US Election Watch Thread 2024

[Mort Walker]

The 7 battleground states polling are all within the margin of error. According to Real Clear Polling average of polls as of 05 OCT 2024:

1. Nevada- Harris: 48.6, Trump: 47.5, No voter ID required
2. Arizona- Harris: 47.5, Trump: 48.9, Photo ID with matching address
3. Wisconsin - Harris: 49, Trump: 48.2, Photo or student ID even if expired 2 years ago
4. Michigan - Harris: 48.3, Trump: 47.6, Photo ID, state can be expired, federal must be current
5. Pennsylvania - Harris: 48.2, Trump: 48.2, Any photo ID or non-photo ID such as utility bill
6. North Carolina - Harris: 48.4, Trump: 49, Photo ID, if over 65 a 1-yr old expired ID is acceptable
7. Georgia - Harris: 47.8, Trump: 49.3, Photo ID, If GA driver's license, then can be expired

Harris 276, Trump 262
or
Trump 281, Harris 257

Should Trump win PA, the governor may not certify the presidential election by 11 DEC 2024. He may be forced to by courts, then Harris as the president of the Senate will not certify by 06 JAN 2025.

[Yagnasri]

You're mistaken. There are a lot of people looking into election integrity in the US, both the voting process itself and the ability of voters to exercise their franchise.

At this point 36 states have ID requirements for voting at the booth. Others require ID for first time voter registrations. Voter registrations themselves require ID details. Mail-in ballot requests are also based on ID details (at least the first time), and the acceptance of the mailed-in ballot at the voting precinct requires signature verification (ballot versus the registration record).

There is no doubt Bharat has made significant strides in the "integrity of the voting process". But "integrity of the election" is much beyond that and there are flaws in both US and Indian elections. In India for example, widespread use of money and intimidation compromises integrity of the election, even if the "best ID checks and EVMs" are deployed. The problem of entrenched illegals voting - equipped with voter IDs and all other requirements - is also very much there.

In the US, the #1 issue is voter suppression, i.e. systematic policies/tactics to prevent/discourage disadvantaged voters from showing up. There is constant (and often successful) litigation on this issue and a lot of scholarly work as well - look it up and understand it is not just idle gossip.

The real issues are inherent your own post. Instead of taking a shallow skim, better to take a deeper dive and realize what is worth arguing about and what isn't. There are very few people who would claim that US elections are flawless.

Some of the posters have trivialized/undermined/denigrated almost every aspect of the "US" threads on BRF - their posts read pretty much like abusive Trump campaign propaganda - leading to the inability to have any kind of reasoned or insightful discussion. The moderators have basically abjured their responsibilities here from what I can see.

All this will come back to bite the forum in the long run.

1. Lot of people looking at election integrity? Really? Who? Can you name really independent people doing it and any space given to them in any MSM entity? Any impartial reports on MSM entities on what? The real thing is anyone and everyone who asks for ID proof is called racist by 99% of the media and so-called intellectuals. Anyone who questions any election result of the Dems is also a racist and election denier. Dems and the entire MSM can say all elections are won by GoP candidates freely and with no problem. No one blinks an eye when they say even non citizens can vote. No one.

2. The less we say about the lawfare, the better. Even the Dems or Ex dems are targeting if they step out of line with the establishment. Take Tulsi's case. She is a Russian Agent, as per almost all the Dems who have power and almost all the MSM. A serving lieutenant colonel of the US Army service is on a terror watch list and is being watched. Hell, they almost openly admitted they killed Kennady, and no one calls for any accountability for even such a thing.

3. Take the internal party democracy, while the record of the Bharat is worst for decade in this, the Dems are going there slowly. Look at how they stopped Burnee in 2016, how Biden brought in in 2020 and how Kalama was made candidate in 2024. The voting rights of party bosses in Presidential primaries make it all; establishment play with the results is already decided internally, and a facade of primaries takes place. GOP is no better. The almost-anointed Bush fellow in 2016 and the entire party set-up have been against DJT. The party's establishment does not allow party agenda even when they have a majority in Congress. Once 2024 is over, even GoP will be like Dems. Are the same things going on in Congressional and Senate elections? Local elections? One can be pretty sure of that. It is the party machinery that rules in both parties. Once you get the party ticket, you get party votes and win. That is how Kamala and her supporters want to win.

[Roop]

Mailing Ballots is Complete Prone to Fraud

Absolutely! That is precisely why Democrats are so keen on them. They played a big part in the swing-state (PA, GA, AZ) Democrat "victories" of 2020, and their plan is obviously to repeat this fraud in 2024 in all swing states (WI, MI, PA, VA, GA, AZ, NV).

It is anyone's guess as to the extent to which they will succeed. If I thought the electoral environment this year was the same as in 2020, I would say that the Democrats are guaranteed victory through fraud. But the environment is NOT the same -- in comparison to 2020 (or even 2022), Republicans are much stronger and Democrats much weaker. But still the swing-state polls are essentially tied. It is impossible to tell, from the outside looking at what is essentially a sealed black box, which way the broad electorate is leaning. I was just reading an analysis of this a few minutes ago entitled "Schrödinger's Election", which I thought was a clever and accurate way of capturing the inherent uncertainty of things. This uncertainty will remain long past Nov. 5. If the Republicans have a team of competent brains in charge of their side (something which is always in doubt), they will have vast gangs of lawyers ready to go to court and fight aggressively and tenaciously from Nov 1st all the way to Jan 20th.

Mail-in Ballots are complete RUBBISH and should be stopped period !!

Agreed, but that is easier said than done, in fact it is very hard to do. You can't pass a federal law banning them, because Democrats control the White House and the Senate. No such law will pass federally. At the state level, only the swing states matter, all other deep-colored states (deep Red or deep Blue) are sort of irrelevant, because their votes are not in doubt. The swing state legislatures are controlled by one party or another. Democrat-controlled swing state state legislatures (WI, MI, PA, NV) will never ban MIBs (mail-in ballots), because they are the very bread and butter of Democrat voting ground game.

[Roop]

Should Trump win PA, the governor may not certify the presidential election by 11 DEC 2024. He may be forced to by courts, then Harris as the president of the Senate will not certify by 06 JAN 2025.

The situation you are portraying (I have heard it many times already, from other sources) is absolutely horrendous, and somewhat realistic. No reasonable person can rule it out, saying "No, no, the Democrats are not that corrupt or reckless, they would never try that". Whether they try it or not (under the circumstances you described) would depend entirely on whether they assessed that the American public would meekly acquiesce to such gargantuan corruption. But the public may not meekly acquiesce -- there may be a second Boston Tea Party or perhaps a second Fort Sumter.

[Mort Walker]

Roopji,

Trump is opposed by not just Dems, but Reps who are part of the establishment (deep state).

If Trump doesn’t lose outright, or if a particular state disqualified his win, then 14th Amendment will be used by US Senate to disqualify Trump by simple majority. This is before the new session starts 21st January. Anyone who talks about rebellion will be crushed. The US has become a police state.

I’m of the opinion that the establishment will not allow a Trump presidency under any cost. “We’re not going back” has real meaning.

[vijayk]

What I realized after abuses, gaalis, insults by crazy partisans on both sides, it is pointless to discuss any thing meaningful on US politics.
Some comic relief.


https://www.amazon.com/Achievements-Kam ... 116&sr=8-1

This 191 blank pages book is #1 Best seller list on amazon

#1 Best Seller in Media & Internet in Politics

[bala]

Vijayk ji, that is hilarious, very apt for empty-headed Kamala, all handled by Gehra Rajya of the US. Her cackling sound would turn the 191 pages for free. There is no need for election tamasha in the US. WE RUN THE US and THE WORLD CONFLICTS - Gehra Rajya certified!

[Vayutuvan]

... Local elections? One can be pretty sure of that.

Yag gaaru, I agree with everything you wrote except for the local elections. They have a different dynamic. Folks are a lot more informed about local elections and local politicians/DAs/Sheriffs/Judges/School board members than national politics. The problem with the 24 hour news channels is that they focus mostly on national politics while local and state level politics has the most impact on people's day to day lives.

Local services - LEOs, Judiciary, Schools, parks and recreation, road maintenance, public services, shelters for the homeless, firefighting, and a whole slew of other services that make life smooth.

[Vayutuvan]

Some (even after being blocked) make it a point to paste in my posts when logged out and then reply to them. Overall, I get a very poor impression of such posters.

KLXD ji, blocking on BRF doesn't work the way you seem to think it does. It is not like X (formerly Twitter). There when you block someone, that someone can neither see you posts nor reply/repost to you. On BRF, when block a user, you won't be able to see that user's posts. But the blocked user can see your posts and can reply to you. That user doesn't need to log out, paste, and then reply to you.

IDK whether you blocked me or not. But I am able to reply to you without logging out. Only you and mods know who you blocked. You don't know who blocked you.

FYI

[sanman]

[sanman]

[vijayk]

https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1843420599307382973

If Dems wins, Hillary & Obama will make sure this guy's dead body is not even found

[vijayk]

[disha]

What I realized after abuses, gaalis, insults by crazy partisans on both sides, it is pointless to discuss any thing meaningful on US politics.

I urge you to walk back the above statement. The thread is on US Election watch and is absolutely necessary. There are other threads where you can indulge in your judgements, maybe you are political genius like Chanakya. However this thread is to document the malpractices and the issues in US elections.

If you cannot bring yourself to see the issues, maybe you are partisan. However I encourage you to look at the list. Proof for all the items in the list exist. There are couple of more items to be added in the list. You can either help with the list or get additional proof for any items in the list.

[1] Voter LIst manipulation either via exploiting broken processes or putting in broken processes with an end goal
[2] Changing requirements or relaxing requirements of ID proof
[3] Lawfare. Embroil the opposing candidate into multiple and frivoulous law suite. Proceed to character assassination
[4] Lawfare on the own vocal leaders. Bring out spurious corruption charges against vocal party leaders
[5] Cancel culture and de-platforming. Prominent leaders critical of the incumbent are deplatformed and canceled, particularly when lawfare does not work
[6] Curtail free speech. All parody videos critical of the incumbent are banned for example
[7] Interference and control the narrative. Social media platforms and media platforms are brow beaten if they cannot be bought
[8] Intimidate the judiciary itself!
[9] Character assassination. For example calling someone a toadie
[10] If all of the above does not work, ASSASSINATION

Added later: Thanks for the humour though.

And Indians (Indians world over, including Indo-Americans) need to wake out of the slumber and realize that Indian elections are conducted superlatively. I just wish that the oldest democracy come to it. It is important, since there are only two real large democracies. 25% of the world population is directly impacted and 75% of the world population is indirectly impacted in first level and all of the world is indirectly impacted in second level (yes, that includes a farmer in Chile and the aborigine in Australia). European states that talk of democracies are either too tiny or at most mid sized.

Hence keep a close watch on the shambolic US elections. The list is above. Please add to the above list or add more proof of the same.

[disha]

My conclusions are reasoned, but instead attract all manner of boorish,

New word we will hear from all the ElLeLi networks I am sure, just like "wierd".

Deplorable, Wierd & now Boorish.

Most of the Indian americans rooting for Kamala remind me of the old goats masticating and agreeing that the dentures do not quite fit the way it used to be and hence the new kids on the block need to learn how to behave. And now the new kids are challenging their hoary shibboleths without any regard to their so-called angrez ke jamane mein achievements. This aggravates their problem even more, since they cannot chew on new facts quickly.

The problem with their dentures, they forget, is that the severe bone loss that occurs when they lose all teeth, does not allow it for any grip on facts & narratives. That is they are losing the grip on the narrative and control of how things have to be conducted and on top of it, they are losing grip of reality. And that is what really scares them. Hence those words. But then the kids on the block actually love those epithets.

A real life example, when Musk took over twitter, lot of them went on to Mastodon, where they are masticating oblivious of security and monitoring concerns!

[Mort Walker]

Somehow the major polling institutions haven’t done polling in the battleground states in the month of October. Almost all of them end on 9/29. In September, polling was happening weekly, but now, less than a month away, polling has slowed down in a very close race. I don’t see a rational explanation of this.

[vijayk]

What I realized after abuses, gaalis, insults by crazy partisans on both sides, it is pointless to discuss any thing meaningful on US politics.

I urge you to walk back the above statement. The thread is on US Election watch and is absolutely necessary. There are other threads where you can indulge in your judgements, maybe you are political genius like Chanakya. However this thread is to document the malpractices and the issues in US elections.

If you cannot bring yourself to see the issues, maybe you are partisan. However I encourage you to look at the list. Proof for all the items in the list exist. There are couple of more items to be added in the list. You can either help with the list or get additional proof for any items in the list.

You can't have any rational arguments on politics anymore. Examples

Abortion

RW wants no abortions or 4 weeks at most. LW wants to have till birth. Youn. can see the radicalism in Republcians and Kamala/Waltz. If you try to moderate, you are abused as scum who wants to control women's life or a baby killer

ID issue

Very commonsense to check ID for registration and voting. Total rejection. Only things that left to discuss on left is voter suppression.

There is no common ground on any issue. You are advised to go and get get therapy or called name.

[sanman]

[Roop]

Trump is opposed by not just Dems, but Reps who are part of the establishment (deep state).

Hi Mortji,
Agreed. As far as TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) goes, both parties are guilty, but the scope of the problem is vastly different in both parties. Only a small percentage of Repubs suffer from TDS, but a vast majority of Dems do.

If Trump doesn’t lose outright, or if a particular state disqualified his win, then 14th Amendment will be used by US Senate to disqualify Trump by simple majority. This is before the new session starts 21st January. Anyone who talks about rebellion will be crushed.

Whether the Dems are able to do this or not depends on the outcome of the US Congressional elections (House and Senate). Members of Congress are sworn into office in early January, at least 2 weeks ahead of the Presidential and VP swearing in. If the Dems win both House and Senate (a truly dreadful scenario to contemplate) then what you suggest is very possible, in fact likely. (Remember, at that stage in early January Kamala Harris would still be VP, even if Trump/Vance win in November). So, in fact, Dems would be boldly and shamelessly spitting in the face of the voters if they tried this. It would definitely be fascism. Would the voters meekly put up with this? I don't know, but it seems highly unlikely to me, that's why I spoke of the Boston Tea Party and/or Fort Sumter.

The US has become a police state.

My only quarrel with this statement is the "has become" part, i.e. you are saying that the rot / degeneration is complete and there is no turning back to sanity. I think it is more accurate to say the US is moving in the direction of a police state, i.e. "is becoming" rather than "has become". A cure to this madness is still possible, even at this late stage, there are many hopeful signs.

[Mort Walker]

Sanman-ji,

Betting markets can be manipulated & it doesn’t take the place of good polling with a large sample size. Right now, polling in GA, AZ & NV is good, but in the rust belt underestimates Trump’s strength. Trump is doing better in all battleground states compared to 2020, but polling hasn’t improved in the rust belt. National level polling means little at this point. It’s the Electoral College count.

[Mort Walker]

Roop-ji,

As of now, Romney, Murkowski & Collins are likely to side with Dems on using the 14th Amendment to decertify any potential Trump win. This may lead to a constitutional crisis.

[vijayk]

All the democrat firends used to send these market info when Kamala was favored. What use are these

[Roop]

... Romney, Murkowski & Collins are likely to side with Dems on using the 14th Amendment...

Romney won't be in the Senate in the new year (he's not running for re-election). Collins and Murkowski ... I don't know. They are sort of left-of-centre and don't like Trump, but they are not insane. Especially Murkowski would have to keep in mind the sensibilities of her voters -- Alaska has a strongly Republican electorate, who are likely to vote for Trump / Vance by huge majorities. No elected politician in her right mind can afford to simply ignore this message from the voters. Collins is a slightly watered-down version of the same. Of course Maine is a very different state than Alaska, but not that different. I don't think she will be that reckless as to do it.

This may lead to a constitutional crisis.

"May lead" ??!! No kidding. It absolutely WILL lead to a constitutional crisis, and a serious one at that (I'm not talking of flag waving protests on The Mall in Washington DC). I have already cited two possible examples from American history, I won't say any more.

[Mort Walker]

Most recent polling by Real Clear Polling shows Trump holding or slightly improving in the battleground states, but it remains in the MoE.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... -vs-harris

The race is just too close to call. Next week, we'll know if the slight improvement of Trump's poll numbers reflects a tightening race as seen in the past, or if this is just anomaly/error in polling. Nate Silver, FWIW, said that in 2020 Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster.

[saip]

OK, guys, today I received my ballots by mail for me and my wife. No one stole them. I will fill them, seal them, sign them and put them back in my mail box with the flag up and they will be picked by the mail person and delivered to the election office to be counted with the rest of the ballots. Easy peazy, lemon squeezy. They have to be post marked by Nov 5 and must be received by 12th to be counted. Once done, at least our two votes will be legitimately cast and so no rigging. This is my ninth rodeo (18th if counting off years). Proud to do my duty for protection of democracy.

[Mort Walker]

saip-ji,

Are you enclosing a copy of your driver’s license and has your inner ballot envelope been notarized? If not, it is subject to mischief.

[saip]

Thanks, but no thanks. That is surest of way rigging an election - having your ballots thrown out for breaching the confidentiality rule.

[Mort Walker]

saip-ji,

It doesn’t breach confidentiality. Your ballot is inside a 2nd envelope. It is notarized without anyone but you seeing the contents. Your ID signifies that your vote is legitimate. Several states require that you provide a copy of your driver’s license & have the inner envelope sealed & notarized.

What your state is doing is subject to vote fraud.

[bala]

Mailed ballots can be easily subjected to fraud. All mailed ballots have a circle fill in to pick your candidate. The paper is fed into automated system to read the fill in marked. These mail in ballots are supposed to be signed at the back of the envelope. No Govt official sits and eye balls such stuff. People are living in la la land if such a thing happens. There are so many ways to defraud the system at the office which receives them and feeds into automated machines to read your votes. They can throw out your ballot and feed their own filled in paper as standard for all the mailed in stuff. No one is monitoring these characters in the office of the govt. All blue states indulge in these shady practices. This is actual voter suppression willfully done by the govt apparatus. No court cases, no evidence, nothing can be proven.

[Mort Walker]

^^^California is most notorious. Supermajority of one party in the state for the last two decades. WB didi would have wet dreams of getting such an opportunity,

[Vayutuvan]

saip-ji,

It doesn’t breach confidentiality. Your ballot is inside a 2nd envelope. It is notarized without anyone but you seeing the contents. Your ID signifies that your vote is legitimate. Several states require that you provide a copy of your driver’s license & have the inner envelope sealed & notarized.

What your state is doing is subject to vote fraud.

In CA, it doesn't matter. Saip ji has made it clear that they will be voting for ... err ... whatever. But Harris is going to win there. It is a given. Dems are 67% and GOPers are 33% in that state.

[saip]

saip-ji,

It doesn’t breach confidentiality. Your ballot is inside a 2nd envelope. It is notarized without anyone but you seeing the contents. Your ID signifies that your vote is legitimate. Several states require that you provide a copy of your driver’s license & have the inner envelope sealed & notarized.

What your state is doing is subject to vote fraud.

My dear Mort,
You are confused. You are conflating the voting in an HOA perhaps (where you DO have TWO envelopes). In CA there is only ONE envelope. Trust me I am looking at at. You fill the ballot and stuff it in the envelope, sign it and put it in your mailbox (if you have one) and put the flag up so that the mail carrier will pick it up. What am I going to notarize? Why spend $20 on that when it is NOT needed and does not serve any purpose. Sure as hell there is a possibility of rigging. Since when is possibility equal to CERTAINITY (prior to 2020)? There is possibility tomorrow Trump will keel over and die (he is near 80, somewhat senile and obese, probably diabetic and could have heart attack) but it is not probability least of all a certainty. These ballots were addressed to me and my wife and that they were received by us is proof enough that they are intended for us.
I can not put an identying mark on the ballot it self or it will be thrown out. But there is a loop hole. I can write my name or even your name (in CA it does not matter as Trump will not win in CA in a month of Sundays) in as candidate for POTUS. Even then the polling agent who processes through a machine will not be able to match the ballot with me. Once the envelope is opened (after matching the signature) and discarded the ballot becomes anonymous. There are lines and blocks on the ballot, but I do not believe they can actually match the ballots with us. In fact i am going to swap my wife's ballot with mine and track them just to prove a point.

[saip]

saip-ji,

It doesn’t breach confidentiality. Your ballot is inside a 2nd envelope. It is notarized without anyone but you seeing the contents. Your ID signifies that your vote is legitimate. Several states require that you provide a copy of your driver’s license & have the inner envelope sealed & notarized.

What your state is doing is subject to vote fraud.

In CA, it doesn't matter. Saip ji has made it clear that they will be voting for ... err ... whatever. But Harris is going to win there. It is a given. Dems are 67% and GOPers are 33% in that state.

You are 100% correct. Last time when Clinton was the candidate I voted for the other lady and Clinton still won in CA.

[saip]

^^^California is most notorious. Supermajority of one party in the state for the last two decades. WB didi would have wet dreams of getting such an opportunity,

If you look at the political of the USA, it is ALL red in the middle. Only east coast and west coast states are blue and that is where many people live. Did not Swartzneggar win in CA only few years ago till 2011? In NY too we had Republican for Governor Pataki for 12 years till 2006.

[Mort Walker]

saip-ji,

I’m happy your HOA is more secure than your state. In my case, my HOA will accept my vote as a text message.

States where secure mail-in or absentee balloting is done, you make the request, get an envelope package in the mail containing your ballot, inner envelope, notarization form, and outer mailing envelope. If you fill the inner envelope with anything other tha n your ballot, it is considered as violating state election law. The outside of the inner envelope has your name & address and must match the photo copy of your ID & notarization form.

Presidential elections don’t matter unless one is in a battleground state. What does matter are local elections & state questions. Hopefully you’ll soon get to do mail-in ballots for CA caste equity questions or at least vote for your favorite jehadist to bring caste equity to CA.

[Vayutuvan]

Why spend $20 on that when it is NOT needed and does not serve any purpose.

What? Notaries charge $20 in CA? Par for the for the course I suppose. We have notaries at the public library who do it for free or maybe a dollar. You can also go to your bank where they will notarize for free. You shouldn't worry about gas, dear saip gaaru, as you have a Tesla. You have been laughing to the bank all these days (what my Tesla owning CA friend told me a few years back).

[saip]

There he goes again! Notarization COSTS $20 in CA. Why bother? If you can not prove rigging in a Court of Law I say there is no rigging. Out 66 cases filed 65 were thrown out and only ONE partially agreed to but nothing that directly affected the result. These are not cases filed by run of the mill attorneys but by top of the line companies who charge thousands of dollars per hour. They could not prove a damn thing. Judges are Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Trump's AG said no rigging that affected the polls, his own FBI Director said no rigging (Biden did not fire him - he still continues). I put all these rigging claims in the same category as Martians, big foot, yeti, Lochness monster and flat earth society people.

[saip]

Why spend $20 on that when it is NOT needed and does not serve any purpose.

What? Notaries charge $20 in CA? Par for the for the course I suppose. We have notaries at the public library who do it for free or maybe a dollar. You can also go to your bank where they will notarize for free. You shouldn't worry about gas, dear saip gaaru, as you have a Tesla. You have been laughing to the bank all these days (what my Tesla owning CA friend told me a few years back).

I filled by ICE car twice this year! With my solar plates and at home charging my Tesla is running for free.

[Vayutuvan]

I filled by ICE car twice this year! With my solar plates and at home charging my Tesla is running for free.

Where is that $20 cost coming from? It is not for gas to go to the notary!!!

[Mort Walker]

saip-ji,

Notarization is free in many banks/CUs for people who have an account. For millionaires like yourself, bankers will accommodate you. With BoA you can schedule online for a notary.

https://www.bankofamerica.com/signature ... es/notary/

My wife’s and my ballots should arrive next week. I will get notarization easily done for free at my CU. My kids are ardent Dems, but as they get older are unsure of the party & not planning on voting. I told them to vote on local questions & state races, then leave POTUS selection blank.