Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RajeshA]

Continuing from Managing Pakistan's failure Thread

brihaspati garu,

I am no expert on Islam, so I would defer a judgment of its internal and external dynamics to those who know it better. I am however certainly no big fan of it as an ideological system for mankind.

1. What I would suggest to the Subcontinental Muslims is to throw the historical context of Islam, and its rooting in the Middle East into the Indian Ocean, and just look at the Quran and the teachings of Mohammed.
2. Then to go a step further and change the color of all that what is not compatible with modernity and Dharma in Quran to a light grey shade which is ignorable.
3. The next step they should take is to write down a manifesto called Basic Principles for Social Harmony, applicable to all Subcontinental Muslims, which allow them a conflict-free co-existence with the Indics.
4. Fourthly, they should proceed to build a Subcontinental Nationalism in sync with other Indics, but which underlines their independence from West Asian Muslims, and immunity from the cross-currents within Islam in that region

Whether all this is possible or not, is written on a different page.

[Prem]

Rajesh ji,
Hundreds of years of mental slavery wont go away soon. West Asian Muslims are seen as being Deen originator hence every aspect of life has to pay homage to these alien barbarians. To my simple mind , there are very choices. The image of these ouside barbarains must be shattererd using all possible means and Indics must rebuild the economy as well defences and then openly engage /force philiosophical dicsussion and let Truth come out and win. Dont mean to Insult any dogma but non compatiability of Islam as we know of and the 21st century humanistic, scientific values must be made obvious and choice made clear to them. Either they amend , join, part of the family or be relegated to the dustbin of history in near future. India has been the land of spiritulaity since the dawn of human civilization with periodic apperance of Rishis, Munis, Gurus and Avatars and it stretched the boundaries of naivity that Indians have to import "relgiion" from ME for enlightement. There is only one land on this Planet which have all the essential , natural ingredients of being materially and spirtually sovreign and any undermining of this must earn our enemity and promotion of this ... our heartful affection. This is the minimum we ought to expect from our own and minimum measurement of being Motherlandic.

[RajeshA]

Continuing from Managing Pakistan's failure Thread

Using any of Pashtun/Afghan/Pakiban/AfTaleb has to be done with a very clear understanding - that it is only going to be a temporary alliance of purpose. While you collaborate, you have to prepare to start the liquidation struggle almost immediately the first purpose is over.

What if India can think beyond just the immediate purpose, of many more purposes for which a strategic alliance between India and Pushtunistan/Afghanistan can be of value?

Just the break up of Pakistan does not end the history or a future of geopolitical struggle for India in the Central Asian region - there is the question of transit between East Asia and West Asia of both people, but more importantly of goods and armies, there is the question of pipelines, there is the question of freedom for our adversaries to exploit mineral wealth in the region, there is the question of Xinjiang, there is the question of safe haven and training camps for Islamic adversaries of other powers in Asia and beyond.

Would India want to give up our 'assets', our friends in Pushtunistan, once the first project of disassembly of Pakistan has succeeded?

The Indian subcontinent is home to over half a billion Muslims. India is the strongest country in the subcontinent. If the Indian Muslims had the vision, some self-respect and some spine, they could provide the leadership of other Muslims as well, all in their own respective countries, and by sheer numbers alone the leadership of whole Muslim world. For that they would have had to decrease the friction with people of other faiths in India and to enter a strategic alignment with the Indian State itself, allowing both Indian State and themselves a predominant position in Central, West, South and South-East Asia. But Alas! So theoretically and hypothetically speaking, India could hold sway over Afghanistan, as well as the rest of the Muslim world, influencing their policies towards the other big powers of the world.

I am just using a different lens at the moment to see the world, as perhaps you! But I do understand the logic of your argument.

RajeshA ji,

Thanks for articulating what I have been hinting at for a long while. All my calculations, analysis and gut feeling for the future points to this direction - that Muslims of the world and Indian Muslims as well as sub-continental Muslims in particular must move in this direction in the long term. If it happens it will be good for both India and Muslims of the world. Partition did a lot of damage, some demographic shift took place, but it still could not change the larger demographic realities of South Asia and of the historic Indic civilization in its home domain. By writing off 30-35% and making them adversaries or at best neutral observers cannot be a rational policy for the very long term for any civilization (of course it can be argued that the unwanted part have betrayed and left the mother civilization, which has some validity).

China and the West can both be surpassed if an alignment (unthinkable as it may seem today) like this takes place, I believe. But a starting point for that kind of thinking might be a few decades away when some or most of the irrational historical baggage and recent partition bad blood hopefully will wash away. Unfortunately, both you and I and others who think like this are probably way too much ahead of our times - and we are at risk of being identified as traitors from both of our respective camps, rather than being visionary.

AKalam ji,

I am no visionary in this matter. I am just calling for something which I believe most Indics have been calling for from time immemorial - that instead of causing conflict with the people rooted in the beliefs native to the Subcontinent, possibly because of their ideology of siege, the Subcontinental Muslims should consolidate themselves and fight off the Arabic corrosion. What I am saying is that Subcontinental Muslims should finally start to bat for the Subcontinent, regardless of whether the other team is from West, PRC, Arabia, Turkey or Iran.

How can the interests of Subcontinental Muslims lie in the agenda of outside powers? Their interests are wedded to the Subcontinent and to the Engine of the Subcontinent.

Indics are saying we have to bring our house in order, do national consolidation, indicize all the Indian Muslims before proceeding to confront the world powers like the West or PRC. Subcontinental Muslims probably opine they first need to islamize the whole Indian Subcontinent before they can really start batting for the interests of the region.

I am trying to tell the Indics, with whom my loyalty lies, that the project of indicization of Subcontinental Muslims is just the kind of quagmire where we would exhaust all our strength, without seeing much progress, making us vulnerable to destruction by our rivals - West, PRC and at the moment weakened Islamic powers in West Asia. I am trying to tell them that instead of seeing Subcontinental Muslims as shackles on our feet, we should seek cooperation from them to subdue our foes.

I am trying to tell the Subcontinental Muslims, that their siege and victimhood mentality viz-a-viz the Indics has made them mere tools of extra-Subcontinental interests and powers and put them on a course of social, cultural, economic and political self-destruction. The Anti-Indic Hate with which the Subcontinental Muslim's mind is brainwashed is a Matrix (lots of green in there too) and there is a need for some Morpheus and Neo to stand up from amongst the Subcontinental Muslims and lead them to an Awakening. This Anti-Indic Hate is powering the Machine World - PRC, the West and West Asian Powers, to weaken Zion (Indic India). The Anti-Indic Hate has made the Subcontinental Muslims otherwise unproductive, leading a vegetative existence, contributing nothing to the strength of the Subcontinent. The productive capacity that exists in Pakistan, Bangladesh or amongst the Indian Muslims is not being used to strengthen the Subcontinental Core, but to weaken it (mostly).

The Indics and Subcontinental Muslims should start to bat for the same side, but to be honest, Indics cannot really force the Muslims to take the red pill. That the Muslims would have to take of their own volition and from a liberator from their own ranks.

[RamaY]

I am trying to tell the Indics, with whom my loyalty lies, that the project of indicization of Subcontinental Muslims is just the kind of quagmire where we would exhaust all our strength, without seeing much progress, making us vulnerable to destruction by our rivals - West, PRC and at the moment weakened Islamic powers in West Asia. I am trying to tell them that instead of seeing Subcontinental Muslims as shackles on our feet, we should seek cooperation from them to subdue our foes.

It is not that difficult to Indicise sub-continental muslims. And it does not require genocide.

All it needs is clever use of intent, capabilities, administration, and information.

[RajeshA]

I am trying to tell the Indics, with whom my loyalty lies, that the project of indicization of Subcontinental Muslims is just the kind of quagmire where we would exhaust all our strength, without seeing much progress, making us vulnerable to destruction by our rivals - West, PRC and at the moment weakened Islamic powers in West Asia. I am trying to tell them that instead of seeing Subcontinental Muslims as shackles on our feet, we should seek cooperation from them to subdue our foes.

It is not that difficult to Indicise sub-continental muslims. And it does not require genocide.

All it needs is clever use of intent, capabilities, administration, and information.

Earlier on, I have talked at some length of how, what you suggest, can be done!

But we have to also understand, that any substantive and determined effort at it, could also cause a backlash, a reaction from invested interests amongst the target group, people who have substantial following, or who can influence those who have substantial following.

[JwalaMukhi]

Hundreds of years of mental slavery wont go away soon. West Asian Muslims are seen as being Deen originator hence every aspect of life has to pay homage to these alien barbarians. To my simple mind , there are very choices. The image of these ouside barbarains must be shattererd using all possible means and Indics must rebuild the economy as well defences and then openly engage /force philiosophical dicsussion and let Truth come out and win. Dont mean to Insult any dogma but non compatiability of Islam as we know of and the 21st century humanistic, scientific values must be made obvious and choice made clear to them. Either they amend , join, part of the family or be relegated to the dustbin of history in near future.

Although, quite well known, it might be relevant to identify some of core interactions of Islam with Indics as it happened.
The alien ideology found fertile grounds due to
1) Sword
2) Legitimization of ill-gotten wealth
3) Promise of more scope for grabbing wealth (either through Sword or demography - not necessarily in that order)
4) Deemed superior to Indic ideology
5) Caught in unfortunate quagmire of one way street

Pakistan, is indulging in proving item 4. Bangladesh is having dreams to follow pakistan, although still not very clear. But on the whole it seems that a substantial section in the Indian sub continent is having wet dreams about item 4 and trying to pose and strut as arabs.

Well, if the population in Indian sub-continent realizes its roots and drops the posture of being arabs, that population is not doing any favor to Indics, they are doing a favor to themselves primarily. They would have demonstrated the honesty and integrity needed to face the truth. Although, this could help secondarily for Indian sub-continent to achieve the grandiose vision earlier, but it is not a necessary condition. The canard that India could not achieve what it wants without the help of the prodigals, needs to be exposed. India could achieve what it has to, inspite of the prodigals, albeit it could take longer.
But being in a hurry and incorporating disparate elements into one, hoping amalgamation can occur, will vitiate more decomposition. History can await India's arrival.
It is important to let the wannabe arabs to stew in their own juices, they have made their beds, they better lie in it. All the more power to them and good luck in proving item 4.
In the meantime, India can offer help for prodigals returning, but not necessarily pin its hope on that. India cannot and will not be held back because of some wannabe arabs.

[brihaspati]

What is the problem with thinking of Indicization of all who remain part of Indian society, whose cultural and ideological life is not primarily focused or centred in India? Especially those who think that they have supra-human authority to convert others to their non-Indic ideologies?

Too many times we stop at this circular argument from which we never break out : we cannot demand and "persuade" others to become Indic-zed because that will cause tremendous resistance and backlash and upheaval etc.., but we will allow them to preach against ourselves and not create any backlash or resist and allow them to grow in numbers. So that they gain strength continuously and at one point comes the time when the physical threat of "resistance/backlash" becomes so overwhelming in our minds that we surrender without resisting.

We have internalized external retreat and defeat to such an extent that we imagine defeat even before we have started. It is so important to think that we "can"!

[RajeshA]

brihaspati garu,

My previous remarks regarding not pushing an agenda of Indicization of Subcontinental Muslims right now was in the context of threats to India, and priorization of those threats. I think that the biggest threat comes from China and not from the Islamists.

I would rather have Muslims in our corner of the ring when we go fisticuffs with the Chinese than have our house in turmoil making the work of the Chinese a walkover over India.

It is not the case of being afraid of taking on Islam, or fear for secularism in India, or any of that jazz. My threat assessment is different.

I hope that clarifies.

[brihaspati]

Well, I also sympathize with the tactical necessity of trying to isolate one single enemy at a time for destruction. But my assessment is that we cannot isolate them and they will seek each other out for alliance. Only that IM having somewhat confused "roots" - with overlays of "Indic" morality may not always match up with the deception of the Chinese leadership - so may be left around to face the brunt once the Chinese scurry back to their domains after making a surprise dig.

China cannot hold down the subcontinent for long for occupation - and the Chinese leadership know that very well. If at all they succeed to penetrate to any depth they will try to encourage - and the Islamists will jump to the bait - to create a separate northern territory along the GV. This adds another buffer to the Chinese, to secure the northern plains leading to Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. On the other hand the suviving Hindus in the south will be a thorn in the side of the Islamic north to keep them under check - which is also fine for China.

The confrontation with China, if it at all takes place will be brief - and substantially catastrophic for one or both parties. However the confrontation with Islamists will be prolonged and more confused because of the contamination of our national ideologic considerations with a certain "weakness"/fondness for Islamists - and therefore more damaging. Regardless of whatever you try to do to win them over - the fundamental tendency to strike out on their own as "lords" of all they see "as and when opportune" will remain as long as the theologians and their networks can sustain themselves. That ambition to subdue and enslave is a fundamental drive entwined and enmeshed in the ideology - even as it is delivered at the "gutter level" (and not always visible at the sanitized "public face", university or "pious alim/mufti" level) is something that is never built in - in our calculations.

The same fond hope and doubts on our side based on tactical outward pretensions that led to the riots of 46-47, still persists, and will bring us to another disaster - if we cannot think of preventive measures in time.

[RajeshA]

brihaspati garu,

the threat scenario, that I have in mind is following.

• Occupation by China: Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Silguri Corridor, Bhutan become part of China.
• Occupation by Bangladesh: Tripura, West Bengal
• Occupation by Pakistan: J&K
• Occupation by Maoist Nepal: Jharkhand, Orissa, Chattisgarh.

I am considering a scenario, where the Chinese cut off India's Northeast from India, arm the Naxals to an extent that it becomes a full-scale rebellion against the Indian State, which feels itself incapable of using too much force against its own people, and give a security cover to the Maoists, Pakistan and Bangladesh to resist India. So I am considering a Chinese War on India taking all its allies in South Asia along on the crusade.

So I do consider that the Islamists would align with the Chinese and act according to war plans written in Beijing.

The question is how do we forestall this - both the Sino-Islamic Alliance and the Chinese Aggression.

x-posting from Managing Chinese Threat Thread

Check this scenario which is never discussed by Kaplan. IOR is not going to be the theatre of conflict but the land borders around the Himalayas will be the region of real conflict

India prospers and it soon finds itself surrounded by powerful enemies. As war erupts. India joins the Allies against the Hegemony.

WW3: The Third Human Civil War
India one of the major allied powers during the Third Human Civil War, fought alongside the United States, EU, Mexico, Korea, AU, Australia, Japan, Brazil and Israel against the Hegemony. India provided the bulk of the allied soldiers and opened up a second front which in time broke apart the Hegemony and led to its fall.

Acharya garu,

This is all pretty much in the future, going from the timestamp on these scenarios.

To be honest, at first I thought of this as a huge mountain of crap, and out of respect, I did not respond to the post. Now I am giving it some more thought. Actually the scenarios in the video still have not been the clinchers in changing my view, simply stimulants.

In the video scenario, one is presented with two very powerful powers working in concert - China and the Islamic World.

I personally don't think the Islamic World would really have much in the way of conventional weaponry or an economy to support war. Should they start a war, all of them would just get decimated. Like oil, their prosperity is also not for the eternity. When Oil and Gas runs out, one would see that a desert population full of uneducated, irrational, hot-headed idiots is hardly going to have any productive capability. Unless, unless some other power like China gives sufficient weaponry to the Islamics to use their destructive capability, the Islamics are going to find themselves incapable of fighting conventional wars.

But I find the red areas of the following scenario fully credible.



I am quite convinced that the Chinese have designs on India's North Eastern region. The region could fall to the Chinese due to the following factors:

1. Maoism spreads in Nepal, India's East - Orissa, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Bihar, West Bengal, etc. and makes India's supply lines through the Indian mainland vulnerable as well as spread chaos through the region at the instigation of the Chinese.
2. Bangladesh becomes antagonistic to India - Chinese are going to build the Chittagong port, increasing their presence in Bangladesh and Bangladesh politics. It is not inconceivable that the Chinese push the Bangladeshis to take an antagonistic line towards India, and gives the Bangladeshis nukes as well. Whether they give nukes or not to Bangladesh, it is still possible that Bangladesh would not allow India to access India's North-East through its territory. At the instigation of the Chinese, the Bangladeshis could even start a new front against India and send in troops into India's North-East. China could promise them, that Bangladesh would be allowed to keep certain areas like Tripura, etc. where there already are a big Bangladeshi demographic presence.
3. Nepal offer PLA an army base on Nepali soil. - Considering that the Maoists in Nepal are almost in power there, and now they have a rich patron in Beijing, willing to give the Maoists enough money to finance their further arming to the teeth, it is quite conceivable the Maoists would see a PLA base in Nepal as an insurance policy against Indian retaliation. If under Chinese nuclear umbrella, the Pakistanis have been arming Jihadis inside India and pushing them to cause terrorism, same way Nepal could become a Maoist stronghold, also under Chinese security umbrella, supporting the Naxalites in India.
4. Myanmar allows PLA to station troops along the Indian border to Myanmar - Myanmar is already in China's pocket. Secondly Myanmar is going to be China's primary route to the Indian Ocean. Such an enormous economic undertaking would be secured using PLA soldiers through Myanmar. These PLA soldiers would be available for the invasion into India.
5. Tibet is already fully militarized with the Chinese having set up many border roads, airfields, railroads and Army bases.

So despite the Indian Armed Forces preparing as much as possible - the situation that the whole of India's North East is surrounded or surroundable by the Chinese or their allies is just not ignorable.

I have some thoughts on how to escape this scenario. Will talk about them in future posts.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
I am slightly concerned, that it may not be wise to game every scenario of Chinese or Pakistani war designs or territorial gains. Our analysis may help those who are seeking to understand the possible Indian reactions and potential future political and military decisionmaking within India. I try to build in that factor in my analysis and find myself saying things to simply lead such moles in the wrong direction. I assume that they will have sufficient ears and eyes within "official" channels and actual corridors of power to estimate what is actually being "decided on".

What we write here can be interpreted as the "unofficial" version of policymakers, testing of water by "inner core", psy-ops, or the potential future thinking that ha snot been tagged by powers that be. As such it may provide important clues to how Indian leaders may react psychologically to future hostile moves.

Hopefully you will suggest all the wrong things!

[Prem]

Dont forget the Nuke. PRC cant afford to go back 500 years and falls under Japanese loving and tender benevolence . Dragon have already shown the Nippon real teeth and there is no going back for CHICOM pretending to be Maltese. This one factor alone is enough to deter them. If and When push come to shove , they will let Poak fight it out alone. More than them , Uncle will try to save Munna.

[brihaspati]

My projection is that IM will be left high and dry by all three of Mahjong, Sam, and Slumabad. They will all three encourage the IM on the sly, China may even do some distracting action in the east and north - but then they will never really show their hands. Which means "harit pradesh" will have to fight it out on the ground on their own.

Is that difficult for the "harit-wallahs? could be - in the long run. But in the short run they may get some spectacular successes. In fact I wish they do. That will make things so much more easier.

[svinayak]

Acharya garu,

This is all pretty much in the future, going from the timestamp on these scenarios.

To be honest, at first I thought of this as a huge mountain of crap, and out of respect, I did not respond to the post. Now I am giving it some more thought. Actually the scenarios in the video still have not been the clinchers in changing my view, simply stimulants.

The years in those video are in 2056. India will be 1.5 B or 1.7B population. There is no way any nation can just come inside. What is being suggested is for countries like Pak which are in a pincer state.

They need western media to spread their ideology, western aid to survive and wester arms to defend.
To spread their ideology they will friendly media inside India. Until India realizes and controls the media inside India nobody can change the views of the Indians including IMs

[RajeshA]

brihaspati garu,

the threat scenario, that I have in mind is following.

• Occupation by China: Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Silguri Corridor, Bhutan become part of China.
• Occupation by Bangladesh: Tripura, West Bengal
• Occupation by Pakistan: J&K
• Occupation by Maoist Nepal: Jharkhand, Orissa, Chattisgarh.

I am considering a scenario, where the Chinese cut off India's Northeast from India, arm the Naxals to an extent that it becomes a full-scale rebellion against the Indian State, which feels itself incapable of using too much force against its own people, and give a security cover to the Maoists, Pakistan and Bangladesh to resist India. So I am considering a Chinese War on India taking all its allies in South Asia along on the crusade.

So I do consider that the Islamists would align with the Chinese and act according to war plans written in Beijing.

The question is how do we forestall this - both the Sino-Islamic Alliance and the Chinese Aggression.

Despite the Indian Armed Forces preparing as much as possible - the situation that the whole of India's North East is surrounded or surroundable by the Chinese or their allies is just not ignorable.

I have some thoughts on how to escape this scenario. Will talk about them in future posts.

China has many allies in South Asia, Pakistan being just the most prominent. But Pakistan is also so loud in anti-Indian words and deeds, that it sort of dominates India's threat perception making us either blind or appeasing towards other allies of China in the Indian Subcontinent - the Naxalites, CPI-M, the Nepali Maoists, the former Nepali King, the Nepali Press, the Nepali Communists, BNP from Bangladesh, Sri Lankans, Maldivians, etc. Anti-Indianism is so instinctive and wide-spread in the Indian Subcontinent, that the Chinese find it quite easy to tap into it for their own ends. This anti-Indianism is based on the inferiority complex of India's neighbors and their constant angst, their paranoia and the slightest slight is considered by them as immensely offending. There is nothing India can do about it.

On the other hand, these countries find China to be an especially attractive partner to balance off India, but in their enthusiasm to do so, as well as to above mentioned factors, they almost invariably go overboard and give away all sorts of strategic concessions to the Chinese. They have found out that the more they pander to Chinese requests, the more India would pander to them. There is nothing India can do about it. These countries are no more susceptible to Indian political pressure to show restraint while inviting foreign powers into the region.

So the political and economic dynamics in the Indian Subcontinent have changed to favor Chinese national interests to the detriment of Indian national interests. This downwards slide would continue if left on auto-pilot, and something dramatic is not done. The more time is given, the more India can expect a Chinese Encirclement of India's Northeast and Maoist-Naxalite Secessionism in India's East.

There is only so much one can do in form of military build-up in the Indian Northeast and national consolidation there in the given time. It will always be possible for external forces to continue to keep India's fires to keep simmering. The basic constraint remains the geography of the region, and a relative weakness in political representation of the Northeast in Delhi.

Similarly there is going to be pressure on India's Coastal Regions from an increase in PLAN presence in the IOR, with naval base facilities in Great Coco Island and Sittwe in Myanmar, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Marao in Maldives and Gwadar in Baluchistan, Pakistan, and commercial ports in Chittagong and elsewhere.

In the North, China is already sitting in Gilgit-Baltistan and is giving full support to Pakistan for Kashmir.

In order to deal with all these pressures from the periphery of India, India needs a new bold plan. Anything less than that would mean a slow but steady loss of Indian capacity to secure Indian territorial integrity. India needs to consolidate the Indian Subcontinent as early as possible.

One way to go about that is by using a muscular approach, which I have spoken of in the following posts.

1. Link 01
2. Link 02
3. Link 03
4. Link 04
5. Link 05
6. Link 06
7. Link 07
8. Link 08
9. Link 09
10. Link 10
11. Link 11
12. Link 12
13. Link 13
14. Link 14

The other way, perhaps a more productive way would be to go about the regional integration route as favored by AKalam ji.

When Pakistan says India cannot realize her full potential without making peace with Pakistan (giving Kashmir to Pakistan) then Pakistan has a point. India cannot realize her potential as long as there is inter-state tension in the Indian Subcontinent. However for India to dream of superpowerdom, it is not necessary to pay heed to Pakistan's demands, but it would be necessary to take on every body else on board - Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Maldives. By consolidating the rest of the Indian Subcontinent under the Indian Constitution, would allow India an enormous amount of leeway in dealing with our other regional challenges.

So the proposal is to integrate India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Maldives as well as Sindh and Baluchistan into a singular political union.

Escaping the Chinese Chakravyuh
I would contend that Indian Northeast can only then be saved from Chinese avarice if and only if the Bangladeshis are fully on board the Indian Ship, in a complete strategic embrace. This is only possible if there is a true political union between India and Bangladesh.

With Bangladesh again part of United India, there will be no chicken's neck situation in the Siliguri Corridor, Indian forces would not be having to face 200,000 Bangladeshi soldiers allied to China, and the Bangladeshis who have migrated to the Indian Northeast would not be working against Indian military there. Instead India would be having an additional 200,000 soldiers at her beckon and command, willing to do their part in giving the Chinese a bloody nose. Moreover the Indian Northeast would not be feeling like some arbitrary attachment to the Indian Mainland but rather a fully integrated Eastern part of India. The Northeasterners would also feel much more strongly united with India.

Also Myanmar would not be having an India more than willing to work with Myanmar but getting nothing in return. Myanmar would be facing an India on a 1609 km border, which is not dependent on Myanmar's cooperation in tackling secessionism in India, but rather a united superpower willing to impress on Myanmar to reduce the Chinese influence there. With Bangladesh part of the Indian Union, we would be far better placed to push back China from the Indian Ocean Region. Alternatively at a later point in time, India could offer Myanmar similar conditions for accession.

With Nepal in United India, India can sleep better, that a PLA base would not be coming up 360 km from Delhi. Most important is that the Chinese should not get any military foothold in the Indian Subcontinent, or for that matter be able to better assist the various paramilitary and guerrilla groups it is sustaining in the Indian Subcontinent, most prominently the Naxalites.

Indian forces ought to be facing the Chinese at the Nepal-Tibetan border and not the Indo-Nepalese border.

With Sri Lanka and Maldives in the United India, there is so much less space for China to put up bases in the Indian Ocean.

The most significant development would be psychological for India, that India need not see herself surrounded, contained and boxed in, like a fat duck roasting in the South Asian oven, for a feast later on by Peking. India would be able to feel as a genuine candidate for superpowerdom. There will be a new confidence in India about the strategic possibilities in the world. There will be a lot less to worry about for the strategic community in India and they would be able to concentrate on strategic growth.

I'll be going into the various considerations and aspects of implementation over the next posts.

[brihaspati]

Let us assume that BD and Nepal "voluntarily" unites with India (which I think is virtually impossible unless geological disasters or defeat in war forces them to). But no such "union" will be undisputed. There will remain sections of Nepali and BD society who would dream of disrupting the union or taking revenge unless such sections are "taken out" during the process of the "union". Which also means a constant additional surveillance and management of that threat now as an internal problem.

Which makes me curious about the very process of the union. I have thought much about this, but I have not written about it and I am not sure you should detail the mechanism in your mind, on forum!

Any way, forget about release of forces from current borders because of the "union", we may actually need to virtually maintain even more forces for several generations along exactly the old boundaries.

[Nair]

Some interesting posts but China will never let the NE get overrun by Islamists...they are not stupid they know they would be next. After all the Chinese are the same idol lovers just like the Hindus.

However the NE is in real danger of muslim separatism..the other pockets of heavy Muslim presence like Hyderabad,Delhi or Kerala thankfully do not have continuous geographical continuity and hence are not that dangerous. If things continue as they are then India will have to give up the NE.

[brihaspati]

Err.. Hyderabad, God's own country and Delhi need not be actually as "isolated" as they may appear. Delhi is close to the major belts in UP, from there through Bihar and WB. Join in BD, and the Sylhet adjoining areas of Assam valley, through to Islamic colonies in Assam and hence through to NE. Through central India, a corridor exists, and another conduit runs through coastal western Indian states, to Kerala.

But I feel that all five threats (External/PRC/PAK/backers+Islamists+Communists/Maoists+EJs+ethnic separatists) needs to be equally considered and not one single source to the complete neglect of the others. They may actually collaborate with each other and give the impression that they are acting independently.

Once PRC starts encouraging Islamists and co., in NE, they may not be bothered about consequences (since they may not even dream of holding onto Indian NE areas directly on a long term basis given the logistics) or they may not have any control over the consequences.

[Nair]

You could pull a link connecting Kerala/Delhi/Hyderabad/mumbai but realistically all these areas are surrounded by heavy Hindu presence. I guess one of the few benefits of the Islamists moving away from the Indian village countryside and getting heavily concentrated in few urban ghettos.

However the NE is another matter all together... geographical continuity with Bangladesh and a tenuous land link to mainland India makes that whole area extremely volatile. I fail to understand the Chinese game there...they are not stupid,their leaders think for the long term, they know what will happen if the NE gets overrun. The only place left to go for them will be into China.

[brihaspati]

Once again I think the mistake here is to assume that the "urban ghettos" are surrounded by overwhelming non-Muslim presence. But that non-Muslims presence is divided, and undecided on what action to take and how to thwart Islamist designs. Their own leadership constantly harangue them about the total absence of any such potential Islamist behaviour. Remember that capturing the urban centres allowed the first Islamic invaders to gradually extend their control over the country and for a long time, the non-urban could not hit back - until of course the initial compromisers and Hindu elite "ohs-so-holy and righteous" protectors of the rights of all faiths and communities were wiped off by the very people they protected - so that new leadership free of that psychological plague could emerge.

But you need to look at the networks of theological institutions, Sufi networks, mosque and Dawa networks that exist even in the country side outside of urban centres. Especially this is apparent all along the Ganges. I know GV quite well, and I disagree that the Islamists are isolated in city ghettos. They have proceeded to attach contiguous villages and zones to make a near continuous strip that stretches from Meerut to Sunderbans in WB. Think carefully and ask people in MP, MH, Karnataka, TN, and Kerala (even parts of Andhra) - you will see the network.

The Chinese may not have much handle in the south-western portions of their domains. This is too much a volcanic zone of myriad ethnic fissures, and a very difficult terrain for the plains Han, even for the PLA to move about compared to the rather more open spaces of Tibet. They can adapt and get along and use the Islamists - and that may be the best option for them, hoping to buy them off or draw them into mor efavourable terrain to finish them.

[Pratyush]

B,

How will the situation wrt the muslim apeasement evolve in the light of RJB judgement.

[brihaspati]

For all appearances, the judges seem to have pulled a coup. But it is possible that heads in the surveillance and agencies will roll. Could be downright incompetence on the latter's part for failing to inform the regime in time of what the judges were headed at. But the greater concern for the regime will be the possibility that sections of its own apparatus have their own agenda different from the regime's itself, and hence deliberately failed to inform the political bosses.

This can lead to even greater arbitrary and personalized decision making - for fear that parts of admin may non-cooperate. So we may see more and more arbitrary moves which appear to come without warning. But this reminds of the last days of the IG regime and its devastating consequences.

[Rampy]

China Plays to Win the 21st Century's Great Game
M D Nalapat's commentary on China ;explains that in the 21st century version of the Great Game, China seeks to replace the U.S. as the dominant player in Asia by manipulating Pakistan to ensure a NATO failure in Afghanistan.]

http://www.jinsa.org/node/2025

[TonyMontana]

So the proposal is to integrate India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Maldives as well as Sindh and Baluchistan into a singular political union.

As another poster has mentioned. There isn't currently any internal drives that favour such a union in these countries. So in order to integrate such a union, you would need coersion and force. Doesn't that mean pushing these countries further into the Chinese camp? To them, it seems options are Indian overlords that wants wholesale integration, or Chinese overlords that "promises" their freedom as a tributory state. Which one to them is the lesser of the two evils?

[brihaspati]

Well the Tibetan example does not support any claims of "promises" of "freedom as tributary state". I am in regular touch with some Nepalis, and their ideas of submitting to "overlordship" is very clear - they are quite aware of what will actually happen if China overruns. Already there are counter-whispers. These are not active Maoists pretending to be ex-Maoists trying to con an Indian. I know some of them from teenage years from very "trying" conditions in the Terai [you know that the border there is highly porous] - sometimes facing life-risks together.

Coercion is not always necessary overtly, but a much more subtle "coercion" is possible, an art which the current Chinese leadership have never learned, and the current official Indian leadership is scared of using. The reasons behind such fear are not on-topic here for discussion. But these self-restrictive fears will dissipate with upcoming generations, and Indian tactics and strategy will change.

[TonyMontana]

Well the Tibetan example does not support any claims of "promises" of "freedom as tributary state".

Touche! But I contest that the annexation of Tibet is from a era long since gone. Too difficult in today's geopolitical environment to legitamately obsorb another country. A puppet state, a la NoKo or Pakistan is a better option.

I am in regular touch with some Nepalis, and their ideas of submitting to "overlordship" is very clear - they are quite aware of what will actually happen if China overruns. Already there are counter-whispers. These are not active Maoists pretending to be ex-Maoists trying to con an Indian. I know some of them from teenage years from very "trying" conditions in the Terai [you know that the border there is highly porous] - sometimes facing life-risks together.

Coercion is not always necessary overtly, but a much more subtle "coercion" is possible, an art which the current Chinese leadership have never learned, and the current official Indian leadership is scared of using. The reasons behind such fear are not on-topic here for discussion. But these self-restrictive fears will dissipate with upcoming generations, and Indian tactics and strategy will change.

Very interesting observation. Always nice to get first hand accounts. Will elabrate later when I have more time.

[brihaspati]

Yes annexation of Tibet first took place a long time ago, but the PLA's actions and PRC representatives continued dancing in Tibet - itself does not let all of the Nepalis forget. They are in much closer touch with Tibet - and no amount of PLA supervision can really seal the border on that side.

[JwalaMukhi]

As another poster has mentioned. There isn't currently any internal drives that favour such a union in these countries. So in order to integrate such a union, you would need coersion and force. Doesn't that mean pushing these countries further into the Chinese camp? To them, it seems options are Indian overlords that wants wholesale integration, or Chinese overlords that "promises" their freedom as a tributory state. Which one to them is the lesser of the two evils?

Integration does not automatically strip their freedom, but there is a lot of distance between the cup and sip. i.e., integration is much better than "promises of freedom", which more often than not are false, especially coming from chinese overlords. Chinese overlords promising freedom would be laughable at best.

By the way, it is case of solomon and the baby. While India has deep concern about the baby, the chinese overlords would care less if the baby is cut into two or three pieces. Survival of the baby is of less concern, but chinese overlords will "promise individual identity" to each dead piece
Obviously integration is better shake and not evil, it is all good. No evil there. The only evil is when chinese overlords try poisoning watering hole of the Indian overlords.

[Pratyush]

B,

emergency or 1984.

Sorry if I come accross as a child. Am just eager to learn.

[RajeshA]

Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent: Indic-Muslim Relations

Taking in 150 million Bangladeshi Muslims into a United India is an idea of daunting proportions. At one go, we would be almost doubling the Muslim population in India. It is a big risk, because this alone can shift the course of the Indian Ship from its present course - A modern prosperous state with an increasing level of self-consciousness in the society rooted in the Dharmic traditions, with an harmonious relationship between the various faiths. Could an addition of another 150 million Muslims give rise to more communal strife or worse civil war? Could an addition of 150 million Muslims change the political landscape of India to an extent that parliamentary voting takes place not in accordance with the current consensus of India's national interests? It is a large gamble, but there are also reason for hope that the gamble could work, if India takes a series of precautions and there is a fundamental understanding amongst the groups - Indics and Muslims.

Important is to ensure that the infusion of more Muslims (Bangladeshi Muslims) into a United India is not to an extent that changes the direction of the Indian Ship in any substantial way. My hunch is that with Bangladesh it would not. Whereas a merger with Pakistan would sink the Indian ship without doubt.

So a consolidation of the Indian Subcontinent cannot be discussed before going into the crucial question of Indic-Muslim relations in India, and later in United India. Being the first roadblock, one needs to tackle the issue head on. Indics and Muslims have to acknowledge that we have two different perspectives, we have social problems, and they need to be tackled head on, and cannot be swept under the carpet or sweet-talked.

When we set about to uniting India and Bangladesh, and thereby Indian Muslims and Bangladeshi Muslims in one state, we would in fact be giving the Indian Muslims a far bigger political say in India. Through their sheer numbers, they would have far more representation in the Indian Parliament. So we are in fact doing the Indian Muslims a big favor. Can India demand something from the Indian Muslims in return? If yes, I would suggest we start with the following short list. The Indics and the Muslims should strive for a fundamental understanding and expectations on some issues.

1. Modernism
2. Acknowledgement and Appreciation of Ethnic and Cultural Roots
3. Freedom to Choose/Change Faith, Freedom to Marry into Other Faiths
4. Curbs on Hate Speech in the Mosques
5. Indian Muslim Nationalism

Modernism - What we in India do not want is a horde of jahil Muslims, who do not want to know anything more about the world. We want, not only Muslims, but every Indian citizen, to have the opportunity, the social sanction, and the openness of mind to pursue the natural sciences, philosophy, social sciences, history, etc. What is needed is not an half-hearted acknowledgement by the Muslims to this, but a determined program and effort to be open to the thought processes of the modern world and not just of an Islamic society. The Muslims need to interpret Islam according to the Modern World, and not the modern world according to Islam. To a large extent this is possible through a good and balanced education, where different strains of thought and world view are presented to the students.

Basically the situation can only change if India in general expands the number of schools in India and gets the Muslim children to visit those schools. The standard of schooling needs to be raised and there ought to be a much stricter supervision of these schools.

It would also help if Muslims are asked to talk on TV on a variety of topics, from environment, to culture, to sports, to foreign affairs, to governance issues. Only if the Muslims are subjected to a wider variety of role models for them, would they be willing to look beyond just religion.

Muslim Girls education and emancipation should be encouraged as much as possible, even if it involves paying off parents with some rations, rice, etc. They should have Indic girls as school-mates, so that they learn a different mindset.

Actually to push the Muslims into modernity, this should be acknowledged as a top priority and administrative machinery set up to oversee that obscurantist and extremist practices are not being allowed, and any such practice is being dealt by the law according to laws extra written to deal with them.

Acknowledgement and Appreciation of Ethnic and Cultural Roots
There is too much emphasis in Muslim societies that they are Muslims, but often the ethnic origin and cultural component are ignored. It is important for them to acknowledge that are converts, and before embracing Islam, they had other faiths, their forefathers belonged to other faiths, faiths of the many Indics around them in their neighborhoods. Instead of seeing themselves as some people who settled from Arab countries, Turks, or Persians, they should consider themselves sons of the soil, natives, and that this forms the most important part of their identity. The commonality of ethnicity that Muslims and Indics share in the Indian Subcontinent needs to be emphasized. The Muslims should pursue the richness of culture that has developed in the Muslim milieu in the Indian Subcontinent - Urdu, Courtesy, Ghazals, Qawaali, Shayari, Mujra, Pigeon flying and breeding, Nawabi Attire, etc., but they should also try to understand and appreciate the cultural practices of the others, of their forefathers.

Again the more parading that takes place in front of cameras of Indian Muslims who feel at ease indulging in Indian culture, and the general appreciation for such people, would inspire the Muslims of the Subcontinent to accept their broader cultural environment. A certain introduction to the cultural landscape of the land even in the school years would go a long way, in making adult Muslims feel at ease with other cultural practices. Music and Literature scholarship for young Muslims from Muslim communities would also help.

Of course the message needs to be brought into the mosques as well, which remains the challenge, but through a system of incentives and control could also be made possible.

Freedom to Choose/Change Faith, Freedom to Marry into Other Faiths
Perhaps these are the issues that most rile Hindus. Whereas Muslims freely proselytize Islam, often when it comes to the question of some Muslim wanting to change religion to some Indic religion is declared apostate by the religion, and according to some schools in Islam, even Wajib-ul Qatl.

Also when Muslims and Indics want to marry each other, the Indic is pressurized by the family of the Muslim to convert to Islam, whereas the Indic would put no such pressure on the Muslim boy or girl.

Such practices need to be punished by heavy fines and jail sentences either to the local mosque imam, which declares somebody apostate and tries to intimidate him or her or on the parents of the Muslim boy or girl who demand that others change their religion.

After all the Muslims do often claim that in Islam there is no compulsion in religion. It is time, they be required to put those words into deeds.

Curbs on Hate Speech in the Mosques
With more power comes more responsibility. What should not be tolerated is when Imams think they have a free pass at agitating the minds of the faithful impressionable.

There needs to be strict monitoring of both mosques and of imams. If any imam is found to be violating this principle, he would have to step down, pay a heavy fine, perhaps through confiscation of his private property, and the mosque's management should be turned over to some other imam, even one from a different school in Islam. There would be a need for several governmental agencies and Muslim citizen boards to work jointly on this.

Administrative Measures

In order to devise effective measures to see to a reform of Muslim society in India and to ensure harmonious Indic-Muslim relations, I think the following principles could be useful:

1. The way to deal both with a social problem and a society that likes to work on its agenda in secrecy is to first put them into the full glare of limelight. I am talking about Islam and Indic-Muslim Relations.
2. If something is wrong in society, then a society should have intelligence to formulate laws in a non-discriminatory way w.r.t. faith.
3. If one wants to deal with some community in some given geographical area, one should first go about and build a consensus at the level of a much wider geographical area with members of that community, and then having the sanction of that community, impose the solution on the smaller area. If one wants to tackle Muslim chauvinists in some village, one would have to gather some prominent and respected Muslims of the district, and get them to sanction your punishment of the village Muslims.
4. Religious Extremism in India should become unaffordable.

Some examples of administrative measures to deal with Islamic corrosiveness of Indian society:

1. Collection and Analysis of Demographic Data on neighborhoods
2. Administrative Infrastructure to deal timely with Inter-Faith conflicts
3. Population Control

Population Control
There is some fear amongst the Hindus, that the Muslims in India would procreate like crazy and soon become a majority. Well India should take a page from the Chinese - any children more than four would mean a heavy fine and if the person is not in a position to pay it at birth, the child would be taken away from the parents for good and raised in some orphanage without any further contact with the parents. This is hard, but India needs to have some effective population control.

Collection and Analysis of Demographic Data on neighborhoods
No action would ever be taken by the politicians on anything unless the going ons are properly captured and documented - that means India should have readily available data on stuff like

• How many of what religion live in an area (including Muslims). This can be plotted and simulated to see the changes, at any geographical level?
• How high has been the fertility in any region?
• How high have been the conversions from a religion into some other religion?
• How high have been reported (and verified) cases of violence by one religious community on the other?
• How high have been reported (and verified) cases of bullying and intimidation by one religious community of the other?
• How many of the reported (and verified) cases of violence, bullying, intimidation have been done justice to?
• How many people belong to religion-based gangs in a region?
• How many cases of religious extremism have been observed in a region?
• How many reported (and verified) incidents have there been in a region of a religious leader preaching hatred or violence?
• How high has been the migration of people from a region, and for what reason?

In fact all the demographic and social dynamics taking place in India should be readily visible in figures, statistics, maps and case narratives. The Subcontinental Unification may provide the right catalyst for introducing such a system of monitoring. May be some body on the lines of Human Rights Commission could be a good idea, only it would be a Faith Relations Commission with a substantial budget.

Administrative Infrastructure to deal timely with Inter-Faith conflicts.
In India we have a quite informal way of dealing with Hindu-Muslim issues. I think this needs to change. We need a full administrative machinery dedicated to stopping intimidation, bullying and violence of one religious community on another in the millions of neighborhoods in India. This administrative machinery should deal with Religious Gangs, Bullying, Intimidation, Discrimination, Ghettoisation, Communal Strife, etc. No more pushing everything under the carpet. The warts and all should be uncovered in the full glare of publicity and dealt with.

This administrative machinery needs to work together with respected citizens of various faith groups together at the local level and means and ways should be searched for resolving the situation peacefully where those who have tended to show heavy-handedness apologize and retreat or compensate by paying some mutually agreed sum. If this machinery cannot deal with the issues at hand, or with the people involved, then the case is given further to the law enforcement agencies.

Another mission statement of this administrative machinery would be to document all cases of abuse, so that the situation in a certain neighborhood, village or district is known to the state government and to the general public.

In the end we must understand, that the Muslims are citizens of the country and one would have to show them the courtesy and respect due to any other citizen, but one should work pro-actively to curb the corrosive effect Islam may be having on the Indian fabric. One has to use Education, Laws against Extremism, Incentives, Monitoring and Conflict-Resolution Administrative Machinery to curb this effect.

What India need to do is establish the Rule of Muslim Liberalism on the Indian Muslims through setting up an Administrative Machinery conceived to fight Muslim Extremism and Muslim Orthodoxy. In this Administrative Machinery many Indian Muslim Liberals would find a place, and thereby get a chance to lord over the Muslim extremists. Such jobs and role models would create more space for Indian Muslims to turn towards liberal thinking.

This is not supposed to be in any way a complete set of issues and measures in this regard - simply a starting.

I will talk about the perspective changes in the Indian and Indian Muslim consciousness in the next posts.

[harbans]

Rajesh Ji, i won't touch that with a barge pole as yet. Many of the changes you recommend will not meet discussion. India in a modern democracy has not been able to make similar changes for it's own muslim population. Why not try and indicize the Bukhari or Azamgarh types? I for one always believe changes will occur only if Islamist doctrine is challenged openly in a free press.

[RajeshA]

Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent: Evolution of Muslim Psyche - I

Indian Muslim Nationalism
This is something, that after so many decades, still has not really taken hold in the Indian Muslim community. There will be plenty of individual examples of exemplary patriotism amongst the Indian Muslims. What one needs in India is to go a step further - to develop a narrative amongst Indian Muslims, that they may be Muslims, but when it comes to regional and global affairs, they will look upon the issues from an Indian standpoint and consider India's national interests.

My theory is that Indian Muslims are not sure about who speaks for the Muslims on the Indian Subcontinent - Is it the Pakistanis or they themselves? If Bangladesh had not broken off from Pakistan, then for them it would have been almost a certainty, that the Pakistanis speak for them, but after 1971, the Indian Muslims are a bit less sure. What Pakistan lost in the form of East Pakistan as a qualification to be the spokesman for all Subcontinental Muslims, they more than made up by their propaganda. Indian Muslims still buy the crap from Pakistan, that Pakistan is more pious than Indian Muslim community, because of their so great Arab-Turk-Persian-Greek genes, their TFTA, or just because they bark a lot more about Islam, in fact 24/7, and a lot more louder. We don't see that many Feroze Khans telling the Pakistanis that they are crap.

There may still be some latent sentiments amongst the Indian Muslims that they are living in a temporary accommodation in the Indian Union. Either there will be another Partition of India allowing the Indian Muslims to join up with Pakistan, or the Indian Muslims would procreate in such numbers, they may overtake the Hindus, from where it would be a much simpler road to proclaiming India as a Muslim nation, or they may convert Hindus by such numbers through deceit, enticement, bullying and intimidation, that they would come much closer to establishing an Islamic State in India. Most of these are wet dreams, but that does not stop some sections of the Indian Muslim community to dream of these possibilities and to act accordingly. May be some Indian Muslims just think, they could carry out their lives in India albeit in Muslim ghettos where they live according to their laws, and even as they are physically in India, they all exist spiritually in the Ummah Ether. Or may be the Indian Muslims have dejectedly accepted their fates in India, but without too much enthusiasm or conviction.

We fear the developments where contiguous land spaces in the Gangetic Valley or elsewhere have come under the domination of Muslims, and one wonders whether they are readying to take over even larger swathes of land, just waiting for their grip on the areas to become ever stronger with time, so as to rebel at the instance of Pakistan at the right moment to proceed to join up the Muslim lands in India with Pakistan.

So the question assumes relevance as to how an infusion of Bangladeshi Muslims into a United India with a common destiny could influence the psyche of Indian Muslims.

First some facts and presumptions about Bangladeshi Muslims.

1. They have lived through a union with Pakistan. They know that it was a bad idea. In the minds of most Bangladeshis, Ummah is a failed concept, even though I see an additional need to highlight some history in the Bangladeshi society. Bangladeshis simply did not see the earlier mini-Ummah with Pakistan as either based on equality or fairness.
2. Another positive trait they bring into the marriage, is their ethnic pride. Perhaps because the Bangladeshis have had time to see themselves as both Muslim and as a single ethnicity in a nation for some time, they have had the opportunity to identify themselves both in terms of their faith and of their ethnicity, the latter identity having the time to mature.
3. Thirdly their ethnic identity to a much larger extent based on their being desis, people from the Indian Subcontinent, than may be the case with Pakistanis, who can't stop pretending they are the aulad of Arabs, Turks, Persians, Greeks, etc. So their enamorment and identification with the Muslim nations of the West is limited, despite Islam.
4. Since their ethnic identification with the Subcontinent is strong, it provides another positive trait, they bring to the table.
5. India often prides at being secular. We often say, "had it not been for Hindus, India would not have been secular". Well Bangladesh is 90% Muslims, and it is still forging ahead with a secular polity. For that alone, we should give them credit and encourage them.
6. Bangladesh has also been following developmental politics, so Bangladeshi Muslims are accustomed to both leadership and bread and butter issues. After having a state for themselves for close to three decades, they have learned to take responsibility, quite unlike the Indian Muslims who have been more of passive economic participants, expecting their share without necessarily having taken the responsibility of generating wealth on themselves, and I am not talking about Muslim individuals working to make a living.

So if we ignore the increase in total Muslim population in United India for the time being, and concentrate on the quality of psychology in Muslim society, then we could concede that an infusion of Bangladeshi Muslims into the Indian Union would enrich Indian Muslim society with valuable characteristics - aversion to Pakistani Islam, ethnic pride, rooting in the Indian Subcontinent, secularism, responsibility.

Even the increase in numbers would accrue some benefits to India. Indian Muslims would be twice as many as Pakistan's Muslims. The Two Nation Theory would be dead as a dodo. That would mean that India is the true home of the Subcontinental Muslims. It would mean Indics and Indian Muslims are indeed one people and not two nations. It would mean that Indics and Indian Muslims are together responsible for steering India to her destiny. That would make the Indian Muslim stand up and speak for India as a patriot, and not just for the contrived problems that Muslims in India face. We would be putting a nail in the coffin of the view that Pakistan is the promised land of the Subcontinental Muslims.

Perhaps we should analyze what effect a Union between India and Bangladesh could have on the success or failure of this demographic development in the Gangetic Valley. On the one hand, one could theorize that a bigger influx of Muslims from Bangladesh would make such endeavor even easier. But it could also go the other way too. The destruction of the Two-Nation Theory should also be considered. The Indian Muslim 'Mentality' to break off from India and somehow join up with the geography of Pakistan would also take a beating because the Two-Nation Theory would have been solidly debunked, and secondly an infusion of Bangladeshi Muslims into the collective of Indian Muslims could also mean a much stronger revulsion for joining Pakistan, going from the experiences of Bangladesh.

Also to be considered is that there would be a palpable shift of Muslim power from the Gangetic Valley to the Gangetic Delta. It would be the Bengali Muslims that would start to dictate India's internal and external policies with regards to the Muslims, and not the Muslims in the Hindi Heartland, or in Hyderabad or in Kerala. Not being subjected to Hindu domination, the Bengali Muslims would be far more willing to think rationally of problems and problem solving, than letting their complexes dictate behavior.

[harbans]

Not being subjected to Hindu domination, the Bengali Muslims would be far more willing to think rationally of problems and problem solving, than letting their complexes dictate behavior.

Rajesh Ji some of what you are espousing is extremely dangerous and laced with assumptions like the above. I have worked and lived with Bangladeshi's. In the 90's my company employed several Bangladeshi's. We flew them to Europe to work with us 3 Indians. In 2 months straight they filed cases against us complete with false charges. The case fell flat and our company took Polish Engineers on exactly the same terms. What i experienced was a complete hatred for India. So all's not exactly well even with Bangladeshi Muslims.

Hasina's efforts are improving Bangladesh indeed and moderates are gaining ground presently, but before we talk integration there are too many issues to resolve, the fundamental one being Islamist doctrine. When that is resoved, why Bangladesh, even Pakistan can come into the Indic fold. JM2P

[RajeshA]

Rajesh Ji, i won't touch that with a barge pole as yet. Many of the changes you recommend will not meet discussion. India in a modern democracy has not been able to make similar changes for it's own muslim population. Why not try and indicize the Bukhari or Azamgarh types? I for one always believe changes will occur only if Islamist doctrine is challenged openly in a free press.

India's vote bank politics have wired into the Islamist bunch, and made itself dependent on them.

My recommendation is two fold -

1. Just as the Indian Government supported the reform of Hindu society - casteism, sati, child-marriage, dowry burnings, widow remarriage, etc; same way the Indian Government should publicly admit that there are problems with Islam and in Indic-Muslim relations and need attending to.
2. I would encourage the Indian Government to put up an official and semi-official administrative machinery to deal with those ills. In this administrative machinery beside the Indics, jobs should be given to liberal and reform-minded Muslims (LRM Muslims). Let's create a program of reform within the Muslim community and send in liberal and reform-minded Muslims as our soldiers to implement that program. By giving jobs to Muslims who have proved themselves as liberal and reform-minded in the past, one is creating another strong driver to influence Muslim society in India.

At the moment, India tends to invest money in Muslim society, e.g. for Haj Travel, etc. to win goodwill amongst the Muslims, but there is still no dedicated program to make them liberal and reform-minded. We have to institute a program which rewards liberalism amongst Muslims and rewards are not just due to the fact that they are Muslims.

Not being subjected to Hindu domination, the Bengali Muslims would be far more willing to think rationally of problems and problem solving, than letting their complexes dictate behavior.

Rajesh Ji some of what you are espousing is extremely dangerous and laced with assumptions like the above. I have worked and lived with Bangladeshi's. In the 90's my company employed several Bangladeshi's. We flew them to Europe to work with us 3 Indians. In 2 months straight they filed cases against us complete with false charges. The case fell flat and our company took Polish Engineers on exactly the same terms. What i experienced was a complete hatred for India. So all's not exactly well even with Bangladeshi Muslims.

Hasina's efforts are improving Bangladesh indeed and moderates are gaining ground presently, but before we talk integration there are too many issues to resolve, the fundamental one being Islamist doctrine. When that is resoved, why Bangladesh, even Pakistan can come into the Indic fold. JM2P

Harbans ji,
that is indeed not the kind of experiences after which one would have positive feelings towards Bangladeshis. I am however not sure, that we would see lesser animosity towards India from Nepalese or Sinhala, not to speak of Pakistanis.

Those comments I made were based on my impressions that Bangladesh as a country is showing genuine interest in developmental politics. They genuinely want to improve the lot of their people. This is very much different than what we see in Pakistan, where everybody is trying to grab anything that comes into their hands, the country be damned. To me, that sounds like rational people.

I agree with your views on danger posed by Islamism. But I am also convinced that in India, we would have to devise a mixture of carrots and sticks to deal with it - big heavy sticks to those who preach violence, and carrots to those who are trying to reform it.

[darshhan]

Absolutely right Harbans ji.The main question is how can you change the quran which is the root of this doctrine.It is almost impossible to do so right now.

[harbans]

My recommendation is two fold -

1. Just as the Indian Government supported the reform of Hindu society - casteism, sati, child-marriage, dowry burnings, widow remarriage, etc; same way the Indian Government should publicly admit that there are problems with Islam and in Indic-Muslim relations and need attending to.

Reforms in Hindu society occurred quite easily and still do within a generation because the ills of Casteism, Sati don't have singular doctrinal prescription or focus on these ills. The Arya Samaj for example hardly had resistance and grew rapidly in large numbers. From castesit cultural mindsets in the rural areas on migration to urban areas the Villagers become comfortable within a generation. I've never seen a restaurant advertize only for upper castes or something like that. People learn to eat and share under urban work pressures.

The big thing is GOI publicly admitting what you quote. That's not going to happen any time soon. GOI is presently in the process of using it's machinery to prove that if there is a problem in Islam there is also a problem in Hinduism..or rather there is a problem in Islam because of Hinduism, like our Ms Suzanne.

I really don't see how one can go about it in the present context. Darshanji, yes indeed, for example in the Koran in myriad verses Allah describes himself as a deciever. It's not my take if people want to be led by someone openly claiming to be a deciever, but what gets my goat and is pertinent to me is the concept of Jihad and aggression against both the Moderate Muslim and indeed the Kafir. That will always ensure simmering conflict between Extremist Muslims against Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindu's and indeed against moderate muslims for time to come. We have to address those pillars of Islam and India must not give a home to people who feel so.

Rajeshji BTW i admire how you phrase posts, crystallize ideas and spread them across succinctly. Continue doing so, i sort of like the 'go get' 'can do' attitude coming across your posts. Yopu've crystallized some complex scenarios pretty well indeed, one day hopefully we will look forward to crystallizing things on how we go about tackling uncomfortable doctrine that creates ill will and tension within and amongst our society and nations. Carry on the good work.

[brihaspati]

Pratyush ji, "both", but more for 1984.In trying to concentrate all power in individuals, and then pass it on to a dynasty - invites external attention to eliminate the succession and continuity. Two cultural traditions have a tendency to target individuals for assassinations and elimination - both derived from the same theological tradition, but one targets individuals rather than families and the other is more paranoid and tries to eleiminate the entire bloodline.

So the former will eliminate only the ones who seem to concentrate all power in India in a way that goes out of control of their hands (they cannot overdo it fearing that people will rally behind the family), while the latter will try to consistently eliminate all family. If they leave out the females more than the males - then that gives clearer indication as to which of the two is behind it.

But my point was that if the supreme ruler begins to distrust the admin, then he/she will try to hide his/her thoughts and sort of surprise the "system" with fait-accomplis. This is the reason I have elsewhere tried to withhold thought on future designs for J&K etc, as the "supreme" leaders (could be more than one) could panic thinking that our comments could be indirect reflections of thoughts within the system. Then they will try to present us with fait-accomplis. RJB coup has probably adversely impacted the J&K scenario.

Friends,
if you feel that the discussion needs to go into the unravelling of the theology (which I endorse personally) then perhaps a better place for that will be the GDF version of this thread!

To all those who have already posted on this, we may need to think without emotion about this. Cold hard calculations indicate that some degree of rashtryia coercion will be needed to make things "compatible" - which does not have to be overtly violent or physical. The main source of negativity and retrogression are the theologians and social-legal aspects which giev advantages to men and men with a feudal bent of mind (about land and women) - and the institutional framework by which they reproduce and maintain their theological dissemination and leadership. These institutions have to be delegitimized and made defunct, and theologians eliminated and discredited. Details of how and where is subject to the very process of extension of Indian rashtryia control over those populations. But perhaps such details are better suited for analysis in the GDF version?

[ramana]

Darshhan please follow-up in the GDF version. Thanks, ramana

[RajeshA]

Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent: What's in it for Bangladesh and others?

Well we can agree that many Bangladeshis migrate to India, almost always illegally for the sake of work or for more space. So a union with India, would first and foremost give the Bangladeshis new space to expand into for economic benefits.

Now this may not go down very well with the poor in India, who want to have the first shot at some work. So the Government of United India would have to ensure that there is enough growth, job growth and inclusive growth to generate enough work for as many as possible. In fact, India should be taking a page from Bangladesh's Book on Micro-financing, and try to generate more entrepreneurial spirit. If the Bangladeshis come in, we would to treat them as our own as well.

Another thing Bangladesh could be expecting is lots of investment from India, both public and private. It would be in India's interest that as much as possible, Bangladeshis remain in Bangladeshi regions, hence the effort would be to develop Bangladesh's infrastructure as well to support bigger economy, more economic activity.

Not just Indian investments, but knowing that Bangladesh is part of United India, part of Brand India, it would give the outside world far more confidence in the present stability and future evolution of Bangladesh, resulting in far more investments from the richer countries.

There have been some who predict that Bangladesh is losing land to the sea due to rising sea levels caused by global warming. Some say Bangladesh may lose up to 17% of its land by 2050, when the sea levels rise by 1 meter.


Others say, that the silt being carried down the rivers - Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna, is helping in the accretion of new land. So whether it is for building river embankments, dykes, dams, cross dams, etc. India can help Bangladesh in its endeavors to save its land as well as in land reclamation, and developing newly reclaimed land. A useful blog on the issue.

The biggest gain however for Bangladesh would however be that they would be reunited with the rest of their ethnic kin - the West Bengalis in a single country - United India. Any Bangladeshi PM which can deliver this would go down in history as a great Bengali Patriot. True Bangladesh plus West Bengal would not be a separate country as some nationalists would have it, but it would be the next big thing. For Bangladeshis Kolkata would not be a Kandor anymore. The culture and ecosystem of Bengal can be whole again. Bangladesh has been a part of India for millenia and it is now being severed from it by a fence. Surely Bangladeshis would want to be one with the whole again if given the choice.

In the hierarchy of Muslim nations, which is based on martial history, TFTA level and money, Bangladesh is pretty much at the bottom. Even if they all become Jihadis and join Al Qaeda, they will not be moving up substantially. So why try? There is nothing to be achieved down that road. This can change, if they suddenly become part of an upcoming superpower growing at 9% and which would be the biggest Muslim country in the world by far - 306 million. By joining India, the Bangladeshis would have the opportunity to punch far above their weight, especially in the Muslim World, than if they remain independent as Bangladesh.

There would be misgivings about India, but the message should get across, that India has never tried to undermine any of its constituent states, but has always tried to ensure that each can develop to its maximum potential. That is the most fundamental truth about India, and if Bangladesh should join India, it would be no different.

The critical constituency is the Bangladeshi Military. Well the Bangladeshi Military would be merged with the Indian Military. They will get better training, better weaponry and better pay after the merger.

For the others, the arguments in favor would also go under similar lines.

As far as Maldives is concerned, its whole population ~400,000 would have to be found alternative accommodation on the Indian Mainland.

Nepal if it remains a separate country, would become the battlefield of superpowers, and a lot of grass would be trampled underneath. As the Chinese penetrate into Nepal, India would feel threatened, and the free movement and work opportunities that Nepalese avail of right now in India would be a thing of the past, as a big fence may come up between India and Nepal too. This is something, the Nepalese may not like and would be keen to prevent by merging formally with India.

Same is the case with Sri Lankans. They are leaning far too much towards the Chinese already. If India feels threatened by the Chinese presence, outside forces, not just Indians, but Americans also would restart their interference in the island republic by extending support to the Tamil Tigers. Sri Lankans have a very bright future, but only if the ghosts past are not let loose on the Sri Lankans again. By staying outside India, that is not guaranteed.

The Buddhist clergy of Sri Lanka would find temptation in the idea of merging with India, as being the largest Buddhist nation in the Indian Subcontinent, they would get a lot of leeway on the Buddhist places of worship.

Bhutan's security, culture and nascent democracy are much more secure if Bhutan merges with India, because India would become fully committed to protecting the territorial integrity of its northern borders.

[harbans]

Bhutan's security, culture and nascent democracy are much more secure if Bhutan merges with India, because India would become fully committed to protecting the territorial integrity of its northern borders.

Rajesh Ji please stop this! Bhutan is an example of a independent NATION that is doing so well..it need not be dragged into India's problems. Bhutan is a protectorate. I've been to it's Northern borders with Chinese occupied Tibet. You are going very off track and possibly will invite very negative reactions. India is committed to protecting Bhutans Northern Borders without Bhutan integrating to India. I am fine with that. Bhutan is India's BEST friend in the world. DON"T mess with that with half baked theories.