India-Russia: News & Analysis

[Johann]

Why was their development even continued beyond the 1960s, when missiles clearly dominated the strike forces? Just to keep something airborne all the time? Drones today could probably fulfill that role.

You can't recall a missile....there are advantages to keeping human beings in the loop. Plus you can disperse or redeploy bombers, while most ICBMs of the period were based at fixed sites. Plus of course you could if necessary use nuclear bombers in a conventional strategic role, something that the US has done many times.

Does China have any plans to acquire or develop strategic bombers?

They've been interested in trying to buy them from the Russians, and in the meanwhile they've continued to modernise the Tu-95 Badger/H-6.

The most modern version the H-6K seems to be geared as a cruise missile carrier, but even this depends on the Russians supply the engines they need.

[Philip]

With the major N-powers firming up their resolve to reduce N-stockpiles and prevent new entrants like Iran from gatecrashing into the N-club,LR stealthy PGMs will be the weapon of choice for all major military powers.Delivered by stealthy bombers and LR long endurance UCAVs,the possibility of a "Gary Powers" U-2 shootdown is also removed from the elelment of risk.But these aircraft come at very expensive unit rates and take years if not decades of development.Whether India,whose principal foes remain China and Pak,truly require a large fleet of high end manned bombers for N-warhead delivery is open to question.It is purely an academic exercise to imagine that we will need N-weapons as a threat against the mainland of the US or any of the other 5 N-powers,barring China.Democratic values and the vast Indian diaspora have and are linking India even more firmly with the major western democracies,though our independence of thought and action must remain sacrosant.Our main security task remains to sanitise the IOR and approaches into the IOR from hostile foces and to ensure that our energy supplies and trade by sea are accomplished during any crisis.

With the forthcoming testing of Agni-3s and 5s,land based mobile missiles should suffice until we have enough SSBNs as second strike insurance against Pak and China.In fact second strike against Pak is far easier achieved with a triad of N-warheads and delivery systems given the shorter ranges.However,Russia does have several sqds. of Backfires available,which require upgrading.These aircraft could be acquired at lesser cost than the Blackjacks and prove very useful in a maritime strike role,a well as carrying part of the deterrent if required.12 aircraft would be a useful number to acquire for the IN,as the major instrument of our deterrent in the future will be sub based.For the IAF,the "Super-Flankers" as I call them,the Flankers with 5th-gen tech inputs for which acquisition plans have been confirmed,will be enough to carry the air-launched version of Brahmos,2012 as is being officially mentioned.

[Willy]

India and Russia have always shared a great rapport! To infuse some life into the ties, we might need to have some defence agreements in a mutually beneficial way!

1) Greater co-operation and ToT agreements of PAK_FA! India might buy 200 of them, but if its a really good aircraft, we will buy more than 400, I am sure!

2) Strategic Bombers:India needs nuclear triad to realise its dreams of being a Super Power. We need to negotiate for 40-50 Tu-160 Blackjacks (optimised as per our requirements,read reduced RCS,Israeli tech.....) which is the world's heaviest military aircraft. It would be the perfect platform for India's Nirbhay cruise missile and also Shourya, if there is an air launched version of the latter. It will boost India's Nuclear Deterrence and immediately make India more important on the global scene. This will revive Russia's Bomber industry which doesn't manufacture anything now! And Tu-160s can slowly be replaced by PAK-DA!

40-50 Tu-160's??????????????????That's not going to be a reality in our life time mate.

[Johann]

Philip,

While bombers dedicated to a nuclear role are an expensive and needless waste, bombers that can also deliver conventional payloads are another matter.

Any operation against a conventional foe requires the fastest possible establishment air superiority and information superiority. The initial stages present a range of targets, some of them in the deep rear - radars and major communication/battle management centres, the power grid, leadership sites, airfields, naval facilities, etc. How many fighter-bombers would you need to deliver the same load, and what would the logistical challenges be?

The Chinese would like to turn the South China Sea in to their lake - a long arm to quickly blind and deafen countries as far south as Indonesia, or perhaps even Guam would be something they'd quite like.

The potential threat represented by the PLAAF's conventional bomber force to Indian cities in 1962 was enough to convince the Indian political leadership in that they didn't want to employ the IAF against the PLA even in a Close Air Support role.

A long range bomber force can exert a remarkable degree of deterrence no matter what kind of ordnance they carry.

[Philip]

Yes Johann,I agree with you about the PRC,SC Sea,etc.Since the IAF is to operate almost 300 Su-30MKIs,later versions on order with Brahmos,etc.,mid-air refuelling available too,I'm not sure whether a very large and costly bomber force of 40+ would also be needed,though very welcome if the funds to operate and maintain them were there! Since these aircraft (Sukhois) have recently been moved to bases in the A&N islands and Assam,they could fit the bill for the tasks you mentioned.At the moment the largest airstrip that could handle heavy bombers is at Arkonam near Madras where the TU-142 Bear LRMPs are stationed.Perhaps acquiring more of this type too if available cheap and then upgraded,could be another useful asset for the IN.I'm not sure if future IN P-8s will be able/allowed to carry Brahmos.

[Johann]

Philip,

I'm not sure about 40+ either! I would think half that many could do just easily.

The Tu-142 in service with the IN is of course developed from the Tu-95 which still serves as a strategic bomber in the Russian Air force

The Tu-22M is so valuable simply because the range of tasks it might be put to - nuclear or conventional delivery, strategic recce, electronic warfare.

The Americans for example want their next bomber to be capable of performing all those tasks - otherwise as you say its difficult to justify the cost.

What should distinguish a bomber from other smaller multirole aircraft? Payload, range, and the ability to access denied airspace. Multi-purpose maritime recce aircraft have the range but they arent configured for the denied airspace bit. Even when it comes to payload they are optimised to carry analysts rather than ordnance or fuel.

[Carl_T]

How could a strategic bomber ever access denied airspace unless it was both stealthy and supersonic? I think a strategic bomber fleet could be big targets for BVR missiles.

[D Roy]

well the Blackjack is supersonic and latest versions have reduced RCS. The utility of a strat bomber lies in the revisit footprint and area persistence something that a fighter can never do.'

And as you know,with the advent of precision strategic munitions a bomber does not even have to come close to the denied airspace. So given that these types of munitions are bulky they will make even a heavy fighter sluggish while a Blackjack would be able to carry quite a few without the same kind of sacrifice in performance relatively speaking.

The argument against strat bombers almost inevitably boils down to one of cost and maintenance.

[Philip]

Yes,Johann.I'd rather we got a few more Tu-142s to add to those in
service and a decent squadron of Backfires 12-16 which would suffice.The problem is that both types require extensive upgrades which might make them expensive to acquire and operate,but it's upto the IAF and IN to lobby for such a system.

[Austin]

Well the IAF never had a concept of Strategic Bombing , infact we never had any kind of long reach before MKI arrived.

Only US and Russia maintains such fleet (Nuclear Conventional ) with decades of experience , strategy , political will and money to back it up.

So all this talk of IAF maintaining bomber fleet is just flight of fancy , considering most countries wont be willing to sell you strategic bombers , we do not have an industry that can build one nor does IAF has the strategy or GOI has the ambition and will to back such thing.

Any ways to talk of bomber fleet , I have got my copy of Yefim Gordon "Russian Strategic Aviation" and it seems all the strategic semi-strategic bomber ( Tu-22M3 , Tu-95MS and Tu-160 ) are being comprehensively upgraded for precision attack conventional role. Plus two new cruise missile will equip them

KH-101/102 -- Long Range 5,500 km Low RCS Cruise Missile ( 0.01 RCS ) Conventional/Nuclear
KH-555 --- Medium Range ( 3,000 km ) Cruise missile.

Both missile can carry conventional warhead of 410 kg.

There are plans for a new short range KH-SD ( 600 Km ) cruise missile to replace the old KH-22M series.

Here is some extract on the missile and payload capacity of each aircraft to carry them

The flight testing of the Kh-101 has already been completed. This missile weighs some 2,200 - 2,400 kg , the weight of warhead is 400 kg. According to press reports, the Kh-101 has a maximum range of 5,000-5,500 Km a variable flight profile at altitudes ranging from 30 - 70m to 6000m , a cruising speed of 190-200 m/s and a maximum speed of 250-270m/s. It can well be classed as a low-observable flying vehicle because the radar cross section of the Kh-101 is 0.01 m2. The missile is equipped with an electro-optical system for correcting the flight trajectory and with a TV guidance system for terminal guidance. This ensures the hitting precision with a deviation of some 12- 20m.

The upgraded Tu-95MS can carry eight Kh-101 missiles on four wing pylons. The same missile will also equip the upgraded Tu-160 which will be able to carry six missiles in each of its two weapons bays total of 12 Kh-101 or 102 missile. The highly accurate guidance system of the Kh-101 and its combined HE/fragmentation/penetrating warhead will enable one modernised Tu-160 to fulfil tasks previously achievable with an entire regiment of bombers. The upgraded version of Tu-22M3 is capable of carrying four Kh-101 missiles or six to eight Kh-SD

[Austin]

Putin slams West for deceiving Russia

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has accused western countries of using unfair political methods including deceit and breaking promises to obstruct the process of "resetting" relations between Russia and the West.

In an interview in Kommersant daily, Putin said his speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, which several western politicians considered a declaration of reviving the Cold War, was still relevant, as many western countries are unfair in their dealings with Russia.

"At time of the withdrawal from East Europe, the NATO secretary general promised the USSR it could be confident that NATO would not expand over its current boundaries," Putin said.

"And where is it? I asked them [NATO officials] about this. They have nothing to say. They deceived us in the rudest way."

Russia-U.S. relations face a lot of problems, Putin said. "We had just come to terms that there would be no missiles [NATO missile defense systems] in Poland...but it was suddenly announced that the same [missile defense system deployment] was planned for other European countries."

"I think it [the Munich speech] was useful. Because I said the truth... They [Western countries] told us one thing, but did another. They spoofed us in the full sense of this world," the premier said

Putin cited the case of Konstantin Yaroshenko, a Russian pilot arrested in Liberia on charges of drug trafficking and extradited to the United States in May 2010.

"His [Yaroshenko's] lawyer set out the issue precisely: A Russian resident in an African country was accused of drug trafficking. How do U. S. state interests come into the picture? No one can say exactly! They took a foreign resident and moved him out in secret. What is this?"

"In this sense, all that I spoke about in Munich is relevant today," Putin said.

U.S. President Barrack Obama seems to be sincere in his intentions to improve relations, Putin said. "I would like to see whether he will manage or not. But he wants to. I have an instinct that this is his sincere position," Putin said.

[Austin]

Mysterious death of Deputy Chief of GRU ? The word "tragically" seems not so tragic.

Russian Intelligence Chief Dies While Swimming

The deputy head of Russia's powerful military intelligence agency died mysteriously in a swimming accident, Russian media reported Saturday.

"Several days ago, General Yuri Ivanov died while swimming," official news agency RIA Novosti quoted a military source as saying.

The report did not give any further details on the circumstances of the death, or the location.

Ivanov was deputy head of the GRU, the overseas intelligence gathering arm of the Russian military.

Daily Kommersant reported that the 52-year-old had died "tragically," wording that was repeated in an obituary in defense ministry newspaper Red Star, which also failed to provide any details.

During the Soviet era the GRU was considered a rival to the KGB, the secret service, now known as the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

[Johann]

X-posting from the TSP thread;

Acharya
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 29 Aug 2010 06:32 pm
Offline
BRF Oldie

Realistically, such events as "reclaiming" G-B and Askai Chin are not going to occur, regardless of the breakup of Pakistan, unless the PRC is in the throes of a revolution and relinquishes ambitions in its southwest corner. IOW, unless Tibet breaks free and Xinjiang is going that way, so that the PLA does not have much reason to fight for the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway/Road. It's nice to dream of seamless access from Kanyakumari to Kyrgystan, but it is not going to happen through all Indian Territory any time soon. Maybe the region will some day become so calm and Pakistan-free that the borders are open all the way and ppl don't have much cause to care what nation's borders they are inside.

Such projects are 100 years or 200 years projects. They do not happen within a short period.
The partition of India and the closed borders between India and Pakistan changed the dynamics of the central asia suddenly after centuries of connection. The previous change was created by Russians in early 1700-1800s when they changed the demographics by removing the Indian merchants and settling russian slavs in that area.

[Johann]

X-posting from the TSP thread

Paul
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 29 Aug 2010 08:24 pm
Offline
BRFite

The previous change was created by Russians in early 1700-1800s when they changed the demographics by removing the Indian merchants and settling russian slavs in that area.

It is in Indian interests for Russian interests to be rolled north of Kazan. A dormant Russia is the key reason why PRC is flexing it's muscles in Asia.

[Johann]

X-posting from the TSP thread

Johann
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 29 Aug 2010 10:13 pm
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 12:00 am
Posts: 1210
Paul wrote:

It is in Indian interests for Russian interests to be rolled north of Kazan. A dormant Russia is the key reason why PRC is flexing it's muscles in Asia.

Sorry, is there a typo? Do you mean it is not in Indian interests?

Most of the conflict between the PRC and USSR from 1958-1988 was over who was going to lead the international communist movement. Mao thought he rather than Khrushchev should have succeeded Stalin as the central figure in world communism.

Plus when the Soviets declared after Czechoslovakia in 1968 that they had the right to replace the leadership in 'deviant' communist states, Mao assumed the Soviets might come for him next.

Deng wanted to replace the Soviets as the chief patrons of communist parties in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia and Afghanistan. The collapse of communism as an international force made the competition moot.

The issue that frightens the Russian public more than the Russian state is Chinese migration in to the Far East. So far the Kremlin doesnt seem to have any serious worries about a Chinese land grab, and despite historical disputes the PRC is not behaving in the way it does with Taiwan, the South China Sea states, India, Japan, etc. They have shown no real interest in opening another front, especially when Russian military technology is something they will still need to buy for another decade or so.

The closest thing to competition between Russia and China today is the new great game influence and control over oil and gas infrastructure in Central Asia, and its very low key, nothing like the Russian-Western competition over the same.

[Johann]

Paul
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 30 Aug 2010 12:59 am
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 25 Jun 1999 06:01 am
Posts: 989

Sorry, is there a typo? Do you mean it is not in Indian interests?

No Johann, I still think it is in Indian interests for Russian influence to be rolled to pre-1700 AD borders.

I am probably the only person in this forum who thinks Russian and British imperial interests complimented each other in the great game. Hence they both need to be rolled back to the era when there independent Khanates in Turan. British imperial interests were secured through sea routes and Russian through the land routes.

Most BRFites are mistaken if they think Rus transfer in Submarine and aircraft technology is synomous with Indo-Russian convergence of national interests. Russian public is probably looking in the wrong direction if they think Chinese demographics is the biggest existential threat to their existence. Just wait for a few decades for the turks to get going......

[Johann]

Acharya
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 30 Aug 2010 05:24 am
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 07:01 am
Posts: 6852
Paul wrote:

I am probably the only person in this forum who thinks Russian and British imperial interests complimented each other in the great game. Hence they both need to be rolled back to the era when there independent Khanates in Turan. British imperial interests were secured through sea routes and Russian through the land routes.

I agree with you and many people who know the history understand this.
The ascent of the Europe and West in late 1700 gave them enough control over long term policy on race and demographics. They have used it to their advantage in Eurasia as they colonized the populations. Indians were a victim of a joint policy of England and the Russia over the last 300 years.

[Johann]

X-posted from the TSP thread

Acharya
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 30 Aug 2010 05:29 am
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 07:01 am
Posts: 6852
Johann wrote:

The issue that frightens the Russian public more than the Russian state is Chinese migration in to the Far East. So far the Kremlin doesnt seem to have any serious worries about a Chinese land grab, and despite historical disputes the PRC is not behaving in the way it does with Taiwan, the South China Sea states, India, Japan, etc. They have shown no real interest in opening another front, especially when Russian military technology is something they will still need to buy for another decade or so.

It is true that the Russians are afraid of the chinese encroachment but Chinese are slow in this. They really dont have a colonization strategy but need some room due to demographic bulge. After 10-20 years it will recede back and these chinese can be trapped in these new areas. POK and the Gilgit area

[Johann]

X-posted from the TSP thread

Johann
Post subject: Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 09, 20
PostPosted: 30 Aug 2010 03:36 pm
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 12:00 am
Posts: 1210

No Johann, I still think it is in Indian interests for Russian influence to be rolled to pre-1700 AD borders.

I am probably the only person in this forum who thinks Russian and British imperial interests complimented each other in the great game. British imperial interests were secured through sea routes and Russian through the land routes.

There's no question that the mutual competition egged each of them to push harder and faster, and there's no question that the dynamics of the Great Game were the biggest single factor in the support for Pakistan's creation.

Hence they both need to be rolled back to the era when there independent Khanates in Turan...Most BRFites are mistaken if they think Rus transfer in Submarine and aircraft technology is synomous with Indo-Russian convergence of national interests.

Not sure about this - realistically when one looks forward the only real problem is the strategic nature of Sino-Russian cooperation given India's problems with the PRC. I'm not sure that a Russian collapse in the Far East would do anything other than strengthen the PRC.

A loss of Russian influence in Central Asia would also be a great thing for Pakistan - In the 1990s Russian border guards were the only thing that stopped the Deobandis and the ISI from rolling in to Dushanbe.

Tomorrow (and perhaps even today) the loads of Chinese money and the PLA might do in a pinch, but I don't think it is sufficient, which is why Russia and China form the heart of the SCO, and that is unlikely to change. The only country that has the ambition and the cultural ties that could allow it to play a similar role is Iran, but they have enormous internal problems (like an ideology that places getting involved in Shia areas of the world ahead of Farsi/Dari speaking areas) to sort out first.

Russian public is probably looking in the wrong direction if they think Chinese demographics is the biggest existential threat to their existence. Just wait for a few decades for the turks to get going......

Russians are actually most worried about the internal demographics of Chechens and Muslims from the Caucasus, as well as large numbers of Muslim immigrants from Central Asia - there is shift in public opinion from retaining Chechnya at all costs to preserve the federation to getting Chechens out of Russia.

The people who will have to worry the most about Turkish demographics are the EU. As for Turkey's political ambitions they will probably come at the expense of Iran which has spent the last 30 years trying to win over the Arabs with only very limited success outside the Shia minority.

In most ways Russians still benchmark themselves against the United States, and thinks of success and failure as a competition with the Americans, rather than the PRC, or Iran, or Turkey or any of the other rising powers. Perhaps that will change in coming decades...

[Carl_T]

I remember Russia's population grew for the first time last year, did they ever release how that growth broke down in terms of ethnic groups?

[Austin]

Russian book confirms Soviet intelligence support for Argentina in Malvinas war

Apparently on May 15, 1982 the Soviets launched the Kosmos 1365 satellite which was positioned over the South Atlantic thus supplying strategic information about the British Task Force and its position to the Argentines. Brilev had first read the news in a Time magazine during the conflict and it was intriguing that the launch occurred at the height of the war and a month and a half following the Argentina landing in the Falklands.

Brilev tried access to Moscow archives but it was “classified information”. He therefore contacted top Soviet military officers from the eighties. Brilev mentions General Nikolai Leonov, who was then head of KGB analytical services and General Valentin Varennikov, first deputy chief of Soviet forces in Moscow. Both confirmed the provision of regular intelligence aid to the Argentines.

Brilev in the book argues that the Argentines were able to locate and sink HMS Sheffield with the Navy Mirages and Exocet missiles thanks to information from Soviet satellites already in orbit over the South Atlantic. The Argentine version of a Neptune aircraft detecting the Royal Navy frigate sounds “too patriotic”, says the Russian writer who adds that that model of naval search aircraft was too already old and had serious maintenance problems.

“I’m convinced the strategic information for the sinking of the Sheffield was supplied by the Soviets”, he insists.

Another Argentine coup, on May 25th, the sinking of HMS Coventry and the Atlantic Conveyor which went down with 15.000 tons of crucial equipment, Brilev also attributes to strategic info from the Kosmos-1365.

However Soviet support was not limited to satellite intelligence. Brilev states that the Soviets used TU-95 intelligence gathering aircrafts to follow the Task Force as it sailed south in an area from the Gulf of Biscay to the Equator. Sometimes the aircrafts would fly as low as 30/40 metres above the Royal Navy vessels. Soviet Colonel Georguiy Bulbenkov confirmed his participation as pilot in these low flight incursions.

[Philip]

Russian golden bonanza. The Tsar's lost gold may have been found!
The luck of Putin and Medvedev.

Has the lost treasure of the Tsars been found at the bottom of the world's deepest lake?By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 3:25 AM on 1st September 2010

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldne ... z4xDAuT7CR

A Russian mini-submarine may have found billions of pounds worth of lost Tsarist gold on the floor of the world’s oldest and deepest freshwater lake in Siberia, it was revealed yesterday.

Explorers have long searched for treasures dating from the Bolshevik Revolution when forces loyal to the deposed royal family fled the advancing Red Army.
Legend has it that 1,600 tons of gold, which could now be worth billions of pounds, was lost when anti-Communist commander Admiral Alexander Kolchak’s train plunged into Lake Baikal.

Search: The Mir-2 mini-submarine is lowered into the waters of Lake Baikal. It may have found billions of pounds worth of lost Tsarist gold on the floor of the world's oldest and deepest freshwater lake in Siberia
Last year remnants of a train and ammunition boxes were found in the lake but in recent days the Mir-2 submersible found 'shiny metal objects' on the murky lake bottom, some 1,200 feet below the surface at Cape Tolsty.
'Deep-sea vehicles found rectangular blocks with a metallic gleam, like gold, 400 metres below the surface,' said one source.
Moscow News reported the story with the headline ‘Lost gold of the Whites found in Baikal’. Explorers attempted to grab hold of the shiny objects with the mini-sub’s manipulator arm but failed due to the loose gravel on the lake’s floor.

Sources say that the submariners know the exact spot and are planning a new mission to determine if they have found the gold, and if so to bring a sample to the surface.

[Neshant]

Sometimes the aircrafts would fly as low as 30/40 metres above the Royal Navy vessels. Soviet Colonel Georguiy Bulbenkov confirmed his participation as pilot in these low flight incursions.

Is this true or just made up? It is such an extreme provocation to a country at war.

Any plane that is shadowing a vessel in time of war is liable to be shot down.

It sounds like a made up story.

[Deans]

Sometimes the aircrafts would fly as low as 30/40 metres above the Royal Navy vessels. Soviet Colonel Georguiy Bulbenkov confirmed his participation as pilot in these low flight incursions.

Is this true or just made up? It is such an extreme provocation to a country at war.
Any plane that is shadowing a vessel in time of war is liable to be shot down.
It sounds like a made up story.

That's what I thought too. In any case why would aircraft do this when the progress of RN convoys could easily
be picked up by satellite. And where would these aircraft be based ?

[Austin]

Sometimes the aircrafts would fly as low as 30/40 metres above the Royal Navy vessels. Soviet Colonel Georguiy Bulbenkov confirmed his participation as pilot in these low flight incursions.

Is this true or just made up? It is such an extreme provocation to a country at war.

Any plane that is shadowing a vessel in time of war is liable to be shot down.

It sounds like a made up story.

If its international waters then its not an issue and SU was not at war with UK.

It was SOP for NATO and SU to buzz each other vessel as close as possible to gather what ever sheet they could.

That reminds me of a video of Paki Atlantique flying very close like 30 odd meters near our Rajput class in Intl waters.

[Johann]

Neshant,

The Royal Navy spotted the Tu-95, as well as the Soviet trawlers like the Zaporozhive, and the British assumption at the time was that the Soviets passed the information to the Argentineans from those platforms as well as satellites and SSNs. All of this contributed to RN expectations of *heavy* losses.

The funny thing is that subsequent reports after the war led many to believe that the reports of Soviet intelligence sharing were false - the Argentines for example had more intelligence resources of their own than previously believed and had treated Soviet offers of help with suspicion. GCHQ for example recorded a signal from an Argentinean trawler near Ascension island reporting the departure of the Task Force, etc, etc.

Most of this is in Nigel West's "The Secret War for the Falklands "

So this new Russian book is quite interesting since it seems to point in the direction of the original evidence. There's no question that at the very least the Soviets thought that offering help might help detach Argentina from the United States.

It's rather ironic since the Argentine junta was one of the most reactionarily and violently anti-communist regimes anywhere in the world. Thousands of people were disappearing every year in to secret prisons and torture centres on the merest suspicion of leftist leanings, with many were thrown out in to the Atlantic from navy helicopters.

Kissinger had developed very close ties to the South American military dictatorships, so it is not surprising that his former assistant and Reagan's Secretary of State Alexander Haig (the one who declared "I am in charge" when Reagan was shot) along with the ambassador to the UN Jeanne Kirkpatrick were strongly in favour of backing the Argentineans. Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and a number of others stood on the British side and won out.

[krisna]

X posted from PRC economic dhaaga
Russian PM Launches Oil Pipeline To China

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Sunday opened the Russian side of an oil pipeline to energy-hungry China in a ceremony in Skovorodino in the Far Eastern Amur region.

Putin said that the Russian part of the project, which would transport oil through Serbia to northeastern Chinese region Daqing, was completed.

Putin stated that the oil would start pumping into China later this year in spite of the fact that China was yet to construct 930km on its soil to link up the pipeline.

Analysts said Russia’s energy ties with China came after its recent spat with Ukraine, which refused to allow transit of crude oil to Russia’s European destinations over a dispute on gas payments last winter.

[shukla]

X-post..

TOI reports..

India, Russia to develop missiles having speed of 6,000 kmph

India will soon become the first country to have cruise missiles with hyper speed of over 6,000 km per hour, as an agreement for their joint development will be signed with Russia during the visit of President Dmitry Medvedev here in December. The first unit of Kudankulam nuclear plant, built by Russia in Tamil Nadu, will also be commissioned during the visit slated to begin from December 21.

Medvedev will be undertaking the visit for annual India-Russia Summit with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, during which the two sides will discuss ways to further enhance their relations in various fields. One of the highlights of the visit would be signing of a contract for joint development of hypersonic version of the BrahMos cruise missile, defence ministry sources said here.

This version of the missile will have a speed of over 6,000 kms per hour, making India the only country in the world to possess such missiles of this speed. The speed of the existing variant of BrahMos is half than that of the proposed ones. With a range of 290 kms, the hypersonic missiles are expected to be ready by 2015-16, the sources said. The much-delayed first unit of Kudankulam nuclear power plant is also expected be made operational during the visit of Medvedev, who will be visiting the site for the purpose, they said.

[Austin]

Moscow arms against nuclear attack

Nearly 5,000 new emergency bomb shelters will be built in Moscow by 2012 to save people in case of potential attacks.

Moscow authorities say the measure is urgent as the shelters currently available in the city can house no more that half of its population.

In order to resolve the issue, the city has given architects a task to construct a typical model of an easy-to-build shelter that will be located all over the city 10 to 15 meters underneath apartment blocks, shopping centers, sport complexes and parks, as in case of attack people will need to reach the shelters within a minute.

Moscow saw its first mass building of shelters in the 1930s, after which 7,000 of them were constructed. Some of Russia’s metro stations have been built very deep underground so that they could double as air raid shelters.

[Altair]

Moscow arms against nuclear attack

Nearly 5,000 new emergency bomb shelters will be built in Moscow by 2012 to save people in case of potential attacks.

Moscow authorities say the measure is urgent as the shelters currently available in the city can house no more that half of its population.

Why is it so Urgent? Clearly the MAD era is gone. The US is not gonna nuke Moscow by 2012! Why??

[chetak]

Sometimes the aircrafts would fly as low as 30/40 metres above the Royal Navy vessels. Soviet Colonel Georguiy Bulbenkov confirmed his participation as pilot in these low flight incursions.

Is this true or just made up? It is such an extreme provocation to a country at war.

Any plane that is shadowing a vessel in time of war is liable to be shot down.

It sounds like a made up story.

I have seen this very thing done by done by the IN over paki men of war.

As also by the australians and the pakis to us.

There must be some glorious shots in the archives of paki family jewels. They used to line up, salwars down and kameez up when they saw the approaching aircraft.

Traditional paki position in international waters.

[Philip]

Russia reminds itself how far it has come

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 72101.html

Xcpts:

Tuesday, 7 September 2010

Full of joie de vivre: the works in Russia's contemporary art museum on the regenerated Vasilievsky Island in St Petersburg include Annunciation (2001) by Zaven Arshakuni

Twenty years ago, as Mikhail Gorbachev was battling to accelerate the reforms that, in the end, proved fatal to communism, he needed all the help he could get. Some of that help came from an unexpected quarter: a highly controversial film directed by Stanislav Govorukhin, Tak zhit' nel'zya (You Can't Live Like That), which chronicled the sordidness of daily life in the Soviet Union, the pervasive poverty and petty nastinesses, and the way the system forced ordinary people to lie and cheat to live anything like a normal life. What he painted was an endlessly depressing picture of a discredited and degenerate society. It also happened to be true.

Instead of being banned, or savagely censored, as early rumours suggested it would be, the film became the programmatic statement of Gorbachev's twin policies of glasnost and perestroika. It was screened, at Gorbachev's insistence, to the party's ruling Politburo; attendance was mandatory. Then the whole of the Central Committee was summoned to a screening, then the Soviet Parliament, then the media, and finally the film was released nationwide. Cinemas were packed.

You Can't Live Like That became one of the reformers' most powerful weapons. Here was proof that the Soviet system as it currently operated had lost all credibility and, instead of creating a bright future for everyone, was producing the absolute opposite effect.

Last night, to mark the 20th anniversary of its release, the film was broadcast in its entirety, on a widely accessible domestic satellite channel, to a Russia that, for the most part, looks and feels a world away from that depicted in Govorukhin's film. Maybe historical significance was the chief reason for the broadcast, but it is hard not to suspect an ulterior motive. At a time when Russians, despite almost two decades of rising living standards, still face a long slog to approach the relatively comfortable lives enjoyed by, say, those in the Baltic States or, still more, Western Europe, Tak zhit' nel'zya was a reminder of how dreadful it used to be and how far Russia has come.

And when I write far, I mean far. When the film came out, women were getting up at the crack of dawn to queue at shops for basic necessities. All over the country shelves were bare. Even bread and milk were in short supply. Western countries had vast quantities of emergency food stocks in Finland and elsewhere, anticipating a major refugee crisis, if – as was feared – Russians fled across the border.

It did not come to that – quite. The regime fell; unofficial supply chains re-established themselves. Prices were "reformed" and goods miraculously reappeared on open sale, at a price. But Govorukhin's film, descending as though from another planet that no Russian under 25 can remember living on, gives the Russian government something to take credit for. It's hard not to conclude that this was an evening of negative nostalgia that served quite a few different interests.

Smooth landing: an airport to write home about

Like many regular travellers to Russia, I suspect, I spend the last hour of the flight steeling myself for the ordeal to follow: most of all the impenetrable queues for passport control that continually change their form, while always leaving you further back. Well, something extraordinary happened at St Petersburg last week – the plane was hooked up to a sky bridge, the escalators were working and what looked like a sort of pre-check for passport control turned out to be the real thing. Every booth staffed, no queues worth speaking of and more than a hint of a smile from the – clearly civilian – official, in a smart blue uniform. The luggage arrived almost at once, and the whole process of entering Russia had taken less than 10 minutes. St Petersburg says it wants more tourists and more investors. It may have figured out one way to get them.

Only two years ago, Vasilievsky Island, across the river from the oldest part of the city, had derelict dockyards, outdated factories, dilapidated housing and the main buildings and institutes of the university – all of which had seen better days. The whole area is now in the throes of an expensive facelift with what is called "elite housing" being built, more and more small shops opening and a dozen or more up-market restaurants along the embankments. Recently opened – so recently that you can still smell the paint, and they haven't stopped the enormously heavy front doors from sticking – is Russia's largest private museum of contemporary art, starting mostly from the mid-1980s, the perestroika years, and going up almost to today.

The variety of the work, the use of colour, the mix of styles – figurative and abstract, folkloric naif, decorative and spare – is a delight to behold. Gone is the bitter satire that characterised much late Soviet-era art. There is all of the energy of the Khrushchev Thaw – though much of that art was kept underground after K took against it – and a bursting sense of joie de vivre. The bleaker canvasses tend to religious themes, or allude to the death throes of communism. If you really worry that nothing has changed in Russia over the past 20 years, an afternoon at Erarta might cheer you up.

PS:The Russians might have classified info on possible N-attacks from Islamic terrorists like the Chechens,who have close links to the Pakis/ISI and the Taliban.IT is why they are re-engaging in Afghanistan (see post in AF. thread),as they want to prevent Islamist terror and drug smuggling into Russia from the Af-Pak region.

[Sanjay M]

Vladimir Putin considers Russia presidency bid(BBC)

Heh, I like this Russian Remus and Romulus act. They've done pretty well with it so far.

[Johann]

Philip,

Thanks for posting that article. It is interesting to think about how similar an article about Shanghai would read, and what that means.

Moscow and Russia had two models of change to chose from - the Polish Solidarity model, and the Chinese Deng style-CPC model.

What has emerged in the last 20 years is something that is meant to look like Europe (because despite what they say, even the most powerful Russians care deeply about how they are perceived in Europe), but actually functions like China.

Economic ideology has shifted, but a commitment to one-party, top-down rule remains. This is not surprising; the people who run Russia today grew up in a one-party system, and were almost all junior members of the Party and the ruling elite. China's success in the 1990s if anything demonstrated to people like Putin where Gorbachev had gone wrong - dismantling the Party and restructuring the state instead of the economic system.

There are however important differences between the CPC and United Russia. The CPC after Deng developed an institutional core which allowed party-state leadership to be periodically changed, whereas leadership and power in Russia remains vested in the individual (Yeltsin, then Putin).

The other fundamental difference is economic strategy - the PRC has concentrated on the export of finished goods, while Russia has primarily relied on exporting raw and processed natural resources. Medvedev's big push for 'modernisation' is to move Russia up the value chain to not only manufacturing, but design. Winning the commitment of the Russian ruling classes to this goal in the way that Deng did is crucial for Russia's next stage of recovery. Without this crucial step the 2000s will represent a kind of peak, since oil and gas revenues are set to gradually diminish.

[krisna]

^^^^
Geographically
Russia has a large land mass unfortunately most of the coastline is towards the artic side.
China has a large land mass and also has a coastline in pacific.
USA is the luckiest of all with 2 oceans with large land mass and far away from the potential pretenders to the super power status.
In a way china can be more intimidating compared to Russia due to the Russian land mass landlocked.

North east of china is siberian areas of Russia. There are not enough populations in those areas. No proper infrastructure. Trans Siberian railway line runs here. If chinese wants these areas they may settle in manchurian areas and not anywhere else.
If there is wealth in siberian plateau with oil and minerals etc then the scenario changes.

[Sanku]

There are however important differences between the CPC and United Russia. The CPC after Deng developed an institutional core which allowed party-state leadership to be periodically changed, whereas leadership and power in Russia remains vested in the individual (Yeltsin, then Putin).

Fascinating, the western tendency to run down Russia and Putin on manufactured *perspectives* at every little excuse.

Just what remotely is the basis to compare China post hand shake by Nixon and current Russia?

Russia is for better or for worse a full democracy, if it happens to be straddled by a Giant like Putin and thus keeps choosing him how does that become like a controlled One party like CPC?

If anything, Russia today is like India in 50-70s where a IG emerged as Giant and then held on for a long time in a true democracy (she too was much disliked by the west for similar reasons as their ire for Putin I think)

The post by Philip clearly shows the joy of life Russians are returning to post their tryst with stifling political and economic systems.

Russia has chosen a path of full democracy, controlled capitalism (instead of lassize-faire that some would like) and are rebuilding their nation on sound fundamentals, instead of environment destroying natural resource guzzling unstable and paranoid nightmare of a fascist country.

[Johann]

There are however important differences between the CPC and United Russia. The CPC after Deng developed an institutional core which allowed party-state leadership to be periodically changed, whereas leadership and power in Russia remains vested in the individual (Yeltsin, then Putin).

Just what remotely is the basis to compare China post hand shake by Nixon and current Russia?

Russia is for better or for worse a full democracy, if it happens to be straddled by a Giant like Putin and thus keeps choosing him how does that become like a controlled One party like CPC?

If anything, Russia today is like India in 50-70s where a IG emerged as Giant and then held on for a long time in a true democracy (she too was much disliked by the west for similar reasons as their ire for Putin I think)

- the legislative is a powerless rubber stamp with token parties (yes thats right the CPC is not the only party elected to the National People's Congress). All power flows from the executive. This model has been described as "Sovereign Democracy" by the Kremlin's chief party-machine architect, Vladimir Surkov

- The only businesses that are permitted to flourish are those with close ties to the bureaucracy and the party, whose leading figures are repaid in cash and kind. If anything these ties are even more cartel like in Russia than China. Owning a small business in Russia is nearly impossible because of these pressures - I know many middle class Russians who would like to start something but are scared of both private muscle and bureaucratic harassment that would follow. This is one of the reasons the Russian economy outside Moscow and St. Petersurg is so underdeveloped. Please look at the reports of the massive protests in Kaliningrad a few months ago.

- Writing about corruption, land-grabbing, etc by the regional party bosses, bureaucracy, and the businesses they support will get you killed or beaten up, just like China. Please see what Reporters Sans Frontiers and the CPJ have to say on this.

Russia is an effectively one-party state, controlled straight from the top. To compare United Russia under Putin (or its predecessor under Yeltsin) to the Congress(I) under Mrs. Gandhi (who was generally liked and respected in the UK btw) is demeaning to Indian democracy, and complete blanking of the Russian political system.

I don't remember a time even in the darkest days of the Emergency when elections for Chief Ministers were permanently abolished and replaced with direct appointments from Delhi.

I don't remember a time when India ranked as one of the most dangerous places in the world for journalists.

I dont remember a time when Indian parliament lacked control over the budget, and no power to bring down the government.

I don't remember a time in India when parliamentary opposition was limited to parties that accepted handouts from the government in exchange for electoral contests whose outcomes are decided by the government beforehand.

Putin is personally popular, but the system he presides over and helped build is despised, a pattern common to many authoritarian societies. Russians would very much like to see improvements, but the avenues that Indians have to demand improvements - namely competitive elections, press freedoms, and the chance to build your own business are simply not available. Those frustrations show in other places, like music and political apathy although amongst the middle class this apathy is increasingly turning in to civil activism.

Russia has chosen a path of full democracy, controlled capitalism (instead of lassize-faire that some would like) and are rebuilding their nation on sound fundamentals, instead of environment destroying natural resource guzzling unstable and paranoid nightmare of a fascist country.

Sanku, Russia's entire economy is largely on natural resource extraction, where stuff is being pushed out the door in to the world market as fast as they can get it out there. Most of this is being done by enormous private corporations. The only sense in which capitalism is 'controlled' is that businesses must demonstrate loyalty to the Kremlin and the local bosses - otherwise its naked, brutal neo-liberalism of a sort most Europeans could never stomach, and one that is *hugely* unpopular in Russia.

To get an idea of just how business and government cooperate to destroy the Russian environment, and the difficulty citizens have in pushing back, look up the Khimki Forest protests over a plan to illegally hand over parts of the Moscow green belt to loggers.

[Sanku]

You know Johann, you would be far more believable if you had a single neutral link backing your say so's...

I am sure some one with your intellect would understand well.

[krisna]

x posting from geopolitical thread

Changing face of Russia-Pakistan ties

India will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken India's entanglement with the U.S. in its stride.

Last month's quadripartite summit of Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan hosted by President Dmitry Medvedev at the Black Sea resort, Sochi, must have made South Block strategists sit up

President Pervez Musharraf's visit to Moscow in 2003, first by a Pakistan leader in 33 years, helped to clear the air but failed to break the ice. Russia-Pakistan relations continued to be defined by Moscow's ties with India.

In another breakthrough for Pakistan, Mr. Medvedev in Sochi gave the green signal for an inaugural meeting of the Russian-Pakistani Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade and Economic and Scientific-Technological Cooperation in Islamabad this month.

Two main conclusions can be drawn from the Medvedev-Zardari meeting: the Russian-Pakistani dialogue has, for the first time, been promoted to the level of Presidents; and Moscow has overcome its reluctance to develop full-fledged relations with Islamabad.

The only taboo for Russia still is sale of weapons to Pakistan but its defence technologies have been trickling into Pakistan, mostly through third countries. Ukrainian main battle tanks, T-80, supplied to Pakistan in the 1990s, had Russian-built key systems and components. Following a “private” visit to Russia by Gen. Musharraf and an official visit by army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani last summer, Russia lifted its objections to the supply to Pakistan of Chinese JF-17 fighter planes powered by Russian RD-93 engines. Many years ago, Russia had sold Pakistan over 40 MI-171 transport helicopters of a non-military version.

What has made the Moscow turnaround is the realisation that seeing Islamabad as part of the region's problems does not help to advance the Russian goal of playing a bigger role in the region.

The format of four-way cooperation with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan should help Moscow prepare for the eventual pullback of the U.S.-led forces from Afghanistan: engage Pakistan, return to Afghanistan and tighten Russian hold over the former Soviet Central Asia.

Russia agreed to join two long-planned regional infrastructure projects that would create energy and transport corridors from Central Asia to Pakistan across Afghanistan.

One project, CASA-1000 (Central Asia-South Asia), involves the export of electricity from power-rich Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The other project is a motor road and a railway from Tajikistan to Pakistan across the Wakhan corridor in extreme northeast Afghanistan — a buffer the British created at the end of the 19th century between the Russian and British empires. The proposed transport link resurrecting the ancient Silk Road would be a strategic gain for the countries involved. Pakistan will receive direct access to the markets of Central Asia and Russia, while Tajikistan — and Russia — will get access to Pakistani ports. China will also stand to gain, as the road is likely to be linked with the Karakorum Highway connecting Pakistan with China's Xinjiang region.

Russia may become a donor of economic, social and military-political security for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan,” Chairman of the Russian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev said commenting on the Sochi summit.

In Sochi, Mr. Medvedev renewed Russia's offer to rebuild about 140 industrial and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan,

The deals may be worth over $1 billion, and may entail further Russian investments in Afghanistan's oil, gas and minerals. Russia's comeback will also encourage many of the 2,00,000 Soviet-educated Afghans, who fled the Taliban to Russia, to return to their homeland.

The U.S., which is crafting an exit strategy in Afghanistan, welcomed Russia's new role in the region.

India could theoretically gain from joint economic projects mooted by Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Some Russian analysts have even suggested that Russia might try to incorporate India in the new alliance. This possibility, however, looks highly remote given the current state of relations between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Unless New Delhi succeeds in turning around its relations with Islamabad, it will stand to lose in a big way when a new transport corridor links Pakistan with Central Asia.

The Sochi summit also dimmed India's hopes of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield, which India helped to renovate, but Indian presence there looks doubtful now in the context of the emerging Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan axis.

south block has to awaken from is slumber. the key again is the access to POK which can be immensely important.
Russia wants to control the central asia and take the initiative from china which has been laying pipelines all over central asia. the main bottleneck for Russia was pakistan. For pakistan also having Russia a friend is good along with china and uncle.
US wants Russian help to exit af pak. It would want Russia to help secure afghanisthan. By allowing in all 3 powers- Russia, china and US, India is effectively shut out of central asia.
How will GOI tackle this situation.

[ramana]

krisna, They are also hedging their bets as they see MMS take India into US orbit. After 1965 war, the FSU did the same and supported TSP for a while till Mrs IG came to power. Those were the doldrum years. LBS dead, a weak IG with Syndicate on rampage, Rupee devalued and a drought.