Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RamaY]

It is very puzzling that India invited Afghanistan in to SAARC but not Myanmar. That is a must do item in the next year or so!

Few things India can do
- Open $B Lines of Credit
- Open branches of IIT/IIMS/IIM in these nations
- Export Pinaka/Arjun/Akash/LCAs at-cost basis
- The above suggestion by RajeshA ji
- Inter-connected Tourism
- Inter-connected Infra projects

[Pratyush]

Ramya,

Second that, but that depends on which GOI is ruling Delhi( Pragmatic / Idealist ). Lets hope that over the next few years the pragmatic side rules.

[RajeshA]

RajeshA,

It is some thing that can be tried on, perhaps on the lines of the Indian foreign legion. Controlled by the MOD and the IA but separate from the IA. Where any non Indian can join to serve the cause of the Indian nation. at the time of discharge they get an option of becoming an Indian citizen of returning to the native society.

I can't really assess which format would be best for serving in Indian Armed Forces. I'd leave that to the military experts and see what their objections would be, and how they will feel comfortable.

I would simply add to that that a separate Foreign Legion could have some drawbacks. If it is used, many would say that one is using them (the foreigners serving in it) as cannon fodder, and some would latch on to such propaganda. Another aspect is that the non-Indians serving in the Indian Military should start feeling Indian and identifying themselves with India so camaraderie with fellow Indian soldiers is very important.

Few things India can do
<snip>
- Open branches of IIT/IIMS/IIM in these nations

We should do both: establish branches of these institutions in these nations, but also invite many Students from these nations to India.

One project started was the: South Asian University. Much more is possible. Our effort should be to have the elites of these countries, all educated in India or by Indian academic institutions.

[TonyMontana]

Chinks in the Chinese Armor
The Middle Kingdom has 4 main pillars

1. National Consolidation under One Identity and One State Authority
2. Strong Centralization of Political Authority
3. Economic, Technological and Military Strength
4. Pro-Active and Aggressive Foreign Policy & Neutralization of Rivals

A couple of observation on your analysis. You seems to suggest that once Taiwan achieves independence, then PRC will fall like a house of cards. I think this is wishful thinking. Looking at the current trends in PRC-Taiwan relations, I would say they are closer now then they ever was. Does it mean they will be united soon? Probably not. But it does indicate that Status Quo is more likely then Independence.

Another more general observation, a lot of Indian strategy discussed on BRF seems to revolve around how to make China fail. I guess the logic is that once China fails, then India will have the space to become a power. But to me India will be served better by figuring out ways to to make India strong instead. China didn't become what she is today by making anyone else fail. She got there by self-cultivation. You don't win a race by tripping the other runner, you win by making yourself run faster. You give the PRC too much credit if you think the PRC can stop India. Like China, India grows and declines because of Indians. To say that China is the source of your problem, and that once China fails, all your problems will be gone is...naive.

Instead of trying to destroy China's national identity, why not focus on how to create a unifing national identity for India? I think by focusing on how to make China weak, you'll die an old man, filled with regrett, before India is strong again. Which I think is what you really want.

[Atri]

Tony Montana ji,

If China leaves India alone in subcontinent (from AFG to Myanmar and Singapore) with neutral Tibet in between as buffer without any mischief-mongering in subcontinent and Indian Ocean Region, there are hardly any grievances that India has with China. This is what was expected before 1962 and subsequent backstabbing happened which has resulted in all the bad-blood. Throughout History, India and China has respected and cooperated with each other with understanding each other's spheres of influence. Revert back to that understanding and all problems vanish. Asia and world are big enough for both India and China to grow.

I agree with your views if this condition is fulfilled. If PRC tries to (which it does) pin-prick India not only by fostering unrest in her neighbourhood by also directly funding troubles inside her territory, it is just that PRC receives such response. I don't think anyone in GOI establishment is as inclined and explicit as BRFites are on paying PRC back in its own coin. Think of trouble it will foster when core GOI establishment starts expressing and acting upon what BRFites have been expressing. Actions of PRC are bringing that day closer. And when it happens I assure you, that ain't gonna be pleasant for nobody.

I wonder why this sentiment is troubling you, when you understand the concept of Karma.

[TonyMontana]

I wonder why this sentiment is troubling you, when you understand the concept of Karma.

It is interesting that you brought up Karma. I understand what you're trying to say. But, a question that Indians on BRF need to ask themselves is what exactly is the goal?

Is the end goal:

(A) A strong and prosperous India

or

(B) Revenge against China

Because I've seen a lot of strategies that revolves around B more than A. Once you understand what it is that you want, you can start formulating solutions. Things that works for B don't always helps A.

[Manishw]

End goal is
A. A strong and prosperous India.
B. Eliminating or cutting down to size all threats to the above objective and PRC is one of the major ones.

[Bade]

Tony, what does a "strong and prosperous" India mean and what are the strategic paths that you recommend for achieving it, assuming that path B is not a recommended one.

[RajeshA]

Chinks in the Chinese Armor
The Middle Kingdom has 4 main pillars

1. National Consolidation under One Identity and One State Authority
2. Strong Centralization of Political Authority
3. Economic, Technological and Military Strength
4. Pro-Active and Aggressive Foreign Policy & Neutralization of Rivals

A couple of observation on your analysis. You seems to suggest that once Taiwan achieves independence, then PRC will fall like a house of cards. I think this is wishful thinking. Looking at the current trends in PRC-Taiwan relations, I would say they are closer now then they ever was. Does it mean they will be united soon? Probably not. But it does indicate that Status Quo is more likely then Independence.

No I am not saying PRC will fall like a house of cards. By no means. The Results of National Consolidation Doctrines or its failures are felt a long time after they have been written down and implemented. China could however lose an important pillars of national consolidation though.

Another more general observation, a lot of Indian strategy discussed on BRF seems to revolve around how to make China fail. I guess the logic is that once China fails, then India will have the space to become a power. But to me India will be served better by figuring out ways to to make India strong instead. China didn't become what she is today by making anyone else fail. She got there by self-cultivation. You don't win a race by tripping the other runner, you win by making yourself run faster. You give the PRC too much credit if you think the PRC can stop India. Like China, India grows and declines because of Indians. To say that China is the source of your problem, and that once China fails, all your problems will be gone is...naive.

Instead of trying to destroy China's national identity, why not focus on how to create a unifing national identity for India? I think by focusing on how to make China weak, you'll die an old man, filled with regret, before India is strong again. Which I think is what you really want.

TonyMontana ji,
I sincerely believe you give sane advice, when you we should concentrate on making India strong. Your advice about cooperation between China and India is also good. We should have been cooperating on improving the lot of our people together. And I do wish such a proposition would have been possible.

"China didn't become what she is today by making anyone else fail." is a statement which has no basis in truth. One of the most benign examples is in the field of economics. Simply by concentrating so much manufacturing capacity in its own hands, monopolization of raw materials (e.g. rare earth metals), dumping cheap goods in the world, is making most of the developing world fail. Of course, China would not say that that is with a mala fide intent towards others, just some healthy self-interests. That position is understandable but does not make matters better for the developing world.

But let's stick to geopolitics. China has been in a proxy² war with India for a long time now, and has tried to box India in in South Asia. This is clear from China's actions and shows how China views India.

• Taking away the buffer between India and China. Disregard for India's interests in keeping the buffer.
• Support to several insurgencies in the North East.
• Nuclearization of Pakistan.
• Propping up an aggressive Pakistani mentality against India after the 1965 war, immune to reconciliation and peace.
• Visible support to Pakistan in Pakistan's Terrorist Attacks in India (visible in the UNSC)
• Proxy support to the Maoists active in India
• Prolonging border disputes with India, which can only mean, that China expects India to weaken and to later bite off far bigger territories off off India. Making claims on Arunachal Pradesh.
• Not accepting India's claims on J&K, by occupying Aksai Chin, occupying Shaksgam Valley, withholding visa for Army man who served in J&K, calling PoK Northern Pakistan, Heavy infiltration into Gilgit-Baltistan.
• Stationing of Nuclear Missiles in Tibet directed at India.
• Not opening the Indo-Tibetan border for Border Trade.

All the above are signs of both a proxy war and an aggressive posture towards India. India has often extended the hand of friendship, but PRC has continued to indulge in containment.

I am just saying that further progress of India is contingent in pushing China back from its containment strategy towards India.

[RajeshA]

Is the end goal:

(A) A strong and prosperous India

or

(B) Revenge against China

Because I've seen a lot of strategies that revolves around B more than A. Once you understand what it is that you want, you can start formulating solutions. Things that works for B don't always helps A.

TonyMontana ji,
Pushing China back from the India's backyard and reclaiming our strategic breathing room is not revenge.

[Manishw]

One of the recent phenomenon that worries me is the continuing incidence of Anthrax in Bangladesh. Reports suggest that the beef industry of BD has suffered tremendous losses over Eid over anthrax scare. Apart from rejoicing that a lot of milch cattle lives would be spared and the animal used more sustainably, what is worrying is that we know that Anthrax is a likely component of Biological Weapons possibly available with Islamist terror groups. It is not entirely impossible that either due to lack of knowledge, or carelessness in handling, or even worse a small-scale field trial is being carried out in areas where the aftermath could be covered up and made untraceable due to predominance of Islamists and their networks penetration of state power.

Any scenario or update about the possibility over the subcontinent would be welcome!

Link:Anthrax Virus Hits Dhaka Suburb
http://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&source ... fTxYgZCuXg

From the link above:

Initially the outbreak of Anthrax was reported in Sirajganj on August 20, in Pabna on August 22, Tangail on August 31, Kushtia on September 1, Meherpur and Chuadanga on September 4, Gopalganj and Faridpur on September 7 and lately in Gazipur on September 16.

[TonyMontana]

End goal is
A. A strong and prosperous India China.
B. Eliminating or cutting down to size all threats to the above objective and PRC India is one of the major ones.

Interesting. If that's how you think, suddenly the Chinese don't seem so evil/arrogant/village bumpkin now huh? There a reason to the madness, so to speak.

Tony, what does a "strong and prosperous" India mean and what are the strategic paths that you recommend for achieving it, assuming that path B is not a recommended one.

Sorry, I can't answer that for you. Indians need to answer that for yourselves. I didn't say path B is not recommended. I mean path B wouldn't always lead to goal A. So if you're formulating solutions to path B, you might miss out on A.

"China didn't become what she is today by making anyone else fail." is a statement which has no basis in truth. One of the most benign examples is in the field of economics. Simply by concentrating so much manufacturing capacity in its own hands, monopolization of raw materials (e.g. rare earth metals), dumping cheap goods in the world, is making most of the developing world fail. Of course, China would not say that that is with a mala fide intent towards others, just some healthy self-interests. That position is understandable but does not make matters better for the developing world.

This is my point exactly. China concentrated manufacturing capacity in China. She didn't do it by reducing manufacturing capacity in other countries. Which is the analogy I was trying to make.

But let's stick to geopolitics. China has been in a proxy² war with India for a long time now, and has tried to box India in in South Asia. This is clear from China's actions and shows how China views India.

How many percentage points in GDP did these actions reduce in the last three decades? Is the Indian GDP growth dependant on these factors? The Indian GDP growth increased in last few years, did any of these factors changed in Indian's favor? Or is India's growth not directly related to these issues?

I am just saying that further progress of India is contingent in pushing China back from its containment strategy towards India.

Here is where we disagree. The Chinese containment has increase in recent years, yet Indian growth is stronger then ever. I've always maintained that India need to grow her economy first and formost. After that, your problems solves themselves.

[Manishw]

End goal is
A. A strong and prosperous India China.
B. Eliminating or cutting down to size all threats to the above objective and PRC India is one of the major ones.

Interesting. If that's how you think, suddenly the Chinese don't seem so evil/arrogant/village bumpkin now huh? There a reason to the madness, so to speak.

They still seem to be evil/arrogant.Their is that minor question of who started it first?

[TonyMontana]

They still seem to be evil/arrogant.

C'mon... The Chinese are not evil/arrogant. They're just on different teams. Please understand this. You can still be friends with people you're competing with.

Their is that minor question of who started it first?

How old are we? 12? Who cares who started it? There's that revenge mentality again. "We have to give back to the Chinese what they did to us...We must pay them back ten fold..."
Like the Dalai Lama for president thing. Don't do things just to piss off the Chinese. Do it because it benefits India.

[Manishw]

The Chinese are not evil/arrogant. They're just on different teams. Please understand this. You can still be friends with people you're competing with.

Kindly do not quote out of context.This request has been made before by me to you.I mean the PRC is evil/arrogant (using your own words), not the common man.

How old are we? 12? Who cares who started it? There's that revenge mentality again. "We have to give back to the Chinese what they did to us...We must pay them back ten fold..."
Like the Dalai Lama for president thing. Don't do things just to piss off the Chinese. Do it because it benefits India.

Kindly go easy on psychoanalysis. This request too has already been made before by me to you.
Ending PRC hegemony does benefit India.

[naren]

Like the Dalai Lama for president thing. Don't do things just to piss off the Chinese.

So it does p!$$ off China...

[TonyMontana]

Kindly do not quote out of context.This request has been made before by me to you.I mean the PRC is evil/arrogant (using your own words), not the common man.

Look at the conversation we had as intended. You said India should do A. I said, well, PRC (happy now?) did the same thing, so are they X? You said, yes, they are X for doing A. I said, do you see the disconnect? This is the end of this. I feel you're qouting me out of context, but we digress.

Kindly go easy on psychoanalysis. This request too has already been made before by me to you.
Ending PRC hegemony does benefit India.

Look, I don't have a psychology degree, I don't do psycoanalysis. I make comments and express my opinion. Is that okay with you?

So it does p!$$ off China...

Nope. What I meant was some BRFites think it will piss off the Chinese. I find it amusing.

[Hari Seldon]

Overheard in Vietnamese....

Guy 1: Would be great if India could play a larger role in South east Asia, else China will dominate everybody.
Guy 2: And how will that help? Replace one domineer with another? All the big boys play the same games, no?
Guy 1: Not quite. Unlike the Dragon, the Bear or the Eagle - the elephant is Vegetarian. And by its very nature, it doesn't prey on other animals, regardless of their size. It lives off the bounty of the Earth.

Anecdotal, sure. Apocryphal, maybe. Point to ponder. Perhaps.

/Take it easy. Only.

[Manishw]

Look at the conversation we had as intended. You said India should do A. I said, well, PRC (happy now?) did the same thing, so are they X? You said, yes, they are X for doing A. I said, do you see the disconnect? This is the end of this. I feel you're qouting me out of context, but we digress.

You digress.The question still remains that who started these dirty games first.

Look, I don't have a psychology degree, I don't do psycoanalysis. I make comments and express my opinion. Is that okay with you?

Even I don't have a degree in psychology and its okay with me.Two can play this game.Kindly remember who started it.

[Sanku]

Oh its not a matter of who started it first, CPC is evil, pure and simple, with rampant genocidal tendencies, a partial list is

1) Great leap forward
2) Genocide in Tibet
3) Supporting Genocidal and terrorist govts in Darfur, Pakistan and North Korea.

It is also a megalomaniac power which bristles at the thought of any head which is not bowed in dust before it, examples are

1) Attacking India in 62 (although it only bowed Nehru's head, the Indian head remained unbowed after cutting of 10 chinese heads for every head we lost)
2) Attacking Vietnam (where again it got a solid jhappad)

So folks lets not fall for == nonsense here. It seems the drones have figured out that == is our chink in the armor, consider how successfully that nonsense has been tried on India and Hindu's before.

[Manishw]

^ Agree and understood Sanku Ji.

[Pratyush]

X posting from managing the PRC threat thread.

Guys,

The responses proposed on this thread are dealing mostly with the military dimension. But what the string of pearls is doing is, a rolling back the Indian influence in a systematic manner. To an extent that when push comes to shove it won't matter what the Indian military can do to the pearls and that's the problem.

If India allows the PRC with an opportunity to establish a foothold in the IOR. Then even if the pearls don't have any military utility they will still cause India to lose influence in the nations where the Chines have been allowed a foothold.

The issue if not the military capability / utility . But rather of the economic and political influence. Once we lose in the near abroad it will become very difficult to regain it.

As of this moment the actions of the GOI are of a govt that has conceded the point. The most visible pointer to me is making Chines language a part of the CBSE syllabus by the HRD ministry under Kapil Sibal.

It seems to be a way of making Indians prepared for serving the PRC in the very near future.

So how do we project the Indian influence in the near abroad when we are accepting the Chines influence at home. That is my question.

JMT

[Manishw]

Pratyush, Don't have any answer's straight away, perhaps a historical background is needed to answer so who better than B ji

X posting

B Ji wrote
Quote
I guess now the GOI and the party alliance behind it will be forced to go into a vicious cycle. They will have to deny any role of Indian Muslim groups or organizations or even deny any Islamic role at all in any of the future terror attacks. Instead they will blame it on the "saffron" and use the state machinery to target the "saffron". As Islamic attacks and strength increases, the GOI will panic more and more and desperately be busy more in preventing any "saffron" challenge to replace them politically and rely more and more politically on the IM and related left or other groupings.

However his also creates a problem in frustrating the Islamists for they do not get credit for what they are doing. To a certain extent the more seasoned among them will rejoice in the effect it has in fostering internecine conflict within the "hated quafir" but the this cannot go on for long. So they will after some time begin to claim more and more direct responsibility and trying to establish the linkage to their faith.

This creates even greater pressures on GOI to find the "saffron" guilty, and the cycle goes on till Islamists are able to achieve at least their partial territorial ambitions and after that the rump GOI an the parties behind it will blame the entire episode on the saffron - that saffron "provoked" the IM.

Unquote

[brihaspati]

Pratysuh ji,
Keeping the provision of learning Chinese at school is not in itself such a bad idea. I don't remember exactly - but I think at one stage Russian was also an option. Apologies if I am wrong. However two things stand out - if at one stage Russian was an option and now China is the new option then that signifies something.

Second is that learning Chinese is crucial [but then what about several different dialects?] for those who will think about and deal with China from within the rashtra. I myself wish that I had learnt Chinese myself - I have picked up some from a colleague but not enough to follow the Chinese language publications well. It should perhaps be made available for those wishing for an IFS or IAS service. But then that in turn is tied to a radical new educational strategy - where people are filtered and vetted very early for their vocation and given incentives to pursue their dreams. Languages are best learned very early in life - as children or teenagers - speaking and reading with native users - language is then absorbed subconsciously without even awareness of "learning".

We need to establish parallel connections with the dissidents of PRC. We should hold out a solid promise for common Chinese fight against the CPC member regional satraps - those who are basically blood kin of previous bosses, or proteges of such bosses, and now engaged in a corrupt exploitation of natural and biological resources. We shoul promise them support in their fight for multi-party democracy and trial and conviction of CPC and PLA bosses for their virtual criminal livelihood.

In fact India should perhaps hold an annual Tiananmen Day for International promotion of democracy and pluralism.

[brihaspati]

Tony Montana ji,
I think you have already visited both Naren and Atri ji's threads within GDF. I am therefore hoping that you have tried to understand the peculiarly Indian doctrine of "nishkama karma" - "action without desire". So the elimination of PRC - which means the current dictatorship of the Communist Party and the ideologically motivated structure of the communist army - [which in fact is wonderful for revolutionary regime changes but horrible in peace time - because all that ideological fervour does not then find an enemy to vent on and chews up the innocent of its own nation] is part of that "nishkama karma". It is an action that needs to be done not because of revenge but because it is the right thing for Indians to do.

Yes we Indians are like this onlee - you can leave us alone. But if you don't, then you will have to face Indians who will think beyond mere revenge and therefore mean more danger for you, because vengeance may come to a compromise based on emotional considerations while "action without desire" does not stop until it achieves its purpose.

[AKalam]

Indian leadership and strategists need to consider the following:

- PRC's GDP is now 4 times that of India

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... nominal%29

- PRC leadership had achieved this difference in just a few decades, while both esssentially started with similar per capita and overall GDP figures after WW II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... _%28PPP%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... per_capita

- PRC will continue to have higher or at least same economic growth rate as that of India (~10%) for the foreseeable future
- PRC leadership has 4 times the resources to play with while trying to secure its strategic objective, not to mention the skill which they have already shown with their success of past few decades
- chances of India's catching up with PRC, before PRC becomes a predominant world power and remains as one, are negligible to nil in the medium term (20-30 years) but in the long term India and South Asia (sub-continent) has the potential to become as much or more important than PRC, and according to my theory/hypothesis presented in harmonization thread, this will take place, but perhaps not in many of our life times (in the next 50 years).

This should not be considered as a failure for India and a success for PRC, it is just that both nations have different trajectories, due to their inherent condition and situation as a consequence of their unique history and also due to the choices made by their leadership at key junctures.

Hence, PRC success within the sub-continent to recruit Nepal, Sri Lanka etc. should be looked at in this light. Failure of Pakistan as a state and its disintegration may open some opportunities, but PRC may be able to take better advantage of it than India is able to, at least PRC history of success so far indicates to that possibility. Bangladesh also must connect with PRC using road and railway link and provide shared use of Chittagong port or other deep sea port, as it cannot afford to be cut off from the predominant power in the region, while acknowledging that its civilizational kin-ship and long term tilt will remain towards India.

While it was my hope earlier that India can actually become a counter weight to PRC, by teaming up with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, the reality might be otherwise, because none of these countries all of which either border with or are very close to the PRC population centers, can afford to or will antagonize one of the future predominant world powers, and definitely the emerging predominant Asian power. An alliance can happen with Western leadership, but PRC will prevent this from happening at all cost, so even a slight move in this direction will be matched with equal counter moves and flexibility from PRC leadership.

An asymmetric nuclear MAD is certainly within India's reach to prevent PRC from being too aggressive in territorial issues, but it will change little in the overall strategic scene as PRC will achieve its goal probably not by military means, but by winning the population over with goodies, specially for populations which are not within its territory, while oppressing the minority populations within its borders. Trying to stoke insurgency within PRC borders will make PRC leadership get smarter, wiser and more effective in sensitive regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, but the situations will not get out of hand IMHO, to create any opportunity for separation.

Sorry to paint such a pessimistic view, but I believe it is better to acknowledge the reality as it is (the above is of course my own POV) and then try to chart a realistic and pragmatic course.

[brihaspati]

Yes, reality is reality and we need to be aware of it. However reality can only modify but not determine entirely aspirations. Most conflicts are not decided only by material realities but in addition aspirations and determination and vision. Humanity is not about permanent acceptance of existing conditions. A simple example would be that if material conditions decided aspirations then cave dwellers would have to remain cave-dwellers. The North Vietnamese or the Chinese themselves were facing an uphill task when they started off.

I think just as China is being overestimated as to its strengths, so is India being underrated for its apparent weaknesses. When buying gadgets or stuff I now inquire its country of origin - and if its China then I do not buy it. I thought I was an exception, but I have recently found out that even the Chinese working here do not buy them, [except Chinese sourced special food items]. Most of my colleagues now check up on the Chinese label. Its because of abominable quality and reliability.

Now we need to be worrying about Chinese missiles going out of control midway en-route to cruising towards India because of failing components and then India has to retrieve it from some deep ravine from where it continues to poison the local yak population.

[brihaspati]

X-posting:

Well autonomy [for Kashmir Valley] is a good idea if thought out well. Knowing that no one in the current INC will dare to take this up I guess I can indulge myself :

Proposal:
(1) GOI agrees to grant "autonomy" to Kashmir Valley region only in return for joint proposal passed by the J&K assembly to repeal article 370 with all retroactive acts referred to in 370 together with the "autonomy act".
(2) "autonomy" in (1) is defined to mean that there shall be a separate Kashmi Valley Assembly with right to legislate in all aspects of state affairs except foreign affairs [including treaties and agreements with foreign governments], defense, currency, citizenship, flag.
(3) the autonomous region of Kashmir Valley will raise its own revenue and GOI will not have responsibility for its finances as it is already bearing the expenses for defense and foreign relations.
(4) the "autonomy" clause will be deemed null-and-void if any of the following happens from members and residents of the autonomous region : declaration of war by the autonomous region against the Indian Union, proof of failure to prevent growth of forces that carry out physical or harmful attacks against citizens of India coming from outside the autonomous region by members of the region, proof of presence of foreign army or troops within the region, or any other conspiratorial act against the GOI or any institution of India intended to cause death, and destruction of property.

Of course I leave the consequences unstated.

[RajeshA]

Bangladesh also must connect with PRC using road and railway link and provide shared use of Chittagong port or other deep sea port, as it cannot afford to be cut off from the predominant power in the region, while acknowledging that its civilizational kin-ship and long term tilt will remain towards India.

Good Luck!

Bangladesh's long-term tilt towards India means little. In fact it is a joke. If Bangladesh could remain for the last 40 years almost estranged from the 'dominant power' in the region on one pretext or another, then the sudden imperative to seek proximity to China, cuts little ice. It is betrayal of kinship, especially as it is designed in encircling India.

There are many countries whose elites would profit from Pax-Sinica, and some of it may trickle down as well. All those countries scrambling to offer China ports for its ships in the IOR would have elites who could count themselves lucky. The rest of the population would simply be doing coolie work at most. In Pax-Sinica, all forms of production will be concentrated in PRC. The only outsourcing would be in mining raw materials for PRC, supporting the logistics of moving freight to the world markets, providing security to Chinese Oil & Gas pipelines, and getting paid for containing rival powers.

Bangladesh today has a thriving textile industry. Soon Chittagong would be exporting garments to European markets stitched in Yunnan, and the Bangladeshi Textile Industry may experience its autumn.

Other than that Pax-Sinica would not be generating any jobs other than for hawkers selling Chinese made products on the streets of Dhaka.

While it was my hope earlier that India can actually become a counter weight to PRC, by teaming up with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, the reality might be otherwise, because none of these countries all of which either border with or are very close to the PRC population centers, can afford to or will antagonize one of the future predominant world powers, and definitely the emerging predominant Asian power. An alliance can happen with Western leadership, but PRC will prevent this from happening at all cost, so even a slight move in this direction will be matched with equal counter moves and flexibility from PRC leadership.

Countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, etc. who have always felt envy and animosity towards India, would find the new Chinese suitor very attractive, but people from there should not extrapolate from their feelings the feelings of people of other powers who feel slighted and threatened by China. These people would find ways to combine their energies and resources and resist Chinese bullying. The face of the bully is becoming clearer every day.

An asymmetric nuclear MAD is certainly within India's reach to prevent PRC from being too aggressive in territorial issues, but it will change little in the overall strategic scene as PRC will achieve its goal probably not by military means, but by winning the population over with goodies, specially for populations which are not within its territory, while oppressing the minority populations within its borders. Trying to stoke insurgency within PRC borders will make PRC leadership get smarter, wiser and more effective in sensitive regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, but the situations will not get out of hand IMHO, to create any opportunity for separation.

Sorry to paint such a pessimistic view, but I believe it is better to acknowledge the reality as it is (the above is of course my own POV) and then try to chart a realistic and pragmatic course.

There will be a set back for India and hopefully there is no war but if nukes fly around India would start by destroying China's infrastructure around Indian Ocean Region which would include Gwadar, Sittwe, Chittagong, Hambantota, etc. with nukes if necessary.

Sorry to paint such a dire picture, but if other countries come in between the giants, they too will suffer. It is not all goodies.

[Atri]

I wonder why this sentiment is troubling you, when you understand the concept of Karma.

It is interesting that you brought up Karma. I understand what you're trying to say. But, a question that Indians on BRF need to ask themselves is what exactly is the goal?

Is the end goal:

(A) A strong and prosperous India

or

(B) Revenge against China

Because I've seen a lot of strategies that revolves around B more than A. Once you understand what it is that you want, you can start formulating solutions. Things that works for B don't always helps A.

What is the definition of China, tony ji? Which China are you talking about? the doab between the yangtse and huangho? If I recall correctly, that is the core of China. The regions of Turkestan, Tibet are alien to you. As a matter of fact, Tibet is more closer to India (Culturally, linguistically) that it is to Chinese. So when you present the option of "Revenge against China", what China do you refer to?

The China, which Indians traditionally know and are amicable with, is not trying to interfere in the heartland of India (the Indo-Gangetic plains). Indians have nothing to do with the "real" china, in fact Chinese are our younger brothers (Anuj) when we talk in terms of civilization. But when Chinese throw off their civilizational heritage and intrude in the heartland of Indian subcontinent (which is same as India) that calls for serious retribution. China has grown (territorially) far beyond its limits and that too in wrong direction.

[TonyMontana]

What is the definition of China, tony ji? Which China are you talking about? the doab between the yangtse and huangho? If I recall correctly, that is the core of China. The regions of Turkestan, Tibet are alien to you. As a matter of fact, Tibet is more closer to India (Culturally, linguistically) that it is to Chinese. So when you present the option of "Revenge against China", what China do you refer to?

The PRC of cause. The current geopolitical entity commonly refered to as China.

The China, which Indians traditionally know and are amicable with, is not trying to interfere in the heartland of India (the Indo-Gangetic plains). Indians have nothing to do with the "real" china, in fact Chinese are our younger brothers (Anuj) when we talk in terms of civilization. But when Chinese throw off their civilizational heritage and intrude in the heartland of Indian subcontinent (which is same as India) that calls for serious retribution. China has grown (territorially) far beyond its limits and that too in wrong direction.

Illustrates my point perfectly. To you, China has grown too big for it's boots. Like a naughty teenager that begin to question the "bigger brother's" authority and influence. As such, this naughty little boy, that not so long ago you taught everything he knew, need to have his bottom spanked and taught a lesson. So India would return to it's rightful place in the world.

Leaving out the superiority complex. To me, correct me if I'm wrong, you think teaching the PRC a lesson on humidity is the first step to a strong and properous India. Whereas I propose India should be properous first, before she can teach the Chinese a lesson. And by focusing too much on teaching PRC a lesson, you misses out on making India prosperous.

[Atri]

What is the definition of China, tony ji? Which China are you talking about? the doab between the yangtse and huangho? If I recall correctly, that is the core of China. The regions of Turkestan, Tibet are alien to you. As a matter of fact, Tibet is more closer to India (Culturally, linguistically) that it is to Chinese. So when you present the option of "Revenge against China", what China do you refer to?

The PRC of cause. The current geopolitical entity commonly refered to as China.

China has grown (territorially) far beyond its limits and that too in wrong direction.

Illustrates my point perfectly. To you, China has grown too big for it's boots. Like a naughty teenager that begin to question the "bigger brother's" authority and influence. As such, this naughty little boy, that not so long ago you taught everything he knew, need to have his bottom spanked and taught a lesson. So India would return to it's rightful place in the world.

Leaving out the superiority complex. To me, correct me if I'm wrong, you think teaching the PRC a lesson on humidity is the first step to a strong and properous India. Whereas I propose India should be properous first, before she can teach the Chinese a lesson. And by focusing too much on teaching PRC a lesson, you misses out on making India prosperous.

Tony ji,

well, From historical point of view, current PRC is an aberration. When the word "china" is thought about by an Indian it is usually about the Han-heartlands (which is where China really belongs) from the doab of the famous two rivers. Now when one starts fingering the areas which do not belong to one and which are far away from one's homeland, the retribution and reaction by the residents there is obvious. The aspirations expressed in few posts of BRF, which have irked you (unless of course you have achieved equanimity of mind, like Buddha), are, by their logical outcomes, in coherence with many other "outsiders" which currently reside in the domains of PRC (Tibetans, uighurs, mongolians, certain regions from South). These opinions on brf are merely giving voice to their aspirations.

Whilst we are familiar with PRC's illustrious record of accommodating the aspirations of its own "han" populace , the other voices are somewhat eaten up by the din of chinese labour. We really wish that India should serve those non-han ethnicities (Tibetans, Uighurs, Mongols). That is what these posts on BRF are doing. Although I am not amazed at your displeasure on the "dirty and laughable Indian practice" of expressing the opinions, I wonder where you stand on this.

PRC is not China. China is hostage of PRC and PLA. We would love to serve Chinese people in raising their voice for freedom too.

[RamaY]

PRC is not China. China is hostage of PRC and PLA. We would love to serve Chinese people in raising their voice for freedom too.

well put Atri-ji

Tony Montanna, hope this relieves you.

[chandrasekhar.m]

^^^ Several posters including Atri above have pointed out that the establishment in PRC since the past 60 years does not want a prosperous or stable India. Hence, it doesnt make sense at all to try to reduce the threat from PRC after achieving prosperity. So, care to explain why you keep repeating the same illogical stuff again and again, of acheiving prosperity first, and then countering the threat from PRC?

[TonyMontana]

well, From historical point of view, current PRC is an aberration. When the word "china" is thought about by an Indian it is usually about the Han-heartlands (which is where China really belongs) from the doab of the famous two rivers. Now when one starts fingering the areas which do not belong to one and which are far away from one's homeland, the retribution and reaction by the residents there is obvious.

How do you feel about the country called the United States of America? Are they an aberration? Do the White Anglo-saxon Protestants belong only in Europe? Maybe you don't realise, but the word "XinJiang" means "new territory". To proclaim certain people belong in certain area, in the grand scheme of things seems navie.

The aspirations expressed in few posts of BRF, which have irked you (unless of course you have achieved equanimity of mind, like Buddha), are, by their logical outcomes, in coherence with many other "outsiders" which currently reside in the domains of PRC (Tibetans, uighurs, mongolians, certain regions from South). These opinions on brf are merely giving voice to their aspirations.

Rest assured my friend, I'm not irked at all. I fully support your right to feel that India is hard done by China. You can hate on China all you want. But believe it or not, I'm trying to help. From a outsider's point of view, it seems counter productive that "getting back at China" is higher on the agenda.

Whilst we are familiar with PRC's illustrious record of accommodating the aspirations of its own "han" populace , the other voices are somewhat eaten up by the din of chinese labour. We really wish that India should serve those non-han ethnicities (Tibetans, Uighurs, Mongols). That is what these posts on BRF are doing. Although I am not amazed at your displeasure on the "dirty and laughable Indian practice" of expressing the opinions, I wonder where you stand on this.

I wonder where you got dirty and laughable from. Not my words. I, myself has been sold on the Chinese National Identity Project, as someone called it. As I believe, traditionally and historically, China was never a nation/civilisation that's based on race. China as a concept is always been, "The System of how we do things". That's one of the reasons why non-han dynasties became effectively, "Chinese". Think of China like Rome or America, instead of Korea or Japan.

PRC is not China. China is hostage of PRC and PLA. We would love to serve Chinese people in raising their voice for freedom too.

I wonder what you think a China that is freed from PRC and the PLA will be like? A liberal western democracy with non-violent buddhist ideals? I always maintained that even if you get rid of the CCP and PLA, China will still behave the same. Why? National interests remain the same.

[TonyMontana]

^^^ Several posters including Atri above have pointed out that the establishment in PRC since the past 60 years does not want a prosperous or stable India. Hence, it doesnt make sense at all to try to reduce the threat from PRC after achieving prosperity. So, care to explain why you keep repeating the same illogical stuff again and again, of acheiving prosperity first, and then countering the threat from PRC?

Let me repeat my illogical stuff again.
In my opinion,
1) A prosperous India will have enough leverage in terms of trade to entice the Chinese to settle the border disputes in India's favor.

2) Only a prosperous India can effective counter China, if trade(read money) is not enough to settle your problems.

3) By focusing on "getting the chinese back" today, you slows the growth of Indian economy with non-productive spending, slowing India from gaining prosperity.

Look, what the CCP really want is to drag India into an arms race, and try to out spend you. China is not dumb enough to fulfill Indian Jingoe's dream by starting a hot war.

[Manishw]

Let me repeat my illogical stuff again.

At least we agree on one point that your stuff is illogical.

1) A prosperous India will have enough leverage in terms of trade to entice the Chinese to settle the border disputes in India's favor.

There will be no prosperous India without a strong military.Our influence both in the far and near abroad will be finished and internal problems will come to the fore of course abetted by PRC.Is it too difficult to understand?

2) Only a prosperous India can effective counter China, if trade(read money) is not enough to settle your problems.

We are prosperous enough to take on PRC today what seems to be lacking is political will even there I am not sure.

3) By focusing on "getting the chinese back" today, you slows the growth of Indian economy with non-productive spending, slowing India from gaining prosperity.

Our defence budget (IMO) should be 1.5 times more than what it is today.our economy can grow faster even with this budget if we reduce inefficiencies/corruption in our system.Also the money spent on defence can contribute to our GDP growth rate.

Look, what the CCP really want is to drag India into an arms race, and try to out spend you. China is not dumb enough to fulfill Indian Jingoe's dream by starting a hot war.

Thank the CCP for that otherwise there is a widely held view that if not for it the politicos in our countries would be sitting on their backsides and doing nothing.

[Pratyush]

Pratysuh ji,
Keeping the provision of learning Chinese at school is not in itself such a bad idea.

SNIP.........

Jupiter, I generally follow and agree with most of what you say. But in this instance I cannot accept the wisdom of this action by the HRD Ministry. To me it seems to be Macaulay part 2.

Try as I might I just cant see this ending up nicely.

JMT

[Manishw]

Pratush I am sure you would be knowing this but just for the benefit of somebody who doesn't.
This language is not compulsory , there are a whole host of languages to choose from in the syllabus both Indian and non Indian.

[Pratyush]

That is not the point. The point is adding the language and then having the ministry publicize it. If it was CBSE decision which said it was optional. No problems, but the minister getting involved is showing that the decision has support from the highest level.

Any way no issues with individuals learning any language. As long as it is personal choice. But in India's case it seems to be decision where Indians are being molded in a particular direction.

That is what gets my goat.