Afghanistan News & Discussion

[krithivas]

There are three possibilities:
1) The "Flood damage is 5x more than Tsunami and Haiti earthquake combined" is a Uncle Sam drumbeat cover to increase US hit rate on Telebunnies in Afgania; (and/or)
2) Paki Army routes to re-inforce Telebunnies in Afgan land is flood-clogged and making Telebunnies cannon fodder (just like NLI during Kargil war); (and/or)
3) Paki Army is pushing more Telebunnies into Afgan land using the "Flood damage is 5x more than Tsunami and Haiti earthquake combined" as cover.
Time will tell.

Petraeus Says Afghan Raids on Rebels Exceed Iraq Pace
By Viola Gienger -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-0 ... -pace.html
Finally the US appears to be getting something right .... Petraeus may be able to make real progress ... the big question is whether he will get political backing in Washington.

[CRamS]

X-post:
A refreshing sight

Of course, there is no scope for a military role for India. Nor is there any need of triumphalism vis-à-vis Pakistan, which will remain an influential player, thanks to the realities of geography, ethnicity, culture and history. But within these parameters, India can do much although it is a fine line to walk.

What is refreshing about getting a girl scout role for India in Afganisthan? Without any Indian teeth, TSP will gobble up the goodies India pumps in, and when necessary strategic depth will be invoked by first finishing off the Indian girl scouts in a heart beat.

[krisna]

Security stepped up at Kabul Bank

Armed police in pick-up trucks have been stationed outside the main branch of Kabul Bank as customers continue to withdraw money amid fears the Afghan bank may collapse.

The run on the bank began earlier this week after allegations of corruption and mismanagement, although officials have maintained the bank will not fail.

"While we are providing technical assistance to the Afghan government, no American taxpayer funds will be used to support Kabul Bank," Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin said.

Kabul Bank, Afghanistan's largest commercial bank, is reported to have run up huge debts that it cannot afford to pay.
Last week, newspaper reports said the bank's two top executives - chairman Sherkhan Farnood and chief executive Khalilullah Ferozi, who each own 28% of the bank's shares - had been replaced and Mr Farnood ordered to surrender $160m worth of property purchased in Dubai.
However, Mr Fitrat has said the men resigned voluntarily as new regulations did not permit shareholders to hold executive positions.

wonder how uncle will run without losing face.
even if bank collapses uncle has to pay for it. will have do it indirectly. Afghanisthan cannot be stabilised without strong financial backing either this bank or some other one.(among others).

[krisna]

US Army fascinated by Indian Sulabh toilets

Holding the charge of rebuilding of the war torn country, the US Army plans to construct 40 public toilet complexes linked with biogas digester application, a low cost toilet model designed and developed by the Sulabh International, founder of the NGO Bindeshwar Pathak said.

Sulabh International implemented five public toilets linked with biogas plants in Kabul in collaboration with the Kabul Municipality about three years ago. These plants were funded by India.

The NGO has been playing a key role in construction of public toilets in several countries including Afghanistan, South Africa, China, Bhutan, Nepal, Laos, Ethiopia and 10 other African countries. It has already constructed public toilets in some of these countries, Pathak added.

[abhishek_sharma]

Growing complexity of Afghan riddle

M.K. Bhadrakumar

http://www.hindu.com/2010/09/07/stories ... 901000.htm

[Mort Walker]

US Pastor in Florida declares "Burn A Koran" day on Sep. 11th. angers Muslims in Afghanistan.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le1697677/
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Afghanistan/bu ... d=11569820

[Philip]

Return of the Russians! Remember that great comedy film,"The Russians are Coming"? Well,the Russians are returning to Afghanistan says this report.This might be a smart move by the Russians,perhaps in concert with India, to also shore up the Karzai govt. and assist India's similar reconstruction activities in the country,preparing for the post-US situation and to prevent the Taliban and Pak from squatting in both Russia and India's backyard.A "coalition" of the willing nations who oppose a Taliban/Pak takeover might be slowly forming which might inlcude other northern states friends of Russia and India.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 72191.html

Twenty years after Soviet humiliation, Russia seeks a return to Afghanistan
Foreign Minister offers help with reconstruction in bid to quell unrest on doorstep. By Mary Dejevsky in Moscow

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 72191.html

Excerpts:

Russia is positioning itself for active reinvolvement in Afghanistan, the country's Foreign Minister indicated yesterday. Sergei Lavrov said his government wanted to offer Washington and Nato all the help it can to stabilise the war-wrecked country, short of sending troops.

In the most explicit statement yet of Moscow's desire to boost its influence in the former Cold War battleground, two decades after the humiliating withdrawal of its troops from Kabul, Mr Lavrov said: "We do not want to take any leading role but we want to help those who are already there, because we know how hard it is from our own sad experience. We want to help stabilise the situation. We would do anything short of military involvement".

Among the proposals Moscow has in mind, he said, is for Russian engineers to renovate some 140 infrastructure projects, including power stations, built during the Soviet occupation, assistance in repairing the key Salang tunnel, and provision of helicopters.

Speaking yesterday, Mr Lavrov said that Russia's desire to co-operate stemmed in part from its own "bitter experience" in the country, which cost more than 13,000 Soviet lives and was finally ended by Mikhail Gorbachev, who described the Soviet Union's 10-year occupation as "a bleeding wound".

But Russia has two other reasons for becoming more actively engaged with Afghanistan now. The first is its own national security. Once the US and Nato troops depart, Russia could face more lawlessness on its already troubled and exposed southern frontier. As Mr Lavrov pointed out, terrorism, drug trafficking and general lawlessness emanating from Afghanistan present problems for Russia, too.

The second is the general reorientation of Russian foreign policy. Two years after the war in Georgia, Russia is making a determined effort to show a friendlier and more co-operative face to the world. The signs have been multiplying for some time: the participation of foreign delegations at the May Victory Day parade in Moscow, the response to the death of the Polish President in the air crash near Katyn, and the muted reaction to the expulsion of Russian spies from the US in July.

Mr Lavrov's answers yesterday were distinguished by a whole new vocabulary, starting with the Russian for "soft power", and continuing with "pragmatism", "team work", "co-ordination" and "co-operation" – but always "on an equal footing".

In principle, Russia's first two reconstruction offers appear to have been accepted by the Americans, while the helicopters, to which the Russians would contribute one-seventh of the cost, are still under discussion. As in Iraq, a shortage of helicopters has been a continual complaint of Nato forces. Russia also permits the transit of Nato supplies for Afghanistan across Russian territory, upgrading a series of piecemeal agreements concluded with individual European countries. It has also recently concluded an agreement allowing Nato planes through Russian airspace, the official said.

While voicing the Russian desire to co-operate on Afghanistan and its sympathy with Nato allies and their difficulties, Mr Lavrov also had some criticism of the way reconstruction operations are drawn up and organised. He had the impression, he said, that the US "jealously guarded" its primacy in the decision-making and suggested that "broader perspectives" might be beneficial.

PS:The so-called US "Pastor" cannot under any circumstances call himself a representative of the Christian faith with his asinine call for "book burning",an ancient tradition practised by the blinkered,bigoted,barbarians of the Middle Ages to this day.One of the problems with Christianity today is the emergence of the evangelical groups who like mushrooms have sprouted up particularly in the US,spread to India,where so-called "Pastors" with little or no formal seminary education claim to be priests! In India these groups are often "family affairs",where a self-styled pastor (like the mushrooming tribe of Vastu consultants,I know of some who are post office employees,pest control salesmen,sanitaryware salesmen,etc!) and his relatives set up a "church" and go about their busines of prosletysing and very often money gathering.This so-called p[astor should be arrested by US authorities for spreading religious and communal hatred.

[SSridhar]

Growing complexity of Afghan riddle - M.K. Bhadrakumar

From the above well-written op-ed,

In the interregnum between the London conference and the Loya Jirga, the U.S. and Pakistan virtually sabotaged Mr. Karzai's “reintegration” plan when in a joint operation by the ISI and the CIA in Karachi, the number 2 in the Taliban's Quetta Shura, Mullah Baradar, was detained. . . .Effectively, Mr. Karzai has been left with the virtually impossible choice of negotiating with the Taliban through the Pakistani military leadership and under American watch. . . . He {Gen. Kayani} lost no time proposing that a serious reconciliation process should involve the Haqqani group within the Taliban leadership

It is very clear that while the US is doing everything to cut Karzai down to the size that the Americans want, the Pakistanis are using the golden opportunity to re-establish the strategic depth (if not immediately), insert themselves as the arbiters in Afghan affairs, and deny any space for India in Afghanistan at all. In the process, Pakistan also wants to refurbish its battererd image of 'running with the hares and hunting with the hounds'.

Though Pakistan wanted to make the arrests of Baradar and his colleagues appear as a reversal of its policies regarding protection of certain Taliban groups for eventual use after the NATO and American forces left the region, it was clear that these commanders were guilty of crossing Pakistan Army’s red lines and nothing more substantial needed to be read into that. Pakistan wanted to control the dialogue process between its trusted Taliban and the Karzai government. On June 24, 2010, the New York Times reported that the Pakistanis were offering to mediate a power-sharing agreement with Sirajuddin Haqqani. A few days later the Middle-Eastern Al Jazeera, which had broken many authentic news about Al Qaeda earlier, dramatically announced that Sirajuddin Haqqani, accompanied by the Pakistani COAS Gen. Kayani and the ISI Chief Shuja Pasha, had already met the Afghan President Karzai in his Kabul Palace. A few days later, the US President Barack Obama, at the G-20 meeting in Toronto in June 2010, praised the efforts of Pakistan to find a political settlement for the Afghan crisis. Refusing to directly comment, so as to give a false appearance of being a party disinterested and aloof, on the meeting between Haqqani and Karzai, he said, “I think it’s too early to tell. I think we have to view these efforts with skepticism but also with openness”. The Taliban, sensing desperation among the US & NATO forces, increased their attacks on the Americans with July, 2010 turning out to be the deadliest month until then in the entire Afghan operation with 63 American servicemen dying, eclipsing the previous month’s toll of 60 Americans. The arrests also coincided with the two-day Strategic Dialogue in Washington between Pakistan and the US on March 24 & 25, 2010. Predictably, Pakistan made its request to the US to ‘protect its interests’ in Afghanistan and eliminate India’s influence which Pakistan considered as threatening to its security. The June, 2010 replacement of the powerful Afghan intelligence chief Amarullah Saleh and the Interior Minister Hanif Atmar, indirectly strengthened the Pakistani hands because they were bitter foes of the ISI’s machinations in their country. The frequency of visits to Kabul by the Pakistani COAS, Gen. Kayani, indicated mediatory efforts between Haqqani and Mullah Omar on the one hand and the Kabul Government on the other hand. The US has also completely toned down its demand for Pakistani action in North Waziristan, from where Haqqani operates, and left it to the choice of the PA to determine the time, place and pace of operation. The drones are also targetting very carfelly in North Waziristan eliminating mostly troublesome Pakistani or Al Qaeda operatives rather than the members of the Haqqani group.

[Pratyush]

US Pastor in Florida declares "Burn A Koran" day on Sep. 11th. angers Muslims in Afghanistan.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le1697677/
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Afghanistan/bu ... d=11569820

Who wants to take a bet, that he will be made to meet his 72 by a ROPER.

[Sanjay M]

The sexually abused dancing boys of Afghanistan(BBC)

[krisna]

U.K. Envoy to Afghanistan Resigns

Britain's outspoken special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan has quit his post, the Foreign Office said Wednesday.

In 2008, a French newspaper quoted the then-ambassador as saying that Afghanistan might best be "governed by an acceptable dictator." He was once also quoted as saying the war in Afghanistan was doomed to fail.

[abhishek_sharma]

A Plan B for Afghanistan

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... fghanistan

Emphasize power-sharing and political inclusion.

Downsize and eventually end military operations in southern Afghanistan, and reduce the U.S. military footprint.

Focus security efforts on al Qaeda and domestic security.

Encourage economic development.

Engage regional and global stakeholders in a diplomatic effort designed to guarantee Afghan neutrality and foster regional stability.

[SSridhar]

Taliban close to victory: Mullah Omar

In an end-of-Ramadan message posted on jihadist websites and relayed by the Site Intelligence Group on Wednesday, Mullah Omar also said the Americans and their allies will soon leave the country. He urged his fighters to adhere to his code of conduct and avoid harming civilians - instructions US commanders say the Taliban frequently ignore.

"The victory of our Islamic nation over the invading infidels is now imminent and the driving force behind this is the belief in the help of Allah and unity among ourselves," Mullah Omar said. "In the time to come, we will try to establish an Islamic, independent, perfect and strong system."

In remarks directed to the American people, he said the US military had failed to achieve its objectives after nearly nine years.

"You should know that your rulers have continuously told you lies since the beginning of the aggression on Afghanistan until this very day. They have wasted hundreds of billion of dollars of your tax money in the shape of financial expenditures and your manpower in Afghanistan and have still been wasting them," he said.

"Therefore, they should abandon their headlong stubborn policy. Otherwise, the Americans will themselves face humiliation and disgrace before any one else does that."

[krisna]

A Plan B for Afghanistan

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... fghanistan

Emphasize power-sharing and political inclusion.

Downsize and eventually end military operations in southern Afghanistan, and reduce the U.S. military footprint.

Focus security efforts on al Qaeda and domestic security.

Encourage economic development.

Engage regional and global stakeholders in a diplomatic effort designed to guarantee Afghan neutrality and foster regional stability.

Study urges US to scale back Afghan troops, goals
There's another side to Obama's COIN

The United States should scale back troops and goals in Afghanistan as its military campaign has backfired and boosted the Taliban, according to a study billed as a Plan B for President Barack Obama.
The report by nearly 50 scholars and policymakers states bluntly that the United States does not need to defeat the Taliban, describing it as a movement with local goals that is unlikely to regain control of Afghanistan.
Instead, the study said the United States has only two vital interests in the region -- 1)preventing Afghanistan from regressing into a haven for Al-Qaeda extremists and 2)ensuring the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

The study called on Obama to go ahead or even speed up the July 2011 deadline to begin pulling some of the nearly 100,000 US troops out of Afghanistan, eventually ending all operations in the Pashtun-dominated South.

n a new report released on Wednesday,(afghanisthan study group) a bipartisan group of three dozen former senior officials, academics, and policy analysts argued that the administration's ambitious "nation-building" efforts in Afghanistan were costing too much in US blood and treasure and that, in any event, "prospects for success are dim".

the "Afghanistan Study Group", which also urged intensified efforts to reach a negotiated solution with the Pashtun-based Taliban, echoed many of the points made in the latest strategic survey that was released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London on Tuesday

The administration has been split for some time. The so-called COINistas have argued for a major "nation-building" effort combined with a military campaign directed against the Taliban that they depict as inseparable from al-Qaeda. Others within the administration, reportedly led by Vice President Joseph Biden, have argued for a less ambitious counter-terrorism campaign (CT) aimed more narrowly against al-Qaeda on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border.

"We've been creating enemies faster than friends," noted Paul Pillar, who served as the US Central Intelligence Agency's national intelligence officer for the Middle East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005, at the report's release at the New America Foundation (NAF). Complaining of a "disconnect" between the conduct of the war and the US aim of destroying and disabling al-Qaeda, he described the US intervention in Afghanistan as "a nine-year-long mission creep".

Several scholars who worked on the Afghanistan Study Group declined to sign it, some saying it downplayed a real threat from Taliban or did not pay enough attention to neighboring Pakistan.

alls not well with the report
who signed the report among others who did not-

Besides Pillar, other signers of the report included Gordon Adams, a top White House budget official for national security under the Bill Clinton administration who is currently with the Stimson Center; Steve Clemons, the head of NAF's American Security program; Patrick Cronin, a senior adviser at the Center for a New American Security; W Patrick Lang, who served as the top Middle East/South Asia officer in the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency during the 1990s; Selig Harrison, an Afghan specialist at the Center for International Policy; and Stephen Walt, a Harvard University scholar considered a leader of the "realist" school of international relations.

Selig harrison was the one who wrote about PLA troops in POK

wondering about the time frame that ombaba took for withdrawal,
1) is the advice from his VP Biden
2) later the troop surge according to Petraeus.
lot of chai biskoot sessions now in senate now.
some confusion is going on- well with elections around the corner at 2011-12,

[ramana]

Afghanistan Study Group Report released today:

http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/Ne ... report.pdf

print and read.

[ramana]

Afghanistan Study Group Report released today:

http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/Ne ... report.pdf

print and read.

So slowly the moves are afoot to disengage. Experts are being brought to bolster the decision. The non-signatures are by dissenters who havent come oout and said what is it they are dissenting.

India now needs to look at Af-Pak and see how it can further its interests. The above report is similar to Blackwill formulation of leaving S Afg to Pashtuns and keep presence in Kabul to hedge for AlQ resurgence.

BTW read my last year formulation in Nov 2009 and re-posted in below. They come up with almost same ideas but are not there fully.


http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 95#p834895

[Prem]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html
Voters Support War in Afghanistan, Fault Obama on Economy, Poll Shows

A majority of Americans continue to support the war in Afghanistan and believe the threat of defeating terrorism there is worth fighting - and possibly dying - for, according to a new poll by Quinnipiac University.
The poll, conducted from August 31 - September 7, indicates that despite increased casualties, Americans approve of President Obama's military actions in Afghanistan and do not perceive the conflict as "another Vietnam" - although 55 percent of those polled believe the United States will be unsuccessful in its efforts to eliminate terrorist threats there, and 65 percent support the proposed withdrawal of troops next July.

[Prem]

Top US intel chief in Afghan leaving for new post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 03126.html
Exodus !!

KABUL, Afghanistan -- The top U.S. and NATO intelligence officer in Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Michael Flynn, is moving to a senior intelligence job in Washington, two defense officials said Thursday. Army spokesman Col. Thomas Collins confirmed Flynn would be taking up a new post but would not specify it because the move has not yet been approved by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
During Flynn's tenure here, he produced a controversial report entitled "Fixing Intelligence," which criticized the intelligence gathering structure in Afghanistan. In doing so, he went outside Defense channels to publish the report with the Center for a New American Security, a U.S. think tank.
The report criticized military intelligence gathering here as too intent on targeting militants, with little attention given to mapping the economic and social data Flynn said was needed to mount an effective counterinsurgency strategy. Counterinsurgency doctrine requires that after troops take territory, they hold it, build infrastructure on it that serves the local population, and then turn the area over to a working system of government. Flynn has since reorganized intelligence collection in the past eight months to map social, political and economic structures in many of Afghanistan's contested provinces.

[Raghavendra]

For ailing Afghan kids, a healing touch from India http://www.deccanherald.com/content/958 ... aling.html

Quietly, India has been helping mend Afghan hearts. With hundreds of children in war-torn Afghanistan dying of congenital heart disease every year, many are now coming here for inexpensive treatment, thanks to a collaborative venture.

"Hundreds of children in Afghanistan lose their lives every year to complications arising from congenital heart defects. There is little or no medical infrastructure in place and very few cases are detected early, much less cured," Salim Bahramand, general health director in the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS), told IANS here.

For the past few months, Bahramand has been working closely with the Max India Foundation to treat Afghan children affected by this fatal heart problem. Together they have successfully treated 35 Afghan children and plan to expand the programme to treat, on a monthly basis, 30 Afghan patients from all the 35 provinces of Afghanistan.

Bahramand with his team has compiled a list of 2,200 patients, mostly children from newborns to 11-year-olds, suffering from these heart complications, in Afghanistan.

Based on the number in the waiting list and the severity of the ailment, he sends them to Rehman Hospital in Pakistan or the Max Hospital in south Delhi's Saket area.

Doctor Viresh Mahajan, head of department of paediatric cardiology in Max Hospital, who spearheaded this project with Bahramand, said: "One factor responsible for the high rate of this disease is the prevalent custom of consanguineous marriage."

The disease being strongly hereditary in nature, the death toll rises as first cousins after marriage pass the genes on to their offspring.

Shabnam, 6, was suffering from high lung pressure due to her heart ailment and in six more months would have suffered a complete lung failure. She was flown in from her hometown in Kabul a week ago and given treatment.

"Doctor Mahajan has told me that she's in a stable condition now, and within a couple of days, will resume a normal childhood. I cannot thank him enough," said her father Mir Wais, 36, a cartpuller in Kabul.

Just out of the intensive care unit (ICU), Muzdha, 7, welcomes visitors with a faint smile. "The case of Muzdha is quite extraordinary," Bahramand said.

"She was suffering from a complex cyanotic heart problem with which less than 30 percent of the children live up to be 7. Most doctors and experts had given up on her. Still under observation, she's received the treatment well and is now expected to live a healthy life in her hometown of Mazar-e-Sharif," said Bahramand.

Hari Boolchandani, head of International Patient Services in Max Healthcare, told IANS that the cost of treatment is a major factor prompting patients' families to come to India.

He said an American hospital takes $100,000 to treat these heart complications while in South Africa it costs around $30,000. The same operation in India, with one of the highest success rates of 97.5-98 percent, costs around $4,500-5,000.

The cost of Afghan patient's airfare, surgery and lodging is borne by ARCS and the Max India Foundation together.

One reason for high mortality rate in Aghanistan, Bahramand said, was the absence of proper equipment for fetal cardiography, a scan through which physical complications in the foetus can be detected early.

"During cardiography, which may be carried out when the baby is 16-17 weeks old, if complications are detected early, which may put the life of the child and its mother in peril in later stages, the doctors usually advise termination of pregnancy. This operation helps in containing child mortality rates to a great extent," said Mahajan.

Mahajan and Bahramand are jointly working to train manpower in Afghanistan to attend to immediate, minor cases.

"Purchasing equipments isn't the main challenge here, nor is setting up the facility. The challenge is to produce trained and qualified doctors who're capable of attending to these cases in their home so that their dependency on us is reduced, and they become better equipped to fight this battle on their own," said Mahajan.

"Currently, Afghan patients constitute a major chunk of international patients visiting Delhi, and till political stability is established there, we expect the numbers to increase," Boolchandani told IANS.

ARCS is a non-profit organisation working for the people of Afghanistan on the same lines of the American or Indian Red Cross societies.

Apart from Shubnum and Muzdha, Parwan, four months old, Mina, 3 years, and Miwand, 7, who were suffering from lethal complications like a hole in the heart to a leaking valve in the heart, have found new life thanks to this collaborative effort.

[Pranav]

Exit Is A Smarter Strategy
KANTI BAJPAI, Sep 13, 2010, 12.00am IST

Ten years on, the US should consider pulling out of Afghanistan. It would probably be better for the US to withdraw as quickly as possible and turn its attention to its internal problems .... Taliban rule in Afghanistan may be more palatable this time round.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 541291.cms

Apparently, the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and the non-Talib Pustuns, who collectively make up a majority of Afghanistan's population, don't seem to count for much in Bajpai's world.

It's true though, that India would be ill-advised to rely on the assumption that the US wants to save the Afghans from the ISI.

[Pranav]

Pakistani Insurgent Group Expands in Afghanistan

There was nothing unfamiliar about last month's hours-long gun battle between Afghan security forces and insurgents in Nuristan province — except the identity of some of the militants. Of the 40 or so fighters killed, Gen. Mohammad Zaman Mahmoodzai, head of Afghanistan's border security force, says about a quarter had carried documents implicating them as members of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based outfit better known for its role in the Kashmir insurgency and the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.

The general claims that recent months have seen a steady increase of violent clashes in the east that have yielded a higher ratio of Pakistanis and other foreigners among the insurgent casualties. That, he says, is proof of the nominally Kashmir-oriented group's growing involvement in Afghanistan. The trend is confirmed by U.S. military officials, who say that well-trained LeT fighters are bringing deadlier tools and tactics to the war's second-fiercest front.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 27,00.html

[shyamd]

If there is a split, what guarentee is there that North Afghanistan will not have terror attacks or an "invasion" J&K style?

If I was a taliban commander (TSPA) I would say the US (the world superpower) has just knelt before me, I can continue to put them under pressure, enough to kick them out. It doesn't cost me much.

I think Obama is in a very tough position - Party and votes count too, re-election perhaps..

[krisna]

Afghans suffer as food prices spiral upwards

Sky-rocketing food prices are threatening to cause misery in Afghanistan as the country returns to its normal routine after Eid-al-Fitr, the biggest religious festival in this Muslim-majority nation.

The landlocked country is heavily dependent on Pakistan for most of its essential goods and food items.

Mr Alokozai said recent forest fires in Russia, another big trading partner of Afghanistan, have also added to people's difficulties.
"Thousands of acres of standing crops were destroyed in the forest fires in Russia. Both Pakistan and Russia now have less to export. The shortage of commodities means higher prices."

[RajeshA]

Afghans suffer as food prices spiral upwards

Sky-rocketing food prices are threatening to cause misery in Afghanistan as the country returns to its normal routine after Eid-al-Fitr, the biggest religious festival in this Muslim-majority nation.

The landlocked country is heavily dependent on Pakistan for most of its essential goods and food items.

Mr Alokozai said recent forest fires in Russia, another big trading partner of Afghanistan, have also added to people's difficulties.
"Thousands of acres of standing crops were destroyed in the forest fires in Russia. Both Pakistan and Russia now have less to export. The shortage of commodities means higher prices."

Perhaps the Afghans should ask their protectors and well-wishers the Afghan Taliban to put pressure on their protectors and well-wishers the Pakistan Govt. to approve an export transit facility between India and Afghanistan.

If they still do not do it, Pakistan is responsible for the high food prices in Afghanistan, leading to malnutrition and hunger.

So do the Afghan Taliban have any influence over their handlers or are they just their pawns?

[Johann]

Withdrawing from S. & SE Afghanistan will reduce military casualties in the insurgency, but it means relying on drones and SF raids to manage the threat from global jihad, and over a *much* larger area.

It means that there will be more camps for recruits to attend, longer, more intensive courses, and that means more attackers like the Times Square bomber who will make it to their targets, and inevitably they will finally get one to go off.

The only way to cope with this threat is to massively expand the so-called 'manhattan' programme to anyone who visits the region, and not just those who are already there, and this will run in to the legal and moral problems of profiling. I don't know if Obama and his team hope to keep it secret, but if its going to come out I hope its while he's still in power. A Democratic administration like Obama's can probably handle the controversy better than a Republican one.

[Philip]

The West has made even more mistakes in Afghanistan than us, says Russian envoy to Kabul
Britain and America have made a string of strategic blunders which will delay any prospect of successfully withdrawing from Afghanistan, the Russian ambassador to Kabul has said

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Kabul.html

Xcpts:

By Ben Farmer in Kabul
11 Sep 2010

The Red Army lost some 15,000 troops fighting the Western-backed Mujahideen resistance .Andrey Avetisyan, a veteran Kabul diplomat, said talk of a handover to the Afghans was currently unrealistic because the coalition had failed to build the nation's forces or economy.

The rampant corruption riddling the administration was the West's fault for ploughing huge sums into badly-coordinated, opaque aid projects he said.

Moscow's envoy spoke as his country again seeks to assert influence by reviving up to 150 Soviet-era infrastructure and business ventures.
Russia intends to revive factories, irrigation schemes and road projects.
An estimated 1 million Afghans were killed and millions fled abroad during the Soviet Union's decade-long occupation. The Red Army lost some 15,000 troops fighting the Western-backed Mujahideen resistance.

Mr Avetisyan, who began his career in Kabul in the 1980s and speaks Dari and Pashtu, said the West had not learned from Soviet mistakes.
"They are repeating all of them and they are making new ones," he told The Sunday Telegraph.

Barack Obama has promised a gradual military withdrawal from July 2011, but Mr Avetisyan said Nato had "wasted" nine years not building an Afghan army to replace them.

He said: "Only now have people started to realise 'Oh, we must have someone to secure the country when we leave'.

"But it is not possible to do in several months, or years. If serious training of the Afghan army is started now, it will take in my opinion at least five years." "If the international community had started this several years ago, then now it would be realistic to talk about transition timetables and withdrawal." He said when the Soviets left in 1989, their ally Mohammad Najibullah remained in power for three years because he inherited a strong army and economy.

"For the last eight years, there have been no big projects, not infrastructure projects," he went on.

"A school here, a hospital there. When it is built people start asking 'Well where are the teachers and the doctors?' because no one thought about it before." The Afghan government was crippled by a shortage of able, trained civil servants. The new army was being trained "almost on the battlefield".

He said Western diplomats "listen politely" when Russia offered advice.

Russia is worried that an unstable Afghanistan could become a launch pad for Islamist militant attacks and wants to stem the heroin which kills 30,000 Russians annually.

Despite the death toll in the occupation, Mr Avetisyan said Kabul and Moscow remained "traditional partners".

"Russia has played a low profile role in the past eight or nine years and now it is becoming more active in Afghanistan," he said.

"Other people may go, but we will be here like neighbours." Dmitry Medvedev, Russian prime minister, met Hamid Karzai in Sochi last month as Afghanistan's neighbours jockey for influence before an eventual Nato withdrawal.

Russians are hoping to rebuild the strategic Salang road tunnel across the Hindu Khush with £55 million of American money.
.

[Lalmohan]

surely what is needed is to train a core of afghan officers to be the nucleus of the national army
a joint enterprise by IA and even Unkil, hosted in India and the US

[shyamd]

IOL on the new Afghan intel chief:
Amrullah was stripped of his position in July after a mortar attack on the presidential palace. 40 of his closest staff left with him. A Tajik from the north of the country, for the past six years Rahmatullah has been responsible for President Hamid Karzai’s personal security team. He has no experience in the intelligence field: Before taking charge of the president’s security, which was previously handled by US private security guards, he was a civil engineer for the UN High Commission for Refugees in Afghanistan. He will head a service made up essentially of former Communists trained by the KGB in the 1980s during the Soviet era.

[svinayak]

The rampant corruption riddling the administration was the West's fault for ploughing huge sums into badly-coordinated, opaque aid projects he said.

Barack Obama has promised a gradual military withdrawal from July 2011, but Mr Avetisyan said Nato had "wasted" nine years not building an Afghan army to replace them.

He said: "Only now have people started to realise 'Oh, we must have someone to secure the country when we leave'.

"For the last eight years, there have been no big projects, not infrastructure projects," he went on.

The question is why. What is the reason for a bad job in Afghanistan. Why the neglect and keeping the field open for Taliban to come again and Pakistan to take control of Taliban groups.

[Philip]

Another one agreeing with Ted Koppel who says that Osama has won,Irfan Hussein of the Dawn.

Law of unintended consequences By Irfan Husain
Saturday, 11 Sep, 2010

Americans walk amongst flags erected by students and staff from Pepperdine University in Malibu, who placed nearly 3000 flags in the ground to honor the victims of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York, on September 10, 2010. - Photo by AFP.

Nine years ago today, a friend rang me in Karachi and told me to turn my TV on immediately. In a live feed, the BBC was showing images of smoke billowing from one of the Twin Towers. A subdued voice told the world that a plane had slammed into the building. Minutes later, another airliner flew into the second tower.

From that day on — a day referred to simply as 9/11 — the world has changed for the worse. As details emerged about the attack on the Pentagon, as well as of another hijacked aircraft that was forced down by passengers, it became clear that we were witnessing the most horrendous single terrorist attack in history.

Any attempt to take stock of post-9/11 events runs the risk of bias: the atrocity provokes so much emotional response that it is hard to view them objectively. I remember all too well the conspiracy theories that flashed around the world on the Internet even before the bodies of the victims had been pulled out of the debris. Many of them are still with us.

Just the other day, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad stated that he wasn’t sure who was behind 9/11. Considering that Osama bin Laden has claimed credit for the attacks, it strikes me as odd that people who should know better are still pushing conspiracy theories long after details of the plot have been made public.

So here we are, nine years into the ‘war on terror’. After hundreds of billions of dollars spent and well over 100,000 dead, was it all worth it? Clearly, Islamic militancy is stronger today than it was in 2001. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have served to energise militants and radicalise a whole generation of young Muslims. Above all, US policies after 9/11 have turned much of the Islamic world against Washington.

True, there have been no major terrorist attacks on American soil over the last nine years. But was the cost worth the slightly enhanced security? In a few cases, it was the incompetence of the terrorists that saved lives, not the efforts of American intelligence agencies.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that Al Qaeda had limited resources, and is incapable of launching another attack on the scale of 9/11. What has happened since is that many extremist groups have tacked on the Al Qaeda label due to its leader’s appeal to radicals. In one sense, it is the American-led response to 9/11 that has served to increase the threat.

While other nations have faced sporadic threats and attacks, we in Pakistan have borne the brunt of jihadi terrorism. This is not to suggest — as many do — that this violence is a post-9/11 phenomenon.

We were victims of militancy earlier as jihadi groups, nurtured by our military establishment to further its agenda in Kashmir and Afghanistan broke out of control and committed mayhem. However, there is a quantum increase in the level of violence, with militant groups unleashing a vicious series of strikes against innocent men, women and children across Pakistan.

So was there anything we could have done differently to avert the fallout from 9/11? Musharraf has been heavily criticised for falling in line with Bush’s ‘with us or against us’ ultimatum. But in truth, he had very few options. The Americans were going to launch an attack on Afghanistan after Mullah Omar refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, and their jet fighters and missiles, launched from the fleet in the Arabian Sea, would have flown over our territory whether we liked it or not.

Obviously, we simply do not have the capability to withstand the might of the American military machine. To put things in context, American spending on defence is almost equal to that of the rest of the world put together.

Given this military imbalance, it was clearly prudent not to resist American demands for cooperation, whatever the ghairat brigade says. There is a limit on the price we should place on national honour. Others say Musharraf should have held out for more US aid, but this is just quibbling: militants would not have halted their onslaught us just because we had gouged some more money out of Washington.

Once we were allied to the Americans — albeit with major reservations and secret caveats — we were engaged in a battle we fought only half-heartedly for the first six years or so, allowing militants to re-arm and organise on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border.

With the war going badly, many Americans are now questioning whether this effort is worth the blood and treasure they have sunk into the enterprise. Initially, the war was waged to unseat the Taliban. But once this goal was swiftly achieved, the Americans got involved in creating a post-Taliban Afghanistan that would not be a breeding ground for Islamic terrorism that could threaten America and its overseas interests.

This expanded agenda has sucked the US into a quagmire. The reality is that Afghanistan was never a cohesive state where Kabul’s writ ran across the whole country. Cobbling together a viable modern state is something that is clearly beyond the capability of the United States. As this realisation sinks in, policymakers in Washington are trying to fashion a face-saving exit strategy that does not simply open the door for the Taliban to return to Kabul in triumph. Even this limited goal is proving beyond American means.

What happens when the Americans do pull out? Clearly, this retreat would be a disaster for the region. The Taliban will almost certainly help their cousins in Pakistan. The defeat of the world’s only superpower will greatly enhance their appeal and their influence. Jihadis from across the Muslim world will flock there, with major destabilising effects for Afghanistan’s neighbours.

Hiding in his cave, even Osama bin Laden must be surprised at the far-reaching effects of his attack on the United States nine years ago. He could scarcely have imagined that his enemy would have been so traumatised, and forced into two wars, endless expense and a curtailment of the rights of its citizens. But if there are any winners in this war without end, it is clearly Osama bin Laden

[RajeshA]

The question is why. What is the reason for a bad job in Afghanistan. Why the neglect and keeping the field open for Taliban to come again and Pakistan to take control of Taliban groups.

Are indecision, confusion, and stupidity not valid reasons?

[Carl_T]

Are indecision, confusion, and stupidity not valid reasons?

And starting new wars in other places to distract attention.

[ramana]

Maybe the idea was to corral the Taliban from Afghanistan inot the TSP badlands to re-group and re-train for original mission what ever that was? Recall Taliban were constituted/formed by Nasrullah Babar the Interior Minister in BB"s second coming.

[abhischekcc]

US did not have a exit plans for Iraq and Afghanistan because they did not want to exit. They expected to stay forever. But the cost has been so high that they have to cut loses and run with their tails between their legs.

They made no preparations for the time they would leave for this reason. US' testicular foreign policy has been busted, pun intended.

[SSridhar]

The question is why. What is the reason for a bad job in Afghanistan. Why the neglect and keeping the field open for Taliban to come again and Pakistan to take control of Taliban groups.

The Americans did not put enough boots on the ground in Afghanistan in the early stages. They wanted to attack them aerially. They also shifted their focus away from Afghanistan to Iraq foolishly. The Americans were emaciated in the Iraq fight and the tired American Army wants to go back home as quickly as possible today. They delayed striking a deal with the Northern Alliance, deferring to the sensitivities of the Pakistanis, and empowering them in the very early part of the attack. This allowed a lot of the Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives to escape and regroup. Secondly, they allowed the Afghan narcotic business to not only continue but also to flourish and reach greater heights. Year after year, the poppy production in Afghanistan was higher. The PA, the Taliban and the warlords ran unhindered operations that sustained the Taliban. Thirdly, the Pakistanis took the Americans to the cleaners with their perfidy. The sad part is that they continue to do so and the Americans are unable to unshackle themselves from the clutches of this cunning and seductive mistress. Today, the Talibans are speaking from a position of strength and the mighty US does not have much leeway for wriggling. This time around, the mujahideen have truly defeated a superpower on their own steam, unlike last time.

[Varoon Shekhar]

Did any of the Canadian/Canada based BRFites see the programme about Pakistan's flood disaster on TVO on Tuesday night? The part about the flood was OK, but when politics was discussed, Eric Margolis had to make his desultory comments about India, which were not as bad as one might have expected. But still lousy. He said that India is a poor country but has gone 'full tilt' into Afghanistan with $1 billion investment. None of the other ,more intelligent, broad minded panelists said anything on this score. Someone could have remarked "Yes, it is, what's wrong with that, India is doing good work which has been appreciated by the majority of the Afghan people and civilian Afghan government. And India has historic ties with the country; it's not an alien presence" To their credit, when Margolis mentioned that India's main focus and concern is Pakistan, the other panelists replied that India now considers itself to be in a higher league, and measures itself against China and other high growth countries.

[Lalmohan]

maro-goli is still receiving a lot of TLC from his pashtun boyfriends i see
dont worry, the mounties always get their man too

[SSridhar]

Afghanistan & OTA, Chennai

This passing-out parade will also be memorable for 18 gentlemen cadets from the Afghan National Army and two lady cadets from Lesotho who underwent training at OTA. Speaking to The Hindu after the ceremony, Ahmed Shahpoor Nooristani from the Nuristan province in Afghanistan, said “Back home there isn't enough military training facilities or instructors. This was a golden opportunity for us.” The men from various provinces, including Logar, Ghazi and Kandahar, who are alumni of Afghan Military School, will be heading to Kabul via Delhi on Saturday night to join their army as officers. Fourteen more Afghan cadets are undergoing training in OTA.

[RajeshA]

Afghanistan & OTA, Chennai

This passing-out parade will also be memorable for 18 gentlemen cadets from the Afghan National Army and two lady cadets from Lesotho who underwent training at OTA. Speaking to The Hindu after the ceremony, Ahmed Shahpoor Nooristani from the Nuristan province in Afghanistan, said “Back home there isn't enough military training facilities or instructors. This was a golden opportunity for us.” The men from various provinces, including Logar, Ghazi and Kandahar, who are alumni of Afghan Military School, will be heading to Kabul via Delhi on Saturday night to join their army as officers. Fourteen more Afghan cadets are undergoing training in OTA.

IMHO, I think India should allow people of other countries to serve in the Indian Armed Forces, just as the British Army allows Gurkhas, and US allows Green Card holding immigrants to serve in the US Armed Forces as non-commissioned officers, while it bars them for certain units like Navy SEALS and from certain countries hostile to USA except with special waivers.

We could allow this facility to all countries of SAARC except those hostile to India - which would allow Afghan, Nepali, Sri Lankan citizens etc. to serve in the Indian Armed Forces as soldiers. That way when they go back to their countries India would have a ready pool of military men, who could support India in some Indian Agenda or protect Indian infrastructure there. Like USA, one could also offer a road to Indian citizenship for say 5 years if service. Should Myanmar also join SAARC, it would give India an extra lever to influence the happenings there.

Afghans serving in the Indian Army would be a good way to ensure that Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan does not get out of hand.

This policy would also establish that India is the dominant military power in South Asia, and responsible for the security of the region.

Simply an idea! I don't know whether the Indian Military would appreciate the idea, or write it off as absurd.

[svinayak]

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/ ... -treasures

Saving Afghan Treasures
In the midst of the Afghan war, Indians have been conserving pre-Islamic art, Buddhist monuments and Mughal gardens, even tracing links back to the Bronze Age.
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BY Pramila N. Phatarphekar EMAIL AUTHOR(S)


A jangling phone shattered the cultivated silence in The British Museum’s office in London. A curator’s hand hovered over it, and then picked it up slowly. It was late 2001. Over the sound of howling jets came the voice of The Observer’s war correspondent in Afghanistan: “I’m calling from the Bagram airfield control tower. A squadron of stealth bombers is about to raze it. Your comments on Bagram’s significance?” Bagram, quite simply, was the site of the world’s greatest art treasures. And Naman Ahuja, curator of South Asian Sculpture, felt his blood run cold. Buried deep was a shard of personal history—both his grandparents were born in Bannu, Afghanistan. Those bombers were about to obliterate a country where “India has had a civilisational stake which dates back to the Bronze Age”.

Just north of Kabul, Bagram was the summer capital of the Kushan Empire that traced an arc up to Mathura (now in Uttar Pradesh) during 1st–3rd century CE. Spices and textiles used to cross between Mathura and Bagram, even as spirituality hitchhiked unseen along this Silk Route. It’s what gave us Gandharan art that’s endured for millennia. Long before Afghans held AK-47s, some 2,000 years ago, their hands cradled delicate Roman glass goblets. In the 1930s, French archaeologists found an entire stash of these world treasures, ready for shipping in a merchant’s strong room, along with Indian ivory thrones carved with Buddhist Jataka Tales. It was priceless evidence of how Bagram’s cosmopolitan trade was flourishing as Rome crumbled. “Archaeologists rarely unearth objects as fragile as glass, ivory and jewellery,” says Ahuja. Yet, Bagram, home of spectacular antiquity, could do nothing to stop itself being battered by the coalition of the war-willing. Again.

Since 1979, Afghanistan’s most enduring sound has been the boom of war. From Russian missiles and Talibani rocket launchers to Nato’s attack drones, continual combat for 30 years has ravaged homes down to their last mud-brick. For ordinary Afghans who’ve grown up on conflict, peace is an idea that’s lobbed about as carelessly as a grenade. Bread, clothes and shelter are desperately needed. But holistic healing might require memories. So, beyond the $662 million of reconstruction aid, India is making a discreet effort to conserve Afghanistan’s heritage. Before and during the recent wars, Indian hands have been conserving pre-Islamic art, Buddhist monuments, Mughal gardens and mosques, all in a land now thought to be the Ground Zero of Fanaticism.

It was back in 1971 that the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) did its restoration job on the Buddhas of our distant suburbias, so to speak: Bamiyan. Alongside excavations of nearby pilgrim caves, conserving the towering twin 5th century sandstone sculptures was part of “a challenge thrown to us by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi”, in the words of Balbir Singh, an ASI engineer who spent five years in Bamiyan (which means ‘coloured’ in Sanskrit).