried out.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 20 Aug 2010 23:28

Jarita wrote:^^^ India is not shining?

It's pretty evident. It is not as though India has gone far ahead or is out of Unkils control that Unkil needs to resort to Kayanisque folks to bring India back in line. There is nothing to be jealous off.
The present government in India continue to sell Indian assets and have made India a massive market for Unkils goods and services i.e., GMO and Nuke Liability bill. It is to unkils advantage to keep this large market going.
Perhaps Unkil does not need to leverage the Pakis as much as done in the past.

That said, it is also to Unkils advantage to occupy/ situate troops in the northernmost territory of India. That way you control a large market by controlling its b^&ls i.e., water, trade routes. That way, you also have troops and presence close to China and Russia. It also gives you access to special trade routes in the region.

I suspect unkils moves will be very specific going forward and the threat perception from current Indian government is very low. Ultimately it is 3 or 4 things for Unkil & Aunty -
1) will we be able to extract value out of that region and what geographic, demographic configuration does it need to be to extract value
2) can we extract value continually till there is nothing left
3) what configuration do we need to ensure that in the long run the region is no military, competitive and civilizational threat to us
4) how do we minimize inflow of human resources from the region while generating a high return on investment

The questions are not complete by any standards but some answers will tell us how these folks think about us and whether Pakistan will sustain. Of course, if one were Pakistan either one could become the best "pros&**tute" out there or become a blackmailer of sorts.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 21 Aug 2010 00:26

My personal radar feels that chances of a vimaan apaharan from any of the ME air hubs carrying angrezi or dakshin afreeki atheletes is high. This vimaan could be diverted to northeastern eye-ran or worse, into AFG itself. What follows will be dhamkee from Talib or even AQ itself for money but the real damage will unfortuately be a H&D downer for desh and the rehyphenation.

Also, notice that Dawood might have very little space to play around in TSP after the floods, so he might try a armed stunt in Mangalore-northern SRK (Kozhikode-Kasargod-Mallapuram). The place is hot now with Madhani proceedings on. Something like railgaadi durghatna.

Repeat of Akshardham is quite possible.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 21 Aug 2010 00:48

Something big in J&K where plausible deniability ("it was Kashmiris, not us") and which will draw international attention to J&K.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Aug 2010 01:15

So the options listed so far are:
1) Mumbai style terrorists attack on non-metor cities
2) Something in J&k to have palusible deniability and bring back world attention
3) Attack during and the CW Games
4) Attacks blamed on naxals
5) Attack on temple towns like Akshardham
6) Attack on West coastal South India like Kerala-Mangalore region. Blame locals
7) Attacks on symbols of India instead of the CWG

We next need to dig deeper into these options as to why and wherefore. Try to cite any press reports on surveillance or nexus between diparate elements.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 21 Aug 2010 02:18

There is a pattern that we are missing probably : all the peripheral countries around India are riding an increasing level of tension and conflicts. In Nepal there is a renewal of Maoist-non-maoist contest, in BD there is a renewal of AL-BNP+Jamat contest, In SL the internal fight is not resolved. In all three , somehow the military is involved, directly or indirectly. Myanmar shows similar trends. All of the regimes are somehow coming under a stress-period at the same time that raises questions about the future stability of these regimes.

If Pak moves on India, it cannot be entirely on its own - it does not have the resources to sustain a campaign for long. So what if a strong supporter and "master" of Pak is planning this carefully? In steps :

(1) Destabilize the peripheral countries first. This draws India's attentions out and spreads it thin to tackle potential situations all along its borders.
(2) Activate the three internal fifth columnists. The Jihadis, Maoists, and possibly sections of EJ allied or having bases within various ethnicities or social groups.

Cross border collaborations can occur between Maoists inside and Nepal Maoists, between Jihadis inside concentrated in possible networks all along the Gangetic valley and west and southern coastal India and those in BD+Pak, between EJ'ist in south and centre and east and surviving networks in SL possibly through deep cover elements of the LTTE. The "master" can possibly organize coordination of even collaborations between the three.

Pak is unlikely to exercise the nuke option on its own. Near its own ground, contamination may reduce the land value of the feudal ownership. However a shift of the regime along with PA more towards the Talebs may actually reduce the threshold for this aversion. Any actual conflict between USA or its proxies and Iran could be a trigger that is used also by the "master" to trigger a conflict within India.

Pak will increasingly use third parties inside India, but keep sufficient red herrings for India to start accusing Pak. This will then serve as the excuse to mobilizie against India but not go to war actually until and unless the internal "trouble" is sufficiently distracting for the GOI.

There are two major potential flashpoints being prepared to draw China and Russia into "war" - the eastern arena around Korea [Russia conducted Vostok on the eastern front at a very large scale this July with Chinese observers at a "crucial" phase], and the central one in AFGIRan.

I am not sure how FPwallahs in ND, or IA command will take it - but maybe, firm understandings to form a NATO like or a proto-SATO mutual defence agreement that binds the armies of the peripheral nations in a stable framework would be one way of thwarting the political destabilization route being followed by the "master" given that the political side of the regimes there are yet to attain maturity. It is not entirely impossible that some of these peripheral nations may be forced to go to the "army-rule" format in he foreseeable future and we should be able to tie them up. The second urgent step from the GOI side should be a targeted elimination of the Maoist, Jihadi and EJist networks on an accelerated level. If they are allowed to exist longer, they will be activated as part of the general geo-strategic game for Asia.

India cannot be safeguarded by strictly defending and taking measures within borders. The external inputs from and through neighbours have to be gripped - covertly, diplomatically or otherwise, by actively pursuing a programme to lock in the infrastructure to supply potential violence within India that exists in the neighbours. Even if only Pak remain outside this ring, that would be a great reduction in the threat.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2010 06:19

A_Gupta wrote:Something big in J&K where plausible deniability ("it was Kashmiris, not us") and which will draw international attention to J&K.

Watching the news last night - I saw that there was a piece about Sikhs being threatened and asked to leave J&K.

It occurs to me that a big push was planned on Kashmir before the floods and it will be retstarted soon. The stone throwing etc was Paki inspired. The Hindu has had two articles on the Islamists in Kashmir. This is the mechanism by which a Taliban like system is being introduced into J&K.

Whatever it is it needs to be crushed. But expect trouble in J&K in the near term.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 21 Aug 2010 06:52

There is a point which is missing from the all the discussions involving how involved the Indian Army can get in CI and LICs in around the country.

The deployment plans of IA are effective enough to defeat pakistan in a full fledged war, hold China at the border AND defeat a major insurgency in the country. That is why pakistan and its masters need two insurgencies in India to keep it under strategic pressure. (This was one of the reasons why I had supported strong action by Narendra Modi, otherwise Gujarat would have gone the Kashmir way).

All major insurgency actions against India should be seen in the light of this strategic condition.

The recent disturbance in Kashmir was necessary to engage Indian Army and keep it away from the border - so that paki troops could be deployed against taliban/AQ forces on paki's western border. But the floods have put paid to this angle. The floods have changed the strategic dimension of the subcontinent (temporarily, at least) by :
1. Disengaging PA from the requirement to fight jehadis (PA generals now have a ready reason not to fight them).
2. By making it impossible for IA and PA to start full scale hostilities against each other. The high waters also give the assurance that any invasion (by either side) will be difficult.

These two reasons make continued disturbance in Kashmir both impractical and redundant respectively, at the same time. Hence, it was winded down.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 21 Aug 2010 07:21

The future course of the game will be determined by the condition in which pakistan will be after the floods. It is very much possible that by early next year, pakistan will be on the brink of break up. The signal development for that would be whether PA is divided against itself or not - which would happen on the lines of jehadi versus non-jehadi segments.

India's best interests would be served if PA breaks down - removal of the threat on the western border, destruction of the Kashmiri movement, release of IA to pressurise China. It is interesting then that our best interests will be served if the jehadis capture large parts of PA

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 21 Aug 2010 07:36

America's first option will be what it always has been - to support paki state as far as possible, as long as it does what US tells it to (or makes a great show of doing so). That will not be possible if the jehadis break up PA - it will no longer be possible for PA generals to maintain the lie that they can get the job done. In that case, US will withdraw all aid, and paki elite will flee the country. As it is, they have nest eggs maintained outside pakistan for such an eventuality. In that case, pakistan, which does not have a strong middle class, will lose its top class as well - effectively leaving the country without direction. This vacuum will be filled in by the jehadi elements.

What is really the wild card is America's approach to these talibs. It will be very difficult for the self appointed leader of the free and civilzed world to claim that position if they associate with talibs. This is where I feel Osama can be sacrificed - it will enable America to declare victory and cozy up to the talibs.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Aug 2010 10:08

rohitvats wrote:Has anyone thought that an attack on CWG with athletes from CW (read firangs) will further aggravate the 'feelings' for the RoPers? If at all, the assault will be more symbolic in nature and target the SDRE junta.

Rohit,

I am not rally sure, if the Pakis and the Talibunies really want to show their superiority then they will not discriminate between the athletes and the SDREs. They will be really be indiscriminate cause this will be the ultimate escalation from Mumbai, add to this the possibility of Biological agents being used, you have th most spectacular terrorist attack in the world.

All India will do in return will be to issue umpteen more dossiers.

JMT

PS:-I have deliberately discounted the use of Chemical warfare agents.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 21 Aug 2010 10:23

I for one think that a 1972 olympics repeat is a possibility. A hostage situation like what black september did would be a juicy target for the pigs. Similar to the mumbai situation, only this time with a totally international set of people being held - which would open tons of international pressure on us rather than the mumbai case where we could take more time to clear things out.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 21 Aug 2010 10:53

I don't think anything will happen soon. abcc pointed out how attacks can be used to relieve IA pressure by drawing attention elsewhere, however if you think in that line of reasoning, an attack would have happened during the flood, because the Paki military forces will have been involved in flood relief and away from the border.

But at this point, any large terrorist attack will make it plainly obvious as to who's behind it and only increase pressure on Pak, so it wouldn't serve them any advantage.

With that said, I don't really know what tactical gains Pak was aiming for with 26/11 either so I could be wrong.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 21 Aug 2010 11:33

brihaspati wrote:There is a pattern that we are missing probably : all the peripheral countries around India are riding an increasing level of tension and conflicts. In Nepal there is a renewal of Maoist-non-maoist contest, in BD there is a renewal of AL-BNP+Jamat contest, In SL the internal fight is not resolved. In all three , somehow the military is involved, directly or indirectly. Myanmar shows similar trends.

Totally agree, GOI establishment urgently needs to fully secure transit airports in ME (Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain) and SE Asia through CISF. With Malaysia (a former Brit colony) steeping even more into Islamic type rule (with their recent provincial level shift to gold and silver currency), a mid-air version of Munich 1972 looks very strong, which is why I'd stated that a vimaan apaharan drama with gora atheletes being played out in either eye-ran/Yemen/Indonesia/Malaysia. Both scenarios could tax our MARCOS and IN's capabilities.

India is too big for a Munich style attack to take place on the ground as the perpretrators will have no place to escape.

A strong discouraging message could be sent out if a culprit like Afzal Guru is hanged before the opening ceremony, this could actually play spoilsport with any preparations for nefarious activity and might help agencies to even foil an attack.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 21 Aug 2010 16:20

I think nothing of any sort would happen in near future. A bomb going off here or there no longer counts in India. Pakis are $hit deep in trouble and the Generals want to garner as much moolah as possible before sympathy and flood waters go down. So whatever terrorism has to happen will happen next year once the Jehadis are again ready for 26/11 deux. Right now they too would be busy saving there goats, cows and women folk.
As far CWG games, Suresh Kalmad and his cohorts have done a far better job than ISI to discredit India for pretty long time to come. All Pakis need to do is prayer for couple of good rains just before opening ceremony to disrupt the CWG.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Aug 2010 23:47

More than preventing th next attack folks like SS Aiyar trying to facilitate it. The call for withdrawal of troops from border due to TSP flood CBM, to protect CWG etc are moves that will egg TSP to get go for it. On the contrary I would task the IN to Arabian Sea for naval exercise and and keep the IAF strike squadrons on alert to reduce the reaction time.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 23 Aug 2010 02:02

Well some could say that SS Ayiar is doing a "Sakunian" (I am using it instead of Chankyian) cool move - pretending that the border has gone soft to entice and trap Paki adventures with CWG as bait!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2010 22:24

Would fall for it if it weren't for his track record of self loathing.

SLIME = Self Loathing Indian Media Elite.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 26 Aug 2010 04:28

Actually, the ruling Indian govt thru its home minister has warned that Saffron Terror is the main rising terror threat to be worried about:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... Lr7vNUMdOQ

http://sify.com/news/chidambaram-assure ... ajghf.html

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article593450.ece

Since I'm not allowed by the moderators to accurately describe what kind of country India really is, and what kind of politicians it really has, let me celebrate our mutual admiration society by congratulating the ruling govt on their marvelous professionalism in bringing the Saffron Terror threat to our attention.

Enjoy the blissful paradise, everyone...

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 26 Aug 2010 16:24

Carl_T wrote:I don't think anything will happen soon. abcc pointed out how attacks can be used to relieve IA pressure by drawing attention elsewhere, however if you think in that line of reasoning, an attack would have happened during the flood, because the Paki military forces will have been involved in flood relief and away from the border.

But at this point, any large terrorist attack will make it plainly obvious as to who's behind it and only increase pressure on Pak, so it wouldn't serve them any advantage.

With that said, I don't really know what tactical gains Pak was aiming for with 26/11 either so I could be wrong.

So think counter intuatively - either pak establishment was not behind the attacks, or they calculated that the Indian govt would not attack them. If first, we need to ask who was actually behind this attacks. Is second, we need to understand that this time paki tactical brilliance actually worked.

My opinion on this is a little bit of both - like Buddha's path of moderation

The thing is pakistan could not have hoped to keep India off its back if enormous pressure on India would not have been beared. There are two countries that can actually prevent India from going to war despite this level of provocation - US and KSA. Both have our economic balls in their hands.

IOW, these three countries together could have possibly engineered 26/11, or at least Pak along with a section of US intelligence.

The biggest clue as to the motive of 26/11 is the fact that it was postponed from September to November - this is open knowledge and published in various news agencies.

So what changed between these 2 months? Obama's election.

Obama was the President elect during this time. GWB admin was still in place. War mongers in his admin engineered 26/11 so as to curtail Obama's options even before he took over as President. Remember that Obama had promised to reduce troops in Afghanistan as well as bring 'moderate' Taliban into power to help with that. This is anathema to sections of US establishment that still thinks in cold war terms of military bases and keeping lines of communication open to oil sources.

If we look at these people from the point of view of a police investigation, they had the means (links to Jehadi groups), the motive (curtailing Obama's options and continuing afghan war), and the opportunity (Obama's election).

The use of Daood Gilani shows that existing links were used in the execution of the massacre.

Recall that during the Gilani fiasco, two accusations were being bandied about - 1. that Gilani is a double agent, 2. that Gilani is a US agent.

The debate stopped when the lesser of the two accusations became irrefutable - that Gilani is a double agent. This alowed US and Indian media to bury the other accusation - that Gilani is a US agent. This was neither proved nor disproved - just buried.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 28 Aug 2010 04:38

Chidambaram Annoys Everyone with 'Saffron Terror' Remark

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Aug 2010 15:12

Sanjay M,

Still the moron Digvijay singh took the matter of the Coloured terror with the PM. With Hindus like him, we dont need jihadirs and EJs

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2010 20:36

Nightwatch on the two suspects on the Dutch flight. 9/1/2010

Netherlands-US-Yemen: Dutch authorities released the two Yemenis detained on suspicion of terrorism. "From investigations in the United States and in the Netherlands, there has been no indication of the men's possible involvement in any criminal act," the prosecution service said in a statement.

Special Comment: NightWatch judges several points are worth making about the public record of this incident. First, it showcases the difference between intelligence evidence and law enforcement evidence. Intelligence is actionable information aimed at the future - preventing a crime at the lowest cost based on a pattern. Law enforcement evidence focuses on the elements of a crime and the past - that a crime is about to be or has been committed - as the trigger for action. The thresholds for action and the nature and strength of the evidence are not the same.

The press reports of anomalous and unusual behavior - one-way tickets; lots of cash; the connection between O'Hare in Chicago and Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam which also was featured in the Christmas bombing attempt; luggage anomalies and the Yemen connection - are more than enough to take low cost preventive measures to be safe. A little inconvenient questioning of passengers before the flight left the US would seem justified and a small price to pay to ensure a safe flight across the Atlantic.

That is what actionable intelligence evidence is supposed to enable and empower. It creates its own luck.

That is not the same as legal evidence for potential use in a court of law. Would-be bombers on a dry run mission will not have broken any laws. Officials acting only on legal evidence to build a criminal case seldom would have grounds to detain such people, no matter how suspiciously they acted. Would-be bombers are extremists not fools.

Consider the report that the two men did not know each other, which some commentaries implied as supporting an inference of innocent travel. It is hard to believe that serious people would credit that as having any relevance, even if it proved to be true. When did suicide bombers start to travel in pairs on aircraft?

Nevertheless, there is no legal evidentiary basis to support a charge of suspicion of conspiracy, but the intelligence inferences lead to further questions about operational security practices and affiliations and are not so quick to come to closure on the issue of intent to commit a crime.

The second point is that officials took some action, albeit belatedly and not in time to save the aircraft had there been a bomb aboard. Security officials, especially the Dutch, appear to be taking seriously the indicators of anomalous behavior.

The timing and hesitance of the Chicago officials amount to a death warrant for passengers had there been an actual bombing. If the Chicago officials were concerned, what was the point of allowing the flight to proceed, notifying the Dutch, instead of taking action themselves? If a bomb had been on board, the flight would never have reached Holland.

If the notification of the Dutch came from some other analytical center in the US outside Chicago, then the US system is still broken, despite the explicit direction of the President last January. Detection and detention of suspected bombers doing a dry-run should have been a US responsibility, in Chicago.

The lesson of 60 plus years of strategic intelligence warning is a nation that seeks to be safe must pay the price to be safe. The intelligence evidence, not the law enforcement evidence, justified Chicago authorities imposing inconvenience on passengers whose behavior was similar to that of an earlier attempted bomber. That is a small price to pay for the safety of a flight.

Note: This commentary is based on the public record only. Clearly, officials on both sides of the Atlantic know more and may be fishing for more by releasing the two Yemenis. Nonetheless, the public coverage of this incident is not reassuring that US authorities have learned and applied the lessons from the attempted Christmas bombing.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Sep 2010 20:52

Australian and US citizens warned of terror attacks before Commonwealth games.

Let's give Pakistan another 25 million Dollars and thank them in anticipation.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Oct 2010 07:09

The CWG are done. Just putting in a post here to express appreciation to everyone in charge of security who ensured that the games went off with no threats other than a few snakes that were caught and released back in the wild.

Goes to prove the old saying "If you see a snake and a Paki together, get the Paki first"

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 15 Oct 2010 10:04

Unless I am missing something the poll ended in June 2009.. the 39% (within 3 months) and 43% (within 200) or for that matter next 15% ... How good was the prediction?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Oct 2010 14:38

Amber G. wrote:Unless I am missing something the poll ended in June 2009.. the 39% (within 3 months) and 43% (within 200) or for that matter next 15% ... How good was the prediction?

85% were wrong. The next attack came in Feb 2010 - the German Bakery blast in Pune.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Jul 2011 07:22

In hindsight, it appears that 96% were right in anticipating that there would be a terrorist attack. The timing may have been off. But we know that another one is coming.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 Jul 2011 11:35

shiv wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Unless I am missing something the poll ended in June 2009.. the 39% (within 3 months) and 43% (within 200) or for that matter next 15% ... How good was the prediction?
85% were wrong. The next attack came in Feb 2010 - the German Bakery blast in Pune.

One thing we have to note the terror attacks that were thwarted. We may never get to hear about them but we can be certain there were some. To that extent, the predictions could not be termed inaccurate.

We can expect a terrorist attack from Pakistan