I don't know about others, but what makes me
shiver in my dhoti (did try to wear it once) is a scenario based on the following facts:
- Illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India - especially in India's Northeast - Tripura, Assam, etc. In 2003, George Fernandes claimed there were around 20 million illegal Bangladeshi in India.
- Strong Anti-Indianism in Bangladesh, especially within BNP & Friends, BDR and Bangladesh Army, Islamists
- China's political and economic inroads into Bangladesh
- India's limited access to India's Northeast (Chicken Neck)
- Separatist movements in India's Northeast supported by outside forces
- Strong Maoist standing in Nepal
- Naxalite movement in several Eastern Indian states.
- Kashmiris insurgency
- Radicalization of some Indian Muslims (say in Kerala, West Bengal, etc.)
- China's military infrastructure in Tibet, and increasing naval presence in the Indian Ocean
- Nuclear-armed Pakistan hell-bent on taking on India
- Chinese military presence in Myanmar
Logic dictates that if China wants to make trouble for India it would activate all fronts. Why should they allow India to deal first with one enemy or one challenge, and then move to the next one, etc?! Most probably it would be all internal fronts being activated first, and once Indian forces are under stress, the external fronts also becoming active.
Internal fronts would be:
- Hindu-Muslim communal clashes in mainland India.
- Kashmir insurgency in full-bloom
- Naxalites on rampage
- Illegal Bangladeshi immigrants trying to take over power in Indian Northeast
- Northeast Indian separatist groups fully armed taking on Indian forces in India's Northeast
External fronts could be:
- Chipak forces in J&K
- Chinese forces & Maoists in Nepal, putting pressure on Hindi heartland
- Chinese forces in Tibet-Arunachal Pradesh border
- Chinese forces in Myanmar
- Bangladeshi forces in Siliguri Pass & India's Northeast (having been promised land in India's Northeast by the Chinese and in support of the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants)
- Skirmishes between Chinese PLAN and Indian Navy
- Nuclear Threat from both Pakistan and China
This all need not be one great event, but rather a continued tightening of the screws can be employed against India, until the Chinese and the Pakistanis notice India's hold weakening.
A straight Indo-China War across our international border or LAC is perhaps the most unlikeliest of possibilities. Even a traditional two-front war with China and Pakistan would be highly unlikely. I'm quite confident that India's Armed Forces can hold up both of our foes successfully.
The most likely of scenarios IMHO is
- Indian forces in Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya being attacked and sabotaged by Bangladeshi immigrants, while those forces on the border to Bangladesh being challenged by Bangladesh Rifles and Bangladesh Army.
- Indian forces in Arunachal Pradesh being attacked by Chinese forces from Tibet.
- Indian forces in Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur being attacked by Separatists, fully supported by Chinese 'Irregulars' from the Myanmar side.
- Indian forces in Siliguri Pass being held down by Nepali Maoists with Chinese 'Irregulars'
- Indian forces in Eastern India wanting to go to support other Indian Troops in Northeast being held down by Naxalite forces supported by Nepali Maoists.
- Bangladeshi immigrants and Islamists in West Bengal throwing the area into chaos.
- Kashmir insurgency diverting most of our paramilitary troops.
- Pakistan issuing the Jihadis the go-ahead to cause terror in India's major cities
When the dust settles down, one could see
- Arunachal Pradesh under Chinese control
- Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur as Chinese protectorates
- Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and parts of West Bengal under Bangladeshi control
- Kashmir Valley under Pakistani control
- Chinese soldiers having a permanent presence in Nepal
I simply don't think one can really consider Indo-China War in isolation, not with Chinese making inroads into the Indian Subcontinent - mainly in Nepal and Bangladesh and reaching a strategic understanding with them. Would Bangladesh not show any interest if China offers Bangladesh to split up India's Northeast between the two of them? Bangladesh needs space to breathe. Bangladesh under an anti-Indian Govt. could agree. Until today, India has not shown the inclination to go for total war even under provocation e.g. Mumbai 26/11 terrorist attacks. Should Bangladesh not feel emboldened, that Bangladeshi losses would be minimal? Considering the value of Indian Ocean, the Chinese could feel tempted to make a corridor for themselves through India's Northeast.
Chinese inroads into India's strategic space can be looked upon as
- Simply economic and political influence, not too threatening to India
- Patronage of anti-Indian forces in India's neighborhood, allowing them to prick India even more
- Security Nightmare as mentioned above.
People would look at the threat differently, but what should be clear to all Indians is, that India should take no risk and should become active in pushing back Chinese influence in the Indian Subcontinent.
Just some thoughts!