People's Republic of China Nov 22, 2009

[TonyMontana]

In short, something nasty is brewing up across the river and we can all...

Sure. But if you dig a bit further you'll find that these demonstrations are mostly aimed at the local level corruption/wrong doing. In fact, a lot of these demostrations are asking the central government(CCP) for intervention. These are not 100,000 demonstrations that calls for the head of the CCP leaders.

Look, there's a lot of people on the "China will Collapse soon" boat. I'm guessing you're one of them. My advices is don't be to smug about it. If China did collapse, good for India. But if you think it's a sure thing, you might just die an old man, filled with regret.

[shiv]

So what options does that leave China? Of the top of my head, the first thing I thought of is population displacement. If we can't change the demography by moving people in, we can move people out. Maybe China should move tibetan population in Tibet, by reward and/or coersion to surrounding Chinese provinces, where they will be the minority. That way we can still maintain the 90%+ Chinese in Tibet, while remain under the critical population threashold.

The real question to me is what China gains by repopulating Tibet by direct or inverse population exchange. It strikes me that the idea is hardly to depopulate or repopulate. The "Chinese idea" (courtesy the CPC) is to infuse all Chinese with dynamism and a sense of purpose and give all Chinese a "job to do" for the future. Each job that is achieved is utilized to infuse a sense of pride that calls for greater unity and sense of purpose for the "next great leap forward" Going and nearly getting choked in Tibet is part of that plan.The colonization of Tibet is only a symptom of broader dynamic in China.

When Mao started with the seed that gave rise to these grandiose plans to unite and make China great he was realistic in many ways - even if he was unconventional. He did not worry about deaths and scared the crap out of countries who were concerned about thousands or millions of dead or displaced by events and plans. In no way was Mao the first person to do that. He knew history well enough to understand that such upheavals are part and parcel of history. Later reformers after Mao were patriots, like Mao but again did not hesitate to use coercive methods to herd, indoctrinate and set people a target that would be visible to everyone. Setting targets that are visible to everyone is not new to the Chinese. The great wall and thousands of terracotta soldiers are symbols of unified hard work more than an act of social good to improve the life of the ordinary citizen. Like the pyramids of Egypt they protect and perpetuate the memory of the rulers and the time period rather than think about the life of the individual.

What I am trying to say here is that "building a nation" is a balance between keeping everyone happy and keeping everyone united. Happiness is about enhancing differences by getting more good for oneself at the expense of others if necessary. Unity is about suppressing individual differences for the good of the group.

With a huge, diverse and possibly unruly population the CPC has to work very hard to unite and instil a sense of purpose on all Chinese. When an entire country is in a bad shape and everyone is equally screwed up it is easy to unite people and push them towards a common goal that improves things for everyone. But if differences develop between people you get divisive politics where people fight each other to grab that little extra bit of advantage for themselves. With China having improved life vastly for perhaps 700 million or more Chinese, it is getting to a stage when China still has 300 or 500 million Chinese who need to be brought up to the level of others. The differences cause internal disagreements and strife and the way that is stopped in China seems to be by suppressing all politics and forcing people to "work collectively for a better China".

But what work can you give to 500 million people after already employing 700 million? Modernist "Nation building" - is achieved by building dams. cities, infrastructure, railways, power lines, furious mining and the like. This is the route that "advanced nations" took to achieve prosperity. China (led by the CPC) is keeping the Chinese busy be doing this at a blistering pace. To me it seems that the CPC is performing social experiments on Chinese for short term goals knowing that every individual will be dead in less than 75 years. In doing so China is building up a debt - a social and environmental debt. China is building huge new great walls and terracotta soldiers. Nobody has built up such a huge debt before and nobody knows the consequences - least of all the CPC which has to "manage" whatever they face. A social and environmental debt will be paid by the Chinese people. If there is strife while they repay the debt, their leadership, the CPC, may be tempted to "redirect the energies" of the Chinese people by blaming external agents as the cause of their problems. This is a well known phenomenon with all leadership faced with internal strife. So China is a fascinating country to watch. With India having a billion people and "development goals" similar to China as well as being a huge country, Indians can afford to be more sanguine about what is happening in China than all those little countries that border China who must view China with concern.

[naren]

In short, something nasty is brewing up across the river and we can all...

Sure. But if you dig a bit further you'll find that these demonstrations are mostly aimed at the local level corruption/wrong doing. In fact, a lot of these demostrations are asking the central government(CCP) for intervention. These are not 100,000 demonstrations that calls for the head of the CCP leaders.

Another way to look at it is "useful idiots, ripe for sacrifice in the next revolucion". There are no factions within CCP ? Yeah, right... Here's a hint, Google for "wen jiabao democracy". Err, sorry, thats only for those who dont live inside the great firewall.

Look, there's a lot of people on the "China will Collapse soon" boat. I'm guessing you're one of them. My advices is don't be to smug about it. If China did collapse, good for India. But if you think it's a sure thing, you might just die an old man, filled with regret.

Another way to look at it - whoever expresses an opinion which contradicts yours, even if backed up by FACTS, you will pigeonhole them into a "boat" ? Doesn't that imply that you yourself are in a "boat", an opposite one but "boat" nevertheless ?

As an Indian, we need to be prepared for any possible outcome - isn't that the very raisin dieter that posters in this forum patiently listen & respond to your views ? I have no personal stake in anything that happens in China. So I'd happily, as you guys say, "watch the fires burn across the river".

[shiv]

Sure. But if you dig a bit further you'll find that these demonstrations are mostly aimed at the local level corruption/wrong doing. In fact, a lot of these demostrations are asking the central government(CCP) for intervention. These are not 100,000 demonstrations that calls for the head of the CCP leaders.

These are happy rationalizations that do not stand up to serious scrutiny.

100,000 small demonstrations against 100,000 local problems can be dealt with more leniently than even one small demonstration against the central leadership. And the same central leadership can "promote and publicise" 100,000 small demonstrations calling to them for help as an indicator of their liberalism in allowing people voices to be heard. These are all old and laughable tricks used by all powerful oligarchies. All religions did this. Early Islamic rulers said "Do not oppose Allah and we will help". In China the rule is "Do not oppose the CPC"

The fact is that if you take one million people and allow them to state all their grievances, everything (bar nothing) will be criticised - from local corruption to central government. If you look at all the grievances and find that only local issues are being protested and there are very few criticisms of the Sultan or Raja it is a ludicrously clear illustration of the fact that there is some artificial suppression of criticism of the central leadership and that the Sultan/Raja/CPC does not want any criticism.

Anyone who does not see this is either very naive or is in deliberate denial for an ulterior purpose.

[abhishek_sharma]

Chinese Supercomputer Wrests Title From U.S.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/techn ... mpute.html

[SSridhar]

ADAG awards USD 8.29 B contract to Shanghai Electric

Shanghai Electric Group has won a $8.29 billion deal to supply power equipment to Indian billionaire Anil Ambani's Reliance Group, prompting its shares to jump to their highest in 2-½ years.

Shanghai Electric, the largest power producer in Shanghai, said in a statement late on Wednesday that it will sell 36 coal-fired thermal power generation units, spare parts and related services to Reliance ADA Group over a 10-year period.

Shanghai Electric and Reliance Infrastructure already have a close working relationship, with the Chinese firm having supplied equipment to other power projects.

The two also set up a $3 billion joint venture in 2008 to manufacture turbines and generators in India.

[SSridhar]

Rare Earths is not a bargaining tool: China

[Shankas]

Rare Earths is not a bargaining tool: China

That ship with proverbial monkeys has sailed of into the sunset.
Its a new dawn and with it comes new realization

[TonyMontana]

Anyone who does not see this is either very naive or is in deliberate denial for an ulterior purpose.

No one said that is not the case. All I was trying to do was point out to some posters that there's no 100,000 visible protests against the central leadership. Which implies, as you said, that the artificial suppression of criticism is working. The CCP is firmly in control. As do all growing dynasties in Chinese history. That there isn't any peasant revolts brewing, right or wrong, as some posters so eagerly awaits.

[Sidhant]

^^ Montana Ji, if the Chinese population really wants stability and unity then why so many protests, why is government so afraid of freedom of speech and free information, why does the CPC needs to use force to suppress them. Its the higher echelons of the society which want peace and stability so that they can continue reaping the fruits of prosperity at the cost of hard working Chinese peasants and countless Chinese workers sweating in shoddy work conditions.

[TonyMontana]

^^ Montana Ji, if the Chinese population really wants stability and unity then why so many protests, why is government so afraid of freedom of speech and free information, why does the CPC needs to use force to suppress them. Its the higher echelons of the society which want peace and stability so that they can continue reaping the fruits of prosperity at the cost of hard working Chinese peasants and countless Chinese workers sweating in shoddy work conditions.

Are you telling me that the Chinese want instability? Are you telling me that there are no grievances in China beside ones aimed at the CCP?

Look, let me tell you this, the young generation of Chinese, which I belong to, thinks the CCP is a bunch old geezers that's frankly, embarassing. But! That being said. The alternative to the CCP is too horrible to comprehend. So we chose the less of the two evils.

[RajeshA]

The alternative to the CCP is too horrible to comprehend. So we chose the less of the two evils.

Now that's funny!

First, don't let any alternative to CCP build up. So even as no alternative exists, because they never let them exist, that alternative is not simply incomprehensible due to the lack of Chinese vision and imagination, the object of that incomprehensibility, which does not exist, has to be further qualified by the term "horrible"!

So what is the other evil, which nobody wants?

[TonyMontana]

Now that's funny!

First, don't let any alternative to CCP build up. So even as no alternative exists, because they never let them exist, that alternative is not simply incomprehensible due to the lack of Chinese vision and imagination, the object of that incomprehensibility, which does not exist, has to be further qualified by the term "horrible"!

So what is the other evil, which nobody wants?

The option facing the Chinese is not CCP or Someone-Else. The options are CCP or Instability. As I mentioned before, if I can wave a magic wand and "poof!" goes the CCP, I'll do it in a heart beat. If you can game up a real world scenario where China could realistically get rid of the CCP without massive amount of blood shed, I'll sign up to the movement today. Cause we're all out of ideas.

[RajeshA]

Now that's funny!

First, don't let any alternative to CCP build up. So even as no alternative exists, because they never let them exist, that alternative is not simply incomprehensible due to the lack of Chinese vision and imagination, the object of that incomprehensibility, which does not exist, has to be further qualified by the term "horrible"!

So what is the other evil, which nobody wants?

The option facing the Chinese is not CCP or Someone-Else. The options are CCP or Instability. As I mentioned before, if I can wave a magic wand and "poof!" goes the CCP, I'll do it in a heart beat. If you can game up a real world scenario where China could realistically get rid of the CCP without massive amount of blood shed, I'll sign up to the movement today. Cause we're all out of ideas.

I could jot down a few, but if you are all prisoners of CCP and love your prisons, nothing I say would stay long in the air, before it is shot down.

But here is an idea. What you need is a bigger and better Bhagat Singh with Chinese efficiency!

[TonyMontana]

I could jot down a few, but if you are all prisoners of CCP and love your prisons, nothing I say would stay long in the air, before it is shot down.

But here is an idea. What you need is a bigger and better Bhagat Singh with Chinese efficiency!

Any interesting question is: Why does Indians want anyone else besides the CCP? Wasn't the China in the 70's under hardline Communist rule better for Indian interests then the current capital driven CCP? Why does India want a China with a government better then the CCP? The New China and India would still have the same competition points and issues. Democracy doesn't automatically turn people into liberals peaceniks.

[RajeshA]

I could jot down a few, but if you are all prisoners of CCP and love your prisons, nothing I say would stay long in the air, before it is shot down.

But here is an idea. What you need is a bigger and better Bhagat Singh with Chinese efficiency!

Any interesting question is: Why does Indians want anyone else besides the CCP? Wasn't the China in the 70's under hardline Communist rule better for Indian interests then the current capital driven CCP? Why does India want a China with a government better then the CCP? The New China and India would still have the same competition points and issues. Democracy doesn't automatically turn people into liberals peaceniks.

If the remark was directed at me, then I am the wrong guy. In another thread I just wrote

I also don't think, we should be in the business of trying to convert others to liberal democracy. That's their problem, their issue. This is also the GoI policy. Be it CPC or KMT, they both would have gone about in a similar way if the national interests were involved. A Mao or Deng could have belonged to either party.

I'm only interested to know whether China is a threat or not to India. As long as it sits in Tibet, China is a threat and an enemy. If it retreats, we can be friends. For me, it doesn't matter which acronym rules China.

If CCP doesn't give the Chinese any freedom, why should it bother me?! As for the suggestion, you asked for it, so I gave.

[Sidhant]

Are you telling me that the Chinese want instability? Are you telling me that there are no grievances in China beside ones aimed at the CCP?

Look, let me tell you this, the young generation of Chinese, which I belong to, thinks the CCP is a bunch old geezers that's frankly, embarassing. But! That being said. The alternative to the CCP is too horrible to comprehend. So we chose the less of the two evils.

Tony, what I am trying to ask is if most of the people want unity and stability and all is so hunky dory within Chinese population then why does the government need to exert force on its own people. Why this brutal coercion, why is CPC so insecure and panicky? One needs to exert force when there is an opposing force. If Chinese people are so unity and stability loving then Free Speech and Freedom of information should not change things right, then what is CPC's insecurity.

I see only three reasons for this behavior of CPC,
1. Either its hiding something from its own population under the cloak of preserving unity and stability.
2. CPC does not trusts the intelligence of average Chinese and feels the free information and freedom of speech will overwhelm him/her and thus keeps all the decision making to them, dont want average Chinese to articulate his/her thoughts and wanna rule like a no questions asked establishment. The underlying CPC assumption I see in this is that Chinese population is not capable of making itself reach its pinnacle. This lack of confidence does not do justice to great Chinese Civilizational Wisdom.
3. CPC is benevolent and rightly coercing people as the Chinese people are not capable to keeping peace and stability on their own, which to me seems shocking in light of your comments like all Chinese love each other and are very peace and stability loving.

Can you please provide your version of why CPC needs to suppress its own people.

[TonyMontana]

I also don't think, we should be in the business of trying to convert others to liberal democracy. That's their problem, their issue. This is also the GoI policy. Be it CPC or KMT, they both would have gone about in a similar way if the national interests were involved. A Mao or Deng could have belonged to either party.

I'm only interested to know whether China is a threat or not to India. As long as it sits in Tibet, China is a threat and an enemy. If it retreats, we can be friends. For me, it doesn't matter which acronym rules China.

We have so much in common. We could've been good friends. But alas. We are the same side on two different coins. Maybe this is what the German and French soldiers felt in WW1. It took the Europeans two costly wars to learn to live with each other. I hope India and China don't make the same mistake.

[TonyMontana]

I see only three reasons for this behavior of CPC,
1. Either its hiding something from its own population under the cloak of preserving unity and stability.

I don't know what they're hiding. So we're both guessing at this point.

2. CPC does not trusts the intelligence of average Chinese and feels the free information and freedom of speech will overwhelm him/her and thus keeps all the decision making to them, dont want average Chinese to articulate his/her thoughts and wanna rule like a no questions asked establishment. The underlying CPC assumption I see in this is that Chinese population is not capable of making itself reach its pinnacle. This lack of confidence does not do justice to great Chinese Civilizational Wisdom.

This is the great chinese civilisational wisdom.

3. CPC is benevolent and rightly coercing people as the Chinese people are not capable to keeping peace and stability on their own, which to me seems shocking in light of your comments like all Chinese love each other and are very peace and stability loving.

LOL. When did I say that? Let me tell you this. Chinese hate eachother more then anyone else. Maybe hate is too big of a world. But the North/South, East/West divide is thousands of years old. It is a testiment to the system that China as a entity remained for so long.

[Sidhant]

The option facing the Chinese is not CCP or Someone-Else. The options are CCP or Instability. As I mentioned before, if I can wave a magic wand and "poof!" goes the CCP, I'll do it in a heart beat. If you can game up a real world scenario where China could realistically get rid of the CCP without massive amount of blood shed, I'll sign up to the movement today. Cause we're all out of ideas.

There are two reasons for lack of ideas
1. The rich and powerful have become too lazy or complacent to shoulder the burden of making that change happen. Or may be they are also hand in glove with CPC.
2. Lack of freedom of thoughts and free speech does not allows a significant enough group to get connected and coordinated to make any significant difference.

And the lack of will/ability to act is being hidden behind the bogeyman of bloody revolution.

Self Edited to correct some grammatical mistakes

[JwalaMukhi]

The biggest issue with china's thought processes and actions as proposed and propagated by TonyMontana, is that the underpinnings are extremely weak. Although, it is very similar to islamists agenda of global supremacy, the CCP agenda lacks conviction. So it is in many ways inferior to islamism.
Let me explain: atleast, the islamists believe in converting other peoples to islamism but do not perceive that can only be achieved if the population is of arab in ethnicity. The chinese on the other hand, have no confidence in anyone other than Han.
The snake oil that chinese seem to sell, is possible only if the entire population where they are selling is replaced with Han ethnicity. It is laughable, because the wares that the chinese are pedalling is saleable onlee if there are Han buyers.
Either way it depicts very bad on the situation.
1) The wares do not have any quality that it can stand independently.
2) Worse, it depicts Hans as a very servile race, who are amenable to coercion and buy the wares which no one else touches with a barge pole.

[TonyMontana]

There are two reasons for of ideas
1. The rich and powerful have become too lazy or complacent to shoulder the burden of making that change happen. Or may be they are also hand in glove with CPC.
2. Lack of freedom of thoughts and free speech does not allows a significant enough group to get connected and coordinated to make any significant difference.

And the lack of will/ability to act is being hidden behind the bogeyman of bloody revolution.

Act what? Peaceful overthrow of the CCP? If that's out of the question, then the obvious answer is the forceful overthrow of the CCP. Doesn't that mean bloody revolution? Doesn't that mean it's not a bogeyman? But a realistic outcome?

2) Worse, it depicts Hans as a very servile race, who are amenable to coercion and buy the wares which no one else touches with a barge pole.

LOL. Where you see servile-ness. I see co-operation. And Chinese history is my citation.
But these are all valid opinions to hold.

[Sidhant]

LOL. Where you see servile-ness. I see co-operation.

Cooperation through forceful coercion , humm interesting concept, its like a mafia putting a gun on my head and requesting me to cooperate. And all this time I used to think cooperation used to be voluntary for the sake of mutual benefit. Tony you seem to have changed the definition of cooperation.

[TonyMontana]

LOL. Where you see servile-ness. I see co-operation.

Cooperation through forceful coercion , humm interesting concept, its like a mafia putting a gun on my head and requesting me to cooperate. And all this time I used to think cooperation used to be voluntary for the sake of mutual benefit. Tony you seem to have changed the definition of cooperation.

Think of it like the Road Rules. Why is the speed limit 50km/h? I have a safe car, always drive sober, and good reaction speeds. I can cruise at 65km/h safely. Why can't we all just agree together and co-operate and there will be no need for the speed limit. Isn't the fine for speeding a form of coersion?

The rules are there for the people that can't co-operate.

[DavidD]

Are you telling me that the Chinese want instability? Are you telling me that there are no grievances in China beside ones aimed at the CCP?

Look, let me tell you this, the young generation of Chinese, which I belong to, thinks the CCP is a bunch old geezers that's frankly, embarassing. But! That being said. The alternative to the CCP is too horrible to comprehend. So we chose the less of the two evils.

Tony, what I am trying to ask is if most of the people want unity and stability and all is so hunky dory within Chinese population then why does the government need to exert force on its own people. Why this brutal coercion, why is CPC so insecure and panicky? One needs to exert force when there is an opposing force. If Chinese people are so unity and stability loving then Free Speech and Freedom of information should not change things right, then what is CPC's insecurity.

I see only three reasons for this behavior of CPC,
1. Either its hiding something from its own population under the cloak of preserving unity and stability.
2. CPC does not trusts the intelligence of average Chinese and feels the free information and freedom of speech will overwhelm him/her and thus keeps all the decision making to them, dont want average Chinese to articulate his/her thoughts and wanna rule like a no questions asked establishment. The underlying CPC assumption I see in this is that Chinese population is not capable of making itself reach its pinnacle. This lack of confidence does not do justice to great Chinese Civilizational Wisdom.
3. CPC is benevolent and rightly coercing people as the Chinese people are not capable to keeping peace and stability on their own, which to me seems shocking in light of your comments like all Chinese love each other and are very peace and stability loving.

Can you please provide your version of why CPC needs to suppress its own people.

IMO, the 2nd of your 3 possibilities is the most likely. The average person, not just the average Chinese, is easily overwhelmed by the vast amount of free information available, often incapable of much independent thought, and therefore easily manipulated. So the choice is whether you want the press and their corporate sponsors to control the people, or if you want the political elite to control the people. Right now in China, the political elite controls the people, so it's natural that they would want this to continue.

Then again, maybe I'm just a cynic

[Rahul M]

LOL. Where you see servile-ness. I see co-operation.

[shiv]

The alternative to the CCP is too horrible to comprehend. So we chose the less of the two evils.

In fact this is the same excuse used by the Pakistan army to keep Pakistan together. All kings in the past used to say "Without me this country is toast"

I find the use of the term "We chose" interesting. The only way choices can be determined accurately is by some form of election or referendum conducted by a secret ballot where no one is afraid to vote. The single most important pre requisite for that is a government that does not say "It either us or chaos - apres moi le deluge"

There are only two forms of government: autocracy and democracy.

The government of China is an autocracy. The Chinese people are allowed to support their government. They are not allowed to oppose it. All this would have been of no concern to me if the Chinese government was not treading on the rights of people in my democratic country. For that reason - while I have no specific dislike of the Chinese people - I believe the Chinese government is a hazard to the world.

That government needs to correct its course or it is definitely going to get its people into a war. It's only a matter of time. Every country around China is preparing for war with China. I am sure the Chinese government actually wants that. Some wars will be with weak foes. Other wars will be with powerful foes.

[shiv]

LOL. Where you see servile-ness. I see co-operation.

Rahul - piskologically speaking this cartoon is not funny in a "ha ha ha ROTFL" way. It is funny in an ironic and sarcastic sense. But a real bully or a spoiled child is likely to find it funny in a "ha ha ha ROTFL" way because such a person has been brought up to believe that such behavior is correct. "I am bigger than you. I am tougher than you. So I will grab what I want and you can stuff it"

[Pulikeshi]

^ Shiv don't want to speak for Rahul but it is in a ironic, sarcastic way!
Can't argue with Calvin's reality (that his world has bullies)!
I need to go find my old collection...

[TonyMontana]

Believe it or not this carton is exactly my opinion. I, (chinese people) is Calvin to the dot. What's Calvin suppose to do? We all hate the CCP here, but if you can figure out a way for Calvin to get his toy back without getting stabbed, I'm all ears.

[shiv]

Believe it or not this carton is exactly my opinion. I, (chinese people) is Calvin to the dot. What's Calvin suppose to do? We all hate the CCP here, but if you can figure out a way for Calvin to get his toy back without getting stabbed, I'm all ears.

Rahul - piskologically speaking this cartoon is not funny in a "ha ha ha ROTFL" way. It is funny in an ironic and sarcastic sense. But a real bully or a spoiled child is likely to find it funny in a "ha ha ha ROTFL" way because such a person has been brought up to believe that such behavior is correct. "I am bigger than you. I am tougher than you. So I will grab what I want and you can stuff it"

Touche...

<takes a bow in appreciation of the applause>

Tony any Chinese who opposes the CPC can't do much. As long as the CPC sticks to screwing the Chinese nobody will give a damn. It's when the CPC start stepping on others toes that everyone will gun for them

This is exactly the story of that other oligarchy, the Pakistan army.

[TonyMontana]

Tony any Chinese who opposes the CPC can't do much. As long as the CPC sticks to screwing the Chinese nobody will give a damn. It's when the CPC start stepping on others toes that everyone will gun for them

This is exactly the story of that other oligarchy, the Pakistan army.

Do you want to know the real tragedy? I, as a Chinese, must defend against any threat against China. And I dare say that's the view of most Chinese. India's rise and/or her reactions to the CCP's action are contrary to Chinese interests. So it is my duty to work against India. Like the earlier example of German/French soldiers in the trenchs. We could've been the bestest friends. But alas, we stare at each other across no man's land. And when the order comes, we have to do our best to try to stick a bayonet in your gut. As you will to us. So where does that leave us? A vicious cycle of young men dying for the mistake of old men.

But that's the human story isn't it?

[shiv]

Do you want to know the real tragedy? I, as a Chinese, must defend against any threat against China. And I dare say that's the view of most Chinese. India's rise and/or her reactions to the CCP's action are contrary to Chinese interests. So it is my duty to work against India. Like the earlier example of German/French soldiers in the trenchs. We could've been the bestest friends. But alas, we stare at each other across no man's land. And when the order comes, we have to do our best to try to stick a bayonet in your gut. As you will to us. So where does that leave us? A vicious cycle of young men dying for the mistake of old men.

But that's the human story isn't it?

In fact wars are technically between leaders of nations, but the outcome of wars are dependent on the extent to which either leader/government can depend on his generals and soldiers to consider it their "duty" to fight a war.

This is where the US got it wrong in Vietnam and is still struggling in Iraq and Afghanistan. For the Vietnamese, Iraqi and Afghan people it was a more compelling duty to fight the Americans despite losses, poverty and destruction of the economy. For the US destruction of the economy acts as a brake to warfighting.

This is what prompted me to start the thread on "War for geopolitical gains". Powerful nations (Pakistan is also powerful) sometimes try to wage short sharp wars for quick gains, gambling that their economy will not be affected greatly while the military victory will have lasting benefit. Just like the US in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan tried this with India several times and failed and that failure ultimately reflected in the economy of Pakistan. China did it to India and succeeded at a time when China was still in turmoil but under a powerful leader.

The problem about war is that if calculations go awry the economy starts getting affected. And when the economy gets affected the people get affected. That is the real test of leadership. If the war can be kept going by inspiring the people that this is a just war that requires every citizen to do his duty. This puts the leadership under dual pressure, with the war on one side and the domestic fallout of the war at home. As long as the entire population is convinced that a just war is being fought the war can go on. But if the population are unconvinced about the need for war, it can go the wrong way for the leadership.

That means that no national leadership should start war lightly. In terms of India and China it means that China must assuredly punish India if India starts a war and India must assuredly punish China if China starts war. The leadership of each nation, who are a the position to start wars even for small gains should understand in no uncertain terms that war will mean punishment of the nation and economy causing the leadership real stress.

Peace can be maintained if this understanding is reached on both sides. But if one nation starts acting like it is ready to start war it can mean one of several things:
1) The national leadership is posturing because the leadership sees a threat from the other side.
2) The leadership of one side believes an adversary is weak and can be taken advantage of militarily.
3) The leadership of one nation believes that it can browbeat and intimidate the other nation's leadership.

In all cases the response is a credible military build up. So there will be peace between India and China as long as each side's appreciates the other's ability to do damage. In the long term history will continue. There will be great relations between India and China. As long as the political leadership to not "misunderstimate" the other side's ability to make trouble.

[Sidhant]

Do you want to know the real tragedy? I, as a Chinese, must defend against any threat against China. And I dare say that's the view of most Chinese. India's rise and/or her reactions to the CCP's action are contrary to Chinese interests. So it is my duty to work against India. Like the earlier example of German/French soldiers in the trenchs. We could've been the bestest friends. But alas, we stare at each other across no man's land. And when the order comes, we have to do our best to try to stick a bayonet in your gut. As you will to us. So where does that leave us? A vicious cycle of young men dying for the mistake of old men.

But that's the human story isn't it?

Hey Tony, I really appreciate your patriotism and feelings in this case. Agree in toto with you on this. Hats off to your love for your motherland, one thing I don't understand is that why are Chinese so Loyal to CPC. My question arises from the current happening, the way CPC is going ballistic with so many nations it is making some very powerful foes. I am sure every rational Chinese would agree that not all, but quite a few recent decisions by CPC have not been good for the your motherland at least in long term. I would like to get an insight on, god forbid but if CPC makes wrong decision/s and put your motherland in harms way for its own H&D, would the Chinese people fight the world (you may or may not win the war but your motherland would be definitely seriously devastated) or would they fight the CPC.

Let me give you a scenario, since Chinese Account Books are really closed affair, so just for the time being lets pretend that the Chinese economy is not actually in good shape and CPC is cooking the Account Books (I know u wont agree to it, but since the process is not transparent, none of us knows), some day or other this will show up. Unrest will increase, more and more will become restive, and as every autocratic govt does, CPC might try to divert the attention by opening multiple fronts with multiple countries. What will be the reaction of a rational Chinese, who understands the CPC game plan, will he/she go and fight or will he/she try to get the CPC down and put an end to this anarchy?

[Pratyush]

PM meets Wen; will he raise stapled visas issue?

Yesterdays headline was World has enough space for growth ambitions of India, China: PM


The headline says it all.

When the opposite party is not interested in having just relationship with you, then expressing this fond hope only serves to show your weakness. The only way to deal with the PRC at the moment is to impose full scale trade embargo on it. Just ban all trade.

That nation is questioning Indias teratorial integrety and yet Indian business are signing mega deals with them. That must end. The PRC must be made to feel economic pain. That may be one of the few ways of altering the behaviour of that nation.

[Dhiman]

Think of it like the Road Rules. Why is the speed limit 50km/h? I have a safe car, always drive sober, and good reaction speeds. I can cruise at 65km/h safely. Why can't we all just agree together and co-operate and there will be no need for the speed limit. Isn't the fine for speeding a form of coersion?

The rules are there for the people that can't co-operate.

Incorrect, rules are their because people cooperatively decided through their government that rules are benefitial. So your brainwashing aside, there are many many many instances of rules being removed, changed, or added to reflect the will of the people who are subject to those rules.

[TonyMontana]

Hey Tony, I really appreciate your patriotism and feelings in this case. Agree in toto with you on this. Hats off to your love for your motherland, one thing I don't understand is that why are Chinese so Loyal to CPC.

We Chinese are like electrons. We like to follow the path of least resistence. If overthrowing the CCP means pain scale 7 and living under oppression mean pain scale 5. We don't do it. If CCP starts a war and living with CCP means pain scale 9 and overthrowing CCP means pain scale 7. We'll do it. Right now it's pain scale 3. And the CCP is trying to keep it under pain scale 5. So we do our part.

Let me give you a scenario, since Chinese Account Books are really closed affair, so just for the time being lets pretend that the Chinese economy is not actually in good shape and CPC is cooking the Account Books (I know u wont agree to it, but since the process is not transparent, none of us knows), some day or other this will show up. Unrest will increase, more and more will become restive, and as every autocratic govt does, CPC might try to divert the attention by opening multiple fronts with multiple countries. What will be the reaction of a rational Chinese, who understands the CPC game plan, will he/she go and fight or will he/she try to get the CPC down and put an end to this anarchy?

See my answer above. What you are suggesting is speculation in this case. What if the CCP managed a "soft landing" and set the pain level at only 6? This is anyone's guess at the moment. When the pain scale for the Chinese gets to 9, things will be different.

[Leonard]

TonyMontana wrote:
Do you want to know the real tragedy? I, as a Chinese, must defend against any threat against China. And I dare say that's the view of most Chinese. India's rise and/or her reactions to the CCP's action are contrary to Chinese interests. So it is my duty to work against India. Like the earlier example of German/French soldiers in the trenchs. We could've been the bestest friends. But alas, we stare at each other across no man's land. And when the order comes, we have to do our best to try to stick a bayonet in your gut. As you will to us. So where does that leave us? A vicious cycle of young men dying for the mistake of old men.

But that's the human story isn't it?

Tony,

I assuming that you have read about the "Holocaust" -- in WW2 by the Nazis ..

Did you ever read about War Crimes Tribunal, and what the justification of German Soldiers and Officers for the "mass extermination" of 7 Million Jews, Gypsies, and other Minorities ?

Their answer ---> We were just Following Orders !!!

It is simply a matter of Ethics.

Tomorrow, PLA with its "mind boggling" posturing on "Territorial Issues" starts a Nuclear Conflict --- Are you going to just state "I, as a Chinese, must defend against any threat against China. " or take a stand ?


It is NOT about "patriotism" --- In 1775 --> Samuel Johnson call's " False patriotism as the last refuge of a scoundrel"

Boswell tells us that Samuel Johnson made this famous pronouncement that patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel on the evening of April 7, 1775. He doesn't provide any context for how the remark arose, so we don't really know for sure what was on Johnson's mind at the time.

However, Boswell assures us that Johnson was not indicting patriotism in general, only false patriotism.

He further quotes ...

It is the quality of patriotism to be jealous and watchful, to observe all secret machinations, and to see publick dangers at a distance. The true lover of his country is ready to communicate his fears, and to sound the alarm, whenever he perceives the approach of mischief. But he sounds no alarm, when there is no enemy; he never terrifies his countrymen till he is terrified himself. The patriotism, therefore, may be justly doubted of him, who professes to be disturbed by incredibilities; who tells, that the last peace was obtained by bribing the princess of Wales; that the king is grasping at arbitrary power; and, that because the French, in the new conquests, enjoy their own laws, there is a design at court of abolishing, in England, the trial by juries.

http://www.samueljohnson.com/thepatriot.html

[nvishal]

I would support the CCP too if i were a chinese. It has provided normalcy. It has been able to spread prosperity to the masses way better than india. And it the only country which has been able to keep the jihadi's down.

But it is also true that the china experiment is a great gamble and it will not hold true in the long run. There are so many flaws that require constant window dressing. It will eventually make an epic fall. I just wonder if it will be more grand than pakistan.

[Lalmohan]

the problem is that most civilisations think of others as being hostile. the indian one is uniquely naive in thinking that the world is a nice place and we must live and let live
this confuses everyone else