Gagan wrote:3b. Massa hopes that let pakistan have arsenic along with sugar - aid and arms just enough to keep it barely alive, while the cancer eats it hollow. And wait...
...wait until the jihadis get so strong that they are on the verge of clearing out the RAPE. The RAPE will be willing to sell everything - their Nookes included - to massa for allowing them to escape. Massa will de-nuke munna, and then depart.
It looks like scenario 3b is in process.
Gagan, I doubt if 3b is in progress now. Let me explain.
The Americans think, along with its Western partners and perhaps India too, that somehow Pakistan can be turned around to see reason and correct itself to be a responsible nation-state. This is the reason that while applying the tourniquet, it is twisted just so lightly that there is considerable blood flow still. True, the donors are not as generous as before, true the IMF is asking for implementation of GST, more taxes for the rich, tax on agricultural income, higher electricity tariff etc. At the same time, the USA is continuing with its Kerry-Lugar generosity, the PA is getting its arms supply without let or hindrance, thereby lining the pockets of the powers that manage Pakistan. Other countries such as PRC & Japan, without distributing money as they used to do (not China though. It was always discreet in money matters), are getting involved in projects. The Type-2s will still get their 'share' from these projects. The Type-1s depend on other sources for their mioney anyway and so nothing bothers them. The pain therefore goes to the common folk, not the Type-1s and Type-2s. The common folk are already cannon fodder for the Type-1s & 2s. They either become foot soldiers of TTP (Type-1) or LeT (Type-2). Those who cannot become foot soldiers, for various reasons, contribute funds to JuD and pray fervently for the destruction of India. For them, the increasing pain only confirms the theories of Zaid Hamid, Hamid Gul, Aslam Beg, the mullahs
et al that there is a deep conspiracy to annihilate the Islamic civilization and Pakistan is in the vanguard of protecting Islam.
The political parties, in order to survive, have to pander therefore to the increasing fundamentalism of the common folk,
a la Z.A.Bhutto. So, the vicious cycle gets repeated. This is not going to be broken by merely making life more miserable for the common folk than what it already is. When governance deteriorates and it becomes too hot, either the PA will step in claiming to save the state or there could be a closet jihadi party (like PML-N, or PML-Q or even a defunct MMA) claiming power with the help of PA. Already Musharraf has begun to justify a likely future scenario of the PA seizing power.
With the reckless Chinese having already added considerablyto the nuclear armoury of Pakistan (and still continuing to do so), the world at large would once again fawn over the PA to contain any fallout (both literally and otherwise) if democracy is once again subverted. Thus, history will repeat itself.
A country of the size of Pakistan and resources will simply not collapse without considerable and focussed efforts from major players outside. Pakistan has gamed that and is therefore embedding itself more and more within China as the hedge.
Type-1s overpowering the Type-2s is still far-fetched. Again, the world-at-large may not allow that to happen. Countries in the neighbourhood like KSA, UAE, and Iran would feel very threatened if that comes to pass. This is indeed the threat that the Type-2s use (pointing gun at their own head) to gain concessions from their donors. If Type-1s have to have that kind of power, they need to Wahhabise/Deobandise Pakistani society on a very large scale than what is happening now. It may eventually happen too but not in the immediate future (say for a decade).
The real fear though is that with increasing extremism and hatred spawned by relentless Islamist onslaught, rising levels of poverty, poor governance and overall lawlessness, the subversion can happen from within very quickly. Something like 'Free Officers' with partiality to Syed Qutb/Maududi may take over without warning as the middle level officers are increasingly coming from non-traditional recruiting centres and are increasingly showing signs of Islamist tendencies.
