Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RajeshA]

Pratysuh ji,
Keeping the provision of learning Chinese at school is not in itself such a bad idea.

SNIP.........

Jupiter, I generally follow and agree with most of what you say. But in this instance I cannot accept the wisdom of this action by the HRD Ministry. To me it seems to be Macaulay part 2.

Try as I might I just cant see this ending up nicely.

JMT

Learning the Chinese language on a grand scale is accepting China's ascendancy. Having it in the syllabus is really going over board. English is the default language of communication for the world. Let it remain so. This way the Chinese are at disadvantage in the world. If the world start learning Chinese, then it would be the rest of the world that would be expected to know Chinese, and the Chinese would be making fun of others. Very very stupid idea by H&RM.

[surinder]

Learning Chinese is very important. It is needed to complete our acceptance of PRC. Look, in the past we have accepted the language/script of the ROP conqerers: Farsi, Arabic, Turkish etc. Then we accepted gladly the language of the ROL rulers & conquerers. As a matter of fact, we are communicating right now in the language of our last foreign ruler---we take pride in how better we speak than the native speakers themselves. So why not learn and excel in Chinese? We will (going by past record) speak it better than the Chinese themselves.

[svinayak]

Learning Chinese is very important. It is needed to complete our acceptance of PRC. So why not learn and excel in Chinese? We will (going by past record) speak it better than the Chinese themselves.

Learning mandarin is good. Many Indians have learnt chinese mandarin.
Since we have accepted Tibet as part of China it will be good and also invite them over to India also.

[darshhan]

Learning Chinese is very important for Indians today.If we do not know chinese then how do we know what's going on in China.We cannot read their journals and publications.We cannot infer what discussions are taking place on Chinese TV channels.Hence we cannot get an insight in their mindset. This situation places us at great strategic disadvantage.Basically our intelligence agencies are blind as far as real China is concerned(the area beyond Tibet) because of lack of operatives who know chinese and are well versed in Chinese culture.Probably you can count operatives and strategic experts with the knowledge of Chinese at your finger tips.

By the way Chinese are learning English in record numbers and they are not ashamed of it.Even Hindi is becoming popular.As a result their intelligence agencies and Military units will have tremendous advantage when they deal with India.They would never be short of linguists.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/No-job-cr ... 97237.aspx
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 77545.html

If we think of the Chinese as our rivals and competitors then chinese is a must.Just see how Tony Montana and DavidD come to this forum and lecture us on economic prosperity and welfare.Similarly we should also be able to visit their forums,check out what they are saying and make a few suggestions of our own.

I am of the opinion that GOI should actively encourage learning of Chinese as this is a strategic requirement.They are already decades behind as far as this requirement is concerned.Although Minister himself shouldn't have espoused the cause
in public.

[AKalam]

Yes, reality is reality and we need to be aware of it. However reality can only modify but not determine entirely aspirations. Most conflicts are not decided only by material realities but in addition aspirations and determination and vision. Humanity is not about permanent acceptance of existing conditions. A simple example would be that if material conditions decided aspirations then cave dwellers would have to remain cave-dwellers. The North Vietnamese or the Chinese themselves were facing an uphill task when they started off.

I think just as China is being overestimated as to its strengths, so is India being underrated for its apparent weaknesses. When buying gadgets or stuff I now inquire its country of origin - and if its China then I do not buy it. I thought I was an exception, but I have recently found out that even the Chinese working here do not buy them, [except Chinese sourced special food items]. Most of my colleagues now check up on the Chinese label. Its because of abominable quality and reliability.

Now we need to be worrying about Chinese missiles going out of control midway en-route to cruising towards India because of failing components and then India has to retrieve it from some deep ravine from where it continues to poison the local yak population.

brihaspati ji,

I took the liberty to frankly express my POV, even at the risk of making people think that I am not sympathetic to Indian aspirations, because I thought it is the mark of a true friend to point out limitations rather than being a yes-man.

Also it has been my observation that whenever we are upset about something, it is usually because of lack of understanding or lack of information which prevents us from truely assessing a given situation.

India has many strengths which I have pointed out in the past and I am confident that these strengths will eventually make India and the sub-continent region to be a prosperous and predominant power on world stage, just like Europe and East Asia is today. Unlike many, based on my theory/hypothesis, I believe that the sub-continent has been one civilization unit and will continue to function as one unit, despite 30% of its population converting to a different alien religion and the grievous history of partition. So IMHO it is self-defeating for anyone in Bangladesh and Pakistan (which were integral part of Bharat/Hindustan, unlike Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar or Afghanistan) to work for or wish for failure of Indian aspiration for greatness.

I am also well aware of quality problems of Chinese goods. As a person with Chemical Sensitivity, I am specially careful about avoiding anything made in China, as I was severely affected by toxic Chinese products several times, while I love organic cotton products made in India.

I have heard from my father about low quality Japaese products compared with British or German products in their youth, I have seen how the Koreans have improved their Hyundai cars, so I am sure the Chinese quality will improve, although it may take a lot longer, as Chinese society is much more broken than the relatively more homogeneous Japanese or Korean societies, both of which enjoy high level of Historical Continuity for more than a thousand years.

So, with all due respect, I stand by my post and the opinion that it will be wiser for Indian leadership to avoid conflict with PRC for the time being, as it is in a weaker position. Like TonyMontana, I am also of opinion, that the time is more appropriate for India to concentrate its resources to improve its internal strength, tolerate PRC's presence in the neighborhood for the time being and wait for a better day when it can negotiate from a position of strength.

[AKalam]

Bangladesh also must connect with PRC using road and railway link and provide shared use of Chittagong port or other deep sea port, as it cannot afford to be cut off from the predominant power in the region, while acknowledging that its civilizational kin-ship and long term tilt will remain towards India.

Good Luck!

Bangladesh's long-term tilt towards India means little. In fact it is a joke. If Bangladesh could remain for the last 40 years almost estranged from the 'dominant power' in the region on one pretext or another, then the sudden imperative to seek proximity to China, cuts little ice. It is betrayal of kinship, especially as it is designed in encircling India.

There are many countries whose elites would profit from Pax-Sinica, and some of it may trickle down as well. All those countries scrambling to offer China ports for its ships in the IOR would have elites who could count themselves lucky. The rest of the population would simply be doing coolie work at most. In Pax-Sinica, all forms of production will be concentrated in PRC. The only outsourcing would be in mining raw materials for PRC, supporting the logistics of moving freight to the world markets, providing security to Chinese Oil & Gas pipelines, and getting paid for containing rival powers.

Bangladesh today has a thriving textile industry. Soon Chittagong would be exporting garments to European markets stitched in Yunnan, and the Bangladeshi Textile Industry may experience its autumn.

Other than that Pax-Sinica would not be generating any jobs other than for hawkers selling Chinese made products on the streets of Dhaka.

While it was my hope earlier that India can actually become a counter weight to PRC, by teaming up with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, the reality might be otherwise, because none of these countries all of which either border with or are very close to the PRC population centers, can afford to or will antagonize one of the future predominant world powers, and definitely the emerging predominant Asian power. An alliance can happen with Western leadership, but PRC will prevent this from happening at all cost, so even a slight move in this direction will be matched with equal counter moves and flexibility from PRC leadership.

Countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, etc. who have always felt envy and animosity towards India, would find the new Chinese suitor very attractive, but people from there should not extrapolate from their feelings the feelings of people of other powers who feel slighted and threatened by China. These people would find ways to combine their energies and resources and resist Chinese bullying. The face of the bully is becoming clearer every day.

An asymmetric nuclear MAD is certainly within India's reach to prevent PRC from being too aggressive in territorial issues, but it will change little in the overall strategic scene as PRC will achieve its goal probably not by military means, but by winning the population over with goodies, specially for populations which are not within its territory, while oppressing the minority populations within its borders. Trying to stoke insurgency within PRC borders will make PRC leadership get smarter, wiser and more effective in sensitive regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, but the situations will not get out of hand IMHO, to create any opportunity for separation.

Sorry to paint such a pessimistic view, but I believe it is better to acknowledge the reality as it is (the above is of course my own POV) and then try to chart a realistic and pragmatic course.

There will be a set back for India and hopefully there is no war but if nukes fly around India would start by destroying China's infrastructure around Indian Ocean Region which would include Gwadar, Sittwe, Chittagong, Hambantota, etc. with nukes if necessary.

Sorry to paint such a dire picture, but if other countries come in between the giants, they too will suffer. It is not all goodies.

RajeshA ji,

Bangladesh decision to connect with Yunnan in PRC by road and rail link via Myanmar should not be considered as a hostile gesture towards India.

Bangladesh has already decided to provide transit to NE region of India and share Chittagong port or any future deep sea port with India. It is my hope and I am reasonably confident that Bangladesh will continue to co-operate with India on all sectors.

We are one of the poorest countries in the world with grim future prospect. According to my analysis, the leaders from this region of subcontinent should have never participated in Pakistan movement and become separated from India in 1947.

But since we do have a sovereign country, we will need to look after the best interest of its people.

Bangladesh Garment industries already use raw materials from both India and China. Connecting with China by road or rail will let us use that link to avoid much more costly sea route via Singapore. Bangladesh labor cost is lower than India or PRC, so in both cases we can be used as a cheap labor source and destination for industries that use extensive low cost labor input, such as Ready Made Garments (RMG).

Bangladesh leadership should however make sure that its landmass is not used by Pakistan, PRC or any other entity to harm India's interest in any way.

Unlike what you have suggested, I am of opinion that partition should never have happened and Bangladesh and Pakistan should play with India as a team player, as we are family. Vietnam, Korea and Japan are neighboring civilizations with PRC, but they also have been influenced by China throughout history, so their feeling about China is complex. The animosity from them is mainly towards short sighted CPC leadership.

[svinayak]

Bangladesh decision to connect with Yunnan in PRC by road and rail link via Myanmar should not be considered as a hostile gesture towards India.

It will be considered hotstile.

Unlike what you have suggested, I am of opinion that partition should never have happened and Bangladesh and Pakistan should play with India as a team player, as we are family. Vietnam, Korea and Japan are neighboring civilizations with PRC, but they also have been influenced by China throughout history, so their feeling about China is complex. The animosity from them is mainly towards short sighted CPC leadership.

Once foreign ideology and transnational links are removed then this will happen

[RajeshA]

We cannot read their journals and publications.

Try Google Chrome with Translation support. It usually translates the web page on page load if it is in a different language and if you wish translation. AJAX content does not get translated, but that too can be done e.g. using Google's Translation Service.

Having Chinese as part of syllabus in India is a bad bad idea.

If we think of the Chinese as our rivals and competitors then chinese is a must.Just see how Tony Montana and DavidD come to this forum and lecture us on economic prosperity and welfare.Similarly we should also be able to visit their forums,check out what they are saying and make a few suggestions of our own.

Chinese are learning English because it is the international language of communication. They are not learning it to talk to Indians.

Those in the intelligence community can learn it, should learn it. Those who want it, can take tuition in Chinese. It should not be part of the syllabus though. India is not China. Don't make it.

[RajeshA]

Bangladesh decision to connect with Yunnan in PRC by road and rail link via Myanmar should not be considered as a hostile gesture towards India.

1) Rail Link through Myanmar to Yunnan, PRC is a hostile act. If Bangladesh had insisted to PRC to have the link built through India's N-E, it would have been a different matter. Having it through Myanmar makes it apparent, that Bangladesh and PRC want to play games not in the interest of India.

2) It would have been one thing to develop Chittagong Port with Indian help, and India would have been more than ready to help, but allowing the Chinese to do it, means Bangladesh is providing PRC with a beachhead in IOR. India as the carrier of our age-old civilization of which you claim to be a part, deems it an intrusion into India's backyard and it has military and strategic repercussions for India.

There is no other way of seeing it. It is an hostile act.

[brihaspati]

To all my friends who were unhappy with my apparent non-objection to "Chinese language" as an option :

I did elaborate that I see it as an important tool for those who are going to deal with China from the Indian side.

There are further two aspects I had specifically mentioned as I have in mind : first that for languages to be really learnt for masterly use it is necessary to start early in life. Second that we need to establish connections directly to the dissidents of PRC. Moreover I also pointed to those kids who are filtered for their dreams or ambitions to serve in the IFS, IAS or even special forces and the army. That is a hypothetical educationals tructure - which I also mentioned

I also mentioned that if once Russian was an option and suddenly now Chinese becomes an option - then that is significantly different - from my first line statement that Chinese as an option in itself is not that bad. Expanded that meant that I was pointing to the possibility of an ideological mindset change in the GOI ideologues - that in their mind China now occupies the position that Russia once did.

But to be honest, I have firmly expressed my model that the for the most part Indian regimes post Brit have been pushing for an "ideological vacuum", so that means they do not have commitments to any particular ideology. They simply veer to the direction they feel the ideological wind is veering to. If China goes down some day - they will be as quick to change direction like the weathercock as they abandoned Russies to Sammies.

We should not be too worried about ideological subjugation in itself as a permanent feature of the Indian elite. Only that imitation of part of the Indian philosophy - that of the proverbial swan separating out the milk from the water - is what drives the elite. The milk in this case is of course self-service. However, if they see an advantage in appearing to convert into a new ideology that seeks to subjugate India - then they will pretend to do so, and even work overtime to convince the new subjugators of their zeal by taking it out on their fellow commons.

So it is the lack of any ideological commitment that is the most worrisome, not subscription to one particular one sincerely.

[brihaspati]

Akalam bhai,
I sense that you think I was offended by your remarks. Not at all. You can well understand the strategic red signals that will fuel up whenever you mention the Yunnan connection. We as Indians, do have deep and profound reasons to distrust PRC and PLA designs.

What is unique in the evolving situation is that I think you can see that more and more Indians are thinking indepndently of their "political idols". There are still remnants of a kind of ideological priesthood that demands that we cannot think negatively of individual leadership and that the slightest critical comment should be taken as a personal attack on the "great leaders". This of course is a continuation or rather a remnant of the "blind divinity worshipping" culture fostered by the parasitic upper-middle sections or coteries of parasitic dependents of feudal systems - all over the subcontinent. Coming from BD you must be aware of the corresponding phenomena in BD where Islamism still manifests the very supposedly non-Islamic practice of glorification of "great leaders".

But this is a dying force. Instead of individual leaders we will increasingly see tightly knit oligarchies of authoritarian leadership bands who are held together by ideological commitments only. So the nature of politics itself will change.

Any future oligarchy leading India will have to deal with PRC and PLA on an ideological, political as well as military basis. That is a comprehensive task involving all of economics, military, and diplomatic initiatives. Not one of these can be exclusively pursued abandoing all other aspects.

The future agenda from India towards China is brief and clear :
(1) PRC and PLA's current stranglehold on the Chinese people has to be broken.
(2) Communist dictatorship or for that matter similar totalitarian ideologies which Indians have suffered from cannot be allowed to have territorial legitimacy in the neighbourhood of India
(3) India has no quarrel with the common Chinese
(4) India will support Chinese dissidents and the common Chinese in any of their fights against totalitarianism, corrupt communist party bosses and coteries and their struggle to establish representative and more open democracies
(5) India will not restrict its options by pre-committing itself to only diplomatic or economic forms of struggle
(6) India will watch and include behaviour in neighbours that facilitate Chinese military movements in its strategic considerations.

[naren]

Indian leadership and strategists need to consider the following:

- PRC's GDP is now 4 times that of India

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... nominal%29

- PRC leadership had achieved this difference in just a few decades, while both esssentially started with similar per capita and overall GDP figures after WW II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... _%28PPP%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... per_capita

(I'm quoting all #s from memory - apologies if inaccurate)

One important point missed is that PRC liberalized 12 years before India did. India's GDP is only about a decade behind that of China.

- PRC will continue to have higher or at least same economic growth rate as that of India (~10%) for the foreseeable future

There are many other variables - change of leadership in 2012, rioting in the order 100,000s, gender gap (1.4 males per 1 female), rising rich and poor gap, increasing urban/rural wage gap, pollution, rapidly aging population, heavy investments in dollar, 20 million "left behind Children". Add to that international arm twisting on currency and carbon emissions. To assume that PRC will have 10% solid growth - sounds "too good". Might well help to keep CCPs track record in making economic predictions (remember "Great Leap Forward" ?).

Things are not hunky dory in China. Chk this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_China

Prostitution is an increasingly large part of the Chinese economy, employing perhaps 10 million people, with an annual level of consumption of possibly 1 trillion RMB.[16] Following a 2000 police campaign, Chinese economist Yang Fan estimated that the Chinese GDP slumped by 1%, as a result of decreased spending by newly unemployed female prostitutes.[16]

That is anything but a "rising" nation. I have nothing against the mango Chinese and personally would be very happy if their wealth trickles down to them and have a better life.

India's case is different - not exactly comparable with China. No need to go to details at this point.

- PRC leadership has 4 times the resources to play with while trying to secure its strategic objective, not to mention the skill which they have already shown with their success of past few decades

PRC shows Will in their pursuit of geopolitics. I'd appreciate them for that - something which India doesn't do.

- chances of India's catching up with PRC, before PRC becomes a predominant world power and remains as one, are negligible to nil in the medium term (20-30 years) but in the long term India and South Asia (sub-continent) has the potential to become as much or more important than PRC, and according to my theory/hypothesis presented in harmonization thread, this will take place, but perhaps not in many of our life times (in the next 50 years).

I'm more interested in analyzing what will happen after 10 years. India has her advantages.

In short, we should be more concerned of a "falling" China than a "rising" one.

[Sudip]

I am posting the pdf report, "Global Governance 2025:at a Critical Juncture" which is the source of the recent article by CNN IBN which claimed "India third most powerful nation"

[RajeshA]

Mr Ejaz trying to do a lot of equal-equal, peddling socio-economic theories, but also some credible anthropological views.

Published on Sept. 22, 2010
By Dr Manzur Ejaz
Pakistan and India: apples and oranges?

The fact of the matter is that most of the Muslims living in Pakistan are converts of lower layers of different castes. Till the time of the partition their status as a lowly mass of peasants, artisans and labourers continued. Muslim feudal lords mostly owned land and urban centres were completely run by the Hindu elite. Muslims of the present Pakistan had hardly any representation in the business community, bureaucracy, or education. During the entire Muslim rule, their status remained similar to the untouchables who converted to Christianity during the British rule. Therefore, other than a small percentage of Urdu speakers who may have come from the old ruling Muslim elite, it is misleading for the Pakistanis to idealise themselves as heirs to Muslim ruling elites who had descended from Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran and the Middle East.

[ramana]

Maybe we should welcome back those lowly forced converts back into India and let the RAPE leave for greener pastures like KSA or Britainistan?

[AKalam]

If what Dr. Ejaz says is true of Pakistan, then I can say that the situation is very similar for Bangladesh and perhaps even true for most Muslims in India as well. Two nation theory was a myth propagated for the Muslim elite by the Muslim elite for a mistaken short-sighted goal that has harmed 1.5 billion population of the sub-continent.

Here are a few articles and news item links about road link issue:

http://sify.com/news/the-dragon-comes-t ... gehbe.html
http://sify.com/news/china-to-india-car ... dbigd.html
http://www.bdnews24.com/details.php?id=173312&cid=2
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/c ... 469720.htm
http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2010 ... kyard.html

I understand Indian worries about military use of Chittagong and Kunming road/rail link and its strategic implications. But please note that the link is via Myanmar, which has its own worries about PRC influence and may not allow military transport. The challenge for Bangladesh will be to ensure non-military use of the over land route and the ports.

Free flow of goods and people for tourism and trade is a cherished goal for developing a region, so links via NE India and Myanmar should both be pursued IMHO, but there has to be mechanisms in place to ensure non-military use of the transport infrastructure.

Speaking of trade, while I was traveling in Central Asia, I have seen Chinese trucks plying the roads in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, both countries still under Russian security protection, but officially members of SCO.

Trade cannot and should be inhibited due to security concerns, while security concerns can be addressed with proper mutually agreed mechanisms. It is trade that links people at the end of the day to increase contact between people and let them work for mutual benefit and thus remove layers of mutual suspicions. This is as true for the sub-continent and greater Asian region, as it is for the planet.

[AKalam]

Akalam bhai,
I sense that you think I was offended by your remarks. Not at all. You can well understand the strategic red signals that will fuel up whenever you mention the Yunnan connection. We as Indians, do have deep and profound reasons to distrust PRC and PLA designs.

What is unique in the evolving situation is that I think you can see that more and more Indians are thinking indepndently of their "political idols". There are still remnants of a kind of ideological priesthood that demands that we cannot think negatively of individual leadership and that the slightest critical comment should be taken as a personal attack on the "great leaders". This of course is a continuation or rather a remnant of the "blind divinity worshipping" culture fostered by the parasitic upper-middle sections or coteries of parasitic dependents of feudal systems - all over the subcontinent. Coming from BD you must be aware of the corresponding phenomena in BD where Islamism still manifests the very supposedly non-Islamic practice of glorification of "great leaders".

But this is a dying force. Instead of individual leaders we will increasingly see tightly knit oligarchies of authoritarian leadership bands who are held together by ideological commitments only. So the nature of politics itself will change.

Any future oligarchy leading India will have to deal with PRC and PLA on an ideological, political as well as military basis. That is a comprehensive task involving all of economics, military, and diplomatic initiatives. Not one of these can be exclusively pursued abandoing all other aspects.

The future agenda from India towards China is brief and clear :
(1) PRC and PLA's current stranglehold on the Chinese people has to be broken.
(2) Communist dictatorship or for that matter similar totalitarian ideologies which Indians have suffered from cannot be allowed to have territorial legitimacy in the neighbourhood of India
(3) India has no quarrel with the common Chinese
(4) India will support Chinese dissidents and the common Chinese in any of their fights against totalitarianism, corrupt communist party bosses and coteries and their struggle to establish representative and more open democracies
(5) India will not restrict its options by pre-committing itself to only diplomatic or economic forms of struggle
(6) India will watch and include behaviour in neighbours that facilitate Chinese military movements in its strategic considerations.

Brihaspati ji,

Indian suspicion of CPC led PRC/PLA is natural and understandable.

The political dynasty issue I believe is a hangover from Imperial, Monarchic, Feudal era that the sub-continent has not probably grown out of, as it is still mainly agrarian and not fully industrialized that transformed society in other industrialized societies. Perhaps democracy came too soon to our region, but what alternatives did we have, communism/marxism that destroys the social fabric is not one I would welcome.

In fact, I am happier to have what we have in the sub-continent, a Historical Continuity of the ancient society (with all its imperfections) coupled with ancient and some recent religions, that keeps society stable and on even keel. The PRC Chinese are the proverbial rabbit and they will run and win for the time being, but the final success will be for societies that keep their continuity and surpass them with slow and steady pace like the tortoise.

While the Chinese are reaching into the sub-continent with trade, I would encourage India to open its arms and free up its trade with its neighbors. India has a big market, let the elites and the masses of the smaller countries connect with this big market, so the relationship is strengthened. Borders are there for security, but lets not inhibit free and unfettered trade, specially since it is important for strategic reasons as well, which is to counter and compete with PRC influence.

[RamaY]

Maybe we should welcome back those lowly forced converts back into India and let the RAPE leave for greener pastures like KSA or Britainistan?

XPosting from Military Scenarios thread...

I do not agree!

If a christian-west or communist-china can occupy and manage Pakistan, a Hindu (even if someone says so) India too can do that. We are giving too much importance to the feelings of terrorist state of Pakistan.

After all our gurus divided TSP population into following groups (more or less)

- TSPA - Kabila gaurds
- Feudals - True owners of the Kabila
- Mullahs - defines structure of Kabila
- Mango-abduls - Brain-dead

India should completely destroy the first three groups and reclaim the Kabila and run it as per its own rules.

On the costs: Every $1 of USA military costs in TSP theater == Rs 5 to India. This is after taking the PPP conversion and the distance of logistic-chain into consideration. So a $500B war price for USA == $60B for India. This is a very cheap war for India to have to destroy Pakistan.

[AKalam]

Indian leadership and strategists need to consider the following:

- PRC's GDP is now 4 times that of India

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... nominal%29

- PRC leadership had achieved this difference in just a few decades, while both esssentially started with similar per capita and overall GDP figures after WW II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... _%28PPP%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... per_capita

(I'm quoting all #s from memory - apologies if inaccurate)

One important point missed is that PRC liberalized 12 years before India did. India's GDP is only about a decade behind that of China.

- PRC will continue to have higher or at least same economic growth rate as that of India (~10%) for the foreseeable future

There are many other variables - change of leadership in 2012, rioting in the order 100,000s, gender gap (1.4 males per 1 female), rising rich and poor gap, increasing urban/rural wage gap, pollution, rapidly aging population, heavy investments in dollar, 20 million "left behind Children". Add to that international arm twisting on currency and carbon emissions. To assume that PRC will have 10% solid growth - sounds "too good". Might well help to keep CCPs track record in making economic predictions (remember "Great Leap Forward" ?).

Things are not hunky dory in China. Chk this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_China

Prostitution is an increasingly large part of the Chinese economy, employing perhaps 10 million people, with an annual level of consumption of possibly 1 trillion RMB.[16] Following a 2000 police campaign, Chinese economist Yang Fan estimated that the Chinese GDP slumped by 1%, as a result of decreased spending by newly unemployed female prostitutes.[16]

That is anything but a "rising" nation. I have nothing against the mango Chinese and personally would be very happy if their wealth trickles down to them and have a better life.

India's case is different - not exactly comparable with China. No need to go to details at this point.

- PRC leadership has 4 times the resources to play with while trying to secure its strategic objective, not to mention the skill which they have already shown with their success of past few decades

PRC shows Will in their pursuit of geopolitics. I'd appreciate them for that - something which India doesn't do.

- chances of India's catching up with PRC, before PRC becomes a predominant world power and remains as one, are negligible to nil in the medium term (20-30 years) but in the long term India and South Asia (sub-continent) has the potential to become as much or more important than PRC, and according to my theory/hypothesis presented in harmonization thread, this will take place, but perhaps not in many of our life times (in the next 50 years).

I'm more interested in analyzing what will happen after 10 years. India has her advantages.

In short, we should be more concerned of a "falling" China than a "rising" one.

I don't disagree with the points you have mentioned, but should we not plan for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. It is certainly possible that PRC might fall, as it is hard to predict the future, but 1.2 billion people cannot plan their future based on that assumption, I would think.

[TonyMontana]

I don't disagree with the points you have mentioned, but should we not plan for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. It is certainly possible that PRC might fall, as it is hard to predict the future, but 1.2 billion people cannot plan their future based on that assumption, I would think.

I've been saying that for a while now. I wonder what the response to you will be.

[brihaspati]

I think I have given one response already. That India will not restrict its options by pre-committing to only the economic development and competition route and abandoning the military and extension of proxy conflicts options. Only one method will not be pursued to the complete neglect and abandonment of all others.

We have studied our history and also the various doctrines that try to preach to us that we should always be more moralistic than forces who have proved their hostile intent. I am not the government, but I may just represent a certain school of Indian thought which refuses to commit to such one-sided commitments.

[RajeshA]

I don't disagree with the points you have mentioned, but should we not plan for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. It is certainly possible that PRC might fall, as it is hard to predict the future, but 1.2 billion people cannot plan their future based on that assumption, I would think.

Planning for the worst case scenario means planning for a world where the PRC has neutralized all other powers through co-option of its elites, through setting up of belligerent thugs like Pakistan and North Korea, through strengthening dictatorships, through solidifying existing rivalries by arming the various parties, through non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, etc. etc.

In a world where PRC has bullied down each and every Asian power, and won supremacy in the world, where the Western powers have stopped challenging PRC's dominance in Asia - that is the worst case scenario.

The world order would collapse, because PRC would concentrate all power in its hands - all raw materials would flow towards China, all production capacity would be concentrated in China, all markets of the worlds would be monopolized by China - that is the worst case scenario.

A world order where China can point to any place in Asia, on land or in sea, and say that it belongs to it, - that is the worst case scenario.

Anybody who believes that an un-boxed China is in the world's best interest, has closed his eyes to the nature of China and its regime - it is a bully, it is undemocratic, and it is vicious.

It is more than visible in its spat with Japan over the Senkaku islands.

Preparing for the worst case scenario means resisting China everywhere one can. It means forcing China to accept the ethics of the world and be a good world-citizen. Preparing for the worst case scenario does not mean, wagging the tail and walking off into China's camp without a murmur.

A multi-polar Asia is absolutely important for Asia and the world.

[RamaY]

^ I guess the point is that

A society's progress cannot come at the expense of another society.

[Manishw]

x posting:

ASEAN invites India, US to keep China in check

The presence of India and the United States at a meeting on the Asia-Pacific region’s security architecture, being organised by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) for the first time next month, is likely to make China uncomfortable. China has long-standing sovereignty disputes over sections of the South China Sea — which contain valuable reserves of oil and natural gas — with four ASEAN members: Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. It has repeatedly stressed that it wants to resolve its differences without any external interference.

Beijing has been increasingly belligerent in stressing its claims with these much smaller countries. It may well perceive India and the US’s participation in the meet being held in Vietnam — Defence Minister A.K. Antony will travel to Hanoi on October 11 — as the first step towards just the kind of power balancing it wants to avoid.

Apart from Asean members, eight more countries have been invited: the six neighbour countries that are already associated with Asean without being members (India, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea), along with two newcomers: the US and Russia.

“China will find itself in a spot at the meeting. The US, Russia and India add to the forum’s influence. These countries will read the riot act to China for its growing assertiveness,” said Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak (retd), strategic affairs expert.

[Pulikeshi]

A multi-polar Asia is absolutely important for Asia and the world.

Couple of points:

1. Asia is the worlds largest and most populated continent - less than 30% land, 60% of people.

2. Western view somehow excludes Europe from Asia, but if you stare at the map its
There is as yet a dearth of the Eastern view on how the world look

3. There is no inherent benefit for India by striving for a Multi-polar Asia -
That posture is considered by India as non-threatening to others in Asia, but no one is fooled.

4. Key question to ask is not how and when China in the form of PRC will come to an end.
The correct question to ask is what is in India's interest in a post collapsed PRC world.
As a China (even if it is not a maximal land state) will exist post that event as well.

[naren]

I don't disagree with the points you have mentioned, but should we not plan for the worst case scenario and hope for the best.

Ofcourse, isn't that what we are doing in this thread, analyzing all possible scenarios ? BRF would, AFAIK, certainly welcome all view points. No fatwas against that.

It is certainly possible that PRC might fall, as it is hard to predict the future, but 1.2 billion people cannot plan their future based on that assumption, I would think.

Swinging to the other extreme - that PRC will have solid 10% growth for the next 50 years and we must suck up to China is also an assumption, 1.2 billion people cannot plan with.

And the Chinese origin "well wishers" here who say that we must do so, reminds me only of Saruman giving his precious "advise" to Gandalf.

Saruman: "You did not seriously think that a hobbit could contend with the will of Sauron? There are none who can."

Saruman: "Against the power of Mordor there can be no victory. We must join with him, Gandalf. We must join with Sauron. It would be wise, my friend. "

Gandalf: "Tell me, 'friend', when did Saruman the wise abandon reason for madness?!"

May be Sun Tzu should have said:

"All warfare is based on deception.
PS: It works only once."

[TonyMontana]

And the Chinese origin "well wishers" here who say that we must do so, reminds me only of Saruman giving his precious "advise" to Gandalf.

Saruman: "You did not seriously think that a hobbit could contend with the will of Sauron? There are none who can."

Saruman: "Against the power of Mordor there can be no victory. We must join with him, Gandalf. We must join with Sauron. It would be wise, my friend. "

Gandalf: "Tell me, 'friend', when did Saruman the wise abandon reason for madness?!"

Awesome! I just had this mental image of India saying:"Thus Shall Not PASS!!!" and then the "red dlagon" falling down, but dragging India in the last second. India then fights the "red dlagon" all the way down. Then returns later not longer India the grey, but now India the white.

[Rahul M]

LOTR fans never miss an opportunity to discuss the trilogy do they ?

[Pranav]

x-post from Indian interests thread:

Swamy's tweet:

@NishkaK :No one in Parliament asks Antonia and Raul why they fibbed on their educational qualification,or why Bianca was in Macao recently?

http://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/25266286976

If Gandhi family is transferring ill-gotten gains from Switzerland to Macao, what does it mean for India-China relations?

[brihaspati]

Akalam bhai,
the question is not about when and how PRC is going to fail. The PRC regime - the CPC and PLA has to be made to fail and not linger on like Pak and spread around the rot. Pak cannot be solved without solving the CPC+PLA problem and the CPC+PLA problem is not solved without solving the Pak.

But this is a matter for a new mindset and thinking in a future Indian regime.

[brihaspati]

x-post from Indian interests thread:

Swamy's tweet:

@NishkaK :No one in Parliament asks Antonia and Raul why they fibbed on their educational qualification,or why Bianca was in Macao recently?

http://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/25266286976

If Gandhi family is transferring ill-gotten gains from Switzerland to Macao, what does it mean for India-China relations?

Not really anything. Macao is a historical transit point for not only money but the opium trade too and and there are long standing speculations that this relationship has thrived between the "west" [especially the secret services and establishment of one particular country that first promoted this lovely trade between the east and the west] and China even through regime changes in both.

But it is now a major transit point for China vs Western flows - information, intrigue, drugs trade whatever. It may not be wise to pinpoint individual movements. They cannot individually decide things of national import - if they are really acting so then an entire coterie or network from within India has decided to do so.

One of the tricks, well established coteries do, is to pretend that the overt action was the result of individual leader's decision. Sometimes in extreme cases, the individual is sacrificed in order that the network or the coterie and their dependents can continue as before.

[ramana]

To add to Pulikeshi's post.
From the eastern shores of Africa to the Plain of Jars in Laos,To the Syrian desert, its Indian influence. PRC has influence east of that. So ithere are already two poles in Asia.

[brihaspati]

Regaining influence over eastern Africa would be crucial. However, without actual military bases around the mouth of the Red Sea - which means presence in Somalia and Yemen and possibly Kenya. Moreover a chain of bases stretched across the Gulf would be necessary to protect any such far outreach to the Red Sea.

None of the countries would be favourable, and even if they are they would not be allowed to because KSA and Islamists reign supreme there. Even if GOI or the political forces behind it try their best to appear profound supporters of the theology, they will still not be trusted and allowed to advance here.

Both Somalia and Yemen are descending into being no-mans' land into which the west will not easily descend after Black Hawk down. There is an opportunity but needs a careful planning and clarity of ideology.

[Pratyush]

The different societies can only prosper if they decide to live and let live. But how do you ensure that when one of the two is saying live and let die.

That is the challenge for the Indian nation at present. Moreover, I feel regardless of what India does, it continuing existence as a unified entity and increasing prosperity represents a threat to nearly every one of our neighbors.

The threat is not of military domination but rather from the idea of the Indian republic it self. Nothing that India can do will reduce the threat presented from India to our neighbors.

In that situation our neighbors cannot really be faulted if they seek to reinforce their nations and the national narratives by showing the separateness from India. This in turn allows the different powers to meddle in the Internal affairs of the Indian near abroad.

If this is the threat, then the opportunity also exists to co-opt the elites and the various power centers in the Indian near abroad into the Indian economic prosperity sphere.

The question I have is how to do this. What can India do for the power elites that will make them want to be apart of the Indian experiment.

I feel the greatest advantage lies in India's ability to co-opt the competing ideologies and give then room to express themselves within a democratic framework. But I am at a loss to understand why this ability to co-opt differing world view has not been able to achieve a greater integration with the rest of the near abroad.

If we can answer this question, we will have gone a long way towards managing the future of the Subcontinent.

Added later,

It is important for us to have good relationships and stability in the Indian near abraod as it will free our minds to persue our aims in the wider world.

JMT

[Pratyush]

Regaining influence over eastern Africa would be crucial. However, without actual military bases around the mouth of the Red Sea - which means presence in Somalia and Yemen and possibly Kenya. Moreover a chain of bases stretched across the Gulf would be necessary to protect any such far outreach to the Red Sea.

None of the countries would be favourable, and even if they are they would not be allowed to because KSA and Islamists reign supreme there. Even if GOI or the political forces behind it try their best to appear profound supporters of the theology, they will still not be trusted and allowed to advance here.

Both Somalia and Yemen are descending into being no-mans' land into which the west will not easily descend after Black Hawk down. There is an opportunity but needs a careful planning and clarity of ideology.

Could the visit to the KSA by the PM earlier this year allong with soothing noises made by both the parties have been the first step towards crafting this strategy.

[brihaspati]

One of the problems with the above is that for Islamic countries and Islamists in areas like Somalia or Yemen - if India remains allied with USA or Russia then India is to be feared and hated. If India is not allied to either, then India is still the hated land of Kaffir and with resources rich for looting - since all the worlds fruits have been "promised" to the muslims.

Moreover, India has never really crushed and eliminated Islamist opponents and marauders in the post Independence period - at least not in the manner that Islamists themselves understand as "crushinh" or "elimination". So India is in general seen as weak and hesitant before Islamism.

This can complicate things. First they may plan to utilize the resources promised by India in negotiations for bases to strengthen their own Islamist forces and then engage India in continuous low intensity warfare passed on to the shoulders of "non-state workers". Second, the calculation can be that if sufficiently sadistic cruelty in classical tradition of the theology be perpetrated on captured Indians then India can be made to abandon the bases and military resources at the right moment.

If India really goes on to make bases here then it has to be prepared right from the beginning to have a long term target of systematically destroying Islamist factions, if necessary with matching brutality that Islamists try to perpetrate in their techniques of psychological intimidation. The brits established their control over these areas by a brutal elimination of resistance - at a time when Arab induced Islamism was even stronger in these areas.

[RajeshA]

Published on Mar 23, 2001
By Sirajul Haque Memon
Genesis of Separatist Sentiment in Sindh: Free Sindh Blog

The Sindhis feel that they are a separate and full-fledged nation, according to the recognized political, social as well as cultural principles. They are proud of their past, their language, their culture, their literature and their folklore. They are proud of the resistance movements of their forefathers against the Greeks (Alexander the Great), the Achaemenids (Darius-I), the Arabs, the Taghlaks, the Mughals and the Arghuns, Nadir Shah and the Afghan marauders like Shah Shuja and lastly the British.

The battles of Miani and Dabo against the British which resulted in the enslavement of Sindhis have a central place in their folklore and poetry, especially the bravery and sacrifices of heroes like Hoshu. Language and literature play a very vital part in the building blocks of nationalism - call it separatist sentiment or give it any other derogatory name. The fact is that Sindh has an extremely rich literature which has inspired its people for centuries to fight for their freedom and liberty.

It is in this background that the recent past has to be evaluated. The British introduced the people of Sindh to modern education through their mother-tongue. Sindhi language not only became a vehicle for education but it also acted as a political tool through the medium of journalism. By the 1930's, a number of daily and weekly newspapers were published from Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur.

[Manishw]

^ Another major faultline in the land of the pure oops the motherland of fault lines?

[brihaspati]

One of the things to keep in mind is that the Sindhi-nationalism intensified when the immigrants from India at Partition were demanding land and it intensified further when at least two regimes - one military and the other civilian - attempted some land reforms. Sindhi nationalism was seen as a good tool to rally the middle-landed peasants behind the feudal lords against land reforms.

How sincere will it be if the real dynamics of change in Pak comes to its door - overturning of land relations and ownership patterns - is something to be seen.

[RajeshA]

Published on Sep 28, 2010
By Lillian Lin
Taiwanese academic on a mission to study Buddhist heritage in Central Asia: Taipei Times

Since 1999, Roland Lin (林志宏) has traveled to Central Asia a dozen times to study Buddhist heritage sites. As a follower and researcher of Buddhism, he considers it his mission to promote public awareness of Buddhist civilizations in the region along the ancient Silk Road.
Lin, a specialist with the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), was invited to attend an Exhibition of Buddhist and Taoist Artifacts in Taipei from Thursday last week through yesterday.

At the exhibition, Lin spoke about his work and the progress that he and the Oriental Cultural Heritage Sites Protection Alliance (OCUHESPA) have made in rediscovering Buddhist heritage sites.

“It was long forgotten that between the fifth century and the ninth century, Buddhism was the predominant religion in Central Asia before the arrival of Islam,” Lin said in an interview.

However, under communist rule, there was hardly any trace of Buddhism in the region, especially in the former republics of the Soviet Union, he said.

The history and cultural heritage of the five newly independent republics — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan — were suppressed for ideological reasons during the Soviet Union years, while many Buddhist heritage sites were destroyed and others were abandoned, he said.

“It was not until the 1990s the issue began to get increasing attention internationally, and UNESCO and some non-governmental organizations have been seeking to restore history,” said the Yilan County-born academic, who is now based in Paris.

He cited in particular the efforts of OCUHESPA, which was established in 2007 by a group of academics from Asia and Europe at the initiative of Buddhist nun Ven Shih Shi-huei.

In July 2008, the alliance convened its first international conference on Buddhist heritage sites protection in Lumbini — a Buddhist pilgrimage site in Nepal where Buddha Gautama was born.

Consolidating the efforts of many international academics and archeologists, the alliance helped to have Lumbini declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. Kapilavastu, where Buddha received his enlightenment, was also named a protected site.

“The governments of Central Asian countries in general do not have sufficient funds or personnel to conduct research, survey or protect heritage sites, therefore the initiatives of NGOs such as OCUHESPA are important,” Lin said.

Academics with the alliance usually offer their expertise and help governments raise funds for preservation projects, he added.

Lin holds a doctorate degree in history of art from the Sorbonne University in Paris and is a program specialist in the Asia and Pacific section of the World Heritage Center. In the past decade, he has been invited by several governments and academic institutes in Asia to advise on cultural heritage rehabilitation projects.

The rediscovery and preservation of Buddhist heritage sites in Central Asia is one of his lifelong tasks, he said.