Pakistan arms sales, ops, doctrine, etc

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 10 Dec 2010 19:46

Rahul M wrote:ParGha, if India targets specific high value targets within pakistan (power stations/air bases/karachi port etc) without moving in ground forces inside pakistan do you think pakistan would really go nuclear, knowing fully well that they will be wiped out in return ?

I think it depends on the prevailing conditions inside Pakistan over which India has no control. For instance: If the Karachi and Gawdar Port are knocked out and Iran cuts off all fuel supplies, and the strategic fuel reserves start running low -- as a PA general I would start panicking. In 1965 Pak was lucky that Indians didn't figure out how low the Pak fuel and ammo levels were, otherwise they would have pushed "us" out of AK at the very least before the Tashkent Talks. I can't take the risk of being unable to stop a Strike Corps from reaching the N/S axis with my gas tanks empty, so I order Level IV readiness for the strategic forces. At this point the power has gone down to relatively junior officers whose perspectives on life and death and life-thereafter is going to be very different...

rsharma · Post by **rsharma** » 10 Dec 2010 20:44

Rahul M wrote:ParGha, if India targets specific high value targets within pakistan (power stations/air bases/karachi port etc) without moving in ground forces inside pakistan do you think pakistan would really go nuclear, knowing fully well that they will be wiped out in return ?

In contrast.. Rahul M.. do you really think, Indian Political setup, on either side of the ideological divide(Left , Right & Centre) have he guts to give the order for a such a surgical strike..????? I mean what compulsion was worse than a terror-strike on the Parliament..????
None of the Political parties in India have the guts to defy & undermine Washington's Geo-political interests in the region..
India's strategic/tactical readiness is purely defensive and seems to remain the same way in the foreseeable future..

sum · Post by **sum** » 10 Dec 2010 21:18

Concur with rsharma....

All thsi talk of "surgical strikes" etc is just hot-air, jingo wishlist etc... If there is no jhapad for a Parliament attack or a openly GoP sponsored 26/11, there never will be one.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 10 Dec 2010 21:35

rsharma wrote:In contrast... Rahul M... do you really think, Indian Political setup, on either side of the ideological divide (Left , Right & Centre) have the guts to give the order for a such a surgical strike??? I mean what compulsion was worse than a terror-strike on the Parliament??? None of the Political parties in India have the guts to defy & undermine Washington's Geo-political interests in the region. India's strategic/tactical readiness is purely defensive and seems to remain the same way in the foreseeable future.

At that level, it is not a matter of "guts" or "no guts": Some of the most successful commanders and leaders have been personally pathetic cowards, and the biggest failures are often very courageous individuals. Only in very primitive, tribal and barbaric societies is leadership linked directly to personal bravery and raw power. It is really a question of "experience" and "no experience".

Indian leadership is neither at the cutting edge of the technology (like US or Russians, who necessarily have to start off on things they have no experience with), nor is it primitively militaristic. But I do believe it will work its way up to such strikes if it finds it politically permissible. I just dont see it happening openly.

Neither you nor I can know all that happened in the 2000-02 timeframe, but I have seen enough bits and pieces of information to laugh at least at the "tactical readiness is purely defensive" part. Let us just say post-Kargil clean up and adjustments, along with retaliatory measures for Parliamentary and Kaluchak attacks continued during this time...

sum · Post by **sum** » 10 Dec 2010 21:39

Neither you nor I can know all that happened in the 2000-02 timeframe, but I have seen enough bits and pieces of information to laugh at least at the "tactical readiness is purely defensive" part. Let us just say post-Kargil clean up and adjustments, along with retaliatory measures for Parliamentary and Kaluchak attacks continued during this time...

Could you please elaborate on this part , atleast hints of what all happened ( if it is too hush-hush to be mentioned even after 10 years timeframe)?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Dec 2010 22:02

ParGha, I didn't mean choking pakistan.
a simple tit for tat, you send in terrorists to kill our innocents, we destroy a warship or a submarine worth a few hundred million $ and the promise of more if you continue. and humiliation for paki military besides.
would the paki RAPE brass really risk the chance to get fried in their beds to avenge this ? I've serious doubts.

@ all, I didn't say 'surgical strikes', in fact 'punitive strikes' would be closer to what I described.
I wasn't saying anything about political setup and any such thing.
there is a prevailing paralysis over where pak redline lies, if at all there is one. even cold start is perhaps too much of a reaction because it involves crossing into pak territory ? it is very easy to fume over politicians doing nothing from what we can see. and I agree there is enough reason to fume. an invasion, however, even a limited one is no small thing for a politician to order. add the chances of risking the lives of potentially millions of Indians and you'll understand why no one is willing to risk cold start.
may be it is time to think of alternative tools and responses that the military can offer the govt ? something that does not involve moving into paki territory yet extracts a cost in men and materials ?
is it possible that we were thinking on wrong lines. cold start is after all a modification of the pre-nuclear hammer and anvil strategy, not a completely fresh approach.
can we think of responses that lie lower in the escalation scale and thus easier for politicians to order as a first round rather than a full blown invasion ?

Jamie Boscardin · Post by **Jamie Boscardin** » 10 Dec 2010 22:31

My 2 cents:
- Attack is the best defense. There are no middle path option, no one is going to sit idle, when their territorial integrity is threatened. This happens only in INDIA. But its a tough choice of-course.
- If we want to do something, it should be done by our IN. Complete sea-blocade and chock up the economy. But we got to get our defense shields up and running before that to minimize collateral.
I'm fully of the view that once for all, let there be one and final decisive war. We Indians are ready to face the consequences rather than pathetically sit and back and watch our fellow indians been plundered by these s* country.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Dec 2010 22:40

attack is the best defence when you have a need to defend and your enemy is as powerful as you are.
if you are truly powerful you can just slap him without him having the courage to slap back in return.

we would all like an 'once and for all decisive war' but I don't think we need to. pakistan is unraveling itself, all we need to do is give a gentle push on its way. we have no reason to pay the human price of a total war and risk even worse. war is all about political gains, the less price you pay to achieve those, the better your warmaking capabilities. a pyrrhic victory is the last thing we want.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 10 Dec 2010 22:45

sum wrote:Could you please elaborate on this part , atleast hints of what all happened ( if it is too hush-hush to be mentioned even after 10 years timeframe)?

From public sources only: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 81#p979081

Mostly "line-straightening" operations and hunting down of terrs who poped their heads out during Kargil War. After Kaluchak a PA Bde HQ was flattened with artillery (a formation asset), but otherwise it was generally a lot of unit level action.

Jamie Boscardin · Post by **Jamie Boscardin** » 10 Dec 2010 23:02

Rahul M wrote:attack is the best defence when you have a need to defend and your enemy is as powerful as you are.
if you are truly powerful you can just slap him without him having the courage to slap back in return.

we would all like an 'once and for all decisive war' but I don't think we need to. pakistan is unraveling itself, all we need to do is give a gentle push on its way. we have no reason to pay the human price of a total war and risk even worse. war is all about political gains, the less price you pay to achieve those, the better your warmaking capabilities. a pyrrhic victory is the last thing we want.

You put it perfectly, they are really unraveling themselves! And forget us pushing them, their gods themselves are providing the needed push, one more yr of floods (one of the many things) should pretty much see kayani and osama sitting and playing poker
However, it seems that the entire nation is paranoid about India. And they seem to take pride in killing a few Indians and sacrifice 1000's in return. So for sure, the trigger happy folks will launch everything after saying final goodbye to everyone they know (knowing the expected massive indian retaliation). This is why we need to get our defense shields in place.

In a war, there will be losses, how well you minimize or maximize is all upto our armed forces and how well they are equipped. In this age, i doubt if in case of a war, any one party would want to get polictical gain out of that, but you never know the indian politicians mentality.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 10 Dec 2010 23:08

Rahul M wrote:ParGha, I didn't mean choking pakistan. a simple tit for tat, you send in terrorists to kill our innocents, we destroy a warship or a submarine worth a few hundred million $ and the promise of more if you continue. and humiliation for paki military besides. would the paki RAPE brass really risk the chance to get fried in their beds to avenge this ? I've serious doubts.

If you destroy the Karachi Port, it amounts to establishing a choke-hold.

But if you just want to blow up a few ships and planes, yes, that should be OK. In fact, this is exactly what a few officers I know have concluded as the appropriate response to next 26/11 type/scale attacks. However another capital attack like the Parliament Attacks, especially if successful, would require a much stronger and comprehensive solution. It is the nightmare scenario for India: everything our people have worked for for thousands of years will be on line at that stage.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Dec 2010 23:21

ParGha, I hope these officers put their ideas into writing and passes it on. we need a response tool like this ready when the next one happens.
p.s. of course, I did not mean complete destruction of karachi.

Jamie, that's what the pakis want us to think. so that we tie ourselves up fearing their response and allow them a free hand in low intensity war. in reality the paki military is led by the RAPE class who value their skin as much as any luxury loving elite, if not more. you need to delve into the psyche of these people to understand how they would respond.

what was the paki response to the atlantique incident ? (thanks negi for reminding me)

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 10 Dec 2010 23:23

well... on the basis that POK and COK are Indian territory, any PAF flights over that space are hostile and therefore are wajeeb-ul-qatl, no?

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 10 Dec 2010 23:43

Rahul M wrote:there is a prevailing paralysis over where pak redline lies, if at all there is one. even cold start is perhaps too much of a reaction because it involves crossing into pak territory?

I am glad that you have started looking at the problem completely (more below), rather than seeing just the slice that some people prefer to see. However I disagree that CSD is an overreaction; it is a naive and highly optimistic underreaction. When the enemy sets up redlines, you don't attempt to toe it to the edge: If you are impossibly weak, you stay away from it altogether; or you build up your strength to the point that you can walk across and erase the enemy and his line.

Rahul M wrote:it is very easy to fume over politicians doing nothing from what we can see. and I agree there is enough reason to fume. an invasion, however, even a limited one is no small thing for a politician to order. add the chances of risking the lives of potentially millions of Indians and you'll understand why no one is willing to risk cold start.

may be it is time to think of alternative tools and responses that the military can offer the govt?

something that does not involve moving into paki territory yet extracts a cost in men and materials ?

is it possible that we were thinking on wrong lines. cold start is after all a modification of the pre-nuclear hammer and anvil strategy, not a completely fresh approach.

can we think of responses that lie lower in the escalation scale and thus easier for politicians to order as a first round rather than a full blown invasion ?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 10 Dec 2010 23:57

i think that TSPA has signalled over the past few years that CSD IS a red-line, and after 26/11 they even signalled that a naval blockade would be a red-line. i guess the prevailing logic is that this is a street corner junkie with a gun and a syringe full of HIV+ve blood and he might do anything to anybody including himself - and therefore being nice decent folk we allow ourselves to be calmed down. perhaps what wikileaks doesn't show is the full-blown dr strangelove conversation that may have happened between successive jarnails and the US dignitaries

i am guessing that TSPA might be playing a game of deliberately keeping the bums in dispersal away from even taller-deeper friend's eyes and creates enough doubt for unkil and dragon to be anxious

but the longer this goes on, the more compelling becomes the case for a first strike against TSPA and removing the cancer once and for all

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 11 Dec 2010 00:04

ParGha, I haven't put my thoughts completely in this thread but they can be found in the archived threads post 26/11. in a nutshell, I'm in complete agreement with your views.

CSD is not large enough to be decisive and not small enough to be a risk free non-escalatory first round move. if we decide to go beyond punitive strikes it should culminate in a complete defanging of the pakistani military. I don't think we are ready for that yet. in 5-10 years, perhaps we will be. for that we would also need a dedicated effort to keep track of every pak nuke and delivery vehicle for a successful counter force strike.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 11 Dec 2010 00:06

well i come back to something i said a while ago, TSP's nukes are actually there to scare Unkil (indirectly) - and this is perhaps why the Dragon has been keen to supply them

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 11 Dec 2010 00:10

china will put them there to scare India as well. either will do from their POV.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 11 Dec 2010 00:14

Lalmohan wrote:well i come back to something i said a while ago, TSP's nukes are actually there to scare Unkil (indirectly) - and this is perhaps why the Dragon has been keen to supply them

See: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 53#p965753

negi · Post by **negi** » 11 Dec 2010 00:20

Well from the discussion I can say that we first need to debate on how real/genuine this talk about TSP using it's nukes in event of surgical strike is. What is also note worthy is the only time nukes have been used in a war was when the country being attacked did not have any nukes this along with the fact that TSPA would still come out second in a nuke exchange with India forces me to believe that serious thought must be given to strike the TSP as early as possible for it is amassing more nukes and delivery platforms as we speak and this when I do not see a reason for it to abandon using terrorism as a state policy (I mean what has GoI done to force the former to reconsider it ?).

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 11 Dec 2010 00:24

Rahul M wrote:china will put them there to scare India as well. either will do from their POV.

Incidentally the Chinese themselves claim they first started supplying nuclear components to Pakistan to knock USSR down a couple of notches. They agreed to sign the NPT in 1992 only after the Soviets had fallen.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 11 Dec 2010 00:43

negi wrote:Well from the discussion I can say that we first need to debate on how real/genuine this talk about TSP using it's nukes in event of surgical strike is. What is also note worthy is the only time nukes have been used in a war was when the country being attacked did not have any nukes this along with the fact that TSPA would still come out second in a nuke exchange with India forces me to believe that serious thought must be given to strike the TSP as early as possible for it is amassing more nukes and delivery platforms as we speak and this when I do not see a reason for it to abandon using terrorism as a state policy (I mean what has GoI done to force the former to reconsider it ?).

As I mentioned before, I think the Pak threats can become real under certain circumstances -- and since India cannot control those circumstances, it has to start off by assuming it is real. We cannot infer much from the nuclear peace of the Cold War -- it was mostly a standoff between rational players (except for a short period of Mao's insanity at the end of Chinese Cultural Revolution, when Moscow threatened to nuke Beijing and Lop Nur and the Chinese came back to senses). But I agree with your conclusion.

neerajb · Post by **neerajb** » 11 Dec 2010 00:48

Rahul M wrote:Jamie, that's what the pakis want us to think. so that we tie ourselves up fearing their response and allow them a free hand in low intensity war. in reality the paki military is led by the RAPE class who value their skin as much as any luxury loving elite, if not more. you need to delve into the psyche of these people to understand how they would respond.

For those who haven't read it already, an insight into Paki mind by our very own Shiv. Link : http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/EBOOKS/pfs.pdf

Reallly a nice piece for starters like me. I wish reading it should be made mandatory for all netas and babus at least.

Cheers....

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 11 Dec 2010 00:56

yup, strongly recommended.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 11 Dec 2010 01:09

In complete agreement with you Rahul M , especially about the proposed war doctrine wrt TSP. A ground invasion is likely to achieve very little in terms of negotiating power and going to cost a lot in terms of casualties, advance by the army accompanied by CAS is probabaly not the best way, specially when we (India) as the more powerful nation , the bigger economy and the better conventional arms can punish TSP from within our territory.

From 1972 leading up to Kargil and subsequently Parakram has told us that Pakistani ability wrt to launching offisensives against India has progressivly degraded to the level that now they think on purely defensive line in case of an Indian offensive. By involving ground forces and MBT's , we're just playing into their hands as it will give them more time and 3.5 will surely come to their resue on the negotiating table.

India can reduce Paki infrastructure to rubble in a matter of days if it so pleases and this can be done without setting foot into the land of the filth and without a single indian casualty. PN is clearly a sea denial force and venturing out of their territorial waters would be a disaster for them, PAF consists of only single engined aircrafts and they are in no position to launch deep strikes into India (perhaps kamikaze) while taking on our SAM network.

As far as the nuke angle goes, TSP has very little justification to escalate to nuclear war if the Indian response is swift and dramatic @ the same time. Their best bet would be to use a TNW on a military base as a sort of message to India and I hope that it is replied in Kind and as far as the prospect of full blown nuclear war is concerned, that is just Paki propoganda fed heavily to their Awam. In reality, TSP knows it will be finished as a nation and that is far too huge a price, even for a nation as Paranoid as Pakistan.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 11 Dec 2010 02:04

Nihat wrote:As far as the nuke angle goes, TSP has very little justification to escalate to nuclear war if the Indian response is swift and dramatic @ the same time. Their best bet would be to use a TNW on a military base as a sort of message to India and I hope that it is replied in Kind and as far as the prospect of full blown nuclear war is concerned, that is just Paki propoganda fed heavily to their Awam. In reality, TSP knows it will be finished as a nation and that is far too huge a price, even for a nation as Paranoid as Pakistan.

You are wishing.

The Paks know that they will never be able to make a concerted call to strike a particular military installation/formation; trying to keep control that long is just too risky with their rickety C3I infrastructure and leaves their OODA loop open for Indian penetration/manipulation. The moment they hit Level IV, they will push down the call to junior commanders and it will be anybody's game. And once the nukes start flying, it will be a "use it, or lose it" situation for them, and their best gamble would be to use it all and hope to break through Indian C3I. It would certainly have a lot of historic and cultural significance for them: Both Babur and Abdali made similarly desperate calls at Panipat and won empires.

Pratik_S · Post by **Pratik_S** » 11 Dec 2010 12:07

Found this video which compares turn rates of Su-30MKI and JF-17 and according to the video the JF-17 does that in 25 sec and the MKI does it in 30 sec which I can't believe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj1z098U5BA

Are there any other videos of Su-30MKI from which we can compare the turn rate ?

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 11 Dec 2010 12:19

ParGha,

given all this, we should sooner or later move away from NFU and focus on a larger nuke buildup. In this situation, following a "pehle ghaa rana no" policy is better. Especially, if as NPAs suggest, TSP has a larger arsenal. The consequences of FU cannot be worse than another spell of muslim rule. Under no circumstances can we allow another mughal empire in Bharat.

Given that we are amidst a civilizational conflict, our political system is a key weakness. Till TSP is sorted out, we must reconfigure into a system where military needs and considerations get absolute primacy...even if that system is not democratic.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 11 Dec 2010 15:48

Pratik_S wrote:Found this video which compares turn rates of Su-30MKI and JF-17 and according to the video the JF-17 does that in 25 sec and the MKI does it in 30 sec which I can't believe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj1z098U5BA

Are there any other videos of Su-30MKI from which we can compare the turn rate ?

Simple question - at what speeds were those turns executed? I think if one cannot answer this question, all conclusions are redundant.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 11 Dec 2010 16:18

Pak to get six more F-16 aircraft from US on Dec 13
Sify News

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Dec 2010 16:50

Pratik_S wrote:Found this video which compares turn rates of Su-30MKI and JF-17 and according to the video the JF-17 does that in 25 sec and the MKI does it in 30 sec which I can't believe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj1z098U5BA

Are there any other videos of Su-30MKI from which we can compare the turn rate ?

How many did you want sir? Here is the first one of many.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6UQWDK_eHE

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Dec 2010 17:13

the flabby tabby looks somewhat weak in vertical plane...its best bet to survive and prosper is likely a turning fight in horizontal plane, losing height in each turn to maintain some energy?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Dec 2010 17:15

Turn up the volume and watch in full screen.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 11 Dec 2010 21:02

Why are we even discussing a half backed plane with MKI.

This would be their first license produced (oops... indigenous) plane and they are comparing it with every other fighter in market, even claiming it to be better then J10 (**

**).

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Dec 2010 21:15

The comparisons are irrelevant for Pakis and unnecessary for BRF, but are necessary for a legion of Indian dhoti shiverers who, as usual, see Paki statements and brown their langotis - often on here, but increasingly in blogs and other areas that the internet now allows langoti-browners to inhabit.

Generally, but not invariably, the dhoti shiverers cock up when reassured.

The JF-17 (FC-1) may well be better than the J-10. It's airshow performance is certainly more energetic than the J-10 except rolls. The J-10 rolls away faster. Need to get a video of that out - but will spend some time on it and detail it if poss.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Dec 2010 21:25

Shiv saar - you are first oldie I have seen who likes gangsta rap....your mental nimbleness and vast range of talents would put a 20-something to shame

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 11 Dec 2010 23:37

Shivji,

Don't waste your time on disclaiming that the JF-17 out-maneuvers Su-30MKIs ... Their ignorance is our bliss

. Bracketing
a light fighter with a heavy fighter shows the level of ignorance.

They are fanboy videos. I am sure PAF would know much better

.

And oh by the way there are many acrobatic planes which turn and roll much faster than the Su-30 too.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 12 Dec 2010 00:37

Salwar poopers prevail on the other side of border as well.

All arms dealers sold them full production lines with promise of piece of pie in future sales.

1. K8 - all planes contracted and sold via China.
2. French Sub - pakis were bypassed when buyers chose OEM for the subs instead Paki shipyards.
3. MBT 2000 - new customer (Peru or Venezuela) bought it form China again.
4. JF17 - well... lets wait until PLAAF buys it.

Only if we Indians could realise that we have already been there done everything they are doing now then there will be no need for such videos. Kiran, T-72, Migs, Jags, HDW subs, MKI etc etc.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Dec 2010 06:21

Those Paki videos have been around for a while. It is curious that the same BRF member cross posted both those videos - one on JF-17 supposed maneuverability (on an earlier page) an now this one about the JF-17/Su30 comparison on this thread. Makes me wonder.

It is always a dhoti shivering Indian or Paki who ports langoti browning stuff from Paki fora onto here. I have no objection to Indians langoti browning on Packee fora but when it comes on here I respond as I see appropriate. If Pakis are to be ignored then their crap must not come on here and hit me in the face. I don't go asking for it.

Thanks for those nice comments GD.

negi · Post by **negi** » 12 Dec 2010 12:38

Shiv saar those videos are made by you ?

I thought you had a different evil handle for such stuff.