Managing Chinese Threat

[Prem]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/11/ ... nobel.html
Japan to Send Envoy to Nobel Peace Award Ceremony

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan said on Wednesday it will send an envoy to attend a Nobel Peace Prize ceremony honoring Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, in a move that could thwart recent efforts by Tokyo and Beijing to cool tensions. Ties between Asia's two biggest economies have deteriorated since September after Japan detained a Chinese skipper whose trawler collided with Japan patrol vessels off islands in the East China Sea that both countries claim. The skipper was later released and sent home, but tensions have festered, prompting worries about fallout for business ties. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, under fire from domestic critics accusing him of mishandling the row, tried to mute the dispute last week with an ice-breaking meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines of a regional summit. But top government spokesman Yoshito Sengoku said Japan would attend the December 10 Nobel ceremony in Oslo, despite a request from China to skip the event

.

( Seems Son Zu has made all the wrong economic and political moves in last few months. Lets hope Pakis are not advising them)

[ramana]

X-posted..

Prem wrote in the prespectives thread....
http://biggovernment.com/cstreet/2010/1 ... e-is-over/
China’s Economic Miracle Is Over

China funded the largest economic stimulus programs in world history from July of 2009 through June of 2010. As a percentage comparison to the U.S. stimulus plan; the Chinese spent twice the amount of money in half the time. China focused their stimulus on encouraging production, whereas America’s stimulus went to consumption. It now appears that the Chinese produced a huge portion of the consumer goods Americans bought with their stimulus dollars. Consequently, China’s unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, whereas the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.6%. Unfortunately for China, their stimulus success has also sown the seeds of their economic demise. A vicious combination of inflation and a strengthening currency is about to end the Chinese economic miracle.
Over the last fifteen years, China’s economy quadrupled; while the U.S. doubled and Japan had no growth. The graph below demonstrates China has not taken advantage of its success to develop competitive domestic manufacturing. The Chinese export “miracle,” as shown in yellow, is still due to U.S. and Asian manufacturers outsourcing their low-tech “processing” of component assemblies to benefit from China’s low effective wage rates. China continues to run a small deficit in “ordinary” finished goods manufacturing and a larger deficit in the “other” category of services.
Several recent academic studies have determined that, every 10% appreciation of China’s currency, would result in a 17% reduction in China’s processed exports. Estimates of how much the Chinese currency would rise in value if the Chinese government allowed it to float, range from 10% to 40%. Therefore, a free floating currency could increase China’s unemployment by 40 to 160 million!
China’s economic miracle allowed the country to become the second largest economy and the largest exporter in the history of the world. This miracle continues to be grounded on the third world economic model of providing foreigners impoverished peasant labor at the lowest effective cost. High unemployment in the rest of the world is driving labor costs down, whereas full employment and high demand are driving China’s labor costs up. Rapidly growing inflation will soon force the Chinese to allow their currency to appreciate. China is not prepared to handle hard economic times. The government has kept its tax rates very low by not providing social services. As inflation and unemployment rise, China’s economic miracle will be over.

( Nothing new info for many in BRFites except the comments on the article. One thing for sure, the economic rise of India will be much balanced and solid as well "interesting" )

[jagga]

I wont be surprised If the Bharamputra Dam project turn outs to be big water diversion project. Dont forget, China is the most deceptive country in the world. When it comes to deception even pakistanis come second to chinese. With pure's showing pakiness all the time atleast you can read/see whats going to come next. But with cheenis you end up getting backstabbed.
China makes it official, says we are damming the Brahmaputra

China has finally acknowledged that it is building a massive hydel power project on the Brahmaputra before the river enters India. The first of six power generating units of the 510 MW Zangmu hydel project will be commissioned by 2014.

Indian officials and experts, however, continue to be apprehensive about the project. The Chinese People’s Daily has reported that the dam’s “main function is power generation, but it can also be used for flood control and irrigation” — which, experts said, would require the diversion and storage of water.

“While power generation could either be a storage project or a run-of-the-river project, the flood control feature requires storage structures. And the irrigation feature would mean water would be diverted. These features are of concern to India,” said a senior official of the Ministry of Water Resources.

[RajeshA]

China makes it official, says we are damming the Brahmaputra

It is time for the Indian Subcontinent to take China down, collectively.

[Sanku]

India's potential for mischief in Tibet is immense, and this potential should not be bartered away at the negotiating table in lieu for some neutral Chinese stance on J&K, instead of its stance right now, which is heavily tilted towards Pakistan.

Strongly agree with this perspective, in fact the issue of J&K meddling should be dealt with at the level of denying Visa's to MAINLAND Han Yangtze Chinese (or granting them on a stapled paper as not from Taiwan) or some such humiliating measure.

The message has to be that J&K == Costal China.

No Tibet etc here.

[chaanakya]

I wont be surprised If the Bharamputra Dam project turn outs to be big water diversion project.

It's not a question of " if " as China has already decided to divert the waters , its only a question of when and that what we are going to do about it. In another thread this is being discussed.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 26#p879426

[Prem]

http://www.ditii.com/2010/11/18/u-s-bas ... 8-minutes/
U.S. Based Internet Traffic Redirected to China for 18 Minutes
Researchers at McAfee this week revealed that a major portion of the world's Internet traffic was redirected to China's primary telecommunications carrier for a period of about 18 minutes earlier this year.

At 15:54 GMT on April 8, 2010, McAfee detected a routing announcement from China's state-controlled telecom company, China Telecom, which advertised 15% of the world's Internet routes. For at least the next 18 minutes, up until China Telecom withdrew the announcement, a significant portion of the world's Internet traffic was redirected through China to reach its final destination.This included data from U.S. military and government networks, civilian organizations and U.S. allies such as South Korea, India and Australia. Commercial companies were also affected.
The incident took advantage of the vulnerabilities in the design of Internet's fundamental building blocks, namely its routing protocols, -- vulnerabilities that were present in April and remain present today. Not only can this problem happen again, but it probably will. We've no way of knowing whether this event was done with malicious intent in mind or was an accidental failure as China Telecom operators have suggested, but it's clear that with this capability demonstrated publicly, sooner or later someone will use it for nefarious purposes

[Prem]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45334.html

The majority of Americans view China's growing influence in the global market as a threat to the United States, according to a new poll conducted by CNN/Opinion Research.Fifty-eight percent of Americans said China's "wealth and economic power" is a threat to the U.S., an uptick of 15 points over the past 13 years. Additionally, nearly half of those polled believe that China is an "economic and military superpower," with another 42 percent responding that they expected China to be one eventually.

[Cosmo_R]

I believe GD AKA Singha, had commented on this a few years ago. IIRC, he said the vast majority of the water coursing through the Brahmaputra was rainfall driven and within Indian territory.

My recollection may be faulty. But can anyone confirm this? If true, upstream damming means little.

[Prem]

Cosmo sir ,
I have the same inpression but can we use the excuse to screw their Munna by demanding change in water treaty.

[Prem]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 00556.html

ZHUHAI, China—China is ramping up production of unmanned aerial vehicles in an apparent bid to catch up with the U.S. and Israel in developing technology that is considered the future of military aviation.Western defense officials and experts were surprised to see more than 25 different Chinese models of the unmanned aircraft, known as UAVs, on display at this week's Zhuhai air show in this southern Chinese city. It was a record number for a country that only unveiled its first concept UAVs at the same air show four years ago, and put a handful on display at the last one in 2008.
The apparent progress in UAVs is a stark sign of China's ambition to upgrade its massive military as its global political and economic clout grows. The U.S. and Israel are the currently the world leaders in developing such pilotless drones, which have played a major role in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and which analysts say could one day replace the fighter jet.This year's models in Zhuhai included several designed to fire missiles, and one powered by a jet engine, meaning it could—in theory—fly faster than the propeller-powered Predator and Reaper drones that the U.S. has used in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

[Prem]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... bargo.html

Japans warns West against lifting China arms embargo
Japan issued a warning over a Chinese campaign for a Western arms embargo to be lifted after a new report showed China possessed the capability to "knock out" five of the six US airbases in East Asia.
Japan has objected to a Chinese campaign for a Western arms embargo to be lifted after a report showed China had enough weapons to "knock out" five of the six American airbases in East Asia. Ending the embargo, put in place after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, would be dangerous, Japanese officials said.
The report by The United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission said China's improved military technology posed a significant threat to US forces based in Asia.Since 2000, the [Chinese] air force has increased its number of fourth generation combat fighters by over 500 per cent," said Carolyn Bartholomew, the vice-chairman of the commission. "China's conventional missile capabilities alone may be sufficient to temporarily knock out five of the six US airbases in East Asia. Missile strikes could destroy US air defences, runways, parked aircraft and fuel and maintenance facilities." Japan opposes proposals to lift the joint US and European Union arms embargo.

[Pratyush]

Cosmo sir ,
I have the same inpression but can we use the excuse to screw their Munna by demanding change in water treaty.

Using obama speak, ues we can. But we will not is a seperate issue.

Any reduction in the flow of water, will create enrmous stress in the river system. Add to that the political volatility in BD. You has a stage set for major conflagration between India and BD. Simply because the current regime will not be arround forever. The sucessors will be anti India and will blame India for water woes inflicted by big bad hindu India.

India must make the PRC stop this madness.

[chaanakya]

I believe GD AKA Singha, had commented on this a few years ago. IIRC, he said the vast majority of the water coursing through the Brahmaputra was rainfall driven and within Indian territory.

My recollection may be faulty. But can anyone confirm this? If true, upstream damming means little.

Refer to this
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 98#p861898

[Christopher Sidor]

China makes it official, says we are damming the Brahmaputra

It is time for the Indian Subcontinent to take China down, collectively.

The main concern would be for Bangladesh and not India. India due to its size and might will be able to handle it. I wonder what will be Bangladesh's reaction?

[ramana]

I would like some pointers to books on history of China from the 17th century. Please post any book recommendations.

[shiv]

I believe GD AKA Singha, had commented on this a few years ago. IIRC, he said the vast majority of the water coursing through the Brahmaputra was rainfall driven and within Indian territory.

My recollection may be faulty. But can anyone confirm this? If true, upstream damming means little.

Any map or Googal for tributaries of Brahmaputra will show you that this appears to be the case. A couple of tributaries arise in Bhutan. However I was able to find no hydrological data on water flow.

Having said that Bangladesh may be affected more as silting will increase as flow slows leading to floods when flow increases. Just like Pacquistan. Bangladesh is as involved in this as India but they may want to do their scams and have their own spectrum Rajas who will sell a whole spectrum of rights in Chittagong harbor to the Chinese. India however is actually in the best position to help Bangladesh and if they choose to ignore India concerns, India too will have a few games to play.

[Prem]

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article ... _Submarine
Glenn Beck: China Launched a 'Two-Stage Missile' Off California From a Submarine
Glenn Beck, sounding more and more like a hyper-paranoid Alex Jones, says China launched a “two-stage missile” off the California coast from a submarine to intimidate the US, and ‘what they’re telling you on television is bull crap’. He knows this because he “knows an awful lot of people in the military.”

[shiv]

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article ... _Submarine
Glenn Beck: China Launched a 'Two-Stage Missile' Off California From a Submarine
Glenn Beck, sounding more and more like a hyper-paranoid Alex Jones, says China launched a “two-stage missile” off the California coast from a submarine to intimidate the US, and ‘what they’re telling you on television is bull crap’. He knows this because he “knows an awful lot of people in the military.”

To me this act of "intimidation" sounds like unzipping and pulling out your willy in front of a women's college and waving it about. It serves no earthly purpose.

[Cosmo_R]

I believe GD AKA Singha, had commented on this a few years ago. IIRC, he said the vast majority of the water coursing through the Brahmaputra was rainfall driven and within Indian territory.

My recollection may be faulty. But can anyone confirm this? If true, upstream damming means little.

Any map or Googal for tributaries of Brahmaputra will show you that this appears to be the case. A couple of tributaries arise in Bhutan. However I was able to find no hydrological data on water flow.

Having said that Bangladesh may be affected more as silting will increase as flow slows leading to floods when flow increases. Just like Pacquistan. Bangladesh is as involved in this as India but they may want to do their scams and have their own spectrum Rajas who will sell a whole spectrum of rights in Chittagong harbor to the Chinese. India however is actually in the best position to help Bangladesh and if they choose to ignore India concerns, India too will have a few games to play.

Also @Chaanakya. Re BD, the Chinese plan would seem then to be a propaganda boon for India to turn those guys against China. Any water flow reduction thereafter would be laid at their door. A preemptive strike repeated over and over will stick. NGOs can be organized in BD to stage dharnas at the PRC embassy in Dhaka.

What we need is our own Glenn Beck to start spreading FUD in BD.

[Cosmo_R]

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article ... _Submarine
Glenn Beck: China Launched a 'Two-Stage Missile' Off California From a Submarine
Glenn Beck, sounding more and more like a hyper-paranoid Alex Jones, says China launched a “two-stage missile” off the California coast from a submarine to intimidate the US, and ‘what they’re telling you on television is bull crap’. He knows this because he “knows an awful lot of people in the military.”

To me this act of "intimidation" sounds like unzipping and pulling out your willy in front of a women's college and waving it about. It serves no earthly purpose.

Those immortal lines come to mind: "If you wave it, they will come."

[Prem]

GB can be a useful idiot to manage Chinese shenanigans. This is the era of economic warfare in which every stinker has its own potential to create Paki level nuisance .

[Prem]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... #printMode
In China's Orbit

We are the masters now." That was certainly the refrain that I kept hearing in my head when I was in China two weeks ago. It wasn't so much the glitzy, Olympic-quality party I attended in the Tai Miao Temple, next to the Forbidden City, that made this impression. The displays of bell ringing, martial arts and all-girl drumming are the kind of thing that Western visitors expect. It was the understated but unmistakable self-confidence of the economists I met that told me something had changed in relations between China and the West.
One of them, Cheng Siwei, explained over dinner China's plan to become a leader in green energy technology. Between swigs of rice wine, Xia Bin, an adviser to the People's Bank of China, outlined the need for a thorough privatization program, "including even the Great Hall of the People." And in faultless English, David Li of Tsinghua University confessed his dissatisfaction with the quality of Chinese Ph.D.s.
You could not ask for smarter people with whom to discuss the two most interesting questions in economic history today: Why did the West come to dominate not only China but the rest of the world in the five centuries after the Forbidden City was built? And is that period of Western dominance now finally coming to an end? In a brilliant paper that has yet to be published in English, Mr. Li and his co-author Guan Hanhui demolish the fashionable view that China was economically neck-and-neck with the West until as recently as 1800. Per capita gross domestic product, they show, stagnated in the Ming era (1402-1626) and was significantly lower than that of pre-industrial Britain. China still had an overwhelmingly agricultural economy, with low-productivity cultivation accounting for 90% of GDP. And for a century after 1520, the Chinese national savings rate was actually negative. There was no capital accumulation in late Ming China; rather the opposite.

The Chinese are justifiably nervous, however, about the vagaries of world commodity prices. How could they feel otherwise after the huge price swings of the past few years? So it makes sense for them to invest abroad more. In January 2010 alone, the Chinese made direct investments worth a total of $2.4 billion in 420 overseas enterprises in 75 countries and regions. The overwhelming majority of these were in Asia and Africa. The biggest sectors were mining, transportation and petrochemicals. Across Africa, the Chinese mode of operation is now well established. Typical deals exchange highway and other infrastructure investments for long leases of mines or agricultural land, with no questions asked about human rights abuses or political corruption.
Growing overseas investment in natural resources not only makes sense as a diversification strategy to reduce China's exposure to the risk of dollar depreciation. It also allows China to increase its financial power, not least through its vast and influential sovereign wealth fund. And it justifies ambitious plans for naval expansion. In the words of Rear Admiral Zhang Huachen, deputy commander of the East Sea Fleet: "With the expansion of the country's economic interests, the navy wants to better protect the country's transportation routes and the safety of our major sea-lanes." The South China Sea has already been declared a "core national interest," and deep-water ports are projected in Pakistan, Burma and Sri Lanka.

[Prem]

Interesting graph in above link.
Race is between China, India and US and Yindic must prove their mettle over all others.

[krisna]

The NOKO SOKO crisis-
this is more of a shadow boxing between the dragon and uncle thru their proxies.
Here the Uncle is on the defensive as dragon has made lot of moves in the region challenging it deftly. It has claimed all of the region as its own, threatened the smaller neighbours. This has led to the scrambling of uncle to asauge the smaller ones through its defensive manoeuvrings, (also including India in it.)
Dragon
For dragon it is a case of pushing its tentacles to see the red line which will draw the uncle out of its shell.
Later dragon will withdraw (thru proxy)and say it is peace onlee.

Uncle
If uncle has to maintain its relevance it should show and act as the BOSS of the region who calls the shots and not dragon.
Also with wars in Afpak and Iraq not exactly to their liking , this might have a better success rate as soko will be their to mop up rather than uncle if things end up in war.(unlike eyerak and afpak).
what about reelection bid and more orders for super duper weapons as it happened after the first gulf war, stimulate economy.
East asian region
If uncle does not show something substantial and succeed it will send shivers down the smaller neighbours. Japan soko and others will keenly watch this developments. If uncle fails it will be disastrous for these economies as dragon will be emboldened by these (mis)adventures.
Nothing succeeds like succeeds.
let the games continue.


The dragon will not push Noko too hard because if Noko unravels and 2 koreas unite it will be the biggest loser in the bargain.

[Pulikeshi]

The CPC has issued japhads to Japan and Korea (s) now. Who is next?

Obama's trip included India, Indonesia, Korea, Japan.
Chinese have achieved 50% coverage already...

[Prem]

Lets wait till Chinese Premier's visit over next month . Last time they started on Diwali and this time may be on Christmas or New year.

[RajeshA]

East asian region
If uncle does not show something substantial and succeed it will send shivers down the smaller neighbours. Japan soko and others will keenly watch this developments. If uncle fails it will be disastrous for these economies as dragon will be emboldened by these (mis)adventures.

Actually China is creating scenarios where USA needs to show its military prowess, however USA is hesitant as its involvement could lead to all-out war and also major destruction in the lands of its allies. May be some in the allied countries would see it as cowardice or calculation on the part of USA, others would understand the implications of involvement. Other countries which are not involved in the flare-up, they would draw their own consequences.

The reason China seems so overwhelming in relation to its other neighbors Japan and South Korea is because they are junior partners to USA. Should these countries lose faith in USA, then these countries would start militarizing like hell, and then China would really be in a mess.

So such misadventures may not really play to China's tune. Japan and South Korea can decide to go nuclear. This may not be to China's liking.

So the more China pricks these countries the better it is for India, because the more would Japan and South Korea militarize and the more would they move into an alliance with India.

May be America loses, but China does not win.

[DavidD]

East asian region
If uncle does not show something substantial and succeed it will send shivers down the smaller neighbours. Japan soko and others will keenly watch this developments. If uncle fails it will be disastrous for these economies as dragon will be emboldened by these (mis)adventures.

Actually China is creating scenarios where USA needs to show its military prowess, however USA is hesitant as its involvement could lead to all-out war and also major destruction in the lands of its allies. May be some in the allied countries would see it as cowardice or calculation on the part of USA, others would understand the implications of involvement. Other countries which are not involved in the flare-up, they would draw their own consequences.

The reason China seems so overwhelming in relation to its other neighbors Japan and South Korea is because they are junior partners to USA. Should these countries lose faith in USA, then these countries would start militarizing like hell, and then China would really be in a mess.

So such misadventures may not really play to China's tune. Japan and South Korea can decide to go nuclear. This may not be to China's liking.

So the more China pricks these countries the better it is for India, because the more would Japan and South Korea militarize and the more would they move into an alliance with India.

May be America loses, but China does not win.

So in your opinion, what should China do to achieve its goal of Asia hegemony?

[Pulikeshi]

So in your opinion, what should China do to achieve its goal of Asia hegemony?

China can do whatever it wants, it is a very powerful country.
What is the history of Brihat-Asia (Eurasia)?
Has there ever been a hemispheric hegemonic power in Brihat-Asia?
Who is China going to colonize, extract resources and finance the deal?

Have you stared at a map of earth to see what Asia means?

[DavidD]

So in your opinion, what should China do to achieve its goal of Asia hegemony?

China can do whatever it wants, it is a very powerful country.
What is the history of Brihat-Asia (Eurasia)?
Has there ever been a hemispheric hegemonic power in Brihat-Asia?

Have you stared at a map of earth to see what Asia means?

Well, the Mongols came pretty close, and before the U.S. there wasn't a global hegemon either. But I suppose the first step would be achieving East-Asia hegemony, which China has achieved many times before. What do you suppose China should do to obtain that?

[Pulikeshi]

[
What do you suppose China should do to obtain that?

If you peek at the Mongol, Indian, Greek, Persian, Mughal, British, etc. experiences,
then you will notice what China has and what is missing.
So, you tell us how Chinese hegemony will come about and what it means for Asia.

All said, who am I to advice China, it can already obtain whatever it wants.
I plan to establish hegemony over the turkey in my oven

[brihaspati]

Since "China" has achieved hegemony many times in "East-Asia" in the past - surely it knows how to do it again! Why ask? Is the fantasy-virtual reality gaming taking off in China now in a big way? then such fervour about fantastic and mythic East Asian hegemony could drive the sales of such games!

[Pulikeshi]

^ East Asia Video Game Company!

[brihaspati]

The Han World Conquest Game for adolescent Hans. Based on a new alternative history of the middle earth. Who will score the music? What are the alternative endings? that could be a problem, if every game line always had to end in a Han world conquest - there would be no fun in it - and nothing for the adolescent Han to do in the game!

[brihaspati]

Apart from some mythical claims of tribute from the mythical Japanese - the Chinese never really had any political or military hegemony over the Japanese home islands. In fact the Japanese played around with the Korean peninsula and Manchuria a long time before the modern period.

If any claims of influence can be made - that was so unfortunately in "cultural elements", and that too primarily in the transmission of Buddhism - an ideology ultimately borrowed from India and not Hannic.

So if the mythical China of the past did not have military possession or occupation of the Japanese islands - this must imply that the mythical Chinese "East Asia" does not contain Japan.

[DavidD]

So basically, none of you guys have any idea, but whatever China is doing right now must not be it, right?

[shyam]

If any claims of influence can be made - that was so unfortunately in "cultural elements", and that too primarily in the transmission of Buddhism - an ideology ultimately borrowed from India and not Hannic.

This is interesting... Japanese did not borrow Confucianism or Taoism from China. Rather they borrowed Buddhism.

[brihaspati]

DavidD wrote
So basically, none of you guys have any idea, but whatever China is doing right now must not be it, right?

What is China doing right now exactly? Apart from making the tiniest of nations around its periphery sit up and think of defending themselves from a big bad robber!

Basically why should we even try to form ideas about how China should go about establishing its hegemony - since such an establishment is not possible! Moreover some of us think that the myth of China as a single nation is a recent invention - it was an empire for certain periods of time but never really a nation. Its artificiality forces it to paranoidly try to conquer neighbours or other cultures to militarily hold on to territory. Because it never really had any overwhelming or profound sense of culture as a basis of nationhood, it always relies on aggressive military posturing to claim sovereignty.

If "China" as a nation never existed, its claims of "Chinese hegemony" never really happened. At most Buddhist influence - but then again transmitted from India.

[Pulikeshi]

So basically, none of you guys have any idea, but whatever China is doing right now must not be it, right?

Now that the giving thanks turkey is swaha! burp!

Not sure what China is doing. What does hegemony of East Asia provide China?
China cannot wish away - Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, etc.
More profoundly, what is China? What is the future Asia China seeks to model?

Can Kungfu legends and 36 stratagems hold the idea, nay nation of China together?
In this idea and knowledge driven world, who is going to subscribe willingly?
What energy will need to be expended if it is done militaristic-ally, for what returns?
Can you explain why China needs to be a hegemon of East and/or Asia?