*Copying posts over from the US & PRC thread.*
China, then, has three possible future paths. In the first, it continues to grow at astronomical rates indefinitely. No country has ever done that, and China is not likely to be an exception. The extraordinary growth of the past thirty years has created huge imbalances and inefficiencies in China’s economy that will have to be corrected. At some point China will have to go through the kind of wrenching readjustment that the rest of Asia already has undergone.
A second possible path is the recentralization of China, where the conflicting interests that will emerge and compete following an economic slowdown are controlled by a strong central government that imposes order and restricts the regions’ room to maneuver. That scenario is more probable than the first, but the fact that the apparatus of the central government is filled with people whose own interests oppose centralization would make this difficult to pull off. The government can’t necessarily rely on its own people to enforce the rules. Nationalism is the only tool they have to hold things together.
A third possibility is that under the stress of an economic downturn, China fragments along traditional regional lines, while the central government weakens and becomes less powerful. Traditionally, this is a more plausible scenario in China—and one that will benefit the wealthier classes as well as foreign investors. It will leave China in the position it was in prior to Mao, with regional competition and perhaps even conflict and a central government struggling to maintain control. If we accept the fact that China’s economy will have to undergo a readjustment at some point, and that this will generate serious tension, as it would in any country, then this third outcome fits most closely with reality and with Chinese history.
Agree on the overarching point, China's economy will go through periods of retrenchment.. it's happened before('98-'99 Asian Flu, last year) and they have managed to control it by massive stimulus' but there's another path.. one very troubling that their leadership is likely to pursue. The issue is not China itself, it is the beast within it, the CPC which is calling the shots. And their priorities are the success of the CPC and the success of China, in that order.
So, in case a large enough economic shock hits the country they will do what is best for the CPC first.. which is retaining control of the country and population by any means possible. Nationalism is the easiest lever for them to pull, and the best way to do that is to present an external threat to focus the people on.. whether this is India/SK/Japan remains to be seen. They've been moving strategically against India for several decades now but India has a strategic N. deterrent which might cause them to pause, although they could gamble(and probably rightly) that as long as they didn't go N. India wouldn't either. So a glorious battle for them to re-claim Arunachal or to 'defend' an 'all weather' friend in Paki's could be sold, a few thousand or million dead while the party is kept in power is a small price for them. This is why India needs to step up Agni program to a faster speed and highly publicize
dozens of missiles pointed at Beijing so they get a VERY CLEAR MESSAGE. Unfortunately this won't happen for a few years at the current pace(2015, I believe) so the very real possibility of Chinese attack exists between now and then.
India needs to get aggressive, and not just diplomatically. Diplomacy is 1 leg in the triumvirate, combined with intelligence and economic maneuvering that has to happen so that strategic military aims can be met.
Towards this end India needs to keep the target the CPC and not the Chinese state as a whole, like Arjuna keep the focus on the eye and let the arrow(s) fly. I was heartened today to see MS finally speak the plain truth.. however couched,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 508868.cms He is a great economic mind and PM but he's not the most strategically and militarily minded with regards to countering moves forcefully. That is what China respects, nothing else.. see the following, after getting smacked by the US a bit at ASEAN and shown the reality with a N. submarine they are all conciliatory again,
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/08/world ... .html?_r=1. Remember they are like a snake, following Sun-Tzu, they will be silent and sneaky until they feel they are in position for a deadly blow.
So, what pain points can India develop to hamstring the CPC and speed its demise, or at the least shift the focus from our shores.
Some ideas:
1. As mentioned, speed Agni V development and let slip a few dozen are pointed at Beijing. MAD will be established they will have no real option but to come to the table or continue sub-N. tit-for-tat indefinitely.
2. Encourage closer defence partnerships with major ASEAN players, Japan, SoKo, Australia, Vietnam. Get into partnerships with each where greater advanced technology from them can be shared with India and we can provide manpower/common entry to global markets. See BrahMos program for blueprint.. Also, Pak-Fa/FGFA can be used as enticement and Tejas can be provided short term. This can help build our supply lines faster as well, as infrastructure would have a larger number of units to be amortized around.
3. Incite and magnify disagreements between Japan/SoKo and China using 'covert assets'.
4. Encourage and support separatist/personal freedom movements within China using 'covert assets'.
5. Highlight corruption and failures of CPC by feeding Indian/Global media with choice stories, especially those that reflect poorly in the west and in areas of increasing Chinese influence such as Africa/Latin America.
6. Tibet.. be smart about plausible deniability. The Chinese have done enough hiding behind there's that it must be done.
7. Food security is a huge issue for them.. add a duty on foodstuffs shipped to China.
8. Same as #7 for other raw materials.
9. Establish full relations with Taiwan(this is just an annoyance.. long-term the Taiwanese themselves are China oriented, but it's worth it just to give the CPC some heartburn.
Some of the more adventurously minded steps.. to show we have some teeth, these have risks associated with them but they establish push back from our side and show we are not to be pushed around.
A. Encourage the monarchy of Nepal to accede to India, or failing that.. should a civil war present itself due to political gridlock.. send 100K peacekeepers there and ensure a India friendly government is in place. China is baldly and badly playing a dangerous game here and must be countered forcefully.
B. At next terrorist incitement from Pakis, take Giligit-Baltistan/Northern Areas from Pak. Ensure that it has no common border remaining between them.
C. Enter into a 'nuclear support' agreement with SoKo/Vietnam where India would be obligated to respond should they be attacked by a nuclear weapon as long as they remain non-nuclear. As an aside, no.. 'giving' N. weapons to any country is not an option.. if done then it will cause huge problems internationally vis-a-vis US, EU, etc. Would not be a smart move.
I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?