Geopolitical thread

[paramu]

PRC got UNSC seat only in 1971. Before that it was Republic of China (today known as Taiwan).

[ramana]

Looking at the GOAT from US prespective its clear that after FSU collapsed, the new enemy is the Islamic terrorist who like the Scarlet Pimpernal is everywhere and is ideological to boot. Roman Repbulic tranformed into an empire about 100 years after the defeat of Carthage. Wonder how did the Imperial Rome imagine/describe its Christian militants?

[Philip]

Remember the murder/poisoining of ex-KBG spy Litvinenko in London? Here is a startling accusation by the man accused of the deed (who denies it).

Alexander Litvinenko 'plotted British asylum scam' says murder suspect
Poisoned former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko plotted to set up a multi-million pound scam to help rich Russians win political asylum in Britain on false grounds, the chief suspect in Mr Litvinenko's own murder has claimed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... spect.html

[atma]

Pakistan says US backing India UNSC seat 'incomprehensible'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101110/wl ... 1110174948

[ramana]

^^^
Select excerpts of the Cabinet resoultion from TSP!

The Pakistani government on Wednesday condemned US backing for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council for arch-rival India as "incomprehensible".

A federal cabinet resolution "expressed its serious concern and strong disappointment on the decision of the United States to support a permanent seat for India on the UN Security Council," a foreign ministry statement said.

"It is incomprehensible that the US has sought to support India, whose credentials with respect to observing UN charter principles and international law are at best chequered," the resolution said.

........

The resolution passed by the cabinet at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, accused India of "disregard of Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir and gross and systematic violations of the fundamental human rights of the Kashmiri people".

.....
Pakistan said that the decision would undermine the UN system and also impact security in South Asia.

"This decision has grave ramifications for the direction and prospects of the system of multilateral cooperation as envisaged by the founding fathers of the UN Charter.

"It also has implications for peace and security and stability in Asia, particularly South Asia."

....

Wonder what their reaction is to PRC's moves in the same vein.

[svinayak]

Is another statement from Pakistan in the offing condemning permanent seat for China or Russia with alleged human rights abuses?

[RajeshA]

Tall mountains will crumble and deep oceans will boil and musharrafs will shut up resulting in explosive constipation!

[svinayak]

Musharraf: No rush against anti-India militants
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101110/wl ... VzaGFycmFm

[Prem]

Tall mountains will crumble and deep oceans will boil and musharrafs will shut up resulting in explosive constipation!

Well Chinese premier is gonna land in India on Dec 16 at 431P exactly. Are Poak puttars going to whine against their Chinese Abba?

[SwamyG]

However, all these countries have one thing in common. All are big bullies who can go to any length to pursue their interests and can make life difficult for a lot of other countries. By this definition, pakis deserve UNSC permanent membership more than 'Dharmic' India.

Exactly. India lacks the killer instinct or the ability to close things. Also, it means India will do x,y,z things but not a,b,c things to achieve its goals. India's GDP (PPP) is fourth in the World after USA, China and Japan. UK, France and Germany are behind. Like you rightly point out, geo-strategy and UK? Hello? Kazakhstan will play a far more important role than UK when it comes location. Pandavas would not have won for all their talent and dharma, if they did not have Krsna doing tricky and "adharmic" deeds for them.

[ramana]

SwamyG, While driving to work with my kid I told him the big lesson is that its all about power.

The whole story of history is about power: how it is gained and how it is lost. Sometimes it societies and other times its countries or groups of countries. They come up with ideas and ideologies to attain this power and often times it goes away in a blink with out the bearer not knowing it eg. the French Aristocracy. The French Revolution was really about getting the feudal age to end in France.
Another example is the FSU where the Orthodox Russians to jump ahead of feudalism adopted Communism and discarded it when it didnt suit their purpose. Or take for instance the founding fathers of US who adopted democracy etc to overthrow their English monarch. Or how they claimed manifest destiny to poach on the declining Spanish Empire in the Americas and even in Asia eg. Philipines.

Even Indian states accession was a step towards acquiring power by consolidating the landmass.

However suddenly Indian elite erased their minds and became naive and not comprehend that its all about power and get lost in the bushes forget the tree.

[svinayak]

Opinion
Time to be a better neighbor, India. If you don't, China will.
President Obama's trip to India underscored India's importance in global security and global finances – a democratic counter to an aggressive China. But India's poor foreign policy and botched regional relations have been holding it back.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opi ... China-will

By Maha Rafi Atal / November 9, 2010

New York
On Sunday, President Obama met with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi. They discussed opportunities for expanded Indo-American trade, and both leaders highlighted the strategic importance of a strong and prosperous India in the face of Chinese expansion. But Prime Minister Singh did not acknowledge, and President Obama did not bring up, the most important obstacle to India’s success: its poor regional relationships.

From the outset, India’s promise as a rival to China has been that it is a power apart. It could not beat Beijing in a race for pure growth or military might. But in a contest over principles, India’s democratic progress offers the region a model that China cannot match. India should be a partner for countries seeking a fair alternative to alliance with its authoritarian neighbor.

But India is losing this contest, and it is losing it close to home. Now, as President Obama leaves India, it is worth asking: Why isn’t South Asia’s richest country leading more effectively in South Asia?

China is flexing its muscle

China is certainly flexing its muscle. Last month, it sought to restrict exports of rare earth minerals to Japan, made overtures to a secession movement in southern Sudan, and wrestled with the G20 over its currency and trade imbalance.

Nowhere has China been more assertive than in South Asia. In a strategy it calls the “string of pearls,” China is building ports and infrastructure in Bangladesh and Pakistan; digging up minerals in Pakistan and Afghanistan; and refining hydropower in Nepal and Afghanistan.

According to the International Monetary Fund, China’s trade with India’s neighbors totaled $16 billion in 2008, growing at 14 percent annually. India’s regional trade was barely holding steady at $11 billion.

India's overconfidence

Yet China’s success in the Subcontinent reflects India’s own foreign policy blunders.

First, India has been overconfident, assuming that regional neighbors would naturally choose it over Beijing without providing them with positive incentives to do so. That is the case in Bangladesh, a desperately poor country created with the assistance of Indian forces, whose multiple requests for economic aid and greater bilateral trade India has rebuffed. While Bangladeshis wonder why India does not do more, India wonders why Bangladesh is not more appreciative.

Beijing capitalizes on the gap between them.

Interfering and overbearing

Second, India has been overbearing, giving selective support to political movements inside neighboring states.

In Nepal, India backed a feudal aristocracy for four decades, reinstating the monarchy by force after repeated popular revolts. It trained the Nepalese military, and orchestrated political marriages between Nepalese aristocrats and wealthy Indian families. Pushing India out became the top priority of the Maoist guerilla movement that has majority support and an informal alliance with China.

As the UN peace mission holding Nepal together prepares to close in January, India is pitted against China to control the postwar settlement, with Nepal’s critical water resources (about 83,000 megawatts of hydropower) at stake. The confrontation is reminiscent of the situation in Burma (Myanmar), where China and India spent $10 billion last year to secure the support of a military junta guilty of abusing its own subjects.

As the weaker power, India has more to fear from these confrontations.

Shutting out the region

Third, India has been suspicious, choosing to shut out the region when relations go sour rather than addressing underlying tensions.

Earlier this year, the government announced an immigration regime that will restrict multiple entry visas. Multinationals have protested the move as a blow to business travelers from the West and the Persian Gulf, but its greatest victims are migrant laborers from Bangladesh and Nepal. Many will turn to China for employment instead; others will enter illegally, bringing crime with them.

Nowhere has suspicion been more crippling to Indian policy than in the case of Pakistan. So long as Kashmiri militants – with historic ties to Pakistan – continue to operate inside India, India maintains it cannot meet with Pakistan over the disputed border, or over critical resources like water and gas. But it is the ongoing dispute that creates the very basis for this militancy. In a country with porous mountain borders, such threats are virtually impossible to block out by force.

Yet New Delhi means to try.

Unfortunately, the United States has been an accomplice to India’s regional isolationism. In 2008, pressure from Washington shut down a natural gas project involving India, Pakistan, and Iran. Last year, Present Obama briefly considered appointing Amb. Richard Holbrooke as a regional envoy, with the authority to conduct dialogue between India and Pakistan, but narrowed his brief to Afghanistan and Pakistan over Indian opposition.

Asked about Pakistan at a town hall meeting in New Delhi on Sunday, the president reiterated that the United States would not intervene in the Kashmir dispute. Yet without an Indo-Pak peace, no strategy for Afghanistan can move forward.

The trappings of global status, without the substance

The West has lavished India with the trappings of global status: a seat at the G20, a temporary seat at the UN Security Council that may open the door to a permanent one, a controversial US-India nuclear deal, and two pending defense trades worth more than $15 billion dollars.

To read Indian newspapers or speak to diplomats is to believe that these gestures represent global influence. But in fact, they signal the rise of a Potemkin hegemon. If India is encircled by China’s string of pearls, and if migrants and militants compromise its borders, then it will be forced to waste its economic resources putting out local fires, unable to project power further afield.

Moreover, as they watch this regional saga, potential partners in Africa, the Middle East, or Central Asia see India as a country that treats its neighbors with contempt. Indian leaders can argue that other great powers have done the same, but the argument misunderstands the very nature and purpose of India’s rise, the unique role that ideals must play in India’s success.
author is making bogus arguments

To be sure there are steps India can take to reverse this course. If it accepts international mediation in Kashmir, if it becomes a neutral partner for peace in Burma and Nepal, and if it opens its markets to greater regional trade, it may yet salvage its position as the democratic counter-power to China. But these are long-term solutions, and the window to pursue them is shrinking.

Maha Rafi Atal is a journalist in New York, recently returned from India, Pakistan, and Nepal where she was a correspondent for the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

[Prem]

N. Korea ( actually China) linked to covert missile, nuke trade

A report by the U.N. Security Council made public Wednesday states that North Korea is linked to covert shipments of banned nuclear technology and missiles to Iran, Syria and Burma.
A panel of experts produced the report after monitoring compliance with U.N. sanctions imposed on Pyongyang after its nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.Based on International Atomic Energy Agency and government assessments, the report concludes that North Korea "has continued to provide missiles, components, and technology to certain countries including Iran and Syria since the imposition of these measures."In Burma, suspicious nuclear activities were linked to North Korea's Namchongang Trading and the arrests in Japan of three people who tried to illegally export a magnetometer to Burma through Malaysia.
Magnetometers can be used to produce ring magnets, a key element of in centrifuges that are the basis of nuclear arms programs in Iran and Pakistan.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... uke-trade/

[RajeshA]

Published on Nov 13, 2010
By Spencer Kimball
Russia juggles its growing partnerships with the West and China: Deutsche Welle

"President Medvedev knows that the modernization of the economy and Russian society cannot be executed without cooperation with the West," Alexander Rahr, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle.

He said US President Obama didn't want to pursue a policy of containment against Russia.

"He needs Russia in the fight against international terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq, and he needs Russian support to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program," Rahr said.

As Russian and western interests align, both sides have hinted at moving beyond a quid-pro-quo relationship and bringing Moscow into a deeper security partnership. In the lead up to the NATO summit later this month in Lisbon, Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has pushed the idea of including Russia in a missile defense shield that would stretch from Vancouver to Vladivostok.

"What Russia and other countries in Europe and North America need to work toward is a Euro-Atlantic security community," Trenin said. "We're not talking about alliances. We're not talking about Russia joining NATO. We're not talking about simply more of the same upgrades of Russia's relations with NATO. What we should be working toward is a state of play in the Euro-Atlantic area where war would not be an instrument of policy."

"China is second only to the US in terms of countries that weigh in on the Russian strategic mind," Trenin said. "It is immensely important."

China's meteoric growth has made it the world's largest energy consumer. Russia in turn is one of the world's largest energy producers and is therefore well-positioned to fuel China's economy.

Yet like Russia's relationship with the West, its growing ties with China face challenges.

"There has always been this certain degree of unease despite all the happy talk and positive rhetoric of Russia and China," Kuchins said. China's rapid growth made the Russians nervous, he said.

"The impact of the (economic) crisis was sort of an acceleration of that trend," Kuchins said. "It leads them to question just how much the growth of Chinese power is good for Russian interests."

[Johann]

Yes. The reason which was stated many times was they didnt want to foster enemity with PRC which is what it would have done. In the end the US saw the Indian POV and itself offered the seat to PRC to get them ontheir side in the Cold War. So in the end it was an Indian idea tha the US implemented.

BTW that PRC views India as an enemy is a given and did not affect the UNSC decison.

The PRC has at all times been the one who as acted, while the US and India have merely reacted.

- Mao chose to pursue and escalate strategic confrontation with both the US and India in the 1950s, despite American strength in Asia, and the promise of Indian friendship. They could take this kind of two-front risk only as long as Soviet support was secure.

- Mao chose to stop pursuing strategic confrontation with the US and offer instead alliance in 1969 after the Soviets began a troop build-up in the Far East on the scale of Central Europe, 'corrected' the communist party of Czechoslovakia and announced the Brezhnev Doctrine. In the Chinese view the Americans were the only ones who could deter the Soviets, and so Beijing made an offer that Washington couldn't refuse.

It's certainly possible that CPC under some set of circumstances *would* chose strategic alignment with India, but it would have to be under tremendous pressure from other directions, and it would depend on India's capacity to deter other players.

Sino-Russian relations will play a critical role I think in determining which players the PRC choses to confront, and which ones it conciliates with. Moscow's hand in dealing with the CPC was weak in the 1980s, and its even weaker now.

[ramana]

We are Indians onlee. We dont rush in even when its sure thing! In fact this is what saved many from the sub-prime crisis.

[Johann]

Ramana,

I believe India's strategic caution has much to do with the lessons from 1962, and its recognition of the challenge of managing two different fronts.

It has managed to avoid dealing with direct confrontations China and Pakistan at the same time, and its benefited from that.

As I've said earlier Pakistan's self destructive path in supporting the global jihad has if anything relieved pressure on India's western flank, and the Chinese are going to have to deal with a stronger, freer, and better internationally networked India.

[ramana]

I believe that Operation Parakaram, during which India mobilised despite the US presence in TSP and the nukes in TSP, acted as a breakwater that deflected the jiahdi/terrorist wave back into TSP and we see the outcome now after ~ 8-10 years. What it did was, force the US to make TSP reduce its activities, below a certain threshold levels. And that is what is forcing/driving the festivities in TSP. The monster is consuming its own creator.

As for PRC its a matter of time for its own inconsistencies to come to surface.

[Prem]

http://www.cfr.org/publication/23481/do ... ummit.html
Domestic Politics and NATO's 'Sensible' Summit

Looking ahead, NATO's European members will struggle to maintain adequate force levels in the face of economic austerity. Only time will tell whether NATO and Afghan forces succeed in turning the tide against the Taliban and extremist insurgents in Afghanistan and whether the plan for cooperation with Russia develops into a program that anchors Russia within the Euro-Atlantic community.
In the current period of economic constraint and political polarization, NATO's evolution depends heavily on the trajectory of domestic politics in NATO members. Some members are under pressure to quit the mission in Afghanistan; the Dutch have already left and the Canadians are scheduled to depart next year. Russia's relationship with NATO will in part ride on the prospects for ratification of the New START Treaty in the United States, though at this point it remains uncertain whether the Senate will move ahead--either during the current lame-duck period or after the new Congress is in session.

[AKalam]

From gora perspective, the mother is Europe, no matter where the Europeans go, out West to North America or East to Siberia or down under to Oceania, all must come together under a future mother Europa, for the time being led by a dynamic Uncle Sam, to protect the planetary spoils from the colored barbarian natives at the border, whether they are Latino Mestizo's, global economic migrants, Siberian natives or a resurgent Han Chinese. It only helps that all gora's are under a specific Abrahamic ideology, the different sects are part of the bigger family tree onlee. None other than Zbig's books and articles ooze this sentiment and perhaps it is not so far fetched. So internal consolidation within the family and external division to keep them outsiders weak, that is the preferred strategy to follow. PRC reverse engineers gora technology and follows the same perhaps for geopolitics as well.

[Prem]

'It's time NATO stepped-up contacts with India'

Days after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization concluded a major summit in Lisbon intended to update its mission and methods to keep up with changing times, Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen called for stepped-up contacts with India. In an exclusive interview with Business Standard, Rasmussen insisted that the military alliance's relations with close ally Pakistan would not be developed at the expense of India, while lamenting the fact that despite an array of shared interests, there was virtually no formal contact between Nato and New Delhi.The secretary general identified three main arguments for a "stronger relationship" with India.

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 101124.htm

[Prem]

Russia and China Will “Never Become Each Other’s Enemy”
http://noisyroom.net/blog/2010/11/24/ru ... ers-enemy/

Petersburg, Russia – China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.“About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities.The yuan has now started trading against the Russian rouble in the Chinese interbank market, while the renminbi will soon be allowed to trade against the rouble in Russia, Putin said.“That has forged an important step in bilateral trade and it is a result of the consolidated financial systems of world countries,” he said.Putin made his remarks after a meeting with Wen. They also officiated at a signing ceremony for 12 documents, including energy cooperation.The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communique.Putin said one of the pacts between the two countries is about the purchase of two nuclear reactors from Russia by China’s Tianwan nuclear power plant, the most advanced nuclear power complex in China.Wen said at the press conference that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow has “reached an unprecedented level” and pledged the two countries will “never become each other’s enemy.”Over the past year, “our strategic cooperative partnership endured strenuous tests and reached an unprecedented level,” Wen said, adding the two nations are now more confident and determined to defend their mutual interests.“China will firmly follow the path of peaceful development and support the renaissance of Russia as a great power,” he said.“The modernization of China will not affect other countries’ interests, while a solid and strong Sino-Russian relationship is in line with the fundamental interests of both countries.”Wen said Beijing is willing to boost cooperation with Moscow in Northeast Asia, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in major international organizations and on mechanisms in pursuit of a “fair and reasonable new order” in international politics and the economy

[Philip]

Two "Queens",and I'm not referring to those with alternative interests,are visiting the Gulf,indicating the enormous importance being given to it.The first,the Indian pres.,Pratibha Patil,is right now on a visit to several Gulf/ME nations to further India's interests with the region coinciding with a royal visit to the region by Britain's Queen Elizabeth-II,whose visit is also being described as a "foreign policy change" ,so as to seal a "strategic" relationship with the states of the region.It is most interesting to see both India and Britain following a similar course and furthering this diplomatic initiative,Britain is sending a v.high-powered delegation to India including its Def.Sec. Liam Fox,who will be keen to firm up sales of Typhoons for the MMRCA deal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -East.html

British foreign policy to change reflecting Arab concerns on Middle East

British foreign policy will change to reflect Arab concerns over the Middle East peace process as part of the Coalition's efforts to seal a strategic agreement with the Gulf during the Queen's visit to the region.
Britain and business in the UAE

Whitehall officials said Foreign Secretary William Hague's decision to reach out to Gulf states in an effort to secure better diplomatic and trade ties meant Britain had to "take on board" Arab foreign policy goals.

Requesting better ties would be a two-way street, not just plea for more defence contracts and exports, they said.

"It will be a six lane highway with movement in both directions," said one diplomat. "We have to respond to what Gulf States want. If we want a long-term partnership on foreign policy, then changes in our stance have to be part of it."

The Queen arrived in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, at the start of a five-day visit that will also take in Oman.

Both countries are long-standing allies, where the royal family also has strong personal ties with local leaders. The United Arab Emirates end of the visit was rearranged after a planned tour last year was cancelled at the last minute.

The visit to Oman is to join the celebrations for the 40th anniversary of Sultan Qaboos's ascension to the throne.

But the visit has taken on a more significant, and unusually political context both with the change of government in Britain and increasing tensions with Iran a short distance away on the other side of the Gulf.

Mr Hague set improving relations with the Gulf and India as his first policy goals, and both David Cameron, the prime minister, and Liam Fox, the defence secretary, visited Abu Dhabi within a month of taking office.

Iran has threatened to retaliate against western interests in the Gulf in the event of a western-led air strike against sites associated with its nuclear programme. With 100,000 British residents of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the other emirates alone, and a strong British and American military presence, the MoD regards a joint approach with the UAE as vital.

To underline the point, the Queen and Prince Philip will watch a fly-past today (Thursday) of Mirage and F16 fighter jets from the UAE Air Force, joined by four RAF Typhoons. The event is ceremonial, to mark the Queen's first visit to the country since 1979, but the Typhoons will be staying on next week along with elements of the Royal Navy for a joint Air Defence drill in the Gulf, which Tehran will be watching closely.

Officials in both Abu Dhabi and London make no bones about stressing the significance of the defence relationship as the West and its regional allies gear up to a possible confrontation with Iran.

That may mean yet further withdrawal of traditional British support for Israel, with criticism of its government already more marked under Mr Hague than it was under New Labour government.

In another indication of the Foreign Office's new sensitivity to Arab opinion, officials admitted to The Daily Telegraph that policies on the Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, Israel's invasion of Gaza in 2008-9, and its occupation of the West Bank and settlements policy were "motivators" for the Islamic radicalism that they confronted daily in the Gulf.

[Prem]

Russian Missiles Fuel U.S. Worries
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 70200.html

The U.S. believes Russia has moved short-range tactical nuclear warheads to facilities near North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies as recently as this spring, U.S. officials say, adding to questions in Congress about Russian compliance with long-standing pledges ahead of a possible vote on a new arms-control treaty.
The U.S. believes Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons closer to its border with NATO countries in Europe, adding a hurdle to President Obama's efforts to get the new START treaty ratified. Adam Entous discusses. Also, Aaron Lucchetti discusses a new report saying Wall Street pay practices are now worse off and less performance-based than before the financial crisis.U.S. officials say the movement of warheads to facilities bordering NATO allies appeared to run counter to pledges made by Moscow starting in 1991 to pull tactical nuclear weapons back from frontier posts and to reduce their numbers. The U.S. has long voiced concerns about Russia's lack of transparency when it comes to its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons, believed to be many times the number possessed by the U.S.
Russia's movement of the ground-based tactical weapons appeared to coincide with the deployment of U.S. and NATO missile-defense installations in countries bordering Russia. Moscow has long considered the U.S. missile defense buildup in Europe a challenge to Russian power, underlining deep-seated mistrust between U.S. and Russian armed forces despite improved relations between political leaders.The Kremlin had no immediate comment.

[abhishek_sharma]

Top 100 Global Thinkers

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... l_thinkers

[Philip]

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/postin ... f=3&t=5691

New Cold War in the offing?

Dmitry Medvedev warns of Cold War-style arms race
Dmitry Medvedev has warned the world will be plunged into a new Cold War-style arms race within a decade unless Moscow and the West can strike a deal on a new missile defence system.

Xcpt:

By Andrew Osborn in Moscow 5:21PM GMT 30 Nov 2010
Mr Medvedev, the Russian president, who was giving his annual state-of-the-nation speech in the Kremlin, issued the stark warning in an apparent attempt to strong-arm Nato into caving in on the sensitive issue.

He is reported to have presented his own blueprint for a joint Nato-Russia missile defence shield at the Nato summit in Lisbon earlier this month but to have got only a lukewarm response.

Analysts said his blunt message to the West on Tuesday appeared to be: embrace us as a fully-fledged partner or have us as a potential foe.

Related Articles

"In the coming 10 years, we are facing the following alternative," he told an audience of Russia's top decision makers including Vladimir Putin, the prime minister.

"Either we agree on anti-missile defence and opt for fully-fledged joint co-operation, or – if we fail to get constructive co-operation – (we will face) a new round of the arms race."

To stormy applause Mr Medvedev warned that Russia would be forced to start thinking about where to deploy "new offensive weapons" if there was no agreement with Nato, raising the spectre of the Kremlin pumping billions more into a new nuclear weapons programme. Such a scenario would be "very grave," he noted.

Though he made it clear his preferred option would be to cut a deal with Nato, his outburst is unlikely to win him many friends in the 28-member military alliance. Whilst Nato has made it clear it is keen to co-operate more closely with Russia, it has not so far given any indication that it is ready to integrate its defence architecture with Russia's as fully or as quickly as Mr Medvedev seems to want.

His tough talk appeared to reflect growing Russian anxiety that a landmark US-Russia nuclear arms reduction pact known as the new START will be scuttled by newly emboldened Republicans in the US Senate.

A close aide to Mr Medvedev said after his speech that if START faltered it would "mean nothing good."

Separately, reports on Tuesday that Russia had moved tactical nuclear weapons up to Nato member states' borders as recently as this spring were seized upon by opponents of the treaty who said the move showed that Russia could not be trusted. The Kremlin declined to confirm or deny the claims which had purportedly originated in a US intelligence report.

Mr Medvedev's arms race warning came in an otherwise lacklustre speech. He pointedly said nothing of substance about his own future or Russian politics, stoking speculation that he will hand the presidency back to Mr Putin in 2012.

Mr Putin has said the two men will decide which of them will run for president nearer the time depending on the country's economic and political

situation. With his political future so uncertain, Mr Medvedev has therefore tried to avoid looking like a lame duck president. But analysts said his speech on Tuesday looked like that of a man winding down politically rather than someone who was actively staking a claim for a new mandate. Mr Putin is expected to upstage Mr Medvedev later this week when he gives a long interview to CNN's veteran broadcaster Larry King.

[Philip]

'Battle of the Begums' brings Bangladesh to a standstill
By Andrew Buncombe in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/postin ... f=1&t=3850

[Philip]

Scandal Swedish style!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Nazis.html

Swedish queen's family 'made fortune from Jewish factory seized by Nazis'
Sweden's royal family has been rocked by allegations that the father of Queen Silvia made a fortune from a factory seized from Jewish owners in Nazi Germany.
Her husband King Carl XVI Gustaf was recently exposed in a book over a secret affair he had with a pop singer.

[kmkraoind]

China issues warning over US-S.Korea-Japan talks

China, under pressure to bring its ally to heel, proposed to hold multilateral talks in Beijing in early December.

But that was rejected by the United States, South Korea and Japan, which will meet themselves in Washington on Monday.

"We'll keep a close watch on this meeting," Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said in a statement issued late Thursday.

[Philip]

Scandalous tale of Berlusconi's buxom Bulgarian babe..Phew!!!

Berlusconi government 'brought Bulgarian actress to Venice Film Festival for £336,000
Silvio Berlusconi is facing allegations that his government misused 400,000 euros (£336,000) of taxpayers' money to bring a glamorous Bulgarian actress to this year's Venice Film Festival.

The Italian court of auditors has opened an investigation into claims that the actress, Michelle Bonev, a personal friend of Mr Berlusconi, was flown from Sofia to Venice in September along with an entourage of 32 staff.

She was presented with a special award honouring her supposed contribution to women's rights but the Italian press has claimed that it was created as a one-off, exclusively for her, after Mr Berlusconi insisted that she be given "some kind of award".

A row has now broken out between Bulgaria and Italy, after Vejdi Rashidov, Bulgaria's culture minister, insisted that the trip was paid for by Italy.

[Prem]

Russia, Poland sign deals deepening economic ties
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... ussia.html

The bad drought in Polish-Russian relations has come to an end," Komorowski said at a joint news conference alongside Medvedev after the deals were signed. He expressed conviction that both countries can "overcome the tragedy of a difficult history" and begin a "new chapter in the Polish-Russian relationship."
One accord signed is a broad declaration to deepen and diversify trade and economic cooperation far beyond a relationship that is now based mainly on Poland importing gas and oil from Russia. The declaration stresses the need to modernize the Russian economy and society.Other deals specify more cultural contacts, youth exchanges and infrastructure development, as well as joint work in fighting pollution in the Baltic Sea.Medvedev's visit to Warsaw comes amid a push by Russia to modernize its economy and to improve its standing with Western powers, including the European Union and NATO.Komorowski said that Poland, as a member of both the EU and NATO, wants to have "the best possible mutual relationship with Russia."

[Philip]

In continuation of the above post,Wiki has exposed NATO's secret plan to further its defence of European nations surrounding Russia to "cage the Bear".This suspicion was why Russia so strongly condemned NATO's missile defence based on Polish soil.From the expose's,it now appears that Russia's suspicion of US/NATO duplicity was correct.
Goergia was also being used as a western catspaw.What is worying is that there still exists in the west,certain powerful lobbies who want to punish Russia as if the Cold war still existed.If NATO and Russia actually work together,a huge amount of the def. budgets of the EU/Russia could be saved and plowed back into the economy to boost much-needed employment at home.The "bogey-bear" of Russia is an old bedtime yarn of Uncle Sam,who wants the European status-quo to remain,with little or no NATO-Russian detente.The poor Poles actually got unarmed Patriot missiles,something that advocates of this dubious and terribly expensive system for India must rethink,and rethink.

WikiLeaks: Nato allies have secret plan for defending eastern Europe from Russia
Nato allies have drawn up a secret plan for defending several eastern European countries in the event of aggression by Russia for the first time since the end of the Cold War, diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks disclose.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ussia.html

The plan, which is code-named Eagle Guardian, was secretly agreed in January and covers the defence of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by troops from the US, Britain, Germany and Poland.

It expands an existing plan to cover the Baltic states and was initiated by Germany after years of diplomatic wrangling within the western alliance over the defence of the region.

The move was welcomed by Latvia and Estonia, cables sent back from those countries show. But Poland was concerned about having its security lumped in with the other states.

Diplomats from the US, which is supposed to be enjoying a "reset" in relations with Russia since the election of Barack Obama, stressed that the plan must be kept secret to avoid angering Moscow.

In a memo distributed in January 2009, Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, wrote: "The United States believes strongly that such planning should not be discussed publicly.

"A public discussion of contingency planning would also likely lead to an unnecessary increase in Nato-Russia tensions." Other cables show that the US has agreed to enhance Poland's defences against Russia by sending F16 fighter jets to the country and deploying naval forces to the ports of Gdansk and Gdynia.

However, another memo discloses the Polish government was furious that the much-vaunted US Patriot missile systems that have been rotated into the country earlier this year were not actually armed.

"Deputy Defense Minister Komorowski angrily responded that Poland expected to have operational missiles, not 'potted plants'," Victor Ashe, the former US ambassador to Warsaw reported.

[SwamyG]

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire: Four Scenarios for the End of the American Century by 2025 by Alfred W. McCoy Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

[ramana]

Philip, NATO after end of Cold War was to become the global posse. Its scope of operations is now world wide. It has never fought a real war but has eyes all over the world.

The Modus Operandi is US gets in the first blow after rustling up a vote in UNSC and brings in the NATO to keep the area occupation. This way the idea of troops under UN flag or mandate is circumvented.

[Philip]

Ramanna,intersting analysis,Pioneers (US) and Settlers(NATO).However,in Afdghanistan,it appears that the Settlers have bitten off more than they can chew and are fleeing first,leaving the role of "beating the retreat" for Uncle Sam."First in last out".

Here's news of the US's latest bugbear,of all nations.....Qatar!

Robert Fisk: Qatar's the star – and Washington is worried

The latest cables released by Wikileaks show that the emirate's growing power is seen as a threat elsewhere
Wednesday, 8 December 2010

The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani and his wife Sheikha Moza bin Nasser Al-Missned hold the World Cup trophy

Despite the leaked US diplomatic reports on Qatar and their claim that it is a major source of "terrorist" funding, Washington would do well not to mess with the Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani.

He is the only world leader to march out of an American vice-president's office in fury after just seven seconds. And his Al-Jazeera television station – for truly it does belong to him – has revolutionised reporting in the Middle East. Qatar may be tiny but in the region, it is very, very big indeed.

The Emir is a sharp man with an equally sharp sense of humour. He is known to have told a visitor that if he threw the Americans off their vast airbase at Doha – the largest US installation of its kind in the Middle East – "my Arab brothers would invade Qatar." Asked what he would do if this was ever reported, he burst into laughter and said he would deny ever having said it. I imagine that's what he'll say about the latest trove of US diplomat-speak from WikiLeaks, which suggest that his television station has "proved itself a useful tool for [its] political masters", providing "a substantial source of leverage for Qatar, one which it is unlikely to relinquish". I doubt if the Emir could care less.

Al-Jazeera, of course, has been enjoying Washington's embarrassment, sharing the disclosures with viewers on both its news channels, Arabic and English, while squeezing American government spokesmen and women dry. When the Iraq cables came out, proving that the US had turned a blind eye to torture by the Maliki government, Al-Jazeera put the former US commander in Iraq on screen; his attempts to wriggle out of the questions were deeply embarrassing.

And the Emir knows how to embarrass people who get in his way. Apart from being fabulously rich and owning large bits of London – as well as the greatest liquid gas exporter in the Middle East – he doesn't take kindly to insults. When he visited Washington during the Bush administration and was invited to see Dick Cheney, he was astounded to see the then vice-president with a large file on his desk, marked "Al-Jazeera". What's that for, the Emir asked? Cheney told him he intended to complain about the channel's coverage of the Iraq war. "Then you'll have to speak to the editors in Qatar," the Emir replied – and walked out of the room.

But is Al-Jazeera the bargaining chip which US diplomatic cables suggest? A November 2009 dispatch from the American embassy in Doha suggests that the station is "one of Qatar's most valuable political and diplomatic tools". Qatar-Saudi relations had improved when Al-Jazeera toned down its coverage of the Saudi royal family, the embassy said. But the station's management have not been above inventing "decoy" stories which they had no intention of running and then suggesting to their Arab neighbours that they have been cancelled out of respect for their feelings. In other words, the cancelled "stories" were never intended to be broadcast.

Certainly Qatar knows how to annoy its Arab "brothers". President Moubarak was very angry at the way in which the Emir hijacked Palestinian Authority-Hamas discussions – Egypt's prior monopoly over these talks was one of its few claims to importance with the United States – and if the Emir praised the Lebanese Hizballah for its 2006 combat with Israel, he was perfectly happy to have Israeli President Shimon Peres debate with Arab students in Doha. Trade relations exist between Qatar and Israel. The Emir even involved himself in Lebanese affairs – previously a Saudi monopoly in the Gulf – and the so-called Doha agreement was formulated with the aim of avoiding future violence between Hizballah and the elected Lebanese government (in which Hizballah has seats). Unfortunately for the Lebanese, it also gave Hizballah veto rights over Lebanese cabinet decisions. The Saudis were not happy.

The Egyptians remain uneasy – the Emir can dismiss Egypt's "democracy" when Moubarak's National Democratic Party wins a fraudulent vote of more than 80 per cent in last week's elections – and the Americans would be unwise to believe that the prime minister of Qatar really offered Moubarak a cessation of critical attacks on Al-Jazeera in return for a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. When Moubarak visited Doha and asked to see the headquarters of Al-Jazeera, he was taken aback at its modest size. "You mean that little matchbox is what has been giving me all this trouble?" he asked. Indeed it was.

It's difficult to know what to make of Qatar as a nation. Liquid gas makes billions, but it is very expensive to ship around the world in tankers because it has to be frozen. Perhaps Qatar is a state of the imagination, for most of its population are foreigners and its future plans are Croesus-like in their ambition. A new metro system is to be built with 60 railway stations; how Qatar will fit all the stations onto its land is very definitely for the imagination. There is no parliament, no democracy – the Emir staged a bloodless coup while his father was off checking his bank accounts in Switzerland – but also, incredibly, no vast network of secret policemen.

True, the Emir is worried about Iran. The WikiLeaks revelations that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, speaking of Iran, told the Americans that it was necessary to "cut off the head of the snake", prompted a sudden Gulf summit in Abu Dhabi this week. Needless to say, the Qataris are just as worried – though less archaic in their fears – and only two years ago quietly asked the Americans to move their epic airbase further from the capital of Doha. The Emir doesn't want Iranian missiles exploding in his sparkling capital if they open fire on the US military installation which he hosts.

No doubt the Iranians will spare Al-Jazeera. Or will they? They threw the station's reporter and crew out of Tehran in anger at their coverage of last year's Iranian elections. But of course, it was George Bush who famously threatened to bomb the station's headquarters, an idea Tony Blair wisely advised him against. When Blair himself visited the channel's offices, he was asked by a reporter if the Bush story was true. "I think we should move on," Blair apparently replied. So it was true.

The channel – the real voice of the nation – also has a sports station which will be able to reap its rewards now that the 2022 World Cup is to be held in Qatar with almost a quarter of a million fans arriving in Doha, some of the visitors to be housed on a liner in the Gulf. If the Emir is still alive and well, he will be further elevated – to the immense jealousy of all those Arab "brothers". Al-Jazeera maintains it is independent. Its news channels do not – and cannot – make money, so the Emir's generosity floats over the heads of all its staff. But they have criticised the prime minister and officials, carrying interviews with dissidents who complained about police torture.

It's an odd relationship. As for all that money supposedly going to Al Qaeda, what do the Americans expect? The Gulf created Bin Laden to fight the Russians and they funded the Taliban for years via Pakistan. There's no reason to think it will end now. The Gulf Arabs know that they must maintain a two-way relationship with the outside world, part of it with America and part of it "within" the region. The US should thank its lucky stars that Arab nationalism is no longer a calling card. Wahabism (of the bin Laden kind) may pull at Muslim hearts – but commerce very definitely does, too.

Qatar: A brief history

History: During the 1940s, Qatar transformed itself from one of the Gulf's poorest states into one of its richest by exploiting the nation's oil and gas reserves. A former British protectorate, the country declared its independence in 1971.

Leadership: Ruled by the Thani family for almost 150 years, the current emir is Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, who seized power from his father in a bloodless coup in 1995. He is known for his liberal reforms, including advocating press freedom and allowing women to have roles in government. Critics suggest that his rhetoric has not always been matched in reality.

Population: 1.7 million people live in Qatar, though only 200,000 are natives. The majority are expats and foreign labourers taking advantage of the economic boom.

Industry: Once the centre of pearl fishing, Qatar now boasts 15 per cent of the world's gas reserves.

[svinayak]

Philip, NATO after end of Cold War was to become the global posse. Its scope of operations is now world wide. It has never fought a real war but has eyes all over the world.

The Modus Operandi is US gets in the first blow after rustling up a vote in UNSC and brings in the NATO to keep the area occupation. This way the idea of troops under UN flag or mandate is circumvented.

It is the cowboy country now and the posse is loose in the wild west.

[SwamyG]

With so many outsiders in the Gulf, imagine the tamasha if a new country for non-Arabs suddenly sprouted in that region. Lot of people from the sub-continent work there.

[negi]

[Philip]

The US/NATO's bum-chum in Kosovo a "'key player in mafia-like gang"!

The saying goes,"you know a man's character by the compoany he keeps".We now know NATO's and the US as if anything was new!

Kosovo's prime minister 'key player in mafia-like gang'

Kosovo's prime minister, Hashim Thaci, was the head of a "mafia-like" organised crime ring in the late 1990s that was involved in organ trafficking, assassinations and other crimes, according to an investigation by the Council of Europe.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -gang.html

[abhishek_sharma]

Fun with international relations Ngrams

http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... _ir_ngrams

Your humble bloggerwasted many hours online had some fun with Ngram, Google's new book-searching algorithm. Here are ten interesting discoveries: ...