Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Feb 2014 00:52

fanne wrote:UK is a done deal. UK was a BJP state, it was a close win for congress in assembly (mainly because of BJP infighting). The Kedarnath tragedy and its mishandling already sunk con. It is 5-0 and will be with big margins.

Yes sir, plus the state usually alternates, last time cong got 5-0

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 14 Feb 2014 01:06

CVoter has just said that the pAAPis will get 7 LS seats.

This is exactly in line with what I said on 9th feb..

Further, they predict 202 for BJP alone. I said BJP would get close to 300. I still believe BJP will win full majority on its own.

About 3 more months... Just watch!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Feb 2014 01:24

Shonu wrote:CVoter has just said that the pAAPis will get 7 LS seats.

This is exactly in line with what I said on 9th feb..

Further, they predict 202 for BJP alone. I said BJP would get close to 300. I still believe BJP will win full majority on its own.

About 3 more months... Just watch!

I guess NDA tally is lower than 2009 just because of JDU, their 20 seats are gone, but then SAD should do better than last time (they were wiped out in 2009), SS is doing better (in their survey, although i think SS will do worse, BJP will do better in MH). I guess some other parties were added for 2009 NDA ally calcs

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 14 Feb 2014 02:27

Kati wrote:BJP has room to grow in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Assam and Kerala....

Plz add Orissa in there too. I personally looking to Kerala.

I will stick to my projection which I did back in Nov 20.

Ankit Desai wrote:I tried and come up with below prediction. I considered NDA as BJP and labeled accordingly in image. It is pre-poll prediction.

-Ankit

-Ankit

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Feb 2014 02:57

KLP Dubey wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Looks like NDA might get around 240. So NDA might win in MH. Nice.
The NDA numbers (from all pollsters) keep moving upwards each week. The election is not next week, it is in May (12-14 weeks from now).

Yes, that is the heartening thing. It gives Modi and BJP time to strike alliances and convert more people. Every political party has its base and people will vote for 'their' party leaders - be it caste, religious or sect affiliations. So Modi has to convert these leaders, and these leaders will "tell" their people whom to vote for. Is that a good sign of democracy? Not. But that is how things work. So if Karunanidhi says, "Vote for Modi", then his base will vote for Modi.

Maybe a few decades of Modi rule will change the voting pattern and these equations. The last few weeks is about Modi convincing these "mini" leaders along with convincing aam junta. National Progress and Congress Corruption will only influence so many voters. In areas where Congress is not a player, the regional players rule. In a 2-way fights, BJP can trounce Congress; but in other States with 3-way or 6-way fights, it does not matter if Congress loses. BJP has to win, or its alliances have to win.

It is IMPORTANT that "OTHERS" be nullified. Congress is no longer a direct threat to BJP politically. Yes, Congress can have "EVM Magic" or use "dirty tricks", but that is outside the scope of what BJP should/could do.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 14 Feb 2014 03:20

THis is is scoop from AP friend.

Rajagopal is very rich,powerful and connected family who supplied truck loads of money to Sonia in 2009. He also bought off opposition candidate in 2009 election, made EVMs disappear and infact they found original EVMs in godowns months later.

Any one can confirm?

Looks like he has direct access to Sonia. He can meet her whenever she wants. As suspected, this whole drama is protect themselves in these election. No matter what they do, CONs won't win in SeemaAndhra side. So their strategy is to appear as rebels and win.

I suspect this is a nice game played by Sonia and her CONgis to derail alliance of TDP and BJP. any thoughts?

Everything is Game : Venkaiah Naidu, Sushma

In the wake of the commotion in the Parliament the BJP senior leaders Mr. Venkaiah Naudi, and Sushma Swaraj made very interesting comments. They are saying that it is nothing but a clear Game plan of Gongress.

The essence of the what they said is... In the Parliament on one hand it is trying to show that they are very sincerely to introduce the Telangana Bill. On the other hand they and their M.Ps. are creating commotion. When their M.Ps. are creating the mess, the other M.Ps of the same party which are even from the other states are making attacks on their party M.Ps.

In these too much disturbed circumstances they are trying to introduce the bill and on the other hand as their people are trying to exhibit to the people that they are only fighting for this cause. This way congress is creating a confused atmosphere.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Feb 2014 03:22

The EVMs in Vijayawada godowns was documented in the EVM thread.

Rajagopal is contractor businessman.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 Feb 2014 05:32

Trouble brews for Nitish

Patna, Feb. 13: JD(U) spokesman Devesh Chandra Thakur has decided to quit the party, swelling the ranks of chief minister Nitish Kumar’s “loyalists-turned-detractors” in the run-up to the elections.

“I will quit the JD(U)’s membership to contest the Legislative Council election from my Tirhut graduate constituency as an Independent. I do not need a party label to get elected as an MLC,” Thakur, a shipping magnate based in Mumbai, told The Telegraph.

Polls for the graduate constituencies are likely to take place in March when Thakur completes his second term.

Nitish’s once “trusted” minister, Parveen Amanullah, joined the Aam Aadmi Party recently after resigning as an MLA and from the JD(U). Parveen has since been attacking the Nitish-led “system” for corruption and governance failure.

Thakur said he is upset that the JD(U) did not consider him for a Rajya Sabha berth. “I was expecting a Rajya Sabha term this time around. But I am sad that the leadership did not consider me,” he said. “I do not harbour any personal grudge against Nitishji. I still hold that Nitish is the best chief minister the state ever has had,” Thakur was quick to add.

Sources close to Thakur said he was interested in entering the Lok Sabha from north Bihar’s Sitamarhi seat. But the party brass had sent him no feelers that he would be given a ticket, the sources added.

State JD(U) chief Basishtha Narayan Singh said he is scheduled to hold talks with Thakur tomorrow.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140214/j ... v1kYvhY4nk

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 14 Feb 2014 05:41

From twitter..

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Feb 2014 05:56

Is he talking about this CSDS ? http://www.csds.in/board-governors

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 Feb 2014 06:44

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 14 Feb 2014 09:31

Don't for a moment think that AAP is the only FDI is Indian politics. There are others also with different levels of FDI. Look towards Japan. Somebody is being made to look good so that more seats may come from outside the state. AAP and YSRC are obvious ones. There are others that are more subtle.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 14 Feb 2014 10:33

Karunanidhi says ‘no possibility' of alliance with Congress, DMDK

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 14 Feb 2014 17:08

Karuna and his party should not be entertained much now. At most NDA should take outside support.
His disdain for Hinduism is well known. Corruption in family is well known.
DMK is not a good choice to associate with.
Would rather prefer the likes of Naveen Patnaik but he's very cold towards NDA right now.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Feb 2014 18:00

Virendra wrote:Karuna and his party should not be entertained much now. At most NDA should take outside support.
His disdain for Hinduism is well known. Corruption in family is well known.
DMK is not a good choice to associate with.
Would rather prefer the likes of Naveen Patnaik but he's very cold towards NDA right now.

Virendra,

Some surveys are giving 21 for BJP in rajasthan and some are predicting all 25 for BJP, whats your take, can congress get any seats? And also is there any AAP effect in cities of rajasthan and will it affect BJP?

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 14 Feb 2014 20:36

Virendra wrote:Karuna and his party should not be entertained much now. At most NDA should take outside support.
His disdain for Hinduism is well known. Corruption in family is well known.
DMK is not a good choice to associate with.
Would rather prefer the likes of Naveen Patnaik but he's very cold towards NDA right now.

Well, its seems lotus is in talks with Gajan for alliance. So, if lotus is going to have Gajan, DMK and such people as allies, I wonder if lotus is transforming into kongis because kongis seem to be on the verge of extinction. Even if these alliances don't fructify, the fact that these possibilities are being discussed is a sign in itself. Again and again, its clear that people are only enthused by Modi. Take out Modi and people don't see much difference between kongis and lotus.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Feb 2014 20:39

johneeG wrote: Well, its seems lotus is in talks with Gajan for alliance. So, if lotus is going to have Gajan, DMK and such people as allies, I wonder if lotus is transforming into kongis because kongis seem to be on the verge of extinction. Even if these alliances don't fructify, the fact that these possibilities are being discussed is a sign in itself. Again and again, its clear that people are only enthused by Modi. Take out Modi and people don't see much difference between kongis and lotus.

BJP is using Gajan mainly as a lever against CBN - to maximise the seats they will get in the alliance. It is a useful pressure point, and the BJP is willing to give the impression that it has another choice, not just CBN.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 14 Feb 2014 20:50

nageshks wrote:
johneeG wrote: Well, its seems lotus is in talks with Gajan for alliance. So, if lotus is going to have Gajan, DMK and such people as allies, I wonder if lotus is transforming into kongis because kongis seem to be on the verge of extinction. Even if these alliances don't fructify, the fact that these possibilities are being discussed is a sign in itself. Again and again, its clear that people are only enthused by Modi. Take out Modi and people don't see much difference between kongis and lotus.
BJP is using Gajan mainly as a lever against CBN - to maximise the seats they will get in the alliance. It is a useful pressure point, and the BJP is willing to give the impression that it has another choice, not just CBN.

Saar,
if Shree Raama says that He will negotiate with Kumbhakaran to put pressure on Vibhishan, how will it be perceived? And here, its not even Kumbhakaran, but directly negotiating with Raavan himself. In the words of Rahul Mehta saar, 'YSR is the most corrupt CM of the country'.

I know CBN is not Vibhishan, but then lotus is not Shree Raama either.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 14 Feb 2014 21:12

In the midst of all this...hugely "secular" budget in my state

ನಗುವುದೋ ಅಳುವುದೋ ನೀವೇ ಹೇಳಿ

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 14 Feb 2014 21:17

^^

* 100 cr for e-learning for "minority" schools
* Minority welfare centres in 7 districts
* Haj Bhavans in Mangalore and Gulbarga
* Help for minority aspirants in IAS exams
* 125 Cr for All round development of Christians
* Boundary walls to be built around wakf properties to prevent encroachment
* 800 Cr for minority welfare
* 25 Cr for minority department hostels

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 14 Feb 2014 21:26

So Kejriwal resigns. What a bloody joke!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Feb 2014 21:46

In the midst of all this confusion, let me give an interesting snippet, not sure how many noticed it.

During the timesnow c-voter discussion, in Himachal, AAP is not winning any seat, but gets 16% vote share, mostly concentrated around Shimla. BJP is down to 42% and cong down to 34%. Overall of course BJP is sweeping with 3/4. But I am surprised that they are able to get such traction in urban centers so quickly.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 14 Feb 2014 22:00

muraliravi wrote:In the midst of all this confusion, let me give an interesting snippet, not sure how many noticed it.

During the timesnow c-voter discussion, in Himachal, AAP is not winning any seat, but gets 16% vote share, mostly concentrated around Shimla. BJP is down to 42% and cong down to 34%. Overall of course BJP is sweeping with 3/4. But I am surprised that they are able to get such traction in urban centers so quickly.

Everyone I spoke to today think Kejri is a Hero and they love this.

Sacrifice, Hero, Corruption, Equal Equal ...

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 14 Feb 2014 22:11

^^^ Can you share your location here with us?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Feb 2014 22:15

So the establishment that foisted MMS on us (it is said that a French paper had published article before MMS became PM that he is being appointed PM), and thus far has screwed India, took the next step to stop natinalist force from coming to power in 2014. Media is of course going to side with them (as they have always, the media is an extension of that establishment). Big self goal for BJP.
PS- If you want to know which is the wrong side, watch out whom the English MSM is supporting, you will never go wrong.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 14 Feb 2014 22:21

ravi_g wrote:^^^ Can you share your location here with us?

Bangalore, Delhi folks. Not a single person use one bad word for him.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 14 Feb 2014 22:38

Many folks here were deeply upset that AAP was allowed to form the government in Delhi by BJP. Ultimately that decision turned out to be absolutely the correct one....as the public realized that governance calls for a different set of talents than holding street dharnas.

Now folks are upset that Kejriwal has been allowed to resign from his responsibility. Hold on to your horses, guys !! Just because competition is going full-throat Bollywood and appealing to low-IQ socialist heart-strings does not mean that the only counter to that is to go equally Bollywoodish. There are many other ways to play the game...

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Feb 2014 22:47

^+100. BJP followed the constitution and it was the right thing to do. Now BJP should make it well known to the public that AAP had the choice and responsibility of seeking centre's approval before tabling the bill which it choose not to.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Feb 2014 22:57

hanumadu wrote:^+100. BJP followed the constitution and it was the right thing to do. Now BJP should make it well known to the public that AAP had the choice and responsibility of seeking centre's approval before tabling the bill which it choose not to.

Let us see if the BJP does the constitutional thingie and votes against the Telangana Bill. That counts for a lot more than anything Khujliwala ever did. For the first time, the BJP, on its own, with some aggressive poaching, can win more than 10 MLA seats in SeemaAndhra, and 2-3 Lok Sabha seats.

There is also a second aspect to it. If Khujliwala decides to contest for the Lok Sabha, then the BJP can claim that he was never serious about the Delhi CM ship, and hit Khujli with the charge of irresponsibility (but his supporters seem equally responsible, so there are some problems with winning them back, but it should work for the general voters). If he contests again for the Assembly, then the impact on Lok Sabha will be hugely limited.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 14 Feb 2014 23:09

BJP damaging T drama of the mafia is critical aspect of the next week or so. If they do that then they damaged mafia in 42 seats out of which 25 for a long time to come. CBN and NM will sweep AP ( at least Costal and Rayalaseema areas) and Jagan also will have no option but to jump into NDA. Present AP CM and others may even join BJP if BJP promises united AP. In fact most of the congress leadership in Rayalaseema and Costal AP are now looking for options and for them BJP is a great option. But CBN is the best option for BJP and it all depends how Sushama will manage the things in Lok Sabha next week.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 14 Feb 2014 23:22

Narayana Rao wrote:BJP damaging T drama of the mafia is critical aspect of the next week or so. If they do that then they damaged mafia in 42 seats out of which 25 for a long time to come. CBN and NM will sweep AP ( at least Costal and Rayalaseema areas) and Jagan also will have no option but to jump into NDA. Present AP CM and others may even join BJP if BJP promises united AP. In fact most of the congress leadership in Rayalaseema and Costal AP are now looking for options and for them BJP is a great option. But CBN is the best option for BJP and it all depends how Sushama will manage the things in Lok Sabha next week.

Actually, this control needs to be given to Modi as he'll have to deal with future issues. Sushma and other BJP leaders seem to be chums with Congress to show themselves as Civil and Congress can subjugate them with wickedness.

Congress gave to BJP on platter an issue which is Congress employed Goondagiri by deploying MPs. It should ask for unsuspension of MPs and suspension of MPs who acted as Marshalls. If BJP is aggressive they should nail Congress on it and take it National elections that Congress is destroying parliament and country. Pepper Spray became popular across the country, so people will listen what Congress did and how it is screwing the country.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 14 Feb 2014 23:27

vivek.rao wrote:
ravi_g wrote:^^^ Can you share your location here with us?
Bangalore, Delhi folks. Not a single person use one bad word for him.

Sorry . I am from Bangalore and a lot of people here have become cynical about the Kejriwal drama here.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Feb 2014 23:46

prasannasimha wrote:
vivek.rao wrote: Bangalore, Delhi folks. Not a single person use one bad word for him.
Sorry . I am from Bangalore and a lot of people here have become cynical about the Kejriwal drama here.

That further proves that humans perceive the same event differently, based on their own experiences and biases. What becomes important is the calculations:
1. How many became disenchanted, and weaned from him?
2. How many new converts emerged?
3. How many were able restrengthen their beliefs - for and against?
4. How many were neutral.

If we knew answers to such questions, we would probably be running campaigns for our favorite leaders and making some money on the side

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 14 Feb 2014 23:52

Arjun wrote:Many folks here were deeply upset that AAP was allowed to form the government in Delhi by BJP. Ultimately that decision turned out to be absolutely the correct one....as the public realized that governance calls for a different set of talents than holding street dharnas.

Yes indeed, as I mentioned long time back. Dr. Harshvardhan is a fine man. He will get his due, and the gullible people of Dilli will realize what a waste of humanity the AAP is. I do hope there is enough public anger that Khujliwal and his "cabinet" (Sisodia, Bharti, Yadav, Bhushan etc) are thrashed by irate citizens and thrown out of Dilli. Let the mob get a taste of its own medicine.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 15 Feb 2014 00:11

sometimes we need to go backward to really go forward later.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Feb 2014 06:22

http://www.gossipguru.in/aaps-soaring-graph

Political strategists are worried about AAP’s increasing popularity. Sources reveal that the Aam Aadmi Party recently carried out a national public opinion survey and the results of the survey have shown that AAP is slotted to get 32-36 seats across the country. The survey has also pointed out that because of AAP, the Congress might lose 70-75 seats, and the BJP about 40-50 seats. In Delhi alone, the Congress’ vote share may shrunk to 10 per cent. Muslim and Dalit voters are looking at AAP in a favourable light and except South and West Delhi, the party should be confident about winning the other five seats here.

This guy has usually had decent info. I am not saying he is always correct, but about 80% of the time. If anyone is interested, i can provide later the list of juicy info he provided which has later proved to be correct. Anyway cutting to the chase, after he posted this, i was a little confused (lets say totally confused) and i tweeted him asking for a clarification, he told me that it is not info that he gathered, but news that is doing the rounds based on AAP's survey. Now we know what the credibility of their surveys are, but on serious note, am I missing something here, the numbers just dont add up. Is anyone here able to think of a way in which AAP can get 35 odd seats, screw congress in 70 seats and BJP in 45 seats.

Interpretation 1: Lets say there are a total of 115 seats (70+45) where AAP is making an impact. Of these they end up winning 35. That much i understood. Of these 35 lets say they destroyed congress chances in 20 and BJP's in 15. Now of the remaining 80, based on his analysis, BJP has been damaged in 30 and congress in 50. Now who is getting these 80 seats. As far as i know AAP is a zero player in any state where BJP is not a player. So if congress is screwed in 50 seats which they cant win, shouldn't BJP get those 50 seats.

As far as BJP's 30 seats are concerned, i would expect the benefit to go to congress unless AAP is screwing them in UP and Bihar and giving those seats away to BSP/SP or JDU/Lalu/Paswan.

Interpretation 2: Lets say there are a total of 80 seats where AAP is in play and it is damaging the BJP & Congress (in seats where it is usually a bjp vs cong fight) both in 35 seats and winning all these 35. In the other 45 seats, it hits the BJP in 10 seats in UP & Bihar and gifts the seat to some other non-cong, non-BJP party. In the other 35, it damages congress in some seats (this i cannot imagine where) and gives the seat to someone else. So overall it wins 35, damages congress in 35+35 = 70 seats, damages BJP in 35+10 = 45 seats. Again the flaw here is, AAP is a zero in non bjp areas, so how can it damage congress in 35 seats where BJP is not a beneficiary.

Why am I breaking my head over yogi yadav's fake survey, only god knows.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 15 Feb 2014 06:34

cannot beat TN in these things...

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 15 Feb 2014 08:12

lol

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 15 Feb 2014 12:11

devesh wrote:

lol

She is truly the fairest of them all, which is what counts.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 15 Feb 2014 12:49

muraliravi wrote:AAP is slotted to get 32-36 seats across the country. The survey has also pointed out that because of AAP, the Congress might lose 70-75 seats, and the BJP about 40-50 seats.

This is madarassa math by that useless website. If AAP wins only 35 seats, and congress loses 75, the 40 will go whom ? BJP is also loosing 40 seats ?

BSP, SP, third fourth fifth fronts ?

Jai. Ho.