Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

[Amber G.]

dup post..

[Amber G.]

All that 60% enriched uranium? Even 400+ kg , as I said before, of it could fit in a small carry-on bag. (volume about 40 l). Could be anywhere—basement, bunker, or behind someone’s bookshelf. It’s “safe” as long as no one steals it (so… fingers crossed it's not next to someone’s cat food stash).

Okay looks like Vance is going to do something about it .
400kg of uranium missing after US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, JD Vance confirms

- US tells UN Security Council that strikes 'degraded' nuclear program..
- U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to one initial U.S. intelligence assessment.. { what I was commenting.. }
US airstrikes failed to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, sources say

[bala]

While we savor the temporary respite between Israel and Iran due to DJT, there are other issues which needs attention. One is the succession plan if any of supreme leader Ayatollah khamenei and the other is IRGC, the thug like organization which keeps law and order in Iran. Apparently the son of supreme leader, mojtaba khamenei is missing, who is a key figure since he controls Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and also has direct access to Russia and China. Meanwhile within Iran the remnants of IRGC are back cracking the whip on the public. Many Iranians have fled to neighboring nations like Armenia, Turkey, etc. Israel is picking up the pieces of missile destruction in many cities, some of its citizens are victims of the blast. There are reports that a fleet of trucks left Fordow prior to the MOAB destruction and perhaps the 400+ kg of enriched uranium was carted away. Iran in terms of facilities is bombed back at least 2 decades. Rebuilding Iran's nuclear ambition will take a long time. The people of Iran may rethink about clerics ruling over them.

[pravula]

An alternate theory is Fordow entrances were buried to stop any spec ops raid.

https://www.twz.com/air/tunnel-entrance ... -2-strikes

[Cybaru]

// DJT is serious about wanting to stop the war. Compared to that undeserving fluff called Obummer, ..... Hope he succeeds and brings peace to a world in turmoil.

Iran & Israel "don’t know what the F.... they’re doing", says US President Donald Trump < video clip>

Definitely ..Deserves ..

I think he deserves more than one medal. One for each war he stopped. India vs Pak, eyeeraaan vs Israel. <Clap .... Clap .... Clap>
We can ignore the fact that he keeps putting out anti India rhetoric and travel advisories.

[Amber G.]

Trump's belief in OSI613 was ....


May be not decades but may be few weeks?

[Amber G.]

I think he deserves more than one medal. One for each war he stopped. India vs Pak, eyeeraaan vs Israel. <Clap .... Clap .... Clap>
We can ignore the fact that he keeps putting out anti India rhetoric and travel advisories.

Last time it was Pakistan.. this time..

US Representative Buddy Carter has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering peace deal between Iran and Israel, and for bold action aimed at Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

[Cybaru]

You think DJT manages his own truth social account?

Nah, DeepState took that over... how else do you explain him telegraphing the moves before the B2s arrived?
To keep things safe from DeepState Pentagon had to work around things.... see below..
https://www.latintimes.com/military-of ... row-585495

Although military officials conducted the preparations in secret, Trump's social media posts and public comments gradually revealed enough details to signal to many observers that an attack was imminent. Six days before the strike, he wrote, "Everyone should evacuate Tehran!" in a Truth Social post. The next day, he revealed he left the G7 meeting in Canada for something "much bigger" than a ceasefire in the Middle East.

A military official told The Times that Trump was considered the "biggest threat to opsec," or operational security, due to his unpredictable social media activity, a concern shared by both the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command. Military planners feared the president was giving Iran too much advance warning of the forthcoming strikes.


To prevent a potential leak, the military launched two groups of B-2 bombers from Missouri on the day of the attack. Only one group was actually headed for Iran, flying undetected, while the other flew toward Guam as a diversion.

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the nation's highest-ranking military officer, later confirmed that the Guam-bound group was a "decoy."

https://x.com/Fritschner/status/1937115125049172118

[Jay]

Below video does a good job visualizing iran's NU program since the time the first treaty was signed back in 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmIm8jZwv6s

[Vayutuvan]

Last time it was Pakistan.. this time..

US Representative Buddy Carter has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering peace deal between Iran and Israel, and for bold action aimed at Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

[img...]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuOHYr0X0AA ... name=large[/img]

Start a change.org petition asking Nobel Committee to blacklist Trump forever. Du it.

[Ambar]

All things considered, I think this is the best Israel could have hoped for. Their objective was to destroy Iran's nuclear capability and severely degrade their ballistic missile program. In my opinion, this objective was always going to be near impossible to meet, so the partial, temporary success without losing any military assets is the best they could have achieved.

In a way, the way the war concluded, along with Trump’s unhinged antics and self-congratulatory messages, were so similar to India-Pakistan. If the US can lean on Israel not to attack Iran, even when the latter fired a ballistic missile and killed five people, then the same US will lean on India not to attack Pakistan.

I wouldn't be too surprised that the leaked intelligence assessment, which stated that Fordow is mostly intact and that the enriched uranium has long been moved, was correct. Iran knew this day was coming sooner or later, and if Hamas could build over 1,000 kilometers of tunnels in Gaza, then Iran can surely build pretty deep and high-quality tunnels to safely move its assets knowing they are a prime target.

Israel will have to reassess why 20% of Iranian ballistic missiles made it through but, more importantly, they will have to think about what's next, knowing Iran will race towards nukes and replace its expended missiles in no time.

[Amber G.]

Latest from Trump:


Trump attacks CNN and The New York Times for factually busting claims of any major damage to Iranian nuclear facilities as was earlier claimed by Trump. Iran can easily recover from the setback in few months as per media reports.

[Hriday]

If Iran had saved about 400 kg of 60% enriched Uranium, they will need centrifuges to reach weapon grade of 90%. Assuming Fordow is damaged, where and how the further enrichment will take place? Can it be done in secret?
Considering the level of infiltration of Mossad agents in Iran, it is unlikely that Iran can resume any major nuclear weapons program now. USA vice president J D Vance had announced that the next course of action is the follow up on the remaining enriched Uranium stockpile.
Hopefully Trump will see the merits of chasing the remaining Uranium and will not abandon it for Nobel peace prize. Also more intelligence reports are likely to be leaked in future about the existence of Uranium with Iran and that will be a major stumbling block to get Nobel prize.

[Aditya_V]

Look the way Iran has not been able to take out Israeli planes, Airbase or anything and backing down from the US. They will have to rebuild sites for building centrifges, that will take years, meanwhile the 400 kg of enriched Uranium will be tracked and retrieved, their ballistic missiles were made from Maraging steel and no composite, they used lighter warheads in some of them get higher velocity to get through during saturation attacks on civilian cities, but those unusually light warhead had high CEP making them useless against military targets

[SSridhar]

The biggest reason for Iran's capitulation, apart from the severe pasting that they received, was Russia's indifference on June 23 when Iranian FM met Putin. After gas-lighting everything everywhere, China has also kept mum especially after GBU-57. Iran was shown the riot act, in a way by both its adversaries & friends. It just had to succumb, which anyway looked inevitable.

[A_Gupta]

Counting down to the next strike:
https://www.youtube.com/live/JQMQKko44w ... erM_WBYb-B

My take-ways:

1. The initial US intel report on damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities is “preliminary” and “low confidence”.

2. Iran could withdraw from IAEA supervision.

3. Iran could withdraw from the NPT. But the already agreed-to international sanctions “snap-back”. Current sanctions are basically imposed by the US only.

4. If the damage does not set Iran back sufficiently or if Iran continues nuclearization, I think the war will resume.

IMO, Iran should go for a big bargain - lifting of all sanctions + guarantees of no regime change operation in return for keeping to only a nuclear energy program.

I think that the Iranian regime is ideologically incapable of the big bargain. Plus, with no more foreign pressure, the regime will lose control of the populace sooner or later. Being under siege is an necessary condition for the regime.

——
I am curious though it is quite unrealistic, that if Iran makes a big bargain, how Iran vs Turkey vs Gulf states bloc will play out. Also, given its young, educated population in what areas might Iran compete economically with India?

[bala]

This YT by DJT explains the operation hammer on Iran. It is the NATO press conference in Netherlands in Hague. There is some Q&A by the press. He called CNN as a fake news. Some discussion on oil from Iran - DJT wants to allow oil selling even to China. He says China can buy oil from US. (I think the Russian tariffs by congress on oil will not fly with DJT). DJT wants to talk with Iran to get peace but he is not hungup on getting a deal done with them, but no nuclear weapons for Iran is the bottomline. DJT thinks Iran is crippled and cannot do anything otherwise.

Worth watching to get the straight up from DJT instead of third party interpretation and bias, certainly not from CNN, NYT, MSNBC, Reuters, BBC, ABC, etc which write fake stuff and rubbish.

President Trump holds a press conference as NATO summit ends

[williams]

Iran overstretched itself by supporting multiple proxies and not developing enough deterrence capability against her enemies. There should be significant damage to both its scientific community as well as enrichment hardware. The whole notion of 60% enrichment only seems like an excuse for Israel to strike. If they had the facility and capability to enrich Uranium by 60% why would they stop there and how would Israel know exactly the timing they reached 60%. They either have the maal or they don't. Once you have mastered the capability to build a centrifuge it is just matter of money and time to get the 90% maal. Given the scope of this Fordo facility they should have got the 90% mall long before if they had running centrifuges. So there is no 60% maal anywhere it is just fake news. Iran is going the Libya way. Soon Ayatollahs will be killed and a less threatening regime will be established. Only other possibility is someone like China/NK giving them the maal and asking them to test their mall in a Iranian facility. Exactly how they did it for the Pakis. Pakis earned enough good will from Khan land to kind of close their eyes when the Chinese helped them. Question is what does Iran have to motivate China or Nk to do this for them? Oil alone is not enough. Only option for the Ayatollahs is the Mullah Munir way. Abject and complete surrender with oil resources presented in the plate to DJT. If that happens then DJT will leave them to manage the local Abduls while Khan's multinationals build ways to exploit the local oil.

[Amber G.]

Thanking people of India who 'stood firmly & vocally' with Iran.

Statement

[Amber G.]

P.S. Those who 'criticized' Trumps action on Iran (when Iran did not attack US directly) without taking others in the loop..I strongly advise reading the entire rant until the end. It keeps getting better.

[vera_k]

The whole notion of 60% enrichment only seems like an excuse for Israel to strike.

Building protected facilities underground is far more expensive than putting up a warehouse on the surface. If Iran had no intention of pursuing a weapons program, these underground fortified facilities would not exist. A nuclear power program cannot justify paying the additional cost to move things underground as it will raise electricity bills for every customer.