ShauryaT wrote: ↑18 May 2024 04:40
I would be interested in some views on this lecture.
1. Thoughts on Israel involved in a "genocide" in Gaza?
Netanyahu's govt are clearly trying to de-populate Gaza by making it unliveable.
They're using the campaign against Hamas as a pretext for this.
2. Thoughts on Israel has lost escalation dominance as it relates to Hezbollah and Iran?
I agree there -- although that may change if Trump comes back to power, because while Israel may no longer have escalation dominance over Iran, the United States would clearly still have escalation dominance over Iran, even if the latter goes nuclear.
I think you should pay attention to what Mearsheimer says @
1:29:05
Trump is going to come back seeking to neutralize the Deep State. Whether he'll be successful remains to be seen. It may be a titanic battle.
3. I am familiar with views amongst millennials/gen Z of the US population on this issue but I was wondering if there are similar views, in the elite segments of India?
Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.
This is gaining increasing currency among Indian planners because of the problems with US, which not only include their vilification campaign against India, but also their fiscal and financial irresponsibility which threaten to destroy the value of dollar-holders. Therefore India also needs to look at a de-dollarized future which limits its exposure to the dangerously fragile dollar.
That's why India has suddenly signed the 10-year agreement with Iran on Chabahar, because India feels a need to pursue this opportunity, or at least keep it open as an option.
4. Any thoughts on what Israel's relative end game is, once the bullets stop flying?
Netanyahu's govt have no end game, other than to make Gaza so unliveable that Israel can present the world with a fait d'accompli, and tell the world that they've got to take the Palestinians out of there out of compassion, on the grounds that the place is unliveable.
So Netanyahu is riding the tiger. His coalition partners are the most radical extremists who will never accept anything other than immediate ethnic cleansing. Netanyahu's Likud party have also likewise traditionally been committed to a Jewish state that spans "from the river to the sea"
Netanyahu's coalition more realistic coalition partner, defense minister Yoav Gallant has publicly disagreed with Netanyahu by calling for a plan for some kind of Palestinian governance over Gaza that would not see the IDF stuck there occupying it in perpetuity while bearing unending casualties.
5. Israel's Long-term future as it relates to its economy, a relatively safe place to live/visit?
Did you notice what Mearsheimer said @
1:27:28 about how, following the Oct 7 attack, over 500,000 Israelis left the country, and there was also a flood of applications from Israelis trying to regain Polish citizenship? Maybe these people see the handwriting on the wall.
Israel is very rapidly becoming a pariah state in the eyes of the world, with its only strong ally being the US.
South Africa's campaign at the ICC may bear fruit with Israeli officials being charged with war crimes, etc.
This divestment campaign may continue to gain traction, and ultimately suck out life from Israel's economy.
Various countries have announced their intention to give diplomatic recognition to a Palestinian state, and grant diplomatic facilities (Presumably this would be done for the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, while Hamas remains a pariah in the Western world)
Israel's future may be tied to the rise of multi-polarity, which may not be in its interests, since multi-polarity then limits the power of the United States as global hegemon, which Israel has been a clear beneficiary of.
We Indians of course welcome multi-polarity, which we see as important to our own rise.