Managing Chinese Threat

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RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:RajeshA, The true nationalists across the spectrum are quiet and watching the scenario develop. No need to move and show the houbara.
ramana garu,

I don't doubt that.

What I have noticed is that countries like TSP and PRC have armies and armies of such 'nationalists', who can be activated at a moment's notice, to show displeasure of the populace on an issue of national importance. China has its 'netizens', who can pick up an issue and show that they are all fire and brimstone. Pakistan too has its rage boys.

These are all instruments of state most often used to show that the government cannot yield to pressures from outside, and so the other party would have to compromise, but not they.

Houbara is good! I see it as a pity that India does not use such groups.

Of course, it has the added effect, that patriotism increases in the populace, as these groups invigorate the passive population.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

No they are used. Recall the CTB debate etc.

Indian has studiously avoided showing a strategic face for that will be the group to be neutered.
No point in showing it unless you want to use it. Better to appear dysfunctional and astrategic so that kala vasiyat types have to give lectures in India. Its the same fellow who advised US Admin in his Plan B proposal that US should warn India that they (US) wont take care of India's problems visavis TSP!
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shiv »

RajeshA wrote:
What I have noticed is that countries like TSP and PRC have armies and armies of such 'nationalists', who can be activated at a moment's notice, to show displeasure of the populace on an issue of national importance. China has its 'netizens', who can pick up an issue and show that they are all fire and brimstone. Pakistan too has its rage boys.

These are all instruments of state most often used to show that the government cannot yield to pressures from outside, and so the other party would have to compromise, but not they.

Houbara is good! I see it as a pity that India does not use such groups.

Of course, it has the added effect, that patriotism increases in the populace, as these groups invigorate the passive population.
Rajesh - it also means that the government is an oligarchy with no opposition worth mentioning. When that is the case you have no groups to take a different view from the government. Every democracy suffers from groups who do exactly the opposite of what some people consider as patriotic.

Naturally, China and Pakistan find it easy.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Hari Seldon »

ramana wrote:No they are used. Recall the CTB debate etc.

Indian has studiously avoided showing a strategic face for that will be the group to be neutered.
No point in showing it unless you want to use it. Better to appear dysfunctional and astrategic so that kala vasiyat types have to give lectures in India.
Wow. +1 only, ramana garu.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:No they are used. Recall teh CTB debate etc.

Indian has studiously avoided showing a strategic face for that will be the group to be neutered.
No point in showing it unless you want to use it. Better to appear dysfunctional and astrategic so that kala vasiyat types have to give lectures in India. Its the same fellow who advised US Admin in his Plan B proposal that US should warn India that they (US) wont take care of India's problems visavis TSP!
Reminds me of a scenario where the wiseguy thinks you are too stupid to do what he says - jump in a dry well, so he demonstrates it by jumping in himself. :wink:
Last edited by RajeshA on 28 Sep 2010 21:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Lalmohan »

hey! its nice down here at the bottom of the well!! :)
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Sep 27, 2010
By Kim Tae-gyu
Korea more vulnerable to China threats than Japan: Korea Times
Although Japan has shown a very stern attitude on issues involving disputed territory, the country easily surrendered this time around as China reportedly halted shipment of rare earth elements although Beijing denies such maneuver.

“What if China adopts the strategy of stopping shipment of the materials to Korea amid bilateral political or economic disputes? We would be at a loss on how to deal with it,” said a Seoul analyst who asked not to be named.

Rare-earth elements refer to a collection of 17 chemical elements in the periodic table. They are indispensable in producing high-tech products or eco-friendly technologies such as electric cars, wind turbines and liquid crystal displays (LCDs).

Korea, home to the world’s top LCD manufacturers, does not produce them at all and depends wholly on imports to procure them. Last year, all of its 2,600 tons of demand were met by shipments from China.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

RajeshA, To me the quintessential Indian story is the "Brahmin and the Tiger". While folks concentrate on the two protogonists (Brahmin reprsenting the intellectual class, the tiger representing the oppressor), I concentrate on the jackal (wisdom of common Indian dehati) that manages to self-cage the tiger.

Ben Kingsley narrated a cartoon verision for the TV series "We have Tales". his intonation and diction conveyed the story forcefully to me.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Interesting analogy.

The 1962 moment

N.V. Subramanian writes:
...
27 September 2010: China's contempt for India's strategic capabilities and resilience would have doubtless risen after the huge ratty publicity attending the disastrous and shameful Commonwealth Games' organization. Whether or not such a link exists is besides the point (it does not), but there is danger that China will misinterpret such a connection, because it scarcely understands India, Indians, Indian democracy or Indian society.

And when China understands or misunderstands any rival power to be weak, the consequences could be harsh. So it is up to the Manmohan Singh government immediately to correct the picture with China, which is nearly regularly now showing one or the other signs of aggressiveness. The latest according to the wire services today is the doubling of hostile PLA border patrolling in parts of Ladakh where it is embarked upon illegal military infrastructure buildup. In the short- and medium-term too, India has to integrate itself to face China, because it is also undergoing political, military and politico-military transformations of its own that will hugely impact South Asia besides the rest of the world.

China will get a new leadership in twenty-twelve with vice-president Xi Jinping likely succeeding president Hu Jintao and vice-premier Li Keqiang perhaps premier Wen Jiabao. This is the succession picture as it looks now which could alter but seems unlikely. Xi does not fit any of the traditional slots of "populist" or "elitist" although he is both plus a "princeling" and part of the Shanghai faction. Li is more robustly "populist". But both suffer from the handicap of limited international exposure as do others of their generation particularly at a time when China, as the number two economy and a rising superpower, needs a markedly worldly-wise leadership.

This is not to suggest China is entering a phase where it may politically flounder but it certainly increases the responsibility on the existing leadership of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao to stabilize the country and contain its international concerns before handing over charge. At least some portions of China's current aggressiveness in India's northern and north-eastern borders, in the Indian Ocean, and in the South and East China Sea, may arise from anxieties of the current Chinese leadership seeing the future uncertainties....

In a nutshell, the military has become dominant in a logical and organic manner. But at the same time, the Chinese political leadership transformations have been opaque, hard to explain or understand, and the particular transition to Xi-Jinping-Li Keqiang, if it happens, is saturated with imponderables. It is of course dangerous to exaggerate the coming political shakeup in China. But it is also true that the country has to do considerable additional balancing now than ever before to stay on course, which may demand more from the next generation of Chinese leaders than they are capable of delivering. In other words, China has entered a period of flux, where the military while not anywhere close to seizing power is becoming dominant and nationally assertive.

Consequently, countries sharing land borders and seas with China growingly will feel its heat and be singed if they do not foresee and understand the dangers and take robust countermeasures. Specific to India, it would be perilous to let slip an impression abroad -- and especially to China -- that the CWG disaster reveals a lack of political will and somehow profoundly reflects India's strategic unpreparedness. It would not be an overstatement that China will misread a nineteen-sixty-two moment in this. ....
Also didn't Deng launch an attack on Vietnam to show his forcefulness after succeding Mao?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shiv »

ramana wrote:Interesting analogy.

The 1962 moment

N.V. Subramanian writes:
Interesting article but I can't see how anyone will mistake the CWG fiasco for national weakness. The opposite also should be true. Running games well is == national preparedness for war. Not sure how anyone can conclude that.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Sep 29, 2010
By Sachiko Sakamaki
Maehara Says China `Escalated' Tension Unnecessarily Over Boat Collision: Bloomberg
“It was regrettable as China’s response was escalated to the extreme,” Maehara, 48, said in a group interview today in Tokyo. “The people of the world have seen an aspect of China’s true nature.”
Yes, We Have!
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Published on Sep 29, 2010
Clinton Tells Maehara Senkakus Subject To Bilateral Security Treaty
NEW YORK (Kyodo)--The Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are covered by the Japan-U.S. security treaty that allows for Washington to retaliate against a military strike on Japanese territory, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara on Thursday amid rising tension between Japan and China over the islands, Maehara said.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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X-Posted from India and Japan: News and Discussion Thread

The Minute By Minute Account of Japan-China Row

Published on Sep 29, 2010
Conditions were ripe for an escalating dispute with China: Asahi Shimbun

Prime Minister Naoto Kan is a soft ass. Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara is the man, who can put Japan on the right path.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Fidel Guevara »

Just a hypothetical question, did the British have the necessary balance of forces after the end of WW2, to take Tibet from China and annex it to British India? I think China was in total chaos at that time, with the Communists fighting the KMT in a bloody civil war.

How would that have changed the future course of events? I mean, perhaps there would have been no change, and PRC would have invaded anyway and captured all that they now hold, but in 1962 instead of capturing Tibet in 1954.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by thayilv »

^^ Britain was ruined after WW2 , the British public was in no mood for another war. I think any attempt to keep Tibet would have only been successful had Indian forces been used. That would have been the only way the British could have annexed Tibet.

OTOH, why would they? They were busy trying to cut India off from Central Asia. Adding to Indian territories was not part of their list of priorities.

Just my two cents.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Lalmohan »

the US had already 'taken over' the british role in china, they were told by the US to get their musharraf's out of Asia and back to Europe, China and all things Chinese (as long as it was KMT) was US's fief
this is what the US does to its closest allies ;-)
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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X-Posted from The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR Thread

Published Sep 28, 2010
China dominates Maldives tourism market: Haveeru Online
MALE, September 28 (HNS) – China has become the highest contributor to the tourist arrivals to the Maldives for the first time with 15.3 percent of the total arrivals.

According to Tourism Ministry statistics, China beats UK and Italy with 77,644 tourists visiting the Maldives from January to August – a 137 percent increase to the 32,709 in the first eight months of last year.

While Chinese tourists visiting the Maldives increased by 142 percent to 14,998 in August, China topped the list in July 2010, with 12,449 tourists.

UK is now on the second with 14.9 percent as 75,250 tourists came from the country over the past eight months. Tourist arrivals from Italy stayed at 12.6 percent with 63,950.

The statistics reveal a 22 percent increase compared to last year’s, as 506,179 tourists visited in the past 8 months. A 27 percent increase was observed last month with 66,315 tourists.

While tourists used 68.9 percent of the registered 23,401 beds in resorts, hotels, and safari, the occupancy rate increased from 71.9 percent to 75.5. Tourists stayed 7.7 days on average compared to last year’s 8.1.

The government promoted Maldives tourism in China. Senior officials of the industry, however, expressed dissatisfaction over the decrease of tourist arrivals from Europe
Expect more Chinese to be settling down in Maldives to cater to the boom in tourism from China, and a China Town coming up near Marao, Maldives, China's new Navy Base.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by chaanakya »

Fidel Guevara wrote:Just a hypothetical question, did the British have the necessary balance of forces after the end of WW2, to take Tibet from China and annex it to British India? I think China was in total chaos at that time, with the Communists fighting the KMT in a bloody civil war.

How would that have changed the future course of events? I mean, perhaps there would have been no change, and PRC would have invaded anyway and captured all that they now hold, but in 1962 instead of capturing Tibet in 1954.
This is the wikipedia entry. on Tibet.

It seems that Chinese had very little control over Tibet and itself embroiled in Civil War could have done little to prevent such a course of action. However one should not forget that by the end of WW-II sentiments had changed and people an countries resented colonialism .British themselves were a waning power with its economy in ruins manpower severely depleted and certainly could ill afford to control tibet having decided to exit India. Nehru could not have permitted this course of action either. The only possible course of action could have been if India were to adopt such a policy.

British had a chance to co-opt Tibet in the Dominion in 1904 Anglo Tibetan Treaty and in 1906 Sino British Treaty. But a read of Sino British treaty gives impression that China played its cards well though it could not control Tibet for a long time.

There is another point, British would have freed Tibet before leaving India as it did in case of Berma aka Myanmar. and created a fractious subcontinent by dividing India. They had certainly feared that India without Border issues to check it would rise very rapidly in World ranks.

Britishers did great service to India in some areas but they did great disservice worthy of them being called a permanent hidden enemy.
1912-1951: de facto independence

The Dalai Lama returned to Tibet from India in July 1912 (after the fall of the Qing dynasty), and expelled the amban and all Chinese troops.[88] In 1913, the Dalai Lama issued a proclamation that stated that the relationship between the Chinese emperor and Tibet "had been that of patron and priest and had not been based on the subordination of one to the other."[42] "We are a small, religious, and independent nation," the proclamation continued.[42] For the next thirty-six years, Tibet enjoyed de facto independence while China endured its Warlord era, civil war, and World War II. Some Chinese sources argue that Tibet was still part of China throughout this period.[89] Tibet continued in 1913-1949 to have very limited contacts with the rest of the world and Lhasa was for foreigners the prohibited city. Very few governments did anything resembling a normal diplomatic recognition of Tibet. The Chinese governments continued, from time to time, to assert their right to suzerainty in Tibet.[90] In 1932, the National Revolutionary Army, composed of Muslim and Han soldiers, led by Ma Bufang and Liu Wenhui defeated the tibetan army in the Sino-Tibetan War when the 13th Dalai Lama tried to seize territory in Qinghai and Xikang. It was also reported that the central government of China encouraged the attack, hoping to solve the "Tibet situation", because the Japanese had just seized Manchuria. They warned the Tibetans not to dare cross the Jinsha river again.[91] A truce was signed, ending the fighting.[92][93] The Dalai Lama had cabled the British in India for help when his armies were defeated, and started demoting his Generals who had surrendered[94]
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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X-Posted from The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR

Published on Sep 26, 2010
By Wang Zhaokun
Maldives woos Chinese investors: Global Times
The Maldives' ambassador to China, Ahmed Latheef, said he welcomes investment from China on resorts to boost development of local tourism and is calling for more attention to be directed toward the country's battle against climate change.

"The Maldives and China have enjoyed excellent bilateral relations, and there are many areas that can be developed through Chinese involvement and engagement in the Maldives," Latheef said in an interview with the Global Times. "We would welcome initiatives from Chinese investors in the development of tourist resorts."

China's National Day holiday is drawing near, and it is expected that many Chinese will go to the Maldives. Statistics show that 41,511 Chinese tourists visited the Maldives in 2008, an increase of 15.4 percent over 2007.

Chinese tourist arrivals in the Maldives have surpassed all expectations of the industry in recent years, according to Latheef. "At present, China is the second from the top after the UK," he said. "It is very likely that before the end of the year, China will top the list."

"The difficulty we have at the moment is that we do not have enough hotels or beds to cater to the growing market in China. Therefore, efforts are being made to develop new hotels and tourist resorts," Latheef added.
"We have wind throughout the year, but we do not have the turbines that turn the wind into energy," Latheef commented. "We have waves all around our tiny islands, but we do not have the motors to turn them into energy either."
You are now entering Maldivian Autonomous Region of People's Republic of China!
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:RajeshA, To me the quintessential Indian story is the "Brahmin and the Tiger". While folks concentrate on the two protogonists (Brahmin reprsenting the intellectual class, the tiger representing the oppressor), I concentrate on the jackal (wisdom of common Indian dehati) that manages to self-cage the tiger.

Ben Kingsley narrated a cartoon verision for the TV series "We have Tales". his intonation and diction conveyed the story forcefully to me.
ramana garu,

I did give some thought to the tale. I would say, my disposition is towards finding out what is the cage made up of. :)
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Hari Seldon »

>>I would say, my disposition is towards finding out what is the cage made up of.

Mental gymnastics, for the most part. IMVVHO of course.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Hari Seldon wrote:>>I would say, my disposition is towards finding out what is the cage made up of.

Mental gymnastics, for the most part. IMVVHO of course.
My definition of mental gymnastics is: If you can't change the world, change your view of it ("twist your own mind"). This in my view is a very defeatist attitude.

In the tale of Brahmin and the Tiger, the cage is the solution, for putting the tiger away for good, without expending too much of energy or picking a fight.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Isn't Iraq and Af-Pak a cage? Recall the many overtures to NDA to send a division to Iraq for peace-keeping?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

"1) Great leap forward
2) Genocide in Tibet
3) Supporting Genocidal and terrorist govts in Darfur, Pakistan and North Korea."

Don't forget the Chinese support to the genocidal Pol Pot and his sadistic Khmer Rouge.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

The threat emanating from People's Republic of China towards India and Asia in general is becoming all the more apparent to all. This challenge needs to be faced head on.

Often the problem is that one talks about an active defense strategy, one is often accused of being a war-monger, and one is told India cannot take on China, so we should better not provoke the Dragon. This is useless thinking. If one does not act with strength, the opponent would have no enticement to seek peace. Bullies cannot be won over through appeasement. India has to learn the psychology of the bully, and that too of a very sophisticated bully. During the course of this thread I have come to the following suggestions for a strategy.

The peaceful strategy of increasing India's strength relative to China should continue. That means pursuing strategic partnerships with world powers; aggressive wooing of strategically located smaller countries as well as countries with abundance of raw materials; high economic growth, steady build up of military strength. Besides the obvious, we need game changers, though.
  1. PoK Strategy: We need to block China's efforts to break out of the East Asian box. India needs to either take down Pakistan Army, or dismember Pakistan, or establish Indian rule over Gilgit-Baltistan cutting off Pakistan from land and air connectivity with China. India needs to do one of these things, what exactly and how needs to be given good amount of thought.
  2. IOR Strategy: We need to regain our prominence in the Indian Ocean Region and stop China from becoming an Indian Ocean Region power. This effort is just as hard as the first one, as all countries in the IOR periphery would prove very welcoming of Chinese influence in order to balance off Indian or American influence in the region.
  3. Tibet Strategy: PRC is going to be very aggressive on the boundary dispute with India. India needs to be equally aggressive on this issue. The more aggressive would ultimately win. Appeasement here is suicidal.
  4. ASA Strategy: India would be most effective in containing China's ambitions in Asia to become an undisputed power, if India builds a credible Asian Security Alliance (ASA) of like-minded countries in Asia who too are wary of China, and would want to ensure that PRC follows a peaceful path in Asia.
IMHO, these pillars should definitely be part of a China containment strategy. It is not an offensive strategy, but an active defense strategy.

In the next posts I'll explore these strategies.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:Isn't Iraq and Af-Pak a cage? Recall the many overtures to NDA to send a division to Iraq for peace-keeping?
Those are cages indeed, but for Ameerkhan. In Af-Pak I have a suspicion that Pakistan played the part of the Jackal at the behest of the Chief of Jackals - PRC.

For PRC, we have to look for other cages.

Af-Pak-East-Turkestan could be one cage, but for that we have to halaal the jackal sitting in Rawalpindi and snatch its cage in Af-Pak for use against PRC.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Rony »

shiv wrote:
ramana wrote:Interesting analogy.

The 1962 moment

N.V. Subramanian writes:
Interesting article but I can't see how anyone will mistake the CWG fiasco for national weakness. The opposite also should be true. Running games well is == national preparedness for war. Not sure how anyone can conclude that.
That "anyone" in my opinion does not include neither the Chinese nor the "west". Indians should stop thinking that everyone thinks like us.I have seen couple of articles from the western commentators linking the CWG mess with the prospects of Indian economy in the future and the general state of national health. I haven't seen any chinese media commentary on the CWG . But having interacted with a lot of chinese netizens in other forums, i can say that the article is not completely untrue.Almost all of the chinese netizens with whom i am interacting , are having some weird kind of happiness looking at the CWG.They are directly linking the CWG to India's strategic preparedness.In any hypothetical India-China military scenario, the chinese netizens are by default bringing CWG mess into their arguments.

In a way, it is good because the chinese will underestimate our capabilities but in a way its bad because that very same thinking will make the chinese to take some stupid decision.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by svinayak »

Rony wrote: I have seen couple of articles from the western commentators linking the CWG mess with the prospects of Indian economy in the future and the general state of national health. I haven't seen any chinese media commentary on the CWG . But having interacted with a lot of chinese netizens in other forums, i can say that the article is not completely untrue.Almost all of the chinese netizens with whom i am interacting , are having some weird kind of happiness looking at the CWG.They are directly linking the CWG to India's strategic preparedness.In any hypothetical India-China military scenario, the chinese netizens are by default bringing CWG mess into their arguments.

In a way, it is good because the chinese will underestimate our capabilities but in a way its bad because that very same thinking will make the chinese to take some stupid decision.
This is in the long term good. Nation will learn from how they are perceived by others in the world. This dose of reality will change the next generation into looking at the rest of the world and nations in fresh eyes.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Kukreja »

Rony wrote:Almost all of the chinese netizens with whom i am interacting , are having some weird kind of happiness looking at the CWG.They are directly linking the CWG to India's strategic preparedness.
hmmm....what kind of conclusions did they come to about China's strategic preparedness after these things below happened? that its all for show and its all built on a weak foundation? its all going to come crumbling down once its true face is exposed?

Image

were they as happy when this bridge of styrofoam/trash collapsed?
Image
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by svinayak »

RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Sep 27, 2010
Wen to visit in Dec, as India hosts the world's who's who: Business Standard
Wen’s decision to visit India comes at a particularly touchy time in India-China relations. Singh has expressed concern about China’s “new assertiveness” with respect to India. It also comes set against the backdrop of China’s confrontation with Japan and other East and Southeast Asian neighbours. Singh visited Beijing in January 2008. Wen was in India in April 2005
Important thing is to welcome the cute panda, give him samosas, and to continue with any plans to contain Chinese expansionism in India's strategic space.

Don't be fooled by the glib talking.

If India acts politely but strongly, Wen would come again. If not, India would have to crawl on the floor of the imperial court of the Chinese.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by r_subramanian »

A sane voice urging the right action against Chinese bullying
Don't kowtow to the Chinese
IS this the year that China's leadership lets us all know that it is determined not to abide by routine international norms but will use raw power to take whatever it wants?
That is too strong a conclusion just yet, but it has certainly been a year of rugged behaviour from Beijing, behaviour that we should study closely.
Consider, first, the contrasting cases of Stern Hu and Zan Qixiong.
...
We will never know if Hu was remotely guilty of anything. We do know that corruption is rife in China and Hu was the only foreign executive singled out by the Chinese authorities this way.
We also know the context. The Chinese were annoyed by the prices they were paying for Australian minerals and deeply furious that their bid for a big equity stake in Rio Tinto had failed
...
Now consider Zan's case. Zan is a Chinese fishing boat captain. He was plying his trade in the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Japan considers these islands to be part of Japan and exercises normal control over them. China also claims the islands, as it does much of the maritime domain of northeast and Southeast Asia.
Zan's boat was approached by the Japanese navy. Now, all over the world, what does an illegal fisherman do if approached by a national coastguard? Universally, the fisherman runs away.
But in Zan's case, according to the Japanese navy, he rammed the Japanese vessel. That is akin to piracy and is certainly equivalent to criminal damage.
...
At an ASEAN meeting this year, China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi furiously told the ASEANs that they were small nations while China was a big nation, and they should do as theywere told.
...
Three prudent responses are obvious. One is to engage China in multilateral institutions so it is enveloped in a web of rules and customs. Another is for nations to have a clear idea of their individual bottom lines, beyond which they will not retreat.
And the third is for everyone to attend to their armed forces, so that a stable balance of power and deterrence are maintained.
Then the risk of fateful Chinese miscalculation is diminished. Pre-emptive capitulation, as some are now counselling, would be the worst policy for everyone.
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RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Published on Sep 28, 2010

A chorus against China: LiveMint
So long as China was perceived as a peaceful rising power, the effort was, to use the language of international relations scholars, to “bandwagon” with it. Now that has changed to attempts at “balancing” China. Stephen Walt, a professor of political science at Harvard University, had argued recently that aggressive Chinese behaviour could “tip” countries in a balancing direction. That seems to be happening, as of now. It is important for India, often considered a bulwark against China, to pursue a higher level of politico-military cooperation with Vietnam and Japan more seriously than it has so far. It will be in India’s security interests, and those of its friends, to do so.
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Published on Sep 30, 2010
By Ashok K Mehta
India loses the plot: Daily Pioneer
India should fear that the Hambantota port constructed by a Chinese consortium could become the southern anchor of its ‘String of Pearls’ around India. The refurbishment of Colombo harbour has also been bagged by China. Sri Lanka has drawn capital from India’s strategic silence over its pivotal military assistance in defeating the Tigers. This has helped Colombo to “look beyond Delhi” and openly acknowledge China’s key role in winning the war. Like Mr Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Nepal, Mr Rajapaksa has a grand vision of reducing dependence on India,courtesy China. Clearly New Delhi has lost the strategic plot in Sri Lanka. The outright defeat of the LTTE has diminished its influence in Colombo.

Former National Security Adviser MK Narayanan had warned Colombo in 2008 that it should not seek weapons from Pakistan and China when India was the pre-eminent power. It turns out that last week Sri Lanka’s most powerful Defence Secretary and brother of the President, Mr Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was in China, underwriting the Defence Cooperation Agreement with PLA Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde.

It should have been payback time for Sri Lanka. Instead Colombo has subtly introduced the China card, complimenting the traditional Pakistan linkage to balance India. With China burrowing deep into Nepal in the north, it is repeating the exercise in the south. India’s optimistic claims of “decisive influence without direct involvement in Sri Lanka” are no longer valid. Mrs Indira Gandhi’s ‘Monroe Doctrine’ has been superceded by ‘Mahinda Chinthan’.
Why use hollow words, when there is nothing to back them up?! :evil:
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Published on Sep 30, 2010
By The Hanoist
Obama's moral dilemma in Vietnam: Asia Times Online
The bigger reason, however, is that the US needs Vietnam to contribute toward stiffening ASEAN's spine, so that the 10-country body can collectively counterbalance China's regional ambitions. Most of ASEAN's member states have traditionally pursued an accommodationist policy toward Beijing. With its long history of repelling Chinese invasions, ingrained worries about the Sino threat, and its relative large size within ASEAN, Vietnam is uniquely positioned to rally others in the bloc.

In addition, the US would like to see Vietnam join other countries in the neighborhood - notably India, Australia, Japan and South Korea - to serve as a strategic counterweight to China. Though no US official has publicly said so, the American military also probably covets regular access to Vietnamese ports to project power into the South China Sea, where a third of the world's maritime trade flows yet which Beijing is increasingly treating as its own lake.
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Published on Sep 28, 2010
US’s decade-long Pakistan strategy has failed, says Robert Blackwill: Hindustan Times
India does have grand strategies towards the U.S. and China, he said. India’s decade-long, two-pronged grand strategy towards the US is to develop ever-closer ties while maintaining ITS freedom of action in the global arena.

“It’s working, despite the challenges,” he said, adding that disagreements over the future of Afghanistan, how to deal with China and outsourcing were just blips in an otherwise ever-deepening relationship. With respect to China, India tries to promote a positive, long-term relationship with Beijing, while hedging against a less than positive response, he said.

But both New Delhi and Washington are struggling over almost 18 months to develop a more aggressive set of policies in response to China’s various actions. For India, there was undoubtedly a “negative trend” in China’s treatment of border issues and Kashmir, he said.
The reluctance to build a more aggressive anti-China policy, seems to be on the side of the Indians.

India must insist with USA, that India and USA should both carry the burden of Chinese containment in proportion to their strength and USA must make sure that India suffers far less than China. This has to be the cornerstone of any USA-India Grand Understanding on China.
Last edited by RajeshA on 30 Sep 2010 04:03, edited 1 time in total.
svinayak
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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RajeshA wrote: For India, there was undoubtedly a “negative trend” in China’s treatment of border issues and Kashmir, he said.

Key is to create a positive trend for India using coercion or carrots.
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Acharya wrote:
RajeshA wrote: For India, there was undoubtedly a “negative trend” in China’s treatment of border issues and Kashmir, he said.

Key is to create a positive trend for India using coercion or carrots.
What more carrots? In 2009 alone the trade imbalance in China's favor was 16 billion USD. We are now importing Huawei telecom equipment. Kapil Sibal is introducing Mandarin in CBSE curriculum! We have exported all the carrots we had. We have no more. And still the bully won't let go!

It is time for danda!
svinayak
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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RajeshA wrote:
What more carrots? In 2009 alone the trade imbalance in China's favor was 16 billion USD. We are now importing Huawei telecom equipment. Kapil Sibal is introducing Mandarin in CBSE curriculum! We have exported all the carrots we had. We have no more. And still the bully won't let go!

It is time for danda!
Do you think trade is a carrot for PRC. What are they looking for. Do we know?
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Acharya wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
What more carrots? In 2009 alone the trade imbalance in China's favor was 16 billion USD. We are now importing Huawei telecom equipment. Kapil Sibal is introducing Mandarin in CBSE curriculum! We have exported all the carrots we had. We have no more. And still the bully won't let go!

It is time for danda!
Do you think trade is a carrot for PRC. What are they looking for. Do we know?
They have made their intentions more than clear. If we do not want to heed them, it is our own stupidity.

Their intentions are clear on Dalai Lama, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Gilgit-Baltistan, Nepal, Chittagong, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives, Indian Markets, Indian Raw Materials, India's tilt towards USA. Which carrots are you willing to offer, if you could? What makes you think, they'll be satisfied, if you did?
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