Managing Chinese Threat

[TonyMontana]

One may think that in the near future, when TSP becomes another state of Indian Union

Don't worry about that. After Tibet joins the Indian Union, there will be plenty of left over hardware to study.

[Bade]

Gee, one cannot claim TSP forget Tibet, it should no skin of China's nose, eh ? We will give you a corridor for your energy supplies. It is still part of mutual trade. Why does China care who owns the land as long as supplies flow.

[Anujan]

Dear TonyMontana-ji

A Honest question. What do you think of Tiananmen Square? Any chances of it happening again? Do you think excessive force was used?

[TonyMontana]

Gee, one cannot claim TSP forget Tibet, it should no skin of China's nose, eh ? We will give you a corridor for your energy supplies. It is still part of mutual trade. Why does China care who owns the land as long as supplies flow.

That's very generous of you. The Spice must flow!

[RajeshA]

The Spice must flow!

FWIW, Dune got that from the 'Indian Spice Trade'! So you're calling for Indian Renaissance!

[TonyMontana]

Dear TonyMontana-ji

A Honest question. What do you think of Tiananmen Square? Any chances of it happening again? Do you think excessive force was used?

I was in Beijing, heard the gun shots and saw the tank tracks left on the concrete. My mum was a university teacher at that time. She was at the square for many nights looking after her students. Everyone knew what was gonna happen when they pulled out the fresh faced Beijing Garrison and moved the taned battle ready "out-of-state" troops in. Most of the kids from Beijing all went home, as well as the teachers. The ones left are the hardcore and mostly out-of-town students with no where to go.

Any chance of it happening again? Yes. When stability is treatened.

Was excessive force used? Yes.

Now here comes the clencher:
What do I think of the students?
I think they are Heroes. Martyrs that died to allow a New China to emerge. They influenced the reforms that did come after that.

Now you might wonder how I can be pro-CCP and pro-student at the same time.

Let me say this one more time.

The CCP is so entrenched in PRC, the only way to remove them is through force. The suffering that comes from that, and the uncertainty of the outcome is unacceptable for me. We are stuck with the CCP. For now, they are doing their part of the mandate of heaven. Till they change what they are doing. We have to back them. We have to chose the less of the two evils. That is our burden to bear.

[Hari Seldon]

Despite myself, can't help but admire the tenacity and spunk of TonyM.

The man seems to have an answer to every question and hypothetical and solution to every problem.

That kind of clarity, more often than not, comes from certitude whereas our ever-present doubt, diversity in the face of adversity and difficulty in agreeing upon any one thing stands in stark contrast only. Don't get me wrong, am not saying any one way is good or bad, just that they are so markedly different only.

Am reminded of the SS pledge:

We will follow the cause even if it is wrong.

Jai ho.

[Bade]

^^^ That is why the line of argument we see often everywhere, "Chinese people are different from CPC/PLA" is all bogus only. In all my years of having worked with all kinds of Chinese I can count only a few who have openly questioned the mother country, and even those few are quite nationalistic. This is true whether they are from Taiwan/HK or Mainland. To some extent even the Singaporean/Malaysian emigres also show similar behavior but more nuanced. Tony-ji is far more open than many others. It is quite refreshing to get his view so openly. Very rare I should say.

[naren]

The CCP is so entrenched in PRC, the only way to remove them is through force. The suffering that comes from that, and the uncertainty of the outcome is unacceptable for me. We are stuck with the CCP. For now, they are doing their part of the mandate of heaven. Till they change what they are doing. We have to back them. We have to chose the less of the two evils. That is our burden to bear.

Chinese people after having gone through Mao era - perhaps the worst period ever of human history, have developed Stockholm syndrome. "He rapes me and beats me, but he also gives me a little bit of food. So I will not rebel" - that seems to be the mindset. But how long will this facade be maintained ? About 100,000 demonstrations every year - not too long before the next revolucion it seems.

But,but,but I'm onlee a yeevil yindu betting on Chinese failure. Facts, even the ones released by the CCP dont mean sheet. Remember Colbert's "truthiness" law ? China would win the economic race. China would make India spend itself to bankruptcy. China will befriend the tiny-as-sheet nations around India and successfully destroy us with their "Go" strategy. China is "the dos equis man" among countries. Stay thirsty my friends.

/s

[PrasadZ]

Despite myself, can't help but admire the tenacity and spunk of TonyM.

+1 to that !
Wish TonyM and China all the very best. Of course, I continue to believe that China and India are strategic enemies, but, if this is the quality of the opposition, its a honour to enter the field!

[Pulikeshi]

借刀殺人 - Kill with a borrowed knife.
Always nice to have someone do the dirty work when needed.

隔岸觀火 - Watch the fires burning across the river.
While you're sorting out problems. China is building strength.

趁火打劫 - Loot a burning house.
Crisis create opportunities. Generating crisis, can be used to generate leverage.

The Chinese curse of the Thirty Six Stratagems on India!

Of course stratagems of Wáng Jìngzé are a ruse not to be mistaken with strategy.
Nevertheless, it is illuminating to get a peek into the psyche in an untarnished way.

If one could use Europe, a part of Brihat (greater) Asia, as an experiment that occurred in the previous centuries,
then one can extrapolate that none of the countries in Europe could out maneuver each other
and become an unchallenged power. In the meanwhile, they reduced themselves to
insignificance by battling two world wars and now creating, what next to the mandarins is
another infamous bureaucracy called, the EU that make a pachyderm seem nimble as a ballet dancer!

On the other corner of Asia - India and China may repeat this mistake all over again.
However, what is more immediate is to ponder if the 'rogue' states that China is using is
very similar to the use of Pirates by the British to attempt their hegemony over continental Europe
or the Islamists by the US to attempt their control over Asia.

[naren]

The Chinese curse of the Thirty Six Stratagems on India!

I hope LMU ishtudents tranjlate eet in halal pingrezi.

Salam

[Anujan]

37th goes something along the lines of "Man entering sideways through airport turnstile going to Bangkok"

[Dhiman]

The CCP is so entrenched in PRC, the only way to remove them is through force. The suffering that comes from that, and the uncertainty of the outcome is unacceptable for me.

Its good you believe that (one step closer to the truth), but from what I know most Chinese still believe this lie that economic growth and stability would not have been possible without an authoritarian regime such as CCP.

Let's try to put it in more concrete terms: India's mean economic growth rate over last 5 years is 8.42%; while as, China's mean economic growth rate over last 5 years is 10.27%. Given that, your authoritarian dividend over the last five years is 1.8%, but this "authoritarian dividend" itself is disputable, because most of it may be just because of the nature of growth curve benefiting from China's economic reforms that happened 10 years before Indian economic reforms.

We are stuck with the CCP. For now, they are doing their part of the mandate of heaven.

If by "mandate of heaven" you mean China's economic growth, then rest assured CCP is NOT having any positive influence on China's economic growth. So I am curious, in what way do you think CCP is doing their part?

Till they change what they are doing. We have to back them.

Why will they change if you don't want them to change?

India is growing inspite of your government, not because of it.

There are two things governments should never never do: 1) push economic growth rates, because it really doesn't help much, but only leads to problem such as western financial crisis, and 2) retard economic growth rate by imposing a "planned economy" as was the case in India before 1991. The part where a government can do better is with corruption, education, social development, national defense etc and those only go into improving the economy and standard of living in long term (30+ years).

The Jingoes are taking the bait of the PLA and would love to make the "probing" and incursions a big deal. You have to ask yourself, why is China doing this? By creating this situation for "free", it can used later in a bid to 拋磚引玉. Throwing out a brick to get a jade back. What trade concession would a Indian PM make to the Chinese to be the PM that settled the Sino-Indian border? Jingoes on BRF might not. But I can't say the same for your politicians.

As of now, China's economy is pretty much dependent on the west and in many ways controlled by western companies using China as a production base. Indian economy is based on domestic growth and hence not as dependent upon the west. Surely one major consideration of any India-China spat will be who gets to control the huge Indian market at the end - Chinese companies, Indian companies, or Western companies.

[Philip]

I must thank Shiv for his amusing anecdote,but guys,let me tell you that it does work! He!He!He!

[RajeshA]

I must thank Shiv for his amusing anecdote,but guys,let me tell you that it does work! He!He!He!

A crow in hand, is better than twenty peahens in the bush!

The crows gives you the training for the peahens!

[RajeshA]

Published on Jun 17, 2010
China wants Nordic railway link: Barents Observer

A railway connection from China, through Russia, the Nordic countries and to the Norwegian port of Narvik might not be far from becoming reality, Swedish Communications Minister Åsa Torstensson maintains.
The railway line is subject for discussion at a two-day transport meeting in Haparanda, northern Sweden, this week. The meeting includes representatives of the Nordic countries, Russia and China, Swedish Radio reports.

-The Chinese want to do business, and that is the background for their big interest in the transport corridor, Leif Zetterberg, State Secretary in the Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications, told the broadcaster.

-This is not necessarily far from becoming reality, Minister Torstensson adds. She confirms that the Chinese Minister of Railways last summer visited Sweden to outline his country’s interest in the project. –He [the minister] was very clear about the huge possibilities with such a connection, Torstensson says.

During that same trip, the Chinese minister visited also Norway and met with Norwegian Minister of Transport Magnhild Meltveit Kleppa. The Norwegian minister after the meeting with the high-ranking Chinese official admitted to NRK that she was thrilled about the plans.

With the route, China would get a quick alternative connection via Haparanda to the Norwegian port of Narvik, where cargo can be reloaded onto vessels for further transport to Iceland and the USA.

The key condition for the plans is however that Russia endorses the plans and facilitates smooth transport.

Yup, where China is building corridors through the Arctic Ocean, through Russia, through PoK-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey corridor, through Malacca Straits, through Myanmar-Chittagong Corridor, etc., India is stuck and boxed in in South Asia, because in PoK not a blade of grass grows and Myanmar is China's backyard.

[RajeshA]

Published on Aug 25, 2010
Route through Northeast Passage faster than expected: Barents Observer

The first high-tonnage tanker to take the Northern Sea Route from Europe to Asia has arrived Pevek on the Chukotka Peninsula one day earlier than expected.
It took the 100 000 tons tanker “Baltica” 11 days to cover 2500 miles. The vessel is expected to arrive in Ningbo, China, in the first half of September, web site Portnews.ru reports.

As BarentsObserver reported, "Baltica" left Murmansk on August 14th.

“Baltica” is loaded with 70 000 tons of gas condensate from the company Novatek, Russia’s largest independent gas producer.

The fact that the tanker has covered the distance in less time than expected, shows the potential of the Northern Sea Route when it comes to cutting back on transport time and increasing cost efficiency of oil and gas deliveries to Asia and regions in the Pacific Ocean, the ship owner Sovcomflot says.

“Baltica” is loaded with 70 000 tons of gas condensate from the company Novatek, Russia’s largest independent gas producer. The tanker is followed by the nuclear ice breakers “Rossiya”, “Taymyr” and “50 years of Victory”. The latter has divers and specialists on oil spill clean-up as well as necessary equipment.

Sovcomflot plans to send a Suezmax class tanker through the Northeast Passage in 2011, web site Oilru.com reports. The tanker will be of ice class 1A Super or higher, and be able to go through one meter thick ice.

Murmansk

Published on Aug 26, 2010
”MV Nordic Barents” makes historic voyage: Barents Observer

For the first time ever, a bulk carrier with non-Russian flag is using the Northern Sea Route as a transit trade lane, when transporting iron ore from the Northern Norway to China via Arctic and Russian waters.
The historic transit is about one third shorter than traditional shipping routes. A strong Nordic-Russian partnership is behind this business adventure.

The international shipping industry will witness the historic event, when the vessel departs from the port of Kirkenes in Northern Norway within the next few weeks. BarentsObserver could already in July report about the planned shipping of iron ore concentrate from Kirkenes to China via the Arctic, and today it is confirmed that the deal on shipping will actually take place.

Russian authorities, the Northern Sea Route Administration under the Ministry of Transportation and Rosatomflot, the operator of the Russian national icebreaking fleet, have given the project their first-ever approval for a foreign flagged vessel to ship a cargo in transit from a foreign port to a foreign port through Russian waters.

One of the world’s few modern heavy ice-class bulk carriers - "MV NORDIC BARENTS" - will carry the 41,000 tons load from the port near the Norwegian mine in Kirkenes around the top of the world to Asia.

"MV NORDIC BARENTS" is an ice-class 1a ship. This is the highest conventional ice-class, and the partners in the project confirm to BarentsObserver that it was the only ship classification that the Russian authorities would allow for this transit.

Russian icebreakers operated by Rosatomflot will escort MV NORDIC BARENTS on its journey along the Northern Sea Route, in Europe also known as the North East Passage.

The trip across the Arctic is a challenging task that requires great experience and navigational skills. In cooperation with the Russians, the expedition will help build critical expertise and experience in navigating these demanding waters. Never before has a non-Russian bulk carrier sail all along this route.

It is the Norwegian Tschudi Shipping Company through its subsidiary Tschudi Arctic Transit and the Danish shipping company Nordic Bulk Carriers that together with Russian maritime authorities have worked in partnership to open the Northern Sea Route for the bulk carrier that will sail from Kirkenes soon.

- We are very excited about the opportunities the NSR will generate, says Felix H. Tschudi to BarentsObserver. Tschudi is Chairman of the Norwegian Tschudi Shipping Company and the largest shareholder of Northern Iron, the Australian ASX listed owner of the Sydvaranger iron ore mine.

- It has been our ambition for years, so we are very happy to finally have the opportunity to do this voyage. The Northern Sea Route can be of great importance for the companies in northern Scandinavia and on the Kola Peninsula which ship oil, gas, minerals and other raw materials to the increasingly important Asian markets, says Felix H. Tschudi.

According to the partners, the route has the potential to generate significant savings for both cargo and ship owners, and in addition during this voyage there is no threat of piracy.

Managing director in Nordic Bulk, Christian Bonfils, explains. - The Northern Sea Route shortens the distance to China by about one third, he says.

- This results in a significant reduction in fuel consumption and transportation time – and it also means much lower CO2 emissions. The fuels savings alone add up to approximately USD 180,000. Not only does this route open up opportunities for the mining industry, but also for Nordic Bulk Carriers; we are specialized in operating ice classed bulk carriers, and when we entered into a strategic cooperation with the owners of these specialized ships we quickly saw the unique potential of the ships. We are proud to be a partner in this project which emphasises our position as leading within this segment, says Christian Bonfils.

This year’s shipment will most likely be followed by more in the years to come. Due to the global warming, the icecap in the Arctic is retreating.

The shipping partners estimate that the Northern Sea Route will be open for transit voyages for two to four months per year during the early autumn.

[Arihant]

And Liu Xiaobo gets the Nobel Peace Prize...Fantastic!!

[RajeshA]

And Liu Xiaobo gets the Nobel Peace Prize...Fantastic!!

Yeah, I hope there is much pageant during the presentation of the Prize to his wife - Liu Xia. I also hope all those videos get uploaded so that the Chinese can have a look at how 'profitable' it can be to do some CPC criticism.

Somebody should institute a Yearly Prize for a Chinese with a Prize-Money of say a million USD for the best anti-CPC Essay!

[Pratyush]

The PRC is busy building the new silk road. We need to start thinking in terms of altering the policical fronters of the sub continent. Only then will our access to the new sil route be assured.

[Varoon Shekhar]

"As of now, China's economy is pretty much dependent on the west and in many ways controlled by western companies using China as a production base. Indian economy is based on domestic growth and hence not as dependent upon the west."

This is really interesting. When we read of all these Chinese products that are competing with Indian made goods, how many of them are really "Chinese" in the sense of ownership, management and control of process/technology? And, without letting one's thought run wild, to what extent, if any, is this foreign presence in China designed to counter the more independent, autonomous and autarkic( relatively speaking) countries like India? Atlanticists, far as one can see, have never been thrilled or supportive of the Indian mixed economy with a high degree of autarky for its private and public sector. And its stated goal of being independent and self sufficient.

[brihaspati]

For all the talk of strategy and other stuff, the reading of history is an important clue to the future. China could never really make any lasting impression culturally or ideologically or philosophically or civilizationally out of its boundaries. Those boundaries were also always much smaller in the territory they covered than China occupies now - and which was possible only because of a particular globalization of decisionmaking that took place under colonialism of the western kind.

Search out history - all China is searched fro and looked for and remembered for outside its confines - which by the way is very clearly indicated by the surviving portions of the "wall" - far too inland from the current borders claimed by PRC - are "commodities", silk, gunpowder, paper-printing, automatons, other technologies of war. If we project back the current tendencies - it is understandable that the process could have been very similar about "absorbing" other civilizations' innovations and producing them on a larger scale using the bureaucratic centralization of control over society.

It shows the strengths and weaknesses of the mindset that seems to have been permanently consolidated in the Chinese civilization : it can copy innovation of others and reproduce that innovation on a massive scale using bureaucratic homogenization of power and centralization. This includes ideological innovations like Communism and material innovations like the ipad. Problem is that this very strength in numerical multiplication and "commodity-fication" under bureaucratic mediocrity ultimately drives out innovation - even in ideas.

India on the other hand retained this essential quest and spirit of innovation and non-staionarity that is mistakenly represented and extended by some as "celebration of diversity only" (diversity is not the aim but a result of the search) which meant that India did not submit to single ideologies and while one part of the society did submit to totalitarian systems others rallied back to eventually defeat them.

As Tony Montana ji so candidly reveals in his attitude - that he is unable to think beyond the CPC ideologically, and projects accepting it because of "commodity" values [the CPC rule == commodity production]. That spirit of innovation in challenging existing beliefs, wisdoms and "what is", is lacking in the Chinese civilization. This is why there is such a great obsession about "tactics" [the exact details of feints and ruses] and which the Chinese and their admirers outside applaud as "great strategy" - but which never really gave them any protection from invaders.

It is the singular barrenness of innovation in vision that characterizes the Chinese civilization so far. Also the factor that will stagnate Chinese society and create conditions for "invasions" that the prevailing system will not be able to resist. The hints of which Tony ji unknowingly points out - that regime changes in china of necessity had to be violent. Simply because of once again the lack of inherent ability to innovate - so that the regime ossifies to the point of having to be violently removed.

[Pulikeshi]

^ India was civilizationally optimized, China was nation-state optimized.
All bets are off in the current incarnation - my two humble paisa will not bet on calling it!

[Philip]

People's Daily reports frpm Beijing:

The gleat PRC condemns Western conspilacy in Nobel Peace Prize award to Chinese climinal and tlaitor "Loony" Liu ,running dog of capitalist US and puppet state Norway.Gleat People's Lepublick of China warn nitwit nonentity Norway to desist from being western condom countly.Gleat Chinese nation declare Norway enemy of the people for encoulaging "splittist" anti-China lickspittles of decadent Hollywood,debauchee Dalai Lama and clique of counter-revolutionaries before with same ig-Nobel plize,act of blasphemy,now worth plice of toilet roll,fit for flushing down WC.If nitwit Norway do not change award,gleat Chinese Dlagon will launch famous Dong-Feng fireclackers and send fire up Viking people's backsides!

Signed Chairman Hu (He?)

[Bade]

With great effort CPC dined and wined the Nobel selection committee for advise on how to harvest more Nobels in Science&tech areas, and they were promptly given the Nobel Peace Prize. Must really hurt Chinese pride.

[RajeshA]

Published on October 8, 2010
New Taiwan envoy to Vietnam assumes post: China Post (Taiwan)

VIETNAM -- Newly appointed Republic of China (R.O.C.) representative to Vietnam Huang Chih-peng was greeted by more than 30 office staffers and Taiwanese businesspeople on arrival at the airport in Hanoi to assume his post.

Huang, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, expressed his excitement by saying that it was his dream to live in Hanoi.

“I have read a lot of information about the country, and I am very much looking forward to working and learning from everyone, “ he said at the airport in front of his new colleagues.

Vietnam is one of the emerging markets that the government is focusing on to promote economic exchanges by providing assistance to Taiwanese companies there, Huang said.

Huang had served as director general of the Bureau of Foreign Trade since 2002 and helped negotiate the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) that Taiwan signed with China in June.

So there is some involvement of Taiwan in Vietnam! Such relations would be useful in creating an anti-Chinese security alliance.

[Pulikeshi]

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/1008/Why-Liu-Xiaobo-Nobel-Peace-Prize-could-harm-Chinese-rights-activists/%28page%29/2

Liu has been active in the Chinese pro-democracy movement for more than two decades. He took part in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, drawing attention to himself by negotiating the withdrawal of most of the students from the square before the Army moved in, thus averting more bloodshed.

He spent 18 months in jail for his role at Tiananmen, and was later banned from teaching. In 1995 he was sentenced to three years of “re-education through labor” for writing essays critical of the government.

This work, and the long jail sentence he is currently serving, made Liu “the foremost symbol of this wide ranging struggle for human rights in China,” the Nobel committee statement said.

Tony,

Seems like he is one of your heroes from Tiannmen, a true Chinese patriot.
A very clever teacher once taught me to listen to those that criticized me, one gets to learn more.

[Anujan]

Well

It is the destiny for the Chinese people to achieve greatness. The only fly in the ointment is the Chinese Communist Party. The sooner they throw off its yoke, the sooner they will realize their destiny.

[shiv]

Yup, where China is building corridors through the Arctic Ocean, through Russia, through PoK-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey corridor, through Malacca Straits, through Myanmar-Chittagong Corridor, etc., India is stuck and boxed in in South Asia, because in PoK not a blade of grass grows and Myanmar is China's backyard.

May I suggest one thing with regard to this thread?

Let us not have to re invent what we learned from experience in the Paki threads we have had. If you talk about Pakistan, talk about Pakistan. Do not compare with India.

I will briefly digress on to the subject of Pakistan to say what I mean. For example the number of people below poverty line in India is nearly twice the entire Pakistani population. India has three times the population of Pakistan defecating out in the open. I hope you can see where this is going?

By looking at any parameter of one country and making an instant comparison with India - we might a well stick to lamenting and whining about India. And I hope you, who started this thread, will not destroy it with this sort of nonsense.

Why is China trying to open up all these routes?

China is a huge importer and exporter. Almost all the trade (and therefore the Chinese economy) is by sea and almost all of that trade has to go via the chokepoints of the Suez canal, straits of Hormuz and the straits of Malacca. China has made enough enemies who sit and gloat over these chokepoints that are designed to choke China if the CCP gets out of hand. Most shipping in the world is carried by ships that carry Greek, Liberian or Panamanian flags. You don't actually have to block off any of these choke points. All you need to do is maek transport to China costly by impounding or sinking a few ships bound for China. the insurance will go up and shiping gets more expensive.

It is not India that is bound by geography, Geography is kind to India. The Indian ocean is our pond. geography is unkind to China. So please stop meaningless comparisons and moaning.

[Lalmohan]

shiv, the stratfor article from jun 15 2008 makes exactly that point
china is very very constrained geographically, and demographically - with an acute shortage of arable land
and therefore has to be export driven for growing prosperity. its the sea board that is vital to china's existence... everything else is aggressive forward defense

[sanjaykumar]

It will interesting and revealing what the reaction to the award of the nobel is in China.

I predict it will not elicit a positive response.

(It is tempting and easy to take potshots at the Chinese for the way they speak English-let us leave mockery as a political weapon to China, and not stoop to their level).

[shiv]

shiv, the stratfor article from jun 15 2008 makes exactly that point
china is very very constrained geographically, and demographically - with an acute shortage of arable land
and therefore has to be export driven for growing prosperity. its the sea board that is vital to china's existence... everything else is aggressive forward defense

We tend to get so soo stuck with our own lamentations that we do not want to actually look around. China is 1/3rd occupied Tibet - hostile high and cold. Let alone crops there is even a shortage of oxygen. And another third is desert. All exports cannot go to Japan and the US west coast. Much needs to go to Europe. And oil must flow from the gulf.

[Pulikeshi]

Shiv/Lalmohan,

Traditional, Morgenthau, Mearsheimer, thought process would concur that China is separated
from India if not Asia in some way by large 'land oceans' & Himalayas completely in-arable and desolate.
In this sense, historically, Indian and Chinese nation-states have existed without direct confrontation.
As I mentioned elsewhere, India has and continues to be tax-revenue driven.
China has and continues to be external trade driven. Not much has changed in history.
It took me a while to sort out the FDI, FII enigma.
I once had a heated exchange with a very senior professor on Chinese studies on
'cheap money' from China a few years ago at a political forum, of course at that time
all this chap had was derision for my deluded thinking. Much water under Howrah since then.

However, the current Chinese nation-state does not seem to be beholden to these guide books.
They seem to be applying some guide book that remains unknown. Perhaps it is the stratagems

One suspects that if India inherited Curzon's burden, then the Chinese believe that undoing
the 'New British Indian' Empire is to their advantage. This mean, there is alignment on
Pakistan with the west. There is a need to recreate the 'Silk Road' and there is a need to
be a dominant power in the Indian Ocean. A whole lot of Chinese actions in Asia makes sense
when seen from this point of view. You are right that China is 'handicapped' geographically.
However, if they are to succeed they could very well adopt the Mongolian model, albeit, it
will cost quite a bit and will be hard to sustain.
To me it seems like Qing/British India experience is what is driving a 'Mongol' solution.

The West is now debating if they can live with supporting a 'New British Indian' Empire or
they wait out the Chinese CPC 'time bomb' to take care of itself.

[thayilv]

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/nobel ... e-win?bn=1

“I want to thank the Nobel Committee for bestowing this award on Liu Xiaobo, who remains behind bars,” Liu Xia said. “I want to thank (former Czech President) Vaclav Havel. I want to thank Bishop Desmond Tutu. And I want to thank the Dalai Lama,” she said.

Some additional heartburn for the PRC with the wife of the Nobel laureate thanking HH Dalai Lama.

[shiv]

One suspects that if India inherited Curzon's burden, then the Chinese believe that undoing
the 'New British Indian' Empire is to their advantage. This mean, there is alignment on
Pakistan with the west. There is a need to recreate the 'Silk Road' and there is a need to
be a dominant power in the Indian Ocean. A whole lot of Chinese actions in Asia makes sense
when seen from this point of view.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are the key, but India is not an insignificant player.

The US wants to get out of Afghanistan (or so they say). But the US is also promising to stay engaged with Pakistan unlike the past (or so they say). That means the US IMO will sit in Pakistan for years. And the US will control all pipelines and the Silk route. Hence China's desperation to send ships via the Arctic and all.

What if the US went? Along with the US, support to the Pakistani army is likely to go. The Pakistan army will then sell itself wholly and completely to the CPC. Ultimately this will not be in our interest. On the other hand, US support to the Pakistan army too is not wholly in our interest. That is why I believe that despite the pain caused we have to economically incorporate the largely agrarian, largely Indic population of Pakistan with India - initially by an economic integration.

When I think about the pattern of terrorism in India I am convinced that the anti-india terrorists are almost wholly under Pakistani control. It is only the anti-Pakistan terrorists who are partly out of Pakistan army control. That makes them our allies, but both the US and China will oppose them since they threaten the whore - the Pakistan army. The anti India terrorists would be allies of the Chinese - but they are now gradually becoming foes of the US. The situation is actually very fluid - but that is a topic for the Pakistan failure thread.

[RajeshA]

Yup, where China is building corridors through the Arctic Ocean, through Russia, through PoK-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey corridor, through Malacca Straits, through Myanmar-Chittagong Corridor, etc., India is stuck and boxed in in South Asia, because in PoK not a blade of grass grows and Myanmar is China's backyard.

May I suggest one thing with regard to this thread?

Let us not have to re invent what we learned from experience in the Paki threads we have had. If you talk about Pakistan, talk about Pakistan. Do not compare with India.

shiv saar,
You may have noticed that my comparison of China to India was not made on "People's Republic of China Thread", which could be compared to TSP thread. It was made on "Managing Chinese Threat Thread", which could be compared to "Managing Pakistan's Failure Thread", even as there are differences. Threat presupposes there is something to be worried about for India. Hence my reference to one aspect of that concern.

I will briefly digress on to the subject of Pakistan to say what I mean. For example the number of people below poverty line in India is nearly twice the entire Pakistani population. India has three times the population of Pakistan defecating out in the open. I hope you can see where this is going?

By looking at any parameter of one country and making an instant comparison with India - we might a well stick to lamenting and whining about India. And I hope you, who started this thread, will not destroy it with this sort of nonsense.

I can understand what your concern is with this thread.

But the agenda of this thread is

• to show the predatory Chinese strategic thinking and behavior,
• it is to contribute to the awareness of Indians to that aspect of China,
• it is to highlight ways and means in which China is encroaching on Indian strategic space
• it is to explore strategies in which India could checkmate that encroachment, and to turn the tables
• it is to analyze how China is making itself immune to counter-pressures
• it is also to point out both India's achievements and failures in countering China's moves and the ensuing deficits

I don't see how one better manages a threat if one downplays it, unless one is employing some chanakian secrecy or something.

Why is China trying to open up all these routes?

China is a huge importer and exporter. Almost all the trade (and therefore the Chinese economy) is by sea and almost all of that trade has to go via the chokepoints of the Suez canal, straits of Hormuz and the straits of Malacca. China has made enough enemies who sit and gloat over these chokepoints that are designed to choke China if the CCP gets out of hand. Most shipping in the world is carried by ships that carry Greek, Liberian or Panamanian flags. You don't actually have to block off any of these choke points. All you need to do is maek transport to China costly by impounding or sinking a few ships bound for China. the insurance will go up and shiping gets more expensive.

It is not India that is bound by geography, Geography is kind to India. The Indian ocean is our pond. geography is unkind to China.

I see Chinese global trade as a strategic threat to India, which does not mean I'm advocating military means to counter it. But their economic expansion and their rate of expansion certainly means more money for their military.

One can of course look at Chinese trade with other countries as a perfectly legitimate activity and any effort by the Chinese to expand it also as legitimate endeavors. It may be all legitimate, but it doesn't mean it is in India's interests. When I speak of shipping routes and trade corridors, I'm not showing my concern for it from any military PoV. Of course, India can sink this and sink that, which is not necessarily how India acts. But that is fully immaterial to my argument.

My argument pertains to

1. whether there is any pressure on China to befriend India, because Chinese trade routes require Indian cooperation even in peace times, or whether China can circumvent those routes
2. whether China has played any part in boxing in India into South Asia, and taken away our trade routes, over which we can trade independent of Chinese cooperation.

In times of peace one enlarges the economy, in times of war one enlarges the territory. A bigger Chinese economy means a bigger war machine at the end of the day for China to enlarge territory or to squash their enemies. Should war break out, of course Indians would be hitting out at Chinese ships and shipping lanes. But during peace time, China would have produced a far bigger economy without having had the need to find a political entente with India. That is the crux of my argument: we don't seem to have enough cards in hand to force China to make 'real' peace with us and to change its system and thinking to allow a duopoly in Asia. This pressure on China, we should have built during peace time. And when one talks of creating such cards, one is saddled with arguments, no no, we are fine the way we are, stop whining!

Your message is: Chinese interests are legitimate. When war breaks, we will kick butt. That doesn't even touch my argument, much less counters it.

As far as geography is concerned, what is the constraint on Chinese geography? It is the country in Asia which has the most boundaries to other countries. It borders North Asia, East Asia, South East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and through PoK and Gwadar even West Asia.

If India has Indian Ocean, then China has Pacific Ocean, through which China can trade with the Americas - North, Central and South.

So I don't buy that China has a constrained geography as if it was Mongolia. Chinese geography is constrained only with respect to its ambitions and not in comparison to other countries.

So please stop meaningless comparisons and moaning.

One thing I know about this world is, "nothing is meaningless". Whatever I say, may not find your approval, but everybody has his own way to contribute and express. I have always found your contributions very enlightening. I am sorry you don't like my style here. I don't consider it to be least bit whining or moaning. But I can't make you dive into a topic, when you would rather skim over some words, and build an opinion based on some smiley. 'Meaningless' can just as much mean, one is not willing to look for meaning.

When one mentions Mumbai 26/11 Terror Attacks to Pakistanis, they also say one should stop whining and moaning. Where's the difference?!

I don't mean to get into a war of words with you, as I have too much respect for you as a BRFite to look forward to that. So I'll stop here.

[ramana]

Nightwatch 10/07/10

India-Russia: India will buy 250 to 300 advanced stealth fighter aircraft from Russian, according to Defence Minister A.K. Antony, as he announced the deal worth nearly $30 billion. Antony and Russian Defense Minister Serdyukov said Russia would supply the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) as well as 45 transport aircraft. India also will jointly manufacture the fighters under license for ten years.

Comment: The future of the Indian Air Force appears to be linked primarily to Russian rather than US firms. This agreement thinly hides an Indian strategic judgment about the threats it faces from China and Pakistan, about the US as a supplier for coping with those threats compared to the Russians.

India is making long term preparations to be ready for a major war after ten years that will require fifth generation fighters because the most likely enemy - presumably China - also will have those air capabilities. The Russians are willing to sell India the aircraft and to license the technology. The US is not building significant numbers of fifth generation fighters and will not sell them even to Israel.

The Indians, Russians and Chinese do not share the US strategic outlook favoring small wars and counterinsurgency forces.

A transformation is happening as we see.

I see some interesting possibilities.

[Lalmohan]

Rajesh
much of the land that china has is useless - to feed or providee employment to its people (the Han), therefore it only serves as a buffer for the core Han state. preserving peace and harmony (under Han guidance) in the buffer zones is what they desire. when it has added benefits like oil and gas, then they want to ensure that the routes are open and favour them. on the sea... they are not open. if you look out from the mainland, their main shipping lanes are effectively flanked by the philippines, vietnam and japan. possession of those regions certainly is a threat to unrestricted chinese shipping. this shipping is vital for the flow of energy in and goods out. on this flow lies the prosperity of the Han core. there is an arguement that the domestic economy lacks the land to create agrarian wealth, and the population is too great to create industrial employment for all. 400m live in the 'prosperous sea zones' and 900m live in the arid, uncultivable interiors, including parts of the Han. from a chinese perspective, what we see is predatory might be seen as preventative (that doesn't make it right though) - i guess what i am coming around to is that they are mighty scared and acting like the tough guy wannabe who whistles and shouts to hide his fear
we must stand up to this overt bullying

[Shankas]

"As of now, China's economy is pretty much dependent on the west and in many ways controlled by western companies using China as a production base. Indian economy is based on domestic growth and hence not as dependent upon the west."

This is really interesting. When we read of all these Chinese products that are competing with Indian made goods, how many of them are really "Chinese" in the sense of ownership, management and control of process/technology? And, without letting one's thought run wild, to what extent, if any, is this foreign presence in China designed to counter the more independent, autonomous and autarkic( relatively speaking) countries like India? Atlanticists, far as one can see, have never been thrilled or supportive of the Indian mixed economy with a high degree of autarky for its private and public sector. And its stated goal of being independent and self sufficient.

I read an editorial in Financial Times - London, maybe 3 years ago, which traced a T-shirt from a retail store in US to its creation in China. The T-shirt cost $35 at the store, but when it left China's shores it cost only $5 and the shipping cost went to a Norwegian company. Tracing it further back, it was calculated that labor + material was $1.50 and the manufacturer was a JV of the American company, which repatriated its profit.

Unfortunately, I am not able to find the article online. Can someone help find it.