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Mandal versus Kamandal politics on play. When minority votes go more than 30% Kamandal comes into play. People go beyond their caste. When minority votes go less than 10% then Mandal politics takes shape & caste plays a role. Watch this video to know more.
I was actually discussing this scenario with the Founder of @peoplesinsight when he gave the term Kamandal & Mandal. Credit to him for giving the term.
See the 3.05 minutes video in the link above.
Today I learned that Hindu consolidation happens automatically atleast in Bihar when minorities are above 30%. Don't know if it is prevalent in whole India.
What exactly prompt the usual secular Hindus to behave this way? Discrimination, intimidation and other hostilities? This peculiar situation needs to be highlighted through media all over India. But I doubt Modi will permit it. Modi is very strict on not to defame Islam.
Another useful information from @sreeramjvc given below.
#BiharElections | JVC's (＠sreeramjvc) #ExitPoll on Times Now
Yadavs the Gamechanger?
- Scenario 1: 18% Yadavs vote for NDA
Outcome:
- RJD to win 8-10 seats in Yadav belt
- NDA retains significant chunk of seats
- Scenario 2: 6% Yadavs vote for NDA
Outcome:
- MGB to sweep Yadav cluster
- Could flip the Bihar mandate
Usually the postal ballots get counted first and so early trends usually tell us which way the wind is blowing. But I think NDA may hover around 160 seats.
malayalam channels have BJP at 61 and jdu at 77
when eci has BJP at 70 and jdu at 71.
such frauds trying to underplay BJP to play into secular narratives
Below posted at 10.20 AM.
eci trends
NDA 161
INDI 55.
24 seats left to come
175+ loading for sure
Why only West Bengal election, People should also watch Bihar Results on News18 because their numbers come straight from counting centres, not just agency feeds. 46 locations, 150+ reports, and a control room verifying every input. That’s real election coverage, not guesswork.
#WATCH | Bihar Assembly Election Results | Litti Chokha, Rasgulla and other items being prepared at the residence of RJD leader Veena Devi in Mokama ahead of the beginning of counting of votes for #BiharElections2025.
Veena Devi is contesting against JDU's Anant Kumar Singh and Jan Suraaj's Priyadarshi Piyush from the Mokama assembly seat.
INC leading in only 1 seat in Bihar now,
fittingly its the 70% Muslim Kishanganj seat.
Real Muslim league indeed
Tejaswi will likely lose raghopur in my view. because the election is in the seat has become totally bipolar. usually RJD used to benefit from split in opposing votes between multiple candidates
The two Muslim parties are in a tough fight to decide which one is the bigger M party in Bihar.
AIMIM currently leading in 6 seats (all from Seemanchal), while COngress leads in 5 seats (3 from Seemanchal).
Who will triumph in the end.
Smaller battles in the Bihar election
unlike in 2020, AIMIM has heavily cut M votes in seemanchal, in seats where they are not winning.
In 2020, AIMIM either won or got nothing. This time they are getting votes across seats
So finally Congress starting losing the Muslim votes. That is a strategic blunder from Islam POV. Any idea what caused it?
Below one posted at 12.34 PM.
key takeaways from BIhar verdict
Women vote has delivered delta cutting across caste
AIMIM has cut M vote in pockets
BJP is party #1 of Bihar
RJD still retains core votebank and can regain any time when fatigue/freebies etc go out of fashion or when NDA is fragmented
Kamkhaya analytics @kamakhya_X was spot on.
11% vote gap, 180+ seats for NDA
I wish he enjoys CM ship for 4 years & then merges his JDU with BJP.
Then takes Sanyass from active politics due old age / health issues.
But I know its a wishful thinking.......... not gonna happen & may not benefit saffron party.
