Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Sep 03, 2010

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Sep 2010 12:39

Pratyush wrote:Dilbu,

Just makes me want to wish for the financial bankrupcy of the 3.5. That is the only way this paying of Jazia to TSP will end.

That is the point my friend. As Shiv saar has said before " Amirkhan is the only super power and TSP is its munna".

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Sep 2010 12:47

Pak seeks people's coop to enforce blackout of Indian channels

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 511417.cms

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 07 Sep 2010 12:51

Question to gurus: If Papistan breaks, how the debt (WB, IMF, ADB and 3.5 and 0.5 friends (IMO the ext 0.5 friend is WKKs of India, without them Pakis' nuisance value becomes zero)) will be payed, is it based on people ratio or some other criteria. IMO, Pakjab and and Sindh will inherit most of the debt.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Sep 2010 13:05

kmkraoind wrote:Question to gurus: If Papistan breaks, how the debt (WB, IMF, ADB and 3.5 and 0.5 friends (IMO the ext 0.5 friend is WKKs of India, without them Pakis' nuisance value becomes zero)) will be payed, is it based on people ratio or some other criteria. IMO, Pakjab and and Sindh will inherit most of the debt.

Do you seriously think the money will ever be repaid? The payment date will get postponed as TSP will keep on creating real and artificial crisis to keep the money flowing. There is no real economy left in the country. So the only source of income would be drugs, jiziya from west, spot fixing, aid from fliends of TSP, civil and military aid, GUBO charges etc. Most of these need not be repaid. Even if required TSP will not repay it anyway.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 07 Sep 2010 13:06

kmkraoind wrote:Question to gurus: If Papistan breaks, how the debt (WB, IMF, ADB and 3.5 and 0.5 friends (IMO the ext 0.5 friend is WKKs of India, without them Pakis' nuisance value becomes zero)) will be payed, is it based on people ratio or some other criteria. IMO, Pakjab and and Sindh will inherit most of the debt.

Historically the successor state will inherit the debts or some formal agreement will be reached among the balkanized states for debt inheritance.
Anyway no one expects Pakistan to repay those debts, so for all practical purposes they are written off.
The FX from these loans are deployed presently as (meager) FX reserves in USA. They will be appropriated.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 07 Sep 2010 13:17

While Karachi slowly burns

Good article...signs that the 3.5 are having second thoughts on their munna?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2010 13:24

kmkraoind wrote:Question to gurus: If Papistan breaks, how the debt (WB, IMF, ADB and 3.5 and 0.5 friends (IMO the ext 0.5 friend is WKKs of India, without them Pakis' nuisance value becomes zero)) will be payed, is it based on people ratio or some other criteria. IMO, Pakjab and and Sindh will inherit most of the debt.

It will be the sucessor state of Pakistan that will bear the burden of paying off the debt obligations. If they were serious about paying off the debt.

But TSP as it exists is begging for debt write off along with more aid even today. So dont think they will be interested in paying off the " Odius debt". post the breakup of TSP.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Sep 2010 13:32

Jundullah, the new Al Qaeda

Investigations by Daily Times have revealed serious concerns, as according to one official, the peace in Karachi is under “imminent threat” from the newly re-organised Jundallah {Let He who has been so cruel to Pakistan at least grant this wish to purify the land}, which has been working in the city since 2003.

An intelligence official who had been on a hunt went as far as to claim, “Jundullah is the new al Qaeda in Pakistan.”

Daily Times can confirm, while talking to various sources including militant commanders, that the attacks in Lahore, which killed 35 people and injured at least 250, was not just a case of sectarian violence, but was planned and executed by sub-contractors of al Qaeda to spread the insurgency to urban areas of Pakistan where, according to one official, “the new Jundullah and old LeJ were used”.

Previously, Daily Times was the first publication to report the new al Qaeda and TTP strategy to open new fronts inside urban areas of Pakistan to bring the war to “A areas of Pakistan” and divide the army’s effort to curtail these elements in FATA.

A top intelligence chief explained, “So dangerous is Jundullah that they targeted two intelligence bureau officials who solved the Nishtar Park bombing.”

Daily Times can also reveal that the recent attack on Shia mourners in Karachi was also the work of Jundullah, who deliberately targeted the mourners at a spot where most of the shops were owned by Pashtuns, but due to good coordination between the administration, Rangers and local Shia leaders “another Bori Bazar fiasco was averted”.

A Western diplomat concluded, “The LeJ is basically Jundullah who had not only formed ideological links with al Qaeda but is protecting al Qaeda in urban areas.”

I would have preferred if the above DT report used the correct spelling, JAndullah rather than JUndullah. The former is a Karachi-based organization (hence the fear of the police officers that Karachi is under imminent threat) and was created by the redoubtable Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM). The latter, Jundullah, is a Sunni-Baloch organization that operates out of Balochistan. Its Amir, Abdulmalik Regi, was executed in Iran in June this year after being caught with the possible help of the Pakistani State. In 2004, Jandullah operatives attempted to assassinate the commander of the Karachi-based V Corps, Lieutenant-General Ahsan Saleem Hayat. While Jandullah's Amir, Ata-ur-Rahman (Alias Umer alias Ibrahim alias Zubair) was arrested for the attempt of Lt.Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hayat and is lodged in Karachi Central Jail, Jandullah is being currently run by Al Qaeda commander Hamza Jofy alias Haji Mumtaz, an Arab militant, who is operating it from Miran Shah. Jandullah's Deputy Amir, Masoob Aroochi, a nephew of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was also arrested. His
whereabouts are not known. Possibly extradited to the US. Jandullah attracts JI activists.
Commits bank robberies, especially in Karachi and the Sind, to generate funds.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Sep 2010 13:34

Arjun wrote:While Karachi slowly burns

Good article...signs that the 3.5 are having second thoughts on their munna?

Some portion worth quoting here.

It is a typically American conceit to believe that every problem has a solution. Accordingly there are still those in our foreign policy circles who believe that with the right aid and incentives, we can “fix” Pakistan. Indeed, there would be nothing better for U.S. interests than a stable and prosperous Pakistan. But this is a pipe dream. We have sunk billions of dollars in foreign aid into the country with no results. The status quo is miserable, and the trend lines are even worse. Pakistan is broken, and realistically there is nothing else for us to do but grimly watch as it unravels bit by bit along its frayed edges.

The time has come to relieve ourselves of our dependency on Pakistan and begin to engage more deeply with other nations, particularly India. Many Afghans are already privately hoping for such a re-alignment — having suffered under Pakistan-backed Taliban rule, they are distrustful of their neighbor and would like to see the U.S. bring in a different regional player. Afghanistan’s half-million Baloch would specifically prefer India, given its long time support for Baloch independence movements in Pakistan’s southwest.

Nonetheless, the advantages of strategic re-alignment outweigh the disadvantages. The U.S. needs an ally in Central Asia who is committed to and capable of combating international terrorism and bringing stability to the region. As much as it could be, Pakistan is not this ally. We are not faced with a choice between two viable alternatives — instead, our choices are either to continue to indulge in illusions of a future, stable Pakistan, or confront the painful reality: Karachi is burning, and unless the U.S. detaches itself, we too will be caught up in the flames.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2010 13:36

Arjun wrote:While Karachi slowly burns

Good article...signs that the 3.5 are having second thoughts on their munna?

Some excerpts from article, but it deserves to be read in full. Real maal is after the first 2 paragraphs.

In the game of geopolitics, Pakistan was dealt a terrible hand. It began its existence situated next to an aggressive and mortal enemy who, both in population as well as gross domestic product, outnumbered it by more than three to one.

In this context, the United States and Pakistan should be natural geopolitical allies. In an unequal confrontation between rival states, the weaker side typically has two options: sue for peace or find a strong ally to counterbalance the disparity. Pakistan’s opportunities for partnership are limited — China, despite its sometimes tense relationship with India, has little to gain in the long term from a partnership with Pakistan. Similarly, Russia has demurred as a partner, with Vladimir Putin going so far as to publicly state Russia’s preference for India over Pakistan. Nearby Muslim states are either unwilling or unable to offer support — Saudi Arabia largely follows the U.S.’s lead on relations with Pakistan, and Iran, too troubled a country to provide meaningful assistance anyway, doesn’t appear ready to add India to its long list of enemies.

Admittedly, the U.S. deserves some of the blame for this turn of events. Our withdrawal from Central Asian affairs following the collapse of the Soviet Union gave Pakistan serious cause to question the reliability of our strategic partnership, and the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China creates the risk that someday the U.S. will decide it needs a hedge against Chinese power (India) more than it needs an ally against Al Qaeda (Pakistan).

The time has come to relieve ourselves of our dependency on Pakistan and begin to engage more deeply with other nations, particularly India. Many Afghans are already privately hoping for such a re-alignment — having suffered under Pakistan-backed Taliban rule, they are distrustful of their neighbor and would like to see the U.S. bring in a different regional player. Afghanistan’s half-million Baloch would specifically prefer India, given its long time support for Baloch independence movements in Pakistan’s southwest.

Will the 3.5 show the wisdome needed to do the needful.

This shift in strategic partnerships will not be without its downsides. In the near term, it would mean greatly lowering our expectations in Afghanistan — no partner, especially India, is going to be able to fight Pakistani Taliban like Pakistan can. In the long term it might mean having to grant concessions to new strategic allies — loosened trade restrictions for India, a more generous “restart” with Russia, less pressure on human rights abuses in China. And if it feels encircled by enemies, a failing Pakistani state will give us many headaches as it muddles along — for example, it could become a little more generous with its nuclear technology, or drop its half-hearted combat operations against the Taliban and let its northwest become an unopposed sanctuary for insurgents.

Nonetheless, the advantages of strategic re-alignment outweigh the disadvantages. The U.S. needs an ally in Central Asia who is committed to and capable of combating international terrorism and bringing stability to the region. As much as it could be, Pakistan is not this ally. We are not faced with a choice between two viable alternatives — instead, our choices are either to continue to indulge in illusions of a future, stable Pakistan, or confront the painful reality: Karachi is burning, and unless the U.S. detaches itself, we too will be caught up in the flames.

This article I feel should go to the primer post on TSP. If Mods agree to my proposal.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Sep 2010 14:10

Arjun wrote:While Karachi slowly burns

Good article...signs that the 3.5 are having second thoughts on their munna?

Definitely a much better article than the usual trash one reads more often.

However, I have three statements in the article I pick up.

It began its existence situated next to an aggressive and mortal enemy who, both in population as well as gross domestic product, outnumbered it by more than three to one.

In an earlier article by Prof. Mead, there was a similar adjective used to describe India. I do not understand how the meekest possible country on Earth could earn this distinction ! On what facts or events, is this judgement based ? I am curious to learn.

Admittedly, the U.S. deserves some of the blame for this turn of events. Our withdrawal from Central Asian affairs following the collapse of the Soviet Union gave Pakistan serious cause to question the reliability of our strategic partnership

That is a sham argument that Pakistan uses. Pakistan itself would have preferred the US to leave the theatre after the Geneva accords because that would then give it unhindered access to setup its 'strategic depth', the newly created doctrine of war against its mortal enemy. The acquisition of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems in the decade during the Afghan war once again raised the testosterone levels in the PA and the 'Establishment'. Added to that was the great discomfiture created to India in the Punjab and the assassination of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Pakistan has no cause for complain against the US because it gave it billions of dollars, top range armaments, trained and funded the ISI and on top of everything allowed it to acquire the nuclear weapons and missiles. Why should an American buy this fig leaf of argument ?

Pakistan has systematically sacrificed its long-term strategic interest — which lies either in peace with India or support from the United States —

Why should it be either or ? Pakistan's long term prosperity and stability can never be achieved without India. The US can only go so far and no farther.

Kanishka · Post by **Kanishka** » 07 Sep 2010 14:31

From the article:

While Karachi slowly burns
Time has done nothing to improve this situation. Civil war, secession, and economic mismanagement on the Pakistani side have left India with an advantage in men and materiel of nearly seven to one. The addition of nuclear weapons to the subcontinent have only raised the stakes of failure.

Advantage? What advantage? Ignoramous writer. Surely the writer does not know that 1 bakistani = 10 indians and bakistani missiles are better and ....

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 07 Sep 2010 14:38

Pratyush wrote:
The time has come to relieve ourselves of our dependency on Pakistan and begin to engage more deeply with other nations, particularly India. Many Afghans are already privately hoping for such a re-alignment — having suffered under Pakistan-backed Taliban rule, they are distrustful of their neighbor and would like to see the U.S. bring in a different regional player. Afghanistan’s half-million Baloch would specifically prefer India, given its long time support for Baloch independence movements in Pakistan’s southwest.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 07 Sep 2010 14:49

In other news, Aunt Angelina Jolie is in Islamabad on her way to visit flood victims and get herself some karma brownie points. So no fatwas against this femme fatale eh? After all,she should be ripe picking for jeehard.She is in a relationship through infidelity,has had more than 1 partner,does not wear a shuttle-cock burkha and has bared it all more than once on the screen..

Kanishka · Post by **Kanishka** » 07 Sep 2010 14:59

Ambar wrote:In other news, Aunt Angelina Jolie is in Islamabad on her way to visit flood victims and get herself some karma brownie points. So no fatwas against this femme fatale eh? After all,she should be ripe picking for jeehard.She is in a relationship through infidelity,has had more than 1 partner,does not wear a shuttle-cock burkha and has bared it all more than once on the screen..

No no, no problem with all that.
As long as you are paying jazia no fatwas can be issued. Its in the pook.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2010 15:05

kanishka,

Rephrase it as, " As long as you are paying jazia and /or helping the faithfools with its collection no fatwas will be issued". Its ij written in the good pook.

Which is what aunt jolie is doing.

PS; Just how many flood kids will be adopted by the baby shopers jolie and madona this time from TSP. Any guesses.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Sep 2010 15:10

I hope there are no sun roof levers in her car.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2010 15:13

Dilbu wrote:I hope there are no sun roof levers in her car.

amit · Post by **amit** » 07 Sep 2010 15:58

Pratyush wrote:
Dilbu wrote:I hope there are no sun roof levers in her car.

And I hope the Paki PM is not traveling with her, especially when she is walking around.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Sep 2010 15:58

For all those who were wondering how TSP is going to repay their loans, here is an indicator.
Italy converts Rs3.2b debt into grant

ISLAMABAD: The Italian government converted a loan of Rs3.2 billion into a grant and earmarked it for financing 23 development projects, on the condition of a matching contribution from Pakistan, on Monday.
The debt to grant conversion was carried out under the ambit of Pakistan-Italy Debt Swap Agreement, signed in 2006, for a total amount of $100 million, or Rs8.4 billion.

So debt becomes grant which is equal equal to alms.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 07 Sep 2010 16:00

its a bit like how the rich cousin will write off the loan to a poor cousin at his wedding as a gift... since he never expected to get paid back anyway...

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Sep 2010 16:09

TTP is quite clear. It cannot stop suicide attacks

We are targeting Pakistani security forces because the government has allowed America to launch drone attacks on us,” Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman Azam Tariq told AFP by telephone.

“Rather it is on the Pakistan government's behest that drone attacks target us,” he said.

“We will continue suicide attacks on security forces. Civilians should avoid proximity with them.”

Tariq claimed responsibility for Monday's suicide attack on a police station in northwestern Pakistan in which 19 people were killed.

“We carried out the Lakki Marwat suicide attack,” Tariq said, adding that the Taliban “regretted” the killing of schoolchildren in the attack.

“Our children are also killed in drone attacks,” he said.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2010 16:25

On the 27th day of Ramzan, my bunny brought for me...nothing? :-(

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2010 16:31

Pakistan’s proclivity for wrong diagnosis

From HTs resident WKK.

Some of the excerpts from the blog.

Pakistan has none but itself to blame for much of its problems: terrorism, corruption, lack of robust democratic institutions, bad governance and lately, the international opprobrium directed at its cricketing heroes and those who run the sport in that country.

What upsets me as a Indian who strongly desires good relations with our western neighbour is that Pakistanis in positions of power blame India for most of their problems, be it seasonal floods, nationalist sentiments in Balochistan or terrorist violence within Pakistan. So much so that a section of the media there latched on to the statement of an ex-girlfriend of a tainted cricketer to allege Indian conspiracy behind the recent spot-fixing scam. Veena Malik’s charge that her boyfriend Mohammed Asif was in touch with an Indian bookie (photographer?) served as cannon fodder for the blinkered anti-India lobby.

Even if he loves of all thing paki, the writer is upset with what has been suggested by the Paki media.

In the manner of Qureshi, Hasan questioned the ICC’s suspension of Salman Butt, Mohammad Aamer and Mohammad Asif before the conclusion of police investigations. “I heard ICC CEO Haroon Lorgat talking to Pawar on phone before he sent a five page notice to players (facing match-fixing charges),” said the Pak envoy whose comments in the wake of the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai were as undiplomatic and insensitive. They reflected no iota of wisdom and appeared driven by a deep distaste and distrust of India.

Even he cannot overlook the stupidity and boorish behaviour of pakis.

Blatant attempts at generating smoke without fire— that’s what the actions of Hasan and Qureshi actually amounted to. In their attempt to score brownie points, they missed respectively the larger perspective of correcting the wrongs in Pak cricket and mending fences with India. If the diagnosis is faulty, medication cannot be right. What survives in the end is the disease that needs to be cured. The sooner Pakistan’s keepers realize that, the better it will be for their well-being.

A sane advice from the author of the piece. But will not be followed by TSP. As it comes from a Kuffar.

Looks like most of the rational actors of Indian media have come to the conclusion that TSP is beyond redemption and support.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 07 Sep 2010 16:34

Lalmohan wrote:its a bit like how the rich cousin will write off the loan to a poor cousin at his wedding as a gift... since he never expected to get paid back anyway...

I believe it is some kind of protection money which they are promising to pay Pakis. Italian economy is not in great position to offer alms to a nation of crooks,frauds and pedophiles.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Sep 2010 16:38

The awakening in the Afghan mind is coinciding with the return of the Russians,see the post in the Afghan thread,to support the Afghan govt. in reconstruction,etc.,repair the Salang Pass,helicopters,etc.A coinciding of interests between India,Russia and some other northern states along with the Afghan govt.,contours of which are slowly emerging,if firmly established will be a bulwark against any Paki/Talib attempt to overthrow the kabul regime.The floods ravaging Pak are a godsend to the Afghans and have revealed Pak as a state with "feet of clay",that dissolve in a flood.

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 16:49

How to fix flood-hit Pakistan

Guest columnist Ahmed Rashid argues that Pakistan's unpopular civilian government should allow foreign technocrats to sort out the country's mess - or its troubles may only get even worse.

in short he wants modern day bin qasim's to take over and fix pakistan. I mean what do they expect they are infants and some one needs to come and change their diapers? They are 63 year old now its time for adult underwears now not diapers

At every turn donor countries, charitable foundations, wealthy individuals or school children inside the country or abroad are refusing to give money to the Pakistani state to alleviate the suffering of nearly 20 million people affected by the floods.

wake up you foreign policy makers in various elite capitals of west. Look at the pulse on the street before you dust off those old cold war era wet dreams of using paki army for startegic purposes.

The UN said on 2 September that international fund raising had ''almost stalled'' in the previous two weeks, when only $17m dribbled in to UN coffers.

now the taqqiya news finally for western audicence

Yet with 5,000 miles of road and rail and 1,000 bridges washed away, 7,000 schools and 400 health clinics destroyed, vast areas of the north still cut off, one fifth of agricultural land under water and the looming threat of epidemics spreading though the flood victims, a coherent reconstruction plan is desperately needed.

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 16:51

Floods dampen Pakistan Defense Day enthusiasm

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 16:53

I thought Indian government was going to export cotton were they doing taqquiya?

Indian export ban takes cotton to 15-year peak

Cotton prices hit a fresh 15-year high in early trading on Tuesday after India unexpectedly extended export restrictions on the fibre.

What happens to baki towel industry now?

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2010 17:03

Brad Goodman wrote:
What happens to baki towel industry now?

The existing stocks must be wet, so they can start throwing them..

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 17:15

Beyond the ISI

useless article for most part but one piece of statistic stood out and I wanted to keep it for records

Why all the fuss? The Council on Foreign Relations reports that since 2002 over $11bn were donated to Pakistan for military toys — a boost to US defence industries too. Most of these sophisticated playthings, as India sourly observed, are scarcely useful in anti-terror endeavours.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 07 Sep 2010 17:16

Feudalism in Pakistan.
http://criticalppp.com/archives/22535

The concept, as defined by Karl Marx, refers to a particular mode of production in which capital and labour are concentrated in a single hand. Over the past 63 years, concentration of land in the hands of the few has reduced substantially. Akbar Zaidi’s research, which shows substantial reduction of large land holdings, is an essential reading before Altaf Hussain’s party comes to Punjab. The largest province, in any case, does not have huge tracts of land.

Having said that, it is true that land in Pakistan symbolises traditional power. Many people not only acquire land but also the behaviour and mindset representative of feudalism. Marx never explained the politico-cultural dimension of feudalism which signifies contempt for ordinary people and the tendency to impose one will on the rest by use of force. This mindset is found among the urban elite and the middle class as well. Private jails in Karachi, target killing of opponents and psychological coercion of the educated into submission to a central leadership is a behaviour not confined to just one part of Pakistan.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Sep 2010 17:29

Arjun wrote:While Karachi slowly burns

Good article...signs that the 3.5 are having second thoughts on their munna?

The interesting thing in this article is that it very clearly spells out that Pakistan and teh US ideally could be/would be allies against India. In more than one place:

In this context, the United States and Pakistan should be natural geopolitical allies. In an unequal confrontation between rival states, the weaker side typically has two options: sue for peace or find a strong ally to counterbalance the disparity.

and

But the lion’s share of responsibility for the current state of affairs lies with Pakistan. They have failed to properly comprehend their country’s geopolitical situation, they have failed to respond to challenges in a sensible and strategic way, and the mismanagement of the country by their ruling elite verges on the point of national suicide. While the conditions for a long-term strategic partnership are favorable, our would-be partners are too strategically myopic to embrace us, and too self-destructive to be of much help even if they chose to.

At issue is not merely Pakistan’s reluctance to divert conventional forces from its eastern border with India to fight fundamentalists in its northwest. The military’s fixation on India has led the country down a path that sets it in direct opposition to the interests of the United States. At every step of the way, from their partnership with U.S. enemies to acquire nuclear weapons, to their support for terrorist groups in Kashmir, to their past (and, if the recent WikiLeaks documents are taken at face value, continuing) relationship with the Taliban, Pakistan has systematically sacrificed its long-term strategic interest — which lies either in peace with India or support from the United States — in favor of minor and temporary enhancements to its security.

That only confirms what all of us know - that the US is a major problem as far as Pakistan's anti-India hostility is concerned. The US will, at the drop of a hat, provide Pakistan the aid to counterbalance India if only Pakistan serves the US as an ally. It's either make peace with India or find an ally equalise the power.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2010 17:37

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/daw ... ving-qs-04

This is a country that is a very large, very important country in the region, a very large, very important country in the globe, so that battle for the hearts and minds of people here is very important

That must be the politest way of saying ' pay them jizya or they are gonna blow themselves up in our cities and markets'

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 17:39

Just thinking out loud over the baki migration to India in case of eventual implosion of current paki state.

1) Lets isolate the population groups in pakistan and then see how they would react to adverse conditions.

A) KP (NWFP & FATA): they do not have any borders with India so in order to cross into India they need to cross Pakjab which means crossing fire (aag ka dariya) so lets safely rule them out. They have better affinity towards pashtun areas across the durand line.

B ) Baluchis: They again have the same issue no common borders. Have to cross sindh or pakjab to get to India. Their population is small and land mass is big enough to wade any storm. Plus they have a better cultural ties with sistan province in Iran.

C) Kashmiris (POK & GB not Mirpur): One they are still technically Indians. So GOI cannot officially deny them ghar wapsi. The population on this side of LOC does not harbor any strong anti emotions aganist these people so if they decide to cross over the opposition will be very little (except from people whose economic interest might get hurt by these new people)

D) Sindh: Now comes the last two which have borders with India but no real people to people contact. We need to divide the population into three categories. Sindh that borders Kutch (gujarat) , Sindh that borders balochistan and Mohajirs. Now the population that borders kutch has some level of cross border ties. The local population of kutch might not be hostile to these relatives from across the border but this is strictly limited to the marsh lands on either sides of IB so covers handful of district with sparse population. Other places like hyderabad (sindh) and jacobabad etc have no real ties left with gujarat so the local population will not support them with open hands. Mohajirs will definately want to run to UP Bihar since they have no real base for a prolonged fight. The rich elites can fly out to UP & Bihar with their relatives and secular parties bailing them out but this option is reserves for a select RAPES who can afford to grease their way into India. Plus if they have enough money they can try kanada, australia or dubai as well why India.

E) Pakjab: This is the gorrila in the room. Indian Punjab has no real lost love for pakjabis most families still have fresh wounds of partition and lost villages and lands. Unless Kuldeep Nayyar and his WKK chumps can accomodate pakjabis in their bedrooms there is no real feeling from mango punjabis to shelter these snakes. Punjab is densely populated state so there is no way they have the resources (land, water, food, health, education & security) to handle refugees problem of that scale.

--------------------------------
Now on this side of border we need to see how different actors will react

1) Kangress, Laloo, Mulayam & other secular parties: They will shed crocodile tears some will dream of vote bank politics. Now lets look at votebank politics in detail. This was successfully implemented in West Bengal by commies. But here the migrants did not come in one big tsunami to get noticed. They came in waves 100 - 200 at time. Its easier to fit such small numbers into the local population without raising any eyebrows. The whole process has happened over last 60 years and now people are slowly realizing the effects. So even if they are salivating at the prospects of creating a votebank they cannot do it overnight.

2) BJP, SS, SAD & others: They will ofcourse oppose any settlement of paki population tooth and nail. Many offshoot local and sub local parties will spring up and there will be mass polarization of middle class who would oppose any refugee appeasement with their tax money.

3) Rich and Industrialist classes: Not sure how they will react to the crisis. Now all parties need these people to fund the election machinery so their vote counts

4) Media: I am guessing they will report based on their political affiliations example burkha with congress and vernacular media with BJP. regional media per their state affiliations.

---------------------

Next steps would be to quantify these theories with numbers example how many Sindhis live in districts bordering Kutch etc to understand the scale of the problem. If any guru can punch hole into the assumptions I would be glad to revisit and modify the theory.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2010 17:52

You are dealing with a country that is very narrow ( I am not talking about minds here) and hence easy to cross in a matter of hours by road. So not sure how much this district-county mamla applies. After all, even Paki animals dont anymore rely only on bullock carts...Vietnam boat people, SL migrants and so many have crossed oceans...

GOI should start identifying enclaves within TSP to keep IDP's in safe custody. At the slightest hint of implosion, India should have a list of countries that would instantly cooperate and recognise Baloch and Sindh as independent countries and KP as part of Afghan as much as Afghans want to stretch the Durand line. That would keep things in some level of control.

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 17:54

Few weeks back I was reading this book called "Outliers" by Malocom Gladwell. There was an interesting theory about why certain societies live by the code of honor & dignity. He found out that in old times there were two classes of people 1) Farmers and 2) Shephards. He said for a farmer who has to cultivate land relies heavily on co-operation with fellow farmers for most of his activities. Plus since crops are not that easy to steal (in old days) unless theif wants to harvest the field and then run off with the produce, farmers were not overtly worried about projection of strength. Contrast this with shephards whose flock is always vulnerable to be stolen by rivals so he needs to project strength to keep any rival from attempting to steal his livelyhood by assuming he is weak. This is where honor becomes a real showstopper and trivial incidents can lead to bloodshed spanning across generations.

When we apply this logic to ROP in general and pakis in particular we can understand the pattern of paki responses to real life situation. NWFP, Baloch, Sindh are all not huge agricultural areas. Pakjab I assume was a dry land as well untill british setup the canal system which was not a very long time ago. Arabs too were nomads rearing sheeps and camels so they too carry the same code of honor. Same is true for Afghans.

Now the most interesting part was socilalogists wanted to see how this honor code affects an individual in adverse situatiuons so they did an experiement with college students. where subjects were invited for a task (drawing anything they like) and just before they could start drawing they were subjected to a situation where some one insulted them. The reaction was monitored and it was found that folks from agricultural background got angry quickly but after a while tempered out and controlled their emotions where as the folks from honor code background could not control their anger and just went on. So this is an important lesson for us when next time we debate with a paki.

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 07 Sep 2010 18:02

Suppiah wrote:You are dealing with a country that is very narrow ( I am not talking about minds here) and hence easy to cross in a matter of hours by road. So not sure how much this district-county mamla applies. After all, even Paki animals dont anymore rely only on bullock carts...Vietnam boat people, SL migrants and so many have crossed oceans...

GOI should start identifying enclaves within TSP to keep IDP's in safe custody. At the slightest hint of implosion, India should have a list of countries that would instantly cooperate and recognise Baloch and Sindh as independent countries and KP as part of Afghan as much as Afghans want to stretch the Durand line. That would keep things in some level of control.

Suppiah ji. I agree it takes few hours to cross from peshawar to amritsar but you need to realize that in 1947 it took even lesser time from Lawhore to Amritsar but still many unfortunate families could not make it. So it all depends on level of animosity between pathans and pakjabis which will determine how many filter through to wagah.

Second I agree with your example of SL tamils crossing ocean and entering India. But you need to realize that SL Tamils had open access to waters and did not have to traverse through Singhala areas for that. Once they got into their boats they had to only negotiate the shallow waters of palk straits which they were any ways doing for centuries as fishermen. Add to that they were 100% sure that they would be accepted with welcome hands on the shores of rameshwaram by the local population which was not just sympethetic to their cause but also identified with it. Add to this the state and central government was not opposing them at both ruling party & opposition level. So please use this context when you see a pathan entering wagah.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2010 18:12

Brad garu, When I mentioned Vietnamese, SL, I talked about crossing oceans, ending up on OZ, Canada, US, HK and so on...not Palk Straits

Anyway, point taken. Hostile local population could not stop even 100-200 at a time coming from Bangla to Assam, as you have rightly pointed out. Now they are finding themselves minoritised without appeasement and they can do nothing about it. Can the border district people stop thousands, without organised movement of some kind....without IA under clear instructions to shoot to kill? I am worried.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Sep 2010 18:18

The discussion on dealing with Pakistani immigration to India can perhaps be x-posted in the "Managing Pakistan's failure Thread"!

Thank you!