People's Republic of China Nov 22, 2009

[Sidhant]

Tony and David, Pls see the following article: China, US & Taiwan

A quote from this article:

Zhu rose to prominence in China in 2005 after he warned that if the United States came to Taiwan's defense in a war with China, Beijing would abandon its "no first use" doctrine on nuclear weapons and attack the United States.

Would like an answer from both of you on this..what are your views regarding Zhu's comment? Is China the most suicidal nation of all - when neither India nor Pakistan nor any other nuclear power is talking about escalating a conventional war to nuclear, China is. Do you agree with Zhu's stance?

Arjun, they dont do what they preach. They want the option of unpredictability(read irrationality), back stabbing, blatant lying and nuclear proliferation to themselves. Rest of the world should be perfectly rational, honest and should not proliferate nuclear weapons to other countries (read Taiwan and Vietnam).

They act suicidal to deter other countries but dont wanna get compared to Pakis as their suicidal tendency has a greater Han wisdom which other countries cant comprehend. Currently China is openly threatening so many powerful nations but still feel that the same nations will come to its rescue in case of nuke exchange.

India will still remain a power in subcontinent even after a nuke exchange as the second biggest power in the subcontinent (pakistan) would have been wiped out from the face of earth, but what will happen to Chinese pipe dreams of Global dominance. Now that China has shown its true colors to the whole world, it cannot afford to have even a small nuke exchange coz once China gets weak the world powers will not let China become the overgrown devil again.

[shiv]

I do not recall saying ANYWHERE that India has no leverage with China. That is a figment of your imagination.

You said the following...

How long will it be before Indians understand that "getting China to understand our core concerns" is not going to happen and there is no sense in banging our heads against that wall repeatedly.

That is equivalent to saying India has no leverage with China.

That is how you understand it. But that is not what it means.

My view on the contentious issues that India and China have are as follows. "Getting China to understand India's core concerns" as you suggested is, in my view, (and with respect) a completely useless exercise. I do not care what the Chinese understand or do not understand as long as our work is done.

What is "our work" that needs to "be done"

1) Total neutralization of Pakistan as a force that creates terrorism in India or as a force that seeks to wage war against India followed by the integration of the Pakistani people into the South Asian economy. China does not want to see this happen. There is nothing for China to "understand" here. We have to make it happen whether China understands anything or not. Their egregious role has to be rendered ineffective. Much of it (like nukes to Pakistan) cannot be reversed. This is not going to happen by negotiation with China.

2) Complete security in India's Northern borders with no opportunity for any Chinese regime, rational or irrational to make further inroads into Indian territory without the risk of severe punishment, humiliation and defeat. There is nothing for China to understand here other than the knowledge that military misadventure will lead to pain.

3) Political stability in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka with a clear threat that working against Indian interests will not be taken lightly. The "understanding" has to be with these 3 nations. What China understands or does not understand is not relevant as long as these 3 countries understand what is at stake. Clever negotiation with China is totally pointless in this regard.

4) Tibetans who sought refuge in India will continue to be given refuge in India until such time that the regime in China allows Tibetans to return to their homeland with a political dispensation of their choice. China already understands this perfectly well and does not like it one bit.

5) India will do what it takes to grow and grab what it needs, and will only stop China where China is treading on Indian toes. China is treading on Indian toes only in terms of territory in the North and with regard to Pakistan. China is fully aware of all the issues and no amount of negotiation is going to change anything.

By talking of babus and "5 years" and "making China understand" I think a totally meaningless extra dimension is being added to issues that are already well known and are being addressed continuously for 5 decades. This "making China understand Indian core concerns" sounds like a variation of begging and pleading to me. It does not have the chance of fart in a hurricane of having the slightest effect of achieving anything.

The most useless suggestions that I hear are suggestions for "leverage with China" where leverage is unnecessary or pointless. India has leverage where it is needed. And no amount of leverage will work if applied where it is pointless.

[Arjun]

My view on the contentious issues that India and China have are as follows.

Agree with all of the points that you listed out. These are necessary, but here is where I differ - I don't think the measures are sufficient. What you are essentially saying is IF China can create probems for India using Pakistan, or for that matter Lanka / Nepal/ Bangladesh or attacks India directly - the problem needs to be addressed from the Pakistan / Lanka / Nepal / BD end, and by shoring up India's defences.

This is a defensive strategy - and having evaluated a number of equivalent scenarios in the corporate world, solely defensive strategies are almost always bound to fail. If China is using country X, you neutralize this not only from the Country X end, but also from addressing the China end which means India needs to constantly think about what is the degree of leverage it has with China and how it can be maximized.

If Pakistan is neutered tomorrow, China will use another source of leverage against India (because China for its part is thinking this through in the language of leverage and balance of power)...India cannot be constantly trying to shore up its defences, it needs to figure out a way such that China is dissuaded from playing games, and that can only come from greater bargaining power / leverage built up by India.

This "making China understand Indian core concerns" sounds like a variation of begging and pleading to me. It does not have the chance of fart in a hurricane of having the slightest effect of achieving anything.

'Making China understand core concerns' is the phrase I am using for China taking the steps which are in synch with our core concerns - whether it be because it understands our concerns and has suddenly decided to become more 'dharmic', OR (more likely) because it sees India as having some source of leverage and therefore as a matter of negotiation agrees to taking necessary corrective steps.

It seems to me that your grounding as a professional private practitioner, is blinding you to the fact that negotiation is the basis on which the entire world revolves - whether it be in the corporate world, or inter-country or inter-whatever. You don't get what you deserve - you get what you negotiate....If you think negotiation is equivalent to begging then all I can say is you have the world all topsy-turvy. In order to negotiate, you need leverage and bargaining power - therefore the entire machinery needs to be geared towards building the required leverage.

[Pranav]

Wlin , Recently when Indian govt. banned chinese telecom vendors like Huawei and ZTE from supplying equipment to Indian telecom operators , these companies were literally begging to stay in the competition and to lift the ban.Even the Chinese govt. started requesting Indian govt to lift the ban.

They are probably interested in monitoring Indian internet traffic, and perhaps installing worms on Indian systems.

Our Babus have worked out an arrangement whereby Huawei will reveal its source code.

Unfortunately, the Babus seem to be unaware that the standard practice these days is to put the Trojans in the hardware itself. Unless you control the semiconductor fabrication process, you have no right to expect any security.

[rsingh]

Guys who are against word "get out"......are doing big mistake because that is how you convey right message. Chinese understand this perfectly alas nobody in GOI has ball to tell them this.

Really? You're not even convincing die hard anti CCP folks like me with your one liners "get out". This forum i know has enough intellectual depth to slam PRC arguments on as Rudradev Ji mentioned a level headed way than some who'd like an end by saying "get out", "**** off", "liar", or stick to bizarre 'one liner' type arguments.

If you know the first arguments of "get out" were given by the ultimate Psec: JLN. He lost all. He could'nt relate to Tibet or even to Aksai Chin or non ex. His arguments were weak or non existent. He told his General to "Get out" because he did'nt wan't to hear a defense plan, he did'nt want to hear. His Macaulyte education prevented him from reading Chinese traveler Hseun Tsangs own account of Tibet: " I met 5000 people in the region of present day Lop Nor..all practising the religion of India".

"Get Out" does not work if you are to educate and answer basic queries. If you have to avoid them without proper answers in that manner, well it shows an absolutely fundamental weakness. And IMHO i too did'nt see anything here where Wlin has trolled. He has only put his queries from a PRC POV or in instances a business POV.

Mr Harbans my aim is NOT to convince die hard anti CCP guys like you. What I am saying is "an average Chini is NOT the right guy where logic,reasoning and facts do count". These guys are ultra nationalists and they laugh at your intellectual proves and infinite passion. One can not engage in intellectual debate. They never talk like equals. It is a "crush or get crushed society". Let me to give you an example
- Noble prize saga...........now China wants ambassadors from other countries to not to attend Prize giving ceremony in Dec.
This gives you the extent to which Chini can go to legitimize her concern over noble peace prize.
Secondly so called "one-liners" are not that bad. You do not need to write one and half page essay if you can convey same message with one liner.

And please do not prejudge me based upon grammar,syntax or spelling mistakes. I can not dictate BR posts to my secretary. That is why my posts tend to be blunt and to the point.

[chaanakya]

Wlin , Recently when Indian govt. banned chinese telecom vendors like Huawei and ZTE from supplying equipment to Indian telecom operators , these companies were literally begging to stay in the competition and to lift the ban.Even the Chinese govt. started requesting Indian govt to lift the ban.

They are probably interested in monitoring Indian internet traffic, and perhaps installing worms on Indian systems.

Our Babus have worked out an arrangement whereby Huawei will reveal its source code.

Unfortunately, the Babus seem to be unaware that the standard practice these days is to put the Trojans in the hardware itself. Unless you control the semiconductor fabrication process, you have no right to expect any security.

These are advised by those who know what they are doing. Babus may not have much say in tech things. Yes Tech babus may do so. Hardware Trojans are well known and could be found by Blackbox testing.But then these are technical matters and there are people to advise.

I think permitting Chinese company in one case and not allowing in other case would have been wrong. Your suspicion may not be entirely unfounded. But then what is the guarantee that hardwares supplied by other countries do not have the same.

You are absolutely right that we need to have our semiconductor foundry to have proper security.

[Pranav]

Hardware Trojans are well known and could be found by Blackbox testing.

Not true.

See The Hunt for the Kill Switch - http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors ... ill-switch

and

Cyberwar - Old Trick Threatens the Newest Weapons - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/scien ... wanted=all

[chaanakya]

Hardware Trojans are well known and could be found by Blackbox testing.

Not true.

See The Hunt for the Kill Switch - http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors ... ill-switch

and

Cyberwar - Old Trick Threatens the Newest Weapons - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/scien ... wanted=all

Hardware Trojans in Wireless Cryptographic Integrated Circuits
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp. ... er=5342391

the problem of hardware Trojans in wireless cryptographic integrated circuits, wherein the objective is to leak secret information (i.e. the encryption key) through the wireless channel. Using a mixed-signal system-on-chip, consisting of a DES encryption core and a UWB transmitter, we demonstrate the following three key findings of this study: i) Simple malicious modifications to the digital part of a wireless cryptographic chip suffice to leak information without changing the more sensitive analog part. We demonstrate two hardware Trojan examples, which leak the encryption key by manipulating the transmission amplitude or frequency. ii) Such hardware Trojans do not change the functionality of the digital part or the performances of the analog part and their impact on the wireless transmission parameters can be hidden within the fabrication process variations. Hence, neither traditional manufacturing testing nor recently proposed hardware Trojan detection methods will expose them. iii) For the attacker to be able to discern the leaked information from the legitimate signal, effective hardware Trojans must impose some structure to the transmission parameters. While this structure is not known to the defender, advanced statistical analysis of these parameters (i.e. transmission power), may reveal its existence and, thereby, expose the hardware Trojan.

This is just one of such pointers. Its a constant fight between both side of the divide. But these testing do take place for hardware trojans very extensively. And it is not only for Kill Switch but many other variants. As they develop new trojans, new procedure to test them is also being developed.There can be no 100% certainty as you are hunting for what is designed to be stealth. China or any other country supplying hardware fall into same category unless we ourselves have these testing techniques.

[RajeshA]

Even Captain America uses his shield as an offensive weapon every now and then. Defensive strategy is less than half of a strategy.

[Raghavendra]

China continues to blame Japan despite incriminating video http://www.dailypioneer.com/294612/Chin ... video.html

China has again put the blame on Japan for a maritime incident two months ago that sparked the worst row between the Asian powers in years, after the leak of a video apparently showing the collision.

The Japanese coastguard arrested a Chinese trawler captain in early September for allegedly ramming two of its patrol boats near a disputed island chain in the East China Sea, sparking a barrage of protests from Beijing.

The incident was sensitive because both sides claim the potentially resource-rich islets, known as the Diaoyus in China and Senkakus in Japan, along with the nearby seas where the incidents took place.

"I would like to reiterate that the Japanese side had disturbed, driven away, intercepted and surrounded the Chinese fishing boat, which led to the collision," foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in a statement.

"The behaviour of the Japanese side was illegal," Hong said, when asked to comment on the leaked video.

"The so-called video cannot change the fact and cannot conceal the unlawfulness of the Japanese action," the spokesman added.

Early on yesterday, 44 minutes of footage purporting to show the incident were posted on the YouTube video-sharing website, sending officials in Tokyo scrambling to contain the damage, a week before Japan hosts an Asia-Pacific summit.

The YouTube clip appears to show the blue Chinese boat, marked the Minjinyu 5179, colliding with a grey-hulled Japanese boat as a plume of black smoke is seen billowing from the patrol ship.

Japanese television stations showed the clips throughout the day, assuming them to be authentic, although no officials have confirmed this on the record.

Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara told a media briefing: "I think it probably was taken by the coastguard. That is how I feel after seeing the footage."

He said the Chinese embassy in Tokyo had called Japan's foreign ministry to enquire about the leak, and that China later had "expressed concern and conveyed worry in Tokyo and Beijing through diplomatic channels".

[shiv]

It seems to me that your grounding as a professional private practitioner, is blinding you to the fact that negotiation is the basis on which the entire world revolves - whether it be in the corporate world, or inter-country or inter-whatever. You don't get what you deserve - you get what you negotiate....If you think negotiation is equivalent to begging then all I can say is you have the world all topsy-turvy. In order to negotiate, you need leverage and bargaining power - therefore the entire machinery needs to be geared towards building the required leverage.

Can't find a suitable argument so you try to find excuses from my background. I was wondering if you were made of better stuff than that and perhaps had more substance than your posts indicate. Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to find out.

[jagga]

Apologies if posted earlier.
[youtube]uEgwpQjotbg&feature=related[/youtube]

When it won the Olympic bid, China promised to improve its human rights record. Instead, Unreported World reveals, things have got worse. In a world exclusive, reporter Aidan Hartley and producer Andrew Carter film inside one of Beijing's 'black jails' - which the authorities deny exist - with ordinary people inside, suffering the consequences of fighting eviction to make way for Olympic infrastructure.

[rohitvats]

Shiv,

IMO, inspite of the talk and analysis of Psy-Ops on BRF, lot of people of BRF seem to have fallen head over heals for the PLA - "all so powerful" propaganda.

Each time some news like pearls this or that comes out.....it is all lost for India....we don't tend to analyze the development and do a SWOT analysis of the situation....but hand over the 'victory' in realpolitiks to CCP.....

Couple of days back there was news about PLA having conducted 'first' large scale live-firing exercise in Tibet and how this was a warning to India. Hello? First live firing exercise and it is warning to India? What about a quater million strong Indian Army sitting on those altitudes and doing the same for every year for past couple of decades?

We need to get out of this mindset.

[Arjun]

It seems to me that your grounding as a professional private practitioner, is blinding you to the fact that negotiation is the basis on which the entire world revolves - whether it be in the corporate world, or inter-country or inter-whatever. You don't get what you deserve - you get what you negotiate....If you think negotiation is equivalent to begging then all I can say is you have the world all topsy-turvy. In order to negotiate, you need leverage and bargaining power - therefore the entire machinery needs to be geared towards building the required leverage.

Can't find a suitable argument so you try to find excuses from my background. I was wondering if you were made of better stuff than that and perhaps had more substance than your posts indicate. Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to find out.

No was just trying to figure out where you were coming from when you equate negotiation with begging...because in the corporate world it is almost a mantra that negotiation is central to both one's progress within a firm and in competing with other firms. And the case might not be the same on the private practice side. I apologise if it has caused any offence, it certainly was not intended to. I will also say that your posts are invariably among the most interesting and often most educative of the posts I come across on BR, but I do occassionally disagree with your thoughts such as with regard to China.

[JwalaMukhi]

There are only three all-powerful entities in Asia (near Indian subcontinent). They are:
1) CPC/PLA - their victims include unarmed tibetians, uiyghurs, tianenmen like folks
2) Paki Army - their victims include unarmed entities
3) Non-state jihadis in pak - well no need for elaboration here
Who else has the guts and bravery to kill unarmed people in cold blood. The pakis believe, paki army is the best and all powerful. The chinese believe CPC/PLA is the best and all powerful. As many chinese posters have indicated in no uncertain terms, that practicality is all that matters. The bearer of the Gun is all powerful. Better to kill with borrowed weapon.
All paki lurks will be wondering how come paki army hasn't perfected the practice of all powerful PLA tactics.
All chinese lurks will be wondering how come CPC hasn't perfected the practice of all powerful paki army(Bangladesh project) in its hanification projects.
SDREs are simply awestruck by these 'all powerful' entities.

[svinayak]

check this

“China warship in Indian Ocean will be sitting duck.”

That is based on China will not take over Andaman and Nicobar islands first. If the war starts between China and India, Chinese navy will attack and take over Nicobar islands, then Andaman Islands. These two islands are too far from India. India cannot protect these two islands effectively.

Then, with Navy based on Andaman and Nicobar, Chinese navy can destroy the Indian Navy in India ocean

[brihaspati]

Isn't fear also good for the body? It increases adrenaline secretion, various hormones - releases more glucose into blood stream pushes lungs to get more oxygen - more blood sent off to the muscles! Almost as if you are doing heavy strain exercises! prepares the body to get used to emergencies and things like strokes etc?

Why is the fear factor bad in SDRE's? Also dhotis have been known not to be shaking in fear only - or knotted in fear only - for people like MKG, Sardar, Bose - all dhoti clad for most of their public life. actually after reading on BRF about this constant dig at shaking-Hi***-dhoti's which also get knotted in fear all the time - revived my old habit of wearing the dhoti again when not inconvenienced by the sleet/rain/hail/ice/gale (which is what it is most of the time unfortunately or fortunately for my ambience). When we trained for some of the desi martial arts stuff, we trained with the dhoti neatly tucked in and knotted - or using the hardened bamboo stick.

A critical appraisal of preparation to face up to potential hostile moves by PRC or PLA can be a good candidate to mock the dhoti clad SDRE's jumping up and down or shaking or knotting their dhotis - but does it need to be so? Self mocking is supposed to be a good attribute of civilization - but they all come from civilizations that apparently have a very low self -esteem. Shakespeare is often cited in this regard - but he comes from a culture overly obsessed with pride in their enslavement under the Romans, and who have desperately tried to become "Romans" to the outside world.

The defense forces, government - all may have their own deep reasons to feel confident about what they have prepared for, and may feel immense pride in their wisdom in not revealing anything to the public except reassurances of a general nature. But since 1962, which remains a blame-game-musical chair as to who was really responsible, the dhoti clad SDRE might simply be curious and his excitement need not be mocked at as shaking in fear.

[negi]

Bji while I am no expert in reading human psyche and the reason for what people call as SDRE's dhimmitude, I can however clearly observe a marked difference in India's foreign policy vis a vis our peaceful neighbors. At foreign policy or realpolitik level we have always made this mistake of taking a high moral ground and declaring to the outside world that we do not harbor any expansionist ambitions (a high moral position can be only taken by one who wields the biggest stick unfortunately it does not work the other way round) this to me is a first self goal, secondly we have always been defensive/reactive to our potential adversary's moves for instance all the wars we fought are clear examples of this tendency; I am of the view that military preparedness is only a reflection of the state's aspirations and that is why when China moves troops or builds infrastructure on the border it is a reason for everyone to take notice and be concerned about for they have been very vocal and clear about their position on Arunachal and there is no reason to believe that they won't pull other areas into the disputed category encouraged by India's stance, but one cannot say the same in India's case for I do not see India making noise on Tibbet or say make claims to some random part of China the best we do is lodge complaints through MEA , heck from a third person's perspective the question I would ask myself is what can India do to contain China when it cannot even handle a economically and militarily inferior adversary on its NW ?

[brihaspati]

negi ji,
I simply feel it is a magnificent self-goal to mock ourselves for supposed "fear" or "defeatism" (thats the word used in communist circles) and that too associate it with what is perceived to be the identifying dress of a particular community (we do not say a shaking choost/pajama/alkhalla/jobba/sherwani - and some of them do need knots to hold them up) - whenever civilians raise some doubt about preparations to meet consistent hostile entities like Pak or PRC.

It could be fear, yes, no doubt about it. But what human does not know fear faced with possibility of death, pain or destruction of what he holds dear? Even those hardened by combat experiences surely feel fear - but what appears to be bravery is simply not allowing that fear to affect needful actions. Just merely expressing concern at the level of preparedness, or questioning the political will to counter the actions and moves of hostile entities - should not be a crime of such a huge proportion that it has to be attributed to cowardice or fear in a whole community. For me it seems such a mocking is also a possible way of suppressing what appears to some perhaps as a challenge to their authority in the military and political domain. We have seen it at work in how the criticism about the happenings in 1962 were sought to be quashed, or the incident at Kutch was publicly handled.

Since 62, we have not had any known large scale encounter with the PLA , so the general public has no way of knowing whether things have effectively changed from 62 with respect to the PLA. India has proved its defensive capability militarily with respect to Pak, but has proved offensive capabilities with a clear political goal only once in '71 - by a leader who was later assassinated. It was this same leader, under whom weaponization of nuclear research was accelerated, and we need to remember that the leader was later assassinated. Since then, no Indian political leadership at power has shown any indication of actively planning for redrawing of the political map in the neighbourhood - and the only one who came sort of close after the first asssinated - was also assassinated.

To establish real military capability in the public eye, actual victories in large scale conflicts were needed, and from time to time - to prove consistency. In the absence of both political evidence as well as military evidence, it is reasonable to expect the civilian to become doubtful. He can be pitied for his supposed lack of confidence, but cannot be mocked at for cowardice or fear for his lack of knowledge of the exquisite preparations for all exigencies that might have been secretly put in place by a government and its military wing.

[Hari Seldon]

^^+1 B ji.

Yes, Moi is 400% SDRE. Dhoti quakes in fear now and then and cheeni ruthlessness and soup-e-rearity does awe and scare, occasionally if briefly. Ergo, my fears are delusions only and all iz well or something like that, am told. Fine. Whatever. jai hu.

[naren]

check this

“China warship in Indian Ocean will be sitting duck.”

That is based on China will not take over Andaman and Nicobar islands first. If the war starts between China and India, Chinese navy will attack and take over Nicobar islands, then Andaman Islands. These two islands are too far from India. India cannot protect these two islands effectively.

Then, with Navy based on Andaman and Nicobar, Chinese navy can destroy the Indian Navy in India ocean

India has No First Use only against foreign countries. Since A&N doesnt qualify as "foreign country" and since India is not a signatory to CTBT, India can always conduct a combined "nuclear test" & "missile test" on her own territory.

*added*

The logic constructed is fallacious: A&N is still part of Indian Ocean. If Chinese warships are not sitting ducks in IO, then there is no need to take over A&N. If the Chinese warships are sitting ducks, then there is no possibility that they will take over A&N. Oh yeah, commies are not trained in logic. Too risky onree.

[Pranav]

Hardware Trojans in Wireless Cryptographic Integrated Circuits
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp. ... er=5342391

the problem of hardware Trojans in wireless cryptographic integrated circuits, wherein the objective is to leak secret information (i.e. the encryption key) through the wireless channel. Using a mixed-signal system-on-chip, consisting of a DES encryption core and a UWB transmitter, we demonstrate the following three key findings of this study: i) Simple malicious modifications to the digital part of a wireless cryptographic chip suffice to leak information without changing the more sensitive analog part. We demonstrate two hardware Trojan examples, which leak the encryption key by manipulating the transmission amplitude or frequency. ii) Such hardware Trojans do not change the functionality of the digital part or the performances of the analog part and their impact on the wireless transmission parameters can be hidden within the fabrication process variations. Hence, neither traditional manufacturing testing nor recently proposed hardware Trojan detection methods will expose them. iii) For the attacker to be able to discern the leaked information from the legitimate signal, effective hardware Trojans must impose some structure to the transmission parameters. While this structure is not known to the defender, advanced statistical analysis of these parameters (i.e. transmission power), may reveal its existence and, thereby, expose the hardware Trojan.

This is just one of such pointers. Its a constant fight between both side of the divide. But these testing do take place for hardware trojans very extensively. And it is not only for Kill Switch but many other variants. As they develop new trojans, new procedure to test them is also being developed.There can be no 100% certainty as you are hunting for what is designed to be stealth. China or any other country supplying hardware fall into same category unless we ourselves have these testing techniques.

response in Cyber-warfare thread: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 51#p974751

[shiv]

Why is the fear factor bad in SDRE's?

This is the wrong thread, but since you ask, let me explain.

The same fear can lead to two types of thinking/action

1) There is a dangerous area in my neighborhood. I need to go through that route every day. I know it is dangerous. I could come to some harm there. Scares the crap out of me. But I will go through that way every day. I am wiling to fight if it comes to that.

2) There is a dangerous area in my neighborhood. I need to go through that route ever day. I know it is dangerous. I could come to some harm there. I will stop going through the area. I will find a different route. I do not wish to face the possibility of coming to bodily harm

I think that thought processes like:

• 1) China will defeat us
  2) We are no match
  3) Our nukes are fewer
  4) China has us surrounded

This is the language of dhoti shivering and cowardice. Many people might see that this is "good fear" - perhaps good for their bodies. Good to save oneself.

I do not see it that way. These are statements made out of fear of China that totally subvert rational thought in favor of giving a mental walk over to China. This has been the way on BRF as long as I can remember. Very few people I have seen on BRF are able to pick up points 1 to 4 that I have listed and are able to take them to their logical conclusion in a manner that results in anything other than abject defeat for India. In other words - in the minds of the people who answer these questions. India has already lost.

I have, in the past, started with the counter questions:

• 1) Why are you so sure the Chinese will defeat us?
  2) Why are you sure that we are no match. What do you think we should do if war occurs now, since you know we are no match?
  3) Are fewer nukes a guarantee of defeat? Why?
  4) In what was has China got us surrounded? What makes you believe India is defenceless?

This is how these questions are a answered:

China has an army and air force 3X larger than India and an economy that is 4X larger. They will wipe us out like they did in 1962. Our nukes are puny. We have perhaps 80 nukes, maximum 25 kilotons, mostly air dropped. Our "long range missiles" don't reach Beijing and fail in tests. India has performed only 6 tests of which the thermonuclear test failed and the GoI DRDO lied to India. China on the other hand has done more than 400 nuclear tests. They have 4 megaton bombs and over 400 of them. All based on ICBMs that we cannot touch - to be launched from pales out of reach to us. They will wipe out India in a flash and we will be able to do nothing to them. In the sea they have us surrounded. They have a lnd link to Gwadar where they will,in a flash, start getting their oil. The Chinese have bases in Gwadar, Mayanmar, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. India sole decrepit aircrfat carrier will be knocked out in the first minute by Chinese subs of by a volley of missiles that are designed to take out America's best carrier forces. You are hiding your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think India will get anywhere.

My response to this information is as follows: So India is finished. We don't stand a chance if China attacks us tomorrow. Is there anything we can do?

The response I see to that question is on these lines:
India must increase its defence budget to 5% or 10%. We must start army conscription to recruit an army that is bigger than the Chinese army. 5 million men in arms. We must increase the size of our air force. We must start testing nuclear weapons again and perfect 1 megaton warheads. We need a minimum of 1000 warheads to scare China and they must be based on MIRVed ICBMs. We need to get ISRO, Tata, Mahindras , Infosys into the act of developing military systems. In the meantime we must offer nuclear weapons to Taiwan and Vietnam. And if Pakistan nukes us, we must nuke Pakisatan and China back. We need to put military bases around China. We need to make war and take over Tibet. Take over PoK.

Paradoxically it is expected that the body-preserving fear we have today will suddenly vanish if the above demands are implemented. I do not believe that. Fear is a disease that will find a new excuse once we do all those things listed above (many of which actually cannot be done). But I am not allowed to point this out. And I have been put down for doing that. I am told that dhoti shivering will vanish the minute al the above goals are implemented. "I am afraid today but I will stop being afraid tomorrow after a,b,c,d...z have been achieved. In my view this is self delusion. The fear will never go away. But I can't argue any further..

So I ask: "But what if China attacks us tomorrow? Before India has done all these things?"

The answer to this is: This is what makes me sad for my country. All traitors. Jaichands. Our country has already been taken over. See the proliferation of certain places of worship. And so on..

Clearly there is absolutely no hope for India.

I agree 400% that there is no hope for India. But i still think the reasons and excuses being quoted are stupid dhoti shivering minus logical thinking. This may be good for the bodies of the people making these excuses but it is not good for my body or my country. If my country is in such a bad shape. I will not be able to set it right. But I will go down fighting against all these enemies. I will have done my duty.

Clearly India does not stand a chance of matching China for at least 150 years. Despite my promising to live for 2500 years, I will be dead in 50 years.

The act of reaching the conclusion that we have already lost to China and that fear will go only by doing unrealistic and non implementable actions is to me an indicator of the thought process of continuous un-interruptible fear. I sincerely hope that this fear is good for the bodies of those who express such fears. I just think differently. I may be the lone ostrich but I will be out here when that Chinese nuke hits.

It is everyone's birthright to fear for his body. It is, after all, proven to be good for health. I prefer to follow an unhealthy route.

[shiv]

It could be fear, yes, no doubt about it. But what human does not know fear faced with possibility of death, pain or destruction of what he holds dear?
<snip>
To establish real military capability in the public eye, actual victories in large scale conflicts were needed, and from time to time - to prove consistency. In the absence of both political evidence as well as military evidence, it is reasonable to expect the civilian to become doubtful. He can be pitied for his supposed lack of confidence, but cannot be mocked at for cowardice or fear for his lack of knowledge of the exquisite preparations for all exigencies that might have been secretly put in place by a government and its military wing.

Brihaspatiji I do not want to get into a semantics argument with you, but my objection to this post is as follows:

In summary the above quoted lines say: "It is OK to be afraid. But that fear needs to be assuaged by visible proof that there is no need to be afraid. That visible proof can be provided by military victory from time to time, in the absence of which the civilian will become doubtful"

That means that in order to prove to a mass of people (civilians) that they need not be afraid - some people (eg soldiers/army) must die from time to time in conflict giving direct, timely and periodic evidence to the ever afraid masses that someone is going to fight and die for them. In other words someone else's bodies need to be sacrificed from time to time to assuage the fear of the masses that their own bodies may be spared.

This is the psyche of cowardice - where the masses demand that someone else is brave to reassure them. That someone else is expected to be unnatural and not fear for his life and body. On the other hand it is OK and natural for the masses (civilians?) to be afraid.

A society that thinks is this manner is a selfish dhoti shivering society that will not produce enough people who are unafraid of losing their lives. Fortunately, India is not such a society although the Indian elite, including some on BRF are dhoti shiverers.

In my view that selfish dhoti shivering precludes rational thought on how to deal with China. The fact that soldiers have lived and died in the mountains in the North and west counts for nothing. We are still looking for more proof, more reassurance so that our "natural and understandable" fears can be assuaged. There is no way of assuaging such a fearful society. They need to be defeated and subjugated. And if the society is really that way - someone will, sooner or later, subjugate them.

[Pranav]

China has an army and air force 3X larger than India and an economy that is 4X larger. They will wipe us out like they did in 1962. Our nukes are puny. We have perhaps 80 nukes, maximum 25 kilotons, mostly air dropped. Our "long range missiles" don't reach Beijing and fail in tests. India has performed only 6 tests of which the thermonuclear test failed and the GoI DRDO lied to India. China on the other hand has done more than 400 nuclear tests. They have 4 megaton bombs and over 400 of them. All based on ICBMs that we cannot touch - to be launched from pales out of reach to us. They will wipe out India in a flash and we will be able to do nothing to them. In the sea they have us surrounded. They have a lnd link to Gwadar where they will,in a flash, start getting their oil. The Chinese have bases in Gwadar, Mayanmar, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. India sole decrepit aircrfat carrier will be knocked out in the first minute by Chinese subs of by a volley of missiles that are designed to take out America's best carrier forces. You are hiding your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think India will get anywhere.

That is mostly valid.

The response I see to that question is on these lines:
India must increase its defence budget to 5% or 10%. We must start army conscription to recruit an army that is bigger than the Chinese army. 5 million men in arms. We must increase the size of our air force. We must start testing nuclear weapons again and perfect 1 megaton warheads. We need a minimum of 1000 warheads to scare China and they must be based on MIRVed ICBMs. We need to get ISRO, Tata, Mahindras , Infosys into the act of developing military systems. In the meantime we must offer nuclear weapons to Taiwan and Vietnam. And if Pakistan nukes us, we must nuke Pakisatan and China back. We need to put military bases around China. We need to make war and take over Tibet. Take over PoK.

This is also correct, except that the size of the army doesn't matter too much, and that nobody is asking to start any wars.

What our High Command loots in staging one commonwealth games is much more than would be required to test and tune the thermonukes.

[shiv]

Shiv,

IMO, inspite of the talk and analysis of Psy-Ops on BRF, lot of people of BRF seem to have fallen head over heals for the PLA - "all so powerful" propaganda.

Each time some news like pearls this or that comes out.....it is all lost for India....we don't tend to analyze the development and do a SWOT analysis of the situation....but hand over the 'victory' in realpolitiks to CCP.....

Couple of days back there was news about PLA having conducted 'first' large scale live-firing exercise in Tibet and how this was a warning to India. Hello? First live firing exercise and it is warning to India? What about a quater million strong Indian Army sitting on those altitudes and doing the same for every year for past couple of decades?

We need to get out of this mindset.

Rohit my countrymen are not dhoti-shiverers. But our media and elite and some of those those who read the English media - including a few on BRF are dhoti shiverers who will never be able to debate the China question in a level headed manner because they have already lost to china. They are looking for continuous reassurance that China will be defeated. No such proof will come. So India will lose. It is a zero sum game.

No amount of argument or reassurance is enough to reassure them or make them even consider anything else as possible. I believe that the only way a China debate can be conducted in the presence of such people is to accept their fears and say "OK we have lost to China. So what?". In this atmosphere of mental lack of confidence, it takes only one Chinese to come on here and rub it in and we see a Niagara falls of anger and calls to nuke China. To me it is both funny and sad. It is more funny than sad because my countrymen are not really like this. This is delusional time-pass.

[shiv]

This is also correct, except that the size of the army doesn't matter too much, and that nobody is asking to start any wars.

Speak for yourself sir and read every post on this forum page carefully before speaking for everyone.

[negi]

Shiv to be honest it looks as if you have no points to debate and hence you raise strawmen made of these 'imaginary brave countrymen' vs 'coward BRFites'. For crying out loud can you quote a post which states 'we will loose to China' ? And to qualify that loose where, when under what circumstances ?

As per your logic even Admiral Sureesh Mehta would be a coward no ?

[Pranav]

This is also correct, except that the size of the army doesn't matter too much, and that nobody is asking to start any wars.

Speak for yourself sir and read every post on this forum page carefully before speaking for everyone.

However having proper thermonukes, several hundred long-range missiles, and adequate submarine based delivery mechanisms is critical. You are dealing with the Great Leap Forward types.

[shiv]

Shiv to be honest it looks as if you have no points to debate and hence you raise strawmen made of these 'imaginary brave countrymen' vs 'coward BRFites'. For crying out loud can you quote a post which states 'we will loose to China' ? And to qualify that loose where, when under what circumstances ?

As per your logic even Admiral Sureesh Mehta would be a coward no ?

I am sure you are correct. If you say I have no points to make and therefore I raise strawmen of whatever type you name, you must be right. That is valid as your viewpoint.

Admiral Sureesh Mehta need not personally be a coward, but he raises points that energize and give vitality to the people who choose to follow a cowardly thought process regarding China to the exclusion of other views. Those people will not even look at any viewpoint that says something different and will accuse those who disagree with them as "raising strawmen".

I am nobody to try and change your viewpoint. I accept them as valid and my pointing them out should not upset anyone. I just think differently.

[shiv]

However having proper thermonukes, several hundred long-range missiles, and adequate submarine based delivery mechanisms is critical. You are dealing with the Great Leap Forward types.

I don't have to deal with them. I have accepted defeat. I am waiting for others to do the things that need to be done and will stand back and curse anyone whom I feel does not meet my expectation.

[shiv]

For crying out loud can you quote a post which states 'we will loose to China' ? And to qualify that loose where, when under what circumstances ?

1)It is a zero sum game. If we don't win, we lose. Do you agree or disagree?

2) If war occurs tomorrow with China, do you believe that we will win? Yes or no will do for answers, but I will read the reply if it is longer.

[Pranav]

I don't have to deal with them. I have accepted defeat. I am waiting for others to do the things that need to be done and will stand back and curse anyone whom I feel does not meet my expectation.

If you are waiting for the High Command to do anything, I'm afraid they are rather too busy robbing the poor.

[shiv]

I don't have to deal with them. I have accepted defeat. I am waiting for others to do the things that need to be done and will stand back and curse anyone whom I feel does not meet my expectation.

If you are waiting for the High Command to do anything, I'm afraid they are rather too busy with robbing the poor.

Too true. I can see that up close in Karnataka. But could we talk about China please?

[negi]

1)It is a zero sum game. If we don't win, we lose. Do you agree or disagree?

I do not know how do you define winning and loosing in a war so not sure if it is indeed a zero sum game.

2) If war occurs tomorrow with China, do you believe that we will win? Yes or no will do for answers, but I will read the reply if it is longer.

Can't predict the future, can I ?

[shiv]

1)It is a zero sum game. If we don't win, we lose. Do you agree or disagree?

I do not know how do you define winning and loosing in a war so not sure if it is indeed a zero sum game.

2) If war occurs tomorrow with China, do you believe that we will win? Yes or no will do for answers, but I will read the reply if it is longer.

Can't predict the future, can I ?

Fair enough. Then you are one person who can be relied on to look at more than one viewpoint of an outcome of a war with China. No one can predict the outcome of war, but one can reasonably prepare for one. Reasonable preparedness for war is a bit like trusting a doctor. You have to trust some professional to do the right thing in a situation that you do not have the means to control.

To use an analogy I have used in the past:

If you find yourself passing pure blood instead of crap what would you do?
1) Ask the plumber
2) Ask the electrician
3) Ask the doctor
4) Ask the grocer

When it comes to security issues we need to ask the armed forces regarding preparedness and we have to take their word for it. The armed forces are not promising to be defeated by China.

If the armed forces do not reasonably anticipate defeat, what are we supposed to think?

What this means is that immediate abject defeat is not likely. It does not mean that India is safe from defeat forever.

Therefore, what would it take to avoid defeated and ensure victory in the next 10-20 years? We don't answer that question. We ask the armed forces. What are they saying? What do they advise? They are saying that certain things need to be done.

When the armed forces say that certain things need to be done should we
1) Ensure that those things are done as they demand
or
2) Claim that what the armed forces are saying is not enough and add on a whole lot of other requirements for defence which we think are needed?

Choice 1 means that we trust our armed forces to give the right advice
Choice 2 means that we do not trust the armed forces to give the right advice. We only trust what we think.

I will stop the logic tree here and see where this gets us:
1) You can believe the armed forces when they say they will not lose in a war tomorrow and believe that they need X,Y and Z preparation for the next 20 years

2) You can believe the armed forces when they say they will not lose in a war tomorrow, but you can stop trusting their judgement and disbelieve them about the requirements for the future

3) You can say that you disbelieve the armed forces claim that they can prevail in a war tomorrow but support their contention of what they require in the next 20 years

4) You can refuse to believe anything that the armed forces say. You can say that they are wrong is saying that they will prevail in a war tomorrow and dismiss their requirements for the next 20 years as too little

Which of these 4 statements do you believe? How you deal with China is directly linked with what you believe of these 4 statements. Our threat perception and our security fears can only be addressed by listening to what the specialists are saying. We can choose to believe them or disbelieve them. They will do their duty either way, but we control the future. What do we believe?

[Hari Seldon]

Hey, where have the cheeni drones disappeared to? Adminullahs, have they been banned or something? Must've missed the fireworks.

[Pulikeshi]

Ordered to watch and wait for the Obama visit to four democracies to conclude before posting!

If needed they may be redeployed to Indonesia, South Korea or Japan forums,
then again they may be just taking a Deepavali break and enjoying sweets and fire crackers

[Dhiman]

At foreign policy or realpolitik level we have always made this mistake of taking a high moral ground and declaring to the outside world that we do not harbor any expansionist ambitions (a high moral position can be only taken by one who wields the biggest stick unfortunately it does not work the other way round) this to me is a first self goal,

Correct Sir, Indian foreign policy is run by philosophers who are more concerned about morality rather than by diplomats who are willing to dive head-on and play the dirty game of global geo-politics to maintain India's interests. Looking at our moralistic foreign policy, its hard to imagine that our domestic policy could be so dirty and vice versa. While our politicians have no qualms in playing dirty politics domestically, the same politicians become moralistic and saintly when it comes to international geo-politics. This duality is not fooling anyone and needs to be resolved.

heck from a third person's perspective the question I would ask myself is what can India do to contain China when it cannot even handle a economically and militarily inferior adversary on its NW ?

I have said this before and will say it again, the problem is not China, the problem is that our babus are sleeping. If Sri Lanka (a buddhist country) is willing to dance to Chinese security interests by not allowing Dalai Lama to visit, then there is no reason why MEA babus should not be going hyperactive to make sure that Sri Lanka is dancing to Indian security interests as well by not allowing Chinese Naval ships to make a pit stop.

secondly we have always been defensive/reactive to our potential adversary's moves for instance all the wars we fought are clear examples of this tendency

While I would certainly agree that babu's are not proactive in dealing with potential adversary's moves, I do think MoD is headed in the right direction. As far as I can see MoD may not be fully proactive yet, but they have definitely sheded their defensive mindset in the last few years with respect to India's defense preparedness. I hope to see more being done here. For example: MoD's capital aquisition budget always goes under-utilized year after year. This needs to change, if nothing else spend that money in building border roads, or upgrading ship building facilities, or just order a few more Bharmos missiles or Sukoi fighters.

but one cannot say the same in India's case for I do not see India making noise on Tibbet or say make claims to some random part of China the best we do is lodge complaints through MEA

Unlike MoD, MEA is a whole different basket case and is definitely soundly asleep. Bunch of lazy idots (from the very top of the hierarchy to the bottom) who cite misguided morality as an excuse for their inaction and failures. Sometimes I think MEA babus are more concerned on their sense of dress and looking good (both male and female babus) rather than accomplishing something of benefit.

To establish real military capability in the public eye, actual victories in large scale conflicts were needed, and from time to time - to prove consistency.

While 1962 china war and Khandahar hijacking are definitely events that tend to, let's just say, haunt public security fears. Indian Navy's response during Tsunami is a prime example of an event that brings confidence. As a result, I for one am fully confident that this string of Perls crap can be taken down in half a day if push comes to shove and such demonstrated confidence does help. At the same time, I have zero confidence in MEA's ability to prevent these "string of pearls" from growing into centers of Chinese hegemony in our neighborhood. There is a need to demonstrate Indian Navy's tsunami like capability repeatedly to build public confidence, but not by imposing unnecessary wars.

Having said that its not all about demonstrating capability. Certainly there are areas where improvements have been made and need to be made further: 26/11, Khandahar hijacking, and Kargill being prime examples. There will be tests in future also and that is something that GoI needs to be prepared for proactively at the risk of denting public confidence.

I think that thought processes like:

1) China will defeat us
2) We are no match
3) Our nukes are fewer
4) China has us surrounded


This is the language of dhoti shivering and cowardice. Many people might see that this is "good fear" - perhaps good for their bodies. Good to save oneself.

Shiv Sir, without getting into "fear" or "bravery", let's just say there is an open issue of "public confidence building" with respect to security that GoI needs to undertake by genuinely demonstrating and building capability. While I am more scared of our babu's sleeping rather than China, I don't blame anyone who's dhoti is shivering. I would rather prefer all the dhotis to shiver now rather than when China tries to do, let's just say, a "Kargil" on us. There will be plenty of time to mock those whose dhoti's are shivering after dealing with a major security issue successfully, but for now let the dhotis shiver - its helpful in putting fire under sleeping babus bottoms.

[naren]

Hey, where have the cheeni drones disappeared to? Adminullahs, have they been banned or something? Must've missed the fireworks.

May be they are back to their strategic drawing board to come up with the next brilliant set of ideas:

"China is going to conquer India by building railway link from Yunnan to Sri Lanka."

Its from Strategem #37: Wipe yer musharaff with yer neighbour's toilet paper.