Mandal versus Kamandal politics on play. When minority votes go more than 30% Kamandal comes into play. People go beyond their caste. When minority votes go less than 10% then Mandal politics takes shape & caste plays a role. Watch this video to know more.
I was actually discussing this scenario with the Founder of @peoplesinsight when he gave the term Kamandal & Mandal. Credit to him for giving the term.
See the 3.05 minutes video in the link above.
Today I learned that Hindu consolidation happens automatically atleast in Bihar when minorities are above 30%. Don't know if it is prevalent in whole India.
What exactly prompt the usual secular Hindus to behave this way? Discrimination, intimidation and other hostilities? This peculiar situation needs to be highlighted through media all over India. But I doubt Modi will permit it. Modi is very strict on not to defame Islam.
Another useful information from @sreeramjvc given below.
#BiharElections | JVC's (＠sreeramjvc) #ExitPoll on Times Now
Yadavs the Gamechanger?
- Scenario 1: 18% Yadavs vote for NDA
Outcome:
- RJD to win 8-10 seats in Yadav belt
- NDA retains significant chunk of seats
- Scenario 2: 6% Yadavs vote for NDA
Outcome:
- MGB to sweep Yadav cluster
- Could flip the Bihar mandate
＠MadhavGK with analysis.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 08:41
by williams
Prashant Kishor probably knew the outcome and did not run
Based on eci trends, looks like NDA will end up with 175-200 seats.
Below post around 9.50 AM.
NDA 102
INDI 31
eci trends
will NDA cross 200 is only thing left in doubt
NDA 38
INDI 10
sweep confirmed
Pradeep gupta is the big loser, apart from Tejasvi and papu of cuz
How can one be so sure of the final results now?
This early lead could be due to pro NDA booths counting in the initial stages, no?
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 10:16
by williams
Usually the postal ballots get counted first and so early trends usually tell us which way the wind is blowing. But I think NDA may hover around 160 seats.
malayalam channels have BJP at 61 and jdu at 77
when eci has BJP at 70 and jdu at 71.
such frauds trying to underplay BJP to play into secular narratives
Below posted at 10.20 AM.
eci trends
NDA 161
INDI 55.
24 seats left to come
175+ loading for sure
Why only West Bengal election, People should also watch Bihar Results on News18 because their numbers come straight from counting centres, not just agency feeds. 46 locations, 150+ reports, and a control room verifying every input. That’s real election coverage, not guesswork.
#ResultsWithNews18
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 12:11
by Mort Walker
It's not over yet. What we're seeing are initial trends and ECI has NOT declared any seats won.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 12:15
by williams
I miss the old NDTV - glum faces appearing to be neutral but writhing with internal pain when this kind of results come out
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 13:07
by uddu
Abki baar Do sau paaar will happen?
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 13:20
by williams
uddu wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 13:07
Abki baar Do sau paaar will happen?
#WATCH | Bihar Assembly Election Results | Litti Chokha, Rasgulla and other items being prepared at the residence of RJD leader Veena Devi in Mokama ahead of the beginning of counting of votes for #BiharElections2025.
Veena Devi is contesting against JDU's Anant Kumar Singh and Jan Suraaj's Priyadarshi Piyush from the Mokama assembly seat.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 15:52
by Mollick.R
As per latest trends from ECI site
grand old party KHANGRESS is getting folded into JUST 1 ONE SEAT.
INC leading in only 1 seat in Bihar now,
fittingly its the 70% Muslim Kishanganj seat.
Real Muslim league indeed
Tejaswi will likely lose raghopur in my view. because the election is in the seat has become totally bipolar. usually RJD used to benefit from split in opposing votes between multiple candidates
The two Muslim parties are in a tough fight to decide which one is the bigger M party in Bihar.
AIMIM currently leading in 6 seats (all from Seemanchal), while COngress leads in 5 seats (3 from Seemanchal).
Who will triumph in the end.
Smaller battles in the Bihar election
unlike in 2020, AIMIM has heavily cut M votes in seemanchal, in seats where they are not winning.
In 2020, AIMIM either won or got nothing. This time they are getting votes across seats
So finally Congress starting losing the Muslim votes. That is a strategic blunder from Islam POV. Any idea what caused it?
Below one posted at 12.34 PM.
key takeaways from BIhar verdict
Women vote has delivered delta cutting across caste
AIMIM has cut M vote in pockets
BJP is party #1 of Bihar
RJD still retains core votebank and can regain any time when fatigue/freebies etc go out of fashion or when NDA is fragmented
Kamkhaya analytics @kamakhya_X was spot on.
11% vote gap, 180+ seats for NDA
Mollick.R wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:52
As per latest trends from ECI site
grand old party KHANGRESS is getting folded into JUST 1 ONE SEAT.
Rumor is Pappu has left the country already.
What you really mean, is that he is going back to his country.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 16:34
by KL Dubey
So it is a 200+ result now.
BJP contested 101 seats, with an amazing 90+% success rate as of now! This is even higher than in Maharashtra (BJP 89% success rate).
I spoke too soon on AIMIM. Now it seems they have more seats than INC. So it indeed seems that the green vote has deserted MGB.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 17:53
by Mollick.R
Nitish do not have a political heir.
I wish he enjoys CM ship for 4 years & then merges his JDU with BJP.
Then takes Sanyass from active politics due old age / health issues.
But I know its a wishful thinking.......... not gonna happen & may not benefit saffron party.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 18:04
by chetak
SRajesh wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 14:53
Chetakji
In this Bihar election Mr Total Bihari has been very silent
Is it because he’s with TMC??
SRajesh ji,
He is in shock.
As it is, his family now forcibly includes a mulla and his future is fading fast.
in next round, it's unlikely that he will get a chance again as the SIR bulldozer will clean out the pampered pretenders from across the border
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 20:24
by chetak
this is the first time in a long while where palturam may not have the option of jumping ship and forming the govt with the opposition, which has been / is his standard practice, jump the divide as and when the mood or urge overtakes him
The BJP may be able to lock in their victory without interference from meddlers from either side who may wish to topple the govt
nitishwa will be the CM, but the reins of the govt will be managed by the BJP which has no other option for growth but to look beyond nitishwa, as and when the time comes
PK, the khujliwal replacement from the BIF has struck out completely
सूपड़ा साफ onlee
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 21:03
by SRajesh
Chetakji
I feel that PK is a 'Lambe daud ka Goda'
He knows that Nitish's days are numbered. (I dont mean that he will attain salvation sorry no!! but politically speaking).
Pappu and Chor ka Beta will find it difficult from now onwards.
It's a dangerous trend that Owaisi is wiining beyond the borders of Razakar belt. Make no mistake that he is nothing more than a Razakar (just adding a AI to the party doesnt make him Indian). If BJP are funding him they should be prepared for another demand of 'Separate Electorate' a la Morley-Minto type. And if happens then that would destroy the nation. I get a sneaking feeling that Oawisi is working slowly towards it.
No, PK has everything going for him except long term funding and Media support. If he gets even a 10th of what Khujli got from Soros gang I think he will make substantial gains!!
TYhe upper caste are warming up to him!!. He needs OBC block and SC/ST. Once Nitish goes Kurmis are going to ditch JDU. Yadavs I am not sure though!!
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 21:18
by krithivas
Credits to unknown - “Jan nayak becomes Jan naalayak”.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 21:25
by chetak
SRajesh wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 21:03
Chetakji I feel that PK is a 'Lambe daud ka Goda'
He knows that Nitish's days are numbered. (I dont mean that he will attain salvation sorry no!! but politically speaking).
Pappu and Chor ka Beta will find it difficult from now onwards.
It's a dangerous trend that Owaisi is wiining beyond the borders of Razakar belt. Make no mistake that he is nothing more than a Razakar (just adding a AI to the party doesnt make him Indian). If BJP are funding him they should be prepared for another demand of 'Separate Electorate' a la Morley-Minto type. And if happens then that would destroy the nation. I get a sneaking feeling that Oawisi is working slowly towards it.
No, PK has everything going for him except long term funding and Media support. If he gets even a 10th of what Khujli got from Soros gang I think he will make substantial gains!!
TYhe upper caste are warming up to him!!. He needs OBC block and SC/ST. Once Nitish goes Kurmis are going to ditch JDU. Yadavs I am not sure though!!
SRajesh ji,
when the guy refused to contest he lost the confidence of the people who may have been rooting for him
That was followed by his dismal performance at the hustings and his very poor choice of candidates.
After this massive debacle, the voters will not trust him.
he will go the khujliwal way because like khujliwal, he has lost his credibility.
If he hadn't hyped himself so much and kept his mouth under control he would have not damaged himself and his reputation quite as much and he has exposed his hollow claims to be able to perform miracles
almost everything about him screams "khujliwal" and the rumors are that he is another congi creation (BIF) to split the NDA votes.
It looks like there is something dark in his needlessly opaque past that may have been used to hobble him, and why not...........
This 'vote-chori' narrative has been totally rejected: @KARAN_author
In the Bhojpur and Magadh regions, it was also a guilt vote. They hadn’t voted for the BJP and Modi Ji in 2024, so this time, they came out and voted: @sreeramjvc speaks to @roypranesh
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 22:00
by Hriday
Had Rahul Gandhi's suggestion that cheap data will be removed if Congress comes to power made an impact on Bihar assembly election ? See the news link below dated Nov 6. May be it had become viral in WhatsApp sharing. Outsiders may have missed it.
Rahul Gandhi hit out at PM Narendra Modi over his "cheap data" remark, saying low-cost internet has made youth addicted to Instagram Reels instead of creating jobs.
..
Pointing out that mindless scrolling of Reels only diverted people’s attention, Rahul Gandhi said: “Narendra Modi did not tell you that when you make Reels and watch the videos, the money doesn’t come to you. The money goes to Ambani; it goes to Jio.”
..
Modi gave you addiction. Earlier, people would get addicted to alcohol and drugs. Today, Instagram and Facebook have the same effect. Youth today watch Reels and share with one another 24 hours. But does it fill your pockets,” he asked the crowd assembled at Purnia for his Bihar election phase-2 campaign rally.
..
PM Modi on multiple occasions has said that mobile data in India “is now within everyone’s reach.” Highlighting the NDA government’s push on digital solution’s Modi on October 10 said: “There was a time when 1 GB of data cost up to ₹269, but now it’s available for just ₹15. That’s cheaper than a cup of tea. Big connection at a small cost – that’s the digital revolution of the Modi government.”
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 14 Nov 2025 22:48
by Jay
Mollick.R wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:52
As per latest trends from ECI site
grand old party KHANGRESS is getting folded into JUST 1 ONE SEAT.
They might have won more seats if yuvraj pappu had gone on to thailand before the elections. GOI should cancel his passport and make his stay in India permanent. The more people see him, the more they will vote for Modi-Shah.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 15 Nov 2025 03:25
by RCase
Hriday wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 22:00
Had Rahul Gandhi's suggestion that cheap data will be removed if Congress comes to power made an impact on Bihar assembly election ? See the news link below dated Nov 6. May be it had become viral in WhatsApp sharing. Outsiders may have missed it.
...
Pointing out that mindless scrolling of Reels only diverted people’s attention, Rahul Gandhi said: “Narendra Modi did not tell you that when you make Reels and watch the videos, the money doesn’t come to you. The money goes to Ambani; it goes to Jio.”
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Neverwho Mountbatter also had similar twisted logic in not developing infrastructure in border areas and keeping them backward, lest the enemy can advance faster into the hinterland. Indra Durgadevi wanted to restrict access to TV, electronics, phones etc., lest people enjoy such luxuries and get smarter. Such nonsense peddled by the Khangress was a direct consequence of poor quality roads, cars, infrastructure and insane scarcities.
Mollick.R wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:52
As per latest trends from ECI site
grand old party KHANGRESS is getting folded into JUST 1 ONE SEAT.
They might have won more seats if yuvraj pappu had gone on to thailand before the elections. GOI should cancel his passport and make his stay in India permanent. The more people see him, the more they will vote for Modi-Shah.
Well when he goes to those foreign lands, he recharges himself with new information and comes back with the better master plan to lose more.
If he stops traveling, he may not get the creative energy to come up with more intelligent screw-up ideas. In 2026 Bengal and Tamil Nadu needs his fresh mind.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 15 Nov 2025 08:35
by Deans
Some takeaways from an initial look at the Bihar data, which belies the preconceived views of opposition supporters.
There was no difference in vote share of NDA between phase 1 & 2. So it is not as if the Delhi bomb blast made difference.
The MGB did much better in close contests. While it won 12% of overall seats, it won 50% of close contests. This is the opposite of what would happen if the election was rigged.
The NDA vote share was 46.7% If there was a genuine MGB (2 tier contest) it would have been a closer contest.
In the most media aware seats like Patna (where vote chori /SIR allegations should have had the most traction, the NDA made the biggest gains.
The MGB, particularly Cong, need to work on alliances rather than raise issues that had little resonance with the voter.
Without getting into details of SIR revision, while it was alleged that 89 lac voters were left out of the election process, the actual voter list has 18 lac new voters ( 21.5 lac added and 3.66 lac deleted). The number of those deleted is consistent with death rates. Those added are less than the number of new voters, based on birth rates, so the rolls were not stuffed with fake voters.
Every allegation of vote rigging was made without corresponding proof that it affected the counting/voting and all were refuted by the ECI - though on social media, only the allegation was repeated, not the explanation. For e.g. `voters not allowed to vote after voting was slowed down' turned out to be 3 voters who arrived after the official close of polling, but were allowed to vote after the returning officer's intervention.
In Sasaram, where an allegation was made of rigging, because feed to a couple of CCTV's were cut (if would have been remarkable if Bihar had 24 hour uninterrupted power) and a `truck with EVM's entered' - which was true because it was legitimately carrying EVM's from booth to counting centre' a relatively lightweight RLM candidate (not BJP/JDU) won by 20000 votes. There was also a 20k margin of victory for the BJP in Hajipur -
too big for any rigging allegation to be credible.
More women voted than men, though there are fewer women voters on the rolls. Women turnout was 7% higher then men, accounting the increase in voter turnout. However, this is consistent with previous elections, so it is not as if cash transfers made a difference
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 15 Nov 2025 09:02
by Sachin
williams wrote:Usually the postal ballots get counted first and so early trends usually tell us which way the wind is blowing. But I think NDA may hover around 160 seats.
Postal ballots gets counted first, but may not be fully reliable to predict the trend. In the Tripura State Assembly elections there was a neck-to-neck match between the commies and BJP, and at one point of time commies were actually leading. News outlets like Kairali TV in Kerala were just freaking out with joy. And that is when Amit Shah made a statement that EVMs were certain areas have not been opened for counting yet, and he was confident that the tide will change when that happens. He was 100% accurate, and the BJP trounced the commies. Kairali TV crew marched off to the nearest bar/BEVCO outlet for drinking away their sorrows.
NOTE: There have been concerns raised about the secrecy of Postal ballots, especially in uniformed organisations like the police.
KL Dubey wrote:Jan suraaj party is proceeding to its param-prashant (supremely peaceful) state of 0 seats.
They have company in the form of CPI (Communist Party of India !!!) who are also Sampoojya (Poojyam in Malayalam == 0).
Deans wrote:Every allegation of vote rigging was made without corresponding proof that it affected the counting/voting and all were refuted by the ECI - though on social media, only the allegation was repeated, not the explanation.
The process is that all evidences (like CCTV footages), EVMs etc would now be secured for the next 45 days. This is the time window for bringing up any complaints to the Election Commission. And this has to be given on record (not PPT presentation in some auditorium) and on oath. If within 45 days EC does not get any such complaints, EC will formally inform High Court registry that no complaints have been received and now it plans to clean up the EVMs and discard the CCTV footages etc. Notice; how Pappu and Co only brings up allegations after this time window, and often 6-12 months later.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 15 Nov 2025 10:02
by chetak
As always, often abused but never noticed until the tables were unexpectedly turned
This is why India's non BJP politicos and every single foreign govt with intentions of dabbling in and disturbing the peace within India and foreign NGO's all over the world, no matter their size or reach, with any ideas of interfering in India fear the RSS's reach, capabilities and narrative changing abilities.
It mobilizes almost instantaneously in emergencies and it does so like no other organization operating in the social sphere in the world can. Its dedication and perseverance is legendary
It is the quintessential congi nightmare, the one entity that these anti nationals fear above all others and the one entity that haunts the mafioso family through thick and thin
Silent, all pervasive, and committed to the Indian nationality and its civilizational ethos
A deep-dive into how the RSS’s massive “Mission Trishul” campaign—with over 50,000 meetings and targeted voter mobilisation—played a key role in the NDA’s strong Bihar mandate and how the same strategy is being prepared for West Bengal 2026.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Posted: 15 Nov 2025 11:19
by chetak
krithivas wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 21:18
Credits to unknown - “Jan nayak becomes Jan naalayak”.
No need to explain who mumtaz patel is
Mumtaz Patel@mumtazpatels
No excuses ,No blame game No introspection , it’s time to look within and accept reality. Till when will countless loyal ground workers who have stayed with the party through thick and thin …wait to see success … instead it’s failure after failure due to power concentrated in the hands of few who are totally disconnected with ground reality and are responsible for the misery and rout of the grand old party time and again. And mark my words these same people will be rewarded again and again because they have made themselves indispensable with their control and power !!
