ks_sachin wrote:
So their strategy was based on faulty intelligence you say?
Anyway what if the Russians had purely concentrated on Donbass and those areas? I wonder if they had avoided the attrition and morale sapping Kiev feint/thrust they may have had a better chance of exploiting the numerical superiority of their arty etc.
With the benefit of some degree of hindsight this is my view on the chain of events:
The 2014 Maidan revolution and regime change were not done just for fun. And Ukranians didn't go along for nothing.
The initial US objective was to prevent Russian hold on Ukraine, torpedo Minsk accords which were signed without US participation, and bring Kyiv under its own influence, which they did using tons of money, promising entry into NATO and EU membership (which means even more free money). In order to accomplish this regime change, stabilise and protect it they fostered militias like Azov, Sector 14 etc.
Once the US friendly regime was in place under Poroshenko, Russia retaliated and annexed Crimea after a referendum which the west refuses to recognise. The objective evolved to weaponise Ukraine to make it a thorn on Russia's side, literally. So NATO interoperability prep-phase was launched and over 25000 soldiers were trained in Ukraine, EU and US. The Azov militias were pacified/used as counter power center to the regime by funding them and letting them indoctrinate youth and swell their ranks. And they were given a free reign to ravish Russophone people in the eastern Donbass region in total disregard of Minsk agreements. Which naturally sought Russian help and were obliged, thus drawing Russia into a Ukrainian civil war. In parallel massive corruption and plunder of Ukraine by US and Europe continued, just consider why this erstwhile insignificant country became a battle ground for a US President's impeachment.
By 2019, AFU became a potent force, Azov where totally legitimised and integrated into AFU as separate regiments, some were dispersed around to mould AFU psyche. Eastern Republics voted massively for elensly since he promised to respect Minsk accords and end the civil war. But the US would have none of it. Azov leaders who surround elensly ensure he is kept on a tight US leash. Now the objective evolved further to scale up the civil war and get Russia involved in a full scale conflict which the US hoped will weaken it and revive NATO which was increasingly seen as useless by EU countries which were secure, well fed, energy supplied and mercantiling as they know best. Meanwhile US MIC was getting despondent for the next cycle of sustained sales. Especially since the Afghan withdrawal.
So to trigger EU out of its stupor, a physically menacing and morally outraging event must happen. AFU dialled up its attacks on Donbass and started creating a huge defensive infrastructure (as Russians are discovering and dealing with now) like a shaped charge pointing east against the Donbass region, with it tip somewhere between Kramatorsk and Donetsk. Mariupol was also reinforced to act as a southern flank support, Kharkiv and Severodonetesk as northern flank supports to fend off land invasions. It looks like Ukraine was being prepared to set up a Cauldron for DNR, LPR forces supported by RA. While all the time continuing shelling and using US supplied javelins to keep the pot boiling. Some views say that AFU was prepared for a major thrust to re-take D & L and expected RA to rush in and then they would draw back an entrap them from north and south flanks - Kharkiv and Mariupol - their doctrines come from somewhere right?! They know RA BTGs are heavily mechanised and thats why the massive clamour and supply for ATGMs since years.
However, Russian forces where mobilised for months along the eastern borders of Ukraine, with their own sig, sat and hum intel had a fairly good idea of whats being prepared. When they were convinced AFU was going to attack imminently ie within a few weeks, they sprung a bigger trap of their own. AFU might not have expected RA thrusts across Belorussian borders towards Kyiv and from all over the eastern semi-circle. RA took out UkrAF and Navy so quickly that before they knew it, Ukr lost all means of supporting land troops. Northern flank was stuck defending Kharkov - the 2nd biggest city. Southern flank was under siege by Russian forces from the east and south heading up from Crimea with total control of Azov sea and no naval challenge.
Additional Ukr forces could not be sent to either flanks since Kyiv was under siege. Mariupol was the hot seat of Ukr/NATO theatre C&C and they're holing out even now from the Azovstal dungeons. At some point of time RA didn't see continued interest in threatening Kyiv and pulled out from there, their initial attempt to take Kyiv in an overnight surprise having failed. But full marks for having tried. Plus they want elensly to be there to sign the treaty whenever it comes, his saintly status is necessary for legitimising the treaty.
Now US has achieved its objective of drawing Russia into a war. What next? While Russia was hoping to make Ukr capitulate with its multi pronged invasion shock and awe, US was hoping to do the same to Russia with shaming and gaming UN resolution and economic sanctions shock and awe. Both miscalculated.
Russians were surprised by the deep rooted anti-Russian sentiment and brainwashed fight until death attitude that Ukr showed and is able to enforce on its troops. US was surprised by Russia's economic resilience and the support it got from so many big countries and the anti-US sentiment it provoked far and wide, and also the unprecedented support it accrued to Putin as its leader.
The fight is now in a chess board late middle game, Russia having some big pieces advantage all of which aren't fully developed, and Ukraine with strong positioning of its knights and pawns in the center, having lost its Queen (Mariupol), rooks and bishops (AF and Navy). But knights cannot travel far and pawns will be ultimately gobbled up. I dont see any Ukr pawns resurrecting into a Queen unless Russia blunders (like a tactical nook or something). And Russian GMs dont blunder that often with all the time on the clock. NATO arms supply may add a few bonus seconds to Ukr clock but cannot alter the positions on the board.
Russia has several options and is able to act at times and places of its choosing and has kept the initiative while seemingly leaving the enter free to occupy. US/Ukr have exposed themselves perilously but won't resign hoping for a miracle.
