The two nation theory was a fiction before 1947, but 1947 Partition created two nations, and I would venture to say 1971 breakup created three nations.
The merger proposal by RajeshA ji is quite relevant, because it proves two things, that India is confident enough to take in a large number of Muslims despite an apprehension that giving voting rights to such a large number will fundamentally change the demographic scenario within India (noting that Turkey is being rebuffed by EU for similar reasons). Secondly it will also prove that Bangladesh is confident enough to merge with an India and does not fear its majority Hindu rule, which was the main reason that prompted some subcontinental Muslims to support the formation of Pakistan.
I have been talking with a friend of mine who has connection with Islamist political circles in BD. He was quite precise in his response when I sounded out the merger proposal with him. What he said was that of course we would like to get voting rights back if we could get back within Indian Union, because he understands and agrees with my argument that 1947 was a mistake for subcontinental Muslims, even if we just consider the fact that we need voting rights within the greater Indian polity to secure the water sources that provide sustenance to our geographic areas. But he said that he is confident that we will never be taken in again, once we have made this mistake and opted ourselves out from the greater subcontinental polity. Instead what will happen is we will be given a lot of hope for such union, but in effect, we will be drawn in closer, so we come under increasing economic and political influence and an eventual stranglehold, the sole aim and goal being to keep us weak and divided enough to even raise our voice for our rights or to engage in efforts to secure our future.
So to summarize, yes there is recognition of the fact that it will be advantageous for Bangladesh to be invited back into a full merger with India, but anything short of that goal will be treated with a suspicion to keep us weak and a design to make us a dependent satellite state.
But this is from a man (my friend) who has a lot of foresight and some rudimentary understanding of strategic thinking. Mere mortals and Abduls will choke to hear even such “outlandish” ideas. Here I want to go into it a bit why it is so, specially at a time while there is ongoing shifting of geopolitical tectonic plates in WANA.
Islam is a dynamic force like other similar social forces. Specially in this age of globalization, it seems that it has gained some velocity. What happens in the very far future for older surviving religious memes, such as Sanatan Dharma or relatively newer ones that are still relevant on the world stage, such as Buddhism, Christianity and Islam, are debatable. But one thing is certain that they will remain influential in the next few decades, if not centuries. Ideas such as Marxist communism may not have survived in its original form, but they left behind their legacy probably in having a positive socialist egalitarian influence in the debate for a more successful form of governance. Similarly, important social forces will continue to leave behind their legacies in some form or shape, such as secular humanism, that arose in the Christian domain.
One of the core ideas of Islam is that the Islamic community must have some kind of unity, regardless of the geographic spread or the locations of various Islamic communities of different ethnicities. Some simple indications are:
- all Muslims pray towards Mecca
- all Muslims are obligated to perform Haj at least once in a lifetime if they can afford it
- all Muslims believe in the same one God, the same last prophet and the same Holy book
- there is no marriage bar between Muslims of different regions of the world (I myself have looked for a wife among the Kyrgyz, but eventually married a Korean, while another Bangladeshi friend is trying with a Russian Tatar Muslim, just to give some examples
), so Islam is a force against racism and pragmatic tool for ethnic integration among diverse world populations. If racism and ethnocentrism is an evil then Islam is an antidote even in some limited form
The above is true regardless of the major divisions such as Shia and Sunni and other minor divisions among them and of course the ethnic and nationality difference among them.
What eventually will happen with this unity is up for debate. The last 100 years saw the disintegration of some major Islamic polities such as Ottoman and the British India and saw the rise of some forces such as Brotherhood, Salafi etc., the various mixtures of which have influenced quite a few events and incidents on the world stage. These real events together with campaigns by some quarters such as the Zionists and their followers on world stage, have pretty much put the entire Islamic community on the defensive and pushed them to a corner which gave rise to a realization that they are a vilified lot beyond redemption in the eyes of the world and they thus stand alone. This shared loneliness increased the sense of unity rather than making it less IMHO.
If Muslims can overcome some of their divisions and come closer together, then it is possible that they will seek allies among their neighbors. The gora West (including the Orthodox), as the traditional enemy and the status quo power that has worked to destroy and divide the Islamic polities, will never be trusted. This leaves then the Sinic and Hindu civilizations, which may become the other two major global powers on world stage.
Sometime in the future, it is possible that a cross road will appear for world history where either a Sino-Islamic axis or an Indo-Islamic axis will take place. Sinic civilization does not hold as much historical baggage as the Hindu civilization w.r.t Islam, but Sinic is also not as much of an intimate part of Islamic civilization, as the subcontinent is, which is shared by both Hindus and Muslims. Of course this cross road scenario may or may not take place, but there is some probability that it will, specially if Muslims become more evolved socially and understand their place in the world stage. The ongoing drama in WANA is an indication that the world of Islam is in some flux and its hard to tell where eventually it will end up.
East Bengal Muslims’ bitter experience with their fellow subcontinental Muslims from Punjab will not be easily forgotten, as India’s help will always be gratefully remembered in our times of difficulty. But a strategic direction for the subcontinent and relationships between states such as Bangladesh and India, will be affected by dynamics outside the subcontinent IMHO. What is up for debate is the degree of this outside influence, which will become clear in the coming decades I believe.
In the meantime, increasing CBM’s such as trade, investment, transit etc. should be viewed as similar pragmatic measures taken with much more hostile neighbors, such as PRC, just so there is no disappointment from unrealistic expectations.
Hasina led AL may be gone in the next election, because in BD, whenever a party comes to power, they have to satisfy the need of their cadre at different layers, which diminishes standard of governance, which inevitably angers the public. So its the usual see-saw as we have seen since 1991, where AL and BNP alternates in winning the election. So the current friendly policies with India may not continue if BNP wins the next election.
To reiterate, I think the internal dynamics within Bangladesh is not as important, as India’s relation with Islamic community in general, contingent on the possibility that the Islamic community will get more united in their approach and relationship with their local neighbors and choose to ally with emerging global powers such as PRC or India. There might be a question that why choose between PRC or India, why not have equal relationship or a more nuanced relationship with both, I think its certainly possible, as it is possible that there will not be much unity among Muslims, as is the case today, I guess we will find out in the coming years and decades. My feeling is that PRC may try to engineer this scenario, in its drive for supremacy, which is another possibility. For Islamic countries, it is possible that only one trusted and reliable center of knowledge and manufacturing will be sufficient for their needs, while others can be ignored.
About the problems that is inherent with the nature of the blind faith that is Islam, or more exactly the virulent exclusivity of this meme, IMHO, it can only be changed from within the Islamic community from their own effort, perhaps some unified effort at a global level, with further social evolutions of Islamic societies and their understanding of the urgency and the need for such changes. There are plenty of mechanisms for such changes which can be reactivated upon global consensus, Ijtihad is one such mechanism as B ji mentioned. It is not just limited with Shia, which was a very minor group before large scale conversion in the Iranian domain. But any efforts to influence events within Islamic communities from any power, will be looked at as unwelcome and hostile.
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