Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

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Neshant
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Neshant »

Singha wrote:the markets and global finance in general is so rigged, its probably meaningless to talk of fundamental strategies or long term plans. timing seems to be everything, if not by design, then by luck.
Agree 100%.

Most people don't want to play a rigged game.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Singha »

giant new diamond trading center opens in mumbai - from the pic it looks a block long and wide.

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010 ... s-at-last/

Mumbai’s New Diamond Market Opens at Last
Search India Real Time

By Arlene Chang

The much awaited opening of Mumbai’s new diamond trading hub, the Bharat Diamond Bourse, finally happened Sunday.

Diamond traders are hoping the blessing of the Goddess Durga that comes from opening on Dusshera will help the market operate without the kind of glitches that put off the completion of the exchange for close to two decades.

“Dusshera is an auspicious time and we all agreed it would be a good day to inaugurate the bourse,” said Anoop Mehta, president of the Bharat Diamond Bourse.

Building the $250 million trading hub took 18 years and twice the amount of money expected after repeated delays due to everything from structural modifications to battles between leading diamond merchants to flooding from torrential rains.

The new exchange will shift the center of diamond trading from the old Opera House neighborhood of south Bombay to the booming suburb of Bandra. Mr. Mehta said the exchange – which has 2,500 offices, four walk-in vaults, 24,500 safe deposit boxes and a 6,200 square foot trading floor set on a 20-acre plot - is the world’s largest.

He said close to $18 billion worth of diamonds were exported from India during the last fiscal year and he is hoping that the new trading hub will bring more international diamond traders to India’s financial capital.

“We haven’t had foreigners coming here for trading and manufacturing of their diamonds because we just didn’t have infrastructure that was at par with Israel or Antwerp,” Mr. Mehta said. “Now that we have the facilities, I am certain that more diamond traders will be encouraged to set up offices in India.”

Last week at a mining conference, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry, Jyotiraditya Scindia said gem and jewelry exports make up 16% of the country’s total merchandise shipments. At the same conference, Mr. Scindia said that the sector had exports worth $29 billion in the last fiscal year.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Prasad »

Does this mean, we now route diamonds on par with or better than Antwerp?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Singha »

the intro pic is Shakinah
http://www.bdbindia.org/
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by abhischekcc »

Most of the diamond mines in the world are in the hands of Jews/westerners, so most sight holders would have to go to Antwerp anyway. IMO, this bourse would be great for a 'secondary' market in stones - cut stones specifically. I am not sure of the exact role.

India polishes 80% of the world's precious stones by carats, which is 60% by value. Most of the high value (1 carat +) stones are polishes either in Antwerp or Israel.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by abhischekcc »

BTW, the tag line 'diamond center of the world' is right. When this center is fully functional it will easily become the largest diamond trading center in the world. This honour would come back to India after two centuries - earlier, Jaipur was the largest precious stones trading center in the world.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by neel »

Singha wrote:hindu business line.

India's wealth triples to $3.5 trillion: Report

Our Bureau

Mumbai, Oct. 8

India's wealth has tripled to $3.5 trillion in the last decade, says the Global Wealth Report launched by Credit Suisse Research Institute.

The report also said that by 2015, India's wealth could double to around $6.4 trillion. Contrary to popular belief, the report noted that India's wealth distribution was skewed towards the lower end of the wealth pyramid.

The proportion of adults holding $100,000 in India was very small – 0.4 per cent.

However, this group has been rapidly growing in recent years and would continue to do the same, considering the growth trajectory of the country, the report said.

From a global point of view, the number of billionaires stood at over 1,000. Out of these, North America accounted for the highest number of billionaires at 500, followed by Asia Pacific with 245 billionaires and Europe with 230.

The global wealth as of today, held by 4.4 billion adults comes to around $195 trillion, said the report.

It would grow by 61 per cent to reach $315 by 2015, the report added.
This is just the portion of wealth that is captured by the CSO, which I usually assume to be ~2/3 of the total. We know this because they say that wealth has tripled in 10 years, meaning wealth in 2000 was $3.5 trillion/3 = Rs. 51.6 lakh crore, almost exactly the Rs. 52.8 lakh crore given in the most recently available edition of the official national account statistical report for 2000.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Rahul M »

even the antwerp diamond business is said to have significant amounts of control in the hands of jain businessmen.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

abhischekcc wrote:This honour would come back to India after two centuries - earlier, Jaipur was the largest precious stones trading center in the world.
Umm! What happened to Golconda? It was the 'only' source for diamonds back then.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

neel wrote:This is just the portion of wealth that is captured by the CSO, which I usually assume to be ~2/3 of the total. We know this because they say that wealth has tripled in 10 years, meaning wealth in 2000 was $3.5 trillion/3 = Rs. 51.6 lakh crore, almost exactly the Rs. 52.8 lakh crore given in the most recently available edition of the official national account statistical report for 2000.
Welcome back and thanx for the info neel.

It still appears to be anomalously low. The wealth per adult in India ~$5,000. Admittedly this is personal wealth not national wealth still...
How can you have a Per capita adult income ~$3,000 per adult and still have wealth be so low?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by abhischekcc »

Theo_Fidel wrote:
abhischekcc wrote:This honour would come back to India after two centuries - earlier, Jaipur was the largest precious stones trading center in the world.
Umm! What happened to Golconda? It was the 'only' source for diamonds back then.
Golconda was a mine, while Jaipur was a trading center.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by nandakumar »

Rahul M wrote:even the antwerp diamond business is said to have significant amounts of control in the hands of jain businessmen.

Even as far back as 2000 when i had gone to Antwerp, I was told that the Palanpur Jains controlled more than 51 per cent of the trade in diamonds that passed through Antwerp. There is even a museum of Jain religiopus artefacts and paintings and stuff in Antwerp that is funded by them.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Suraj »

Jairam Ramesh's environment ministry throws a spanner in the works:
POSCO's $12 billion Indian steel plant in doubt after panel report
Posco’s proposed $12 billion steel plant in India is in doubt after a government panel recommended scrapping environment clearances given to the world’s third- largest steelmaker.

Three of the four members of the panel suggested that approvals should be canceled because of “flaws in the studies, and shortcomings in the clearances granted” to the project in the eastern state of Orissa, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told reporters yesterday in New Delhi. A separate report by Meena Gupta, the head of the panel, asked for conditions to be added to the existing clearances, he said.

Posco’s project, billed as the single-biggest investment by a foreign company in India, has been delayed since 2005 because of opposition from farmers unwilling to give up their land. In August, the ministry rejected a proposal by Vedanta Resources Plc, owned by billionaire Anil Agarwal, to mine bauxite at Niyamgiri hills in the same state, hampering a planned $8 billion expansion.

“The whole Posco issue has been blown out of proportion by the government and this is definitely going to affect foreign investments into India,” said Nikhil Agarwal, an analyst at Kim Eng Securities India Ltd. in Mumbai. “There have hardly been any large scale foreign investments in new steel projects and the situation is unlikely to change in the coming years.”

Posco shares fell as much as 0.5 percent to 490,000 won and traded at 490,500 won as of 12:39 p.m. in Seoul. The stock has declined 20 percent this year, compared with a 12 percent gain in the benchmark Kospi index.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Singha »

he obviously has the blessings of 10 janpath to be taking such a activist posture on big projects like posco and navi mumbai airport. yuvraj hopes to get lots of votes in tribal areas...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Prem »

http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2010 ... -7674.html
India Close to Becoming a US$2 Trillion Powerhouse
Oct. 19 – The Indian economy is expected to grow to US$1.72 trillion in the 2011-2012 fiscal year, moving closer towards the US$2 trillion mark, according to an assessment by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC).The country’s gross domestic product at current market prices was measured at US$1.31 trillion in 2009-2010 and is estimated to be US$1.52 trillion ( close to 1.6T breastimate by Sir Suraj here)est in the current fiscal, the PMEAC said in its latest economic outlook. Assuming GDP growth continues at 9 percent, the Indian economy would reach a level of US$1.72 trillion in 2011-2012 ( increase of 200Billion ) and would become a US$2 trillion economy in the 2013-2014 fiscal, according to the report.
( We should hit the 2T in 2012-2013 and add extra 250B)
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by VenkataS »

Singha wrote:he obviously has the blessings of 10 janpath to be taking such a activist posture on big projects like posco and navi mumbai airport. yuvraj hopes to get lots of votes in tribal areas...

Or is it the right hands were not greased or not greased to the extent desired for the environmental clearance to be approved. It would be a shame to lose such a major investment because of corruption, not that it hasn't happened before.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Prem wrote:( We should hit the 2T in 2012-2013 and add extra 250B)
Thanx for that info Prem

Holy Cow, Didn't we just hit $1 Trillion in 2007-2008.
Mellenia to the first Trillion. 5 years to the second one.
Hold on for the ride folks. :mrgreen:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by nachiket »

Does inflation have the effect of inflating these figures as well?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by rohiths »

nachiket wrote:Does inflation have the effect of inflating these figures as well?
Inflation has an effect since we are considering nominal GDP.
Nominal GDP growth rates have averaged around 14% for the last 7 years. India's nominal GDP will double every 5 years. By 2020 it will reach $5 Trillion.
If the US Fed keeps pumping money and rupee appreciates significantly the number may increase even further.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Prem »

The real fun starts in ~2022~ Till then Yindoo remain meek geek oblivious to all the knifes drawn and aimed at him. :lol:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Manu »

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Prem wrote:( We should hit the 2T in 2012-2013 and add extra 250B)
Thanx for that info Prem

Holy Cow, Didn't we just hit $1 Trillion in 2007-2008.
Mellenia to the first Trillion. 5 years to the second one.
Hold on for the ride folks. :mrgreen:
A historical prespective, if I may:

(1) in the 1500s, Mughal India was the second largest economy in the world. The gross domestic product of India in the 16th century was estimated at about 24.5% of the world economy, in comparison to Ming China's 25% share.
(2) In 1700, Annual revenue reported by the Emperor Aurangzeb's exchequer exceeded £100 million in 1700 (twice that of Europe then). Thus, India emerged as the world's largest economy, followed by Manchu China and Western Europe.
(3) India's share of the world income went from 24.4% in 1700, comparable to Europe's share of 23.3%, to a low of 3.8% in 1952.

India had the world's largest economy from the first to 11th century, and in the 18th century, with a (32.9%) share of world GDP in the 1st century to (28.9%) in 1000 AD, and in 1700 AD with (24.4%).
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Singha »

but technologically under mughal rule we had fallen behind. due to large population and trading activities the gdp was large but science was weak and warfare too. we paid the price for it.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Singha wrote:but technologically under mughal rule we had fallen behind. due to large population and trading activities the gdp was large but science was weak and warfare too. we paid the price for it.
Absolutely right. We were stuck with a 1% GDP growth rate (yes that is right) for 200 years under those most wonderful English overlords that everyone likes to 'admire' for keeping the roads clean. So it was that we fell further and further behind as others grew at 4-5%. We now build and grow more in 2 years than the British did in 200 years! :eek: :eek: Some perspective that.

Despite my personal frustrations I just laugh at the foreign media consternation over the chaos of India. Grow baby Grow. We can clean up later.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by abhischekcc »

TF, the growth rate under the British was 1.2%, the same as the population growth rate. This means that for two centuries, the income growth India stagnated. This is such a shocking fact that it needs some time to absorb - yes, for two centuries, the British prevented the development of 1/6 of humanity in the name of civilization.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Manishw »

^ The anglo saxons are real fu*****ts.Even now I don't expect them to give in without a fight.Caution is the buzzword for me.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by rsingh »

Look like British downsizing has started.Royal( :wink: )navy will be reduced to coast guard duty. This all when Evil yenduus are doubling every 5 years. Half million jobs to go from public sector. Truely a nation of shopkeepers. Removing halfmillion people from active economy is mortal for a tight economy that lives on credit. Wonder how all knowing "Economist" is going to twist this story :rotfl:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Rahul M »

erm, the RN remains quite capable. it is actually in the low end i.e coast guard end that they have a big gap. and no MPA's of course ! :eek:

incidentally they are decommisioning the sentinels, I wonder if we would pick those up.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by rsingh »

incidentally they are decommisioning the sentinels, I wonder if we would pick those up
If we wait a bit and play the right game we may get these ships as scrap for Kandla :mrgreen:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Rahul M »

my last OT comment here.

sentinels are not ships ! :mrgreen:

/runs away before suraj comes at me with a lathi.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by SureshP »

Is the free market improving lives of India's Dalits?

Soutik Biswas | 13:46 UK time, Wednesday, 20 October 2010


Does free market drive social change? By rewarding talent and hard work, does it help bring down social barriers? More pertinently, has the unshackling of the Indian economy helped the country's untouchables, or Dalits, to forge ahead?


A group of economists and Dalit scholars led by Devesh Kapur at Pennsylvania University's Centre for the Advanced Study of India, believes so. India's 160 million Dalits are some of its most wretched citizens, because of an unforgiving and harsh caste hierarchy that condemns them to the bottom of the heap.

The study quizzed all Dalit households - more than 19,000 - in two clusters of villages in Azamgarh and Bulandshahar, two poor, backward districts in Uttar Pradesh state. Dalits were asked about their material and social conditions now and in 1990 when economic reforms were kicking off in India. The answers, says the study, provide proof of "substantial changes in a wide variety of social practices affecting Dalit well-being."

If you feel that 19,000 Dalit households in Uttar Pradesh are not a good enough sample for studying their conditions, think again. To put things into perspective, 32 million of India's estimated 160 million Dalits live in Uttar Pradesh alone.

But the very fact changes have happened to the lives of the Dalits in Uttar Pradesh is enough to excite sceptics. Let's look at some of the more striking findings:

1. Ownership of bicycles, fans, TV sets and mobile phones have increased by typically a third to half of the Dalit households surveyed.

2. A substantial improvement in housing: 64.4% and 94.6% of Dalits in the households surveyed in two districts now live in "pukka" (concrete) houses compared to 18% and 38.4% respectively in 1990.

3. Some interesting changes in grooming and dress - again, an assertion of social aspirations. Take, for example, toothpaste. Under 3% of Dalits used toothpaste in the surveyed households in 1990. In 2007, more than half of them in Azamgarh and over 80% in Bulandshahar used toothpaste. Up to 80% of Dalits in one cluster of villages use shampoo today, an 82% jump compared with 1990.

4. Key changes in eating habits. Consumption of pulses has gone up. More than 80% of the children in households surveyed in both districts are not being served the previous night's leftovers. More than 70% of the households use packaged salt. Up to 87% of the households in Azamgarh and more than half the households in Bulandshahar buy tomatoes.

Whether calorie intake has gone up substantially remains unclear. But respondents say that their food situation is "much better."

5. "Massive" changes in social practices within the community. Today almost all the households rent a car or jeep to take the groom's marriage party to the bride's village and bring the bride back to the groom's village, up from as low as 2.5% in Bulandshahar in 1990. More than 90% of them offer tea to visiting relatives.

6. The relationship between the Dalits and other castes is undergoing subtle, but important changes. These days more than 80% of Dalits are not seated separately at non-Dalit weddings of grooms in the village, compared with a little over 20% in 1990. In Azamgarh households nearly 90% of Dalit babies are now attended equally by government and non-Dalit midwives.

The traditional practice that only Dalits would lift dead animals of non-Dalits is dying out. In Azamgarh fewer than 1% of Dalits lift dead animals, compared with 19% in 1990, while in Bulandshahar only 5.3% do. More than 60% of Dalit children in the surveyed households go to school, as do well over half of the girl children.

7. Migration is driving a lot of changes in economic wellbeing. By 2007 fourth-fifths of Dalit households in the two village clusters had at least one family member who was a migrant worker, a professional or was in business. Half of the households in one village cluster, and 78% of households in the other had members who worked locally or had a small business. "Migration," says the study, "has been a powerful engine of Dalit empowerment."

Whether the market is reducing inequality remains a highly contentious point. My hunch is that political empowerment must have played a powerful role in many of the changes: the rise of Dalit politics coincided with the liberalisation of the economy. But the last word comes from the group of scholars behind the study: "No one would argue Dalits have achieved anything like equality, but it is certainly the case that many practices that reflected subordination and routine humiliation of Dalits have declined considerably." That, by itself, is a considerable triumph for India's wretched of the earth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... ias_d.html
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

abhischekcc wrote:..the same as the population growth rate.
abhi,

This is the real statement that staggers me. It was a form of demographic warfare. If you are interested you should track the population increases in Europe vs the rest of the world. You would find it interesting just how minuscule the European population was.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Singha »

the sentinels have not been in service too much - unlikely to function properly at high MTBF. let them try and palm it off as a "NATO central reserve".

their army is heading towards being a netherland or belgium - a couple of airmobile brigades, an ambhibious brigade, maybe around 200 tanks (1 division) and lots of swagger and propaganda. in AFM people are going ga-ga that 6 squadrons of high end strike fighters shows how powerful RAF will retain the edge :lol:

they are all set for a resounding victory over chile or laos ... if they have the ships to get there :rotfl: astute class SSNs torpedoing laotian fishing canoes and flying the bartania flag high...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by jagga »

Link from SureshP,Wow can't beleive Brown Sahib(Soutik Biswas) has written this article. Normally his only aim is to show india in poor light.
If in a, not so good, state like Uttar Pradesh life of Dalits have improved so much, then we can safely say life of average Dalit family must be improving in all of india. This is such a wonderful news and slap on the face of Jhollawala's.This survey clearly proves, Economic liberalisation and reforms have helped the poor sections/Families of India.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by rsingh »

Rahul M wrote:my last OT comment here.

sentinels are not ships ! :mrgreen:

/runs away before suraj comes at me with a lathi.
baah all the same. BR is like Boxing...........you slip a bit and you get black eye. :(( Me think Suraj is on holidays :)
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Suraj »

Ok, folks, now that everyone's had their share of giggles at my expense, let's get this thread back on track :)
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by neel »

Theo_Fidel wrote:
neel wrote:This is just the portion of wealth that is captured by the CSO, which I usually assume to be ~2/3 of the total. We know this because they say that wealth has tripled in 10 years, meaning wealth in 2000 was $3.5 trillion/3 = Rs. 51.6 lakh crore, almost exactly the Rs. 52.8 lakh crore given in the most recently available edition of the official national account statistical report for 2000.
Welcome back and thanx for the info neel.

It still appears to be anomalously low. The wealth per adult in India ~$5,000. Admittedly this is personal wealth not national wealth still...
How can you have a Per capita adult income ~$3,000 per adult and still have wealth be so low?
With a net fixed capital stock of $3.5 trillion and a GDP of $1.5 trillion, the aggregate capital:output ratio is 2.3. That is compared to 3.2 in the US. This means that for every $1000 of output in the US, there was $3200 of land, buildings, infrastructure, vehicles, equipment, and computers involved in the production, whereas, for every Rs. 1000 of output in India, there was Rs. 2300 of the same. Since, on average, most types of land, buildings, and infrastructure is manifold cheaper in India than in the US, it is not surprising that the total amount needed to produce the same amount of output is 30% less.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Prem »

(Not Necessarily a good news/trend)

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20101021/biz.htm#1
Foreign pharma buys 6 Indian cos in 4 yrs
Indian firms relying disproportionately on exports despite unmet domestic demand
Foreign pharmaceutical companies are increasingly consolidating presence in the Indian market. This is even as local availability of critical medicines is still not guaranteed. Nearly 65 per cent Indians are without access to critical medicines, despite India being the fourth largest producer of drugs gloablly. This data is ironic given handsome export growth and profits, the Indian pharma industry has been posting for about two decades.
Data gathered by the Tribune show that the industry’s gross sales increased from Rs 14, 200 crore in 1994-95 to Rs 75,500 crore in 2008-2009. However, exports jumped more than proportionately — from Rs 2,512 crore (1994-95) to Rs 39, 538 crore (2008-09). Last year, export growth rate of the sector was 29 per cent — higher than the industry growth rate of 8 per cent. No surprise then that domestic drug consumption fell from Rs 45, 953 crore to Rs 44, 579 crore, despite a large unmet domestic medicine demand.
Another evidence collected from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy shows that while consumers are suffering, pharma firms are making profits. While the rate of sales growth of pharma firms declined to 14.2 per cent annually in 2001-2009 from 19.5 per cent in 1988-2000, their profit ratios after tax to total income actually doubled- from 4.9 per cent to 9.7 per cent over the said period.
There has also been another grave trend - heightened foreign interest in India where drug manufacturing costs are very low. Beginning tomorrow, a delegation of PhRMA (representatives of US-based drug firms) is also visiting India to likely argue against the regulation of Indian drug sector. So much so that concerned activists in the sector, led by Dr Amit Sengupta of All India People’s Science Network, today wrote to the PM warning him against foreign interests in India’s drug market.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by SureshP »

Coal India IPO, fetches mind-boggling 2.36L crore
Partha Sinha, TNN, Oct 22, 2010, 12.37am IST


MUMBAI: The Indian capital market turned black into gold this week. The initial public offer of Coal India was set to be the largest in Indian history from the moment it opened on Monday, but even the biggest bulls in the ring were left stunned by the money it mined by the time it closed on Thursday: a mobilization of Rs 2.36 lakh crore, over 15 times the target of Rs 15,500 crore.

It's a mind-boggling testimony to the amount of money floating around in Indian markets, the hunger for good stocks, and the sheer euphoria about the India story ^ also reflected in the fact that the sensex too closed up 388 points at 20,261 on Thursday. The success of Coal India also sets an impressive benchmark for biggies like SAIL, Hindustan Copper, Manganese Ore and Power Grid which are lined up to tap the capital markets in coming months.

It can be a little hard to get one's head around all the zeroes in a figure like Rs 2.36 lakh crore (or $53 billion). So here's some perspective. The amount of money that flowed into the offering by the `black diamond' in just four days is more than last year's GDP of about 140 countries. Nearer home, it is more than the GDP of Sri Lanka ($42 billion) and four times that of Nepal ($12.5 billion), according to data on the World Bank's website. It is also almost 10 times India's health budget of Rs 25,154 crore for 2010-11, nearly five times our education budget of Rs 49,904 crore and almost one-fourth the size of the Union budget itself.

Here's another fascinating comparison: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pumped in a record Rs 1.08 lakh crore into Indian stocks so far this year. For the Coal India IPO alone, they have put in bids worth Rs 1.20 lakh crore. ``This is one of the best PSUs (CIL is the world's largest coal producer and accounts for 80% of India's coal production) and was offered at a very good valuation,'' explained Dharmesh Mehta, MD, institutional equities, Enam Securities. ``The huge oversubscription also reflects the easy liquidity situation abroad,'' he added. With interest rates at extremely low levels in most developed countries, FIIs can easily borrow there and pump in money into attractive stocks in emerging markets, which is exactly what happened in this case.

The offer also witnessed a rise in the average retail application size to Rs 70,000-75,000 from Rs 40,000-45,000 in other recent offerings. "The strong retail participation in the IPO might actually make the case stronger for Sebi to increase the maximum retail application size to the proposed Rs 2 lakh,'' said Sanjay Sharma, MD & head, equity capital markets, Deutsche Bank, one of the merchant bankers to the offering.

A panel of ministers headed by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee is expected to meet on Sunday to decide the issue price of the offering in the coal behemoth. While the issue price was in the band of Rs 225-245, the strong demand should allow the government to price it towards the highest point, a banker close to the issue was quoted as saying by news agencies. The market consensus is that the scrip will list at around Rs 300. If it does so, Coal India's market cap will be about Rs 1.89 lakh crore, which would make it India's fifth largest company by market cap, behind only RIL (Rs 3.53 lakh crore), ONGC (Rs 2.90 lakh cr), SBI (Rs 2.03 lakh cr) and TCS (Rs 1.93 lakh cr) based on closing prices on Thursday.

Demand was strongest from qualified institutional buyers, which includes FIIs, mutual funds and insurance firms, who bid for 24.7 times the shares on offer to them. Initial indications are that retail investors bid 2.4 times the shares allocated to them, with a record of 18 lakh applications, and this figure was expected to rise. Ironically, Coal India employees themselves stayed away from the IPO, with their bids amounting to barely 9% of the shares reserved for them.

Understandably, the government, which is looking to divest 10% of its 100% stake in the company, was ecstatic at the positive response. Pranab Mukherjee said the huge demand for the IPO showed the level of investor confidence in premier Indian companies, both in the public and private sector.

"Don't underestimate a government company. These are like hidden treasures," a delighted Coal India chairman Partho Bhattacharya told TOI. ``The size of the IPO is only befitting. Look at it this way: Coal India is the (world's) largest reserve holder and the largest producer. Nobody understood the company. But today everyone is taking it seriously.''

Comparisons are being drawn between this IPO and the Reliance Power IPO that closed in January 2008 and was subscribed 73 times. However, the rules of bidding were markedly different then. During the Reliance Power IPO, institutions were allowed to bid with just 10% margin money. So, if an FII had $50 million to put into the offer, it could actually put in a bid for shares worth $500 million. But a few months ago, Sebi scrapped this practice. So, an FII can bid $50 million for Coal India only if it wants shares worth that much.

Market players also believe with a series of PSUs now lined-up for divestment, the success of this offer would now make the government more confident about these offers. This would also give investors much higher confidence to invest in PSU stocks in general, and the forthcoming divestments in particular, dealers said.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 789659.cms


I find this a bit annoying as it seems the pricing for this IPO was wrong. Its clear the govt is selling at AT LEAST a 25% discount and possibly as high as 50%. Rough and ready calculation gives a minimal loss of 4000 crore. The Govt needs better set of IPO advisors.
Singha
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by Singha »

coal india is probably one of the most corrupt PSUs (lots of ex officials own great properties in metros!) and subject to political interference/having its company resources used like political property (ala indian railways). most of its mines would be in the 'disturbed areas'.

but I see the media and their investment managers created a great hype over it ...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

Post by manish »

Singha wrote:coal india is probably one of the most corrupt PSUs (lots of ex officials own great properties in metros!) and subject to political interference/having its company resources used like political property (ala indian railways). most of its mines would be in the 'disturbed areas'.

but I see the media and their investment managers created a great hype over it ...
Very true - a good friend of mine who was ex-NTPC once told me that massive jhol was going on with the PSU miners - there would be shortfalls in both quality and quantity of coal supplied PSU power cos but there was nothing one could do to set it right.

Apparently one just had to shrug it off and sign documents stating that everything was in order - else one would risk coming in close 'contact' with the unsavoury elements from the same 'disturbed areas' that GD refers to above.
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