Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RajeshA]

X-Posted from President Sarkozy's Indian Visit

For the new century, India actually needs a strategic partner with certain qualities that only the French can provide.

The French are a middle power, with the allures of a major power. They are firmly entrenched in the Western civilization, but do not play poodle to the dominating Western power combine - the Anglo-Americans. They are a UN Security Council permanent member. They have a long history in the Arab world. They have a military. Having an mind, independent of the Anglo-American combine, they may be willing to join India in West Asian and African projects, in which the Anglo-Americans may have a completely different agenda or would not be interested.

Such a partnership with France gives India a necessary EU cover to venture out militarily in the world in a coalition. In fact the French may even be willing to accept initiatives started by India.

The Russians, though supporters of India, are a bulky bear, and have too many other strategic considerations. They do not have mobility in strategic thinking. The French on the other hand are not anchored to anything. They are free to explore new paths, and paths that India would/could suggest would necessarily be new ones, at least for the Western mind. The French also have the pull to bring EU behind a certain initiative.

Indo-French collaboration has the potential to offer the world an alternate world view anchored in democratic values but different from the Anglo-American World Order.

The Russians and the Chinese can not be taken on board, because they will not really share such democratic initiatives.

The potential for Indo-French partnership will be explored a bit more in a new version of my ebook, which is an on-going Project for a New Indian Century.

[brihaspati]

One of the things that we have to be careful about France is that the crrent warmth and enthusiasm comes from a maverick avowedly right wing politician. That makes for a very uneasy alliance with the long term Indian regime of vacuum ideology. The main problem will be consistency of the current warmth from French side, since it appears to be more dependent on the personality of the President rather than any institutional leaning.

Maybe there is a need to explore, if at all possible, that such a relationship of mutual dependence is gradually made independent of individual initiative.

[RajeshA]

Relations between countries, as with people, get stronger, when they deal with challenges together as partners. No institutions can really replace shared experiences, but neither do they hurt.

[RajeshA]

From Wikipedia: House of Saud

>>Due to its authoritarian and theocratic rule, the House of Saud has attracted much criticism during its rule of Saudi Arabia. Its opponents generally refer to the Saudi monarchy as totalitarians or dictators.

There have been numerous incidents of demonstrations and other forms of resistance against the House of Saud. These range from the Ikhwan uprising during the reign of Ibn Saud, to numerous coup attempts by the different branches of the Kingdom's military. On November 20, 1979 the Holy Sanctuary in Mecca was violently seized by a group of dissidents. The Seizure was carried out by 500 heavily armed and provisioned Saudi Dissidents, consisting mostly of members of the former Ikhwan tribe of Utayba but also of other peninsular Arabs and a few Egyptians enrolled in Islamic studies at the Islamic University of Medina.

The seizure was led by Juhayman al-Otaibi and Muhammad bin 'Abdallah al-Qahtani who cited the corruption and ostentatiousness of the ruling house of Saud. Utaybi and his group spoke against the socio–technological changes taking place in Saudi Arabia. Utaybi demanded that oil should not be sold to the United States.

Utaybi received little mass support outside of small circles of manual workers and students of tribal origin, of the lower classes and foreign labourers (from Egypt, Yemen and Pakistan.) The Saudi Royal family turned to the Ulema who duly issued a fatwa permitting the storming of the holy sanctuary. Saudi forces, aided by French and Pakistani special ops units, took two weeks to flush the rebels out of the holy sanctuary; the use of French commandos was surprising since, officially, non-Muslims may not enter the city of Mecca.

Saudi forces with the aid of Pakistani Special Services units ejected Utaybi’s Group. All surviving males (including Juhaiman ibn Muhammad ibn Saif al Utaybi) were beheaded publicly in four cities of Saudi Arabia<<

The French do come around a bit! And that is the reason the Pakistanis get Saudi aid!

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
I understand more or less the basic line of thought underlying your project. I would just throw in a cautionary note : as long as the Islamism being harnessed shows a long term trajectory of getting annihilated itself while the main purpose is being served, fine. As long as it is a tool, fine. As soon as the first premonition of a Frankenstein is caught, all possible future support for the line will have to be liquidated. I think you understand what is implied.

If I was the builder of the chariot, built to reach my destination and saw that one of the horses was turning rogue even though it pulled more weight and was leading the chariot to the edge of the precipice, I would not hesitate to decapitate the horse. If the charioteer refused to do so , I would finish off the charioteer too. If the charioteer refused to give up the horse and fought for control of the chariot, I would see to it that the chariot itself is pushed over the precipice. I would still continue the journey on foot if necessary for the destination cannot be given up. And nothing can be allowed to stand in the way.

[RajeshA]

brihaspati garu,

If we consider the case of chariots and four horses, and there is a precipice-loving rogue horse, I would use a strategy of getting a better control over the other three horses, so that they can better keep the rogue horse in line, and the chariot still gets pulled in the direction I like.

Also journey on foot, could be a romantic thought, but it may not be a guarantee that one will reach his destination, especially as there are other enemies who love to get their hands on your horses and chariot, and would most probably use the chariot to mow you down while you are walking on the ground.

Also killing the rogue horse, I think, would be difficult, with one having nothing more than just one's teeth and a history of vegetarianism, and let's not forget, the horse too would be having teeth, only lot bigger and hoofs as well.

I think the right mixture of politics, of divide and rule usage, of using a different wolf's skin, etc. can go a long way in dealing with the problem. With the Oil finished one day, it is just as possible that all the horses would simply die of old age.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
human feet can go where chariots and horses cannot. We make too much of oil. The theology emerged, and had its most spectacular successes long before oil was discovered and survived without oil. I will not enter into a debate about the "horse+chariot"! It was meant to illustrate the difference in the POV only. Perhaps also a clarification of choices if forced to even if reluctantly. Many a movement has been forced to feed on its own founders. We do not want that - do we?

[Atri]

batting too close to chest.. this is my first reaction after reading the book.. one has to be sure of one's skills and ongoing form to bat in that fashion...

[RajeshA]

batting too close to chest.. this is my first reaction after reading the book.. one has to be sure of one's skills and ongoing form to bat in that fashion...

Atri ji,
You may have hit the nail on the head in many ways!

However I feel, that it is also a case of either improving our batting skills or Teen Guna Lagaan!

Thank you for your time in reading the book!

[Atri]

we will talk more frankly over ekhat, of course....

[RajeshA]

we will talk more frankly over ekhat, of course....

Most gladly!

[RajeshA]

The theology emerged, and had its most spectacular successes long before oil was discovered and survived without oil.

brihaspati garu,
The theology has derived its physical strength from its technical and military prowess, geo-strategic location, or mineral resources.

When the Europeans were still barbarians, the Muslims are known to have had intellectual superiority derived from their contact with the Chinese and the Indians. The Turks displayed superior prowess through their use of stronger and faster horses and archers. The Arabs and Turks also made use of their positions in the heart of Asia to monopolize trade between India and China on the one hand and the Europeans on the other. When Oil was found in the Arab Peninsula it marked the beginning of a new influence.

• Today the West Asians are least known for their technological expertise.
• Their military prowess is dependent on the weaponry they import or get from the world powers.
• Their geo-strategic location is being circumvented for quite some time through shipping through the Indian Ocean.
• Their Oil resources are already on the downwards slide.

Other sources of financial power for them are

• Drugs Traffic from Afghanistan
• Remittances from the Diaspora in the West
• Piracy in the Indian Ocean

With the change of mood in Europe and USA, it is questionable how long the remittances channel would hold. Piracy in the Indian Ocean is beatable. Drugs Trafficking can be contained by simply destroying the poppy with some biological or chemical agents and/or through drug control mechanisms. On top of that, they do not have the fertile land to feed their burgeoning population. Another 30 years, and their source of power would be severely depleted. Alternative sources of energy could be found even before that.

That is why I think, West Asia is playing on a losing wicket. At the most, West Asia can only bring down another region, be it Europe or be it the Indian Subcontinent or for that matter even China. We hear how often Pakistanis say, "hum to doobenge, par tumhe bhi le doobenge!". That is their strongest card. That is also the card that needs to be neutralized. More importantly, that is the card that we cannot allow the Chinese to make use of.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,

we should look at the explanations of military technological superiority behind the success of Islamist armies against Europe or other powers - with a great deal of skepticism. we should look at the emergence point of Arab power. At that stage Roman and Persian empires definitely were at the latest in military technology. Arabs who won over Byzantine forces finally to drive them out of Palestine and Syria, did not have any great technological superiority over their opponents. Same story goes for the first significant victory over the Persians at Ptesiphon.

I have often a feeling that these stories are typically post-facto justifications for defeat on the part of historians who cannot entirely get rid of their psychological affiliations with the historically defeated side. A detailed analysis of most of the Roman battles against non-Roman so-called barbarians actually puts up the technological superiority angles into question.

Battles could be affected by technological superiority - but wars are often won more by persistence, ideological fanaticism or what I choose to call iron commitment, strategic and tactical flexibility and a lack of so-called ethics or morals where liquidation of the enemy is concerned.

When the Arabs actually first started out, they were at a disadvantage in all aspects of conventional warfare. They expanded and consolidated by deception, deception and deception and a certain twisted ideological version of de l'audace, encore de l'audace, et toujour de l'audace. And when openings are created to strike at and eliminate all those elements of the society that can allow revival of military resistance - intellectuals, post-puberty males, and cultural icons and material. This has been the one and only single weapon in the hands of central Asian and desert based forces. Over time this destroys the economic and intellectual productivity of the place and the pre-existing faction of fanatics weaken. But the system and approach stays and another band of famished greedy fanatics replace them. That has been the history of Islamism.

This is not dependent on this or that material source of fighting advantage and is more a matter of psychological attitude towards conflict and war.

Piracy was actually well and kicking in the hey-days of Roman power in the mouth of Red Sea area. Roman empire (wasnt someone touting them as the thousand year reich type super hegemon?) failed to control those pirates. Greek and Roman sources point to the arabs themselves as source. In fact it is possible that some of the modern gliteratti and royalty of those pure lands around the coastal domains are descendants of the pirate leaders against whom the Royal Navy started action during "empire" days. But the roots of piracy perhaps never really went down because of the same reasons as we are speculating about the blasts in Varanasi - because certain forces quickly come to understanding about mutual help and continued protection.

Controlling piracy there means breaking the back of Arab imperial or hegemonic ambitions, perhaps even Persian ones. Persians were prominent in piracy alongside Arabs in the Arabian sea and they always blamed Indians for their own pure-landish acts at a time when we have two or more independent sources saying that the Arab and Ceylonese boats were larger and faster than Indians.

[brihaspati]

Drugs trafficking will be far more difficult to stop than piracy. It has been going on in full form from the days of the British empire. It fuels and supplies perhaps a part of the energy of the "west" too. It provides a framework for transfer of capital, and profits and hiding them from taxation - globally. The "west", if not the consuming public, but some of its financial oligarchy as well as the secret services - will have every interest in keeping the drugs trade alive.

For the secret services, it provides a funding source away from national budgetary accounting, to be utilized for supporting covert actions in the international arena. Such connections between the state and criminal networks - called the "gray market" in contrast to the "black market" - are almost never killed once they are formed. Both sides hold too much info on the other for anyone side to escape the net.

You can have an agent orange thrown at the Vietnamese, but something like that will never ever happen on opium fields in Afghanistan, Pak, or Myanmar. Heck, the chain could be running with blessings of the Beijing apparatus, running through HK as the eastern hub. Track all the old conduit points of the British empire for drugs, it is likely to be intact. How does one think international drug-gun-women business flourish - if they do not somehow manage protection from "gray" zones of international governments and powers?

[ramana]

Bji, By 2050 Indian population will be 1.7B. Its essential to ensure that Indian image is non-threatening to the aam log outside India. We need to plan for that to ensure that wrong sterotypes are not put up and used to raise bogey of Indiaman!

[RajeshA]

We should use so much lubricant nobody finds out what we are doing!

[Prem]

Even with maha lubricant ,size will create its own vibration and seismic event.
Indians are peaceful only but having population of 1.7 Billion is threating in itself. Imagine a Super state with such great population and GDP to match . All India has to do is to make military service compulsary for its citizens to give the short glimpse of shock and awe. Let the earth rotate in the direction Indians walk!! Additionaly , Now only if Indian population ouside India grows to half of the above size, future of the planet will be SDRED . The days of Superpower gone and the dawn of new era of Planetpower.
D in SDRED = Dharmic

[RajeshA]

Battles could be affected by technological superiority - but wars are often won more by persistence, ideological fanaticism or what I choose to call iron commitment, strategic and tactical flexibility and a lack of so-called ethics or morals where liquidation of the enemy is concerned.

brihaspati garu,

speaking for myself, I can say, my loyalty is anchored to India, but I can't promise anybody ideology, much less ideological fanaticism. I think ideological fanaticism can be a very effective mechanism to ensure persistence, but it is hardly the promise of a thinking mind. If there is a vacuum of ideological fanaticism, one must look for an alternate means of persistence, and I think, it would have to be a strategic core networked and resident in the very bowels of the establishment, where it stays immune from the vagaries of politics and elections, and it is always close to the center of power, regardless of who carries the power at any given moment.

It is also important that this strategic core have a consensus on what the strategic and long term agenda of the nation is. Together that should provide the necessary persistence, be it in war or in peace.

This is not dependent on this or that material source of fighting advantage and is more a matter of psychological attitude towards conflict and war.

I think often the other parties simply take their eyes off the ball, as a culturally rich civilization can also be quite distracting, or our values require us to eagerly take the hand of the enemy "outstretched in peace" and overlook the Taqiyya aspect. That is why I am also in favor of institutionalization of monitoring of any display of the aggressive memes of Islam in the Subcontinent.

The problem is not only that India is developing ideological vacuum, but we also do not have any strategic agenda for ourselves other than the usual HDI & GDP goals. The Radcliffe Line has become a prison for our minds.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
I am all for "organic [nonobvious] expansion", as you know from long held posting styles. But I would not rely on at least one ally you have proposed, who have time and again betrayed. Any pretended reliance is something even I would indulge in, but no real trusting ones. Think of sending Uriah the Hittite to battle. I see that proposed ally as a key obstacle to progress of securing both India's future safety and to human progress in general. No move that also secures them and their identity growth in influence, prestige, and access to military strength - can be allowed over the long term. Only those conflicts which weakens that identity in moving against brothers from the same identity can be explored.

We cannot empower that identity any further, in any possible way.

India does not have an ideological vacuum or is not developing one. Only that the official regimes and the parties backing them have been forced to follow a vacuum for specific structural reasons [ unity and focus of the org based on individual and family and hence the requirement to destroy all alternative values/ideologies that restrict or impinge on the importance of the individual great leader].

I agree with you that the prison of the mind has to be broken. But it also means exploring taboos of thinking in a lot of other directions - such as the mythical impression of the power and effectiveness of specific community or faith systems.

[brihaspati]

ramana ji,
I fully agree with your pointer. The problem is that it is similar to the question of "maintaining communal harmony at all costs". Who decides the costs? Whose demand to what degree has to be met to become "satisfactory"?

In order to prevent stereotypes from developing about the threat potential of India, how much bending over backwards does India need to do? Could it be part of an elaborate wily diplomatic pressure on India to actually retreat and not resist the type of sadism that comes from Islamist terror groups or Paki elite? Pak consistently uses the "threat" perception to prevent retaliation from India.

Has being such super-sensitive to "threat perceptions" guaranteed Indian lives? The perception angle also seems to provide the right excuses for those in power not to do anything concrete. Why not go into counter and pre-emptive offensive mode in regards to propaganda about threat perceptions? That those who shout about "India's potential future threatening role" are themselves engaged in planning future aggression on India, and they are saying all this to cover up their own preparations!

[RajeshA]

RajeshA ji,
I am all for "organic [nonobvious] expansion", as you know from long held posting styles. But I would not rely on at least one ally you have proposed, who have time and again betrayed. Any pretended reliance is something even I would indulge in, but no real trusting ones. Think of sending Uriah the Hittite to battle. I see that proposed ally as a key obstacle to progress of securing both India's future safety and to human progress in general. No move that also secures them and their identity growth in influence, prestige, and access to military strength - can be allowed over the long term. Only those conflicts which weakens that identity in moving against brothers from the same identity can be explored.

We cannot empower that identity any further, in any possible way.

brihaspati garu,
if it is not too much trouble, can you let me know of which ally we speak, either through google group or ekhat.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
it is the social group whom you hope to inspire with the Mughaliana impetus. I would even encourage their most active members to supply indignant Paki males with arms and ammunition against us as and when we are in the situation of the final stages of the Paki collapse. It serves the dual objective nicely.

[brihaspati]

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php ... n-pakistan

Quetta, a city of 2.7 million people, holds many refugees from Afghanistan who came here when the United States attacked Afghanistan. Uzbeks, Tajiks, Afghans, and other groups of people have settled here, and provincial governments have registered them officially. Most of them have succeeded in getting IDs (identity cards) of NADRA (National Data Base Registration Authority), but NADRA also cancelled hundreds of fake ID cards. It is notable that the government has said these refugees may stay in the country until December 31, 2012.

This is a curious deadline. Apart from possible connections to plans of final withdrawal by US forces - which however is now officially claimed to be happening in 2014 - Is there more self-delusion than is apparent in the so-called 2012 dancing in Pak ?

According to the Express Tribune (Pakistan), the United States is pressuring the government of Pakistan to get permission for drone attacks in these areas. Pakistan has reputedly rejected the U.S. plea, saying that drone attacks create more problems internally for them than the government can afford. "'You expect us to open the skies for anything that you can fly,' said a [unnamed] high-ranking Pakistani intelligence official, who described the Quetta request as an affront to Pakistani sovereignty. 'In which country can you do that?'" Meanwhile, Pakistani Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said that Pakistan's military is capable of tackling any type of militancy, and Pakistani leaders have indicated that they will take action against the Taliban themselves rather than allowing drone strikes.

Of course, any official public application for permission by the U.S. government to bomb in Baluchistan, and the rejection of that permission by the Pakistani government is merely a game of words because everyone in the nation knows that when the United States decides to take action, a lack of public permission will not stand in their way.

A possible expression of fear that US may not listen.

The desire for revenge grows in residents of these areas, and they look toward joining the Taliban to get even, and they increasingly hate Islamic democratic Pakistan. These drone attacks in tribal areas eased the hiring process of the Taliban. Pakistani interests have been damaged on a large scale in tribal areas by drone attacks, and now Quetta is the next target. Quetta is a heavily populated city, and any drone attack will result in the loss of many innocent lives. It is clear that if the USA launches drone attacks in Quetta, it would be fatal for the national security and integrity of Pakistan.

Muhammad Zamir Assadi is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad, Pakistan.

This last piece looks like a growl and a beg from the PA. But it could also indicate a basic ground change which is beyond PA control or has been worked to that end by the PA, so that the change can be blamed on the USA - and not on slumabad.

[brihaspati]

http://www.viewpointonline.net/pakistan ... ecret.html
Hoodbhoy raises pointers even from within slumabad.

Sadly, absolutely nothing is known about disposal of nuclear waste in Pakistan. Are the authorities dumping low-level wastes in the sea or river? Where and how do they plan to bury the high-level wastes that will be lethal for thousands of years to come? Also, there is a complete blackout on the effects of uranium mining in Dera Ghazi Khan in south Punjab. About 10 years ago, mine workers and other affected villagers had banded together after large numbers fell sick from lung disease and cancer. To the dismay of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, they managed to produce a petition for the Lahore High Court. But, as invariably happens, the powers that be forced them to withdraw their case and some token compensation was given. Researchers too were defeated by the powerful nuclear establishment that keeps even health information as a national secret.

Contrary to claims made in 1998, the bomb did not transform Pakistan into a technologically and scientifically advanced country. Again, the facts are stark. Apart from relatively minor exports of computer software and light armaments, science and technology remain irrelevant in the process of production. Pakistan’s current exports are principally textiles, cotton, leather, footballs, fish and fruit. This is just as it was before Pakistan embarked on its quest for the bomb. The value-added component of Pakistani manufacturing somewhat exceeds that of Bangladesh and Sudan, but is far below that of India, Turkey and Indonesia. Nor is the quality of science taught in our educational institutions even remotely satisfactory. But then, given that making a bomb these days requires only narrow technical skills rather than scientific ones, this is scarcely surprising.

What became of the claim that the pride in the bomb would miraculously weld together the disparate peoples who constitute Pakistan? While many in Punjab still want the bomb, angry Sindhis want water and jobs — and they blame Punjab for taking these away. Pakhtun refugees from Swat and Waziristan, hapless victims of a war between the Taliban and the Pakistani Army, were tragically turned away by ethnic groups from entering Sindh. This rejection strikes deeply against the concept of a single nation united in adversity.

As for the Baloch, they deeply resent that the two nuclear test sites — now radioactive and out of bounds — are on their soil. Angry at being governed from Islamabad, many have taken up arms. They demand that Punjab’s army get off their backs and dismantle the cantonments. Many schools in Balochistan refuse to fly the Pakistani flag, the national anthem is not sung, and black flags celebrate Pakistan’s independence day. Balochistan University teems with the icons of Baloch separatism: posters of Akbar Bugti, Balaach Marri, Brahamdagh Bugti, and ‘General Sheroff’ are everywhere. The bomb was no glue.

Did the bomb help Pakistan liberate Kashmir from Indian rule? It is a sad fact that India’s grip on Kashmir — against the will of Kashmiris — is tighter today than it has been for a long time. As the late Eqbal Ahmed often remarked, Pakistan’s abysmally poor politics helped snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Its strategy for confronting India — secret jihad by Islamic fighters protected by Pakistan’s nuclear weapons — backfired terribly in the arena of international opinion. More importantly, it created the hydra-headed militancy now haunting Pakistan. Some Mujahideen, who felt betrayed by Pakistan’s army and politicians, ultimately took revenge by turning their guns against their sponsors and trainers. The bomb helped us lose Kashmir.

China has not yet formally notified the NSG of its intention to supply the new reactors. It had earlier explained away the supply of the Chashma-II reactor under a so-called “grand-fathering clause”, arguing that an agreement had existed prior to its joining the NSG. The argument will not work for the proposed two new reactors. The issue was to come to head in the NSG meeting held last week in Christchurch, New Zealand. But China did not bring up the issue. Significantly, the US deliberately stayed mum.
[...]
China’s interest in pushing the deal with Pakistan is fairly clear. The sale of two rather small-sized reactors to Pakistan is but a step in a larger plan to become a major producer and exporter of nuclear power plants. China is negotiating with western companies to acquire their technology under license for critical components that would enable it to make reactors of 1000MW and 1400MW. Pakistan is simply a test bed and a disposal ground for its small and unwanted reactors.

The impact of the Chinese reactors upon Pakistan’s energy crisis will be marginal. Nor will they contribute to its bomb-making capacity because they are under full-scope IAEA safeguards. It will take 6-8 years after the contracts are formally signed before the electricity reaches the grid, if all goes to plan. Even then, the new reactors will contribute barely a drop in the ocean. Moreover, the cost per kilowatt will be considerably higher than from other means. The gratitude we owe to our Chinese friends, including the long-term loan, should be tempered by these considerations.

Pakistan’s problem is not primarily that of installed capacity. If all current sources are included, this amounts to a respectable 19,000 MW. In principle this should be more than adequate for Pakistan’s power demand, which stands at around 14,500MW. The problem is that a mere 10,200 MW is actually generated. About 30% of current capacity is not used. Government incompetence and mismanagement are to blame.

One manifestation is “circular debt” – meaning the non-payment of electricity bills by the military and various government departments to other government departments. This has had the effect of electricity producers being unable to import fuel oil. Thus, expensive imported plants stand idle.

An inefficient distribution system wastes over 10% of the electricity as it travels along transmission lines, through transformers, and in bad connections. This is compounded by an electricity grid that is unable to effectively distribute electricity from power plants to consumers.

Electricity theft, by rich and poor alike, is another critical factor. For a small bribe, electric company employees create unmonitored bypasses called “kundas” or tamper with meters. Electricity producers and distributors lose revenue. The solution may lie in installing “smart meters” that are tamper-proof and remotely read. Stopping power theft would save far more megawatts than will be generated by Chashma’s four nuclear reactors, whenever they come on line.

[brihaspati]

Around 2002-4 there were some reports about the Saudi interest in acquiring nukes, and of possibly having contributed to the Paki programme financially. This was supposedly in return for a share or delivery of a portion of the output as a hedge against Iran attaining nukes. PRC is supposed to have offered medium range ballistic delivery capabilities.

Can we have an update on the current state of KSA -Pak collaboration (including UAE) about this? If true, this explains a lot more about US statements about the safety of Paki nukes. Simply that, US has little or no control over whatever the Pakis call "nukes" and that a lot of the apparent leverage that USA has over Pak is really not that crucial as a sole factor for Paki regimes fanatical survival.

I would rather be increasingly suspicious if all of a sudden KSA, UAE and China waxes warm about India and apparently starts collaborating on a host of issues with India.

[SwamyG]

Bji, By 2050 Indian population will be 1.7B. Its essential to ensure that Indian image is non-threatening to the aam log outside India. We need to plan for that to ensure that wrong sterotypes are not put up and used to raise bogey of Indiaman!

Time for desh to look actively, albeit strategically and silently, to "re-locate" some of these to scarcely populated regions of the planet. This is possible first with countries/regions that are connected to the sub-continent via land.

[Samudragupta]

regarding a possible alliance with the French: India should also deeply explore the 'new' German territory. Germany is decisively moving away from the post-WWII mold. indeed, the German reemergence is of great significance. American dominance of the Western Order was only possible after completely crushing Germany. if Germany breaks away from that stigma, it will create shock waves.

Germany is looking for renewed "Germanization" of the Europe, this time using the Anglo-Saxon model of Globalization.

[Samudragupta]

What effect will Ahmet Davutoğlu's "Stratejik Derinlik" bring on the subcontinent?

RajeshAji

Will the Middle East remain as it is in the face of the Turkish push for "Neo-Ottomanism"?

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji will give his expert opinion, which I am looking forward to on this. My own humble view is that it is just going a new east-west axial contest all over again. Putin wants a Turkey-Iran-China axis as a counter to Israel -KSA-UAE axis of USA. India and Europe perhaps have very similar weaknesses and roles.

[RajeshA]

I am afraid Ahmet Davutoğlu is the new Caliph, and he thinks China can put him on the new throne! Iran and Pakistan are invited to his crowning!

China knew that as long as Russia is its partner in Central Asia, it can only do so much in the region, accepting Russia's strategic primacy in CARs, even as it makes business deals there. Now China is willing to take Turkey as its primary partner in molding Central Asia. Russia is being taken for a ride. The East-West Axis is winning. The North-South Axis is broken! We're seeing the birth of a China-Islam Axis here, in the world's most important continent.

Europe and USA would simply accept the new Asian Order, especially as Turkey is a NATO member, even though with an independent agenda.

Just my humble reading of it!

[RajeshA]

In Asia there are three systems vying for power:
a) Pax Sinica
b) Pax Dharma
c) Pax Islam: Turkey-Ottoman, Saud-Hejaz, Shi'a Persia, Subcontinental Islam

There are also five East-West Axes and five North South Axes.

1) East-West Axis (Far North):China, Russian Far East (optional), Barents Straits, Arctic Sea (once melted), Europe
2) East-West Axis (North): China, Russia, Turkey OR Europe
3) East-West Axis (Central): China, East Turkestan, CARs (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan), Iran OR (Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia), Turkey, Europe
4) East-West Axis (South): Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Iran OR Indian Ocean, Arabian Peninsula (Oman, Saudi Arabia), Red Sea OR (Jordan, Israel OR Syria), Mediterranean Sea, Europe
5) East-West Axis (Far South): Philippines, (Indonesia OR Malaysia, Malacca Straits) OR Australia, Indian Ocean, Yemen AND/OR Somalia, Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Europe

Then there are the North-South Axes
1) North-South Axis (East): China, Myanmar, Indian Ocean
2) North-South Axis (Central): "Arctic", Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan OR Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, (Pakistan OR Iran), India, Indian Ocean
3) North-South Axis (Central-West): China, East Turkestan, Pakistan, Indian Ocean
4) North-South Axis (West-Central-West): China, East Turkestan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Indian Ocean
5) North-South Axis (West): Turkey, Iran, Indian Ocean

There are also additional countries which have a big influence on the stability of a region or on one of the axis, though they may not be part of the axis.

The "New" Great Game amongst the Asian and Extra-Asian powers is all about securing maximum axes for self and interrupting maximum axes for rival powers.

I'll talk some more on the Axial Geopolitics of Asia later on, perhaps in the Google Group.

[RajeshA]

More analysis posted in Google Group!

[brihaspati]

We should not entirely be taken in by US pious statements to that effect that it is not abandoning AFG after 2011, and will continue combat presence until 2014. In fact all this could be a diplomatic cover for real and effective abandonment by the end of 2011, beginning 2012.

The apparent indications of a shift by Karazai towards Pak because of the supposed reluctance in India to have more muscular presence in AFG - has only partly to do with such an Indian refusal. The major problem that India has in having a more muscular presence is the supply chain problem. Even USA is at the mercy of Pak shenanigans to supply NATO in AFG. India has little chance to get any passage through Pak.

Its alternative route through Iran is complicated by two factors : (1) the overriding Iranian interest to secure the gulf against USA will lead to ignoring the Shia-Sunni issue and linking up with Sunni sadists among the Jihadis fighting in Pak and AFG -[ I had repeatedly pointed this out when the Shia-Sunni divide was staunchly quoted] as long as common enemy USA+allies were being hurt (2) USA will bring in intense pressure to prevent India from using the Iranian route even though USA has in the past freely made deals with the most reactionary regimes in Iran for its own secret military initiatives.

But the major reasons behind Karazai's shift, is the reality of the semi-independence of the FATA and basically the frontierland between AFG and Pak - which now extends in continuous no-man's land from Balochistan on the sea and bordering Iran through to the Swat. This is an area on which neither Paki civilian regime nor AFG regime has much control. From within both regimes there are underhand militant and ideological forces that support the semi-independence of this frontierland. This is the core of the future hoped for "caliphate" - to extend in both directions into AFG and Pak.

Karazai may only delay this - but will not be able to postpone it indefinitely. Once again, it is becuase of a totally wrong reading of the problem of islamism and how it supports and nurtures violence with concrete politico-military aims. The fundamental error has been a refusal to weaken, penetrate and destroy the charity and educational networks of the Islamists - which function clearly and consciously as a parallel state.

The Talebs are going to make a Nazibullah out of Karazai. Moreover Islamist militancy intimately integrated with the Dawa networks and international financial flows and drugs trade [perhaps even legitimate sources of funding from oil wealth], have realized the geo-strategic advantages of the region by which they can use religious and racial hatred from within the "western camp" against potential allies like Indians or Hindus, and the ideological hatred and imperialist stupidity of "Hans" against all else.

The opponents of Islamism are divided, and more keen to appear as friends of Islamism while as for common objectives of destroying the kafir - there is no division among Islamist violents.

[brihaspati]

http://assembly.coe.int/ASP/APFeaturesM ... asp?ID=964

This should be a good illustration of how Islamists manage to coopt non-Muslim powers into first gaining an Islamic homeland among non-Muslims, using internal racial distrust and hatreds among the non-Muslims, and then bring out their standard and traditional Islamist practices of war and controlling or subjugating a society.

The Pakis were similarly accused of organ harvesting and medical exploitation of prisoners on BD captives - but nothing ever came out of it. Here is the method of carrying out Islamist coups, indulging in sadism and getting away with it - all with the help and protection of non-Muslim super-powers.

The fate of "Kashmir" if GOI manages to cave in.

Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights
Inhuman treatment of people and illicit trafficking in human organs in Kosovo*

Draft report
Rapporteur: Mr Dick Marty, Switzerland, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

A. Preliminary draft resolution

1. The Parliamentary Assembly was extremely concerned to learn of the revelations of the former Prosecutor at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY), who alleged that serious crimes had been committed during the conflict in Kosovo, including trafficking in human organs, crimes which had gone unpunished hitherto and had not been the subject of any serious investigation.

2. In addition, according to the former Prosecutor, these acts had been committed by members of the "Kosovo Liberation Army" (KLA) militia against Serbian nationals who had remained in Kosovo at the end of the armed conflict and been taken prisoner.

3. According to the information gathered by the Assembly and to the criminal investigations now under way, numerous concrete and convergent indications confirm that some Serbians and some Albanian Kosovars were held prisoner in secret places of detention under KLA control in northern Albania and were subjected to inhuman and degrading treatment, before ultimately disappearing.

4. Numerous indications seem to confirm that, during the period immediately after the end of the armed conflict, before international forces had really been able to take control of the region and re-establish a semblance of law and order, organs were removed from some prisoners at a clinic in Albanian territory, near Fushë-Krujë, to be taken abroad for transplantation.

5. This criminal activity, which developed with the benefit of the chaos prevailing in the region, at the initiative of certain KLA militia leaders linked to organised crime, has continued, albeit in other forms, until today, as demonstrated by an investigation being carried out by the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) relating to the Medicus clinic in Pristina.

6. Although some concrete evidence of such trafficking already existed at the beginning of the decade, the international authorities in charge of the region did not consider it necessary to conduct a detailed examination of these circumstances, or did so incompletely and superficially.

* All reference to Kosovo, whether to the territory, institutions or population, in this text shall be understood in full compliance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 and without prejudice to the status of Kosovo.


7. Particularly during the first years of their presence in Kosovo, the international organisations responsible for security and the rule of law (KFOR and UNMIK) had to cope with major structural problems and serious shortages of staff with the skills to take on the tasks they were entrusted with, all this being aggravated by rapid and constant staff rotation.

8. The ICTY, which had started to conduct an initial examination on the spot to establish the existence of traces of possible organ trafficking, dropped the investigation. The elements of proof taken in Rripe, in Albania, have been destroyed and cannot therefore be used for more detailed analyses. No subsequent investigation has been carried out into a case nevertheless considered sufficiently serious by the former ICTY Prosecutor for her to see the need to bring it to public attention through her book.

9. During the decisive phase of the armed conflict, NATO took action in the form of air strikes, while land operations were conducted by the KLA, de facto allies of the international forces. Following the departure of the Serbian authorities, the international bodies responsible for security in Kosovo very much relied on the political forces in power in Kosovo, most of them former KLA leaders.

10. The international organisations in place in Kosovo favoured a pragmatic political approach, taking the view that they needed to promote short-term stability at any price, thereby sacrificing some important principles of justice. For a long time little was done to follow-up evidence implicating KLA members in crimes against the Serbian population and against certain Albanian Kosovars. Immediately after the conflict ended, in effect, when the KLA had virtually exclusive control on the ground, many scores were settled between different factions and against those considered, without any kind of trial, to be traitors because they were suspected of having collaborated with the Serbian authorities previously in place.

11. EULEX, which took over certain functions in the justice sector previously fulfilled by UN structures (UNMIK) at the end of 2008, inherited a difficult and sensitive situation, particularly in the sphere of combating serious crime: incomplete records, lost documents, uncollected witness testimony. Consequently, a large number of crimes may well continue to go unpunished. Little or no detailed investigation has been carried out into organised crime and its connections with representatives of political institutions, or in respect of war crimes committed against Serbians and Albanian Kosovars regarded as collaborators or as rivals of the dominant factions. This last-named subject is still truly taboo in Kosovo today, although everybody talks about it in private, very cautiously. EULEX seems very recently to have made some progress in this field, and it is very much to be hoped that political considerations will not impede this commitment.

12. The team of international prosecutors and investigators within EULEX which is responsible for investigating allegations of inhuman treatment, including those relating to possible organ trafficking, has made progress, particularly in respect of proving the existence of secret KLA places of detention in northern Albania where inhuman treatment and even murders are said to have been committed. The investigation does not, however, benefit from the desirable co-operation from the Albanian authorities.

13. The appalling crimes committed by Serbian forces, which stirred up very strong feelings worldwide, gave rise to a mood reflected as well in the attitude of certain international agencies, according to which it was invariably one side that were regarded as the perpetrators of crimes and the other side as the victims, thus necessarily innocent. The reality is less clear-cut and more complex.

[Pranav]

We should not entirely be taken in by US pious statements to that effect that it is not abandoning AFG after 2011, and will continue combat presence until 2014. In fact all this could be a diplomatic cover for real and effective abandonment by the end of 2011, beginning 2012.

The apparent indications of a shift by Karazai towards Pak because of the supposed reluctance in India to have more muscular presence in AFG - has only partly to do with such an Indian refusal. The major problem that India has in having a more muscular presence is the supply chain problem. Even USA is at the mercy of Pak shenanigans to supply NATO in AFG. India has little chance to get any passage through Pak.

B ji, considering the way the US is spending money of building huge bases in Afghanistan, they have no plans to pull out soon. The real American problem is how to manage the Paks - how the Paks can be kept happy without giving them too much control over the Afghans.

[brihaspati]

The bases still run the problem of sustainability. Air power can defeat the Talebs temporarily. But you need jet fuel and others tuff to keep them operational. Supplying that will remain subject to intervention from the Pakis. Moreover AFG is not a flat country like Iraq or most of KSA, and it yet shows no trace of oil which can be used locally. I am not sure that the bases will function like those in KSA.

[brihaspati]

While roaming GDF, an important hope in Prem ji brought me to a curious parallel for the coming decade and apparent trends with the 1920-1930 phase of India's politics.

If we follow the patterns of history - the portents are not that encouraging. In a comparable period, 1920's (the 90 year minus from 2010) MKG used the funds collected by Tilak for Tilak's "freedom movement" (around 10 lakhs estimated) to push for the Khilafat-bachao movement - to preserve the Turkish Sultan's power. It did not yield any result and MKG sort of faded away until 1928, (1930 ~ 2020) when he dashed for the dominion status and quashed those who wanted full freedom (had Sriniva Iyenger expelled for demanding so).

Was the British lathi that proved fatal for Tilak really accidental?

Thus Congress is again curiously toadying up to protecting or appearing to champion Islamism as a cause, in 2010 just as it did under MKG in championing the Khilafat - in 1920. That movement fizzled out, but created the forces of Islamist separatism as a modern separatist violent Jihadi force.

But this is more complicated by the difference that in 1920, Congress was not a regime in power, and in 2010 it is in power. In 1920, the regime in power thought it could do anything and get away with anything, but really had to relinquish power by the next 30 years.

[abhischekcc]

Congress party has always been in bed with the Islamists/ But that is not the only party that it is in bed with - they sleep with everybody. They also harbour pro-western forces, and imagine this - Hindutva elements. Just recall that the mosque on Ramjanmabhoomi was torn down during congress rule, and mainly because the center refused to provide sufficient forces.

In essence, congress is a coalition of separate parties kept together under one banner called nehru family. It is an odd entity that achieves balance between dictatorship on one hand (Nehru family dictates) and democracy (coalition of interests). BJP successfully challenged congress when it successfully replicated this very structure when ABV was at the helm.

[Atri]

Was the British lathi that proved fatal for Tilak really accidental?

It was Lala lajpat rai and not Tilak who succumbed to British Lathi charge. It was about a decade after normal death of Tilak..

[RajeshA]

The fact that the Congress is tilting towards Islamism Appeasement should be seen as a sign, that they are getting feedback from their Congress workers and others, that the Islamism pressure on society is increasing, and that Congress better bend to the storm, otherwise their vote-banks would break off.

Maybe in the eyes of those amongst us, who cannot feel the pulse of society (Muslim areas in India), the way a mass-based political party like Congress can and does, we fail to appreciate the strength of the storm, and think that Congress is leading the charge of more Islamism, but it can be that they are simply bending with the wind.

This just means we have to look harder for ways and means to put the genie back into the bottle!

My view is, that we should look for the bottle outside India. If we keep on looking in India, we would all be having flowing white beards and Taqiyah topis and still no bottle in sight.