Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 14 Jan 2013 22:00
Give me two days. Data is huge though in excel file.ramana wrote:
chaankya, Can you convert that data into bar and pie charts and develop a strategy based on data
.
Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/
Give me two days. Data is huge though in excel file.ramana wrote:
chaankya, Can you convert that data into bar and pie charts and develop a strategy based on data
.
Above all, Daniel Pearl was doing the exact opposite of what the SD wanted him to do. that was the time for eg. Chirstian Amoupour edited references of Musharaf to treaty with Jews to kill them later in explaining his position.RajeshA wrote:Actually I think there are still many Western journalists willing to do this. It is also an almost risk-free undertaking which involves the feudals inviting and hosting those journalists. But if it is deemed risky, it can always be outsourced to some Paki in UK or elsewhere.chaanakya wrote:quote="RajeshA"]
Unless of course one at the same time makes documentaries on the lavish palaces of the feudals in Pakistan. The feudals in Pakistan would love to contribute, I am sure!/quote]
After Daniel Pearl beheading which Journo in West has the courage to do that??
Daniel Pearl was playing with fire and poking his nose where the Pakis were not really happy about.
“We have traded dollar at Rs100 while the rate fluctuated at different places with slight difference of price,” said Anwar Jamal, a currency dealer.
However, banks showed strength against panic and the dollar was selling around Rs97.65 in the interbank market.
The currency dealers said the banks received strict advice from the State Bank not to go beyond Rs97.65. “But the trading inched up to Rs97.69 at the closing,” said a senior banker and currency dealers.![]()
“The State Bank did not inject dollars to release pressure on demand but it used some large banks to stay there for controlling the unusual dollar demand,” said Atif Ahmed, a currency dealer in the interbank market.
He believed the dollar would gain more in the inter-bank market on Thursdayas the persistent demand would push the dollar prices further up. The bankers said despite no big payments in coming days, the dollar was getting weight against the rupee, which signifies that some other factors are also acting upon the exchange rate.....
The rupee has fallen by the 58 per cent against the US dollar in the last five years.![]()
The government is considering banning bulbs and gas geysers to free up capacity in national electricity grid![]()
ramana wrote:Folks clever banter can be confined to other threads.
Thanks,
ramana
chaankya, Can you convert that data into bar and pie charts and develop a strategy based on data?
Juhjar, Please support him off line.
The World Bank has noted that Pakistan’s economic growth would remain lowest in the region as it is expected to remain at 3.8 per cent in fiscal year 2012-2013 that would be lower than that of India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and even Nepal.![]()
2 questionskrishnan wrote:3.8 ??? how so high??
Did they take into consideration even terror exports ??
Because that is where it belongs, and where it will belong for ever, that is even after land has been freed of its weeds.Aditya_V wrote:2) Why is Pakistan in India, SL, BD, Nepal region. Logically why not club it with Iran, Afganistan and GCC?
Head of the International Monitory Fund (IMF) mission in Pakistan, Jeffrey Frank said that the IMF cannot write off or restructre (pinglish) Pakistan’s loan.
While speaking to the media, Frank further said that Pakistan has not formally sought a new program, adding that if they did want to seek a new program then their economic strategy must radically change as losses of government institutions had drowned the current economic strategy.
Pakisneeraj wrote:Pak loans cannot be written off: IMF
Head of the International Monitory Fund (IMF) mission in Pakistan, Jeffrey Frank said that the IMF cannot write off or restructre (pinglish) Pakistan’s loan.
While speaking to the media, Frank further said that Pakistan has not formally sought a new program, adding that if they did want to seek a new program then their economic strategy must radically change as losses of government institutions had drowned the current economic strategy.
chaanakya wrote:http://www.niticentral.com/2013/01/we-m ... gular.html
Some ideas how to handle Pakis
This is a nice piece, and actually something that we have looked into in some detail.The jugular, however, is Pakistan’s dependence on India for water for agricultural purposes.
Water from tributaries of the Indus river is the Pakistan economy’s lifeline. Farmers of the area have used Indus waters since prehistoric times. Irrigation from the Indus tributaries makes possible the cultivation of the arid land along their courses. Besides irrigation, the Indus basin generates almost half of the electricity produced in Pakistan.
Admittedly, the flow of river waters into Pakistanis governed by the Indo-Pak Indus Water Treaty of 1960, under which all the waters of Indus River’s eastern tributaries, Sutlej, Beas and Ravi taken together, shall be available for the unrestricted use of India. And all the waters of Chenab and Jhelum tributaries and of any tributary which in its natural course joins the Sutlej main or the Ravi main after these tributaries have crossed into Pakistan, shall be available for the unrestricted use of Pakistan.
But — and this is the critical issue — the flow of river water into Pakistan lies in India’s hands! It is in the India-controlled part of Kashmir where lie the origins and passage of the five river tributaries because the Boundary Award of 1947 meant that the headworks of the chief irrigation systems of Pakistan were left located in Indian territory. Pakistan has been apprehensive that in a dire need India would use its strategic advantage and withhold the flow to choke Pakistan’s agriculture. In fact, an issue of Pakistan’s defence weekly five years ago cited a particular Water Resources Minister of India as saying that if India decides to scrap the treaty, Pakistan will face a drought and Pakistanis will beg for every drop of water.
India must now act on that fear of Pakistan. It is believed that a unilateral termination of the Indus Water Treaty is not legally permissible and that such an action might well be considered a legitimate justification for war. But we can use filibuster tactics to delay the whole issue and prolong the hearings till Pakistan experiences the pains of parching fields and throats.
In any case, there are enough Chanakyas in our land who can stop the Jhelum and Chenab waters from flowing downward west to Pakistan without terminating the water sharing treaty. It is these Chanakyas whose talents must be tapped when going for Pakistan’s jugular. Merely twiddling our fingers and raging in silence will not do.
The Pakistan International Airlines terminated an agreement signed with a foreign company for the procurement of spare parts to keep its aircraft operational, Geo News reported Thursday.
Source said the decision to cancel the contract was taken at a meeting of board of directors since the company had failed in providing required spare parts on time, which forced the national airline to ground its 16 aircraft out of 38 in its fleet.
The sources said that the PIA now had only 22 airplanes functional in its fleet, an alarming number which might inflict more financial losses to the already crisis-stricken PIA.
Sources said that prior to the said agreement, 400 companies were providing the PIA with equipments. In an unprecedented move, the authorities in PIA tasked only a single company from Dubai with providing the parts, canceling all the contacts with other hundreds of firms.
The sources revealed that the PIA became the first commercial airline in the globe to enter an agreement with the company, which had no earlier experience in the field.
The PIA contacted with the 400 companies but they seemed reluctant to work with the airline, they added.![]()
Harried motorists said that they remained deprived of celebrating the Eid Milad-un-Nabi, as they spent the whole day standing in the queue at CNG stations.![]()
The agricultural sector has suffered Rs219 billion losses in year 2012 for failing to achieve production targets of major crops leading the country to food insecurity, pushing rural poverty, price hike and unemployment up.....
Mr Mughal said the wheat during 2012 fell short of around 1.5 million tons of its target of 25 million tons, rice production remained at 6.1 million tons against 6.5 million tons target and cotton target of 15 million bales, which incidentally is stagnant for 21 years, fell short by 1.4 million bales. “Pakistan’s largest export sector will have to import 1.4 million bales either from India (courtsey MMS) or China to meet its requirement,” he said.
Coming to minor crops, he said the gram was considered to be only source of cheap proteins for the poor. Though the current provincial minister belongs to the area of gram production, still the gram production fell like never before.
He said the per acre yield of gram in 1948 was six maunds per acre, when there were no research facilities, but in year 2012 it remained 2.2 maunds per acre (this is the result of 60 years of Madrassa research). Four districts of Punjab — Layyah, Bhakkar, Mianwali and Khushab — had suffered Rs22 billion losses during 2012 due to decline in the gram production.
He concluded by saying that in Pakistan one person was getting only five eggs on an average per month while this ratio in India was 21 eggs and in Europe 63 eggs per month. (1 paki egg = 4 Indian ones)
According to the figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the inflows of remittances in July-January from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, United States, the UK, GCC countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, and the European Union (EU) nations amounted to $2,292.02 million, $1,669.36 million, $1,324.00 million, $1,155.35 million, $941.83 million and $217.89 million, respectively, as compared to $2,008.47 million, $1,644.34 million, $1,328.31 million, $853.47 million, $845.41 million and $215.64 million, respectively, in July-January 2012.
The remittance is actually drug money laundered by Poaqrats. The Poakhaomy remains Dukhonomy in their Rat Mush .kish wrote:pakhonomicsis truly intriguing. According to the figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the inflows of remittances in July-January from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, United States, the UK, GCC countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, and the European Union (EU) nations amounted to $2,292.02 million, $1,669.36 million, $1,324.00 million, $1,155.35 million, $941.83 million and $217.89 million, respectively, as compared to $2,008.47 million, $1,644.34 million, $1,328.31 million, $853.47 million, $845.41 million and $215.64 million, respectively, in July-January 2012.
Pakistan’s budget deficit has now soared to such astronomical levels — over one trillion rupees at last count — that the government has had to resort to creative means to finance its operations. In the current fiscal year, the government raised Rs182 billion by issuing a Sukuk, or Islamic bond, which offered returns against the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi. This is because the government’s economic performance over the last five years has been dismal. To deal with the budget crisis, it has printed money at an alarming rate, causing runaway inflation. Private lending by banks has also ground to a virtual halt as almost all loans are now given to prop up our empty exchequer. This is unsustainable but the government has shown no inclination to cut down its expenditures.
One other reason — and perhaps, one with more far-reaching implications — is the gradual reduction in annual budgetary support by financial institutions like the Asian Development Bank (ADB), following in the footsteps of institutions like the World Bank, which has stopped budgetary disbursements pending a Letter of Assessment about the health of Pakistan’s economy by the IMF. The IMF is not likely to issue this letter.
The ADB has also stopped project disbursements until Pakistan completes the project initiation process.
kish wrote:pakhonomicsis truly intriguing. Their total forex reserves is $13.474 billion. Yearly remittance from overseas terrorists is $8.206 billion. Plus they get Coalition support fund and AIDsfrom foreign donors. So, literally they export nothing apart from terrorism. Some how they cook up a incredible exports growth to make it look like its better than India's. Pakis are funny.
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$13.474 billion == $8.206 billion + CSF + AIDs + Loans.
Forex reserves
[url=httpXXX://dawn.com/2013/02/07/pakistans-forex-reserves-fall-to-13-474-billion/]Pakistan’s forex reserves fall to $13.474 billion[/url]
Overseas terrorists remittance
[url=httpxxx://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-159427 ... ven-months]Remittances jump up to $8.2 billion in seven months[/url]
According to the figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the inflows of remittances in July-January from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, United States, the UK, GCC countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, and the European Union (EU) nations amounted to $2,292.02 million, $1,669.36 million, $1,324.00 million, $1,155.35 million, $941.83 million and $217.89 million, respectively, as compared to $2,008.47 million, $1,644.34 million, $1,328.31 million, $853.47 million, $845.41 million and $215.64 million, respectively, in July-January 2012.
SLAMABAD: A Budget Strategy Paper finalised for the federal budget for fiscal year 2013-14 projects total outlay of the budget at Rs 3.514 trillion, with fiscal deficit for the next fiscal year estimated at Rs1.620 trillion.The total federal revenues are projected at Rs 2.833 trillion and total expenditures Rs 3.514 trillion for the upcoming fiscal year, according to the paper presented before the cabinet.The Real Gross Domestic Product (Real-GDP) growth target has been set at 4.5% for 2013-14 against the actual GDP growth target of 4.3% and downwards revised target of 4% for the ongoing fiscal year 2012-13.The consolidated fiscal deficit of the federal and provincial governments is estimated at Rs 1.550 trillion for 2013-14, as all four provinces are to create a budget surplus to the tune of 70 billion as saving from total federal transfers.Net foreign exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan are projected to come down to $5.2 billion in 2013-14, as compared with $8.1 billion of the ongoing fiscal year. Some $4.5 billion are separately available with the commercial banks in foreign currency accounts and that are included in gross foreign exchange reserves of the country. If these are also included in gross foreign exchange reserves, the country’s gross reserves would come down from $12.6 billion to $9.7 billion in the next fiscal year.The tax collection target for the next year has been proposed at Rs 2.675 trillion against the Rs 2.381 trillion actual and Rs 2.193 trillion downwards revised tax collection target for the ongoing fiscal year, projecting Rs 842 billion additional revenues in the next fiscal year.The non-tax revenues are projected at Rs 689 billion in the upcoming fiscal year 2013-14 against the non-tax revenues actual target of Rs.6.99 billion and revised target of Rs.639 billion for ongoing fiscal year 2012-13. Transfers to the provinces under the 7th National Finance Commission Award has been projected at Rs 1.628 trillion in the next fiscal year as against the Rs 1.459 trillion actual transfers target and Rs 1.340 trillion downwards revised target of transfers during the ongoing fiscal year.The federal government has projected that interest payments on already obtained loans will cross trillion mark and are estimated at Rs 1.149 trillion for the next fiscal year as compared with Rs 926 billion actual and Rs 1.082 trillion upwards revised target for the ongoing fiscal.The security expenditures for the next fiscal year 2013-14 has been proposed at Rs 627 billion as compared with Rs 554 billion actual and Rs 570 billion upward revised for the ongoing fiscal year.The macro-economic framework presented before the federal cabinet aims at containing CPI based inflation at 9%, increasing national savings to 13% against 12% of the last fiscal year and bringing public debt from 60.4% of the GDP to 57.5%.
Pakistan needs strict financial oversight in managing its balance of payments, which has reached at an alarming level. The nuclear-powered South Asian country has barely enough foreign currency to meet only two months’ import bills — a situation that calls for immediate attention.
According to reports, the country might need a $9 billion cash injection by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Pakistan’s economy faces multiple short- and long-term challenges. Deep-seated structural problems and weak macroeconomic policies have continued to sap the economy’s vigour, IMF said in its assessment of Pakistan economy recently.
Because Bangladeshis or Nepalis or Lankans do not provide as much comic relief in our lives as the pakis do.sanjaykumar wrote:Why are we wasting time with Pakistanis?
A lot of GCC Bachsheesh is also classified as Hard earned NRP money but it nothing but the Royals in Saudi etc funding Pakis.Jhujar wrote:The remittance is actually drug money laundered by Poaqrats. The Poakhaomy remains Dukhonomy in their Rat Mush .kish wrote:pakhonomicsis truly intriguing. According to the figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the inflows of remittances in July-January from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, United States, the UK, GCC countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, and the European Union (EU) nations amounted to $2,292.02 million, $1,669.36 million, $1,324.00 million, $1,155.35 million, $941.83 million and $217.89 million, respectively, as compared to $2,008.47 million, $1,644.34 million, $1,328.31 million, $853.47 million, $845.41 million and $215.64 million, respectively, in July-January 2012.
( Lest see if USA vote for this cash assistence after Peece Pipe Line Defiance )ISLAMABAD - Pakistan and International Monetary Fund (IMF) would hold talks next
month (April) in Washington wherein Islamabad might seek fresh bailout package to avert a crisis of balance of payments, it has been learnt.“Pakistan and IMF will hold sideline meeting at the annual spring meeting of World Bank/IMF in Washington next month. The caretaker government will decide to seek fresh bailout package from the Fund as we cannot say it now”, said Rana Assad Amin, spokesperson and advisor to the Finance ministry while talking to The Nation on Thursday. The policy-steering bodies of the IMF and the World Bank (Development Committee) will hold their semi-annual meetings on April 20.However, sources in finance ministry and economic experts believed that caretaker government is likely to seek fresh programme worth of $5 to $6 billion to avert a crisis on balance of payments, as foreign currency reserves are sharply depleting due to heavy repayment to the IMF. Pakistan’s overall liquid foreign exchange reserves fell to $12.805 billion on February 28 2013 wherein reserves held by the State Bank stood at $7.861 billion and reserves held by commercial banks stood at $4.944 billion. The foreign exchange reserves might decline to $7.5billion to $8.5billion at the end of the current fiscal year, 2012-2013 due to a heavy repayment to the IMF.Sources said that IMF is expected to include conditionality such as greater revenue generation by the abolishment of income tax, sales tax, federal excise duty and customs duty exemptions besides the containment of losses incurred by public sector enterprises and the power sector for the new loan agreement. During the last talks, the IMF team is said to have insisted on the reduction of the budget deficit by 1.5 percent of GDP over the medium term through policy measures that generate revenue and cut expenditures.Pakistan has paid over $3.2 billion to the IMF putting pressure on the already depleting foreign exchange reserves. The country’s external account is under extreme pressure since the inflows were negligible during the year 2012, while outflows eroded the reserves. TheSources said in the next financial year, Islamabad would have to repay $3.4billion to the IMF. Hence, Pakistan would have no option, but to seek a fresh bailout package from the IMF to remove the possibility of a default.
While the consumers saw a 100 to 200 per cent hike in food items prices during the last five years, they witnessed a massive hike in utility bills charges, and in the prices of other essential goods as well as school fee and books....
There seem to be two conflicting views about the state of Pakistan’s economy.
The first shared by most independent economists and analysts is that the worsening fiscal and balance of payments deficits warrant urgent corrective action otherwise the country will head inescapably into an economic crisis.
The facts are clear about the present precarious situation. Last week reserves held by the State Bank fell to $ 7.8 billion. This offers no assurance that the country can avoid a balance of payments crisis when capital inflows have dried up, foreign direct investment has plunged to the lowest ever level and debt payments loom.
In the next fiscal year $6.2 billion in debt service payments will be due to the IMF and other creditors by which time reserves would have dipped below $6 billion and with the trade gap also needing to be financed.
To compound an explosive budgetary situation, the government has also gone on a no-holds-barred spending spree in its last days in power. This is reflected in a number of fiscally irresponsible decisions taken in recent weeks, mostly by the cabinet’s Economic Coordination Committee, which met four times in just over a fortnight — unprecedented in Pakistan’s economic history.
This fiscal profligacy comes at a time when government revenues have plummeted.
If the resultant larger fiscal deficit continues to be financed by more borrowing the consequences are inescapable — higher inflation and addition to an unsustainable domestic debt. This is already part of the explosive economic legacy being bequeathed to the next government by the PPP-led coalition — contrary to the government’s ‘all is well’ claims. With the fiscal problem feeding into the increasingly shaky external account, the question is not if but when the country will face a foreign exchange crisis — unless urgent action is taken to avert this.
Dr Maleeha Lodhi served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the US and United Kingdom
rising trend of rich nations with aging workers tapping poorer ones for labor -- total remittances to developing economies will rise 7.9 percent this year, and reach $534 billion by 2015, the World Bank says. For Pakistan, the income offers a source of stability, with the country poised for its first civilian handover of government in May even amid power shortages, bombings and a Taliban insurgency. “This is our savior for keeping Pakistan out of the oxygen tent,” Farooq Sattar, former Minister for Overseas Pakistanis said in an interview in Karachi last month before his party quit the government alliance. “It has kept us from a complete economic collapse.” Almost 10 million Pakistanis work overseas and the sum they’ve sent home has doubled in the four years through June, to a record $13 billion. T
This is anther mordern myth, most of the funding from Saudis and GCC a.k.a baksheesh is hidden as NRP repatriation. so that their masters need not have plausible deniabilityJhujar wrote:Pakistan’s Army of Overseas Workers Keeps Economy Afloat
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-2 ... lapse.html
rising trend of rich nations with aging workers tapping poorer ones for labor -- total remittances to developing economies will rise 7.9 percent this year, and reach $534 billion by 2015, the World Bank says. For Pakistan, the income offers a source of stability, with the country poised for its first civilian handover of government in May even amid power shortages, bombings and a Taliban insurgency. “This is our savior for keeping Pakistan out of the oxygen tent,” Farooq Sattar, former Minister for Overseas Pakistanis said in an interview in Karachi last month before his party quit the government alliance. “It has kept us from a complete economic collapse.” Almost 10 million Pakistanis work overseas and the sum they’ve sent home has doubled in the four years through June, to a record $13 billion. T