2021 Five State Elections

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2021 11:25

BJP will lose onlee.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 02 May 2021 11:27

williams wrote:Irrespective of who wins in Bengal, BJP got 3 seats 2016. It is still a major achievement.

Sir, if the TMC wins their goons will wreak terrible vengeance on the BJP karyakartas on the ground.

Karyakartas are all-in on this election. Without BJP control of the state machinery and police, it will be a bleak 5 years ahead for them.

We need to WIN here. Merely a strong showing is not enough.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 11:27

Still one more hour before we can see any definitive trend.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 May 2021 11:29

sudarshan wrote:Can a person lose the seat and still be CM?

News18 is showing 137 for TMC and 85 for BJP. So is the Quint.

ECI, the definitive site, shows 58 for TMC and 33 for BJP out of 92. All leads, no wins.

yes

IIRC, they have to get elected within 6 months of swearing in

she will/can easily get someone from TMC to resign a safe seat and stand from there

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 May 2021 11:30

Shaktimaan wrote:
williams wrote:Irrespective of who wins in Bengal, BJP got 3 seats 2016. It is still a major achievement.
Sir, if the TMC wins their goons will wreak terrible vengeance on the BJP karyakartas on the ground.

Karyakartas are all-in on this election. Without BJP control of the state machinery and police, it will be a bleak 5 years ahead for them.

We need to WIN here. Merely a strong showing is not enough.

Hindus will have a terrible time in WB.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 11:33

If Shuvendu defeats Mumtaz Banoo handsomely then he will stand tall, and will lead the BJP's charge against the marauding jihadists.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 02 May 2021 11:33

How many election cycles it took for TMC to defeat CPI-M ?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 May 2021 11:36

There is very little anti-incumbency against TMC in urban, semi-urban areas. Almost the entire M vote from INC-Left has shifted to TMC. Bhadralok is still averse to BJP and has staid with TMC. Expect more appeasement. Big setback for NRC and national interest.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 May 2021 11:37

williams wrote:Irrespective of who wins in Bengal, BJP got 3 seats 2016. It is still a major achievement.

mumtaz bano's national ambitions will have evaporated into thin air. No one will consolidate around her now, as she had expected with a massive win going in to the next gen elections as well as some of the major state elections.

that was one of her major objectives in these elections

leaves the field clear for also ran aspirants like pawar and pappu among others.

the ropers, it appears from early indications, have consolidated massively and voted for the TMC whereas some of the Hindu votes are still split.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 02 May 2021 11:45

Supratik wrote:There is very little anti-incumbency against TMC in urban, semi-urban areas. Almost the entire M vote from INC-Left has shifted to TMC. Bhadralok is still averse to BJP and has staid with TMC. Expect more appeasement. Big setback for NRC and national interest.

Hindus have again shot themselves in the foot with their mental blindness. Their formula seems to be: "Keep voting for Mamta and take the first train out of Bengal to look for a job in other states." In my company in Delhi, if I advertise for a job, 8 out of 10 resumes I receive are of Bengalis, half of them emailed straight from Kolkata. They will give their right arm to get a job in Delhi or Bengaluru or Mumbai. Most of the Bengali employees in my company are anti-BJP and still cannot comprehend why they are sitting in Delhi to do a job as an economic refugee, and why they couldn't find a job in Kolkata. But it is a matter of pride for them that they are anti-BJP.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 02 May 2021 11:54

Why do we keep forgetting the BD votes. WB election is remote controlled from BD.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 11:59

Also, if TMC gets stuck below 160, then TMC will be broken.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 02 May 2021 12:00

Avinandan wrote:+ 1
So for Bengal, the astrologer was correct after all

Modi/Shah's bad times are apparently till Sep/Oct 2021.. absolutely worst till April, gradually better from May onwards.

Losing WB is not end of the world, set back for sure.. bigger battle was fought and decisively won in 2019.

Hope BJP folks can imbibe the spirit of a Marathi general in the face of certain defeat & slaughter of his troops: ".. agar bachenge to phir Ladenge."

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 May 2021 12:03

I am looking at the margins in WB. Most are low margin leads. So the gap has been narrowed but not enough. But INC-Left is finished in WB.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 12:03

Looks like LF+INC+ISF vote has shifted to TMC. But still too early.
Barely 3 rounds have been counted out of average 17 rounds.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 12:03

Margins are extremely think in most of the seats as I had guessed.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 12:04

Good thing is Mumtaz Banoo is trailing by a handsome margin of 8000 votes.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 12:06

If Mumtaz loses, but TMC wins, then there is a possibility of Mumtaz putting her good for nothing nephew on the throne and rule the state by proxy. But that will see more defection from the party.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 May 2021 12:06

Now I am looking at vote share from ECI. Huge lead for TMC. So people are voting BJP at center and TMC at state.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 May 2021 12:07

Folks:

If Mamata loses Nandigram, that will be like:

1. Army won, General Lost. There will be many many metoo in TMC. Suvendu Adhikari will start having CM aspirations. A giant killer.

2. Operation successful, patient dead. Lutyens media will say waterloo of BJP etc, but remember that MaoMata lost!!!

3. Rona-Dhona will continue on this threads. Even if BJP/NDA wins 555 votes in national elections and all the state assemblies with 2/3rd majority. Not sure what I am smoking.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2021 12:08

So where do we see these margins for Bengal?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 May 2021 12:15

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 02 May 2021 12:19

AIADMK not bad, 83-84, it was expected on low 60-50's. Good Job.

DMK is 111-110 not majority on its own as of now.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 02 May 2021 12:20

WB : https://results.eci.gov.in/Result2021/p ... htm?st=S25

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 12:21

I think DMK: AIADMK is now 130:101.... It's settled.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 02 May 2021 12:26

Kati wrote:I think DMK: AIADMK is now 130:101.... It's settled.

Getting rid of dish antennas near counting centers seem to have paid off..

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 02 May 2021 12:29

Is it safe to now call the election in West Bengal

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 02 May 2021 12:38

vimal wrote:WB : https://results.eci.gov.in/Result2021/p ... htm?st=S25

Its a bloody sweep by TMC, and the bloodshed is going to continue.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 02 May 2021 12:42

2016 TMC won 211 seats. Now still 200+ it seems. Nothing changed, except that BJP is now in distant second position, and is thus highly visible as a sitting duck for the slaughter. And PK might still have the last laugh.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 12:47

AshishA wrote:Is it safe to now call the election in West Bengal

Not at all. We are barely in 25% count mark.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 02 May 2021 12:55

Both Bihar and WB have lot of migrants, the lockdown is hitting BJP hard, Covid has been a god send to INC , Left and related parties. In TN also it has made a huge difference.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2021 12:55

SwamyG wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:
Sir, if the TMC wins their goons will wreak terrible vengeance on the BJP karyakartas on the ground.

Karyakartas are all-in on this election. Without BJP control of the state machinery and police, it will be a bleak 5 years ahead for them.

We need to WIN here. Merely a strong showing is not enough.
Hindus will have a terrible time in WB.

They will, but it will be a less terrible time.

williams · Post by **williams** » 02 May 2021 12:56

Kati wrote:
AshishA wrote:Is it safe to now call the election in West Bengal
Not at all. We are barely in 25% count mark.

Let us wait and see. I remember last MH election was like this. initially BJP looked like sweeping everything and then slowly things went the other way.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 02 May 2021 12:57

There are two ways the perception will be shaped after this election (if the trends hold and BJP stays below 100)

1) BJP made a huge gain compared to last time.
or,
2) TMC emerged victorious against the entire BJP machinery.
2a) BJP risked the nation by dropping the ball on COVID situation for WB elections and does not have anything substantial to show for it.

My money is on #2 and to an extent #2a.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2021 13:00

^^^Only the last two phases were impacted when the 2nd wave began.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 02 May 2021 13:03

Hindus in Bengal and Kerala escape the consequences of their bad voting decisions by migrating out of the state for jobs. This acts like a pressure valve and then they see no need for a BJP managed government back in their states. In addition, they have been brainwashed to keep voting for governments which are openly hostile to Hindu interests, and shun any political party sympathetic to Hindus. No other race will be blind enough to do this.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 13:04

In West Bengal there was no split vote. The UPA alliance parties stepped aside to allow a total consolidation behind TMC.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 02 May 2021 13:09

What options does MAD have now in WB ?
What can they do to cut the Islamists to size?

Let us see ...wait and watch if there are defections.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2021 13:09

BJP will lose onlee.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 May 2021 13:11

Jarita wrote:In West Bengal there was no split vote. The UPA alliance parties stepped aside to allow a total consolidation behind TMC.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.

So the Delhi gameplan was played in W. Bengal. Transfer of vote from CONgoons to TMC. However, here they are losing their queen.

There will be several poachers to TMC now. Leftists. CONgoons.

It will be good to see a 3-way split in TMC.