People's Republic of China Nov 22, 2009

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 04:55

RajeshA wrote: If China attacks India, be it a border war or something bigger, then China can forget to become any superpower. India would turn into a highly militaristic country, which she is not at all right now.

Agreed. 100%.

RajeshA wrote: It will be a 1000 year enmity, and China's Southern and Western borders would become extremely vulnerable. With USA putting pressure on PRC in the Pacific, India putting pressure on China in the South, it will become a very difficult time for PRC.

Totally Agreed.

RajeshA wrote: All diplomatic space that PRC enjoys right now in the international arena, will disappear for a long long time.

Agreed. China will once again become a pariah.

RajeshA wrote: The question is not what India would do if China attacks, but rather what India would become if China attacks!

I sense from the postings of some members that they want China to attack India. That way it will unite India like never before. It will also drag down China's economic growth and even the playing field.

Now ask yourselves this. If you can see this, and I can see this. Why can't the CCP see this? To think the CCP are dumb is a mistake. They are some of the cunningest and shrewed people in China. This was my point the whole time. Why would China attack India? What does China have to gain from it? What would it cost China. If you can answer these questions honestly, you will see where China stands. If India got baited into a massive arms build up, you are playing into the Chinese's hands.

1) India will never attack China.
2) Therefore any excessive offensive capabilities will be wasted.
3) This future India-China war will begin at China's chosing.
4) So why get into a arms race and have the enermy dictate when and where you're going to use those weapons?

But this is a moot point, because of the bolded part above.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 01 Sep 2010 05:05

Ex-Dow Scientist Charged With Espionage, U.S. Says

The indictment against Kexue Huang, also known as John, was announced in an e-mailed statement today by Assistant U.S. Attorney General Lanny Breuer and U.S. Attorney Timothy Morrison of Indianapolis. Huang made his initial court appearance today in Indianapolis, the prosecutors said.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 01 Sep 2010 05:06

Whatever internet warriors may want neither the Indian nor Chinese governments are actually going to cross the line in to war any time soon. Both ruling parties are focused on growth first, although the CMC in Beijing makes time to throw its weight around to keep the PLA happy.

Instead what we will have are displays of strength, alliances and counter-alliances, bluffs, etc - in short all the ways that major powers compete with each other short of destructive conflict.

Cold War isn't the way to describe it really - that's closer to the Indo-Pakistan situation. This is more like the Great Game than anything else.

China's export-driven hunger for raw materials and energy, its paranoid fears of encirclement, and its fear of its own religious minorities are what drive it so hard.

I think it is worth focussing on where the PRC will be in 10 or 20 years. Will it still be export-manufacturing dependent? Will China become a technology powerhouse? What will be the effects of demographic changes, especially the greying of China and the gender imbalance? How will social changes affect the nature of Party rule? How will the growth of religiosity (both Buddhist and Christian) change China, and its relationships with both minorities and the outside world? How will China pursue energy and food security?

These are the important questions that will determine the kind of stances China will take, as well as the rest of the world's response.

I will say that the one thing that has impressed me about the CPC is that thanks to Deng it is the only undemocratic regime in the world that regularly and peacefully changes leadership today. Most authoritarian systems seem to alternate between doddering presidents-for-life and periods of unstable and vicious musical chairs, producing either stagnation or chaos. On the other hand even many Chinese Triads and Secret Societies had leadership of fixed terms followed by elections (see Johnnie To's entertaining Hong Kong gangster films Election and Election 2), so who says democracy is not suitable for China? How things go with China in the next two decades will depend on just how responsible, how realistic, and how agile the CPC will be from the top down.

I don't think its inevitable at all that the CPC will 'do the right thing' for its people. Mexico's PRI held power for 70 years (as long as the CPSU!) ad managed a regular, peaceful internal rotation of power that saw Mexico grow, but highly unevenly. Mexico remains an economy dominated by assembly for foreign companies, natural resource extraction, and agriculture. Its got some of the weathiest people in the world, but with horribly corrupt and dysfunctional local governments, and people literally dying to get out. Will China become a giant Mexico? I'd say the odds are no better than 50-50.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 01 Sep 2010 05:15

China doesn't have to cross the line into war, just as it didn't cross the line in order to remove the monarchy in Nepal, just as it didn't cross the line in order to assist the Naxalites in India, just as it didn't cross the line to build up the Khmer Rouge to attack rival Vietnam.

The last time China crossed any line was the Yalu River to push back MacArthur's troops. But since then, North Korea has magically become a nuclear and missile power - all without China having to cross any lines. Pakistan has also become a nuclear and missile power, in the same magical way, without China having to cross any lines. China no longer has to cross any line to attack anyone, because they have learned to shift the very lines themselves.

paramu · Post by **paramu** » 01 Sep 2010 05:24

TonyMontana wrote:Now ask yourselves this. If you can see this, and I can see this. Why can't the CCP see this? To think the CCP are dumb is a mistake. They are some of the cunningest and shrewed people in China. This was my point the whole time. Why would China attack India? What does China have to gain from it? What would it cost China. If you can answer these questions honestly, you will see where China stands.

There are several public indications that PRC realizes that a rising India is not in PRC's interests. With recent economic situations and demographic forcast, China is coming to a stage where its growth will taper out whereas India's is only about to take off. This puts a serious question into CPC leaders' mind. Either contain India now, or lose the long race to a turtle. India has not become powerful yet, and there is a window of opportunity to contain India in the next five years. If India is allowed to grow beyond that period, PRC has to forget let alone dominating the world, even in Asia they will be just another major country.

On top of it, war is good tactic to divert attention of its citizens from internal issues.

PRC autocrats can judge that India is still weak and it might be possible to defeat India militarily without escalating to a full scale war.

BTW, I don't think there will be enmity between India and China for next 1000 years, in the event of war. Indians are capable of understanding that it is not the ordinary Chinese who were responsible for the war but the selfish CPC dictators.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 05:49

paramu wrote: There are several public indications that PRC realizes that a rising India is not in PRC's interests. With recent economic situations and demographic forcast, China is coming to a stage where its growth will taper out whereas India's is only about to take off. This puts a serious question into CPC leaders' mind. Either contain India now, or lose the long race to a turtle. India has not become powerful yet, and there is a window of opportunity to contain India in the next five years. If India is allowed to grow beyond that period, PRC has to forget let alone dominating the world, even in Asia they will be just another major country.

Thus the containment. But out right war will be counter to CCP's aims.

paramu wrote: On top of it, war is good tactic to divert attention of its citizens from internal issues.

Great that you brought this up. I see this argument over and over again on BRF. In my opinion this interpretation is incorrect.

paramu wrote: PRC autocrats can judge that India is still weak and it might be possible to defeat India militarily without escalating to a full scale war.

If things are so bad internally in China that only a war can divert attention, the limited war with India will not be sufficient. It will be seen by the already fed up Chinese population as a stupid costly war initiated by the CCP. It will simply be too far away from China proper for the Chinese to really care. Taiwan and Japan on the other hand is a more likely option for the CCP.

paramu wrote: BTW, I don't think there will be enmity between India and China for next 1000 years, in the event of war. Indians are capable of understanding that it is not the ordinary Chinese who were responsible for the war but the selfish CPC dictators.

My point exactly. The civilisational animosity is simply not there. The Chinese just don't hate the Indians that much. Japan. Korea and Taiwan is another story.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Sep 2010 05:52

TonyMontana: What's the beef between China and Korea ?

paramu · Post by **paramu** » 01 Sep 2010 06:13

TonyMontana wrote:If things are so bad internally in China that only a war can divert attention, the limited war with India will not be sufficient. It will be seen by the already fed up Chinese population as a stupid costly war initiated by the CCP. It will simply be too far away from China proper for the Chinese to really care. Taiwan and Japan on the other hand is a more likely option for the CCP.

The problem Chinese population has is that they don't have access to alternate views. Their media is censured and will contain only CCP propaganda, especialy in the event of war. Through the media CCP can easily convince the population that India is turning aggessive and is trying to snatch away Tibet. This has to be defended at any cost and must teach India a lesson. When exclusive data is presented to support this argument, public will eventually consume that and stay fully behind the government.

This will certainly have few advantages:
- Public will now fully be behind the government.
- Contain India, reduce its growth and create a lost decade and if possible annex some strategically important territories.
- Create a psychological scar on Indian mind so that it doesn't become a confident society
- A defeat of India will rejuvenate Pakis who will gladly play remaining dirty game.
- Rest of the world will see China as the real super power of the 21st century.

BTW, full scale war with India is very risky since both countries have nuclear arms.

However, there is no reason to assume China won't start a limited war with India.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Sep 2010 06:28

TonyMontana wrote: Now ask yourselves this. If you can see this, and I can see this. Why can't the CCP see this? To think the CCP are dumb is a mistake. They are some of the cunningest and shrewed people in China. This was my point the whole time. Why would China attack India? What does China have to gain from it? What would it cost China. If you can answer these questions honestly, you will see where China stands. If India got baited into a massive arms build up, you are playing into the Chinese's hands.

1) India will never attack China.
2) Therefore any excessive offensive capabilities will be wasted.
3) This future India-China war will begin at China's chosing.
4) So why get into a arms race and have the enermy dictate when and where you're going to use those weapons?

But this is a moot point, because of the bolded part above.

Could be "Preaching to the choir"....

War with India < PRC economic progress < PRC superpowerdom < CPC hold on PRC

So PRC initiating a war with India is very likely in the next decade as there is a fair chance (3/4) of materializing the other risk events. India cannot limit itself to defensive capabilities when facing an enemy like PRC. Any Indo-PRC war would mean multiple theaters of action; Thus the need for both defensive and offensive capabilities for India.

India's military-industrial complex will have to be in proportion to this great nation's history, influence area, economy, and geopolitical ambitions. It mustn't be driven by the enemy capabilities in a given space/time.

Chanakya offers two strategies -
1. Make sure that none of your enemies have a greater military capability than you (this doesn't assure you that your capability is commensurate to your needs, so not a effective strategy).

2. Make sure that your capabilities are progressively strong meeting your changing needs. This will help ensure that you KNOW what your geopolitical needs are and capabilities are.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 06:29

Suraj wrote:TonyMontana: What's the beef between China and Korea ?

Maybe not Korea. Just saying that India is not really on that list.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 06:56

paramu wrote:
The problem Chinese population has is that they don't have access to alternate views. Their media is censured and will contain only CCP propaganda, especialy in the event of war. Through the media CCP can easily convince the population that India is turning aggessive and is trying to snatch away Tibet. This has to be defended at any cost and must teach India a lesson. When exclusive data is presented to support this argument, public will eventually consume that and stay fully behind the government.

I think you don't give the average chinese enough credit. One of the good things about living in China, instead of say america, is that the propaganda are OBVIOUS. When I was in China it took me all of 20 seconds to proxy my way around the firewall. Chinese don't read english news is more due to the language barrier. They have no interest in it. The average Chinese college student knows a lot more than you think.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 07:02

RamaY wrote:Could be "Preaching to the choir"....

War with India < PRC economic progress < PRC superpowerdom < CPC hold on PRC

War with India < ... ... ... < Unified Korea < Resurgent Japan < American persense in East Asia < South China Sea < Unification with Taiwan <PRC economic progress < PRC superpowerdom < CPC hold on PRC

I know everyone like to think they are important. But the truth is India really isn't on top of China's to do list. And I think it's good for India to keep it that way a while longer.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Sep 2010 07:26

That is exactly what I said.

There is a fair chance that CPC would create a border skirmish situation with India to divert some of its other problems.

It is a different matter if it could repeat a 1962.

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 01 Sep 2010 07:27

That article by KP Nayar was long, boring and useless. It is sad that someone who is a professional journalist comes up with a piece of trash like that. He needs to know that China and US are not the only ones with interests. We too have interest and this sometimes requires that we work with US. It is absolutely necessary to form a global alliance of like minded countries against China a country which does not believe in live and let live.

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 01 Sep 2010 07:41

TonyMontana wrote: I know everyone like to think they are important. But the truth is India really isn't on top of China's to do list. And I think it's good for India to keep it that way a while longer.

We are doing exactly that. We are keeping our unimportant self busy preparing to deal with your important persona.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 01 Sep 2010 08:29

TonyMontana wrote:One of the good things about living in China, instead of say america, is that the propaganda are OBVIOUS. When I was in China it took me all of 20 seconds to proxy my way around the firewall. Chinese don't read english news is more due to the language barrier. They have no interest in it. The average Chinese college student knows a lot more than you think.

Ha ha... This is plain BS. Why is CCP so paranoid about Google and censor internet?

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 08:57

shyam wrote: Ha ha... This is plain BS. Why is CCP so paranoid about Google and censor internet?

It's always nice to have your life experiences called BS. I'm actually going back there for my Grandfather's 80th. Maybe I'll post some Falungong news when I'm in China on BRF just to prove a point. They did censor the internet for the casual users(which is most people). Just like Unis tries to censor ***** on their networks. But uni students will find a way. It's all there if you know where to look.

All I'm saying is if you think China is like North Korea, where everyone only believes what the government tell them. You're wrong.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 01 Sep 2010 09:08

Seems like China cannot put issues on back burner. In the last one year:

1. China has protested vociferously to Indian PM's visit to Arunachal Pradesh
2. China has protested against Indian PM meeting Dalai Lama
3. China has protested against ADB giving loans to India for projects in Arunachal Pradesh
4. China has siezed Indian maps from the world expo in Shanghai
5. China has refused visa to Indian army general in charge of J&K
6. China has been issuing stapled visas to residents of J&K stating that it doesn't recognize Indian control over it.
7. China has signed agreements to build two nuclear reactors in China against NSG rules
8. China is funding projects in pakistan occupied Kashmir (look at double standards wrt #3 above)

India has in all instances tried to put a brave face, and everytime any of chinese shennigans become public, has reiterated china's control over Tibet.

China is holding on Tibet against the wishes of its residents, and also claims Taiwan and Arunachal Pradesh, those its residents have overwhelmingly rejected Chinese rule.

Maybe China should forget its claims over Tibet, Taiwan, Arunachal Pradesh as being rejected by the people, and concentrate on its own citizens

I think India needs to start doing some additional things to pay back China in same coin:

1. Allow Taiwan to open consulates in India
2. Issue stapled visas to Chinese residents in Tibet
3. Stop BSNL from purchasing Chinese telecom products
4. Stop NTPC from purchasing Chinese power equipment
5. Recognize Dalai lama's govt-in-exile as the legitimate ruler of Tibet.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 01 Sep 2010 09:09

Well if they let the government do whether they approve of it or not, then they are still responsible for the government's action. So whether they believe what the government tells them or not is irrelevant to the rest of the world, no ?

If an articulate non-resident Chinese has such a world view that is so close to what the CCP thinks, then why should we look charitably at the populace living in China as just victims of the oppression ?

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 01 Sep 2010 09:18

7. China has signed agreements to build two nuclear reactors in China against NSG rules
8. China is funding projects in pakistan occupied Kashmir (look at double standards wrt #3 above)

Plus Pak is getting all military related items from China in addition to US.

How Pak finance these purchases from *China*...any idea...all goes under long term loan with no interest ?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Sep 2010 09:49

putnanja wrote:1. China has protested vociferously to Indian PM's visit to Arunachal Pradesh
2. China has protested against Indian PM meeting Dalai Lama
3. China has protested against ADB giving loans to India for projects in Arunachal Pradesh
4. China has siezed Indian maps from the world expo in Shanghai
5. China has refused visa to Indian army general in charge of J&K
6. China has been issuing stapled visas to residents of J&K stating that it doesn't recognize Indian control over it.
7. China has signed agreements to build two nuclear reactors in China against NSG rules
8. China is funding projects in pakistan occupied Kashmir (look at double standards wrt #3 above)

I don't understand why folks are so caught up on all this. All these (and more) just indicate the obvious - they consider it state policy to maintain a slightly destabilizing posture w.r.t. us. The goal is to continually provoke and taunt mildly, get a reaction, feign ignorance/shock if the reaction is more than expected, try to backpedal and soothe, or alternately, retort.

The problem I see with all this is - we react. Take a moment to think what that implies. The reactive posture puts us at a continuous disadvantage. As India grows, this is what we'll face - cold, calculated efforts to test our resolve and boundaries. There'll be no bonhomie and coming out events, with a seat with our name kept ready, until our arrival.

While I think calibrated shows of indignation have a definite place, a continuous reactive fingerpointing posture prevents us from grasping the way they work, and formulating a similarly clinical response .

Krishna_V · Post by **Krishna_V** » 01 Sep 2010 09:55

Tony,

It is not india's intent to fight china. We do not want to be in china's list either..you need to understand that its china who choose india as its enemy..otherwise how do you explain the following

1. China has protested vociferously to Indian PM's visit to Arunachal Pradesh
2. China has protested against Indian PM meeting Dalai Lama
3. China has protested against ADB giving loans to India for projects in Arunachal Pradesh
4. China has siezed Indian maps from the world expo in Shanghai
5. China has refused visa to Indian army general in charge of J&K
6. China has been issuing stapled visas to residents of J&K stating that it doesn't recognize Indian control over it.
7. China has signed agreements to build two nuclear reactors in China against NSG rules
8. China is funding projects in pakistan occupied Kashmir (look at double standards wrt #3 above)

What if we do the same..how will china react??

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 01 Sep 2010 10:06

Its time India gets out of the no first use policy. And make a statement that its changing its nuclear posture based on current threat levels.

Its not like we are going to aggravate our neighbors to go nuclear.

All the bad guys have nukes. So stop pretending that this is not a nuclear neighborhood;.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 10:07

Suraj wrote: I don't understand why folks are so caught up on all this. All these (and more) just indicate the obvious - they consider it state policy to maintain a slightly destabilizing posture w.r.t. us. The goal is to continually provoke and taunt mildly, get a reaction, feign ignorance/shock if the reaction is more than expected, try to backpedal and soothe, or alternately, retort.

The problem I see with all this is - we react. Take a moment to think what that implies. The reactive posture puts us at a continuous disadvantage. As India grows, this is what we'll face - cold, calculated efforts to test our resolve and boundaries. There'll be no bonhomie and coming out events, with a seat with our name kept ready, until our arrival.

While I think calibrated shows of indignation have a definite place, a continuous reactive fingerpointing posture prevents us from grasping the way they work, and formulating a similarly clinical response .

Couldn't agree more. This was what I'm trying to get at the whole time. There's no super duper secret plan on the Chinese side. There's no yellow horde waiting to come south. The CMC didn't pick up the phone and order each of these incidents. These are local functionaries following policy guidelines.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 10:10

Manny wrote:Its time India gets out of the no first use policy. And make a statement that its changing its nuclear posture based on current threat levels.

Its not like we are going to aggravate our neighbors to go nuclear.

All the bad guys have nukes. So stop pretending that this is not a nuclear neighborhood;.

Tell me this. Under what circumstances do you think India should use nukes first?

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 01 Sep 2010 10:38

TonyMontana wrote:
Manny wrote:Its time India gets out of the no first use policy. And make a statement that its changing its nuclear posture based on current threat levels.

Its not like we are going to aggravate our neighbors to go nuclear.

All the bad guys have nukes. So stop pretending that this is not a nuclear neighborhood;.
Tell me this. Under what circumstances do you think India should use nukes first?

If there is a war with China and if we feel they are going to overwhelm us. We use the nukes. That's the position. Our current maps in India is the line. They cross it, we have the option to use it FIRST.

I own a couple of hand guns. A sub compact Glock 27 .40 S&W caliber semi automatic and a Ruger vaquero 7.5" barrel. 45LC revolver. I also have a Conceal carry license. I have a right to shoot and stop anyone who I feel is a threat to me and my loved ones. Its the greatest equalizer. I luv Texas.

There is no reason to negotiate with China as less than equal. The provision for first use make India the equal to China. Why do you think Pakistan has this posture towards India. They are militarily an equal...strategically. It is legal and valid in the world of nukes.

IF you are not going to use it, lose it.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 01 Sep 2010 11:10

Manny wrote:

If there is a war with China and if we feel they are going to overwhelm us. We use the nukes. That's the position. Our current maps in India is the line. They cross it, we have the option to use it FIRST.

Oh thank god. I see we will never come to that. Good to know now nukes will not be used.

Manny wrote:
I own a couple of hand guns. A sub compact Glock 27 .40 S&W caliber semi automatic and a Luger vaquero 7.5" barrel. 45LC revolver. I also have a Conceal carry license. I have a right to shoot and stop anyone who I feel is a threat to me and my loved ones. Its the greatest equalizer.

Glock 27?

I own a saiga-12. But if I pumped 8 rounds of 00 buck into that guy taking a p!ss on my rose gardens I'm going to jail.

China wouldn't threaten India's exsistance.

Manny wrote:
There is no reason to negotiate with China as less than equal. The provision for first use make India the equal to China. Why do you think Pakistan has this posture towards India. They are militarily an equal...strategically. It is legal and valid in the world of nukes.

Really? I fail to see the logic in that. China don't threaten India's existance. China have no first use.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 01 Sep 2010 11:15

TonyMontana wrote:
Really? I fail to see the logic in that. China don't threaten India's existance. China have no first use.

We currently don't have no first use either but Pakistan wisely do have the first use option. A conventionally weaker nation cannot afford to have a no first use. Thats the equalizer.

China crossing the line (A. Pradesh, LOC that we currently consider our border ) is the clear intent to harm us and we use the nuclear...(It doesn't have to be a threat to our existence). make the message loud and clear. So there are no surprises. At least we need to start the dialogue. A few good editorial on this option would be good.

Pakistan has made it clear their threshold that we cannot cross... we make our threashold clear to China. The problem is, our leadership has been wishywashy and not made our threshold clear., This wishwashyness is more dangerous than anything else.

BTW..do you really own a saiga-12? I would really be impressed if you do.

And don't snicker at my G27. Its for my CCW and .40S&W Jacketed Hollow Point is nothing to be shy about.

Stan_Savljevic · Post by **Stan_Savljevic** » 01 Sep 2010 11:30

China has donated Rs. 53.6 lakh to Rabindra Bharati University (RBU) for setting up a gallery titled “Rabindranath and China” in the Tagore Museum on its Jorasanko campus. According to an agreement inked by Mao Siwei, the Chinese consul-general in the city, and Karuna Sindhu Das, the vice-chancellor of RBU, the gallery will display motifs from Chinese civilisation and of Lord Buddha. It will also liaise between the two countries. A part of the gallery will be opened in 2012.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 01 Sep 2010 11:38

From where does Nuke come into the equation, we are not TSP and we have much more faith in the conventional abilities of our Armed forces to deter any action (no matter how small or large the theatre of ops.). China knows this very well that we have the ability to nuke them if they use it first, the consequnces of breaking NFU policy will in no way balance anything between India and China.

I don't see what is wrong with our current policy which revolves around.

1.) Improving trade and mutual interdependence ( china is our largest trading partner and we are the 11th largest trading partner for China), we will only go up along that ladder in the next decade.

2.) Enhacing military deterrant - In the last 5 years we've seen our Nuke sub come along (with more u/c) , Agni-3 complete testing and Agni-5 due to start testing, army significantly boosting presence along LAC and decreasing mobalization time, heavy air power near LAC, activation of ALG's, Navy rolling out several warships for IOR (including Aircraft carriers), missile squadrons in NE and critical road network development.

3.) Keeping Tibet and Dalai Lama important and not undermining him, he has visited Tamang off late, met high ranking Govt officials and is free to talk to all media as well as foreign dignetaries.

4.) Aligning with the United States to some extent - as we have already established , United states is a big prick for China and ever since the Indo-US nuke deal has come into existence, China has become increasingly brazen wrt to India. This is all the more reason to come closer to US and it's allies in the region i.e. Japan and SoKo as well as singpore and vietnam. China must know that it's actions are creating a ring of hostility around it and only economic growth cannot wash over it.

5.) Keeping up the economic growth at all costs

6.) Losing TSP - this is absolutly vital and the toughest part. As a proxy that china will use increasingly to keep india from gaining political, military, economic and diplomatic clout in the world , Pakistan is most important to them. They expect it to be NoKo Part - II in the future which has no economic value but a strong military, nukes and beligerent attitude which keep US ally SoKo in check. Our foreign policy must force itself past TSP if we are to move forward.

These occasional pin pricks are expected of China but they should not be expected to do any more for reasons which RajeshA ,Tony and Suraj have pointed out in previous posts. we've got to keep pur head about this and not loose our cool. China will do anything and everything to get a reaction from India which it can use to undermine India and depict it as a nation of paranoid leaders who has an inferiority complex wrt China , hence establishing that China is the sole major power in Asia.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 01 Sep 2010 11:48

We simply do not have the conventional superiority or the strategic depth (Tibet) vis a vis China. So in a conventional war, its a high probability that we are at a severe disadvantage. So to not use the option of first use is almost surrendering to China. The no first use favors China and puts India at a severe disadvantage.

Talking about changing our nuclear First Use posture (Editorials) alone may prevent China from provoking us further. IT would push the US to TALK to china. It would make EU to Talk to China. It would male Russia to talk to China.

This is a very sensible and valid option to prevent any conventional war.

If I were Chinese and I know India would not use nukes first, I would just walk in and take over Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir while at it Ill just take 100 yards a day. This is not a threat to India's existence either. Sending our men to Gilgit has not stirred a mouse. Its very encouraging. The Indian people will not go for nukes... They are just not made that way. They have this "high moral" smug self righteousness which really helps us Chinese. Phew! Thank god We don't have that smug baggage. We are a simple minded folks. We just take what we want.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Sep 2010 12:13

Nihat wrote:we've got to keep pur head about this and not loose our cool. China will do anything and everything to get a reaction from India which it can use to undermine India and depict it as a nation of paranoid leaders who has an inferiority complex wrt China , hence establishing that China is the sole major power in Asia.

Indeed. This reactive position is analogous to being a puppet on a string. It is important to cut those strings. That does not mean ignoring their acts. Calibrated indignant responses are useful, as a shot back to let them know it's time to backpedal (and try something else, as they will). Sometimes the Chinese themselves face some trouble dealing with this, such as when the Chinese press and intelligentsia started squawking about 'warmongering Indian press'. Far from it, I thought it was a very nicely calibrated show that took them aback, causing them to have to both soothe us and retain face locally by retorting.

As a reactive posture, the best option is to pursue either a stonewalling position, or a go-postal-and-attack, such as the 'warmongering Indian press episode'. What is a bad option, is an effete 'Why are they doing this ? Chinese bad, evil communists, don't want to be friends' response. Along with this requires a series of proactive measures on our part, conducted with a minimum of emotion, but always making them work to beat down small and medium sized fires.

I think people underestimate just the very presence of His Holiness the Dalai Lama on Indian soil. For 50 years, his presence here has been an affront to them - analogous to the TSPites hosting Dawood (as seen from a CPC perspective). While much more can be done, there's no need to presume we don't hold cards that continuously needle the Chinese. Let their response be the sole barometer of the efficacy of out Tibet policy, or for that matter, any other w.r.t. China. What's working should be allowed to continue without public commentary. What's not should be quietly discarded in favour of other measures.

Re: Sino-Indian war, I find the whole topic meaningless, unless someone can explain what the specific goals of such a war are to the instigator, and what the intended extent of hostilities is. War, after all, is a calibrated military action in pursuit of particular goals.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 01 Sep 2010 12:17

Dalai Lama would be dead in the next 15-25 years. after than. NOTHIG! ZILCH! There goes Dalai. End of story.

BTW what are these "Calibrated indignant responses are useful, as a shot back to let them know it's time to backpedal (and try something else, as they will)."?

Why can't a dialogue about changing our nuclear posture be that caliberated indignant response?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Sep 2010 12:20

Manny wrote:Why can't a dialogue about changing our nuclear posture be that caliberated indignant response?

Never claimed as such. By all means, make an effective case of it.

As for the Dalai Lama, sure he'll be dead someday, but for the half a century plus he's been around, he's been an annoying thorn in their flesh, just as so many actions on their part have been to us.

Just keep in mind, undermining what we've done and exaggerating their actions is not a rational line of thought. It leads to too much emotion and loss of clarity.

Dhiman · Post by **Dhiman** » 01 Sep 2010 12:30

Manny wrote:We simply do not have the conventional superiority or the strategic depth (Tibet) vis a vis China. So in a conventional war, its a high probability that we are at a severe disadvantage. So to not use the option of first use is almost surrendering to China. The no first use favors China and puts India at a severe disadvantage.

All we need to do is to mount a few cannons on A&N islands and pick off every single oil tanker on its way to China from middle-east. That by itself will ruin the Chinese (if not global) economy at least for the duration of the war. The real question is how defensible A&N islands are?

Manny wrote:Dalai Lama would be dead in the next 15-25 years. after than. NOTHIG! ZILCH! There goes Dalai. End of story.

True, unless off course Dalai Lama's future incarnation were to be born in Tawang. In that case, he would be as Tibetian as the current Dalai Lama, yet have the protection of being an Indian citizen.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 Sep 2010 12:34

Manny_> for all the things you talk to come through, we need enough nukes and deliverables ready which can take out the Chinese Eastern Sea board, unless we have say 500 nukes in Agni- III's/V's ready to Launch( in addition to enough Nukes and delivery systems to take out 99% of the Paki population 1/2 and hour) , CHina, rest of the world will not be worried, they dont cafre if we nuke the Tibet Plateau.

Perhaps the reason why the CHinese are acting big is they feel in the 5 years or so the cost of them bullying us will go up significantly.

It may be we are trying to buy time until w ehave the requisite capabilities ( i meant capbility not parity)

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 01 Sep 2010 12:36

Manny wrote:Dalai Lama would be dead in the next 15-25 years. after than. NOTHIG! ZILCH! There goes Dalai. End of story.

BTW what are these "Calibrated indignant responses are useful, as a shot back to let them know it's time to backpedal (and try something else, as they will)."?

Why can't a dialogue about changing our nuclear posture be that caliberated indignant response?

Dalai Lama can very well choose his own succesor , the one that Beijing picks will not be recognized by the vast majority of Tibetans. It'll be even better if the successor to the 14th Lama is a woman.

Dhiman · Post by **Dhiman** » 01 Sep 2010 12:47

Suraj wrote:
Nihat wrote:we've got to keep pur head about this and not loose our cool. China will do anything and everything to get a reaction from India which it can use to undermine India and depict it as a nation of paranoid leaders who has an inferiority complex wrt China , hence establishing that China is the sole major power in Asia.
Indeed. This reactive position is analogous to being a puppet on a string. It is important to cut those strings. That does not mean ignoring their acts. Calibrated indignant responses are useful, as a shot back to let them know it's time to backpedal (and try something else, as they will). Sometimes the Chinese themselves face some trouble dealing with this, such as when the Chinese press and intelligentsia started squawking about 'warmongering Indian press'. Far from it, I thought it was a very nicely calibrated show that took them aback, causing them to have to both soothe us and retain face locally by retorting.

Sir,

I am not sure if I completely understand, but IMHO, the reactive posture is because 1) we (perhaps irrationally) perceive ourselves to be weak against the Chinese while the Chinese (perhaps irrationally) perceive themselves to be strong against the Indians and 2) the usual cacophony of the democratic system against the mind-numbing organization of the Communist system.

So far from what I can see, the public response has been reactionary as it should be under a democratic system; while the, government reaction has by-and-large always been measured (sometimes too measured and not going far enough).

In either case, if the Chinese and Indian relationship has to go somewhere positive, the Chinese will have to understand us as well as we attempt to understand the Chinese.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Sep 2010 13:49

To be honest, I find all this poking and provoking from China, and our reactiveness very useful. Far more detrimental would be a China lulling us into thinking everything is hunky-dory and there is no need to consider China our enemy!

This way we keep on building our capabilities and capacities!

derkonig · Post by **derkonig** » 01 Sep 2010 14:08

RajeshA wrote:This way we keep on building our capabilities and capacities!

That is where the problem is, we are not building up any capability of note. Our nuke programme remains under threat from MMS's pet nuke deal (read CRE). Mil acquisitions are deferred again & again, we are short on aircraft, ships, submarines, you name it. While the suggestion earlier in this thread for a thermonuke test is good, it is unlikely that a sekoolaar UPA will ever have the backbone to even think about such an act, lest its masters take offense.
So while PRC continues its sabre rattling, we are definitely doing *nothing* to improve our position.