Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 2010)

wig · Post by **wig** » 04 Dec 2010 08:35

whilst the us manufacturing base is the largest globally; the outsourcing of low tech manufacturing to other places seems to have led to a loss of skill sets that i think of as institutional skills. what seems to be happening is that personnel who do not have adequate higher level skills are languishing in the ranks of the jobless with no immediate succour. this is a problem that needs the best minds in the USA.

US jobs market woe dampens optimism
America's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose last month, delivering a blow to recent optimism that a recovery in the world's biggest economy was finding some momentumThe increase in the rate to 9.8pc from 9.6pc in October, will do little to comfort the US consumer, whose spending helped power the global economy until the financial crisis.

Overall the US economy created 39,000 jobs in November, the widely watched report from the Labour Department showed, far shy of the 150,000 predicted by economists on Wall Street.

The report, which followed a string of more encouraging signs over the past two months, hit sentiment on the stock market and triggered a rally in government bond prices. The FTSE ended the day down 0.4pc at 5,745, while the Dow Jones and the broader based S&P 500 were both down around 0.lpc in early afternoon trading.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/mark ... imism.html

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 04 Dec 2010 14:47

Here art the newsletter of the flambuoyant scot Sri Hugh Hendry of the eclectica fund. (pdf)

Brilliant. Witty. Entertaining. Foreboding too. Ensoi.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 04 Dec 2010 21:35

more printing ?

I stand by my comment that the federal reserve will be shut down in 3 to 5 years time. It will be a return to free market economics instead of guy-at-the-top-fiddling-around economics presently in place.

-----------

Bernanke Tells Nation This Sunday: More QE Coming

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bernan ... -qe-coming

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 05 Dec 2010 01:16

"CBS is reporting that Fed Chairman Bernanke will say in a TV interview which airs on Dec 5 that QE 2 is not limited to $600 billion, indicating that Zimbabwe Ben is prepared to print more money."

http://blackswaninsights.blogspot.com/2 ... hello.html

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 05 Dec 2010 04:49

Sneaky brit Sri AEP upto no good again, as usual.

ECB bows to German veto on mass bond purchases

The delay removes the risk that Frankurt might soon pull away the prop holding up the Irish and Greek banking systems, as well as the Spanish cajas – or savings banks – and the sovereign states behind them. Traders say the ECB intervened directly in the weakest bond markets on Thursday to drive down yields and calm nerves. However, Mr Trichet said there had been no decision to step up purchases of peripheral bonds to a whole new level – the so-called "nuclear option" – despite the potentially dangerous rise in Spanish, Italian, Belgian and even French yields over the past three weeks.

Aha. core-periphery border is getting diffuse or what - just like the durand line.....or is it the Maginot line this time?

Meanwhile, the reasonable sounding germanic peoples play games of their own...

Some credit market analysts had speculated that the ECB might launch a blitz of €1 trillion to €2 trillion of debt purchases, but this was never likely at this stage. Such action is anathema to Germany. Rainer Bruderle, the German economy minister, spelled out Berlin's objections on Thursday just hours before the ECB meeting, insisting that "the permanent printing of money is not a solution".
{The ghosts of weimar run deep, or what?}

A chorus of influential voices in Germany has warned that any attempt by the ECB to prop up Club Med with loose money would be a grave error, undermining German political support for monetary union.

{oirozone is zombiefied as is. Has anyone considered the pragmatic possibility that a dissolution of the monetary union would benefit everybody - surplus and deficit countries alike, eh? What has the EU done for germany anyway, eh?}

"It would be fatal if the ECB was to squander its credibility," said Klaus Zimmerman, head of the DIW German Economic Research Institute.

{Brushing aside the minor assumption that it has a lot of cred overflowing in the first place.}

He said the bank is the last bastion of credibility after the serial breach of EU fiscal and debt rules. "Broader purchases of the distressed eurozone debt would calm speculation for a short time, but would just invite risk-taking by investors in general," he said.

What is at stake politically for Germany is whether the ECB will remain faithful to the legacy of the Bundesbank. The German nation gave up its Deutschmark and agreed to share its admired monetary regime under an unspoken but sacred contract that the euro would never lead to disorder or inflation. To breach this contract is to risk a powerful German backlash.

Yet those closer to southern Europe's frightening funding crisis are afraid that matters will go from bad to worse very quickly unless the ECB pulls out all the stops, despite the market rally on Thursday. "The ECB must launch a massive purchase of eurozone debt without delay," said Professor Simon Sosvilla from Madrid's Complutense University. He will have to wait a few weeks yet.

Same old, same old. Nothing will happen, I tell ya. Jai ho.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 05 Dec 2010 12:20

Sri John Mauldin is on a roll here. Good read, IMHO.

Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About The European Debt Crisis But Were Afraid To Ask

In particular, he touches upon a pet theme of mine - the direct comparison of the Ireland and the Iceland models.

This is what it looks like in the charts. Notice that Iceland is seeing its nominal GDP rise while Ireland is still in freefall, even after doing the "right thing" by taking on their bank debt.

"How did you go bankrupt?
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

I was once in a hotel bar (a shock, I know) somewhere in Africa and was asked where I was from. "Texas," I replied. "Interesting," came back the response; "Whenever I meet someone from America they always say they are from the US or America. Except when they are from Texas. Then they are always from Texas." Yep. Texas is a state of mind, and those who come here eventually adopt the state as their own. Just seems to happen.

Now, a thought game. What would happen if California and Illinois and New York came to Texas and said, "We think your taxes should double so that we can finance our debt, and please buy even more of our debt next year to pay for our unfunded pensions. Oh, and while you are doing that the Fed is going to print massive amounts of dollars (far, far more than they are now) and destroy the value of the dollar, so your Texas pensions will be worthless.

My guess is that my fellow Texans would look around and decide which Ranger to set on these guys, and make it clear that this was not the ride we had signed on for, and dust off that old treaty and work out an exit strategy.

What then maybe the future of oirostan?

The peripheral European countries can simply default - Greece did so just 20 years ago. Rates got up to 20% for them. Banks would take losses, but the ECB can be the backstop. And after a while people would forget and lend the Greeks money again.

Or some of the peripheral countries can leave and go back to their own currencies, taking the path to devaluation, like Iceland did. Or Germany can decide to go its own way after what will be a very volatile and controversial election in the future.

Or the ECB can print euros and buy out the debt on European banks' balance sheets. Or create a massively large stability fund and combine that with some haircuts for euro bond holders.

There are no good solutions, just very difficult ones. And not one that I see that is euro-bullish in the medium term.

Shankas · Post by **Shankas** » 05 Dec 2010 17:10

Something is going on in UKstan
Couple of days ago I was in London and most places that use to take Euro no longer do so. I was asked to pay by queens money or credit card.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 05 Dec 2010 21:40

^^^

Euro is losing value every day. Probably businesses don't want to lose money in the few days before they convert the Euro to pound.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 06 Dec 2010 04:58

Couple of days ago I was in London and most places that use to take Euro no longer do so. I was asked to pay by queens money or credit card.

Rats deserting the sinking ship, perhaps? UQ would have sniffed trouble a mile off, they helped cause lots of trouble lots of places & so know the symptoms all too well only.

I just hope memories aren't short and that folk at the receiving end - the Icelandics, the Irish, the scotts and now mainland oiros remember UQ's devious dubious doublegames and payback at opportune times.

The 'queen's money' itself is swimming naked, seems like. Not much difference from queer's money, technically.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 06 Dec 2010 05:00

China’s gold imports surge fivefold

Gold imports into China have soared this year, turning the country, already the largest bullion miner, into a major overseas buyer for the first time in recent memory.

The surge, which comes as Chinese investors look for insurance against rising inflation and currency appreciation, puts Beijing on track to overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of gold and a significant force in global gold prices.

OK. so what numbers are we talking here?

The size of the imports – more than 209 tonnes of gold during the first 10 months of the year, a fivefold increase from an estimate of 45 tonnes last year – was revealed on Thursday. In the past, China has kept the volume secret.
...
blah blah blah and then in the last para...
...
Chinese total gold demand rose last year to nearly 450 tonnes, up from about 200 tonnes a decade ago, according to the World Gold Council, the lobby group of the mining industry. Analysts anticipate a further leap this year, putting the country within striking distance of India’s total gold demand of 612 tonnes in 2009.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Dec 2010 05:47

Wasn't it once illegal to own gold/silver in China? I somehow suspect that the recent demand for gold in China is largely through government agencies and not regular consumers. Question is, at what point will they stop buying US treasury bonds that'll reverse the interest rates and probably lead to another dip?

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 06 Dec 2010 11:02

^^Take the statement that China is the largest producer of gold with a Great Wall of salt. If you remember, China does well only in those statistics which cannot be verified by thord party, independant sources.

China *claims* to be the largest producer of gold, then is also claims that most of this gold is bought domestically

. The only thing it means that there is no gold production or consumtion going on at the claimed levels.

Just take the gold imports into China as the only authentic figure.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 06 Dec 2010 11:04

Hari Seldon wrote:
Couple of days ago I was in London and most places that use to take Euro no longer do so. I was asked to pay by queens money or credit card.
Rats deserting the sinking ship, perhaps? UQ would have sniffed trouble a mile off, they helped cause lots of trouble lots of places & so know the symptoms all too well only.

I just hope memories aren't short and that folk at the receiving end - the Icelandics, the Irish, the scotts and now mainland oiros remember UQ's devious dubious doublegames and payback at opportune times.

The 'queen's money' itself is swimming naked, seems like. Not much difference from queer's money, technically.

Imagine thinking the pound is more stable than the Euro. These britys, I tell you

Perhaps one should use Rupees instead on either in UQ.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 06 Dec 2010 11:05

If China imports a lot of gold, ask who is exporting. If they say they are mined locally, they are just lying.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 06 Dec 2010 12:36

Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Must watch video:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1680963951&play=1

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 06 Dec 2010 19:44

Moody's cuts Hungary close to junk, warns of risks

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 Dec 2010 00:48

Its a new beginning .

Yuan-Ruble Trades to Start in Moscow Next Week
MOSCOW—Preliminary trade for the yuan-ruble pair will begin on Moscow's Micex exchange next week, with China looking to use rubles to pay for Russian timber, seafood and coking coal as the two countries seek to strengthen currency ties while sidestepping the dollar. The Micex will trade three million yuan ($450,000) daily starting Dec. 15, officials at the country's largest market by volume said Monday at a Moscow conference dedicated to ruble-yuan trade. Trading ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 40848.html

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 07 Dec 2010 00:55

Is Groupon-Google drama an attempt to reflate tech bubble?

A Silicon Bubble Shows Signs of Reinflating

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Dec 2010 02:22

Someone told me about Groupon a few months ago that it was the next big thing. Unfortunately dont have any resources to utilize the info.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 07 Dec 2010 03:24

We can validate this expert's prediction tomorrow

John Taylor Sees Tuesday As D-Day For European Currencies, Says America Is Headed For New Recession

John Taylor appeared earlier on the 2011 Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, and among various interesting things (namely another call for EUR-USD parity, and that he would "love to be owning gold right here"), he said that the US is imminently headed for another recession, a development that will boost the USD and weigh on commodities. Yet what is more interesting is that in his latest "Chairman's View", Taylor put down a specific date for the end of the recent recovery in European currencies: the date is tomorrow, the day of the Irish Budget decision, and also the day when Europe may see a coordinated effort for a bank run.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 07 Dec 2010 03:49

Looks like Max Keiser's internet campaign is now attracting MSM attention.

J.P. Morgan Getting Squeezed In Silver Market? (SLV, JPM)

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 07 Dec 2010 04:59

Wow. Ain't this rich or what......

Even government can’t print money properly

Because of a problem with the presses, the federal government has shut down production of its flashy new $100 bills, and has quarantined more than 1 billion of them -- more than 10 percent of all existing U.S. cash -- in a vault in Fort Worth, Texas, reports CNBC.

Officials with the Treasury and the Federal Reserve had touted the new bills' sophisticated security features that were 10 years in the making, including a 3-D security strip and a color-shifting image of a bell, designed to foil counterfeiters. But it turns out the bills are so high-tech that the presses can't handle the printing job.

Sometimes, just for sanity sakes, one has no option but to go ROFL despite the semi-seriousness of the unfolding farce only.

It would take an estimated 20 to 30 years to weed out the defective bills by hand, but a mechanized system is expected to get the job done in about a year.

Combined, the quarantined bills add up to $110 billion -- more than 10 percent of the entire U.S. cash supply, which now stands at around $930 billion.

Wow. got that? Deflationary or what? That too where it matters most - in aam janta's wallets jabki bank reserves are overflowing with long series of electronic zeroes after a one.

The flawed bills, which cost around $120 million to print, will have to burned.

The new bills are the first to include Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's signature. In order to prevent a shortfall, the government has ordered production of the old design, which includes the signature of Bush administration Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

How fitting that sri geithner's signed bills are being cremated early on only.BUt sri paulson makes a major comeback though.

In other news, the bankrupt point fingers at other bankrupts in a transparent attempt to look good in comparison....

RBS recommends credit default swaps on China’s five-year debt.

Gr8. Now RBS should send a personal rep to attend that Nobel award ceremony only....LOL

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 07 Dec 2010 19:00

China Buys Most Korean Bonds in 6 Months as Won Falls

One shot, two birds. Diversifying their excessive export-earned wealth. Probably arm twisting to get high tech technology from Koreans in the future. Do not be surprised, if you find alternative to Samsung products like nand flash, mobile chips, display screens from Chinese manufacturers.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Dec 2010 21:51

ramana wrote: The new Congress has Tea Party types in many committees. There is strong disquiet.

Now there is this talk of deal to extend tax cuts leading to more debt; so let us see if these tea partiers make a fuss about this. 2 yr for the rich, and 13-month for the rest? Let us see what this Tea Party is made of, some time back they where whining (actually parroting) about deficits, spending ityadi. Now we have to wait for their handlers to react.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 08 Dec 2010 00:53

The European bank run was a disaster - for the run.

Eric Cantona cash withdrawal protest fizzles out

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2010 09:15

naked Capitalism says Wikileaks diss PRC GDP stats

Not that wikipee as any more true!

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 08 Dec 2010 14:02

Prem wrote:Its a new beginning .

Yuan-Ruble Trades to Start in Moscow Next Week
MOSCOW—Preliminary trade for the yuan-ruble pair will begin on Moscow's Micex exchange next week, with China looking to use rubles to pay for Russian timber, seafood and coking coal as the two countries seek to strengthen currency ties while sidestepping the dollar. The Micex will trade three million yuan ($450,000) daily starting Dec. 15, officials at the country's largest market by volume said Monday at a Moscow conference dedicated to ruble-yuan trade. Trading ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 40848.html

Quick point to note, Oil/Gas/Petroleum is not covered in the agreement. These are Russia's number one export materials. Wonder if Russia does not trust yuan completely.

ShivaS · Post by **ShivaS** » 08 Dec 2010 15:47

tax cuts dont lend to more debt, not cutting expenses(programs) aka expenditures lead to more debt or devaluation. In case of dollar no devaluation in absolute terms but in relative terms.

The need of the hour is to cut govt spending or re apportioning the expenditure. Federal employee salary freeze is one microscopic step in the right direction, cutting defence expenditure, earmarks, subsidies to agriculture, subsidies to ethnol (corn farmers) etc etc are more important than tax cut freeze or tax increases. Any tax increase will hit the wage earners more than rich. The low income less than $150,000 (two incomes) to middle class of $350,000 (two income) are the consumers who are still paying home taxes, buying things and keeping the economy going...

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 08 Dec 2010 16:04

The repubs on KOTUS must be numbskulls and Palin-clones all I thought, what exactly are they trying to achieve this way anyway?

Well, turns out not all of them are as dumb as janta jumps to believe.... They may well be chankian onlee....

check this out

Congressional Republicans appear to be quietly but methodically executing a plan that would a) avoid a federal bailout of spendthrift states and b) cripple public employee unions by pushing cash-strapped states such as California and Illinois to declare bankruptcy. This may be the biggest political battle in Washington, my Capitol Hill sources tell me, of 2011.

That’s why the most intriguing aspect of President Barack Obama’s tax deal with Republicans is what the compromise fails to include — a provision to continue the Build America Bonds program. BABs now account for more than 20 percent of new debt sold by states and local governments thanks to a federal rebate equal to 35 percent of interest costs on the bonds. The subsidy program ends on Dec. 31. And my Reuters colleagues report that a GOP congressional aide said Republicans “have a very firm line on BABS — we are not going to allow them to be included.”

In short, the lack of a BAB program would make it harder for states to borrow to cover a $140 billion budgetary shortfall next year, as estimated by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. The long-term numbers are even scarier. Estimates of states’ unfunded liabilities to pay for retiree benefits range from $750 billion to more than $3 trillion.

Let me also add that I have mixed feelings abt this too clever by half strategy. It is recipe for disorderly crisis. Some crises are useful and usable. What the GOP is trying to precipitate here maybe neither.

ShivaS · Post by **ShivaS** » 08 Dec 2010 16:30

Its the law of nature in telugu "peruguguta tharuguta kai" ardhath what goes up has to come down (some time crashing, briefly stated if not eloquently Rsie to fall).

The bankrupt states have to fail so that new state goverment can issue Resurgent America bonds...
The corruption in US is also very very high but is well hidden especially in the Township goverments and state goverments....
The role of the township govts and state govts has not come to light but was a major contributor to the buble via price rises and shoddy permits and constructions, everybody who had a nail to spare and hammer handy became Bob the builder....

oops I almost forgot Joe the Plumber

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 08 Dec 2010 20:26

ShivaS wrote: Any tax increase will hit the wage earners more than rich. The low income less than $150,000 (two incomes) to middle class of $350,000 (two income) are the consumers who are still paying home taxes, buying things and keeping the economy going...

Seriously, you mean to say I am not middle class.

I thought low income was grad school stipend levels and the moment you got a real job you are at least the lower middle class level. So there is no hope for a large majority of us, meltdown or not. I was led to believe that $350k level income homes had at least a doctor or a lawyer bringing in the collections.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2010 20:41

ShivaS wrote:tax cuts dont lend to more debt,

Really

? Maybe you have to inform Pew Economy Policy Group about that.

http://www.accountingtoday.com/news/Tax ... 334-1.html

Also: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-k ... _defi.html

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2010 20:59

ShivaS wrote:Any tax increase will hit the wage earners more than rich. The low income less than $150,000 (two incomes) to middle class of $350,000 (two income) are the consumers who are still paying home taxes, buying things and keeping the economy going...

Wow, where did you come up with those numbers?

Linky

"Middle class" is defined as those aged 30 to 69 with $40,000 to $100,000 in household income or $25,000 to $100,000 in investable assets and those aged 25 to 29 with income or investable assets of $25,000 to $100,000.

It is household income, does not matter 1 person earns that much or 10 people earn that money.

Here is link to: US Census Bureau's Income statistics: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income.html

Also from: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/d ... class.html

The Census Bureau does not have an official definition of the "middle class," but it does derive several measures related to the distribution of income and income inequality. Traditionally, the Census Bureau uses two of the more common measures of income inequality: the shares of aggregate income received by households (or other income recipient units such as families) and the Gini index (or index of income concentration). In the shares approach, we rank households from lowest to highest on the basis of income and then divide them into equal population groups, typically quintiles. We then divide the aggregate income of each group by the overall aggregate income to derive shares. The Gini index incorporates more detailed shares data into a single statistic which summarizes the dispersion of the income shares across the whole income distribution. The Gini index ranges from zero, indicating perfect equality (where everyone receives an equal share), to one, perfect inequality (where all the income is received by only one recipient).

Generally, the long-term trend has been toward increasing income inequality. Since 1969, the share of aggregate household income controlled by the lowest income quintile has decreased from 4.1 percent to 3.6 percent in 1997, while the share to the highest quintile increased from 43.0 percent to 49.4 percent. Most noticeably, the share of income controlled by the top 5 percent of households has increased from 16.6 percent to 21.7 percent. Over the same time period, the Gini index rose 17.4 percent to its 1997 level of .459.

Researchers believe that changes in the labor market and, to a certain extent, household composition affected the long-run increase in income inequality. The wage distribution has become considerably more unequal with workers at the top experiencing real wage gains and those at the bottom real wage losses. These changes reflect relative shifts in demand for labor differentiated on the basis of education and skill. At the same time, long-run changes in society's living arrangements have taken place also tending to exacerbate household income differences. For example, divorces, marital separations, births out of wedlock, and the increasing age at first marriage have led to a shift away from married-couple households to single-parent families and nonfamily households. Since nonmarried-couple households tend to have lower income and income that are less equally distributed than other types of households (partly because of the likelihood of fewer earners in them), changes in household composition have been associated with growing income inequality.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2010 23:35

On the new Tax Cuts compromise
Huffington Post op-ed

Is he stupid?

...
That is the position of the Obama administration right now as they argue for a "compromise" where they extend the Bush tax cuts for the rich for another two years. Even Pat Buchanan laughed on-air and said that's no compromise at all. That's complete victory for the GOP. Remember, in two years there will be a new president - and if it's a Republican, the tax cuts will be extended forever. Complete and utter victory for one side. Complete and utter capitulation for the other side. Pathetic.

Of course, there are two other explanations for the actions of Obama White House. The first one is that they're not dumb, they are embarrassingly weak. They know they should side with 67% of the American people, they know they shouldn't help the people who crushed them in the last election, they know they are showing no leadership by constantly cratering to the other side, but they can't help themselves. It is in Obama's nature to always compromise, no matter what the situation is. He hates to fight. He is No Drama Obama. He will do anything to avoid a confrontation, including giving the other side exactly what they want in the guise of a sage and tempered compromise.

The last possible explanation is the worst of all. He is complicit. He is among the top 2%. So is nearly everyone he knows. Everyone in his bubble is rich, fabulously rich. So, all of the people he knows thinks it's a brilliant idea to give more tax cuts to the rich, namely them. Plus, most of the Democrats also get campaign donations from the millionaires and billionaires. Though it's self-destructive in the long run because those guys will always give more to the Republicans, they can't wean themselves off of that money. So, they go along with whatever their rich funders want.

All three options are sickening. But there is no fourth option. No one in their right mind can possibly think that opposing at least 67% of the American people to help the political opposition is a good political idea.

And one last note, when President Obama agrees to this and they add another $140 billion dollars to the deficit over the next two years because of these tax cuts for the rich, who do you think the Republicans will blame for that deficit? You guessed it, the man who just gave them everything they wanted -- Barack Obama.
...

I think he is weak and knows he has sqaundered the politicial capital on other long term things and must pay for it. He hopes the 'stimulus' will push start the moribund economy and he can take credit for it. However the Repubs will claim credit for it when it shows up.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 09 Dec 2010 01:11

^^^
His base is demoralized. You are right, he is weak. He has not fought hard enough, but promises fight 2 years down the line. There are less takers than in 2008.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Dec 2010 01:21

Two less votes in my neck of woods.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Dec 2010 02:52

Why is the 10 year rate ~ 3.23% now. It used to hover around ~2.xx % a few days ago? What does this mean ? Less money in the system? Or fears of inflation?

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 09 Dec 2010 06:12

ramana sir ji

It may have to do with cut in payroll tax & extending bush era taxcuts for two year.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Dec 2010 07:57

My oh my, smt. Janet Tavakoli hits this one not just outta the ballpark but way out into orbit only.....

In a presentation "Fraud As a Business Model", made to the the Federal Housing Finance Agency's Supervision Summit, she fires on all cylinders.

Clicky for the slides from her presentation (scribd)

From one of the slides, quoted at Denninger's place goes:

• Investment banks - securities fraud
• Mortgage lenders – widespread fraud
• Rating agencies – junk science
• CDO “managers” – crash test dummies & accomplices
• Certain hedge funds – shorted CDOs they “managed”
• Bond insurers – money for nothing
• Regulators – poseurs and enablers

Bingo!

Cuts a wide swathe across the rot in khanate system. Must read, IMHO. Only. Jai ho.

ShivaS · Post by **ShivaS** » 09 Dec 2010 11:46

ramana >> that means the yield on the paper has gone up because the value (nominal value say $100 note has gone down, that is if somebody discounts it by 3.5 % only then he will buy ardhath 100 = 96.70)

Ok some metrics about muddle class vs income

if some one earns USD 60,000 in oxford Mississippi the equivalent you need to earn in NYC is atleast 120,000.

The train ticket from NJT Trenton to Pennstation is now $17.00 per trip that means $34.00 per day that means 26 times $34.00 usd 884.00 after tax money the same before tax is $1326.00 per month multiply that with 12 that is itself $15912.00 which is poverty level threshold income being expended for transport single person...

wake up people things are not same in the land of honey and milk.

The Adam Smith Institute stated in a 2010 report that "The 1997 Budget in Ireland halved the rate of taxation of realized capital gains from 40% to 20%. The then Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, was heavily criticized on the grounds that this change would reduce revenues. He countered by predicting that revenues would rise substantially as a result of the lower tax rate. He was proved entirely correct. Revenues rose considerably, almost trebling in fact, and greatly exceeded official predictions."[2] The effects of Ireland's credit bubble have not been included in this research, though when it crashed the taxes collected have proven far from adequate to continue operating the country's government or its economy.

People think understand economics and then

not before as you may gather dust only!

tax cuts dont lend to more debt,

said the moron

which is true Tax cuts (may) reduce the income of the govt (may be not as in above)

Debt is because you are deficit in your incomes and surplus in spending

If in the first place you had balanced budget or surplus budget tax cuts have to be instituted.

Look at Norway, the Oil surplus were initially passed on as a coupon to the population but now they are only doing it partially and rest saving it in a rainy day fund so as not to increase taxes when hard times come by (price drop or oil depletion North sea).

If you cut your expenditure, if you stop tax shelters and exemptions there is no need to for tax increases. The whole idea of Land of Milk and Honey came as protest about Milking the colonies by taxing them no?

Morons do read (at least known morons of BRF)