India's Command Structure: Nuke Attack Scenario

[Calvin]

I have brought this question up in the past to no real success.<P>The basic question is whether there is any "open source literature" (and references) to how India's command structure is set up.<P>Scenario:<P>There is a nuclear attack on New Delhi during a CCS meeting. The PM, entire Cabinet, All the Chiefs of Staff, President, VP, and most senior party leaders across the spectrum are wiped out. There is tremendous civil unrest in New Delhi in the wake of this attack.<P>There are also attacks on Bombay and Ahmedabad. The civil unrest is only matched by the run on the financial markets.<P>Concomitant with this is an conventional attack across the border in Jammu. Perhaps theatre nukes are employed. There are reports of Pakistani successes, keyed primarily by surprise (and perhaps the use of theatre weapons).<P>The Questions:<P>1. How does the civilian command devolve?<P>2. How does the military command devolve?<P>3. How does the nuclear command and control devolve?<P>4. What could the post-nuclear humanitarian entities be, and how would they operate in the possible scenario where there is no strong centralized governing entity?<P>5. What are the possible impact on the morale of the army in immediate wake of the unretaliated nuclear attack on India?<P><BR>

[Prof Raghu]

Civilian chain of command:<P> - can someone provide links to site(s) which have the GoI protocol list? (I know I have seen it in the past, perhaps even from the main (old) BR site itself.<P>- surely it should include cabinet members - after the PM, Deputy PM, RM, FM etc., wrt other ministers, is it based on seniority? (as an MP?)<P>- then, is it like speaker pro-tem, where the senior most MP comes in line next? (and so on down)<P> - then, do state governors / CMs come on? again, seniority?<P>You know, this may not be such a hypothetical thing - I wonder what they do wrt protocol - surely, all this and more must be considered by protocol office of GoI - e.g., when they have a party or something for a dignitary, what order will be followed? such questions, involving multiple level people (central minister, MP, governor, state CM, etc) must have been considered.

[Badar]

Hi,<P>Calvin,<P><I>There is tremendous civil unrest in New Delhi in the wake of this attack</I>.<P>civil unrest in delhi after it has been nuked??? <P><I>The civil unrest is only matched by the run on the financial markets</I><P>Whatever authority is in an position to run the government will ensure that the first thing it does after such an catastrophic attack is to shut down the stock exchanges and limit withdrawals from the banks, atleast for some intial time.<P><I>How does the civilian command devolve?</I><P>AFAIK, this question has not been addressed by the GoI. A good look at US & RF plans in such a senario will provide some insight on what we must do.<P><I>How does the military command devolve?How does the nuclear command and control devolve?</I><P>Ditto, see above.<P><I>What could the post-nuclear humanitarian entities be, and how would they operate in the possible scenario where there is no strong centralized governing entity?</I><P>Read any number of lurid post-catastrophe novels for a fun look at what all could go wrong.<P>If you are really serious on this topic read Herman Kahn's seminal "On Thermonuclear War". It address the issues you have raised, how to preserve national and nuclear command during and after a nuclear attack, economic dislocation due to an attack and measures to ameliorate that etc.<P><I>What are the possible impact on the morale of the army in immediate wake of the unretaliated nuclear attack on India?</I><P>Fear, Anger, Outrage, Dispair...? Large numbers join the army, large numbers desert the army? Who knows, there is no historical precedent.<P><p>[This message has been edited by Badar (edited 06-08-1999).]

[Calvin]

Badar: A nuclear attack on ND will not kill *everybody* -- the survivors will panic. It will be kill or be killed.<P>I am not looking for a "generic" answer -- I already know what that looks like. I am wondering about the specific situation with reference to India. <P>IOW, do we have any structure in place at all. For instance, you say that "someone" will shut the markets down. Who is that "someone" and under what situations does this market shut down happen -- will it happen if we declare conventional war against Pakistan?<P>Raghu: Good ideas for devolution of civilian command. Do you recall anything of the sort from any document? I simply haven't seen this discussion anywhere else.

[Calvin]

ramen_das:<P>1. Civilian Command -- its a good idea that CMs take over in their respective states. How about in the nuked areas?<P>4. Post-nuclear scenario -- I was referring to the immediate post-nuclear scenario. Perhaps there is still a war going on, what do you think will be the progression of command and protocol.<P>5. Impact on the army:<BR>If what you postulate is credible -- is there not a strong incentive to launch a nuclear attack and follow up with a conventional attack. All this on the assumption that a retaliatory strike will come too late to prevent a surrender. Is this a credible scenario to the strategists in Pakistan?<BR>

[Badar]

Hi,<P>Calvin, you are right. Civil unrest brought to mind images of banner weilding agitators - obviously not what you were talking about.<P>That "someone" could be the top surviving chap from the "protocol" list Raghu has mentioned. Or it could be anyone who has seized control. <P>If the top chap on the protocol list happens to be Rabri Devi or some semi-educated deputy assistant sub-minister for agriculture, there will be strong incentive for the military brass to discard the protocol list and take some extra-constitutional liberties - if only for the duration of the emergency.<P>Market shutdowns will happen if the 'whoever' is in authority feels that there is a danger of general run on the market. Such shutdown will last atleast untill the initial hysteria has died down. Yes, it is possible for this to happen even in a conventional war.<P>BTW, I dont think that point 5 is a credible senario for pakistan.<BR>

[S Bajwa]

In an event where all the political leadership is wiped out by a nuke attack. Following is what should happen.<P>1. Any surviving Chief of Army,Air Force or Navy take over. In case that all chiefs are dead.<P>2. There are five Lt. Gens of Army (and other high ranked leaders of AF and Navy) who can take over., and decide to retaliate when,where,how<P>3. Pakistan does not have enough nukes to take out whole Army,Navy and Air Force's leadership.<P>4. If there are enough Missiles and Nukes already mated with missiles at disposal of these Lt. Generals and lower ranks of Defense leadership then there is definetely going to be a retaliation! even if Delhi,Bombay,Madras and Calcutta are wiped out!!<P>Sandeep Singh Bajwa

[Ved]

Ramen_Das,<BR> "IAF is making a big play to grab all the meat. IN is hoping and praying for ATV. IA is sulking." LOL!!! Very neatly (and astutely) put.<P>"How does the civilian command devolve?"<P> I guess in such a situation, things will move smoothly to the military, if only for the reason that I dont think any but a few ppl (and those, consequently, who will be targeted)will be able to look beyond their noses. I know the armed forces are working on a system of redundancy,assuming the loss of all personnel in the targeted city, Thus, if Delhi is hit, then the CAS and Air HQ goes... as also WAC HQ - so SWAC takes over the IAF and hits the ground running... something like that. <P> I also have reason to believe that the one response that everyone is seriously working on is a second strike capability strong enough (and intended)to ANNIHILATE Pakistan... obviously, such a capability has to be visible in order to be an effective deterrent.

[Calvin]

Remember the Sundarji "doctrine" posited at the CASI talks (see the UPENN site), where he indicated that retaliation was "assured" -- but indicated that the time frame in which this retaliation would occur doesn't need to be specified.<P>This was said to take the edge of the comparison to the Western hair trigger scenario.<P>I think time does count. Perhaps to the extent that a retaliatory attack needs to occur within 24 hours.

[Calvin]

up.

[Calvin]

Sareen:<P>If there is a government order of precedence, and it is secret, the following questions arise:<P>(a) Is there an "order of precedence" or is there only one "office" (or person) to whom the power is to be transferred to (presumably temporarily)?<P>(b) IF it is a single person/office, what the occupant is somehow eliminated at about the same time as a nuke attack?<P>(c) Will this "order of precedence" be made public before this person takes over? How do we, the public, know that this is not some cloak-and-dagger coup d'etat?<P>(d) Can you not visualize the possibility of a "struggle for power" between power-hungry politicians/bureaucrats, *because* of this secrecy?<P>(e) Was this decided by Parliament or the Cabinet?<P>(f) What can be so important that it *must* be hidden from the eyes of the ultimate power of the land (i.e., the people)?

[JE Menon]

Thanks for that precious tidbit Eklavya (your name if I remember correctly). Coming from you, very useful confirmation indeed to my general beliefs about our nuke posture.<P>Best Regards<BR>JE Menon

[Calvin]

There is a difference between announcing that we have a contingency plan for continuity of political leadership in the event of a nuclear attack <P>AND<P>Announcing what exactly constitutes that continuity of political leadership.<P>We haven't even had the first step in this yet.<P>In any case there is a wonderful wealth of information on survival of a nuclear attack: <A HREF="http://nwss.entrewave.com/view/nwss/" TARGET=_blank>http://nwss.entrewave.com/view/nwss/</A> <BR>

[Philip]

Here I think is an opportunity for the country's politicians to work together to perfect such a command system as this is not a partisan issue.Whatever govt of the day is in power it will have to face these hard truths as long as we have mentally deranged nuclear neighbours like pakistan.<P>First,what must be done is to set up in every region secure command structures that are safe from any nuclear attack from any nuclear power,capable of riding out the largest nukes in existence.These dispersed HQs should be part of a chain of command,that switches responsibility of th deterrent under it's control automatically if any post is destroyed.If the constitutional hierarchy of succession is destroyed or incapable of functioning due to an attack,the military must automatically take over the strategic forces and launch counter strikes at the enemy/enemies.<P>The role of state govts would be to look after all civilian needs,food,shelters,medicine,maintain law and order along with the armed forces' assistance if required.Emergency,survivable TV and radio stations must be put into action to reassure the population.Each state must have it's own set up for this eventuality that automatically swings into action once the country is attacked.<P>Whatever the details,if we do not plan for it now,we will be looked upon as a nation that can be surprised by a nuclear attack as easily as we were surprised at Kargil.Our intention to set up a survivable chain of command for military and political functioning in such an eventuality must be well publicised-not the details.This will have a dampening effect on our enemies.What the politicians must realise that if we are attacked with nukes,we cannot wait for a debate in the Lok Sabha or any other Assembly to decide upon our response.It must be automatic and that military priorities must come into play immediately.Hunting for political successors to press the button would be insane at that time.

[Badar]

Hi,<P>esareen, it is imperative for everyone to clearly know who is to suceed whom in the event the PM, DefMin etc were neutralised.<P>The problem with keeping it secret is that in the post attack confusion all sorts of 'saviours' will be trying to claim power and it will be difficult to recognise who is legitimate. As calvin has put it "Can you not visualize the possibility of a "struggle for power" between power-hungry politicians/bureaucrats, *because* of this secrecy?". This is a very real danger.<P>By making the succession list long enough you can ensure that not all political heads can be eliminated at the same time.<P>Here I think is an opportunity for the country's politicians to work together to perfect such a command system as this is not a partisan issue.<P>In theory <P>the military must automatically take over the strategic forces and launch counter strikes<P>Very dangerous that. Giving the military autonomous strike capability.<P>Hunting for political successors to press the button would be insane at that time.<P>With all due respect, Not hunting for a political successor to 'press the button' would be criminally insane.<P>BTW, it will be interesting to observe here the measures china has taken to survive a nuclear conflict. I mean measures to preserve tje population and economy not the top leadership.<P><BR>