China Military Watch

[Thomas Kolarek]

It could even be Unkil's strategy to create a threat environment in the region for their own strategic benefit.

So as per you, US controls China's Embassy and decides who it gives Visa to ? This is too much of imagination to take it, Don't you understand India is being snubbed by Chinese, and you finding conspiracies with out snubbing back.

[yantra]

Thomas, one page does not make a book. China denying Visa to an Indian General is not a US conspiracy - I never said that. India will find its own way to snub China back, it has already done some.

If you put all the pieces together of the events happening over the last couple of years, a picture starts to emerge. We all know, US has been prodding Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea, Japan in a direction it wants. Has been trying to do the same with India as well. If India is perceived as a US prick into China, China will certainly prick India back. And who gets to sell more arms to India in this case? JMTs

[manum]

It could even be Unkil's strategy to create a threat environment in the region for their own strategic benefit.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_ch ... ir_1430066
you think USA planted this news..

[Patrick Cusack]

China will start the war - before the winter. That will be the end to their dream of global domination - nice way to lose it!

[Thomas Kolarek]

India only buys what it wants from US. of course we are not buying anything junk here. India is right now in a good position, it can buy arms from both of the biggest Arms exporters, Russia and US.
I do agree that big picture, gets us to the point that threat is to push arm sales by West particularly US. But think of this, $10-30 billions of our money is nothing big for US, whose defense budget is whopping $680 billions (2010 official figure), 2011 budget is estimated to be $1.223 trillions.

Threat from China is real no denying that, China is trying to assert itself as a new Super Power and they do strongly believe that this is the century of Chinese. Problem in South China sea, is china trying to own the entire South China sea from the current position of international waters. We have our stake there too. If Asian Powers, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Russia doesn't push China back, we will be the losers. We just cant afford to lose in this century.

[manum]

We just cant afford to lose in this century.

i just hope, this century belongs to better world...i wont even say that it goes to righteous...
this thing of claiming sand in hand is not worth it...we should just get on with our larger beliefs,dreams and past experiences...China has emerged as a threat to whole Asia, even Australia...
I think its sudden death days are coming...if things are really pointing north...

[parshuram]

China is simply encircling us. Rail link to bangladesh - Myanmar, road link to nepal, road link to POK, gwadar port, what is left. They are making sure that several channels are available to them .... Some real aggressive moves are required from GOI to counter it

[Avinandan]

Mock up of new Chinese Attack Helicopter : Chinese new attack helicopter mockup
Mods: please remove the link if objectionable

It seems to be lighter version to WZ-10 helicopter, more in lines of LCH.
No known project from China for this yet...

Thanks,
Avinandan

[TonyMontana]

China has shown what a contrived, manufactured country it is. Everything is about the state, politbureau, Red Army, Communist Party, and pursuing a crude power-driven ethno-centric philosophy.

One of my pet hate of reading BRF is that a lot of members seems to still think they are fighting Red Communist China in the early to late 80's. Or you create this image of an enermy that is convenient to you. What does the Chinese say? Know enermy, know yourself. Win thousand battle. Unless Indians really figure out what the enermy you're fighting actually is, all the planning and strategy-talk are pointless.

Basically, the position of Tony Montana is that India should appease China, or else face more irritants and abuse.

Did China appease USA? Why are their economies so entangled they are now the beast with two heads? There's more to international politics than fight or flight.

China has emerged as a threat to whole Asia, even Australia...
I think its sudden death days are coming...if things are really pointing north...

I also noticed a lot of members counting down the death of the Chinese civilisation. As I said before you can't count on your enermy to fail as a strategy. What if China doesn't collapse for the forseeable future? How does that impact Indian interests? And future indian interests?

[Thomas Kolarek]

What ever make up chinese wear (market socialism), its still pig with lip stick for us (read Red Army). They lay arrogant to us and so our Strategy will be to put China in its place.

[TonyMontana]

What ever make up chinese wear (market socialism), its still pig with lip stick for us (read Red Army). They lay arrogant to us and so our Strategy will be to put China in its place.

That's my point exactly! How can you put China in its place if you still think you're fighting the Red Army? Even the name you gave is outdated. I would love for a member to actually describe what this "Red Army" you think India actually fighting is?

[Thomas Kolarek]

Chinese Red Army got changed to People's Liberation Army after 1945. So you think Chinese people got liberated and created PLA ?

[TonyMontana]

Chinese Red Army got changed to People's Liberation Army after 1945. So you think Chinese people got liberated and created PLA ?

Sorry. Maybe I'm not being clear. Could you please describe to me what do you think this current Red Army that is in charge of China is? Is it a cabel of PLA officers with a single minded determination for world domination? Is it a group of party elites that runs the country like their personal piggy bank and kills all who opposes them? What eactly do you think India is fighting against?

[chackojoseph]

That's my point exactly! How can you put China in its place if you still think you're fighting the Red Army? Even the name you gave is outdated. I would love for a member to actually describe what this "Red Army" you think India actually fighting is?

What exactly is the difference between red army of yesterday and PLA of today?

[Bade]

What eactly do you think India is fighting against?

What India should be planning to fight against is Chinese Imperialistic ambition. Whether it needs to be called the Red Army or the Green Army is a moot point. So the fight is not limited to the military sphere, but everywhere. How about that ? And 'fight' here is probably too crude a term to use, and implicitly understood to mean 'challenge' in a meaningful way.

[Thomas Kolarek]

Looks like Tony has more rosy picture of China (most probably the one perceived from the Chinese State owned media) and wants us to forget the older China.
At the moment, China seems to be misreading everything. They don't seems to understand the strategic insignificance they are getting to. Time will tell where it takes them.

[derkonig]

The rag tag led army was aimed towards maintaining "harmony" in the mainland while guarding against the evil capitarist folces onlee. The PLA of today is now of an offensive entity aimed towards muscle flexing, it has shed its inward looking & mainland focus to more of an imperialist force.

[chackojoseph]

All are right answers. Since no one knows what PLA wants.

[Varoon Shekhar]

"One of my pet hate of reading BRF is that a lot of members seems to still think they are fighting Red Communist China in the early to late 80's. Or you create this image of an enermy that is convenient to you. What does the Chinese say?"

What might convince, and certainly impress, people is evidence of a major change. It's not enough to say you're no longer the China of old. Show it, by citing instances where major publications and individuals took a dissenting, opposing, exposing stance, and that too publicly. Not in discreet coffee houses.

For example, it is well known that China supported the genocidal Khmer Rouge and its sadistic leader, Pol Pot. Show instances where Chinese publications and/or individuals openly expressed their horror at this policy, and for what it did to the Cambodian people. Give a view of the Sino-Vietnam war of '79 that is different from the politbureau, and cite the view. And of course, being an Indian forum, definitely show major dissenting voices on the subject of the Sino-Indian war of 1962. There must be someone( just one?) person in China who openly thinks that China was the aggressor, rather than the peace loving progressive socialist valiantly staving off the reactionary Indian bourgeois imperialists. In India, those who think India was more responsible for that war, are certainly not liked, but neither are they persecuted, ostracised or demonised.

[manum]

"rights" is a umbrella word or concept which covers a range of issues to do with citizenship, equality, justice and legitimacy, and its a word combining three basic words claim, power and liberty...
if this word is upheld in topmost position in any government...it'll be people's government ...now we have to just seek what is in case of PRC or red army...

[krisna]

China warships dock in Burma, rattling rival naval power India

China and India have overlapping ambitions in the Indian Ocean. So as China flexes its naval reach, India is left debating how to assume leadership in the Indian Ocean.

[Indranil]

I don't want to dissect Tony's comment or drift. But he has a point. We should definitely analyse the Chinese threat much more closely ... Their philosophies aside, they are a commendable (in terms of strength) enemy to have ... I must say that the modern Chinese not only have quantity, but a lot of their equipment is quite a lot on the cutting edge ... Don't shoot me down for this, I am just writing down my evaluation as cold bloodedly as I can ... Underestimating our enemy is going to be criminal.

My biggest fear at the moment is whatever they can produce, we can buy equipment on-par and above-par. But how long can we sustain this race by importing? My observation is more keenly in terms of aviation ... I don't care how they (Chinese) can build them (obviously they have been immoral), but at the end of the day they are at the cusp of (or have already mastered) the know-how of building the whole gamut of aviation requirements, be it transport aircraft, helicopters, gunships, fighters, trainers. Heck they are close to building and operationalizing a "F-22" equivalent within the next decade completely on their own (by whatever means). If we went to war with them, nobody will care for the moral things (This was also reflected upon by the VCAM). They would have them, and we would not!

I see the military response against China taking shape ... but I feel it is agonizingly slow ...

I know its another aimless observation which doesn't add anything ... but it will be great to know if the posters have any bright ideas how we could somehow have a faster route for indigenization ... For one I feel this one PSU handles all is not sufficing ... There is no competition, no urgency ... I mean, it seems ok to slip behind schedule for years ... no heads role ... and if the effort fails to bear fruit, we can always import and get "full" TOT.

Even if defense has to stay under the PSU umbrella ... There can't be one NAL, one HAL etc. etc.

One more thing that I feel is this tendency of the GoI to safeguard PSUs should now subside ... The P-75I is a prime example ... I mean let the PSUs gain the market by merit ... They have a huge head start above the private sector at present, in know-how, infrastructure, trained people ... Obviously there is the looming probability of the private companies poaching the trained guys through higher salaries ... Is that a real threat? If yes,would that be bad, if that results in higher turn around time of the projects undertaken? If it is bad, is there a way to stop that?

Is a symbiosis that the government can work out within the private and public industries? It is already in place. For example HAL uses parts made by private companies, and MDL uses L&T. But how could this be amplified/balanced so that HAL churns out aircrafts and MDL churns out submarines faster. Basically, can we possibly grow the private industries to produce stronger feeding lines for the PSUs which specialize in putting these things together at an overall faster rate?

P.S. Moving it to the right India's R&D in Defence DRDO, PSUs and Private Sector thread.

[TonyMontana]

What might convince, and certainly impress, people is evidence of a major change. It's not enough to say you're no longer the China of old. Show it, by citing instances where major publications and individuals took a dissenting, opposing, exposing stance, and that too publicly. Not in discreet coffee houses.

What you're suggesting is that because not ALL of the aspects of the old system has changed. Therefore the old system remains. Whereas my view is that yes, the many control aspect of the old system remains (OT:this was how the Chinese always did things and they like it, who are you to judge?). But the political thinking and goals of the people in power has changed. Their reactions to issues have changed. There's more interest groups (middle class/business) to look after. To think you're still fighting the same bunch of old guards with the same old ideas are a disadvantage to India.

For example, it is well known that China supported the genocidal Khmer Rouge and its sadistic leader, Pol Pot. Show instances where Chinese publications and/or individuals openly expressed their horror at this policy, and for what it did to the Cambodian people.
Chinese people don't really care. And the people that care already know.
Give a view of the Sino-Vietnam war of '79 that is different from the politbureau, and cite the view.
And of course, being an Indian forum, definitely show major dissenting voices on the subject of the Sino-Indian war of 1962. There must be someone( just one?) person in China who openly thinks that China was the aggressor, rather than the peace loving progressive socialist valiantly staving off the reactionary Indian bourgeois imperialists. In India, those who think India was more responsible for that war, are certainly not liked, but neither are they persecuted, ostracised or demonised.

You must be really disappointed with humanity. The sad reality of the world is that the victor writes the History. What about Stalin? What about all the Japanese doctors in Unit 731? What about Geroge W Bush? We can all feel angst about it. But that's how this planet works. To me this seems a little...hypocritical. Besides. Those are all done by what I consider the previous Dynasty. Look at the current Dynasty. I would dare say the response to the Tibetan and Uygur riots are "measured" by traditional Chinese standards. I think you would agree with me that it would've been a lot more bloody if it happened 30 years earlier. That in itself is "improvment". Movements in the right direction. That's something Indians need to take into account when forming strategies to counter China.

[Indranil]

Tony ... it would be interesting to know your point of view in plain English ... just table your POV of what we should do instead of trying to second guess us.

In short lets hear how you would like the cards to be played, if you were an Indian?

[TonyMontana]

Tony ... it would be interesting to know your point of view in plain English ... just table your POV of what we should do instead of trying to second guess us.

In short lets hear how you would like the cards to be played, if you were an Indian?

Alright. Here's a quick and dirty version. Just thinking out loud here.

1) Economic growth. Everything else is secondary. There's a saying in China. Economic depravation is the greatest human rights abuse. How do you acheve this is up to you. Indians knows India better than anyone else.

2) Once that is achieved. Then everything becomes easier. Military hardware, infrastructure will follow naturally. You can worry about equality and liberal ideals when everyone is above the povety line.

3)Economic entanglement. Find out what the Chinese want and sell it to them. If China can do it to America, why can't India do it to China? China is trying to move away from low cost manufacturing. Why can't India fill that void?

4)Build your strength at the border. But don't go too overboard. India is quite capable of defending conventionally. Every dollar you save in the military is a dollar you can spend on development. If 1 and 3 is done. The borders will be settled in India's favour.

5)Make Pakistan irrelevent. The thought driving China in my opinion is fear not greed(ie world domination). China fears losing access to the Indian Ocean. If 1 and 3 are done well enough, why can't China partner up with a stable India and build a high speed rail through India instead of Pakistan to access the Indian Ocean?

6)Right now it's more beneficial to China to antagonise India. India could confront. But that's a lose-lose game. Or India could see what it can do to make it beneficial to China to NOT antagonise India. This is not appeasement. Just good business. I keep bringing this up. Look at China-America. Proof of Concept.

[Thomas Kolarek]

With out a safe Security cover, Economic Development is just not feasible. The Chinese game is to slow India's development, but what we hate in it is the arrogant way they do it. So its good for India to put China in its place, what ever alliance it takes.
When Chinese don't think about co existing with India as a global power, why should we bend to break our back. Whether Chinese accept it or not, India is a Big Elephant in their room. Sooner they realize good for both of us.

[TonyMontana]

With out a safe Security cover, Economic Development is just not feasible.

I would say India today is safe from conventional military attacks. India's biggest problem is not a conventional chinese military attack, it's the internal destablising forces.

The Chinese game is to slow India's development, but what we hate in it is the arrogant way they do it. So its good for India to put China in its place, what ever alliance it takes.

What's the non-arrogant way of fvcking someone over? Would you perfer the Chinese to be more sneaky when trying to undermine India's interests? You are taking this way to personally. This is what countries do to each other since forever. To expect others not to do this is naive. Putting china in its place is your pride talking. It's a bad idea to plan a strategy around emotions.

When Chinese don't think about co existing with India as a global power, why should we bend to break our back. Whether Chinese accept it or not, India is a Big Elephant in their room. Sooner they realize good for both of us.

Because India is NOT a global power. Yet. And China is treating India like she's NOT a global power. No one's gonna hand you the position of Global power. And you don't get there by getting into a pissing contest with China. And China accepts just EXACTLY how big of a elephant India is, even if some Indian's don't. Why do you think China want to cut India down to size?

[Thomas Kolarek]

Don't you see the low level stoop Chinese are getting into by questioning the legitimacy of India's sovereignty. Is it not the sudden arrogance from China towards India. Let say for example, India calls for dialogue without pre-conditions between His Holiness the Dalai Lama and Beijing, what you think China would respond ? The arrogance will come out again much openly.

There is no emotions out here being vented just the facts of arrogance from Chinese are being pointed here. We will clinch the global power status when ever we could but with this arrogance, Chinese can only do wet dreams of attaining global power status.

[ParGha]

Tony,

FWIW I agree with you that India should take a cold hard look at China's and its own exact aims and capabilities, and plan rationally and methodically to make the best of an otherwise bad situation. Unfortunately objectively analyzing the collected intelligence and planning methodically are two of India's weakest capabilities. But India also has its own strengths to play on.

The pathway that you laid out follows the Chinese path exactly, which has two problems. One is that India will always be behind China in this path, which irks though rationally I see no reason why India should be ahead without putting in the effort and making the sacrifices. Second is that India will be playing exactly to China's natural strengths, you can also be sure that the Chinese would have left behind certain "mine fields" in their paths.

India has to figure out its own path to sustainable economic development. In this effort the Japanese offer some important lessons and inspiration. There is a difference between externally-imposed deprivation and self-imposed discipline, the two should not be confused in pursuit of prosperity. From this too will come military and civic discipline. It is at least as important, if not more important than military hardware and infrastructure.

You think China has entangled America? You do not understand how Americans think and act. It is not tasteful to describe it on a public forum, but suffice to say Indians in power understand the situation and they are not too worried about it. Also it is not such a great strategy as it may appear, from an external security PoV (it does bring internal growth and stability for a while).

Making Pakistan irrelevant is easier said than done.

[ParGha]

With out a safe Security cover, Economic Development is just not feasible.

I would say India today is safe from conventional military attacks. India's biggest problem is not a conventional chinese military attack...

Do consider the case of the Chinese moving in a couple of hundred conventional missile batteries from Straits of Taiwan to Tibet, simultaneously both China and Pak start pumping in millions of cheap Chinese small arms to fuel what you call India's biggest problem - internal insurgencies. That is the current nightmare numero uno. Your problem is not really that big, if handled correctly and efficiently by the political class. It CAN and WILL be magnified enormously by hostile parties if care is not taken.

[Suresh S]

indranil agree with a lot of what you say. But psus have not delivered commensurate with the time and investment they have had since independance. India should almost completely revert to private industry in defense manufacturing as soon as possible. In the interim private and public defense industry have to exist side by side

[Varoon Shekhar]

http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/129776/the ... china.html

Pretty good discussion on the alleged super power race between China and India. Even Rajdeep Sardesai is sympathetic to India. A couple of people make the point that this discussion would not even be permitted in China, in the way it is conducted.

[TonyMontana]

We will clinch the global power status when ever we could but with this arrogance, Chinese can only do wet dreams of attaining global power status.

I didn't know humbleness was a prerequisite for global powerdom. Someone must forgot to tell the Americans.

The pathway that you laid out follows the Chinese path exactly, which has two problems. One is that India will always be behind China in this path, which irks though rationally I see no reason why India should be ahead without putting in the effort and making the sacrifices. Second is that India will be playing exactly to China's natural strengths, you can also be sure that the Chinese would have left behind certain "mine fields" in their paths.

Of cause. Which is why I say India must figure out how to grow economically on her own. But my main point remains. Economic growth should be the number one priority. Not getting involved in some pissing contest with China.

You think China has entangled America? You do not understand how Americans think and act. It is not tasteful to describe it on a public forum, but suffice to say Indians in power understand the situation and they are not too worried about it. Also it is not such a great strategy as it may appear, from an external security PoV (it does bring internal growth and stability for a while).

Of cause not. Not fully. What I mean is the "entanglement" of America has given China leverage on certain things without declearing open hostilities with America. What do they say? Keep your enermies closer.

Making Pakistan irrelevant is easier said than done.

Touche!

Do consider the case of the Chinese moving in a couple of hundred conventional missile batteries from Straits of Taiwan to Tibet, simultaneously both China and Pak start pumping in millions of cheap Chinese small arms to fuel what you call India's biggest problem - internal insurgencies. That is the current nightmare numero uno.

Since we're making things up, what if China developes a 100% effective missile shield that runs on Thorium and then made a pact with the Chaos Gods?

[Manishw]

1) Economic growth. Everything else is secondary. There's a saying in China. Economic depravation is the greatest human rights abuse. How do you acheve this is up to you. Indians knows India better than anyone else.

Tony Ji sorry to butt in but would humbly like to disagree both go together military and economic growth but if somebody held a gun to my head then I would say military first then economy.The last century of our nation bears ample testimony to this.

2) Once that is achieved. Then everything becomes easier. Military hardware, infrastructure will follow naturally. You can worry about equality and liberal ideals when everyone is above the povety line.

It would not be achieved if history is any guide.China made its first ICBM before starting economic reform's.

4)Build your strength at the border. But don't go too overboard. India is quite capable of defending conventionally.

What about attacking and taking the fight into enemy's territory/heartland.Nobody won a war by being defensive.Nation's expand or contract but don't stay stagnant.It is against the law of nature. What about Nuclear weapon's?

[Thomas Kolarek]

Pissing contest was started by China and they had to get the fvck out of it. They are trying to become a game changer.
With POK, they had opened a pandora box. China’s annexation of Tibet, repression of the Uighurs in Xingjian, Baluchistan are all going to come out open. They want to fight a war without firing a shot (Cold war) and we are ready for the long haul.

[TonyMontana]

Tony Ji sorry to butt in but would humbly like to disagree both go together military and economic growth but if somebody held a gun to my head then I would say military first then economy.The last century of our nation bears ample testimony to this.

Am I overestimating Indian abilities? From my point of view, India is already secure from direct external threats. The way I see it, the only ones that can destroy India today are Indians.

It would not be achieved if history is any guide.China made its first ICBM before starting economic reform's.

India already have Nukes. And China is not that far away. What does India need ICBMs for?

What about attacking and taking the fight into enemy's territory/heartland.Nobody won a war by being defensive.Nation's expand or contract but don't stay stagnant.It is against the law of nature.

There're your pride talking. I bet deep down you want to teach the Chinese a lesson right? You can do that AFTER India is a super power. It shouldn't be your goal.

What about Nuclear weapon's?

What about them?

[yantra]

The administration of President Barack Obama has called for a substantive dialogue without pre-conditions between His Holiness the Dalai Lama and Beijing on the Tibetan issue and called upon the Government of Nepal to honour its past commitment to allow the Tibetans the freedom of travel to India through Nepal.


2. Its annual report on Tibet submitted to the Congress on August 19 says inter alia: “Encouraging substantive dialogue between Beijing and the Dalai Lana is an important foreign policy objective of the United States. We continue to encourage representatives of the PRC and the Dalai Lama to hold direct and substantive discussions aimed at the resolution of difference, without precondition..... The US government believes that the Dalai Lama can be a constructive partner for China as it deals with the difficult challenge of continuing tensions in Tibetan areas. His views are widely reflected within Tibetan society, and he commands the respect of the vast majority of Tibetans. His consistent advocacy on non-violence is an important principle for making progress toward a lasting solution....China's engagement with the Dalai Lama or his representatives to resolve problems facing Tibetans is in the interests of both the Chinese government and the Tibetan people. Failure to address these problems will lead to greater tensions inside China and will be an impediment to China's social and economic development.

From B.Raman's Analysis pages (More here - http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/).

Did someone say US is not in this game? US is certainly making some decisive moves here..

The report should have been submitted in March last, but the Obama Administration delayed its submission, possibly because of its expectation that China would support strong action against North Korea for sinking a South Korean naval ship in March. The Obama Administration's unhappiness with Beijing's reluctance to support action against North Korea was earlier reflected in its decision to come out openly against the Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and is now manifested in its decision to submit its delayed report on Tibet to the Congress and to use strong language in the report.

[Varoon Shekhar]

Of course, Montana would advise his own government, China, to do the exact same things he's advising India, if China were facing the same incidents that India is. Right?

[TonyMontana]

Of course, Montana would advise his own government, China, to do the exact same things he's advising India, if China were facing the same incidents that India is. Right?

China ceded terriory to Russia. The CCP also hushed up/played down incidents of entire Chinese patrols that were ambushed and wiped out by Russian forces as revenge for Chinese injuring of Russian personale in that border dispute. Sometimes pride takes a back seat to national interests.

[Manishw]

Am I overestimating Indian abilities? From my point of view, India is already secure from direct external threats. The way I see it, the only ones that can destroy India today are Indians.

Which Indian's do you specifically have in mind? Fifth columnists? or somebody else? Pls be more specific.

India already have Nukes. And China is not that far away. What does India need ICBM's for?

Well I was posting from the Chinese point of view they built their I.C.B.M's according to their threat perception's.We should also be taking our threat perceptions seriously and making weapon's accordingly.

There're your pride talking. I bet deep down you want to teach the Chinese a lesson right? You can do that AFTER India is a super power. It shouldn't be your goal.

Can we go easy on the psychoanalysis a bit.Ideas change.No need to be personnel and offensive.
Anyway my 2 cents says that we will not be a superpower(heck we might have to downsize) until we have the capacity to take the fight into enemy territory as well as protect the interests of smaller countries which are in danger of falling into Chinese orbit.

What about them?

Well I wanted to hear your comment's on India and china's Nuclear capabilities.My thoughts very briefly Russia is/will not be a match for china conventionally but china won't dare touch them.why? Nukes.In the online poll recently the Chinese are talking of only limited war. Why? because nukes would get involved? Nukes are a great balancer,
though would like your opinion about it.