Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 21 Jun 2021 21:18

Deans wrote:
My mother had her doses recorded under different numbers. Each number on Cowin therefore showed a first dose taken. The hospital was able to edit the info to show two shots under 1 number and provide the certificate - (Cowin has only now announced the facility of merging 1 person's
data under 2 numbers).

Similar experience for my Dad(80+ years) in Bengaluru kerala

. He had first dose in April followed by 2nd dose after 4+ weeks. somehow got messed u with vaccination doses numbers. He got it at a local private hospital near home. My elder brother did all the work to get it. The hospital assured him and my brother not to worry. This will be rectified in time. Now his 2 doses are reconciled correctly.

He paid Rs 250 for each dose. He recd covishield vaccine.

He was asked to stayed for 1 hr post vaccination. no issues. He did have some pain in his arm post vaccination. No fever or other issues.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Jun 2021 21:22

From a briefing from Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, (IIT Kanpur team )
For details see https://covid19-forecast.org.

Key observations:

- Second wave weaned off in most states
- Northeast States still recording high numbers
- India's daily average count - reduced from 400,000 to 63,000
- Test Positivity Rate (TPR) <5% - Most states
- Test Positivity Rate (TPR) >10% - Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya
- India's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - increased to 3.5%

They considered three scenarios using the epidemic parameters of the second wave, assuming that India is fully unlocked on 15 July:

1. Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal) : Third wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave.

2. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September).

3. Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October . Here, the peak will be lower than the second wave.

From what I can tell, Model is NOT taking vaccinations into account, The peak will be *significantly* reduced if we can get 100-200 million vaccines per month...

One very significant item, we now know that single dose of Covidsheild will not be sufficient (it is providing about 30% efficacy in India)..the recommendation to policy makers is quite strong - get two doses as soon as practically possible. Like Canada and UK I think policy in India will chance pretty soon.

PS - Number of vaccines per day, as I was posting here for some time, I believe will increase - may be 10 M/day in coming weeks. I certainly hope so.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 21 Jun 2021 21:27

PIB release june 21

lot of good news but need to comntunue and expand the goodwork to continue.

India's Active Caseload declines to 7,02,887
India reports 53,256 new cases in last 24 hours; lowest in 88 days
2,88,44,199 Total Recoveries across the country so far
78,190 patients recovered during last 24 hours
Daily recoveries continue to outnumber Daily New Cases for 39th consecutive day
Recovery Rate increases to 96.36%
Weekly Positivity Rate remains below 5%, currently at 3.32%
Daily positivity rate at 3.83%, less than 5% for 14 consecutive days
28.00 Cr. Vaccine Doses administered so far under Nationwide Vaccination Drive

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 Jun 2021 21:42

Aditya_V wrote:Nearly 82 lac today

82 lakhs Sunday + Monday, or just Monday?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Jun 2021 21:51

Kakkaji wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Nearly 82 lac today
82 lakhs Sunday + Monday, or just Monday?

just Monday. Sunday was record too .. 30+ lakhs

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Jun 2021 22:16

Aditya_V wrote:Nearly 82 lac today

Saw on Twitter:

Nothing to brag about, modi has no hand in this....it's because today was the longest day of year.

~ Award winning Neutral Journalist

(Of course, Another tweet: (From Varun Kumar Rana @VarunKrRana

Vaccinating 75 lakh people in a day is a sign of fascism.

- Mahua Moitra

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Jun 2021 22:25

Modi, Just tweeted ... Congratulations! > 8.2 Million!
Narendra Modi: Today’s record-breaking vaccination numbers are gladdening. The vaccine remains our strongest weapon to fight COVID-19. Congratulations to those who got vaccinated and kudos to all the front-line warriors working hard to ensure so many citizens got the vaccine.

Well done India!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Jun 2021 22:31

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1729199

At 9:05 PM IST nearly 8.1 million vaccinations.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Jun 2021 22:53

Mogambo kush ho gaya.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Jun 2021 22:55

I posted this here on June 3, about 3 weeks ago..Predicting the 10 Million/day rate..

Amber G. wrote:^^^ We will see if it pans out, but indications are that we, in India, will see vaccines rate about 4-5 millions/day fairly quickly and it will increase to 10 millions per day in 4-5 weeks. People behind the scene are *quietly* doing hard work so I think they are going to succeed. (China is currently doing something like 20M/day - we can easily do that too)

(There have been good mathematical models to advice how the vaccine distribution ought to be done - unfortunately there is too much noise and people don't let good people do their work).

I am very glad that, it seems that it is panning out..hope we can sustain 300 Million doses (or more) per month and usual trouble makers let good people do their work..To vaccinate majority of FLW and HCW was very helpful that our infrastructure of vaccine delivery did not suffer. ..

Folks - Get the vaccine shots as soon as practicable ..Try to get both shots (one shot is only 30% "effective" etc) and in meanwhile biggest help one can do is to avoid crowds, and wear masks (preferable N95) whenever one is in closed area with other people and encourage people to have good ventilation. No lockdowns but no big parties etc either.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Jun 2021 23:37

Here is the production chart from Suraj's tweets

June (150m) and July (175 m) are still enough to sustain 8 M/day for rest of June/July (240M)

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Jun 2021 23:55

That chart is from mid May. June data is looking a near perfect fit. July may be higher than the graph . August is too far out to tell - all those new vaccines need to clear trials smoothly, and we just saw how badly CureVac fell apart.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 22 Jun 2021 00:07

Today: 85,15,765

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 22 Jun 2021 00:47

Latest Figure as on 21-06-2021 2356 hrs

85,15,925

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 22 Jun 2021 01:22

Amazing! Lets see what is the new average in the coming days.

disha · Post by **disha** » 22 Jun 2021 01:52

Aditya_V wrote:Just checking cowin portal, have we vaccinated 75 lakh people today?

No. Not at all.

We vaccinated >85 lakh people today.

A Nandy · Post by **A Nandy** » 22 Jun 2021 01:55

1 crore per day..... soon!!

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 22 Jun 2021 02:42

Wow!!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Jun 2021 04:40

chanakyaa wrote:
Amber G. wrote:...
More I (and others) look at data and transmissivity of Delta variant I get extremely worried.
- Brazil has now overtaken India in daily numbers - and I am not talking about per million people..UK's daily number per capita is much worse than India - the dominant variant is Delta.
...
Amber G. Apologies if already posted before. Is there any reliable research on why Delta variant is more transmissible, explaining the methodology and how it was assessed? I'm sure there is more scientific study than simply, More Case --> More Transmissible, as factors like relaxed lockdown rules, pop density are various factors that would change the outcome.

Chanakyaaji - Yes, The transmissivity of the virus and comparison between one variant and other is extremely established science and are fairly well defined..There are a few posts here, (but easy to do a search on Lancet or other places to get the most reliable values - and there is really no debate as to these values -- One aspect is to see how fast different variants grow - for example UK (and some other European countries) now has 98% of all the variants as delta --- USA, as I posted the current estimation (again quite reliable) is that it grew from 10% to about 31% within a week.

FWIW: Here is brief technical explanations/perspective - R0 is roughly defined as product of three quantities: (It is NOT the same thing as R(t) - effective R).
R0 = τ · c¯ · d
where τ is the transmissibility (i.e., probability of infection given contact between a susceptible and infected individual), ¯c is the average rate of contact between susceptible and infected
individuals , and d is the duration of infectiousness.

In SUTRA or other models, it is beta/gamma where , In India's context - beta (effective contact rate) as you say certainly depends on things like lockdown, etc.. and gamma is about .08 - .10 (It takes about 10-12 days to recover from Covid-19 on average),, when we compare situation in India For example In December 2020 the average value for beta was about 0.18 (The value was close to this for most of Sept-Dec Time frame), In April with around the same kind of masking etc this value jumped to about .5 --- At present in UK (and USA) this value is about 0.6 -- It is about 2 or 3 times than the earlier version. (Again we compare the same kind of lockdown etc)..

Hope this helps.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 Jun 2021 05:34

Cumulative doses on Saturday at 7pm = 27,62,55,304

Number on Monday morning at 7am = 28,00,36,898 as per this PIB Rlease: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1728946

Therefore Sunday doses = 38 lakhs

If Monday was 85 lakhs, then total does should be 28.85 crores. But CoWIN Dashboard is only showing 28,38,91,764 total doses right now.
Therefore Monday doses = 38 Lakhs

What is wrong with my above calculation?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Jun 2021 06:19

Amber G. wrote:From a briefing from Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, (IIT Kanpur team )
For details see https://covid19-forecast.org.

Key observations:

- Second wave weaned off in most states
- Northeast States still recording high numbers
- India's daily average count - reduced from 400,000 to 63,000
- Test Positivity Rate (TPR) <5% - Most states
- Test Positivity Rate (TPR) >10% - Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya
- India's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - increased to 3.5%

This is also covered (now) in https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 711697.cms

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 Jun 2021 07:16

Kakkaji wrote:Cumulative doses on Saturday at 7pm = 27,62,55,304

Number on Monday morning at 7am = 28,00,36,898 as per this PIB Rlease: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1728946

Therefore Sunday doses = 38 lakhs

If Monday was 85 lakhs, then total does should be 28.85 crores. But CoWIN Dashboard is only showing 28,38,91,764 total doses right now.
Therefore Monday doses = 38 Lakhs

What is wrong with my above calculation?

I’ve always found CoWin dashboard numbers to trail PIB data. It was something I also pointed out to them in direct communications. I emphasized the need to use one common widely known place and not multiple sources with paradoxically different numbers. CoWin is supposed to be ‘live’ but it’s data is usually behind the 7pm PIB data. Been so for quite some time.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 Jun 2021 09:58

Since yesterday’s 7pm PIB data didn’t report total vaccinations, I’m using full day MoHFW data instead:
Saturday end: 276,255,304
Monday end: 288,766,201

Sun+Mon = 12,510,897

It’s been mentioned Sunday was 3.5 million doses done, which makes Monday 9 million total.

juvva · Post by **juvva** » 22 Jun 2021 10:45

Mort Walker wrote:https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1729199

At 9:05 PM IST nearly 8.1 million vaccinations.

great news, but do we have the vaccine pipe line to sustain this?
we will need about ~30cr doses/month ( assuming and hoping we will touch ~1cr vaccinations/day ).

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 22 Jun 2021 16:34

https://twitter.com/ani/status/1407269368002617348?s=21

Covaxin shows 77.8 % efficacy in phase 3 trial data in review by subject expert committee (SEC): Sources

nits · Post by **nits** » 22 Jun 2021 16:41

Ravish Kumar appears massively frustrated as India administers 85 lakh COVID vaccines in single day, this is why he does not make sense

Ravish, in his Facebook post, compared Monday’s achievement with the Pulse Polio vaccination program, in which 1.7 crore doses were administered in a single day in February 2012. He said, “In February 2012, under Pulse Polio, two drops of polio medicine was administered to more than 170 million children in a day. Ten years later, the government exerts its full force with the help of Godi Media filled with propaganda and advertisements worth crores of rupees and administer only 85 lakh vaccines a day.”

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 22 Jun 2021 17:05

nits wrote:Ravish Kumar appears massively frustrated as India administers 85 lakh COVID vaccines in single day, this is why he does not make sense

Ravish, in his Facebook post, compared Monday’s achievement with the Pulse Polio vaccination program, in which 1.7 crore doses were administered in a single day in February 2012. He said, “In February 2012, under Pulse Polio, two drops of polio medicine was administered to more than 170 million children in a day. Ten years later, the government exerts its full force with the help of Godi Media filled with propaganda and advertisements worth crores of rupees and administer only 85 lakh vaccines a day.”

Well his mind is broken.

He is comparing the vaccination against a disease that is not casually contagious. To the vaccination programs of a disease that is casually contagious and requires the recipient's to take significant measures both before and after the vaccines have been administered. Against a program that had been running for over 18 years in 2012. With the entire effort from the government was concentrated on a few days in a year. Against a program that was inoculating 25 lakh individuals on a daily basis for a long time and whose 7 day moving average has exceeded 35 lakhs individuals.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 22 Jun 2021 17:25

Pratyush wrote:
nits wrote:Ravish Kumar appears massively frustrated as India administers 85 lakh COVID vaccines in single day, this is why he does not make sense

Well his mind is broken.

He is comparing the vaccination against a disease that is not casually contagious. To the vaccination programs of a disease that is casually contagious and requires the recipient's to take significant measures both before and after the vaccines have been administered. Against a program that had been running for over 18 years in 2012. With the entire effort from the government was concentrated on a few days in a year. Against a program that was inoculating 25 lakh individuals on a daily basis for a long time and whose 7 day moving average has exceeded 35 lakhs individuals.

Also polio vaccine is an oral vaccine. Corona vaccine requires an injection...

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 22 Jun 2021 17:44

Not to mention the polio vaccine can be used at room temperature for a day and loses between 4-13% of the titre as opposed to the Covid vaccines.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 22 Jun 2021 18:09

Tanaji wrote:Not to mention the polio vaccine can be used at room temperature for a day and loses between 4-13% of the titre as opposed to the Covid vaccines.

Finally, there is a big supply limitation in the case of Covid vaccines, which was not a problem with polio vaccines.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 22 Jun 2021 18:15

The 77.8% efficacy for Covaxin is a real shot in the arm (pun intended ). This should be contextualized with the fact that Covaxin is tested in India where the Delta variant is dominant. Even Pfizer's vaccine is only 79% effective against the Delta variant. AstraZeneca is 60% effective against the Delta variant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... e-vaccines

According to figures gathered by Public Health Scotland and published in the Lancet, at least two weeks after the second dose of Covid jabs, protection against infection fell from 92% for the Alpha variant to 79% against the Delta variant for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, while for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine the protection fell from 73% to 60% respectively.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 22 Jun 2021 20:06

Suraj wrote:That chart is from mid May. June data is looking a near perfect fit. July may be higher than the graph . August is too far out to tell - all those new vaccines need to clear trials smoothly, and we just saw how badly CureVac fell apart.

Here are some more details of BB's production:

“The current production capacity is 25 million doses per month, and this is likely to be maintained till August-September this year, after which more supplies will happen. In the next two months, we will be starting production at two of our facilities in Ankleshwar, Gujarat, and Bengaluru, Karnataka. These facilities are being re-purposed and the production is likely to start in the next two months,” said Prasad.

The company is looking at an increase to 60-70 million doses per month by November-December.

“We actually see annualized production, and it is going to reach 800 million mark by the end of this year. We have initiated technology transfer with three institutions through the department of biotechnology, and these companies are also preparing their facilities for the purpose, especially setting up a bio-safety level-3 laboratory, and should start production in some time,” said Prasad.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 22 Jun 2021 20:10

(No free link to scroll)

Leftist website claims that the record vaccination numbers were stage-managed for PR by BJP ruled states going slow on the prior days to surge on Monday.

Well, this is easily disproved (or proved). If the daily numbers are sustained and remain high (as they should) the govt should get full credit.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 22 Jun 2021 20:20

From https://dashboard.cowin.gov.in/ today so far 51.25 lakhs. That would be the second highest number so far.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 22 Jun 2021 20:37

Mystery of Top Chinese Spymaster’s Rumored Defection Gets Weirder

SpyTalk

Where is Dong Jingwei?

Rumors that China’s top counterintelligence official had defected to the United States last February reached fever pitch over the weekend, propelled largely by unfounded reports in anticommunist and pro-Trump circles that Dong had brought with him evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic had originated in a leak from a virology lab in Wuhan, not from an animal source.

The Wuhan lab leak theory has not been proven. The vast majority of researchers believe the virus leapt from an infected animal to a person, probably via Wuhan’s “wet market,” where both live and butchered meat is sold, but definitive evidence has yet to be found. The controversy has been further exacerbated by Chinese secrecy, which has aided the campaign by pro-Taiwan and Donald Trump allies to deflect blame for the spread of the pandemic away from the former president and onto Beijing.
:
:
:

Regardless of the he said she said if true the defection is a huge blow to China

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Jun 2021 21:27

juvva wrote:
great news, but do we have the vaccine pipe line to sustain this?
we will need about ~30cr doses/month ( assuming and hoping we will touch ~1cr vaccinations/day ).

From what I know, I believe that At present *all* indications are that we (most Indian scientists who are making models and looking at present data) are virtually confident that we could sustain 5 million/day average in July and by August/September could sustain 10+ Million per day and there is fair amount of confidence that by the year majority (those who want it) in India can get two shots.
This is consistent with what most experts are projecting right now..who knows we might even do better. As said before, there are many things happening even behind the lime-light and new vaccines come into play in a fast pace.

Anyway for vaccine situation - Have been posted here but this can now be taken as "official"
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1729282

India has the capacity to administer 1.25 crore doses a day
Chairperson, National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation in India (NTAGI), Dr. N. K. Arora, who too joined the interview, said that the dosage achieved today is a big achievement. “What we did today is a big achievement. Our aim is to vaccinate at least one crore people every day. Our capacity is such that we will easily be able to administer 1.25 crore doses of COVID-19 vaccine every day.”

In coming days, SUTRA team will be officially projecting the next projection for next few months -- more of this later.

Meanwhile - As many people are saying Cowin Dashboard is becoming more exciting than Cricket score-board.. number of hits it is getting is awesome!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Jun 2021 21:47

Meanwhile - from "our world in data" the 7 day average:

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 Jun 2021 23:00

PIB Release for today:

Day 158: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1729508 = 29,40,42,822

If yesterday ended at 28.88 crores, then today's doses are 29.40-28.88 = 52 Lakhs

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 23 Jun 2021 01:14

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/we-will-h ... munisation
“We Will Have Around 20-22 Crore Doses Next Month,” Dr NK Arora, Head Of National Technical Advisory Group On Immunisation

On the day India has administered more than 85 lakh vaccine doses when the Revised Guidelines for COVID Vaccination came into force on Monday (21 June), Dr N K Arora, who heads the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation in India (NTAGI) said the government aims to vaccinate at least one crore people every day.

Speaking to DD News, Dr N K Arora said India's capacity is such that the country will easily administer 1.25 crore doses of the Covid-19 vaccine every day.

The Chairperson assured that there wouldn't be any issue regarding the availability of vaccines as we will have around 20 - 22 crore doses next month. Dr Arora said that the health infrastructure is well spread out to ensure that the vaccination drive reaches every corner of the country, including hilly, tribal, and sparsely populated areas.

The NTAGI Chairperson emphasised the significance of people's participation and public awareness to avoid rumours and misconceptions against vaccination.

"Jan Bhagidari and Jan Jagran are very essential to eradicate the fear of vaccination. Ultimately it is in the hands of the public to come forward and get vaccinated," he said.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 23 Jun 2021 07:34

Bart S wrote:(no free link to scroll)

Leftist website claims that the record vaccination numbers were stage-managed for PR by BJP ruled states going slow on the prior days to surge on Monday.

Well, this is easily disproved (or proved). If the daily numbers are sustained and remain high (as they should) the govt should get full credit.

No sorry, they should prove a claim themselves . I can easily disprove it but you never bend to trolls .

Any conclusion made without the data to prove it isn’t worth the trouble. Meanwhile they don’t get traffic from here.