Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

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Rudradev
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Posts: 4408
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Rudradev »

ramana wrote: 30 Aug 2025 06:26 Knowing the Indian capabilities revealed in Operation Sindoor, what can Pakistan do to protect itself from those capabilities?
For instance, evacuate their planes beyond the Indus to be safe from the IAF.
Build more runways in airbases.
Convert highway stretches to air strips. Have new trailer-based ammo and fuel stations on highways
What else?
If I were them, I would settle in for a Hezbollah style long war. Acquire thousands of cheap but lethal/destructive drones & ballistic missiles. Train thousands of 2-3 man teams to transport, assemble, fire, disassemble, move on. Have them operate throughout border areas in Punjab & Sindh in a semi-autonomous manner, melting into own civilian population between missions. Have them fire dozens to hundreds of drones/rockets/BMs per day, every day, into civilian targets in India (villages, temple towns, tier 2/3 cities, farmlands) continuously for months & years on end. When possible combine with ordering BAT style armed teams, aided by local M guides & support, to cross and commit massacres & other atrocities (remember Nuh episode in Rajasthan).

The idea is

1) to saturate and exhaust India's defence grid on the super-cheap, so that major strikes cannot be seen coming among the continuous surge of relatively minor attacks.
2) to eat away at economic activity and political support for BJP state/national government by keeping the entire population of all Indian border states, upto 200-300 km inside the border, in a state of perpetual and long term insecurity.
3) to ensure that any Indian retaliation (like Israeli retaliation today) can be portrayed, in the increasingly powerful information war domain, as aggression against civilians, human rights violations etc (with all of the multi-domain repercussions this can be exploited to yield, both among M communities in India and in various countries worldwide where they have strong lobbying & propaganda networks).
4) If possible, to draw Indian ground forces into Pakistani urban/exurban areas for an asymmetric conflict such as IDF fought against Hezbollah in 2007— it's MUCH easier to set the terms of success & claim victory in this sort of conflict than a conventional war given the imbalance that Op Sindoor clearly revealed.


They have learned that they (not just the jihadi tanzeems, but the "conventional" armed forces of Pakistan) are completely overmatched in a traditional contest with India and cannot hope for anything more than to be crushed, even in a contained & limited conventional war. Their best option is to lean fully into the asymmetric conflict — not just as an extra means of destabilizing & tying down Indian security forces through Jihadi terrorism (the 1990—2014 model) but as a core warfighting doctrine itself.
syam
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Posts: 825
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by syam »

Just my 2 paisa analysis of recent events:

With this op success, we simply evolved into a new tier. We are in new waters. Within Indian subcontinent region, we literally became the de facto big daddy.
Can any one challenge us in Indian subcontinent region?
Our geography is gods' gift. It's literal fortress. It's always been. That's why they propped up Pakis as counter to India all these decades.

With this new reality setting in, every global power became very cautious. Most of the old expertise no longer useful. As usual we may not do any proactive actions. But Mudiji might try to leverage this new position to expand our gdp to 5-10 trillion $ bracket among other things.

Recent SCO show set the new actions in motion. Mudiji will broker the peace b/w Russia and Ukraine on Russian by extension China terms.

In this context, I made few observations on China. (missing chola posts :(( )

China is going for G2 setting. Not the G2 we discuss here. I am talking about Authoritarian block with china as leader and democratic block with India as leader. It's not about replacing US with India. It's about kicking the west(racist white) in the face. They are scripting a big insult to white west.

I didn't explore this path much as it is new thing for me too. Democracies are failing all over the world. Who really want to lord over something chaotic and loss making venture like that? China if it is really that 5d chess guy as we claim, must have thought of it too. They would stay far away from that mess and exploit any chances if they get. Mostly on transactional basis.

West will over-react in near future to India's new position. I see Trumps tariffs in this new light. I still believe he is not that evil and mastermind guy. He is just stupid old white guy who prioritizes his own greedy agenda. He thinks he is the main character in the story. When Mudiji scored big, he wanted Mudiji to become his sidekick. So that he can prance on the global stage like peacock. That's why he was so desperate in recent weeks. He wanted to showcase everyone that all his friends listen to him and everything happening around the world is result of his master genius plans and actions. :((

If I am writing our new Bharath success story, it will be -
chapter 1: Op Sindoor
chapter 2: Russian-Ukrain ceasefire.

btw, if west tries any civil unrest in India and meddle in our elections, it will be final defeat of democratic systems in our world. We are the only functional democratic country in the world right now. If Mudiji gets dethroned, it will be death of democratic systems. :D

So many new things we gonna witness in coming months.
vonkabra
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Posts: 114
Joined: 09 Oct 2003 11:31

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vonkabra »

Rudradev wrote: 03 Sep 2025 10:47 They have learned that they (not just the jihadi tanzeems, but the "conventional" armed forces of Pakistan) are completely overmatched in a traditional contest with India and cannot hope for anything more than to be crushed, even in a contained & limited conventional war. Their best option is to lean fully into the asymmetric conflict — not just as an extra means of destabilizing & tying down Indian security forces through Jihadi terrorism (the 1990—2014 model) but as a core warfighting doctrine itself.
Your logic is absolutely correct. However, thankfully, their capabilities of self delusion leads them to believe that somehow they have triumphed against India, so they will continue down the conventional path. After all, they need to continue to impress their own junta so that nobody objects to all the funds being allocated to the military, and that happens by buying lots of shiny toys which can be displayed in parades. The other issue is that China won't profit if they adopt a low intensive war doctrine. Finally, given that country's state, a lot (if not most) of the weapons they provide for this kind of warfare will end up being used within their own borders...
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