Managing Pakistan's failure

[ramana]

For a modern nationn state to exist it needs a political idea around which its citizens can rally around, an economy to sustain it and a coherent society.

For Pakistan, it brutality in 1971 and the Bangla Desh revolt showed that the two nation theory on which it formed the political nation state was wrong and collpased. So they tried to rally round Islam.
TSP economy is in doldrums and has collapsed long ago and needs constant infusions from the US and the West. Soon even that will go away once the surpluses are over.

The Islamist/Jihadi/Terrorist attacks and the major insurrections in Baluchistan and FATA/WANA along with TTP in Pakjab proper shows the society is also collapsing.

So every which we see TSP is failing and we need to prepare for it whether we like it or not.

[vera_k]

X-posting from UK thread.

If I were the PM of India I would give instructions for RAA agents to use fake passports, fake visas or shipping containers or some civilian submarine to export Pakis to UK, Canada, Australia & New Zealand.
1 Million pakis to each country will serve them right, probably 2 million to UK.
Some yindoo SDREs can threaten some Kashmiri stone throwers and RAA can arrange for their assylum to UKstan.
For all the mischief that UK has created, justice has to be done.

[svinayak]

For a modern nationn state to exist it needs a political idea around which its citizens can rally around, an economy to sustain it and a coherent society.

For Pakistan, it brutality in 1971 and the Bangla Desh revolt showed that the two nation theory on which it formed the political nation state was wrong and collpased. So they tried to rally round Islam.
TSP economy is in doldrums and has collapsed long ago and needs constant infusions from the US and the West. Soon even that will go away once the surpluses are over.

The Islamist/Jihadi/Terrorist attacks and the major insurrections in Baluchistan and FATA/WANA along with TTP in Pakjab proper shows the society is also collapsing.

So every which we see TSP is failing and we need to prepare for it whether we like it or not.

This is a military structure/army inside nationless state. Its vision of what it owns is completely different from the current state.
Hence as long as the military and the its structure remains this will continue.

[Brad Goodman]

Baluchistan is more prone to Iranian influence in culture same like pakhtoon-kauwa is influenced by Afghanistan.

How is this so?

The Iranian Baluchis are 'moderate' Sunnis in Iranian Sistan-Baluchestan Province, who want independence from Iran. So how come the Baluchis in Pakistan are prone to Iranian influence?

Baluchistan in Pakistan could be the most pro-Indian Pakistani province!

I agree balochis have a strong affinity towards their indic roots. I mean our family kuldevata's temple lies in balochistan and all thanks to Balochis it is still standing and worshipped. So I dont think the wahabi poison has spoilt this pristine land yet.

[ramana]

Things are further down hill than a group in a nationless state can determine the outcome. Especially when the state needs so much outside assitance. In order to keep that entity together the whole neioghborhood has to be willfully destroyed. And that is beyond even US and PRC together.

Please do reflect on my earlier post on the necessary and sufficeint condtions for state existence in modern times.

The current malaise is due to the contours of the replacement that are not worked out.

[SSridhar]

Adding to what Ramana said. While Jinnah was totally opposed to the Khilafat Movement that tried to restore th Caliphate of the Ottoman Empire, he was an ardent admirer of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who succeeded the crumbling Empire and helped establish a modern Turkish nation state. However, that analogy does not bring much solace to troubled Pakistani minds though they are ignorant as to why so. The Turkish had called Turkey their homeland for many centuries even before the Ottoman Empire was established whereas, there was no such concept of a Pakistani state until c. 1947 and they were part and parcel of India and India alone.

[ramana]

SSridhar& Rajaram, A useful study would be to see what happened in FSU and how and why the PI (Peaceful Implosion) was successful.

FSU has all the same ingredients as TSP. The political idea had failed(people wanted to flee the system), there was military defeat(Afganistan) and the economy was in doldrums.

Gorby was pushing for openess in order to buy time for the system to get its balance back. He gets undue credit for being a reformer. His idea was to keep the FSU going. Never forget that.

Meantime a group of hardliners staged a coup. However they found it unable to govern as the citizenry protested. The coup group gave up when the Army core groups did not support them. The citizenry had a national figure (Yeltsin) to rally behind.

In TSP we can envisage :

State ideology = Islamism

Gorby = Some political leader who understands that TSP is collapsing and needs more time. Gilani/Zardari? This one has to do something dramatic to reduce the pressure from competing systems by a unilateral measure. If the Paakjab pressure on Zardari increase he could do something dramatic to unravel the Pakjabi power. PPP is the only political group that has cross the region appeal unlike PML etc.


Hardliners= Wahabandi faction of TSPA

Army Core= Deobandi faction and traditional military families.

Religious figures = Not a player here as they are adjunct of the state power. They will go where ever the money is. IOW Saeed, what ever are props of the state power. They are no holy or pious folks just raisin harvesters.


Political Opposition figure = Badmash? Too bad BB met the sun roof lever

Key thing is to not let the Anglo-Saxon West(US and UK) to intervene to prop up the coup makers under the rubric of stability.

[surinder]

X-posting from UK thread.

If I were the PM of India I would give instructions for RAA agents to use fake passports, fake visas or shipping containers or some civilian submarine to export Pakis to UK, Canada, Australia & New Zealand.
1 Million pakis to each country will serve them right, probably 2 million to UK.
Some yindoo SDREs can threaten some Kashmiri stone throwers and RAA can arrange for their assylum to UKstan.
For all the mischief that UK has created, justice has to be done.

Actually, a million of them to KSA would be even more productive antidote.

[svinayak]

SSridhar& Rajaram, A useful study would be to see what happened in FSU and how and why the PI (Peaceful Implosion) was successful.

FSU has all the same ingredients as TSP. The political idea had failed(people wanted to flee the system), there was military defeat(Afganistan) and the economy was in doldrums.
Key thing is to not let the Anglo-Saxon West(US and UK) to intervene to prop up the coup makers under the rubric of stability.

This is good analogy.
Connect this with what Mushy has been saying everywhere.
Mushys job is to keep people to not panic and beleive in Pakistan. What is Pakistan for other countries.
It is being projected a country which can help them to tackle India. There are lots of stories which they tell other countries.
But the recent summit to solicit money for Pakistan after the floods needs more effort. They are in real trouble with global recession.

EXCLUSIVE: Don’t mess with Pakistan —By Pervez Musharraf

The world is watching Pakistan, and rightly so. It’s a happening place. Pakistan is at the center of geostrategic revolution and realignments. The economic, social and political aspirations of China, Afghanistan, Iran, and India turn on securing peace, prosperity, and stability in Pakistan. Our country can be an agent of positive change, one that creates unique economic interdependencies between central, west and south Asian countries and the Middle East through trade and energy partnerships. Or there’s the other option: the borderless militancy Pakistan is battling could take down the whole region.

Our country was born of violence, in August 1947. Just months after the partition of the subcontinent and the creation of the Dominion of Pakistan, we were at war with India over Kashmir. Pakistan and India’s mutual animosity and history of confrontation remain powerful forces in South Asia to this day.

It is Pakistan and the founder of Pakistan Jinnah decided to wage war against India in 1948.
What is the purpose of the freedom for India when after 200 year of occupation we are at war with somebody which was not a country.

[ramana]

So we are on right track.

Again the braggart brags of borderless militancy. IOW he is sying pay up or he will unleash the Kraken. Well Medusa's head froze it an India will develop the equivalent. What one should assure him is that there is a chotu with his name on it.

[SSridhar]

SSridhar& Rajaram, A useful study would be to see what happened in FSU and how and why the PI (Peaceful Implosion) was successful.

Ramana, that is indeed a good & interesting comparison to pursue. I had done earlier a study of Nazi Germany & TSP. Pakistan offers extensive opportunities for academic pursuits !

One thing that strikes me about the 'State Ideology' and the 'Hardliners' that you mentioned. I believe that Islam & hatred for Hindus and India that were initially thought of as binding factors continue to be there as 'State Ideology' today too but for different reasons. While devastating India was an end-all project then, that has now become a 'stepping stone' for larger global domination because of those whom you call as 'Hardliners' in collaboration with the external Salafis and Takfirists.

[JE Menon]

>>While devastating India was an end-all project then, that has now become a 'stepping stone' for larger global domination because of those whom you call as 'Hardliners' in collaboration with the external Salafis and Takfirists.

This is absolutely the point. And this is why for years some of us on BR have been saying that the ambitions of the Pakjabi elite go far beyond just ruining India. This ambition has begun to find voice especially after the nuclear capability was secured, and it is IMHO based on the pillar of faith and the strategic cushion provided by the ummah. Pakistani strategists assess that the ummah will acquiesce, if not participate, in in its global ambition. But countries other than India are catching on to this dangerous tendency.

While its ambition lies on a poor understanding of deterrence (or rather a schoolyard interpretation of it), Pakistan continues to test the limits of tolerance through repeated and egregious violations of the rules of the game - and revels everytime some two-bit commentator refers to the country's defiant assertation of what it considers its "interests". What it does not realise is that people will not watch this and simply sit around, although it may expect that the cowering Hindu may do so.

Note that there were 100 drone strikes in Pakistan year to date. And the drones are often based in Pakistan. Now consider this: here is a nuclear country whose territory is being used for foreign military bases from which attacks are launched against its own citizens - while its military leadership fantasizes about taking over neighbouring countries.

The Americans, with their subtle double games too, have drawn out the Pakisatans into the open - getting them to reveal their agenda (i.e. get the US out and relaunch the Taliban into Afghanistan and neighbouring countries, while charging the US for maintaining stability). In other words to finance their ambitions with American taxpayer money. And now that their agenda has been revealed, on multiple levels - from ministerial statements to wikileaks and academic papers and research - Washington has casually announced that they will stay around for some years longer.

For Pakistan, the fun is just beginning.

[Lalmohan]

^^^ western elites have no understanding of khilafat, and why the islamists push for it and why the ummah goes along with it. they think they can continue to divide and conquer - but are dividing at the wrong point

we are alone in this fight

[ramana]

Another analogy is that current TSP is like the Slave dynasty of Delhi. The comparison is just as the Slave Dynasty started out as slaves of Mohd Ghori, these are slaves of UK, US and PRC in that order. They even had their own female Sultan BB, for awhile till she met her sun roof lever just as Razia Sultana was offed.

They need a Khilji revolution to get rid of the Slave mentality.

[ramana]

Something is odd.
TSPA knows very well India wont attack and its armament program is slower than molasses. In addition to that it has US guarantees and data about Indian forces movements.

Yet it keeps saying it cant and wont move its troops to face the Afghan Taliban let alone the Pakiban. So what gives? What is the real reasons why TSPA wont face the Afghan Taliban? US doesn't care about the Pakiban aka TTP etc.

[shiv]

Something is odd.
TSPA knows very well India wont attack and its armament program is slower than molasses. In addition to that it has US guarantees and data about Indian forces movements.

Yet it keeps saying it cant and wont move its troops to face the Afghan Taliban let alone the Pakiban. So what gives? What is the real reasons why TSPA wont face the Afghan Taliban? US doesn't care about the Pakiban aka TTP etc.

I don't think TSP is that casual about India. Of course India is a good excuse for not acting against the Taliban, but the Pakis have convinced themselves that Indians are liars and that all this "slow procurement" and "We want peace" is a Brahmin-Bania lie to put Pakistan off its guard. The Pakistan experience shows that hot combat with India has not been easy. And even plain bean counting puts India ahead.

I have found that all the Western interlocutors who have spoken to Pakis and tried to tell Pakis not to be obsessed with India have all ended up themselves being convinced by Pakistan that India is a threat and that nothing can happen until the India threat is removed. Hence the frequent calls to get India to "make peace" to free up Pakistan.

What was needed (and what is possibly happening) is that Pakistan's friends needed to be convinced that India would not budge and that they would not be able to do anything to make India dilute its stand or appear less threatening. Kargil, Kandahar and 26/11 helped Indian in that cause. The only option is to force the Pakistani army to face reality. India cannot be forced by anyone to meet Paki demands and that Pakistan will not keep on receiving endless aid against India while everyone waits with fingers crossed for Pakis to act against Taliban.

Of course we need to see how much longer Pakistan's friends keep on arming Pakistan against India. China is a given - but I am particularly interested in seeing if the US is playing a fork-tongued double game here - hunting with the Indian hound and running with the Paki hare.

[ShauryaT]

Something is odd.
TSPA knows very well India wont attack and its armament program is slower than molasses. In addition to that it has US guarantees and data about Indian forces movements.

Yet it keeps saying it cant and wont move its troops to face the Afghan Taliban let alone the Pakiban. So what gives? What is the real reasons why TSPA wont face the Afghan Taliban? US doesn't care about the Pakiban aka TTP etc.

My view is, it is all to do with their interests vis-a-vis the Pashtuns. We have to remind ourselves that the Pakjab army is what TSP is all about and within this army the Pakjabs dominate, especially the officer ranks.

An assault in the Pashtun heartlands runs the risk of alienating the Pashtuns, in a region where the Durand line is not recognized by Pashtuns on both sides of the border. It runs the risk of a civil war within TSP and may give impetus to the idea of a greater Afghanistan, if actively supported by the Pashtuns on the east of the Durand line. TSP cannot remotely afford this risk and hence apart from the Indian front risk, the Pakjab army would not dream of assaulting the Pashtun dominated Taleban.

[svinayak]

Something is odd.
TSPA knows very well India wont attack and its armament program is slower than molasses. In addition to that it has US guarantees and data about Indian forces movements.

Yet it keeps saying it cant and wont move its troops to face the Afghan Taliban let alone the Pakiban. So what gives? What is the real reasons why TSPA wont face the Afghan Taliban? US doesn't care about the Pakiban aka TTP etc.

Pak is trying to get a larger geo political combination for itself from the Ummah world. - Iran , Turkey etc. to face off India.

Since they have reached limitation of US and PRC for their geo political calculation they are working on the last combination which can yield them some gains before the last option.

[ShauryaT]

Of course we need to see how much longer Pakistan's friends keep on arming Pakistan against India. China is a given - but I am particularly interested in seeing if the US is playing a fork-tongued double game here - hunting with the Indian hound and running with the Paki hare.

They cannot even if they wish to. Geopolitics simply does not allow it. With Iran closed and TSP the only way in from the waters, there is just no way the US can afford this. The way I see it, the price of TSP cooperation are guns pointed at India. The US will have no issues as long as Indian capability levels and political will to "actively" play in the geo-political game remains at a subpar level.

It is India that will have to up the stakes in order for things to change.

[shiv]

Of course we need to see how much longer Pakistan's friends keep on arming Pakistan against India. China is a given - but I am particularly interested in seeing if the US is playing a fork-tongued double game here - hunting with the Indian hound and running with the Paki hare.

They cannot even if they wish to. Geopolitics simply does not allow it. With Iran closed and TSP the only way in from the waters, there is just no way the US can afford this. The way I see it, the price of TSP cooperation are guns pointed at India. The US will have no issues as long as Indian capability levels and political will to "actively" play in the geo-political game remains at a subpar level.

It is India that will have to up the stakes in order for things to change.

That only means that Ombaba's recent statements in India amount to a forked tongued double game. You say the US cannot afford that?

[Pulikeshi]

One key question to ask is what is the idea of PakiSatan?

On BRF many answers have been provided, some more brilliant than others. Here is an addition to that effort. The key is to realize that PakiSatan is a “cultural vacuum” (not India) maintained by an Army. Taken to an extreme the Islamists (Talibunnies included) will allow the Army to realize this dream. The more the Army fears bursting of the “cultural vacuum,” the more the reliance on the informal militias. This means, even if India surrenders Jammu & Kashmir, decides to pay tribute, etc. the PakiSatan Army will not accept those terms. The PakiSatan Army will marry anyone or anything to keep their "cultural vacuum" intact. Economics, trade, Human development, standard of living, budgets, etc. are all kufr concepts that have no merit to maintain the "cultural vacuum." None of those things matter!

This realization has perhaps caused GOI to pursue the strategy of ‘let them stew in their own juices’
However, what that strategy misses is what happens when they stew enough and excess vacuum causes the implosion. Something has to fill that void, what will it be?
As India becomes an ascendant power with a vibrant economy, this vacuum bumb that is set to go off, where when not the if is in question, is a cause for grave concern. The game is changing, if not changed.

There are multiple military and non-military policy options for India. For example, can India pursue military options on non-Eastern border of Pakistan? Can India (or Indian NGOs) pursue civilian leadership awards, sponsorship of NGOs, freedom movements, etc? Could even be done as part of a wider initiative in Brihat-Asia (starting with the Indian sub-continent). Ideas are aplenty, the question is is there a desire to be pro-active rather than reactive and passive?

This is the "Tragedy of the Pure" -
PakiSatan (Pure Satan) can never be in peace as the country will never be pure!
The PakiSatan Army is there to maintain the pure "cultural vacuum"

[rohitvats]

I don't think TSP is that casual about India. Of course India is a good excuse for not acting against the Taliban, but the Pakis have convinced themselves that Indians are liars and that all this "slow procurement" and "We want peace" is a Brahmin-Bania lie to put Pakistan off its guard. The Pakistan experience shows that hot combat with India has not been easy. And even plain bean counting puts India ahead.

If I may add, lot of planned mechanization and induction of major weapon systems (both qualitatively and quantitatively) will happen in next Defense Plan - 2012-2017. It is no conincidence that Kiyani says the IA can put in place forces to implement Cold Start in 5years time.

Of course we need to see how much longer Pakistan's friends keep on arming Pakistan against India. China is a given - but I am particularly interested in seeing if the US is playing a fork-tongued double game here - hunting with the Indian hound and running with the Paki hare.

Given the amount of induction that will happen in the Services in next five years, it will really be interesting to see the level of 'support' TSPA receives from USA. IMO, Indian induction will easily reach USD 20-30billion in next five years - both fresh and already planned and approved. And we've nnot yet breached the 2% of GDP for Defense line....So, we indeed are living in interesting times.

[ShauryaT]

That only means that Ombaba's recent statements in India amount to a forked tongued double game. You say the US cannot afford that?

I can only hope that the policy makers on the Indian side do not buy into this sweet talk and look at the actions that follow these words. The Pakjab army certainly does not buy into sweet words and ensures billions are paid to them, including the ability to act to show who is in control. (Example: the recent stoppage of ALL supplies from Pakistan, to protest against an attack on PA forces, the refusal to go after the Taleban in Pakistani territory)

Ombaba's recent statements in India were preceded by a $2 billion check to our friendly general next door. So, The US can afford to play a double game with India because, Indian is unwilling and to a degree unable to up the stakes. They have been able to do this because

- Indian leaderships means and goals for the region are not clear (wishes without any commitment to them are not goals)
- Indian capabilities to accomplish those wishes have always been at the sub par level
- The geo-political equations in the region have decisively turned in favor of Pakistan since the fall of the Shah, restricting US choices

So, if US puts pressure on TSP, to show restraint and curb its activities against India, they are a direct result of its own immediate and short term goals in the region.

Be forked tongue with India and maybe get away with it, yes. Be forked tongue with TSP and get away with it, No.

So, India will have to up the stakes to change this equation.

[A_Gupta]

State ideology = Islamism

Unlike in the former Soviet Union, neither the Pakistani intelligentsia (such as it is) nor the aam aadmi is disillusioned with the state ideology. The failures of the ideology, as evidenced in regular bomb blasts, is attributed to Hindu/Zionist agents, and to lack of sufficient piety in the country.

i.e., in the former Soviet Union, there were few true believers in the state ideology; and in Pakistan the situation is quite the opposite.

The two nation theory was drowned in the Bay of Bengal, as was the theory of the TFTA martial races; yet Pakistaniyat persists. Pakistan will simply not have an ideological collapse any time soon. Pakistan's collapse, if it comes, will be a physical disintegration due to unsustainable economy, IMO. Or it will degenerate into an ungovernable hell like Somalia.

[ramana]

So what you are saying is there are alternate collapse mechanisms: economic and state.

We already said that US and the other 3.5 friends will bail them out econommically
and TSPA is there it ensure state control.

[krisna]

Indian response may be similar to the US response to FSU.
Of course FSU did not have the support of the 3.5 friends as with TSP.
GOI during independence likely thought that TSP will merge with India in due course of time. Soon that hopes were belied.
India cannot do it militarily because of the effects of 3.5 friends. It can defeat TSP. But India can have more problems long term with this short term approach.Hence no hot pursuits across borders except shooting mouths and flying dossiers mizziles.

IMHO GOI has ruled out military approach for TSP.
It is following the dictum of “let it stew in its own juice”. It is strictly following a policy of non interference regarding TSP.
TSP is a human being with suicidal intent. Doctor(3.5 friends) can leverage and protect TSP for some time as long as their resources can allow them. Not forever. Even a doctor(3.5 friends) cannot protect a jihadi (soosai bummer) for long.

TSP is India’s neighbour and not the 3.5 friends neighbours. It belongs to Indic culture which has gone astray. It is India’s problem and not theirs.

GOI is quietly improving its arsenal which can be unbeatable in the long term-ie improving the socio-economic conditions.
With increasing economic might,
1) it is easy to kick start many programs for military which is happening now. Military muscle can be swiftly augmented with money.TSP cannot defeat and occupy India. Same with dragon. It is likely stalemate currently.
2) economic might brings in unforeseen strength in diplomatic circles. India has to play its cards well. It can stave/wean off 3.5 friends or at least have some leverage in its dealings. With time TSP( with soosai intent) support will go down surely raising the costs for 3.5 friends relatively wrt India.. Unless their economy is strong they would not support TSP indefinitely.
Only way TSP can be independent on its own is to develop it self- ie-improve its own socioeconomic indicators. This can occur only when it sheds its hatred towards India. Being friendly to India can bring greater benefits long term rather than being friends with 3.5 friends for short term. Donor fatigue sets in sooner rather than late.

All in all India is the best friend to have or the worst foe you can ever have. Without firing a shot India can scr*w TSP royally in long term.
All the blasts and killing of Indians are short term gains in the long term battle for achieving our goals. Nations goals are in 100s years and not in human years.

JMTs.

[Kamboja]

Only way TSP can be independent on its own is to develop it self- ie-improve its own socioeconomic indicators. This can occur only when it sheds its hatred towards India. Being friendly to India can bring greater benefits long term rather than being friends with 3.5 friends for short term.

I do not disagree with this, but I think the problem is you are laying out a rational argument, whereas TSP has repeatedly demonstrated itself to be irrationally but vehemently anti-India, and damn the consequences (we will eat grass etc.).

If TSP is honest with itself, the army and politicians will admit that the best possible way to develop the country and therefore see to the well-being of its citizens is, at minimum, a friendly trade-based relationship with India. A defensive alliance and possibly even confederation at some future date (as laid out by gurus here, for instance) make even more sense. The Kashmir 'problem' would be rendered moot, defense expenditure would be reduced, America and China and Al-Q and Taliban wouldn't be fighting their wars on the Indian subcontinent.

It all makes eminent sense, but none of that matters when you are TSP, when your entire identity is based on a rejection and negation of the Indic self, when you have chosen to hate your own past with all the passion of the neophyte eager to prove himself more pious than the prophet, more loyal than the king.

The problem is that the moment TSP ceases to define itself as anti-India, everyone there will wake up and notice that they are basically Indians on the western periphery of the subcontinent... so what was the point of Partition and all the wars and the great Quaid and all that propaganda if it was all pointless in the end? Thus they maintain the facade and lie to themselves.

The moment we cause the negation of the equation TSP = -India, most of our western headache will be solved, IMHO.

[shiv]

The problem is that the moment TSP ceases to define itself as anti-India, everyone there will wake up and notice that they are basically Indians on the western periphery of the subcontinent... so what was the point of Partition and all the wars and the great Quaid and all that propaganda if it was all pointless in the end? Thus they maintain the facade and lie to themselves.

The moment we cause the negation of the equation TSP = -India, most of our western headache will be solved, IMHO.

And as people have pointed out time and again the most powerful tool for negating India is to hide behind Islam, saying India is Hindu and that Pakistanis are Muslim and cannot be Hindus and therefore not Indian. A complete negation of India's Hindu ethos is required for Pakistaniyat to integrate with India. This will not happen. Ironically Pakistanis have reinforced the middle-eastern connections of Islam and made it more local than global by being exactly as you expressed it:

with all the passion of the neophyte eager to prove himself more pious than the prophet, more loyal than the king

Pakistan at a deeper level and at a level not acknowledged by modern thought that revolves around liberalism and human rights, has been constructed as a retreat of Islam. No amount of suffering and privation, no number of deaths can be too great in order to protect Islam.

In practical terms what Pakistan has done is to set up any opposition to Pakistan as opposition to Islam. How is the world dealing with this?

The west- Pakistan's biggest sponsors are now finding out about Islam in Pakistan and they are being judgemental about Islam. The west is searching for the chimera of an unattainable "moderate Islam" where women will show there faces and party with strange men. This is one type of conflict with Islam.

The Indian way has not been judgemental about Islam. Islam can be Islam - as long as it coexists with others. This is also a type of conflict with Islam - but probably less so than the conflict in the west.

The Chinese way is to ruthlessly beat down and suppress anyone who disagrees with the group beyond a point. The Chinese speak a language that Islamists understand. Still they will cheerfully combat Islam if that is needed. Pakistanis are too scared to oppose China. They see China as the conqueror of India - a nation that Pakis fear.

So what Pakistan has done is to set up a conflict with Islam by way of which economic and physical strife for Pakistanis can be ignored or dismissed as a necessity in the larger interests of saving Islam. In my view there are only two ways of dealing with the dilemma that Pakistan poses to the entire world. One is to oppose Pakistan and be accused of opposing Islam. The other is to let Pakistanis get as much Islam as they want.

The Indian way has been to allow the Pakistanis to get as much Islam as they want. That means allowing the Taliban to rule if necessary but defending India against the consequences.

The western way has been to try and prevail on one group of Pakistanis who are arbitrarily designated as "moderate" to oppose and fight others who are designated as extremists. For India this is a problem because Pakistanis change their behavior to suit the west when they need money, but remain true to their cause of protecting Islam from outsiders. China has trouble in Xinjiang so China too is like the West and will pay one bunch to oppose another.

The west are encouraging civil war in Pakistan by supporting an paying one group to oppose another. It so happens that the group that the west supports is also the group that China supports. India may be the only country that opposes civil war in Pakistan and actually talks about the mango Abdul (average Pakistani). In my view India is also the country that is least likely to be affected by a Taliban takeover of Pakistan because Pakistani behavior towards India has always been Talibanic. It would make little difference.

Pakistan today is the result of all these conflicts and conflicting methods of dealing with it. The west and china are both willing to pay and arm one group of Pakistanis to fight someone else - be it India or the Taliban. India is the only country that is not paying some group in Pakistan to fight anyone.

It appears to me that "economics" is often utilized in variable ways. If the elite of Pakistan who get paid by both the US and china are well off, the economy they represent is touted as positive and progressive. What is ignored is the vast mass of mango Abduls who are the tools used by various groups to fight someone else. Nobody can predict exactly what will happen in future, but from an Indian viewpoint I believe it would be ideal if various entities (US, China) stopped paying Pakistani groups to fight others. Since India is unable to prevail upon he US and China to stop paying some Pakistanis to fight others we have to search for positives in the bad bargain that we have got.

Perhaps the best positive for us will be civil war in Pakistan. If others are paying Pakistanis to fight Pakistanis - that is the best bargain we can get. Ultimately Pakistanis will turn on each other and their sponsors. Only a prolonged sate of chronic civil war, strife and large pockets of hunger and anger in Pakistan can erase or modify the delusions of Islamic supremacy that has tried to ignore both the geography and the history of the civilization around the Indus.

[rohitvats]

On the implosion thing with respect to Pakistan - from what I hear in some military circles, there seems to be a thought to get TSPA to go bankrupt in the process of matching India....and raise the cost to 3.5 freinds of propping up TSPA.

[A_Gupta]

Read the 13 newspaper articles written in 1924 by Lala Lajpat Rai here:
http://www.columbia.edu/itc/mealac/prit ... _1924.html

in particular his recommendations (but really the 13 articles have to be read as a whole)
http://www.columbia.edu/itc/mealac/prit ... 2part.html

It seems to me that post-Partition, India is mostly heeding his advice and Pakistan is continuing to ignore it.

[ramana]

Something is odd.
TSPA knows very well India wont attack and its armament program is slower than molasses. In addition to that it has US guarantees and data about Indian forces movements.

Yet it keeps saying it cant and wont move its troops to face the Afghan Taliban let alone the Pakiban. So what gives? What is the real reasons why TSPA wont face the Afghan Taliban? US doesn't care about the Pakiban aka TTP etc.

My view is, it is all to do with their interests vis-a-vis the Pashtuns. We have to remind ourselves that the Pakjab army is what TSP is all about and within this army the Pakjabs dominate, especially the officer ranks.

An assault in the Pashtun heartlands runs the risk of alienating the Pashtuns, in a region where the Durand line is not recognized by Pashtuns on both sides of the border. It runs the risk of a civil war within TSP and may give impetus to the idea of a greater Afghanistan, if actively supported by the Pashtuns on the east of the Durand line. TSP cannot remotely afford this risk and hence apart from the Indian front risk, the Pakjab army would not dream of assaulting the Pashtun dominated Taleban.

I'll reply to this but also to others as I can't quote all the replies.

Yes they don't want to go into K-P formerly known as NWFP as it will be civil war in addition to the numerous insurgencies tearing them apart. A bigger fear is there will be break out inside the TSPA with the hardliner (Wahabandi faction) trying to go for the crown jewels.

rohitvats, This might not work for the TSP can't already afford to match India and the 3.5 friends are making India pay for their support to TSP by jacking up the price. So long as India keeps buying hardware from West it will be propping up the regime in TSP.
Need to think asymmetric here. I see an opportunity with rise in cotton price and other commodities due to PRC and US economic crisis.

krisna, "let them stew in their juices" is passive policy. What is needed in addition is an active indirect policy that rises the costs to TSP and its 3.5 friends. For example in the mid-80s the US persuaded the KSA to pump more oil which depressed the prices that indirectly reduced the SU economy and stepped up the war support in Afghan which increased the costs. Same withthe Star Wars. So we need to find analogues for that in the current situation. BTW Ottomon Turkey was also considered the bedrock of ghazis/janniseries but even they changed when faced with reality in early 20th century.

When Mrs G let those defeated TSPA 93,000 POWs back it should have set off a revolution inside TSP just as it did in earlier times in history (eg. Czarist Russia etc.) However what TSP did was to sack the drunk Yahaya khan and got more Islamism under Nazariya-e-Paksitan and revived its ideology to stave of its collpase then . It helped that US-PRC_KSA stepped up its support. The SU takeover of Afghanistan prevented the collapse at that time itself.

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I think India should do something to induce the US to force the TSPA to go into K-P and clean up. This is needed for US continuation as a global arbiter. Or else malaise will set in.

[RajeshA]

Once the Russians jump into the fray in Afghanistan, they will contribute all the supply routes America needs into Afghanistan.

It is then that Americans would turn on the heat on the Haqqanis and the Quetta Shura (or let's say the Karachi Shura). America would go from drone attacks to 'awe and shock'.

Pakistan is soon going to find out, that PRC cannot save Pakistan from American firepower.

I think, India should offer the air corridor to America into Afghanistan through J&K and Gilgit-Baltistan, which is claimed by India or is considered in dispute.

[tarun]

Once the Russians jump into the fray in Afghanistan, they will contribute all the supply routes America needs into Afghanistan.

It didn't happen when Pakistan blocked the supply routes for weeks sometime back why shall it happen now ?

[RajeshA]

Once the Russians jump into the fray in Afghanistan, they will contribute all the supply routes America needs into Afghanistan.

It didn't happen when Pakistan blocked the supply routes for weeks sometime back why shall it happen now ?

Once the Russians jump into the fray in Afghanistan!

[shiv]

Cross post

Err, Pervez Hoodbhoy does some more pole kholing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBOsPrFd ... re=related

[ramana]

RAND report

Pakistan-Can US Secure and Insecure State?

By C. Fair

The very topic of this thread! BTW the above report is before the floods.

[svinayak]

When Mrs G let those defeated TSPA 93,000 POWs back it should have set off a revolution inside TSP just as it did in earlier times in history (eg. Czarist Russia etc.) However what TSP did was to sack the drunk Yahaya khan and got more Islamism under Nazariya-e-Paksitan and revived its ideology to stave of its collpase then . It helped that US-PRC_KSA stepped up its support. The SU takeover of Afghanistan prevented the collapse at that time itself.

-------

Bhutto took over and attacked the military after the defeat in 1971. He got legitimacy to the civilians and this is a sort of revolution for Pakistan after 1958. Bhutto got a new constitution for the new Pakistan in 1973 and gave legitimacy to the nuclear bomb.

Zia just built his Islamic structure on what Bhutto had built including islamization of the state.

[pgbhat]

RAND report

Pakistan-Can US Secure and Insecure State?

By C. Fair

The very topic of this thread! BTW the above report is before the floods.

Less likely futures include an increasingly theocratic or Islamist state or even a breakup of the state itself. More likely, Pakistan may evolve into a praetorian and authoritarian state tightly under the control of the military and intelligence agencies.

Her assessment.

[shiv]

For the record- Wikikeaks from 2008 only confirms what has been said here
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-emba ... nts/181529

8. (S/REL NATO) Lavoy commented on two causes of instability in western Pakistan that could cause Pakistan to completely lose control of its Pashtun territories over the next few years. Traditional Pashtun tribal authority has broken down since the anti-Soviet jihad period, and is no longer capable of resolving social harmony at the community level. Pakistan has also promulgated a policy of neglect of Pashtun areas and still lacks a strategy to deal holistically with social problems of illiteracy, unemployment, and disaffected youth. Both of these situations play to the advantage of insurgent and extremist groups.

12. (S/REL NATO) Amidst the problems on the frontier, the Pakistani economy is in tatters, Lavoy continued. The International Monetary Fund's pledge of USD 6.7 billion will only address the immediate balance of payments crisis, but will not alleviate under- or un-employment for over a third of the population Pakistan's population is becoming less and les educated, the country lacks sufficient energy and clean water resources to serve its population, an there is minimal foreign investment. Lavoy addd that despite pending economic catastrophe, Pakstan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rae than any other country in the world.

[ramana]

He ignores the fact that Taliban have been regularly massacring the traditional: leadership sort of their own French Revolution.