Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[drnayar]

Is there any truth to these Youtube reports of:
1. China's Covid death runs into few hundred million
2. Actual population is around 800 million
3. Streets and Malls are empty in most cities
4. Factories are shutting down
And if these are true can they field a big army in case of conflict??
Just like their Mizzilies their Army numbers are also Dud and they fold up if Unkil gives a good rap!!

There are reports of Covid in kerala state as well ..

[Vayutuvan]

Don't know how true this news, but this is stunning news - Xi jinping is under house arrest.

Sumit Peer and Sree Iyer are reporting: Apparently Belarus chief had to meet Xi at his house. Xi has been missing for 15 days now.
...

How is Xi gonna meet DJT then? Probably a Chinese agent in MI like mask. Some SS guy will be in Trump mask.

[bala]

How is Xi gonna meet DJT then?

Watch this for more inner detail on what is going with Emperor and CMC. Hu Jin Tao the previous guy before Emperor is playing some chess moves. The most trusted person of Emperor has thrown the emperor under the bus and wants him removed. There are 7 key people in top leadership of CCP. 3 were removed by Emperor. One of his trusted guys is in the 4 left and this person (a vice chairman) has no trust for Emperor's leadership. Emperor has decimated the top PLA honchos one by one. PLA is mighty pissed with the Emperor and they are baying for his blood. DJT is going to meet a weak Emperor and DJT is hoping that Emperor caves in to US/his demands.

watch this: youtube.com/watch?v=LjDWMXpT5_U

[SSridhar]

Xi's disappearance happens regularly. I do not read anything into it at all, even if it were true.

[Baikul]

I have been following India - China relations over the past decade but never in any depth to master the nuances.

From my surface level perspective it seems to me that never - in recent memory at least- has Beijing come out so openly, blatantly and aggressively in support of Pakistan as in the last skirmish with our western neighbours.

Is it fair to say that Beijing, who was perhaps earlier thought of as a serious rival and threat, should now be viewed as an openly hostile neighbour, if not an outright enemy?

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam crisis can we say that the Chinese, who were always pro Pakistani, have now made a clear, decisive and strategic ‘upstep’ that means that China will be more aggressive, open and blunt in supporting any Pakistani misadventure?

I’m hoping for a more nuanced discussion than “we were always enemies, saar”.

[drnayar]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... arrier-ops

[drnayar]

"The international hit, Ne Zha, tells the story of a young boy destined to destroy the world. He must fight to choose between good and evil in order to break the shackles of fate and become the hero he desperately wants to be."

We hardly discuss chinese cultural stuff here.. but have to say there are incredible connections to Hindu lore.

Who is hindu mythology would be Nezha

[ramana]

Dr Sriparna Pathak wrote on Trump visa bans

Brain drain or Global Gain?

https://archive.is/2025.06.20-095806/ht ... 00283.html

[ramana]

Xi's disappearance happens regularly. I do not read anything into it at all, even if it were true.

However the news of the churn is interesting.

All is not well in Beijing.

We are seeing glimpses of inner tussle.
It behoves us to analyze. We maybe wrong but the process helps sharpen the mind.

[ramana]

I have been following India - China relations over the past decade but never in any depth to master the nuances.

From my surface level perspective it seems to me that never - in recent memory at least- has Beijing come out so openly, blatantly and aggressively in support of Pakistan as in the last skirmish with our western neighbours.

Is it fair to say that Beijing, who was perhaps earlier thought of as a serious rival and threat, should now be viewed as an openly hostile neighbour, if not an outright enemy?

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam crisis can we say that the Chinese, who were always pro Pakistani, have now made a clear, decisive and strategic ‘upstep’ that means that China will be more aggressive, open and blunt in supporting any Pakistani misadventure?

I’m hoping for a more nuanced discussion than “we were always enemies, saar”.

This support is a fallout of the inner tussle going on in Beijing after the withdrawal from occupied patrol points along LAC.
The faction that supports the Pakistan card became prominent.
However the abject performance of Chinese weapons in Operation Sindoor have struck a blow to this group. The defeat is not just that of Pakistan but of Chinese PLA and the so-called hardliners too.
As usual it takes a while to figure out the effect as China withdraws into a shell in such times.

[SSridhar]

Is it fair to say that Beijing, who was perhaps earlier thought of as a serious rival and threat, should now be viewed as an openly hostile neighbour, if not an outright enemy?

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam crisis can we say that the Chinese, who were always pro Pakistani, have now made a clear, decisive and strategic ‘upstep’ that means that China will be more aggressive, open and blunt in supporting any Pakistani misadventure?

Baikul, IMHO, the biggest reason is that China is still unsure if it is even the sole 'regional hegemon'.

This feeling of insecurity feeds into all its actions. Of course, "we have always been enemies" is a correct statement. After all, how else can we describe a country which gave nukes & missiles to our enemy with the sole purpose of bottling us up?

But, XJP may now be pressed for time because his fourth term may not be a guarantee for him anymore as the social contract which he entered with his people of making China a 'wealthy nation' is running into a very hard time. You never know what will happen by the time the 21st National Congress of the CPC meets in late 2027.

Now, XJP may be planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2026-2027 timeframe. He is unsure if India would remain neutral or join with other QUAD partners in military operations. Neither in Doka La nor in Ladakh PLA performed well.

He probably never expected India to dramatically escalate in the 4-day war. China has traditionally thought of Indian leaders as 'having no stomach' when it comes to the crunch, even though Uri, Doka La, Balakot, and Ladakh had shown increasing Indian belligerence and determination.

China probes through TSP and wanted to see how new Indian military structures/reorgs are working. When things really went out of control, China got alarmed. All its h/w failed miserably and the only thing that worked was the satellite imagery it provided to TSP. TSP will now demand more strategic platforms from China and it will have to oblige too. China used to instigate TSP to keep us blocked economically, but now it may be planning to bypass us militarily in its goal for 'regional hegemony' by gas-lighting one more war (after Ukr, West Asia etc) between us & TSP at an appropriate time.

After this abject defeat, Pakistan now has an upper hand in the TSP-China equation because as usual TSP has the trigger at its own temple.

[bala]

Li Keqiang, China’s former Premier who said that China’s official economic numbers were “for reference only”. This is the man who managed China’s economy but didn’t trust the GDP stats of his own government that was officially published. He died under mysterious circumstances in 2023. Li Keqiang used his own Index which used electricity consumption, rail freight volume, and actual loan data instead of the official Chinese GDP number.

Ken Cao exposes this episode in China.

Premier Li Exposed China’s Fake GDP — Now He’s Dead

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq2t8GU6YlQ

[krithivas]

China has completely stopped exporting specialty fertilisers to India. This has been happening for the past two months, even though there is no official announcement or formal ban from Chinese authorities .... Between June and December every year, India imports around 150,000 to 160,000 tonnes of these speciality fertilisers. These are essential for growing better crops during this time, especially in key farming states.

Although China is still exporting to other countries, shipments to India have been stopped. This is being done using unofficial methods. Reports say Chinese customs authorities are not clearing Indian shipments. Instead of banning them openly, they are using inspections and procedural delays to block the exports.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... 53aa&ei=12

[bala]

A complete slap to the face of Emperor and China on the succession plan of the next Dalai Lama of Tibet.

On July 02, Dalai Lama announced that Gaden Phodrang trust has sole authority to recognise future reincarnation. This ended the years of waiting by followers of Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader for details about his succession. While speaking at 15th Tibetan Religious Conference, Dalai Lama said “no one else has any such authority to interfere” regarding future reincarnation.The 3rd day conference comes ahead of the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday on July 6. He had said on June 30 that there will be a “framework” to discuss his succession ahead of his birthday. Dalai Lama’s statement on July 02, expected to irk China, which views him as a separatist. The Dalai Lama, fled Tibet in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule.

Gaden Phodrang Trust has sole authority to recognise future reincarnation: Dalai Lama

[Baikul]

Is it fair to say that Beijing, who was perhaps earlier thought of as a serious rival and threat, should now be viewed as an openly hostile neighbour, if not an outright enemy?

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam crisis can we say that the Chinese, who were always pro Pakistani, have now made a clear, decisive and strategic ‘upstep’ that means that China will be more aggressive, open and blunt in supporting any Pakistani misadventure?

Baikul, IMHO, the biggest reason is that China is still unsure if it is even the sole 'regional hegemon'.

This feeling of insecurity feeds into all it’s actions….

Below is a statement made by the deputy COAS that makes me think we are at war with China right now.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/5nmPXdvwaqI?si=YmS4SYCEpoF7Su8y[/youtube]

Summary: The general says that we had one border and three adversaries in Operation Sindoor. Pakistan, China and Turkey.

China, regards an India Pakistan fight as a ‘live lab” for its weapons.

But for me the main point was that Pakistan was getting live inputs from China on Indian activities in a time of war..

If that isn’t straightforward enemy action then I don’t know what is.

[bala]

India's Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister, Pema Khandu, states that the state shares 1,200km border with Tibet, not directly with China. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of southern Tibet, referring to it as "Zangnan". India rejects China's claims and maintains that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral and inalienable part of India. The US also recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 349025.cms

// Looks like a slow salvo of Tibet is being drummed into China, first with Dalai Lama asserting that the next Lama will be chosen by an appointed Trust and not China. Then Modi attending Dalai Lama birthday. Now India's Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister, Pema Khandu claiming border with Tibet and not China.

[bala]

The C919 is essentially Airbus A320 aircraft, another copy/paste operation conducted by China, when Airbus sold A320 in 2000 to them. The Airbus A320 was dismantled and each part copied/replicated by the Chinese. The French have been investigating C919, Alain Juillet, french directorate-general for External Security, Patrick Devault economic intelligence at Airbus and Isabelle Feng, a french researcher have damning evidence of copying. An A320 sold to China disappeared for awhile and reappeared in a village area to make it a restaurant! All parameters of A320 are identical in C919. Engine, avionics, flight control, hydraulics, landing gear and other critical parts are supplied by US and Europe for C919. A certification roadmap was stolen by the Chinese to get their aircraft certified. Now it is upto the suppliers in US/Europe to stop the C919 aircraft proceeding further.

watch for more details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=795yJ9ik4Ug

[bala]

This is a huge turn of events after Operation Sindoor disaster for China. EAM Jaisankar meets with Emperor Eleven in China.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 482260.cms

[bala]

Finally the Chinese are writing about the impact of transfer of manufacturing to India from China. This is their perspective and effects are going to devastate the Chinese economy.

Chinese think tanks report on the effects of strong Indian manufacturing sector on Chinese economy & employment.

https://x.com/chatt16887/status/1945092209813991859

15.6% reduction in GDP and 16.8% decrease in workforce. They are worried about both low end and high end manufacturing sectors. India already has >50% of global competency centers of the world. Many of them are involved in fine-tuning global MNCs products and the next generation products. AI/Automation/robotics are going to be par for the course in advanced manufacturing. Semiconductor manufacturing is being worked upon in India, global MNCs in semiconductor have worldwide Indian origin people at the helm of semiconductor manufacture. Global industrial chain suppy is ready to put its roots in India and rearing to go full steam.

[ramana]

I found a reference to a book published by Institute of China studies in 2018.

https://icsin.org/publications/mountain ... ndian-army

he book predicts about the most likely next theaters of war for India which are its northern and north-western mountain frontiers. These disputed borders with china, and the perpetually tense 'NO WAR ON PEACE' and simmering low intensity perpetual war situation with Pakistan along the line of control (LOC) and the so-called Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL), are physically held on to by India at great cost in men and material. A constant heavy military deployment on these mountain borders has become the norm for India.

It came true two years later at Galwan and another two years later at Yangtse.

[bala]

Tis hard to find any YT on China collapse but here is one that talks about the possibility of China breaking apart into multiple independent states — just like the Soviet Union did in 1991. From East Turkestan to Tibet, and Shanghai to Manchuria, 10 regions that could declare independence or become self-governing in a post-China world. Based on geography, history, and internal divisions, here’s what China’s new map might look like.

If China collapses, these 10 States will emerge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJKLQc0NvWM

// this would be good for the world. Tibet free from the clutches of China is a good thing for India.

[SSridhar]

. . .From East Turkestan to Tibet, and Shanghai to Manchuria, 10 regions that could declare independence or become self-governing in a post-China world.

Remember what we produced: The new map of borders and areas around China on the eve of PM Li Qiang's visit to India for G-20.

[ricky_v]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/ch ... ngNewsVerp

China has officially begun construction on a USD 167.8 billion dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, near the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced the launch during a groundbreaking ceremony held at the lower reaches of the river, known locally as the Yarlung Zangbo in Nyingchi City, according to official reports.

According to official Chinese media, the ambitious project will include five cascade hydropower stations, with a total estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan (approximately USD 167.8 billion).


Once completed, the stations are expected to generate more than 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, reportedly enough to power over 300 million people, making it the largest such effort on the planet, even surpassing China’s Three Gorges Dam.
The dam is set to be built in a massive gorge in the Himalayas, where the Brahmaputra River, known locally as Yarlung Zangbo, makes a dramatic U-turn before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and then onward to Bangladesh.

[bala]

Parking this YT here to provide the scale of investments of China. Their top 10 projects which have spent $ 20 T has not exactly provided a return on investment and are actually a huge debt albatross on the Govt. Hydroelectric projects are many in the top 10 and now China is wanting to tame the brahmaputra river in highly sensitive region which is earthquake prone.

Currently China airports and high speed railway are running close to empty since people don't have the wherewithal for regular usage of such systems. There is a huge project to connect mainland China with Lhasa which is costing 330 B RMB. Many high rise buildings and grand hotels are near empty. Shanghai/Beijing has seen a massive reduction in small business, eateries, shops, mall traffic, tall gleaming buildings empty. Many projects, often costing hundreds of billions or even trillions, end up yielding minimal returns once operational and even become heavy financial burdens for local governments. The latest data shows that in 2024, China’s total fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) reached 51.4 trillion RMB, a 3.2% increase from the previous year. Among this, infrastructure investment grew by 4.4%, excluding fields like electricity, gas, and water.

China’s 10 Biggest Failures: 20 Trillion Spent on Half-Finished Mega-Projects, Nothing Left
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXrNPSIBD4A

[bala]

Shaksgam valley is part of original J&K a region technically under India. However due to invasions by Pak and China some parts have been usurped by them. After the rebels took over northern J&K gilgit baltistan areas, Pak has illegal possesion of J&K (with the UN voting to having Pak to withdraw from the area). In 62 war with China due to Neverwho India lost Aksai Chin (a barren place according to Neverwho). Aksai Chin currently has an important road connecting Tibet with Xingiang, built by the Chinese. Shaksgam valley is where K2 mountain (the 2nd tallest after Everest Mtn) exists and is home to glaciers that hold huge water resources. In fact it is called the 3rd pole in the world after north and south pole. Shaksgam valley originally under occupation by the Paks was given to China illegally in 1963. So effectively Pak illegally occupies Indian land and illegally gives it to China. China is now in possession by such double illegality occupying Shaksgam valley.

There is old map showing the region of Sinkiang/Xinjiang with a border between India on the Raskem Daria river. K2 mountain then called Godwin Austen is south of the river. Shaksgam valley is between Aghill range mountains and Karakoram range mountains. Shaksgam valley is filled with very tall moutains more than 7500 m. The Junction of Karakoram range and Kun lun range is where the Karakoram pass exists. China is trying to build a road in Aghill range. PLA is firmly parked in Shaksgam valley, their presence is small but there.

India holds Siachen glacier and also India has control over Bila Fond La and Sia La glaciers. India can go upto to Indira Col. Lt Gen P R Shankar believes that IA can take out Indira Col and go on to take out Shaksgam from the Chinese by planning a quick IA offensive. Currently the logistics tail for PLA positions in these areas is mighty slim and reinforcement requires acclimatization in frigid cold conditions of high mountain ranges. The Indian Army is used to occupying Siachen glacier and have a good logistics trail. BTW artillery shells don't work and neither do missiles, the snow is very deep and the shells/missiles will bury themselves into the snow pack. India having control of Shaksgam is highly crucial since all the CPEC activity is based on china control of northern J&K territory.

Lt Gen P R Shankar (R) in Gunners Shot explains: (this is 1 yr old YT)

Shaksgam Valley & Chinese Roads

[ricky_v]

https://europeanconservative.com/articl ... ian-ocean/

Chinese fishing trawlers that serve as extensions of Beijing’s maritime intelligence operations. Ostensibly commercial, these ships are integral to China’s “maritime militia.” They are outfitted with sophisticated sensors, satellite communications, and small arms, posing as deep-sea fishermen while gathering sensitive information. Their increasing presence across the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and beyond has caused two interconnected issues: damaging the livelihoods of local fishermen and supplying critical intelligence to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This was particularly apparent during India’s military operation Sindoor, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan in May 2025, when seemingly benign fishing vessels trailed India’s navy, transmitting movements to both China and Pakistan.

According to the London-based think tank Overseas Development Institute (ODI), China’s distant-water trawler fleet is estimated to number around 17,000 vessels worldwide. Their purpose is not merely to pursue squid or tuna. A report by Andrew S. Erickson, Professor of Strategy at the China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, indicates that a significant portion of these vessels are part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), a state-sponsored entity that bolsters the PLAN and Coast Guard under the guise of civilian cover.

These ships are equipped with automatic identification system (AIS) transponders, satellite communication equipment, and high-intensity LED lights for nocturnal fishing, which is frequently done utilizing purse seines and gill nets. Some are armed with non-lethal devices such as water cannons or lasers—tools that are effective for ‘grey-zone’ harassment rather than legitimate fishing.

Some specialized naval-design vessels are constructed for dual purposes: they can be used for mining or surveying and later converted into trawlers. This dual functionality allows for plausible deniability while at sea because they appear to be fishing. However, under command, they engage in surveillance. This hybrid model, known as the maritime militia, obscures the lines between civilian and military functions, facilitating surveillance activities that remain below the threshold of armed conflict and evade direct association with the Chinese military.

Chinese trawlers are frequently observed operating in illegal, unregulated, or unreported (IUU) fishing zones. Yet, their operations extend beyond merely depleting fish populations. In the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, numerous AIS blackouts are present, suspiciously coinciding with regional naval drills. This situation has raised concerns. In 2023 alone, nearly 470 Chinese fishing vessels were documented near India’s western Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), with many disabling their tracking systems for extended periods.

As reported by Reuters, during Operation Sindoor in May 2025, drone surveillance revealed that 224 Chinese fishing vessels were moving in coordinated formations within approximately 120 nautical miles of Indian naval exercises. These fleets are believed to function as passive listening posts, relaying information to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) via Pakistan. According to First Post, the Chinese vessel Da Yang Yi Hao and other naval ships played a crucial role in ‘tactical reconnaissance and electromagnetic mapping’ during the week of the operation.

Two Chinese ships were spotted masquerading as “fisheries research” vessels in the Arabian Sea during India’s AMAN 25 naval exercises near Pakistan. Analysts specializing in open-source intelligence, such as Damien Symon, noted that these vessels had deactivated their AIS trackers and were likely outfitted with remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) and underwater drones—tools frequently employed for discreet seabed mapping and surveillance.

Furthermore, an analysis by Windward’s Maritime AI system revealed a staggering 145% increase from 2023, with 430 “high-risk” fishing vessels entering the Indian Ocean for the first time in early 2025. Predominantly, these vessels are Chinese and exhibit AIS blackout behavior linked to illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, forced labor, and strategic mapping activities.

Utilizing trawlers as instruments of military influence provides China with several strategic advantages. First, there is plausible deniability: civilian vessels attract less scrutiny than naval ships. Second, it offers cost-effective surveillance, as the Chinese government can avoid the high expenses associated with satellites or submarines by deploying inexpensive steel-hull trawlers. Third, these civilian vessels can maintain a persistent presence in foreign waters under legal pretenses, thereby extending China’s influence without the need for formal bases. And last, they can facilitate battlefield mapping, signal triangulation, and electronic surveillance from modified fishing hulls. This approach, particularly evident in the South China Sea, is referred to as the “cabbage strategy”—encircling contested areas with layers of militia, coast guard, and fishing boats to assert dominance without engaging in direct conflict. In the Indian Ocean, this tactic unfolds in a more nuanced manner, yet it is equally impactful.

In Baluchistan, local fishermen claim they face harassment and sabotage from Chinese fleets operating near Gwadar Port, where they are frequently under the protection of the Pakistani Navy. These industrial fleets have inundated Pakistani fish markets with low-cost catches, undermining local fishermen and leading to the near-total collapse of artisanal fisheries along the Makran coast. From Indonesia to South Africa, similar narratives are prevalent: Chinese trawlers arrive, fish aggressively (often without the necessary permits), and leave behind ecological destruction and joblessness.

Countries like India and Indonesia frequently detain these vessels, but release them due to diplomatic pressures. Meanwhile, China takes advantage of its influence within the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to weaken enforcement measures. While nations such as the U.S. and Japan have issued warnings regarding PAFMM activities, European countries have largely chosen to remain silent.

Europe’s silence represents a form of strategic self-sabotage. As a significant trading bloc reliant on the stability of the Indo-Pacific, the EU must take decisive action. First, it should enhance surveillance: collaborate with allies such as India and Australia to merge satellite and AIS data for monitoring suspicious fishing activities. Second, it is crucial to address legal loopholes: push for stricter enforcement of VMS (vessel monitoring systems), ensure AIS transparency, and impose penalties on IUU vessels through the IMO. Third, support coastal economies: leverage the European Maritime Fisheries Fund (EMFF) to offer assistance and protection to areas ravaged by industrial overfishing. Fourth, unveil covert fleets: utilize diplomatic venues like the G7 and the Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum to publicly call out Beijing’s dual-use maritime tactics. Finally, bolster naval cooperation: increase EU naval patrols in critical chokepoints (such as the Gulf of Aden and the Mozambique Channel) to oversee and intercept grey-zone vessels.

China’s maritime strategy has evolved beyond just destroyers and submarines. For Europe, the implication is unmistakable: the next crisis in Indo-Pacific security may not be initiated by missiles, but rather by fishing nets.