India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[gakakkad]

War game for India hedging on US inflation.

Pressure-Track Model: “Tariffs on the Line”
1) Tracks (0–10 scale unless noted)
• Inflation Pressure (IP): captures CPI/retail price optics felt by voters (apparel, jewelry, APIs/generics, shipping). Getting there. My subjective analysis is that it is 3/10 now. Maybe 4/10.
• Business Lobby Pressure (BL): retailers, pharma, auto, logistics, trade groups. Not much pressure yet. I ‘d give 2. If India stops boeing orders and gives them to airbus than could increase. Problem is dependance on NVIDIA chip for AI.
• Swing-State Politics (SP): district/state-level job/price backlash that campaign cares about. This will also be a dependant variable on inflation.
• Legal & Institutional Headwinds (LH): court challenges, congressional pressure, WTO heat (0–6). Problem is that the time line of court is several months to a year. I wouldn’t bet on this . giving it 1/6
• Geopolitical Leverage (GL): White House view that tariffs help extract concessions (energy/defense/Russia stance). I’D GIVE THIS 6
• India Resolve/Workarounds (IR): India’s ability to diversify markets, craft carve-outs, or offer face-saving deals (0–6). I’d give it 3-4
Right now I feel IP=3-4, BL=2, SP=2, LH=1, GL=6, IR=3.




engles matrix




to be continued.

[gakakkad]

what are the potential geopolitical diversions where yanks would be forced to align with India. could a minor PRC-Philipines skirmish be escalated? that is one arena russkies won't be involved. just like india does not have a dog in NoKo fight.

[A_Gupta]

Both Asim Munir and his sidekick have said that next time they will strike deep in India, starting with the east.

What weapons will they use? Will india be able to distinguish this from a first strike? Is not creating a nuclear scare one of Pakistan’s goals in order to get international intervention? If India’s nuclear forces go on covert alert, will someone desh drohi leak that to the media?

[gakakkad]

most likely just bluster. but all they can do is terrorism. failed monkey has a lot of domestic pressure as well. ttp/bla is killing uniformed jihadis in 2 digits almost everyday. shortage of made in china mass produced hoors in jannat. other core commandoos are obviously not happy..

[Prem Kumar]

Both Asim Munir and his sidekick have said that next time they will strike deep in India, starting with the east.

What weapons will they use? Will india be able to distinguish this from a first strike? Is not creating a nuclear scare one of Pakistan’s goals in order to get international intervention? If India’s nuclear forces go on covert alert, will someone desh drohi leak that to the media?

We also need to ask ourselves the question: who is emboldening Munir to make these claims from the US soil?

It seems to me that the US & Pakis dont like that India has called the Paki nuclear bluff, not once, but 3 times (three surgical strikes). Each strike has been more destructive than the previous one. So, both of them want a rollback of this boldness. Hence, Munir is drawing new redlines

The US is tacitly (or not so tacitly) encouraging Munir to continue his jihadi attacks on India, see India's response & goad Pakis into launching long-range missiles. This is intentional destabilization & a heightened deterrence posture (lowered nuclear-threshold)

It may all be a war-game to the US, but this has serious existential risks for India

I hope the Overton Window moves quickly for our Nat-Sec establishment. Any further jihadi attack on India should result in a full-scale decapitation strike on the PAF. We should remove their #1 nuclear-delivery vector within the first hour of hostilities before the nuclear-bogey can be raised by the Pakis. We missed doing it during Op Sindoor, because mentally we were not prepared for this. By the time of next Op Sindoor, we must be ready both mentally & militarily

There is no other option

[Ambar]

It is not a matter of if but a matter of when Pakistan will attempt another 26/11 or Hamas style 10/7 on Indian soil. Munir is emboldened and knows he has the full backing of naarangee. Munir is more Musharraf than Raheel Sharrif, we saw near monthly attacks on our cities during the time of Musharraf when he had the complete backing of George Bush.

[drnayar]

Both Asim Munir and his sidekick have said that next time they will strike deep in India, starting with the east.

What weapons will they use? Will india be able to distinguish this from a first strike? Is not creating a nuclear scare one of Pakistan’s goals in order to get international intervention? If India’s nuclear forces go on covert alert, will someone desh drohi leak that to the media?

We also need to ask ourselves the question: who is emboldening Munir to make these claims from the US soil?

It seems to me that the US & Pakis dont like that India has called the Paki nuclear bluff, not once, but 3 times (three surgical strikes). Each strike has been more destructive than the previous one. So, both of them want a rollback of this boldness. Hence, Munir is drawing new redlines

The US is tacitly (or not so tacitly) encouraging Munir to continue his jihadi attacks on India, see India's response & goad Pakis into launching long-range missiles. This is intentional destabilization & a heightened deterrence posture (lowered nuclear-threshold)

It may all be a war-game to the US, but this has serious existential risks for India

I hope the Overton Window moves quickly for our Nat-Sec establishment. Any further jihadi attack on India should result in a full-scale decapitation strike on the PAF. We should remove their #1 nuclear-delivery vector within the first hour of hostilities before the nuclear-bogey can be raised by the Pakis. We missed doing it during Op Sindoor, because mentally we were not prepared for this. By the time of next Op Sindoor, we must be ready both mentally & militarily

There is no other option

if you want similarities look at Ukraine Russia conflict template, America will escalate all the way with respect to a future Pakistan India conflict.


Failed marsaals " nuking world" likely to have blessings of America.

I am one of those who think we stopped too soon wrt Op Sindhoor, we should have taken out their subs and their port