Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[JE Menon]

Tkiran,

No not unthinkable as the Philippines were not occupying it to begin with. That was one kind of experience and drama, testing the waters.

Same in Doklam. They changed status quo. Then India changed status quo further on behalf of weaker party and not on its own behalf exclusively. Now both reverted to status quo ante. This was another kind of drama and experience, testing scrotal fortitude. Based on outcome, who came out on top? The lesson here was for China to learn.

There's also a lesson for the US: it should have occupied the shoals as well on behalf of the Philippines. For that it needs to get treaties in place if it does not already have them. If it does, then why did it not act on behalf of Manila?

[sum]

A non-jingo shivering article here:
Doklam standoff resolution: India's greatest diplomatic victory in decades

The end of the Doklam standoff heralds quite possibly one of India’s most spectacular diplomatic victories in decades, and like any real victory it does not need shouting from rooftops. From beginning to end, the execution of India’s strategy here has been flawless and has achieved what India always wanted – Status Quo Ante -- and a much-needed counter to China’s salami tactics. The magnitude of the victory is only understood when we realise how crushing a personal defeat for Xi Jinping this actually is.


Xi, clearly identified as the mastermind of this Bhutan gambit, had made a number of assumptions, all of which turned out to be erroneous. The first was the belief that India could be punished for its OBOR Lèse-majesté by weaning Bhutan away from India. The logic was, if Bhutan were sufficiently pressured, it would have to open direct talks with China through embassy, and thereby open itself up to OBOR. The opinion in Beijing seems uniform as to the genesis of this particular showdown – it was in fact Xi putting personal pique over national interest. The net result of him personalising policy has been one of the biggest setbacks that China has faced in recent memory.

What exactly has happened here is that India has not only found the best way to deal with China, but also created a template for other countries to follow. China, while grabbing land, expects other countries to sit by passively and not shoot. What India’s actions have proved is that China too has very few options, if other countries choose to squat on Chinese (or disputed) land. This now lies at the core of Xi Jinping’s problems in Beijing. As his purge of opponents intensifies, to compensate for his visible mismanagement of the economy, the opposition to him within the party is also intensifying. Beijing was full of rumours of the severe criticism he was facing from within the party as a result. Besides, Global Times, with its strident rhetoric, instead of serving as force multiplier, was actually making his situation within the politburo worse by preventing him from covering up his faux pas. Normally, all Xi Jinping would have to do would be to tell GT to tone it down. In this situation, he could not, as any such directive would be picked on by his opponents as a sign of weakness.


Sadly for Xi, even the stars conspired against him. It would have been particularly gut-wrenching for him to host Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit on Sunday, with Indian troops squatting on allegedly Chinese soil – an ironic replay of when his troops were squatting on our soil while Xi was being feted in Ahmadabad. There was also no way to reschedule the 19th party congress of the Chinese communist party, where he is anyway expected to be criticised harshly, albeit in private. This will not just be about Doklam, where his personal pique has led to China’s decades-old bluff on land squatting being called out, but also of what is seen as his personal mismanagement of the Korean nuclear and missile issue and the deployment of an avoidable missile shield that directly endangers Chinese security. At some point, Xi Jinping just decided to cut his losses and prevent this from spiralling into a bigger fiasco. It is to India’s credit that it avoided triumphalism and limited his public loss of face.

What we must recognise here is that his plan would have worked just fine, were it not for the new chutzpah and professionalism across the board in New Delhi – PMO, Military, MEA. Rapidity of response, restraint in words, no hyperbole, no threats, no signs of backing down, conciliation or cowardice, no working at cross purposes – is this the same New Delhi we so love to hate? In the space of a few months, they have successfully stared down a superpower, defended an ally, prevented the entry of Bhutan into the Chinese orbit, discredited the Chinese press with its own people, created a rift between the Chinese press and its leadership, destroyed 30 years of Chinese bluff and countered a tactic people thought could not be countered, gravely weakened China’s paramount leader, and exposed China as a petulant child, while simultaneously reinforcing India’s image as a reliable and sober status quo power.

So, if you think preventing a few kilometres of road being built, and allowing continued Chinese patrols counts as a draw, think again, because this is the clearest case of game, set and match India in modern history – with lots of aces thrown in for good effect

[Aditya_V]

I hope we can some how needle the PLA to keep Soldiers and equipment in Tibet in High numbers during winter. A Paki Siachen style 138 deaths will be big blow. In 1962, the Chinese found an extremely weak Indian defense set up and they took advantage of our weakness, in fact towards the end of the war at Rezang La etc, they found the going tough and cashed in when they were ahead, with the ceasefire on 1 Jan 1949, handing over our lands in Manipur etc India was a weak nation not investing in Military and clearly a political leadership which never understood the situation on the ground and was more interested in Publicly checkmating its Generals and making out of turn promotions. They probably prepared for the conflict since 1959 and in fact used our food supplies to feed their soldiers and attack in Arunachal Pradesh.

[Patni]

Duplicate so post is doklamed!! (sent to trash)

[arun]

For ease of reference a Collection of News Articles, many previously posted, that report India won a great victory against the Peoples Republic of China in the 70 day Doklam faceoff.

A. Doklam: How India refused to play Chinese checkers, and won:

Times Of India

B. Doklam standoff resolution: India's greatest diplomatic victory in decades : Clearest case of game, set and match India in modern history, with lots of aces thrown in for effect:

Business Standard


C. China Miscalculated How To Handle India, Allowed Face-Saving Exit

NDTV

D. Elephant tramples Dragon's ego under its feet:

DNA

E. Doklam disengagement: a victory for India, but China won't forget this:

Catch News

[schinnas]

SSridhar ji,
Congratulations on yet another accurate prediction. Did you factor in North Korea factor into this. Both SCS tensions and North Korea-US spat seems to have reduced the leverage Cheen had.

[SSridhar]

That was the correct prediction, but may not be the correct thing to do.

But the Han never showed eagerness to resolve the issue amicably, from the beginning it was us asking (begging) for diplomatic solution for military stand-off. I thought under Modi/Doval it's going to be a different ball game. But as predicted by you, in our eagerness to peace at any cost, we chickened out, but still it's very difficult for me to accept that Han have CHOSEN not to fight, it's we that gave them in platter a face saver. May be India has not yet arrived. Not yet....

TK, how did you come to these two conclusions?: we were for a diplomatic solution only and that we were 'begging'?

Nothing that I have seen so far suggests either or both of your above conclusions. I think we should go back and re-read the posts here from the beginning of this stand-off because in a fast-moving scenario, we tend to forget or overlook so many things. I have been doing that for the last two days.

Everyone here agrees that the Chinese should be given a slap across the face. The slap need not necessarily come from a skirmish or a war alone. It would have been jolly-good (as Gen. Padmanabhan said to the Pakistanis) had it been the skirmish or war too. I am sure that in the weeks & months to come, we will have more 'pertinent' information. If the French Revolution itself is 'too early' to be analyzed, we have to wait for some time for Doka La.

The question right now is whether the latest resolution is a slap or not.

I consider this as a slap for the following reasons:

1. The dragon breathed fire issuing threats. We simply ignored them without even responding. I consider this as the tightest slap. The state-controlled media was set upon India with ferocity but we mockingly brushed them off. The Chinese would have got the clearest message today that this tactics is now passe as far as India is concerned.
2. The dragon issued war threats right at the beginning. Drills were supposed to have been conducted but we knew that at least one of them was a fake, photos from much earlier exercises. But, for two months, they didn't even send their troops for high-altitude acclimitization. We pricked their balloon right there.
3. The petty-minded and arrogant Chinese behaviour has shown up its lack of capabilities to achieve its dream of being the 'only superpower'. I think the Chinese have been stripped to their bones. They now need to stongly and immediately review their 'Three Warfares (3Ws)' because neither legal nor media and psy-ops worked at all.
4. The Chinese might not like to remember or recall Nathu La or Sumdorong Chu. Other nations, particularly Asian, might not have paid much attention to these developments in those days. But, they have been watching intently now. They now know what happened in Doka La. They will not be overawed by Chinese threats anymore. This weakens the 'mighty' Chinese. That is the takeaway from Doka La.
5. I certainly feel that the resolution enhances India's prestige considerably at least among Asian nations that have been looking up to India to provide leadership in stopping the Chinese juggernaut.

[SSridhar]

Did you factor in North Korea factor into this. Both SCS tensions and North Korea-US spat seems to have reduced the leverage Cheen had.

No, I didn't.

IMHO, neither of them affected the Doka La issue.

I feel, like the Chinese, that the US would not attack NoKo unless it really does something very silly with the US. The Chinese are calibrating the NoKo actions very carefully, always keeping it under the boiling point but simmering. Also, the Chinese are constantly demanding the Americans to talk it over (exactly opposite to what they were telling us in our crisis) and therefore the talks avenue has not been exhausted. because the Chinese are controlling the crisis, they have a handle over that and didn't lose the leverage at any time in spite of US bluster. In Doka La, the Chinese lost the handle because they didn't expect us to react in the way we did, stepping on to a third country's land to protect them considering the fact that we are always a stickler for propriety, international laws/conventions etc.

The SCS tension is, as the Tamil saying goes, 'Nithya Kandam Poorna Ayusu' (My life is at stake every moment but I am also blessed with a long life). This is a long festering wound .

[Singha]

[Singha]

[Singha]

[Deans]

slight correction Ramana. Stalin did not kill Beria. Beria was arrested by none other than Marshall Zhukov after stalin died.And than he was executed but not by stalin.

Stalin had started undermining Beria in the years before Stalin's death. In 1946 Abakumov had replaced Beria as head of the NKVD - Beria remained Interior minister. Its speculated that Beria had a hand in Stalin's death in 1953, as he and the rest of Stalin's inner circle feared being purged otherwise.
I don't think the dynamic will be very different in the case of Eleven and his politburo.

[arun]

For ease of reference a Collection of News Articles, many previously posted, that report India won a great victory against the Peoples Republic of China in the 70 day Doklam faceoff.

A. Doklam: How India refused to play Chinese checkers, and won:

Times Of India

B. Doklam standoff resolution: India's greatest diplomatic victory in decades : Clearest case of game, set and match India in modern history, with lots of aces thrown in for effect:

Business Standard


C. China Miscalculated How To Handle India, Allowed Face-Saving Exit

NDTV

D. Elephant tramples Dragon's ego under its feet:

DNA

E. Doklam disengagement: a victory for India, but China won't forget this:

Catch News

Two more to the collection of news articles that India tamed the Peoples Republic of China and won at Doklam:


F. Doklam Resolution: China Eats Crow, Indian Stock Goes Up:

News 18

G. China got it horribly wrong on Doklam, India stands vindicated; here how[/url]:

Financial Express

[Singha]

beria was arrested in carefully choreographed manner as in suddenly in cabinet meeting kruschev and others jump up and denounces him as counter revolutionary and then no less than marshal zhukov with a squad of guards burst in and hauled him to trial before marshal konev who signed off on death sentence.

in systems like cheen and russia the fall from grace can be as sudden and meteoric as the rise. democracies have checks and balances to ensure that does not happen either up or down.

[arun]

[Deans]

IMO China has a limited window of opportunity to hurt India and that window will be closed from 2019. It is therefore a strategic victory for India
as they have prevented China from causing damage at a time India is weakest relative to China. From now on, India will keep getting stronger and China weaker for the following reasons:
China:
1. The economy is increasingly vulnerable (unsustainable debt, going to build useless assets) and the longer they avoid taking corrective measures
the harder the crash will be. I don't see the present model of the Chinese economy lasting beyond the next 12 months.
2. There will be pushback on China's territorial claims, from Japan or SCS Countries, with the backing of the US. It will be a combination of too much Chinese aggression, mounting pressure on DT to be assertive on China and loss of patience by the affected countries.
3. More countries will realise the OBOR/CPEC etc are money lending rackets with Pathani rates of interest and there will be push-back, particularly when dictators/generals/weak leaders who cut their country's deal with China are no longer in power. That exacerbates China's economic fault lines
4. Likliehood of US trade war with China and/or pressure on NoKo, where China will be the loser.

In India's case, we get progressively stronger because;
1. 2019 will see a 2nd term for the NDA with a majority in the Rajya Sabha AND in power in the majority of states. If they cant threaten India
now, why would GOI possibly feel threatened after 2019.
2. Key acquisitions for the services start coming in. Gaps in Ammo supply etc would be addressed to a significant extent.
3. Anti India forces get weakened. No 5th Column for China to exploit.
4. China becomes increasingly dependent on the Indian market. Trade sanctions will be a tap that India can turn off and on depending on
how accommodating China is, on our strategic concerns.

[RCase]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Br1OmlerEWg


Watch around 19:20 where a lizard analyst talks about NSG as a peace offering for OBOR!

[Deans]

Watch around 19:20 where a lizard analyst talks about NSG as a peace offering for OBOR!

There are no lizard analysts. Only spokespeople for the Chinese foreign ministry (with vely few exceptions among the Indian analysts)

[nam]

The congratulations should be given to the Indian Army, not the jokers in MEA.

It was the 12 Indian Divisions on LAC which held the line militarily and diplomatically. Also the show of firmness was due to these divisions.

The PLA was caught pants down as it did not have enough men to counter the Indian forces.

A lesson while reading the op-eds about how Indian Army should be reduced and made "more mobile and light tanks and all.."

[pankajs]

BTW, the one claiming victory loudest are the Bakis.

[TKiran]

SS sir, you have listed all the benefits that we acquired by this military stand-off, nobody is denying or have any difference of opinion about that.

Except ramana sir, nobody has given any explanation of the "face saving" formula offered to Han by India. Ramana sir's reason also that we should not corner an enemy lest there could be an unnecessary war. I agree with that also.

Now let me list the benefits of "if we stayed put".

1. Constant dagger that (పక్కలో బల్లెం) India could cut Han to size by occupying (someone​ suggested me to use the word "liberating" instead of "occupy") Lhasa and thence start the collapse of qing imperial China. That fear could have been a constant factor on Han diplomacy, while dealing with India.

2. All the neighborhood of India would bandwagon with India, as they never faced any resolute repressive strikes whenever they acted detrimental to Indian interest.

3. Enormous respect in international community when dealing with India.

4. Accelerated decline of Han influence worldwide.

5. Constant comparison with China would have been good and can be converted into more investment into India on Indian terms.

6. There was a possibility of keeping the media focus on Doka Lam for atleast 2 years, which could have given more room for bold reforms by the government without much criticism.

7. The Han might have resorted to choose war and got its nose bled.

8. Etc etc

One more straightforward question to you, don't you think that it's India's Dharma to liberate Tibet from imperial Han China (even in future....)? Can we do it if we lose Doka Lam and Tawang?

[pankajs]

^
All of the above achieved by sitting at Doka La so where is you pain point hanji?

India is still sitting at Doka La and will continue to sit at Doka La.

[pankajs]

One more straightforward question to you, don't you think that it's India's Dharma to liberate Tibet from imperial Han China (even in future....)? Can we do it if we lose Doka Lam and Tawang?

China pulled out of Dokalam and India is still sitting pretty at Doka La. THAT is a FACT.

Why will India *lose* Doka Lam and Tawang? We are comfortable at Doka La and Tawang. How will a Chinese pullout from Dokalam lead to a loss of Doka Lam and Tawang?

Are you just throwing together words to form some sentence or rather any sentence?

[TKiran]

One more straightforward question to you, don't you think that it's India's Dharma to liberate Tibet from imperial Han China (even in future....)? Can we do it if we lose Doka Lam and Tawang?

China pulled out of Dokalam and India is still sitting pretty at Twang.

Why will India *lose* Doka Lam and Tawang? We are sitting pretty at Doka La and Tawang.

Sir, you are jumping to the conclusion that Han assurances are going to be implemented in toto.
As far as I am concerned, the issue is not resolved yet. Han are biding their time.

We are now at disadvantage of keeping constant vigilance, and wait for their surprise.

[pankajs]

China pulled out of Dokalam and India is still sitting pretty at Twang.

Why will India *lose* Doka Lam and Tawang? We are sitting pretty at Doka La and Tawang.

Sir, you are jumping to the conclusion that Han assurances are going to be implemented in toto.
As far as I am concerned, the issue is not resolved yet. Han are biding their time.

Last time the Chinese tried to break agreement at Dokalam we stopped them. FACT.
Sir, you are the one jumping to conclusions. FACT. Chinese will do this and Chinese will do that. You are even IGNORING the just concluded episode to make your point.

So WHERE is the confusion?

Let me lay out the scenario for you in DETAIL assuming what you are saying about Chinese breaking the agreement.
1. Chinese break agreement and enter Doklam. IA rolls down to stop them. China agree to withdraw.
2. After a commercial break, Chinese break agreement and enter Doklam. IA rolls down to stop them. China agree to withdraw.
3. After a commercial break, Chinese break agreement and enter Doklam. IA rolls down to stop them. China agree to withdraw.
4. <<Repeat>>
5. <<Repeat>
...
...
n. <<Repeat>>

If we all agree on the above there is no loss at either Doklam or Tawang.

[chola]

I guess the cartoons make me feel a little better but I rather have the MSC rolling into the Tibetan Plateau.

But the nagging, nauseous feeling that we left a monumental military victory on the table persists. We can't willy nilly declare war but here was the perfect opportunity. They threatened war and we should have taken war to them.

In the end what the hell has changed? The PRC propaganda machine is already proclaiming victory because we gave them face.

They have OBOR, CPEC and a thousand other initiatives across the length and breadth of Eurasia, Africa and South America. They have foreign bases planned. They are in heavy in Iran and Greece never mind Pakistan.

A war and a crushing defeat would have slowed their momentum if not put a stop to these plans because it would have diverted their focus and resources into their military and into Tibet. It would have vaulted us clearly over the lizard.

Now, we sit around the next decade or so to see how their plans work out. They have plans, we have hope -- hope that their economy will somehow collapse. Hope is not a proper strategy.

[RCase]

I am pretty annoyed with Indian analysts not countering the Chinese guys on TV when they keep insisting on 1890 treaty between 'China' and Britain. It is almost a tacit admission that Chinese claims have merit. Why can't these guys clearly state that the treaty was between 'Tibet' and Britain. China forcibly occupied Tibet and is considered disputed territory. If they keep insisting, we should ask them to go speak with Britain as Indian government did not sign any treaty with China.

As an armchair analyst, I am ready to pull out the treaty signed by Fa Hien (what? you don't know about that? somewhere in old ASI registers, the British had filed it in triplicate ) acknowledging Indian supremacy over Tibet and parts of China. It is vely kelear that Indians ruled over China. Indian prince Boddhidharma was living in China and spent days staring at the great wall! Not to speak of the Cholas who ruled all over south east Asia and had drawn dash lines all around the Malacca Straits and South China sea on maritime maps.

[SSridhar]

TKiran, all those you listed flow from our actions now too. I would say even more, because we not only stared down China and gave them a bloody nose (literally in 1967 & 1984 but figuratively now), but we also showed supreme maturity and finessed diplomacy to achieve our goals, all the time keeping an impotent China seething and fuming.

China has been shown up for what it is. That PLA is not awesome has been brutally and publicly proved by India. The famed Chinese diplomacy has been skinned. I am tempted to compare this slap to Lord Ram asking Ravan to come back the next day(for a final showdown and destruction) because he has been disarmed, defeated and dismantled for today.

As for dharmic duty, that will come when it has to. Now is not the time, IMHO. When the time comes eventually, we won't be looking for minor advantages here and there as in Doka La or Tawang.

As far as I am concerned, the issue is not resolved yet. Han are biding their time.

This, I agree. That's why I say that this result must be tempered with realism. We must post-haste do many things to fortify ourselves.

We are now at disadvantage of keeping constant vigilance, and wait for their surprise.

This, I don't because even if we had given them a 'military bloody nose', they would be smarting and looking to avenge forcing us to be on constant vigil. A constant vigilance along the LAC has been there for over a decade now.

[williams]

Here is my take on what has happened after this seemingly ambiguous disengagement

Tactical front:
IA has withdrawn 100 meters and has stopped any more Chinese road construction in the Dok la area. IA will be watching from its higher vantage point and can stop construction activities if needed.

Strategic front
Modi govt have gently nudged the Chinese to understand that it is not going to be business as usual. India will aggressively pursue its interests in the LAC and will maintain status quo.

Long term strategy
In spite of the standoff and the military advantages we have in the Himalayas, we need some serious economic and military fire power to keep the Chinese grounded from any middle kingdom adventures.
1. From the military side we need to make sure we can stand on our own legs when it comes to weapons design and manufacturing. We cannot be importing even basic small arms and then claim to be a super power. Modi govt has to seriously pursue make in India goals in the defence sector and seriously reform the ordnance factories. There are some good signs, but major reform is needed in this area.
2. We desperately need good metalled roads, railways and basic infrastructure in the border areas. Troop mobility is still a major concern in Ladakh and AN areas.
3. We need to actively pursue strong diplomatic relationship with US, Japan, SK, Vietnam etc to stop Chinese bullying behaviour.
4. We need to neutralize internal enemies both through democratic means of winning elections and through legal means when there is evidence of criminal treasonous misconduct.

[RCase]

SS - Why are the cheenis suddenly becoming all Paki and worried about H&D? They never gave a damn when they got a ruling against them for the Sea lanes. They have been thick skinned about the shoddy products that they produce. Their impotent army was captured in videos scuffling and throwing stones. Like the Pakis, they want to spin a story of 'victory' when they actually backed down.

[SSridhar]

If they keep insisting, we should ask them to go speak with Britain as Indian government did not sign any treaty with China.

When it comes to McMahon Line, the Chinese do not want to accept the same logic.

The Chinese plenipotentiary accepted the Line and signed the map. His only objection was to inclusion of Outer Tibet !

[ldev]

Heres my next prediction.. PRC will pull this stunt again and this time, at 2-3 places with far more preparation. Hopefully, by then our recent mil-orders will have borne fruit & we will be better prepared for another staring contest.

Its not in the nature of the PRC establishment to accept loss of face. Right now, they have had MASSIVE H&D loss. The fact India stared them down will not go unnoticed in any Asian capital & Indian diplomats/GOI will be the flavor of the season in SoKo, ROC, Japan, Vietnam & Australia.

That will in turn lead to rethinking in Asia countries for FDI in India & building us up as a counterweight to PRC.

Xi will escalate and if he doesn't his domestic position will be precarious.

+1

[SSridhar]

SS - Why are the cheenis suddenly becoming all Paki and worried about H&D? They never gave a damn when they got a ruling against them for the Sea lanes. They have been thick skinned about the shoddy products that they produce. Their impotent army was captured in videos scuffling and throwing stones. Like the Pakis, they want to spin a story of 'victory' when they actually backed down.

RCase, I have a long-standing theory, but I am not too certain about this. Now that you have asked, I will state it.

If you have analyzed Chinese statements about India, we know that they have always been condescending about us. But, long back a Chinese Ming Emperor did indeed seek our help to manage the unruly people in Shangri La and Myanmar-China border. Leaving that aside, this tendency to look down upon us comes from the realistic understanding that we are their greatest rival, if at all. So, the strategy was to constantly snipe at us, put us down and paint us as meek etc. Chinese Empires had constantly dealt only with small countries and therefore an equally big country with equally impressive civilization disturb them.

That shows up everywhere. On the issue of nuclear doctrine and China’s perception of Indian nuclear-weapons and deterrence, the Chinese thoughts appear to be that India is not a major nuclear threat to it because of factors such as the size and capability of its nuclear warheads, delivery systems, its NFU policy, a usually defensive Indian diplomatic outlook, and non-aggressive nature. It also believes that it was India’s hunger for a Great power status coupled with domestic politics that led to the 1998 tests. In other words, China believes that both in capability and intention, India is not a threat. It also believes that the technological gap between the two countries in this field is too wide to be easily bridged by India. See my post on this here. In all the frothing-at-the-mouth-corner articles in Global Times or Peoples Daily, the constant refrain was how Chinese military & economy were many times stronger and how India cannot bridge this chasm.

They fed their people with these tales and because of the absolute state-control over all media, they effectively hide India's progress or incidents such as 1967 Nathu La or 1984 Sumdorong Chu. Or, even the Vietnam debacle to 'teach Vietnam a lesson'.

Any dent in such an India narrative would be detrimental to the carefully cultivated image internally of not only India but China too. Today, they cannot pull a bamboo curtain over flow of information as they used to do before. That's their problem.

[Iyersan]

Ramana Sir,
Can we change the name of the thread to " Managing Chinese Threat" as we have currently already neutered it?

[TKiran]

SS sir, your assessment is spot on, the ordinary Hans living in Han China are totally oblivious to India as a challenger. (Not talking about Han living elsewhere in the world)

[shiv]

Indian troops have pulled back. From where? Any idea anyone?

[nits]

IDRW claims to have Inside story of how India achieved breakthrough in Doklam border standoff with China

The discussion on the breakthrough started when the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met his Chinese counterpart, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, in Beijing during the BRICS meeting in July 27-28. The parleys continued between the two NSAs quietly away from the public glare over telephone lines along with diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Chinese President Xi Jinping and PM Modi had decided that NSA Doval and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi would talk to defuse the tension.

The NSA and his equivalent met and had a long meet in Hamburg. Further movement happened during the Beijing meeting. Foreign Secretary Jaishankar and Indian Ambassador to Beijing Vijay Gokhale took the issue forward. Today Modi who had pushed the be diplomatic but stand firm line received a final briefing before the withdrawal order from Doval. Withdrawal began after flag meeting between 2 colonels of Indian and Chinese army this morning.

Flag meeting will be held in few days to decide on withdrawing from other positions India and China are occupying, according to sources.

After Doklam, Yatung and Phari Dzong are to be cleared after further discussion. Now the Chinese have agreed to not build the road further in the Doklam area and withdraw its troops from there.

[nam]

People need to refer the GE image of the area and specially the photos by the Chini.

How far was the Indian border... 50 meters, 20 meters?

We haven't gone anywhere.

[JayS]

I think India clearly won the pre-resolution phase of the standoff and the stand off outcome. Where we lost is in the MEA statements, which were weak. We gave the Chinese a face saver, and unless the Chinese gave us something in return, there was no need for us to do that. We seem to lack a killer instinct, even when we are in the stronger position. I have to congratulate the Chinese on playing a weak hand well.

Guddu,
There is a Chinese saying that says never corner your enemy and leave them a way out to escape. If you corner then you could have an unnecessary fight.

The challenge of China is its economic strength and not political, diplomatic nor military.

I wrote this 16 years ago in BR Monitor.

GD, There is Kureel cartoon that sums up the situation very well. Any one if possible post it.

KLNM, Please read this. Its not the Chinese script. Its Indian script.

I predict soon China will reform itself.
This is the Battle of Vienna moment.

Brilliant assessment ramana. Yes, many expected that India will give a way out to China. This serves a purpose for us. It shows that we have intent to "act" on any bravado from the other side but at the same time we are a responsible and reasonable power. Perception matters in geo-politics. Everyone who understands even very basics of geo-politics knows this is Indian victory. This is 3rd loss of China in diplomatic circles after the NSG and OBOR related matters, and perhaps the biggest in decades. Like pakis they tried to be tactically smart but strategically fools, under-estimating Indian reposnse and they had their H&D thrown down the gutters. Now they are back with their tail tucked between their hindlegs. But they will come back. We shouldn't let our guard down. We should use this opportunity to start tightening the screws on every front. It seems finally GOI has woken up to the economic front against China. Lets hope we move forward steadily and surely.

[JayS]

IDRW claims to have Inside story of how India achieved breakthrough in Doklam border standoff with China

The discussion on the breakthrough started when the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met his Chinese counterpart, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, in Beijing during the BRICS meeting in July 27-28. The parleys continued between the two NSAs quietly away from the public glare over telephone lines along with diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Chinese President Xi Jinping and PM Modi had decided that NSA Doval and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi would talk to defuse the tension.

The NSA and his equivalent met and had a long meet in Hamburg. Further movement happened during the Beijing meeting. Foreign Secretary Jaishankar and Indian Ambassador to Beijing Vijay Gokhale took the issue forward. Today Modi who had pushed the be diplomatic but stand firm line received a final briefing before the withdrawal order from Doval. Withdrawal began after flag meeting between 2 colonels of Indian and Chinese army this morning.

Flag meeting will be held in few days to decide on withdrawing from other positions India and China are occupying, according to sources.

After Doklam, Yatung and Phari Dzong are to be cleared after further discussion. Now the Chinese have agreed to not build the road further in the Doklam area and withdraw its troops from there.

I just tweeted - wondering if we have extracted anything for us from this victory. Surely we must have. This could be it.