Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 13 Mar 2014 20:57

Sanku wrote:Sushma Swaraj from Vidisha. That is almost a 100% certain win.

Too bad! The BJP wasted a good seat on her. She should have been asked to contest from Telangana.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Mar 2014 20:59

Sanku wrote:Sushma Swaraj from Vidisha. That is almost a 100% certain win.

100% win for Congress? She is standing on a knife edge. She had to scold cadres, because they are all unenthusiastic about campaigning for a woman who is seen as sabotaging BJP. If she does not act to correct the perception soon, she will lose the seat, and no SSC, or NaMo will be able to help her. If she wants to get back to Parliament, she had better get her act together fast.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2014 21:04

krishnan wrote: in TN namitha is contesting polls

1 seat or 2 or even 3

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2014 21:06

nageshks wrote:
Sanku wrote:Sushma Swaraj from Vidisha. That is almost a 100% certain win.
100% win for Congress? She is standing on a knife edge. She had to scold cadres, because they are all unenthusiastic about campaigning for a woman who is seen as sabotaging BJP. If she does not act to correct the perception soon, she will lose the seat, and no SSC, or NaMo will be able to help her. If she wants to get back to Parliament, she had better get her act together fast.

That bad? Is her perception in the BJP so low? Any source/s?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 13 Mar 2014 21:12

Karan M wrote:
krishnan wrote: in TN namitha is contesting polls
1 seat or 2 or even 3

dunno, not even sure which party , but she is sure to contest, wonder who gave her that idea

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Mar 2014 21:15

Karan M wrote:
nageshks wrote: 100% win for Congress? She is standing on a knife edge. She had to scold cadres, because they are all unenthusiastic about campaigning for a woman who is seen as sabotaging BJP. If she does not act to correct the perception soon, she will lose the seat, and no SSC, or NaMo will be able to help her. If she wants to get back to Parliament, she had better get her act together fast.
That bad? Is her perception in the BJP so low? Any source/s?

All this is what I heard in the Sangh grapevine. She went to SSC for help to shift to Bhopal, since all cadres in Vidisha were unenthusiastic about working for her. She scolded them, but then, she does not really have a leg to stand on, since she has done nothing for the cadres or Vidisha. Also, after her speech demanding to be called Chinnamma, word has gone out that she is a traitor and a Sonia poodle. When she went to SSC, SSC simply offered her chai-biskoot, but did not oblige her about shifting her to Bhopal. So, she has to go back to Vidisha and work with the cadres who don't trust her remotely. She is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she is seen as part of Mission 160, she will herself be one of the victims of her own conspiracy, one of the casualties she is seen as trying to inflict on the BJP. Cadres are fanatically devoted to NaMo, and SS is seen as someone who wants to hamstring his chances. Unless SS corrects that perception soon and works enthusiastically for the BJP, she is toast. A waste of a solid BJP seat, but c'est la vie.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Mar 2014 21:16

muraliravi wrote:Open magazine ko kahan se leak milgaya? Bunkum info

Not impossible. According to my estimates Muslim growth rate is 50% higher in Assam, WB (20+ vs 10+), 200% higher in Kerala (9 vs 3)and 30-40% higher in UP + UK (30+ vs 20+).

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 Mar 2014 21:17

So I am doing the unthinkable - watching NDTV, few things they are saying that is against conventional wisdom here (among few of us) -
Karnataka - BJP 20 (more than expected)
Jharkhand - BJP only 6 (less thank expected)
Till now

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 13 Mar 2014 21:40

Karan M wrote:
nageshks wrote:
100% win for Congress? She is standing on a knife edge. She had to scold cadres, because they are all unenthusiastic about campaigning for a woman who is seen as sabotaging BJP. If she does not act to correct the perception soon, she will lose the seat, and no SSC, or NaMo will be able to help her. If she wants to get back to Parliament, she had better get her act together fast.
That bad? Is her perception in the BJP so low? Any source/s?

She is sitting MP from Vidisha, last time she won by the highest margin of over 4,00,000 votes -- with SSC and NaMo wave + her earlier popularity in Vidisha, this should be a cake walk.

And oh, all this D4 blah blah blah has become very boring.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 13 Mar 2014 21:49

Gul Panag declared AAP candidate from Chandigarh

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 13 Mar 2014 21:53

Only perfect democratic way at the national level (so that factions do not carry weight) is to go with a U.S electoral collage system.

People have clear choice with directly voting for the President (as oppose to MPs voting to make a Prime Minister after elections)

So! anybody who wants to become President files nomination as per constitution and goes through the scrutiny (media, financial, strategic, etc).

1. Political party of the person running for election assigns the number of electors (delegates) as per their population in each state.
2. After the elections whoever wins the most vote (popular) in that state their delegates go to Capital city and vote for their candidate.

U.S really has three totally independent centers of power that provides excellent (better than UK democracy) checks and balances.

1. Presidency . (does not depends upon congress for many things, President gets 4 years of independent rule and cannot run for more than two terms)
2. Congress.
3. Supreme Court.

Also!! A person running for the Congress Cannot run from anywhere in the country. He/She must have a domicile status (some years) and usually only those people win who have been residing in that area (from where they are running) for over 10+ years.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 21:56

3rd List of Candidates for Lok Sabha Election 2014

http://www.bjp.org/media-resources/pres ... ction-2014

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Mar 2014 22:04

Sanku wrote: She is sitting MP from Vidisha, last time she won by the highest margin of over 4,00,000 votes -- with SSC and NaMo wave + her earlier popularity in Vidisha, this should be a cake walk.

And oh, all this D4 blah blah blah has become very boring.

(Shrug) I am just reporting what Sangh insiders are saying from MP. You are underestimating the kind of admiration NaMo has among the karyakartas, I think. I never said she is sabotaging, just that it is a perception that has gained ground. It is up to you to decide whether it is important, boring or whatever else it strikes you as.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Mar 2014 22:08

Anyone with knowledge of Bihar- can you please let me know if Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav is a good choice in Madhubani? I heard that he has garnered a lot of anti-incumbency, and has got on bad terms with Brahmins (who, along with Yadavs, are the most powerful voting bloc in this constituency). Can anyone with local knowledge confirm this? Also, what are Poonam Mahajan's chances? Is she viewed favourably?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 13 Mar 2014 22:16

^^^ Poonam Mahajan hoo ?

HDN Yadav's anti incumbency -- at least I have not heard about.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 13 Mar 2014 22:17

nageshks wrote:Also, what are Poonam Mahajan's chances? Is she viewed favourably?

viewed ok.. chances - 40:60..

she will win if MNS helps BJP.. else, no.. too much ROP and Yuppie vote in that part of mumbai. i have analyzed that constituency on this thread few pages ago. http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1603883

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 22:18

and if LohPurush and "Storm Auntie" had her way

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Mar 2014 22:29

gandharva wrote:3rd List of Candidates for Lok Sabha Election 2014

http://www.bjp.org/media-resources/pres ... ction-2014

- Kum. Shobha Karandlaje from Udupi Chikmagalur
- Shri G.S. Basavaraj from Tumkur

BS Yeddyurappa's followers from KJP have been accommodated. There was some resistance in BJP Karnataka for that.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Mar 2014 22:33

Coming home of BSY is for better. BJP would not have lost Karnataka Assembly had he continued .

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Mar 2014 22:35

gandharva wrote:3rd List of Candidates for Lok Sabha Election 2014

http://www.bjp.org/media-resources/pres ... ction-2014

- In Muzaffarpur, Bihar, Capt.(Retd.) Jainarain Prasad Nishad, ex-JD(U) MP, makes way for his son Ajay Nishad.
- In Hazaribagh, Jharkhand, Yashwant Sinha makes way for his son Jayant Sinha.
- In Mumbai North Central, Maharashtra, Smt. Poonam Mahajan, daughter of Pramod Mahajan, is nominated as candidate.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 22:36

Atri wrote:
nageshks wrote:Also, what are Poonam Mahajan's chances? Is she viewed favourably?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai_Nor ... stituency)

Check the people who made it to Lok sabha from this seat. Seems like BJP giving away to Priya Dutt. from 2009 till day no news of Poonam mahajan. last time she went to MNS for ticket . there was fight as to she not be given ticket - I agree, BJP is wasting ticket here except MNS and NaMO does something magical.

Of all the INC Mumbai Candidates , Priya Dutt seems to have some glory around her - atleast media management is good. She does not do stupid things

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 22:43

Southern obsession with fair skin continues.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Mar 2014 22:43

Supratik wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Open magazine ko kahan se leak milgaya? Bunkum info

Not impossible. According to my estimates Muslim growth rate is 50% higher in Assam, WB (20+ vs 10+), 200% higher in Kerala (9 vs 3)and 30-40% higher in UP + UK (30+ vs 20+).

I already crunched the numbers, even with the numbers they have put out and the leaks on other states, M pop goes to 14.05% nationwide. Overall their growth rate has come down from 29% to 24%. It is just that the as a nation the pop rate was expected to be 19% but it ended up being 17% (So their share is slightly higher than what i expected 14.05 instead of 13.95). So overall it is on expected lines if the leak is right. I am not worried. In 3-4 decades their pop shd stabilize at 16-16.5% provided we fence. Deportations and reconversions in Namo regime can push them back to 12-13% if we focus on that. Remember these numbers reflect residents, not citizens, so we have some room to reduce them by deportations. Any lets not waste this thread on this topic. My last on this.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 22:46

On panel expert from Calcutta says he won't be surpised if BJP gets more than 10%. As per him there is a strong reaction in middle class against Mamta wooing Muslims.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Mar 2014 22:49

Why is Ashwini Choubey's Name not there in the Bihar list? They still have to declare only 4 seats, if he not contesting?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Mar 2014 22:50

@muraliravi

I hope you are right. My nos are also giving between 14 to 14.2%. However, there are serious regional imbalances. Hope NaMo works on the BR immigration formulae if we are to save Assam, WB. KL nos are low and M population in transition except that it is going down slower than other communities - hence the increase. Don't know what to do with UP, UK, BH. It is this region which is feeding the increase in MH. Anyway OT. We will discuss when the census figures come out.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Mar 2014 22:58

fanne wrote:I think 26-27 seats in MP is a sure shot win

Gujarat, Rajasthan, and MP may be a clean sweep for BJP. 26+25+29 for total of 80.
Congress may not contest many seats in these states as there is a definite Modi wave there.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 23:02

Must read! pretty accurate depiction of situation on the ground.

ग्राउंड रिपोर्ट: नरेंद्र मोदी पर बनारस का बयान

जोशी लड़े तो एक न देंगे. कुछ नहीं किए हैं पांच साल में. और गर मोदी आए तो. देंगे और मुहल्ला का भी वोट डलवाएंगे पूरा

http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/ground-r ... 57633.html

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Mar 2014 23:03

Mort Walker wrote:
fanne wrote:I think 26-27 seats in MP is a sure shot win
Gujarat, Rajasthan, and MP may be a clean sweep for BJP. 26+25+29 for total of 80.
Congress may not contest many seats in these states as there is a definite Modi wave there.

For BJP to hit 200, they need to absolutely get 100 seats from Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa and UT's.

They should easily manage, 22+24+22+8+15+1+3 = 95 seats. They need to push hard and get 5 more here.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Mar 2014 23:05

nageshks wrote:
Sanku wrote:Sushma Swaraj from Vidisha. That is almost a 100% certain win.
100% win for Congress? She is standing on a knife edge. She had to scold cadres, because they are all unenthusiastic about campaigning for a woman who is seen as sabotaging BJP. If she does not act to correct the perception soon, she will lose the seat, and no SSC, or NaMo will be able to help her. If she wants to get back to Parliament, she had better get her act together fast.

Vidisha is a safe seat for BJP. MP CM Chouhan is from Vidisha and his family is there. It explains why SS went to Bhopal to visit with Chouhan earlier as he can definitely help her there.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Mar 2014 23:08

muraliravi wrote: For BJP to hit 200, they need to absolutely get 100 seats from Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa and UT's.

They should easily manage, 22+24+22+8+15+1+3 = 95 seats. They need to push hard and get 5 more here.

Muraliji,

On the low end, 22+26+22 from Guj, MP, Raj. I think pushing hard for 5 more is possible. In MH, the Hindi speaking part in Vidharba near Nagpur is essentially like MP and there is a Modi wave there.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Mar 2014 23:11

Re: WB nos. The INC should win 2-3 seats in the Muslim belt (Murshidabad, Malda). They have loyally voted for INC and are the prime infiltration points in WB. So it will be a surprise if they don't win. Left vote has declined to 25-30%. Perhaps a further chunk of Muslim votes have moved to TMC. My hunch is that the left has only 5-6% of M votes (25%). The Hindus still voting for the left are hold-outs still hoping for the revolution and those who benefited from left rule. About 5% of the Hindu vote has shifted to the BJP.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 23:19

Pre-Poll survey predicts BJP sweep in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka. Congress to get shock in Maharashtra

NEW DELHI: A pre-poll survey today projected Naredra Modi-led BJP sweeping Gujarat,
Rajasthan and Karnataka and the party-led NDA giving a big jolt to ruling
Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections.

The
NDTV-Hansa Research survey, which released the electoral projections of 319
seats in 12 states today, says AIADMK is projected to win 27 out of 39 Lok Sabha
seats. It has predicted only 10 seats for DMK.

Out of 319 seats, the
survey gives NDA 16 ..

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 23:22

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 Mar 2014 23:23

About SS, irrespective of anything she has done, BJP karyakartha's must get her to win. Every seat is important.
Even if it LKA or Paswan, each seat would matter in the final countdown because NaMo forming govt will be a touch and go event. He should not be left at the alter of MB or JJ or BJD looking for support and diluting his agenda.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Mar 2014 23:26

If the RJ nos are correct it should be 25-0.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 23:27

Supratik wrote:If the RJ nos are correct it should be 25-0.

Yes Sir, that's why to seperat grain from the chaff i am not posting screenshots fro seat projections.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 23:29

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 13 Mar 2014 23:35

7 seats for BJP+ . If they get INLD in then all 10.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 13 Mar 2014 23:35

gandharva wrote:Southern obsession with fair skin continues.

I don't think it's to do with fair skin.

If you want to discuss fair skin obsession, it is an all India malaise.