Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[drnayar]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ve ... 025-12-12/

Russia attacks two Ukrainian ports, damaging three Turkish-owned vessels

https://x.com/shanaka86/status/1999980564343034231

he Black Sea Just Became a War Zone for Everyone

Hours after shaking Putin’s hand, Erdogan watched four of his nation’s ships burn.

Let that sink in.

December 12-13, 2025. Russia deliberately struck four Turkish civilian vessels in 48 hours. Three in Ukrainian ports. One in open international waters carrying sunflower oil to Egypt.

The CENK T. Engulfed in flames. Carrying food supplies. Hit while docked.

This is not collateral damage. This is calculated escalation.

Russian state media’s own words: “Sinking 10-15 ships in one port could paralyze operations.”

They are telling you the playbook.

What Changed:

For the first time since 1945, two state actors are simultaneously attacking commercial shipping in the same waters. Ukraine hits Russian tankers. Russia retaliates against neutral vessels.

The Black Sea grain corridor, feeding 400 million people across Africa and the Middle East, now operates under active fire.

The Math:

Turkish maritime insurance rates will spike 20-40% within weeks. Wheat futures already climbing. Every commercial vessel entering these waters now calculates whether cargo is worth the gamble.

The Silence:

NATO Article 5 covers armed attacks on members. Turkey is NATO. These were Turkish ships. Turkish crews. Turkish cargo.

Ankara’s response? A statement “reiterating the need for arrangements.”

What Comes Next:

Watch Turkish naval deployments. Watch Lloyd’s of London. Watch grain prices.

The moment a major insurer declares the Black Sea uninsurable, the food crisis metastasizes from regional to global.

Putin bet that commerce would bend before alliances would hold.